Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will continue inland on D2/Friday, with more widely scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will remain possible on the periphery of the deeper moisture. As such, an area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm potential was maintained across the portions of the Sierras in northern California into eastern Oregon, northern Nevada, and central Idaho. Here, lower QPF amounts are forecast and fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ..Thornton.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will continue inland on D2/Friday, with more widely scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will remain possible on the periphery of the deeper moisture. As such, an area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm potential was maintained across the portions of the Sierras in northern California into eastern Oregon, northern Nevada, and central Idaho. Here, lower QPF amounts are forecast and fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ..Thornton.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A closed mid-level low will bring moisture in across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest. A trough is expected to dig into the Pacific Northwest, with increasing westerly flow overspreading the Cascades. Some locally Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across the Cascade Gaps. ...Dry Thunderstorms... An increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is expected across portions of northern California and southern Oregon with the increase in moisture and inland progression of the upper low. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected a moisture increases through the afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate the boundary layer conditions will be initially very dry, though training storms will likely lead to moistening through time. It is likely that localized areas of wetting rainfall will occur, but productive lighting activity will likely lead to strikes outside of the heavier cores. An area of Scattered Dry Thunderstorms was maintained with this outlook, as overall broad QPF amounts appear light and fuels remain critically dry. A broader area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk was reduced across north-central California where PWs will be around 1.00". The broader area extending into southern Oregon, Idaho and northern Nevada was maintained. ..Thornton.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A closed mid-level low will bring moisture in across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest. A trough is expected to dig into the Pacific Northwest, with increasing westerly flow overspreading the Cascades. Some locally Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across the Cascade Gaps. ...Dry Thunderstorms... An increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is expected across portions of northern California and southern Oregon with the increase in moisture and inland progression of the upper low. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected a moisture increases through the afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate the boundary layer conditions will be initially very dry, though training storms will likely lead to moistening through time. It is likely that localized areas of wetting rainfall will occur, but productive lighting activity will likely lead to strikes outside of the heavier cores. An area of Scattered Dry Thunderstorms was maintained with this outlook, as overall broad QPF amounts appear light and fuels remain critically dry. A broader area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk was reduced across north-central California where PWs will be around 1.00". The broader area extending into southern Oregon, Idaho and northern Nevada was maintained. ..Thornton.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A closed mid-level low will bring moisture in across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest. A trough is expected to dig into the Pacific Northwest, with increasing westerly flow overspreading the Cascades. Some locally Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across the Cascade Gaps. ...Dry Thunderstorms... An increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is expected across portions of northern California and southern Oregon with the increase in moisture and inland progression of the upper low. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected a moisture increases through the afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate the boundary layer conditions will be initially very dry, though training storms will likely lead to moistening through time. It is likely that localized areas of wetting rainfall will occur, but productive lighting activity will likely lead to strikes outside of the heavier cores. An area of Scattered Dry Thunderstorms was maintained with this outlook, as overall broad QPF amounts appear light and fuels remain critically dry. A broader area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk was reduced across north-central California where PWs will be around 1.00". The broader area extending into southern Oregon, Idaho and northern Nevada was maintained. ..Thornton.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A closed mid-level low will bring moisture in across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest. A trough is expected to dig into the Pacific Northwest, with increasing westerly flow overspreading the Cascades. Some locally Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across the Cascade Gaps. ...Dry Thunderstorms... An increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is expected across portions of northern California and southern Oregon with the increase in moisture and inland progression of the upper low. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected a moisture increases through the afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate the boundary layer conditions will be initially very dry, though training storms will likely lead to moistening through time. It is likely that localized areas of wetting rainfall will occur, but productive lighting activity will likely lead to strikes outside of the heavier cores. An area of Scattered Dry Thunderstorms was maintained with this outlook, as overall broad QPF amounts appear light and fuels remain critically dry. A broader area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk was reduced across north-central California where PWs will be around 1.00". The broader area extending into southern Oregon, Idaho and northern Nevada was maintained. ..Thornton.