Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are possible from parts of the Great Lakes to the central and southern Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms will also pose a risk of hail and severe wind gusts over portions of the northern and central High Plains. ...Northern Lower Michigan... Ahead of an MCV, a well-organized cluster of storms will pose at a short-term severe risk across far northern Lower Michigan early this afternoon, although there is some potential for additional development southwestward along the front this afternoon. ...Midwest/Lake Michigan vicinity to south-central Plains... Aside from an MCV nearing northern Lake Michigan, at least one additional eastward-moving MCV exists across eastern Iowa, nearing the southwest Wisconsin/northwest Illinois border vicinity as of midday. Some multi-layer cloud debris still persists, and a pre-frontal veering of winds (westerly component) has occurred in some areas. However, heating of a very moist air mass (70s F surface dewpoints) will lead to strong destabilization (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) and relatively weak boundary-layer inhibition this afternoon near/ahead of the front. Most 12z global guidance/HREF members are more aggressive in the coverage/intensity of convection than morning HRRR/RRFS/MPAS runs, particularly for northern portions of Illinois/Indiana into Lower Michigan. Where deep convection does develop/sustain this afternoon, MCV-aided enhancement of low/mid-tropospheric flow will support some well-organized bands/clusters of storms with wind damage as the most common severe risk across northern Missouri, northern portions of Illinois/Indiana, into Lower Michigan. A more localized/pulse-type severe risk is anticipated farther southwest into southern Kansas/northwest Oklahoma. ...High Plains... Moderate instability will develop across parts of the northern/central High Plains this afternoon. Large-scale ascent will tend to be weak behind a departing mid-level shortwave trough. Even so, convective development should occur near the adjacent higher terrain this afternoon. Effective shear of 25-40 kt will support some updraft organization. Initially discrete cells may pose an isolated threat for hail. Some outflow amalgamation/mergers could eventually occur, with a threat of strong to locally severe gusts spreading eastward into the evening before convection eventually weakens. Farther south across portions of the southern High Plains, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also expected to develop this afternoon/early evening. Deep-layer shear will remain weak across this region, but localized strong to severe outflow gusts may still be possible. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are possible from parts of the Great Lakes to the central and southern Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms will also pose a risk of hail and severe wind gusts over portions of the northern and central High Plains. ...Northern Lower Michigan... Ahead of an MCV, a well-organized cluster of storms will pose at a short-term severe risk across far northern Lower Michigan early this afternoon, although there is some potential for additional development southwestward along the front this afternoon. ...Midwest/Lake Michigan vicinity to south-central Plains... Aside from an MCV nearing northern Lake Michigan, at least one additional eastward-moving MCV exists across eastern Iowa, nearing the southwest Wisconsin/northwest Illinois border vicinity as of midday. Some multi-layer cloud debris still persists, and a pre-frontal veering of winds (westerly component) has occurred in some areas. However, heating of a very moist air mass (70s F surface dewpoints) will lead to strong destabilization (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) and relatively weak boundary-layer inhibition this afternoon near/ahead of the front. Most 12z global guidance/HREF members are more aggressive in the coverage/intensity of convection than morning HRRR/RRFS/MPAS runs, particularly for northern portions of Illinois/Indiana into Lower Michigan. Where deep convection does develop/sustain this afternoon, MCV-aided enhancement of low/mid-tropospheric flow will support some well-organized bands/clusters of storms with wind damage as the most common severe risk across northern Missouri, northern portions of Illinois/Indiana, into Lower Michigan. A more localized/pulse-type severe risk is anticipated farther southwest into southern Kansas/northwest Oklahoma. ...High Plains... Moderate instability will develop across parts of the northern/central High Plains this afternoon. Large-scale ascent will tend to be weak behind a departing mid-level shortwave trough. Even so, convective development should occur near the adjacent higher terrain this afternoon. Effective shear of 25-40 kt will support some updraft organization. Initially discrete cells may pose an isolated threat for hail. Some outflow amalgamation/mergers could eventually occur, with a threat of strong to locally severe gusts spreading eastward into the evening before convection eventually weakens. Farther south across portions of the southern High Plains, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also expected to develop this afternoon/early evening. Deep-layer shear will remain weak across this region, but localized strong to severe outflow gusts may still be possible. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are possible from parts of the Great Lakes to the central and southern Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms will also pose a risk of hail and severe wind gusts over portions of the northern and central High Plains. ...Northern Lower Michigan... Ahead of an MCV, a well-organized cluster of storms will pose at a short-term severe risk across far northern Lower Michigan early this afternoon, although there is some potential for additional development southwestward along the front this afternoon. ...Midwest/Lake Michigan vicinity to south-central Plains... Aside from an MCV nearing northern Lake Michigan, at least one additional eastward-moving MCV exists across eastern Iowa, nearing the southwest Wisconsin/northwest Illinois border vicinity as of midday. Some multi-layer cloud debris still persists, and a pre-frontal veering of winds (westerly component) has occurred in some areas. However, heating of a very moist air mass (70s F surface dewpoints) will lead to strong destabilization (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) and relatively weak boundary-layer inhibition this afternoon near/ahead of the front. Most 12z global guidance/HREF members are more aggressive in the coverage/intensity of convection than morning HRRR/RRFS/MPAS runs, particularly for northern portions of Illinois/Indiana into Lower Michigan. Where deep convection does develop/sustain this afternoon, MCV-aided enhancement of low/mid-tropospheric flow will support some well-organized bands/clusters of storms with wind damage as the most common severe risk across northern Missouri, northern portions of Illinois/Indiana, into Lower Michigan. A more localized/pulse-type severe risk is anticipated farther southwest into southern Kansas/northwest Oklahoma. ...High Plains... Moderate instability will develop across parts of the northern/central High Plains this afternoon. Large-scale ascent will tend to be weak behind a departing mid-level shortwave trough. Even so, convective development should occur near the adjacent higher terrain this afternoon. Effective shear of 25-40 kt will support some updraft organization. Initially discrete cells may pose an isolated threat for hail. Some outflow amalgamation/mergers could eventually occur, with a threat of strong to locally severe gusts spreading eastward into the evening before convection eventually weakens. Farther south across portions of the southern High Plains, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also expected to develop this afternoon/early evening. Deep-layer shear will remain weak across this region, but localized strong to severe outflow gusts may still be possible. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are possible from parts of the Great Lakes to the central and southern Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms will also pose a risk of hail and severe wind gusts over portions of the northern and central High Plains. ...Northern Lower Michigan... Ahead of an MCV, a well-organized cluster of storms will pose at a short-term severe risk across far northern Lower Michigan early this afternoon, although there is some potential for additional development southwestward along the front this afternoon. ...Midwest/Lake Michigan vicinity to south-central Plains... Aside from an MCV nearing northern Lake Michigan, at least one additional eastward-moving MCV exists across eastern Iowa, nearing the southwest Wisconsin/northwest Illinois border vicinity as of midday. Some multi-layer cloud debris still persists, and a pre-frontal veering of winds (westerly component) has occurred in some areas. However, heating of a very moist air mass (70s F surface dewpoints) will lead to strong destabilization (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) and relatively weak boundary-layer inhibition this afternoon near/ahead of the front. Most 12z global guidance/HREF members are more aggressive in the coverage/intensity of convection than morning HRRR/RRFS/MPAS runs, particularly for northern portions of Illinois/Indiana into Lower Michigan. Where deep convection does develop/sustain this afternoon, MCV-aided enhancement of low/mid-tropospheric flow will support some well-organized bands/clusters of storms with wind damage as the most common severe risk across northern Missouri, northern portions of Illinois/Indiana, into Lower Michigan. A more localized/pulse-type severe risk is anticipated farther southwest into southern Kansas/northwest Oklahoma. ...High Plains... Moderate instability will develop across parts of the northern/central High Plains this afternoon. Large-scale ascent will tend to be weak behind a departing mid-level shortwave trough. Even so, convective development should occur near the adjacent higher terrain this afternoon. Effective shear of 25-40 kt will support some updraft organization. Initially discrete cells may pose an isolated threat for hail. Some outflow amalgamation/mergers could eventually occur, with a threat of strong to locally severe gusts spreading eastward into the evening before convection eventually weakens. Farther south across portions of the southern High Plains, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also expected to develop this afternoon/early evening. Deep-layer shear will remain weak across this region, but localized strong to severe outflow gusts may still be possible. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are possible from parts of the Great Lakes to the central and southern Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms will also pose a risk of hail and severe wind gusts over portions of the northern and central High Plains. ...Northern Lower Michigan... Ahead of an MCV, a well-organized cluster of storms will pose at a short-term severe risk across far northern Lower Michigan early this afternoon, although there is some potential for additional development southwestward along the front this afternoon. ...Midwest/Lake Michigan vicinity to south-central Plains... Aside from an MCV nearing northern Lake Michigan, at least one additional eastward-moving MCV exists across eastern Iowa, nearing the southwest Wisconsin/northwest Illinois border vicinity as of midday. Some multi-layer cloud debris still persists, and a pre-frontal veering of winds (westerly component) has occurred in some areas. However, heating of a very moist air mass (70s F surface dewpoints) will lead to strong destabilization (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) and relatively weak boundary-layer inhibition this afternoon near/ahead of the front. Most 12z global guidance/HREF members are more aggressive in the coverage/intensity of convection than morning HRRR/RRFS/MPAS