Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are possible from parts of the Great Lakes to the central and southern Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms will also pose a risk of hail and severe wind gusts over portions of the northern and central High Plains. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track. Thunderstorm development is underway across portions of northern IL, which should intensify and track into northern IN and southern MI through the evening hours. Severe hail/wind risk probabilities were reduced across far northern lower MI due to the recent passage of deep convection and an influx of cooler/lower theta-e air. See the previous discussion below as well as MCDs #1771 and #1772 for additional details. ..Moore.. 07/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025/ ...Northern Lower Michigan... Ahead of an MCV, a well-organized cluster of storms will pose at a short-term severe risk across far northern Lower Michigan early this afternoon, although there is some potential for additional development southwestward along the front this afternoon. ...Midwest/Lake Michigan vicinity to south-central Plains... Aside from an MCV nearing northern Lake Michigan, at least one additional eastward-moving MCV exists across eastern Iowa, nearing the southwest Wisconsin/northwest Illinois border vicinity as of midday. Some multi-layer cloud debris still persists, and a pre-frontal veering of winds (westerly component) has occurred in some areas. However, heating of a very moist air mass (70s F surface dewpoints) will lead to strong destabilization (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) and relatively weak boundary-layer inhibition this afternoon near/ahead of the front. Most 12z global guidance/HREF members are more aggressive in the coverage/intensity of convection than morning HRRR/RRFS/MPAS runs, particularly for northern portions of Illinois/Indiana into Lower Michigan. Where deep convection does develop/sustain this afternoon, MCV-aided enhancement of low/mid-tropospheric flow will support some well-organized bands/clusters of storms with wind damage as the most common severe risk across northern Missouri, northern portions of Illinois/Indiana, into Lower Michigan. A more localized/pulse-type severe risk is anticipated farther southwest into southern Kansas/northwest Oklahoma. ...High Plains... Moderate instability will develop across parts of the northern/central High Plains this afternoon. Large-scale ascent will tend to be weak behind a departing mid-level shortwave trough. Even so, convective development should occur near the adjacent higher terrain this afternoon. Effective shear of 25-40 kt will support some updraft organization. Initially discrete cells may pose an isolated threat for hail. Some outflow amalgamation/mergers could eventually occur, with a threat of strong to locally severe gusts spreading eastward into the evening before convection eventually weakens. Farther south across portions of the southern High Plains, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also expected to develop this afternoon/early evening. Deep-layer shear will remain weak across this region, but localized strong to severe outflow gusts may still be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are possible from parts of the Great Lakes to the central and southern Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms will also pose a risk of hail and severe wind gusts over portions of the northern and central High Plains. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track. Thunderstorm development is underway across portions of northern IL, which should intensify and track into northern IN and southern MI through the evening hours. Severe hail/wind risk probabilities were reduced across far northern lower MI due to the recent passage of deep convection and an influx of cooler/lower theta-e air. See the previous discussion below as well as MCDs #1771 and #1772 for additional details. ..Moore.. 07/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025/ ...Northern Lower Michigan... Ahead of an MCV, a well-organized cluster of storms will pose at a short-term severe risk across far northern Lower Michigan early this afternoon, although there is some potential for additional development southwestward along the front this afternoon. ...Midwest/Lake Michigan vicinity to south-central Plains... Aside from an MCV nearing northern Lake Michigan, at least one additional eastward-moving MCV exists across eastern Iowa, nearing the southwest Wisconsin/northwest Illinois border vicinity as of midday. Some multi-layer cloud debris still persists, and a pre-frontal veering of winds (westerly component) has occurred in some areas. However, heating of a very moist air mass (70s F surface dewpoints) will lead to strong destabilization (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) and relatively weak boundary-layer inhibition this afternoon near/ahead of the front. Most 12z global guidance/HREF members are more aggressive in the coverage/intensity of convection than morning HRRR/RRFS/MPAS runs, particularly for northern portions of Illinois/Indiana into Lower Michigan. Where deep convection does develop/sustain this afternoon, MCV-aided enhancement of low/mid-tropospheric flow will support some well-organized bands/clusters of storms with wind damage as the most common severe risk across northern Missouri, northern portions of Illinois/Indiana, into Lower Michigan. A more localized/pulse-type severe risk is anticipated farther southwest into southern Kansas/northwest Oklahoma. ...High Plains... Moderate instability will develop across parts of the northern/central High Plains this afternoon. Large-scale ascent will tend to be weak behind a departing mid-level shortwave trough. Even so, convective development should occur near the adjacent higher terrain this afternoon. Effective shear of 25-40 kt will support some updraft organization. Initially discrete cells may pose an isolated threat for hail. Some outflow amalgamation/mergers could eventually occur, with a threat of strong to locally severe gusts spreading eastward into the evening before convection eventually weakens. Farther south across portions of the southern High Plains, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also expected to develop this afternoon/early evening. Deep-layer shear will remain weak across this region, but localized strong to severe outflow gusts may still be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are possible from parts of the Great Lakes to the central and southern Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms will also pose a risk of hail and severe wind gusts over portions of the northern and central High Plains. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track. Thunderstorm development is underway across portions of northern IL, which should intensify and track into northern IN and southern MI through the evening hours. Severe hail/wind risk probabilities were reduced across far northern lower MI due to the recent passage of deep convection and an influx of cooler/lower theta-e air. See the previous discussion below as well as MCDs #1771 and #1772 for additional details. ..Moore.. 