Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday through Saturday night, across parts of the Midwest into southern Great Lakes region and across parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. ...Midwest into southern Great Lakes region... Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered on the Southeast, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse will advance eastward from the Lower Missouri Valley into the southern Great Lakes region. A related cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, which should generally track eastward along a weak warm frontal zone extending from the Midwest through southern Great Lakes region. Diurnal heating/destabilization along the southern fringes of this activity may support an uptick in convective intensity through the afternoon -- given the development of moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy and around 30 kt of deep-layer shear. While the overall details remain unclear, damaging winds will be possible with any stronger storms that evolve. ...Northern Rockies into the Dakotas... Downstream of a broad large-scale trough over the West, guidance indicates one or more embedded midlevel perturbations advancing northeastward across the northern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains during the day. This should aid in the development of widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the region from the afternoon into the evening/overnight hours. Steep deep-layer lapse rates and modestly enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow should support some convective organization into clusters -- with a risk of strong to severe wind gusts. While strong-extreme surface-based buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear farther east into the Upper Midwest will pose a conditional severe risk, substantial inhibition at the base of an EML casts too much uncertainty to add severe probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday through Saturday night, across parts of the Midwest into southern Great Lakes region and across parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. ...Midwest into southern Great Lakes region... Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered on the Southeast, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse will advance eastward from the Lower Missouri Valley into the southern Great Lakes region. A related cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, which should generally track eastward along a weak warm frontal zone extending from the Midwest through southern Great Lakes region. Diurnal heating/destabilization along the southern fringes of this activity may support an uptick in convective intensity through the afternoon -- given the development of moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy and around 30 kt of deep-layer shear. While the overall details remain unclear, damaging winds will be possible with any stronger storms that evolve. ...Northern Rockies into the Dakotas... Downstream of a broad large-scale trough over the West, guidance indicates one or more embedded midlevel perturbations advancing northeastward across the northern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains during the day. This should aid in the development of widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the region from the afternoon into the evening/overnight hours. Steep deep-layer lapse rates and modestly enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow should support some convective organization into clusters -- with a risk of strong to severe wind gusts. While strong-extreme surface-based buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear farther east into the Upper Midwest will pose a conditional severe risk, substantial inhibition at the base of an EML casts too much uncertainty to add severe probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday through Saturday night, across parts of the Midwest into southern Great Lakes region and across parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. ...Midwest into southern Great Lakes region... Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered on the Southeast, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse will advance eastward from the Lower Missouri Valley into the southern Great Lakes region. A related cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, which should generally track eastward along a weak warm frontal zone extending from the Midwest through southern Great Lakes region. Diurnal heating/destabilization along the southern fringes of this activity may support an uptick in convective intensity through the afternoon -- given the development of moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy and around 30 kt of deep-layer shear. While the overall details remain unclear, damaging winds will be possible with any stronger storms that evolve. ...Northern Rockies into the Dakotas... Downstream of a broad large-scale trough over the West, guidance indicates one or more embedded midlevel perturbations advancing northeastward across the northern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains during the day. This should aid in the development of widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the region from the afternoon into the evening/overnight hours. Steep deep-layer lapse rates and modestly enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow should support some convective organization into clusters -- with a risk of strong to severe wind gusts. While strong-extreme surface-based buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear farther east into the Upper Midwest will pose a conditional severe risk, substantial inhibition at the base of an EML casts too much uncertainty to add severe probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday through Saturday night, across parts of the Midwest into southern Great Lakes region and across parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. ...Midwest into southern Great Lakes region... Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered on the Southeast, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse will advance eastward from the Lower Missouri Valley into the southern Great Lakes region. A related cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, which should generally track eastward along a weak warm frontal zone extending from the Midwest through southern Great Lakes region. Diurnal heating/destabilization along the southern fringes of this activity may support an uptick in convective intensity through the afternoon -- given the development of moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy and around 30 kt of deep-layer shear. While the overall details remain unclear, damaging winds will be possible with any stronger storms that evolve. ...Northern Rockies into the Dakotas... Downstream of a broad large-scale trough over the West, guidance indicates one or more embedded midlevel perturbations advancing northeastward across the northern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains during the day. This should aid in the development of widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the region from the afternoon into the evening/overnight hours. Steep deep-layer lapse rates and modestly enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow should support some convective organization into clusters -- with a risk of strong to severe wind gusts. While strong-extreme surface-based buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear farther east into the Upper Midwest will pose a conditional severe risk, substantial inhibition at the base of an EML casts too much uncertainty to add severe probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday through Saturday night, across parts of the Midwest into southern Great Lakes region and across parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. ...Midwest into southern Great Lakes region... Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered on the Southeast, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse will advance eastward from the Lower Missouri Valley into the southern Great Lakes region. A related cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, which should generally track eastward along a weak warm frontal zone extending from the Midwest through southern Great Lakes region. Diurnal heating/destabilization along the southern fringes of this activity may support an uptick in convective intensity through the afternoon -- given the development of moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy and around 30 kt of deep-layer shear. While the overall details remain unclear, damaging winds will be possible with any stronger storms that evolve. ...Northern Rockies into the Dakotas... Downstream of a broad large-scale trough over the West, guidance indicates one or more embedded midlevel perturbations advancing northeastward across the northern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains during the day. This should aid in the development of widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the region from the afternoon into the evening/overnight hours. Steep deep-layer lapse rates and modestly enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow should support some convective organization into clusters -- with a risk of strong to severe wind gusts. While strong-extreme surface-based buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear farther east into the Upper Midwest will pose a conditional severe risk, substantial inhibition at the base of an EML casts too much uncertainty to add severe probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday through Saturday night, across parts of the Midwest into southern Great Lakes region and across parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. ...Midwest into southern Great Lakes region... Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered on the Southeast, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse will advance eastward from the Lower Missouri Valley into the southern Great Lakes region. A related cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, which should generally track eastward along a weak warm frontal zone extending from the Midwest through southern Great Lakes region. Diurnal heating/destabilization along the southern fringes of this activity may support an uptick in convective intensity through the afternoon -- given the development of moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy and around 30 kt of deep-layer shear. While the overall details remain unclear, damaging winds will be possible with any stronger storms that evolve. ...Northern Rockies into the Dakotas... Downstream of a broad large-scale trough over the West, guidance indicates one or more embedded midlevel perturbations advancing northeastward across the northern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains during the day. This should aid in the development of widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the region from the afternoon into the evening/overnight hours. Steep deep-layer lapse rates and modestly enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow should support some convective organization into clusters -- with a risk of strong to severe wind gusts. While strong-extreme surface-based buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear farther east into the Upper Midwest will pose a conditional severe risk, substantial inhibition at the base of an EML casts too much uncertainty to add severe probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/24/2025 Read more

