Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR MN/WI...LOWER MI/IN/OH...NORTHERN VA/MD...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ME...AND FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO SOUTHERN MS... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Texas Coastal Plain to the southern Mississippi. ...MN/WI to the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Gradual pattern amplification is underway, with rising heights over the Rockies and a deepening, downstream trough from MB to the upper Great Lakes. A primary shortwave trough will dig southeastward from ND to WI by tonight, accompanied by cool midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates below the 500 mb pressure level. Surface heating and lingering boundary-layer moisture will contribute to weak-moderate buoyancy in an environment with sufficient westerly deep-layer shear/hodograph length for scattered, low-topped cells to produce isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail this afternoon across MN/WI. Farther east, a lead shortwave trough will move generally eastward from IA/WI toward Lower MI and northwest OH by this afternoon. An associated, weak surface trough/cold front will accompany the midlevel trough into the OH Valley, which will help focus thunderstorm development this afternoon. Pockets of surface heating will boost afternoon temperatures to near 80 F with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s, which will support MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg. However, deep-layer vertical shear will remain rather modest (effective bulk shear 20-30 kt) along with poor midlevel lapse rates around 6 C/km, which suggests that isolated wind damage with multicell clusters will be the main threat. Remnant, convectively enhanced midlevel troughs will move east-northeastward from WV and AL, coincident with the diurnal heating cycle near and east of the Appalachians. Widely scattered storm clusters will be possible this afternoon from GA into the western Carolinas, but poor lapse rates and weak vertical shear will limit any severe threat. Though lapse rates will be similarly poor into the Mid-Atlantic, there will be a zone of stronger low-level shear/hodograph curvature across northern VA/MD in advance of the MCV approaching from WV. Here, a few weakly rotating storms could produce isolated wind damage and a brief/weak tornado. ...TX/LA today... An overnight MCS continues to move southeastward into east TX and LA, though weak vertical shear has led to a cold pool dominated system with the deeper convection trailing well north of gust front. This MCS will likely continue to the northwest Gulf coast by late morning and offshore by early afternoon. There will be some potential for isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts, especially if there is any temporary/diurnal strengthening of the storms. However, the overall environment and convective structure suggest that any wind threat should remain marginal. A few storms may develop farther west this afternoon/evening along the trailing outflow boundary in the area around DRT. Large CAPE/steep lapse rates will support both strong updrafts and downdrafts, though weak vertical shear will generally limit storm longevity and the magnitude of any hail/wind threat. ...ME/NH this afternoon... Downstream of shortwave ridging in the midlevels, a weak northwest flow regime will persist today over northern New England. Lingering low-level moisture, surface heating in cloud breaks southeast of the higher terrain, and very subtle midlevel vorticity maxima will support a few thunderstorms this afternoon across southern/eastern ME and part of NH. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear near 25 kt (with longer hodographs aloft) will be sufficient for semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR MN/WI...LOWER MI/IN/OH...NORTHERN VA/MD...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ME...AND FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO SOUTHERN MS... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Texas Coastal Plain to the southern Mississippi. ...MN/WI to the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Gradual pattern amplification is underway, with rising heights over the Rockies and a deepening, downstream trough from MB to the upper Great Lakes. A primary shortwave trough will dig southeastward from ND to WI by tonight, accompanied by cool midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates below the 500 mb pressure level. Surface heating and lingering boundary-layer moisture will contribute to weak-moderate buoyancy in an environment with sufficient westerly deep-layer shear/hodograph length for scattered, low-topped cells to produce isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail this afternoon across MN/WI. Farther east, a lead shortwave trough will move generally eastward from IA/WI toward Lower MI and northwest OH by this afternoon. An associated, weak surface trough/cold front will accompany the midlevel trough into the OH Valley, which will help focus thunderstorm development this afternoon. Pockets of surface heating will boost afternoon temperatures to near 80 F with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s, which will support MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg. However, deep-layer vertical shear will remain rather modest (effective bulk shear 20-30 kt) along with poor midlevel lapse rates around 6 C/km, which suggests that isolated wind damage with multicell clusters will be the main threat. Remnant, convectively enhanced midlevel troughs will move east-northeastward from WV and AL, coincident with the diurnal