runs, particularly for northern portions of Illinois/Indiana into Lower Michigan. Where deep convection does develop/sustain this afternoon, MCV-aided enhancement of low/mid-tropospheric flow will support some well-organized bands/clusters of storms with wind damage as the most common severe risk across northern Missouri, northern portions of Illinois/Indiana, into Lower Michigan. A more localized/pulse-type severe risk is anticipated farther southwest into southern Kansas/northwest Oklahoma. ...High Plains... Moderate instability will develop across parts of the northern/central High Plains this afternoon. Large-scale ascent will tend to be weak behind a departing mid-level shortwave trough. Even so, convective development should occur near the adjacent higher terrain this afternoon. Effective shear of 25-40 kt will support some updraft organization. Initially discrete cells may pose an isolated threat for hail. Some outflow amalgamation/mergers could eventually occur, with a threat of strong to locally severe gusts spreading eastward into the evening before convection eventually weakens. Farther south across portions of the southern High Plains, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also expected to develop this afternoon/early evening. Deep-layer shear will remain weak across this region, but localized strong to severe outflow gusts may still be possible. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are possible from parts of the Great Lakes to the central and southern Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms will also pose a risk of hail and severe wind gusts over portions of the northern and central High Plains. ...Northern Lower Michigan... Ahead of an MCV, a well-organized cluster of storms will pose at a short-term severe risk across far northern Lower Michigan early this afternoon, although there is some potential for additional development southwestward along the front this afternoon. ...Midwest/Lake Michigan vicinity to south-central Plains... Aside from an MCV nearing northern Lake Michigan, at least one additional eastward-moving MCV exists across eastern Iowa, nearing the southwest Wisconsin/northwest Illinois border vicinity as of midday. Some multi-layer cloud debris still persists, and a pre-frontal veering of winds (westerly component) has occurred in some areas. However, heating of a very moist air mass (70s F surface dewpoints) will lead to strong destabilization (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) and relatively weak boundary-layer inhibition this afternoon near/ahead of the front. Most 12z global guidance/HREF members are more aggressive in the coverage/intensity of convection than morning HRRR/RRFS/MPAS runs, particularly for northern portions of Illinois/Indiana into Lower Michigan. Where deep convection does develop/sustain this afternoon, MCV-aided enhancement of low/mid-tropospheric flow will support some well-organized bands/clusters of storms with wind damage as the most common severe risk across northern Missouri, northern portions of Illinois/Indiana, into Lower Michigan. A more localized/pulse-type severe risk is anticipated farther southwest into southern Kansas/northwest Oklahoma. ...High Plains... Moderate instability will develop across parts of the northern/central High Plains this afternoon. Large-scale ascent will tend to be weak behind a departing mid-level shortwave trough. Even so, convective development should occur near the adjacent higher terrain this afternoon. Effective shear of 25-40 kt will support some updraft organization. Initially discrete cells may pose an isolated threat for hail. Some outflow amalgamation/mergers could eventually occur, with a threat of strong to locally severe gusts spreading eastward into the evening before convection eventually weakens. Farther south across portions of the southern High Plains, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also expected to develop this afternoon/early evening. Deep-layer shear will remain weak across this region, but localized strong to severe outflow gusts may still be possible. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are possible from parts of the Great Lakes to the central and southern Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms will also pose a risk of hail and severe wind gusts over portions of the northern and central High Plains. ...Northern Lower Michigan... Ahead of an MCV, a well-organized cluster of storms will pose at a short-term severe risk across far northern Lower Michigan early this afternoon, although there is some potential for additional development southwestward along the front this afternoon. ...Midwest/Lake Michigan vicinity to south-central Plains... Aside from an MCV nearing northern Lake Michigan, at least one additional eastward-moving MCV exists across eastern Iowa, nearing the southwest Wisconsin/northwest Illinois border vicinity as of midday. Some multi-layer cloud debris still persists, and a pre-frontal veering of winds (westerly component) has occurred in some areas. However, heating of a very moist air mass (70s F surface dewpoints) will lead to strong destabilization (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) and relatively weak boundary-layer inhibition this afternoon near/ahead of the front. Most 12z global guidance/HREF members are more aggressive in the coverage/intensity of convection than morning HRRR/RRFS/MPAS runs, particularly for northern portions of Illinois/Indiana into Lower Michigan. Where deep convection does develop/sustain this afternoon, MCV-aided enhancement of low/mid-tropospheric flow will support some well-organized bands/clusters of storms with wind damage as the most common severe risk across northern Missouri, northern portions of Illinois/Indiana, into Lower Michigan. A more localized/pulse-type severe risk is anticipated farther southwest into southern Kansas/northwest Oklahoma. ...High Plains... Moderate instability will develop across parts of the northern/central High Plains this afternoon. Large-scale ascent will tend to be weak behind a departing mid-level shortwave trough. Even so, convective development should occur near the adjacent higher terrain this afternoon. Effective shear of 25-40 kt will support some updraft organization. Initially discrete cells may pose an isolated threat for hail. Some outflow amalgamation/mergers could eventually occur, with a threat of strong to locally severe gusts spreading eastward into the evening before convection eventually weakens. Farther south across portions of the southern High Plains, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also expected to develop this afternoon/early evening. Deep-layer shear will remain weak across this region, but localized strong to severe outflow gusts may still be possible. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Update... No changes were made to today's forecast. Expect increasing chances of dry/wet lightning this afternoon into early this evening from northern CA/southern OR, eastward into far western WY. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A closed mid-level low will bring moisture in across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest. A trough is expected to dig into the Pacific Northwest, with increasing westerly flow overspreading the Cascades. Some locally Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across the Cascade Gaps. ...Dry Thunderstorms... An increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is expected across portions of northern California and southern Oregon with the increase in moisture and inland progression of the upper low. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected a moisture increases through the afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate the boundary layer conditions will be initially very dry, though training storms will likely lead to moistening through time. It is likely that localized areas of wetting rainfall will occur, but productive lighting activity will likely lead to strikes outside of the heavier cores. An area of Scattered Dry Thunderstorms was maintained with this outlook, as overall broad QPF amounts appear light and fuels remain critically dry. A broader area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk was reduced across north-central California where PWs will be around 1.00". The broader area extending into southern Oregon, Idaho and northern Nevada was maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Update... No changes were made to today's forecast. Expect increasing chances of dry/wet lightning this afternoon into early this evening from northern CA/southern OR, eastward into far western WY. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A closed mid-level low will bring moisture in across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest. A trough is expected to dig into the Pacific Northwest, with increasing westerly flow overspreading the Cascades. Some locally Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across the Cascade Gaps. ...Dry Thunderstorms... An increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is expected across portions of northern California and southern Oregon with the increase in moisture and inland progression of the upper low. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected a moisture increases through the afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate the boundary layer conditions will be initially very dry, though training storms will likely lead to moistening through time. It is likely that localized areas of wetting rainfall will occur, but productive lighting activity will likely lead to strikes outside of the heavier cores. An area of Scattered Dry Thunderstorms was maintained with this outlook, as overall broad QPF amounts appear light and fuels remain critically dry. A broader area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk was reduced across north-central California where PWs will be around 1.00". The broader area extending into southern Oregon, Idaho and northern Nevada was maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Update... No changes were made to today's forecast. Expect increasing chances of dry/wet lightning this afternoon into early this evening from northern CA/southern OR, eastward into far western WY. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A closed mid-level low will bring moisture in across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest. A trough is expected to dig into the Pacific Northwest, with increasing westerly flow overspreading the Cascades. Some locally Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across the Cascade Gaps. ...Dry Thunderstorms... An increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is expected across portions of northern California and southern Oregon with the increase in moisture and inland progression of the upper low. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected a moisture increases through the afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate the boundary layer conditions will be initially very dry, though training storms will likely lead to moistening through time. It is likely that localized areas of wetting rainfall will occur, but productive lighting activity will likely lead to strikes outside of the heavier cores. An area of Scattered Dry Thunderstorms was maintained with this outlook, as overall broad QPF amounts appear light and fuels remain critically dry. A broader area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk was reduced across north-central California where PWs will be around 1.00". The broader area extending into southern Oregon, Idaho and northern Nevada was maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Update... No changes were made to today's forecast. Expect increasing chances of dry/wet lightning this afternoon into early this evening from northern CA/southern OR, eastward into far western WY. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A closed mid-level low will bring moisture in across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest. A trough is expected to dig into the Pacific Northwest, with increasing westerly flow overspreading the Cascades. Some locally Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across the Cascade Gaps. ...Dry Thunderstorms... An increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is expected across portions of northern California and southern Oregon with the increase in moisture and inland progression of the upper low. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected a moisture increases through the afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate the boundary layer conditions will be initially very dry, though training storms will likely lead to moistening through time. It is likely that localized areas of wetting rainfall will occur, but productive lighting activity will likely lead to strikes outside of the heavier cores. An area of Scattered Dry Thunderstorms was maintained with this outlook, as overall broad QPF amounts appear light and fuels remain critically dry. A broader area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk was reduced across north-central California where PWs will be around 1.00". The broader area extending into southern Oregon, Idaho and northern Nevada was maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Update... No changes were made to today's forecast. Expect increasing chances of dry/wet lightning this afternoon into early this evening from northern CA/southern OR, eastward into far western WY. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A closed mid-level low will bring moisture in across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest. A trough is expected to dig into the Pacific Northwest, with increasing westerly flow overspreading the Cascades. Some locally Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across the Cascade Gaps. ...Dry Thunderstorms... An increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is expected across portions of northern California and southern Oregon with the increase in moisture and inland progression of the upper low. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected a moisture increases through the afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate the boundary layer conditions will be initially very dry, though training storms will likely lead to moistening through time. It is likely that localized areas of wetting rainfall will occur, but productive lighting activity will likely lead to strikes outside of the heavier cores. An area of Scattered Dry Thunderstorms was maintained with this outlook, as overall broad QPF amounts appear light and fuels remain critically dry. A broader area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk was reduced across north-central California where PWs will be around 1.00". The broader area extending into southern Oregon, Idaho and northern Nevada was maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Update... No changes were made to today's forecast. Expect increasing chances of dry/wet lightning this afternoon into early this evening from northern CA/southern OR, eastward into far western WY. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A closed mid-level low will bring moisture in across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest. A trough is expected to dig into the Pacific Northwest, with increasing westerly flow overspreading the Cascades. Some locally Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across the Cascade Gaps. ...Dry Thunderstorms... An increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is expected across portions of northern California and southern Oregon with the increase in moisture and inland progression of the upper low. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected a moisture increases through the afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate the boundary layer conditions will be initially very dry, though training storms will likely lead to moistening through time. It is likely that localized areas of wetting rainfall will occur, but productive lighting activity will likely lead to strikes outside of the heavier cores. An area of Scattered Dry Thunderstorms was maintained with this outlook, as overall broad QPF amounts appear light and fuels remain critically dry. A broader area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk was reduced across north-central California where PWs will be around 1.00". The broader area extending into southern Oregon, Idaho and northern Nevada was maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Update... No changes were made to today's forecast. Expect increasing chances of dry/wet lightning this afternoon into early this evening from northern CA/southern OR, eastward into far western WY. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A closed mid-level low will bring moisture in across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest. A trough is expected to dig into the Pacific Northwest, with increasing westerly flow overspreading the Cascades. Some locally Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across the Cascade Gaps. ...Dry Thunderstorms... An increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is expected across portions of northern California and southern Oregon with the increase in moisture and inland progression of the upper low. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected a moisture increases through the afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate the boundary layer conditions will be initially very dry, though training storms will likely lead to moistening through time. It is likely that localized areas of wetting rainfall will occur, but productive lighting activity will likely lead to strikes outside of the heavier cores. An area of Scattered Dry Thunderstorms was maintained with this outlook, as overall broad QPF amounts appear light and fuels remain critically dry. A broader area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk was reduced across north-central California where PWs will be around 1.00". The broader area extending into southern Oregon, Idaho and northern Nevada was maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Update... No changes were made to today's forecast. Expect increasing chances of dry/wet lightning this afternoon into early this evening from northern CA/southern OR, eastward into far western WY. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A closed mid-level low will bring moisture in across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest. A trough is expected to dig into the Pacific Northwest, with increasing westerly flow overspreading the Cascades. Some locally Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across the Cascade Gaps. ...Dry Thunderstorms... An increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is expected across portions of northern California and southern Oregon with the increase in moisture and inland progression of the upper low. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected a moisture increases through the afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate the boundary layer conditions will be initially very dry, though training storms will likely lead to moistening through time. It is likely that localized areas of wetting rainfall will occur, but productive lighting activity will likely lead to strikes outside of the heavier cores. An area of Scattered Dry Thunderstorms was maintained with this outlook, as overall broad QPF amounts appear light and fuels remain critically dry. A broader area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk was reduced across north-central California where PWs will be around 1.00". The broader area extending into southern Oregon, Idaho and northern Nevada was maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1770 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN LOWER MI VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 1770 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0952 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Areas affected...northern Lower MI vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 241452Z - 241615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts are possible through midday. DISCUSSION...A well-organized small bow located over northern Lake Michigan will continue to develop eastward into northern Lower MI through midday. This activity is developing near a convectively enhanced vorticity max within moderate southwesterly flow ahead of a shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest. Effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt will support continued organization of the bow and any additional storms that may develop along the southern flank as a surface boundary shifts east with time. Heating ahead of this convection has allowed temperatures to already warm into the upper 70s to low 80s as of late morning. With dewpoints in the 70s, a strong instability gradient in in place across northern Lower MI. Storms will track along the instability gradient. The 12z RAOB from APX suggests strong to severe wind potential is possible given moderately strong flow from from about 1 km through 300 mb. Some dryness also is noted between 850-700 mb, possibly enhancing downdraft strength. Given radar trends, at least a small rear-inflow jet appears to have developed as well. A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed soon for portions of the discussion area into early afternoon. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...APX... LAT...LON 45848552 46018479 45878380 45688321 45398275 45118286 44828313 44768355 44818509 45108596 45418599 45748582 45848552 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will be possible from parts of the Great Lakes to the central and southern Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms will also pose a risk of hail and severe wind gusts over portions of the northern and central High Plains. ...Synopsis... Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow will be maintained today between an upper trough progressing slowly eastward over central Canada and the north-central CONUS, and upper ridging across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Multiple mid-level MCVs evident on satellite and radar should move generally east-northeastward across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes today. At the surface, a convectively reinforced front will be draped from Ontario/Quebec southwestward to the southern Plains. This front will likely serve as a focused for additional scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, some of which could become strong to severe on an isolated basis. ...Great Lakes into the Midwest and Central/Southern Plains... A moist and rather unstable airmass will exist along/ahead of the front today, as diurnal heating aids in the gradual steepening of low-level lapse rates. Stronger mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear should be present across parts of MI and vicinity. Some enhancement to the low/mid-level winds and modest ascent associated with an MCV over northeast WI this morning may also aid in thunderstorm development and organization downstream into parts of northern Lower MI by early afternoon. This area appears to have the best combination of forecast instability and shear, and any thunderstorms which can form here could become severe while posing a threat for both isolated hail and damaging winds. However, low-level flow along/near the front is generally expected to remain veered to southwesterly, which should limit low-level convergence to some extent. Therefore, confidence in overall coverage of severe convection remains too low to include greater severe probabilities across northern Lower MI at this time. Mid-level flow and effective bulk shear values will decrease with southward extent across the Midwest into the southern Plains, away from any remnant MCV influences. This should tend to limit updraft organization with thunderstorms that develop this afternoon across these regions. Still, some potential should exist for loosely organized clusters given the linear low-level forcing. And with steep