WW 0540 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0540 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0540 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0540 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0540 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0540 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Jul 24 19:13:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid Atlantic on Friday. Isolated severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern and central Plains. ...Northeast into the Northern Mid-Atlantic... A robust midlevel trough will advance eastward across Quebec and parts of New England through the day, while a related belt of 30-40 kt midlevel westerly flow overspreads the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic. At the same time, a cold front will move southward across the region through the afternoon. As widely scattered thunderstorms along the front intercept a moist/destabilizing pre-convective air mass (upwards of 2500 J/kg MLCAPE), around 30 kt of effective shear will promote organized clusters, small line segments, and possibly some supercell structures. The enhanced low/midlevel flow, steepening boundary-layer lapse rates, and expected clustering will support scattered wind damage across the region. A Slight risk was added where confidence is highest in the overlap of scattered organized storms, highest buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer flow/shear. ...Northern Plains... Within a belt of enhanced midlevel westerly flow, guidance indicates a subtle/embedded midlevel perturbation moving into the northern Plains during the afternoon. This should aid in diurnally driven high-based thunderstorm development over the northern High Plains, before spreading eastward into an increasingly moist/unstable air mass. An elongated hodograph and steep deep-layer lapse rates/moderate buoyancy will support a couple organized storms initially capable or producing large hail and locally severe gusts. As storms track eastward, upscale growth into an organized cluster is possible -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet. A separate area of thunderstorm development is possible farther east, where warm advection and an enlarged/curved hodograph will support damaging winds and possibly a brief tornado risk. ...Eastern KS... Thunderstorms are expected ahead of a convectively augmented compact wave moving east-northeastward across the central Plains. Pockets of diurnal heating amid rich boundary-layer moisture and a clockwise-curved hodograph will support a couple organized storms including supercells. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado will be possible with the stronger storms that can evolve. ..Weinman.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid Atlantic on Friday. Isolated severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern and central Plains. ...Northeast into the Northern Mid-Atlantic... A robust midlevel trough will advance eastward across Quebec and parts of New England through the day, while a related belt of 30-40 kt midlevel westerly flow overspreads the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic. At the same time, a cold front will move southward across the region through the afternoon. As widely scattered thunderstorms along the front intercept a moist/destabilizing pre-convective air mass (upwards of 2500 J/kg MLCAPE), around 30 kt of effective shear will promote organized clusters, small line segments, and possibly some supercell structures. The enhanced low/midlevel flow, steepening boundary-layer lapse rates, and expected clustering will support scattered wind damage across the region. A Slight risk was added where confidence is highest in the overlap of scattered organized storms, highest buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer flow/shear. ...Northern Plains... Within a belt of enhanced midlevel westerly flow, guidance indicates a subtle/embedded midlevel perturbation moving into the northern Plains during the afternoon. This should aid in diurnally driven high-based thunderstorm development over the northern High Plains, before spreading eastward into an increasingly moist/unstable air mass. An elongated hodograph and steep deep-layer lapse rates/moderate buoyancy will support a couple organized storms initially capable or producing large hail and locally severe gusts. As storms track eastward, upscale growth into an organized cluster is possible -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet. A separate area of thunderstorm development is possible farther east, where warm advection and an enlarged/curved hodograph will support damaging winds and possibly a brief tornado risk. ...Eastern KS... Thunderstorms are expected ahead of a convectively augmented compact wave moving east-northeastward across the central Plains. Pockets of diurnal heating amid rich boundary-layer moisture and a clockwise-curved hodograph will support a couple organized storms including supercells. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado will be possible with the stronger storms that can evolve. ..Weinman.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid Atlantic on Friday. Isolated severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern and central Plains. ...Northeast into the Northern Mid-Atlantic... A robust midlevel trough will advance eastward across Quebec and parts of New England through the day, while a related belt of 30-40 kt midlevel westerly flow overspreads the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic. At the same time, a cold front will move southward across the region through the afternoon. As widely scattered thunderstorms along the front intercept a moist/destabilizing pre-convective air mass (upwards of 2500 J/kg MLCAPE), around 30 kt of effective shear will promote organized clusters, small line segments, and possibly some supercell structures. The enhanced low/midlevel flow, steepening boundary-layer lapse rates, and expected clustering will support scattered wind damage across the region. A Slight risk was added where confidence is highest in the overlap of scattered organized storms, highest buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer flow/shear. ...Northern Plains... Within a belt of enhanced