heating cycle near and east of the Appalachians. Widely scattered storm clusters will be possible this afternoon from GA into the western Carolinas, but poor lapse rates and weak vertical shear will limit any severe threat. Though lapse rates will be similarly poor into the Mid-Atlantic, there will be a zone of stronger low-level shear/hodograph curvature across northern VA/MD in advance of the MCV approaching from WV. Here, a few weakly rotating storms could produce isolated wind damage and a brief/weak tornado. ...TX/LA today... An overnight MCS continues to move southeastward into east TX and LA, though weak vertical shear has led to a cold pool dominated system with the deeper convection trailing well north of gust front. This MCS will likely continue to the northwest Gulf coast by late morning and offshore by early afternoon. There will be some potential for isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts, especially if there is any temporary/diurnal strengthening of the storms. However, the overall environment and convective structure suggest that any wind threat should remain marginal. A few storms may develop farther west this afternoon/evening along the trailing outflow boundary in the area around DRT. Large CAPE/steep lapse rates will support both strong updrafts and downdrafts, though weak vertical shear will generally limit storm longevity and the magnitude of any hail/wind threat. ...ME/NH this afternoon... Downstream of shortwave ridging in the midlevels, a weak northwest flow regime will persist today over northern New England. Lingering low-level moisture, surface heating in cloud breaks southeast of the higher terrain, and very subtle midlevel vorticity maxima will support a few thunderstorms this afternoon across southern/eastern ME and part of NH. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear near 25 kt (with longer hodographs aloft) will be sufficient for semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/05/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... The large upper cyclone that is expected to persist across southeastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS throughout the end of the week will likely begin breaking down on D4/Saturday, when a series of shortwave troughs begin progressing through its southern periphery. The evolution of these shortwaves is expected to induce a more progressive character to this cyclone while also amplifying the troughing across the eastern CONUS on D5/Sunday. This upper troughing is then forecast to shift eastward off the East Coast on D6/Monday. The evolution of this cyclone will encourage a southward push of continental air across the central Plains and Mid MS/OH Valleys on D4/Saturday, likely continuing southward across the southern Plains and much of the Southeast on D5/Sunday. Upslope flow behind the front may contribute to thunderstorms across the central High Plains on D4/Saturday, with additional storms possible ahead of the front over the Ozark Plateau vicinity. Uncertainty regarding frontal timing as well as overall severe coverage limits predictability. Thunderstorms are possible along the front across the southern Plains and Southeast on D5/Sunday, but may trend towards a more anafrontal character given the boundary-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vector. Guidance begins to diverge on D6/Monday, resulting significant differences in forecast low-level moisture across the Plains and Southeast States. These difference lower forecast confidence and limit predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... The large upper cyclone that is expected to persist across southeastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS throughout the end of the week will likely begin breaking down on D4/Saturday, when a series of shortwave troughs begin progressing through its southern periphery. The evolution of these shortwaves is expected to induce a more progressive character to this cyclone while also amplifying the troughing across the eastern CONUS on D5/Sunday. This upper troughing is then forecast to shift eastward off the East Coast on D6/Monday. The evolution of this cyclone will encourage a southward push of continental air across the central Plains and Mid MS/OH Valleys on D4/Saturday, likely continuing southward across the southern Plains and much of the Southeast on D5/Sunday. Upslope flow behind the front may contribute to thunderstorms across the central High Plains on D4/Saturday, with additional storms possible ahead of the front over the Ozark Plateau vicinity. Uncertainty regarding frontal timing as well as overall severe coverage limits predictability. Thunderstorms are possible along the front across the southern Plains and Southeast on D5/Sunday, but may trend towards a more anafrontal character given the boundary-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vector. Guidance begins to diverge on D6/Monday, resulting significant differences in forecast low-level moisture across the Plains and Southeast States. These difference lower forecast confidence and limit predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... The large upper cyclone that is expected to persist across southeastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS throughout the end of the week will likely begin breaking down on D4/Saturday, when a series of shortwave troughs begin progressing through its southern periphery. The evolution of these shortwaves is expected to induce a more progressive character to this cyclone while also amplifying the troughing across the eastern CONUS on D5/Sunday. This upper troughing is then forecast to shift eastward off the East Coast on D6/Monday. The