07/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025/ ...Northern Lower Michigan... Ahead of an MCV, a well-organized cluster of storms will pose at a short-term severe risk across far northern Lower Michigan early this afternoon, although there is some potential for additional development southwestward along the front this afternoon. ...Midwest/Lake Michigan vicinity to south-central Plains... Aside from an MCV nearing northern Lake Michigan, at least one additional eastward-moving MCV exists across eastern Iowa, nearing the southwest Wisconsin/northwest Illinois border vicinity as of midday. Some multi-layer cloud debris still persists, and a pre-frontal veering of winds (westerly component) has occurred in some areas. However, heating of a very moist air mass (70s F surface dewpoints) will lead to strong destabilization (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) and relatively weak boundary-layer inhibition this afternoon near/ahead of the front. Most 12z global guidance/HREF members are more aggressive in the coverage/intensity of convection than morning HRRR/RRFS/MPAS runs, particularly for northern portions of Illinois/Indiana into Lower Michigan. Where deep convection does develop/sustain this afternoon, MCV-aided enhancement of low/mid-tropospheric flow will support some well-organized bands/clusters of storms with wind damage as the most common severe risk across northern Missouri, northern portions of Illinois/Indiana, into Lower Michigan. A more localized/pulse-type severe risk is anticipated farther southwest into southern Kansas/northwest Oklahoma. ...High Plains... Moderate instability will develop across parts of the northern/central High Plains this afternoon. Large-scale ascent will tend to be weak behind a departing mid-level shortwave trough. Even so, convective development should occur near the adjacent higher terrain this afternoon. Effective shear of 25-40 kt will support some updraft organization. Initially discrete cells may pose an isolated threat for hail. Some outflow amalgamation/mergers could eventually occur, with a threat of strong to locally severe gusts spreading eastward into the evening before convection eventually weakens. Farther south across portions of the southern High Plains, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also expected to develop this afternoon/early evening. Deep-layer shear will remain weak across this region, but localized strong to severe outflow gusts may still be possible. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Update... Only very subtle changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Friday based on recent NWP trends. This included a slight extension northeastward into far southwestern MT where fuels remain receptive due to a lack of recent rainfall, and a slight extension westward into far northern CA/Sierra where lower PWATs and expected QPF may still support a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will continue inland on D2/Friday, with more widely scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will remain possible on the periphery of the deeper moisture. As such, an area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm potential was maintained across the portions of the Sierras in northern California into eastern Oregon, northern Nevada, and central Idaho. Here, lower QPF amounts are forecast and fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Update... Only very subtle changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Friday based on recent NWP trends. This included a slight extension northeastward into far southwestern MT where fuels remain receptive due to a lack of recent rainfall, and a slight extension westward into far northern CA/Sierra where lower PWATs and expected QPF may still support a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will continue inland on D2/Friday, with more widely scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will remain possible on the periphery of the deeper moisture. As such, an area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm potential was maintained across the portions of the Sierras in northern California into eastern Oregon, northern Nevada, and central Idaho. Here, lower QPF amounts are forecast and fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Update... Only very subtle changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Friday based on recent NWP trends. This included a slight extension northeastward into far southwestern MT where fuels remain receptive due to a lack of recent rainfall, and a slight extension westward into far northern CA/Sierra where lower PWATs and expected QPF may still support a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will continue inland on D2/Friday, with more widely scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will remain possible on the periphery of the deeper moisture. As such, an area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm potential was maintained across the portions of the Sierras in northern California into eastern Oregon, northern Nevada, and central Idaho. Here, lower QPF amounts are forecast and fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Update... Only very subtle changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Friday based on recent NWP trends. This included a slight extension northeastward into far southwestern MT where fuels remain receptive due to a lack of recent rainfall, and a slight extension westward into far northern CA/Sierra where lower PWATs and expected QPF may still support a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will continue inland on D2/Friday, with more widely scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will remain possible on the periphery of the deeper moisture. As such, an area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm potential was maintained across the portions of the Sierras in northern California into eastern Oregon, northern Nevada, and central Idaho. Here, lower QPF amounts are forecast and fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Update... Only very subtle changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Friday based on recent NWP trends. This included a slight extension northeastward into far southwestern MT where fuels remain receptive due to a lack of recent rainfall, and a slight extension westward into far northern CA/Sierra where lower PWATs and expected QPF may still support a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will continue inland on D2/Friday, with more widely scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will remain possible on the periphery of the deeper moisture. As such, an area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm potential was maintained across the