midlevel westerly flow, guidance indicates a subtle/embedded midlevel perturbation moving into the northern Plains during the afternoon. This should aid in diurnally driven high-based thunderstorm development over the northern High Plains, before spreading eastward into an increasingly moist/unstable air mass. An elongated hodograph and steep deep-layer lapse rates/moderate buoyancy will support a couple organized storms initially capable or producing large hail and locally severe gusts. As storms track eastward, upscale growth into an organized cluster is possible -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet. A separate area of thunderstorm development is possible farther east, where warm advection and an enlarged/curved hodograph will support damaging winds and possibly a brief tornado risk. ...Eastern KS... Thunderstorms are expected ahead of a convectively augmented compact wave moving east-northeastward across the central Plains. Pockets of diurnal heating amid rich boundary-layer moisture and a clockwise-curved hodograph will support a couple organized storms including supercells. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado will be possible with the stronger storms that can evolve. ..Weinman.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid Atlantic on Friday. Isolated severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern and central Plains. ...Northeast into the Northern Mid-Atlantic... A robust midlevel trough will advance eastward across Quebec and parts of New England through the day, while a related belt of 30-40 kt midlevel westerly flow overspreads the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic. At the same time, a cold front will move southward across the region through the afternoon. As widely scattered thunderstorms along the front intercept a moist/destabilizing pre-convective air mass (upwards of 2500 J/kg MLCAPE), around 30 kt of effective shear will promote organized clusters, small line segments, and possibly some supercell structures. The enhanced low/midlevel flow, steepening boundary-layer lapse rates, and expected clustering will support scattered wind damage across the region. A Slight risk was added where confidence is highest in the overlap of scattered organized storms, highest buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer flow/shear. ...Northern Plains... Within a belt of enhanced midlevel westerly flow, guidance indicates a subtle/embedded midlevel perturbation moving into the northern Plains during the afternoon. This should aid in diurnally driven high-based thunderstorm development over the northern High Plains, before spreading eastward into an increasingly moist/unstable air mass. An elongated hodograph and steep deep-layer lapse rates/moderate buoyancy will support a couple organized storms initially capable or producing large hail and locally severe gusts. As storms track eastward, upscale growth into an organized cluster is possible -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet. A separate area of thunderstorm development is possible farther east, where warm advection and an enlarged/curved hodograph will support damaging winds and possibly a brief tornado risk. ...Eastern KS... Thunderstorms are expected ahead of a convectively augmented compact wave moving east-northeastward across the central Plains. Pockets of diurnal heating amid rich boundary-layer moisture and a clockwise-curved hodograph will support a couple organized storms including supercells. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado will be possible with the stronger storms that can evolve. ..Weinman.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid Atlantic on Friday. Isolated severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern and central Plains. ...Northeast into the Northern Mid-Atlantic... A robust midlevel trough will advance eastward across Quebec and parts of New England through the day, while a related belt of 30-40 kt midlevel westerly flow overspreads the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic. At the same time, a cold front will move southward across the region through the afternoon. As widely scattered thunderstorms along the front intercept a moist/destabilizing pre-convective air mass (upwards of 2500 J/kg MLCAPE), around 30 kt of effective shear will promote organized clusters, small line segments, and possibly some supercell structures. The enhanced low/midlevel flow, steepening boundary-layer lapse rates, and expected clustering will support scattered wind damage across the region. A Slight risk was added where confidence is highest in the overlap of scattered organized storms, highest buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer flow/shear. ...Northern Plains... Within a belt of enhanced midlevel westerly flow, guidance indicates a subtle/embedded midlevel perturbation moving into the northern Plains during the afternoon. This should aid in diurnally driven high-based thunderstorm development over the northern High Plains, before spreading eastward into an increasingly moist/unstable air mass. An elongated hodograph and steep deep-layer lapse rates/moderate buoyancy will support a couple organized storms initially capable or producing large hail and locally severe gusts. As storms track eastward, upscale growth into an organized cluster is possible -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet. A separate area of thunderstorm development is possible farther east, where warm advection and an enlarged/curved hodograph will support damaging winds and possibly a brief tornado risk. ...Eastern KS... Thunderstorms are expected ahead of a convectively augmented compact wave moving east-northeastward across the central Plains. Pockets of diurnal heating amid rich boundary-layer moisture and a clockwise-curved hodograph will support a couple organized storms including supercells. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado will be possible with the stronger storms that can evolve. ..Weinman.