evolution of this cyclone will encourage a southward push of continental air across the central Plains and Mid MS/OH Valleys on D4/Saturday, likely continuing southward across the southern Plains and much of the Southeast on D5/Sunday. Upslope flow behind the front may contribute to thunderstorms across the central High Plains on D4/Saturday, with additional storms possible ahead of the front over the Ozark Plateau vicinity. Uncertainty regarding frontal timing as well as overall severe coverage limits predictability. Thunderstorms are possible along the front across the southern Plains and Southeast on D5/Sunday, but may trend towards a more anafrontal character given the boundary-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vector. Guidance begins to diverge on D6/Monday, resulting significant differences in forecast low-level moisture across the Plains and Southeast States. These difference lower forecast confidence and limit predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... The large upper cyclone that is expected to persist across southeastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS throughout the end of the week will likely begin breaking down on D4/Saturday, when a series of shortwave troughs begin progressing through its southern periphery. The evolution of these shortwaves is expected to induce a more progressive character to this cyclone while also amplifying the troughing across the eastern CONUS on D5/Sunday. This upper troughing is then forecast to shift eastward off the East Coast on D6/Monday. The evolution of this cyclone will encourage a southward push of continental air across the central Plains and Mid MS/OH Valleys on D4/Saturday, likely continuing southward across the southern Plains and much of the Southeast on D5/Sunday. Upslope flow behind the front may contribute to thunderstorms across the central High Plains on D4/Saturday, with additional storms possible ahead of the front over the Ozark Plateau vicinity. Uncertainty regarding frontal timing as well as overall severe coverage limits predictability. Thunderstorms are possible along the front across the southern Plains and Southeast on D5/Sunday, but may trend towards a more anafrontal character given the boundary-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vector. Guidance begins to diverge on D6/Monday, resulting significant differences in forecast low-level moisture across the Plains and Southeast States. These difference lower forecast confidence and limit predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... The large upper cyclone that is expected to persist across southeastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS throughout the end of the week will likely begin breaking down on D4/Saturday, when a series of shortwave troughs begin progressing through its southern periphery. The evolution of these shortwaves is expected to induce a more progressive character to this cyclone while also amplifying the troughing across the eastern CONUS on D5/Sunday. This upper troughing is then forecast to shift eastward off the East Coast on D6/Monday. The evolution of this cyclone will encourage a southward push of continental air across the central Plains and Mid MS/OH Valleys on D4/Saturday, likely continuing southward across the southern Plains and much of the Southeast on D5/Sunday. Upslope flow behind the front may contribute to thunderstorms across the central High Plains on D4/Saturday, with additional storms possible ahead of the front over the Ozark Plateau vicinity. Uncertainty regarding frontal timing as well as overall severe coverage limits predictability. Thunderstorms are possible along the front across the southern Plains and Southeast on D5/Sunday, but may trend towards a more anafrontal character given the boundary-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vector. Guidance begins to diverge on D6/Monday, resulting significant differences in forecast low-level moisture across the Plains and Southeast States. These difference lower forecast confidence and limit predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... The large upper cyclone that is expected to persist across southeastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS throughout the end of the week will likely begin breaking down on D4/Saturday, when a series of shortwave troughs begin progressing through its southern periphery. The evolution of these shortwaves is expected to induce a more progressive character to this cyclone while also amplifying the troughing across the eastern CONUS on D5/Sunday. This upper troughing is then forecast to shift eastward off the East Coast on D6/Monday. The evolution of this cyclone will encourage a southward push of continental air across the central Plains and Mid MS/OH Valleys on D4/Saturday, likely continuing southward across the southern Plains and much of the Southeast on D5/Sunday. Upslope flow behind the front may contribute to thunderstorms across the central High Plains on D4/Saturday, with additional storms possible ahead of the front over the Ozark Plateau vicinity. Uncertainty regarding frontal timing as well as overall severe coverage limits predictability. Thunderstorms are possible along the front across the southern Plains and Southeast on D5/Sunday, but may trend towards a more anafrontal character given the boundary-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vector. Guidance begins to diverge on D6/Monday, resulting significant differences in forecast low-level moisture across the Plains and Southeast States. These difference lower forecast confidence and limit predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... The large upper