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A closed mid-level low will bring moisture in across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest. A trough is expected to dig into the Pacific Northwest, with increasing westerly flow overspreading the Cascades. Some locally Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across the Cascade Gaps. ...Dry Thunderstorms... An increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is expected across portions of northern California and southern Oregon with the increase in moisture and inland progression of the upper low. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected a moisture increases through the afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate the boundary layer conditions will be initially very dry, though training storms will likely lead to moistening through time. It is likely that localized areas of wetting rainfall will occur, but productive lighting activity will likely lead to strikes outside of the heavier cores. An area of Scattered Dry Thunderstorms was maintained with this outlook, as overall broad QPF amounts appear light and fuels remain critically dry. A broader area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk was reduced across north-central California where PWs will be around 1.00". The broader area extending into southern Oregon, Idaho and northern Nevada was maintained. ..Thornton.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A closed mid-level low will bring moisture in across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest. A trough is expected to dig into the Pacific Northwest, with increasing westerly flow overspreading the Cascades. Some locally Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across the Cascade Gaps. ...Dry Thunderstorms... An increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is expected across portions of northern California and southern Oregon with the increase in moisture and inland progression of the upper low. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected a moisture increases through the afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate the boundary layer conditions will be initially very dry, though training storms will likely lead to moistening through time. It is likely that localized areas of wetting rainfall will occur, but productive lighting activity will likely lead to strikes outside of the heavier cores. An area of Scattered Dry Thunderstorms was maintained with this outlook, as overall broad QPF amounts appear light and fuels remain critically dry. A broader area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk was reduced across north-central California where PWs will be around 1.00". The broader area extending into southern Oregon, Idaho and northern Nevada was maintained. ..Thornton.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A closed mid-level low will bring moisture in across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest. A trough is expected to dig into the Pacific Northwest, with increasing westerly flow overspreading the Cascades. Some locally Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across the Cascade Gaps. ...Dry Thunderstorms... An increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is expected across portions of northern California and southern Oregon with the increase in moisture and inland progression of the upper low. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected a moisture increases through the afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate the boundary layer conditions will be initially very dry, though training storms will likely lead to moistening through time. It is likely that localized areas of wetting rainfall will occur, but productive lighting activity will likely lead to strikes outside of the heavier cores. An area of Scattered Dry Thunderstorms was maintained with this outlook, as overall broad QPF amounts appear light and fuels remain critically dry. A broader area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk was reduced across north-central California where PWs will be around 1.00". The broader area extending into southern Oregon, Idaho and northern Nevada was maintained. ..Thornton.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1768 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 539... FOR LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 1768 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0928 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Areas affected...Lower Missouri Valley Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 539... Valid 240228Z - 240430Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 539 continues. SUMMARY...Gusty winds may accompany storms across eastern Nebraska into extreme western Iowa. New severe thunderstorm watch is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Frontal convection has grown upscale and matured into an MCS over eastern NE early this evening. Leading edge of this complex is likely producing gusty winds as it propagates slowly across eastern portions of ww539. 00z sounding from OAX exhibits substantial PW (~2 inches), strong buoyancy, but weak deep-layer shear. With an expanding precip shield it appears this activity will easily propagate across the MO River, potentially spreading downstream along the frontal zone as it sags south across IA. While substantial instability resides across this region, greatest severe risk should be gusty winds, and mostly sub-severe, and a new ww is not currently planned. ..Darrow.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID... LAT...LON 42069790 42489556 41289519 40839764 42069790 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0539 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 539 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE OFK TO 25 SSW YKN. ..SPC..07/24/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...OAX...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 539 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC023-027-037-039-053-109-141-143-155-159-167-179-185-240340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CEDAR COLFAX CUMING DODGE LANCASTER PLATTE POLK SAUNDERS SEWARD STANTON WAYNE YORK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0539 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 539 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE OFK TO 25 SSW YKN. ..SPC..07/24/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...OAX...