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid Atlantic on Friday. Isolated severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern and central Plains. ...Northeast into the Northern Mid-Atlantic... A robust midlevel trough will advance eastward across Quebec and parts of New England through the day, while a related belt of 30-40 kt midlevel westerly flow overspreads the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic. At the same time, a cold front will move southward across the region through the afternoon. As widely scattered thunderstorms along the front intercept a moist/destabilizing pre-convective air mass (upwards of 2500 J/kg MLCAPE), around 30 kt of effective shear will promote organized clusters, small line segments, and possibly some supercell structures. The enhanced low/midlevel flow, steepening boundary-layer lapse rates, and expected clustering will support scattered wind damage across the region. A Slight risk was added where confidence is highest in the overlap of scattered organized storms, highest buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer flow/shear. ...Northern Plains... Within a belt of enhanced midlevel westerly flow, guidance indicates a subtle/embedded midlevel perturbation moving into the northern Plains during the afternoon. This should aid in diurnally driven high-based thunderstorm development over the northern High Plains, before spreading eastward into an increasingly moist/unstable air mass. An elongated hodograph and steep deep-layer lapse rates/moderate buoyancy will support a couple organized storms initially capable or producing large hail and locally severe gusts. As storms track eastward, upscale growth into an organized cluster is possible -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet. A separate area of thunderstorm development is possible farther east, where warm advection and an enlarged/curved hodograph will support damaging winds and possibly a brief tornado risk. ...Eastern KS... Thunderstorms are expected ahead of a convectively augmented compact wave moving east-northeastward across the central Plains. Pockets of diurnal heating amid rich boundary-layer moisture and a clockwise-curved hodograph will support a couple organized storms including supercells. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado will be possible with the stronger storms that can evolve. ..Weinman.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid Atlantic on Friday. Isolated severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern and central Plains. ...Northeast into the Northern Mid-Atlantic... A robust midlevel trough will advance eastward across Quebec and parts of New England through the day, while a related belt of 30-40 kt midlevel westerly flow overspreads the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic. At the same time, a cold front will move southward across the region through the afternoon. As widely scattered thunderstorms along the front intercept a moist/destabilizing pre-convective air mass (upwards of 2500 J/kg MLCAPE), around 30 kt of effective shear will promote organized clusters, small line segments, and possibly some supercell structures. The enhanced low/midlevel flow, steepening boundary-layer lapse rates, and expected clustering will support scattered wind damage across the region. A Slight risk was added where confidence is highest in the overlap of scattered organized storms, highest buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer flow/shear. ...Northern Plains... Within a belt of enhanced midlevel westerly flow, guidance indicates a subtle/embedded midlevel perturbation moving into the northern Plains during the afternoon. This should aid in diurnally driven high-based thunderstorm development over the northern High Plains, before spreading eastward into an increasingly moist/unstable air mass. An elongated hodograph and steep deep-layer lapse rates/moderate buoyancy will support a couple organized storms initially capable or producing large hail and locally severe gusts. As storms track eastward, upscale growth into an organized cluster is possible -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet. A separate area of thunderstorm development is possible farther east, where warm advection and an enlarged/curved hodograph will support damaging winds and possibly a brief tornado risk. ...Eastern KS... Thunderstorms are expected ahead of a convectively augmented compact wave moving east-northeastward across the central Plains. Pockets of diurnal heating amid rich boundary-layer moisture and a clockwise-curved hodograph will support a couple organized storms including supercells. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado will be possible with the stronger storms that can evolve. ..Weinman.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid Atlantic on Friday. Isolated severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern and central Plains. ...Northeast into the Northern Mid-Atlantic... A robust midlevel trough will advance eastward across Quebec and parts of New England through the day, while a related belt of 30-40 kt midlevel westerly flow overspreads the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic. At the same time, a cold front will move southward across the region through the afternoon. As widely scattered thunderstorms along the front intercept a moist/destabilizing pre-convective air mass (upwards of 2500 J/kg MLCAPE), around 30 kt of effective shear will promote organized clusters, small line segments, and possibly some supercell structures. The enhanced low/midlevel flow, steepening boundary-layer lapse rates, and expected clustering will support scattered wind damage across the region. A Slight risk was added where confidence is highest in the overlap of scattered organized storms, highest buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer flow/shear. ...Northern Plains... Within a belt of enhanced midlevel westerly flow, guidance indicates