cyclone that is expected to persist across southeastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS throughout the end of the week will likely begin breaking down on D4/Saturday, when a series of shortwave troughs begin progressing through its southern periphery. The evolution of these shortwaves is expected to induce a more progressive character to this cyclone while also amplifying the troughing across the eastern CONUS on D5/Sunday. This upper troughing is then forecast to shift eastward off the East Coast on D6/Monday. The evolution of this cyclone will encourage a southward push of continental air across the central Plains and Mid MS/OH Valleys on D4/Saturday, likely continuing southward across the southern Plains and much of the Southeast on D5/Sunday. Upslope flow behind the front may contribute to thunderstorms across the central High Plains on D4/Saturday, with additional storms possible ahead of the front over the Ozark Plateau vicinity. Uncertainty regarding frontal timing as well as overall severe coverage limits predictability. Thunderstorms are possible along the front across the southern Plains and Southeast on D5/Sunday, but may trend towards a more anafrontal character given the boundary-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vector. Guidance begins to diverge on D6/Monday, resulting significant differences in forecast low-level moisture across the Plains and Southeast States. These difference lower forecast confidence and limit predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... The large upper cyclone that is expected to persist across southeastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS throughout the end of the week will likely begin breaking down on D4/Saturday, when a series of shortwave troughs begin progressing through its southern periphery. The evolution of these shortwaves is expected to induce a more progressive character to this cyclone while also amplifying the troughing across the eastern CONUS on D5/Sunday. This upper troughing is then forecast to shift eastward off the East Coast on D6/Monday. The evolution of this cyclone will encourage a southward push of continental air across the central Plains and Mid MS/OH Valleys on D4/Saturday, likely continuing southward across the southern Plains and much of the Southeast on D5/Sunday. Upslope flow behind the front may contribute to thunderstorms across the central High Plains on D4/Saturday, with additional storms possible ahead of the front over the Ozark Plateau vicinity. Uncertainty regarding frontal timing as well as overall severe coverage limits predictability. Thunderstorms are possible along the front across the southern Plains and Southeast on D5/Sunday, but may trend towards a more anafrontal character given the boundary-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vector. Guidance begins to diverge on D6/Monday, resulting significant differences in forecast low-level moisture across the Plains and Southeast States. These difference lower forecast confidence and limit predictability. Read more

MD 1172 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EAST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1172 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Areas affected...parts of east TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 050755Z - 050930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated, marginally severe wind gusts embedded within a broader swath of primarily strong gusts may persist through dawn as an MCS moves southeastward across parts of east Texas. DISCUSSION...An increasingly ragged QLCS has been progressing steadily southeast across the Red River and northeast TX. Sub-severe but strong gusts have been common along the outflow. A couple marginally severe gusts of 57 and 60 mph have been measured during the past hour or so with multiple deeper convective cores on the western arc of the MCS across far south-central OK into north-central TX. This process of regenerative convection on the backside of the MCS/post-outflow may persist owing to the plumes of large buoyancy over central TX and steep mid-level lapse rates to the west-northwest. These cells may continue to produce strong to localized severe gusts in a sporadic fashion, before weakening as they shift deeper into the remnant stratiform from the leading line. ..Grams/Thompson.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34179708 33939680 33259600 33179557 33309493 33489447 33229404 32699401 32339400 31689452 31359553 31449603 31629683 32859750 33259755 33899765 34089767 34179708 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central High Plains on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairie Provinces southeastward off the Northeast Coast early Friday morning, anchored by a pair of closed lows, one over central Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the other Lake Huron. This troughing is expected to persist throughout much of the period, while upper ridging builds from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Rockies through the Upper/Mid MS and OH Valleys and into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold will likely extend from a low over southern New England southward off the East Coast before then arcing more southwestward from coastal NC into central GA and westward back into northeast TX. A few thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front over coastal NC and the Outer Banks, as well as central and eastern Gulf Coast into the Florida Peninsula. Weak shear should keep the severe potential low. Farther west across the southern Plains, the front will become increasingly diffuse, with it likely returning northward