portions of the Sierras in northern California into eastern Oregon, northern Nevada, and central Idaho. Here, lower QPF amounts are forecast and fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Update... Only very subtle changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Friday based on recent NWP trends. This included a slight extension northeastward into far southwestern MT where fuels remain receptive due to a lack of recent rainfall, and a slight extension westward into far northern CA/Sierra where lower PWATs and expected QPF may still support a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will continue inland on D2/Friday, with more widely scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will remain possible on the periphery of the deeper moisture. As such, an area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm potential was maintained across the portions of the Sierras in northern California into eastern Oregon, northern Nevada, and central Idaho. Here, lower QPF amounts are forecast and fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Update... Only very subtle changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Friday based on recent NWP trends. This included a slight extension northeastward into far southwestern MT where fuels remain receptive due to a lack of recent rainfall, and a slight extension westward into far northern CA/Sierra where lower PWATs and expected QPF may still support a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will continue inland on D2/Friday, with more widely scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will remain possible on the periphery of the deeper moisture. As such, an area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm potential was maintained across the portions of the Sierras in northern California into eastern Oregon, northern Nevada, and central Idaho. Here, lower QPF amounts are forecast and fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Update... Only very subtle changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Friday based on recent NWP trends. This included a slight extension northeastward into far southwestern MT where fuels remain receptive due to a lack of recent rainfall, and a slight extension westward into far northern CA/Sierra where lower PWATs and expected QPF may still support a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will continue inland on D2/Friday, with more widely scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will remain possible on the periphery of the deeper moisture. As such, an area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm potential was maintained across the portions of the Sierras in northern California into eastern Oregon, northern Nevada, and central Idaho. Here, lower QPF amounts are forecast and fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Update... Only very subtle changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Friday based on recent NWP trends. This included a slight extension northeastward into far southwestern MT where fuels remain receptive due to a lack of recent rainfall, and a slight extension westward into far northern CA/Sierra where lower PWATs and expected QPF may still support a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will continue inland on D2/Friday, with more widely scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will remain possible on the periphery of the deeper moisture. As such, an area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm potential was maintained across the portions of the Sierras in northern California into eastern Oregon, northern Nevada, and central Idaho. Here, lower QPF amounts are forecast and fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Update... Only very subtle changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Friday based on recent NWP trends. This included a slight extension northeastward into far southwestern MT where fuels remain receptive due to a lack of recent rainfall, and a slight extension westward into far northern CA/Sierra where lower PWATs and expected QPF may still support a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will continue inland on D2/Friday, with more widely scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will remain possible on the periphery of the deeper moisture. As such, an area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm potential was maintained across the portions of the Sierras in northern California into eastern Oregon, northern Nevada, and central Idaho. Here, lower QPF amounts are forecast and fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Update... Only very subtle changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Friday based on recent NWP trends. This included a slight extension northeastward into far southwestern MT where fuels remain receptive due to a lack of recent rainfall, and a slight extension westward into far northern CA/Sierra where lower PWATs and expected QPF may still support a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will continue inland on D2/Friday, with more widely scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will remain possible on the periphery of the deeper moisture. As such, an area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm potential was maintained across the portions of the Sierras in northern California into eastern Oregon, northern Nevada, and central Idaho. Here, lower QPF amounts are forecast and fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Update... Only very subtle changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Friday based on recent NWP trends. This included a slight extension northeastward into far southwestern MT where fuels remain receptive due to a lack of recent rainfall, and a slight extension westward into far northern CA/Sierra where lower PWATs and expected QPF may still support a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will continue inland on D2/Friday, with more widely scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will remain possible on the periphery of the deeper moisture. As such, an area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm potential was maintained across the portions of the Sierras in northern California into eastern Oregon, northern Nevada, and central Idaho. Here, lower QPF amounts are forecast and fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Update... Only very subtle changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Friday based on recent NWP trends. This included a slight extension northeastward into far southwestern MT where fuels remain receptive due to a lack of recent rainfall, and a slight extension westward into far northern CA/Sierra where lower PWATs and expected QPF may still support a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will continue inland on D2/Friday, with more widely scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will remain possible on the periphery of the deeper moisture. As