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 539 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC023-027-037-039-053-109-141-143-155-159-167-179-185-240340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CEDAR COLFAX CUMING DODGE LANCASTER PLATTE POLK SAUNDERS SEWARD STANTON WAYNE YORK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 539 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 232140Z - 240500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 539 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North-Central Kansas Central and Eastern Nebraska * Effective this Wednesday afternoon from 440 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage has gradually increased this afternoon across northeast/north-central KS into central NE. A strongly unstable airmass is in place across the region, supporting the potential for robust updrafts capable of large hail. Strong downdrafts could also contribute to damaging gusts as storms collapse. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles northwest of Norfolk NE to 50 miles south of Mccook NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 538... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24020. ...Mosier Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0807 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ALSO FOR NORTHWEST LOWER MI... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms remain possible this evening from parts of Nebraska into the upper Midwest and northern Lower Michigan, and also across the northern High Plains. ...NE into the Upper Midwest and northern Lower MI... Strong to severe storms are ongoing this evening from central NE into southern MN/northern IA. Very rich low-level moisture and strong buoyancy remain in place along/south of a composite front/outflow, though deep-layer flow/shear is relatively modest along/south of the boundary. Considering the favorable buoyancy, some threat for damaging gusts will persist through the evening, especially if any stronger clusters or bowing segments (like the one currently in central NE) become established within the larger region of ongoing convection. Isolated hail will also be possible with the strongest updrafts. Farther east, a well-defined bowing storm cluster is moving across Lake Michigan toward northern Lower Michigan. Decreasing buoyancy and increasing CINH with eastward extent should eventually result in a weakening trend with this system, but some threat for at least localized wind damage may continue into parts of northwest and possibly north-central lower MI this evening. ...Northern High Plains... Ongoing storms approaching the NE Panhandle should generally weaken with time as they encounter decreasing instability, though localized hail and severe gusts cannot be ruled out this evening. Farther west, isolated strong to severe storms remain possible across northeast WY and vicinity this evening, within a modestly unstable but favorably sheared environment. ..Dean.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0807 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ALSO FOR NORTHWEST LOWER MI... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms remain possible this evening from parts of Nebraska into the upper Midwest and northern Lower Michigan, and also across the northern High Plains. ...NE into the Upper Midwest and northern Lower MI... Strong to severe storms are ongoing this evening from central NE into southern MN/northern IA. Very rich low-level moisture and strong buoyancy remain in place along/south of a composite front/outflow, though deep-layer flow/shear is relatively modest along/south of the boundary. Considering the favorable buoyancy, some threat for damaging gusts will persist through the evening, especially if any stronger clusters or bowing segments (like the one currently in central NE) become established within the larger region of ongoing convection. Isolated hail will also be possible with the strongest updrafts. Farther east, a well-defined bowing storm cluster is moving across Lake Michigan toward northern Lower Michigan. Decreasing buoyancy and increasing CINH with eastward extent should eventually result in a weakening trend with this system, but some threat for at least localized wind damage may continue into parts of northwest and possibly north-central lower MI this evening. ...Northern High Plains... Ongoing storms approaching the NE Panhandle should generally weaken with time as they encounter decreasing instability, though localized hail and severe gusts cannot be ruled out this evening. Farther west, isolated strong to severe storms remain possible across northeast WY and vicinity this evening, within a modestly unstable but favorably sheared environment. ..Dean.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0807 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ALSO FOR NORTHWEST LOWER MI... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms remain possible this evening from parts of Nebraska into the upper Midwest and northern Lower Michigan, and also across the northern High Plains. ...NE into the Upper Midwest and northern Lower MI... Strong to severe storms are ongoing this evening from central NE into southern MN/northern IA. Very rich low-level moisture and strong buoyancy remain in place along/south of a composite front/outflow, though deep-layer flow/shear is relatively modest along/south of the boundary. Considering the favorable buoyancy, some threat for damaging gusts will persist through the evening, especially if any stronger clusters or bowing segments (like the one currently in central NE) become established within the larger region of ongoing convection. Isolated hail will also be possible with the strongest updrafts. Farther east, a well-defined bowing storm cluster is moving across Lake Michigan toward northern Lower Michigan. Decreasing buoyancy and increasing CINH with eastward extent should eventually result in a weakening trend with this system, but some threat for at least localized wind damage may continue into parts of northwest and possibly north-central lower MI this evening. ...Northern High Plains... Ongoing storms approaching the NE Panhandle should generally weaken with time as they encounter decreasing instability, though localized hail and severe gusts cannot be ruled out this evening. Farther west, isolated strong to severe storms remain possible across northeast WY and vicinity this evening, within a modestly unstable but favorably sheared environment. ..Dean.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0807 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ALSO FOR NORTHWEST LOWER MI... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms remain possible this evening from parts of Nebraska into the upper Midwest and northern Lower Michigan, and also across the northern High Plains. ...NE into the Upper Midwest and northern Lower MI... Strong to severe storms are ongoing this evening from central NE into southern MN/northern IA. Very rich low-level moisture and strong buoyancy remain in place along/south of a composite front/outflow, though deep-layer flow/shear is relatively modest along/south of the boundary. Considering the favorable buoyancy, some threat for damaging gusts will persist through the evening, especially if any stronger clusters or bowing segments (like the one currently in central NE) become established within the larger region of ongoing convection. Isolated hail will also be possible with the strongest updrafts. Farther east, a well-defined bowing storm cluster is moving across Lake Michigan toward northern Lower Michigan. Decreasing buoyancy and increasing CINH with eastward extent should eventually result in a weakening trend with this system, but some threat for at least localized wind damage may continue into parts of northwest and possibly north-central lower MI this evening. ...Northern High Plains... Ongoing storms approaching the NE Panhandle should generally weaken with time as they encounter decreasing instability, though localized hail and severe gusts cannot be ruled out this evening. Farther west, isolated strong to severe storms remain possible across northeast WY and vicinity this evening, within a modestly unstable but favorably sheared environment. ..Dean.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0807 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ALSO FOR NORTHWEST LOWER MI... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms remain possible this evening from parts of Nebraska into the upper Midwest and northern Lower Michigan, and also across the northern High Plains. ...NE into the Upper Midwest and northern Lower MI... Strong to severe storms are ongoing this evening from central NE into southern MN/northern IA. Very rich low-level moisture and strong buoyancy remain in place along/south of a composite front/outflow, though deep-layer flow/shear is relatively modest along/south of the boundary. Considering the favorable buoyancy, some threat for damaging gusts will persist through the evening, especially if any stronger clusters or bowing segments (like the one currently in central NE) become established within the larger region of ongoing convection. Isolated hail will also be possible with the strongest updrafts. Farther east, a well-defined bowing storm cluster is moving across Lake Michigan toward northern Lower Michigan. Decreasing buoyancy and increasing CINH with eastward extent should eventually result in a weakening trend with this system, but some threat for at least localized wind damage may continue into parts of northwest and possibly north-central lower MI this evening. ...Northern High Plains... Ongoing storms approaching the NE Panhandle should generally weaken with time as they encounter decreasing instability, though localized hail and severe gusts cannot be ruled out this evening. Farther west, isolated strong to severe storms remain possible across northeast WY and vicinity this evening, within a modestly unstable but favorably sheared environment. ..Dean.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0807 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ALSO FOR NORTHWEST LOWER MI... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms remain possible this evening from parts of Nebraska into the upper Midwest and northern Lower Michigan, and also across the northern High Plains. ...NE into the Upper Midwest and northern Lower MI... Strong to severe storms are ongoing this evening from central NE into southern MN/northern IA. Very rich low-level moisture and strong buoyancy remain in place along/south of a composite front/outflow, though deep-layer flow/shear is relatively modest along/south of the boundary. Considering the favorable buoyancy, some threat for damaging gusts will persist through the evening, especially if any stronger clusters or bowing segments (like the one currently in central NE) become established within the larger region of ongoing convection. Isolated hail will also be possible with the strongest updrafts. Farther east, a well-defined bowing storm cluster is moving across Lake Michigan toward northern Lower Michigan. Decreasing buoyancy and increasing CINH with eastward extent should eventually result in a weakening trend with this system, but some threat for at least localized wind damage may continue into parts of northwest and possibly north-central lower MI this evening. ...Northern High Plains... Ongoing storms approaching the NE Panhandle should generally weaken with time as they encounter decreasing instability, though localized hail and severe gusts cannot be ruled out this evening. Farther west, isolated strong to severe storms remain possible across northeast WY and vicinity this evening, within a modestly unstable but favorably sheared environment. ..Dean.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0807 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ALSO FOR NORTHWEST LOWER MI... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms remain possible this evening from parts of Nebraska into the upper Midwest and northern Lower Michigan, and also across the northern High Plains. ...NE into the Upper Midwest and northern Lower MI... Strong to severe storms are ongoing this evening from central NE into southern MN/northern IA. Very rich low-level moisture and strong buoyancy remain in place along/south of a composite front/outflow, though deep-layer flow/shear is relatively modest along/south of the boundary. Considering the favorable buoyancy, some threat for damaging gusts will persist through the evening, especially if any stronger clusters or bowing segments (like the one currently in central NE) become established within the larger region of ongoing convection. Isolated hail will also be possible with the strongest updrafts. Farther east, a well-defined bowing storm cluster is moving across Lake Michigan toward northern Lower Michigan. Decreasing buoyancy and increasing CINH with eastward extent should eventually result in a weakening trend with this system, but some threat for at least localized wind damage may continue into parts of northwest and possibly north-central lower MI this evening. ...Northern High Plains... Ongoing storms approaching the NE Panhandle should generally weaken with time as they encounter decreasing instability, though localized hail and severe gusts cannot be ruled out this evening. Farther west, isolated strong to severe storms remain possible across northeast WY and vicinity this evening, within a modestly unstable but favorably sheared environment. ..Dean.. 07/24/2025 Read more