as a warm front during the afternoon and evening as moisture returns back across the southern and central High Plains. Strong mixing is anticipated across much of the southern High Plains, with less mixing along the warm front into the central High Plains. As a result, 60s dewpoints are likely into eastern CO/western KS in near the lee trough. Thunderstorm development appears possible as a result, with moderate vertical shear supporting the potential for organized storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. The lack of larger scale forcing suggests isolated coverage, but there is some chance that a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through the ridge, helping to increase coverage. Greater storm coverage would increase the likelihood of upscale growth and the development of a convective line. However, predictability of that evolution is currently low. ..Mosier.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central High Plains on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairie Provinces southeastward off the Northeast Coast early Friday morning, anchored by a pair of closed lows, one over central Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the other Lake Huron. This troughing is expected to persist throughout much of the period, while upper ridging builds from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Rockies through the Upper/Mid MS and OH Valleys and into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold will likely extend from a low over southern New England southward off the East Coast before then arcing more southwestward from coastal NC into central GA and westward back into northeast TX. A few thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front over coastal NC and the Outer Banks, as well as central and eastern Gulf Coast into the Florida Peninsula. Weak shear should keep the severe potential low. Farther west across the southern Plains, the front will become increasingly diffuse, with it likely returning northward as a warm front during the afternoon and evening as moisture returns back across the southern and central High Plains. Strong mixing is anticipated across much of the southern High Plains, with less mixing along the warm front into the central High Plains. As a result, 60s dewpoints are likely into eastern CO/western KS in near the lee trough. Thunderstorm development appears possible as a result, with moderate vertical shear supporting the potential for organized storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. The lack of larger scale forcing suggests isolated coverage, but there is some chance that a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through the ridge, helping to increase coverage. Greater storm coverage would increase the likelihood of upscale growth and the development of a convective line. However, predictability of that evolution is currently low. ..Mosier.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central High Plains on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairie Provinces southeastward off the Northeast Coast early Friday morning, anchored by a pair of closed lows, one over central Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the other Lake Huron. This troughing is expected to persist throughout much of the period, while upper ridging builds from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Rockies through the Upper/Mid MS and OH Valleys and into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold will likely extend from a low over southern New England southward off the East Coast before then arcing more southwestward from coastal NC into central GA and westward back into northeast TX. A few thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front over coastal NC and the Outer Banks, as well as central and eastern Gulf Coast into the Florida Peninsula. Weak shear should keep the severe potential low. Farther west across the southern Plains, the front will become increasingly diffuse, with it likely returning northward as a warm front during the afternoon and evening as moisture returns back across the southern and central High Plains. Strong mixing is anticipated across much of the southern High Plains, with less mixing along the warm front into the central High Plains. As a result, 60s dewpoints are likely into eastern CO/western KS in near the lee trough. Thunderstorm development appears possible as a result, with moderate vertical shear supporting the potential for organized storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. The lack of larger scale forcing suggests isolated coverage, but there is some chance that a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through the ridge, helping to increase coverage. Greater storm coverage would increase the likelihood of upscale growth and the development of a convective line. However, predictability of that evolution is currently low. ..Mosier.