a subtle/embedded midlevel perturbation moving into the northern Plains during the afternoon. This should aid in diurnally driven high-based thunderstorm development over the northern High Plains, before spreading eastward into an increasingly moist/unstable air mass. An elongated hodograph and steep deep-layer lapse rates/moderate buoyancy will support a couple organized storms initially capable or producing large hail and locally severe gusts. As storms track eastward, upscale growth into an organized cluster is possible -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet. A separate area of thunderstorm development is possible farther east, where warm advection and an enlarged/curved hodograph will support damaging winds and possibly a brief tornado risk. ...Eastern KS... Thunderstorms are expected ahead of a convectively augmented compact wave moving east-northeastward across the central Plains. Pockets of diurnal heating amid rich boundary-layer moisture and a clockwise-curved hodograph will support a couple organized storms including supercells. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado will be possible with the stronger storms that can evolve. ..Weinman.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid Atlantic on Friday. Isolated severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern and central Plains. ...Northeast into the Northern Mid-Atlantic... A robust midlevel trough will advance eastward across Quebec and parts of New England through the day, while a related belt of 30-40 kt midlevel westerly flow overspreads the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic. At the same time, a cold front will move southward across the region through the afternoon. As widely scattered thunderstorms along the front intercept a moist/destabilizing pre-convective air mass (upwards of 2500 J/kg MLCAPE), around 30 kt of effective shear will promote organized clusters, small line segments, and possibly some supercell structures. The enhanced low/midlevel flow, steepening boundary-layer lapse rates, and expected clustering will support scattered wind damage across the region. A Slight risk was added where confidence is highest in the overlap of scattered organized storms, highest buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer flow/shear. ...Northern Plains... Within a belt of enhanced midlevel westerly flow, guidance indicates a subtle/embedded midlevel perturbation moving into the northern Plains during the afternoon. This should aid in diurnally driven high-based thunderstorm development over the northern High Plains, before spreading eastward into an increasingly moist/unstable air mass. An elongated hodograph and steep deep-layer lapse rates/moderate buoyancy will support a couple organized storms initially capable or producing large hail and locally severe gusts. As storms track eastward, upscale growth into an organized cluster is possible -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet. A separate area of thunderstorm development is possible farther east, where warm advection and an enlarged/curved hodograph will support damaging winds and possibly a brief tornado risk. ...Eastern KS... Thunderstorms are expected ahead of a convectively augmented compact wave moving east-northeastward across the central Plains. Pockets of diurnal heating amid rich boundary-layer moisture and a clockwise-curved hodograph will support a couple organized storms including supercells. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado will be possible with the stronger storms that can evolve. ..Weinman.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid Atlantic on Friday. Isolated severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern and central Plains. ...Northeast into the Northern Mid-Atlantic... A robust midlevel trough will advance eastward across Quebec and parts of New England through the day, while a related belt of 30-40 kt midlevel westerly flow overspreads the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic. At the same time, a cold front will move southward across the region through the afternoon. As widely scattered thunderstorms along the front intercept a moist/destabilizing pre-convective air mass (upwards of 2500 J/kg MLCAPE), around 30 kt of effective shear will promote organized clusters, small line segments, and possibly some supercell structures. The enhanced low/midlevel flow, steepening boundary-layer lapse rates, and expected clustering will support scattered wind damage across the region. A Slight risk was added where confidence is highest in the overlap of scattered organized storms, highest buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer flow/shear. ...Northern Plains... Within a belt of enhanced midlevel westerly flow, guidance indicates a subtle/embedded midlevel perturbation moving into the northern Plains during the afternoon. This should aid in diurnally driven high-based thunderstorm development over the northern High Plains, before spreading eastward into an increasingly moist/unstable air mass. An elongated hodograph and steep deep-layer lapse rates/moderate buoyancy will support a couple organized storms initially capable or producing large hail and locally severe gusts. As storms track eastward, upscale growth into an organized cluster is possible -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet. A separate area of thunderstorm development is possible farther east, where warm advection and an enlarged/curved hodograph will support damaging winds and possibly a brief tornado risk. ...Eastern KS... Thunderstorms are expected ahead of a convectively augmented compact wave moving east-northeastward across the central Plains. Pockets of diurnal heating amid rich boundary-layer moisture and a clockwise-curved hodograph will support a couple organized storms including supercells. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado will be possible with the stronger storms that can evolve. ..Weinman.. 07/24/2025 Read more