low-level lapse rates and moderate to strong instability, some of this convection may be capable of producing strong to locally severe winds through the early evening hours before eventually weakening with the loss of daytime heating. ...High Plains... Moderate instability should develop across parts of the northern/central High Plains this afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be weak behind a departing mid-level shortwave trough. Even so, convective development should occur near the adjacent higher terrain this afternoon. Effective shear of 25-40 kt will support some updraft organization. Initially discrete cells may pose an isolated threat for hail. Some outflow amalgamation/mergers could eventually occur, with a threat of strong to locally severe gusts spreading eastward into the evening before convection eventually weakens. Farther south across portions of the southern High Plains, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also expected to develop this afternoon/early evening. Deep-layer shear will remain weak across this region, but localized strong to severe outflow gusts may still be possible. ..Gleason/Grams.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will be possible from parts of the Great Lakes to the central and southern Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms will also pose a risk of hail and severe wind gusts over portions of the northern and central High Plains. ...Synopsis... Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow will be maintained today between an upper trough progressing slowly eastward over central Canada and the north-central CONUS, and upper ridging across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Multiple mid-level MCVs evident on satellite and radar should move generally east-northeastward across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes today. At the surface, a convectively reinforced front will be draped from Ontario/Quebec southwestward to the southern Plains. This front will likely serve as a focused for additional scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, some of which could become strong to severe on an isolated basis. ...Great Lakes into the Midwest and Central/Southern Plains... A moist and rather unstable airmass will exist along/ahead of the front today, as diurnal heating aids in the gradual steepening of low-level lapse rates. Stronger mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear should be present across parts of MI and vicinity. Some enhancement to the low/mid-level winds and modest ascent associated with an MCV over northeast WI this morning may also aid in thunderstorm development and organization downstream into parts of northern Lower MI by early afternoon. This area appears to have the best combination of forecast instability and shear, and any thunderstorms which can form here could become severe while posing a threat for both isolated hail and damaging winds. However, low-level flow along/near the front is generally expected to remain veered to southwesterly, which should limit low-level convergence to some extent. Therefore, confidence in overall coverage of severe convection remains too low to include greater severe probabilities across northern Lower MI at this time. Mid-level flow and effective bulk shear values will decrease with southward extent across the Midwest into the southern Plains, away from any remnant MCV influences. This should tend to limit updraft organization with thunderstorms that develop this afternoon across these regions. Still, some potential should exist for loosely organized clusters given the linear low-level forcing. And with steep low-level lapse rates and moderate to strong instability, some of this convection may be capable of producing strong to locally severe winds through the early evening hours before eventually weakening with the loss of daytime heating. ...High Plains... Moderate instability should develop across parts of the northern/central High Plains this afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be weak behind a departing mid-level shortwave trough. Even so, convective development should occur near the adjacent higher terrain this afternoon. Effective shear of 25-40 kt will support some updraft organization. Initially discrete cells may pose an isolated threat for hail. Some outflow amalgamation/mergers could eventually occur, with a threat of strong to locally severe gusts spreading eastward into the evening before convection eventually weakens. Farther south across portions of the southern High Plains, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also expected to develop this afternoon/early evening. Deep-layer shear will remain weak across this region, but localized strong to severe outflow gusts may still be possible. ..Gleason/Grams.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will be possible from parts of the Great Lakes to the central and southern Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms will also pose a risk of hail and severe wind gusts over portions of the northern and central High Plains. ...Synopsis... Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow will be maintained today between an upper trough progressing slowly eastward over central Canada and the north-central CONUS, and upper ridging across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Multiple mid-level MCVs evident on satellite and radar should move generally east-northeastward across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes today. At the surface, a convectively reinforced front will be draped from Ontario/Quebec southwestward to the southern Plains. This front will likely serve as a focused for additional scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, some of which could become strong to severe on an isolated basis. ...Great Lakes into the Midwest and Central/Southern Plains... A moist and rather unstable airmass will exist along/ahead of the front today, as diurnal heating aids in the gradual steepening of low-level lapse rates. Stronger mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear should be present across parts of MI and vicinity. Some enhancement to the low/mid-level winds and modest ascent associated with an MCV over northeast WI this morning may also aid in thunderstorm development and organization downstream into parts of northern Lower MI by early afternoon. This area appears to have the best combination of forecast instability and shear, and any thunderstorms which can form here could become severe while posing a threat for both isolated hail and damaging winds. However, low-level flow along/near the front is generally expected to remain veered to southwesterly, which should limit low-level convergence to some extent. Therefore, confidence in overall coverage of severe convection remains too low to include greater severe probabilities across northern Lower MI at this time. Mid-level flow and effective bulk shear values will decrease with southward extent across the Midwest into the southern Plains, away from any remnant MCV influences. This should tend to limit updraft organization with thunderstorms that develop this afternoon across these regions. Still, some potential should exist for loosely organized clusters given the linear low-level forcing. And with steep low-level lapse rates and moderate to strong instability, some of this convection may be capable of producing strong to locally severe winds through the early evening hours before eventually weakening with the loss of daytime heating. ...High Plains... Moderate instability should develop across parts of the northern/central High Plains this afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be weak behind a departing mid-level shortwave trough. Even so, convective development should occur near the adjacent higher terrain this afternoon. Effective shear of 25-40 kt will support some updraft organization. Initially discrete cells may pose an isolated threat for hail. Some outflow amalgamation/mergers could eventually occur, with a threat of strong to locally severe gusts spreading eastward into the evening before convection eventually weakens. Farther south across portions of the southern High Plains, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also expected to develop this afternoon/early evening. Deep-layer shear will remain weak across this region, but localized strong to severe outflow gusts may still be possible. ..Gleason/Grams.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will be possible from parts of the Great Lakes to the central and southern Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms will also pose a risk of hail and severe wind gusts over portions of the northern and central High Plains. ...Synopsis... Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow will be maintained today between an upper trough progressing slowly eastward over central Canada and the north-central CONUS, and upper ridging across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Multiple mid-level MCVs evident on satellite and radar should move generally east-northeastward across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes today. At the surface, a convectively reinforced front will be draped from Ontario/Quebec southwestward to the southern Plains. This front will likely serve as a focused for additional scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, some of which could become strong to severe on an isolated basis. ...Great Lakes into the Midwest and Central/Southern Plains... A moist and rather unstable airmass will exist along/ahead of the front today, as diurnal heating aids in the gradual steepening of low-level lapse rates. Stronger mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear should be present across parts of MI and vicinity. Some enhancement to the low/mid-level winds and modest ascent associated with an MCV over northeast WI this morning may also aid in thunderstorm development and organization downstream into parts of northern Lower MI by early afternoon. This area appears to have the best combination of forecast instability and shear, and any thunderstorms which can form here could become severe while posing a threat for both isolated hail and damaging winds. However, low-level flow along/near the front is generally expected to remain veered to southwesterly, which should limit low-level convergence to some extent. Therefore, confidence in overall coverage of severe convection remains too low to include greater severe probabilities across northern Lower MI at this time. Mid-level flow and effective bulk shear values will decrease with southward extent across the Midwest into the southern Plains, away from any remnant MCV influences. This should tend to limit updraft organization with thunderstorms that develop this afternoon across these regions. Still, some potential should exist for loosely organized clusters given the linear low-level forcing. And with steep low-level lapse rates and moderate to strong instability, some of this convection may be capable of producing strong to locally severe winds through the early evening hours before eventually weakening with the loss of daytime heating. ...High Plains... Moderate instability should develop across parts of the northern/central High Plains this afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be weak behind a departing mid-level shortwave trough. Even so, convective development should occur near the adjacent higher terrain this afternoon. Effective shear of 25-40 kt will support some updraft organization. Initially discrete cells may pose an isolated threat for hail. Some outflow amalgamation/mergers could eventually occur, with a threat of strong to locally severe gusts spreading eastward into the evening before convection eventually weakens. Farther south across portions of the southern High Plains, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also expected to develop this afternoon/early evening. Deep-layer shear will remain weak across this region, but localized strong to severe outflow gusts may still be possible. ..Gleason/Grams.. 07/24/2025 Read more