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central High Plains on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairie Provinces southeastward off the Northeast Coast early Friday morning, anchored by a pair of closed lows, one over central Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the other Lake Huron. This troughing is expected to persist throughout much of the period, while upper ridging builds from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Rockies through the Upper/Mid MS and OH Valleys and into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold will likely extend from a low over southern New England southward off the East Coast before then arcing more southwestward from coastal NC into central GA and westward back into northeast TX. A few thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front over coastal NC and the Outer Banks, as well as central and eastern Gulf Coast into the Florida Peninsula. Weak shear should keep the severe potential low. Farther west across the southern Plains, the front will become increasingly diffuse, with it likely returning northward as a warm front during the afternoon and evening as moisture returns back across the southern and central High Plains. Strong mixing is anticipated across much of the southern High Plains, with less mixing along the warm front into the central High Plains. As a result, 60s dewpoints are likely into eastern CO/western KS in near the lee trough. Thunderstorm development appears possible as a result, with moderate vertical shear supporting the potential for organized storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. The lack of larger scale forcing suggests isolated coverage, but there is some chance that a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through the ridge, helping to increase coverage. Greater storm coverage would increase the likelihood of upscale growth and the development of a convective line. However, predictability of that evolution is currently low. ..Mosier.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central High Plains on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairie Provinces southeastward off the Northeast Coast early Friday morning, anchored by a pair of closed lows, one over central Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the other Lake Huron. This troughing is expected to persist throughout much of the period, while upper ridging builds from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Rockies through the Upper/Mid MS and OH Valleys and into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold will likely extend from a low over southern New England southward off the East Coast before then arcing more southwestward from coastal NC into central GA and westward back into northeast TX. A few thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front over coastal NC and the Outer Banks, as well as central and eastern Gulf Coast into the Florida Peninsula. Weak shear should keep the severe potential low. Farther west across the southern Plains, the front will become increasingly diffuse, with it likely returning northward as a warm front during the afternoon and evening as moisture returns back across the southern and central High Plains. Strong mixing is anticipated across much of the southern High Plains, with less mixing along the warm front into the central High Plains. As a result, 60s dewpoints are likely into eastern CO/western KS in near the lee trough. Thunderstorm development appears possible as a result, with moderate vertical shear supporting the potential for organized storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. The lack of larger scale forcing suggests isolated coverage, but there is some chance that a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through the ridge, helping to increase coverage. Greater storm coverage would increase the likelihood of upscale growth and the development of a convective line. However, predictability of that evolution is currently low. ..Mosier.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central High Plains on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairie Provinces southeastward off the Northeast Coast early Friday morning, anchored by a pair of closed lows, one over central Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the other Lake Huron. This troughing is expected to persist throughout much of the period, while upper ridging builds from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Rockies through the Upper/Mid MS and OH Valleys and into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold will likely extend from a low over southern New England southward off the East Coast before then arcing more southwestward from coastal NC into central GA and westward back into northeast TX. A few thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front over coastal NC and the Outer Banks, as well as central and eastern Gulf Coast into the Florida Peninsula. Weak shear should keep the severe potential low. Farther west across the southern Plains, the front will become increasingly diffuse, with it likely returning northward as a warm front during the afternoon and evening as moisture returns back across the southern and central High Plains. Strong mixing is anticipated across much of the southern High Plains, with less mixing along the warm front into the central High Plains. As a result, 60s dewpoints are likely into eastern CO/western KS in near the lee trough. Thunderstorm development appears possible as a result, with moderate vertical shear supporting the potential for organized storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. The lack of larger scale forcing suggests isolated coverage, but there is some chance that a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through the ridge, helping to increase coverage. Greater storm coverage would increase the likelihood of upscale growth and the development of a convective line. However, predictability of that evolution is currently low. ..Mosier.