such, an area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm potential was maintained across the portions of the Sierras in northern California into eastern Oregon, northern Nevada, and central Idaho. Here, lower QPF amounts are forecast and fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Update... Only very subtle changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Friday based on recent NWP trends. This included a slight extension northeastward into far southwestern MT where fuels remain receptive due to a lack of recent rainfall, and a slight extension westward into far northern CA/Sierra where lower PWATs and expected QPF may still support a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will continue inland on D2/Friday, with more widely scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will remain possible on the periphery of the deeper moisture. As such, an area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm potential was maintained across the portions of the Sierras in northern California into eastern Oregon, northern Nevada, and central Idaho. Here, lower QPF amounts are forecast and fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday through Saturday night, across parts of the Midwest into southern Great Lakes region and across parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. ...Midwest into southern Great Lakes region... Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered on the Southeast, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse will advance eastward from the Lower Missouri Valley into the southern Great Lakes region. A related cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, which should generally track eastward along a weak warm frontal zone extending from the Midwest through southern Great Lakes region. Diurnal heating/destabilization along the southern fringes of this activity may support an uptick in convective intensity through the afternoon -- given the development of moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy and around 30 kt of deep-layer shear. While the overall details remain unclear, damaging winds will be possible with any stronger storms that evolve. ...Northern Rockies into the Dakotas... Downstream of a broad large-scale trough over the West, guidance indicates one or more embedded midlevel perturbations advancing northeastward across the northern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains during the day. This should aid in the development of widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the region from the afternoon into the evening/overnight hours. Steep deep-layer lapse rates and modestly enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow should support some convective organization into clusters -- with a risk of strong to severe wind gusts. While strong-extreme surface-based buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear farther east into the Upper Midwest will pose a conditional severe risk, substantial inhibition at the base of an EML casts too much uncertainty to add severe probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday through Saturday night, across parts of the Midwest into southern Great Lakes region and across parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. ...Midwest into southern Great Lakes region... Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered on the Southeast, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse will advance eastward from the Lower Missouri Valley into the southern Great Lakes region. A related cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, which should generally track eastward along a weak warm frontal zone extending from the Midwest through southern Great Lakes region. Diurnal heating/destabilization along the southern fringes of this activity may support an uptick in convective intensity through the afternoon -- given the development of moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy and around 30 kt of deep-layer shear. While the overall details remain unclear, damaging winds will be possible with any stronger storms that evolve. ...Northern Rockies into the Dakotas... Downstream of a broad large-scale trough over the West, guidance indicates one or more embedded midlevel perturbations advancing northeastward across the northern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains during the day. This should aid in the development of widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the region from the afternoon into the evening/overnight hours. Steep deep-layer lapse rates and modestly enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow should support some convective organization into clusters -- with a risk of strong to severe wind gusts. While strong-extreme surface-based buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear farther east into the Upper Midwest will pose a conditional severe risk, substantial inhibition at the base of an EML casts too much uncertainty to add severe probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday through Saturday night, across parts of the Midwest into southern Great Lakes region and across parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. ...Midwest into southern Great Lakes region... Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered on the Southeast, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse will advance eastward from the Lower Missouri Valley into the southern Great Lakes region. A related cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, which should generally track eastward along a weak warm frontal zone extending from the Midwest through southern Great Lakes region. Diurnal heating/destabilization along the southern fringes of this activity may support an uptick in convective intensity through the afternoon -- given the development of moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy and around 30 kt of deep-layer shear. While the overall details remain unclear, damaging winds will be possible with any stronger storms that evolve. ...Northern Rockies into the Dakotas... Downstream of a broad large-scale trough over the West, guidance indicates one or more embedded midlevel perturbations advancing northeastward across the northern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains during the day. This should aid in the development of widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the region from the afternoon into the evening/overnight hours. Steep deep-layer lapse rates and modestly enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow should support some convective organization into clusters -- with a risk of strong to severe wind gusts. While strong-extreme surface-based buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear farther east into the Upper Midwest will pose a conditional severe risk, substantial inhibition at the base of an EML casts too much uncertainty to add severe probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/24/2025 Read more