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central High Plains on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairie Provinces southeastward off the Northeast Coast early Friday morning, anchored by a pair of closed lows, one over central Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the other Lake Huron. This troughing is expected to persist throughout much of the period, while upper ridging builds from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Rockies through the Upper/Mid MS and OH Valleys and into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold will likely extend from a low over southern New England southward off the East Coast before then arcing more southwestward from coastal NC into central GA and westward back into northeast TX. A few thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front over coastal NC and the Outer Banks, as well as central and eastern Gulf Coast into the Florida Peninsula. Weak shear should keep the severe potential low. Farther west across the southern Plains, the front will become increasingly diffuse, with it likely returning northward as a warm front during the afternoon and evening as moisture returns back across the southern and central High Plains. Strong mixing is anticipated across much of the southern High Plains, with less mixing along the warm front into the central High Plains. As a result, 60s dewpoints are likely into eastern CO/western KS in near the lee trough. Thunderstorm development appears possible as a result, with moderate vertical shear supporting the potential for organized storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. The lack of larger scale forcing suggests isolated coverage, but there is some chance that a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through the ridge, helping to increase coverage. Greater storm coverage would increase the likelihood of upscale growth and the development of a convective line. However, predictability of that evolution is currently low. ..Mosier.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central High Plains on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairie Provinces southeastward off the Northeast Coast early Friday morning, anchored by a pair of closed lows, one over central Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the other Lake Huron. This troughing is expected to persist throughout much of the period, while upper ridging builds from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Rockies through the Upper/Mid MS and OH Valleys and into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold will likely extend from a low over southern New England southward off the East Coast before then arcing more southwestward from coastal NC into central GA and westward back into northeast TX. A few thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front over coastal NC and the Outer Banks, as well as central and eastern Gulf Coast into the Florida Peninsula. Weak shear should keep the severe potential low. Farther west across the southern Plains, the front will become increasingly diffuse, with it likely returning northward as a warm front during the afternoon and evening as moisture returns back across the southern and central High Plains. Strong mixing is anticipated across much of the southern High Plains, with less mixing along the warm front into the central High Plains. As a result, 60s dewpoints are likely into eastern CO/western KS in near the lee trough. Thunderstorm development appears possible as a result, with moderate vertical shear supporting the potential for organized storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. The lack of larger scale forcing suggests isolated coverage, but there is some chance that a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through the ridge, helping to increase coverage. Greater storm coverage would increase the likelihood of upscale growth and the development of a convective line. However, predictability of that evolution is currently low. ..Mosier.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central High Plains on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairie Provinces southeastward off the Northeast Coast early Friday morning, anchored by a pair of closed lows, one over central Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the other Lake Huron. This troughing is expected to persist throughout much of the period, while upper ridging builds from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Rockies through the Upper/Mid MS and OH Valleys and into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold will likely extend from a low over southern New England southward off the East Coast before then arcing more southwestward from coastal NC into central GA and westward back into northeast TX. A few thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front over coastal NC and the Outer Banks, as well as central and eastern Gulf Coast into the Florida Peninsula. Weak shear should keep the severe potential low. Farther west across the southern Plains, the front will become increasingly diffuse, with it likely returning northward as a warm front during the afternoon and evening as moisture returns back across the southern and central High Plains. Strong mixing is anticipated across much of the southern High Plains, with less mixing along the warm front into the central High Plains. As a result, 60s dewpoints are likely into eastern CO/western KS in near the lee trough. Thunderstorm development appears possible as a result, with moderate vertical shear supporting the potential for organized storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. The lack of larger scale forcing suggests isolated coverage, but there is some chance that a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through the ridge, helping to increase coverage. Greater storm coverage would increase the likelihood of upscale growth and the development of a convective line. However, predictability of that evolution is currently low. ..Mosier.. 06/05/2024 Read more