Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley this afternoon into tonight. ...20z Update... Minor updates were made to the D1 Convective Outlook to reduce the Marginal Risk area across North Dakota into northern Minnesota where the front has shifted southward with influence from morning convection. Otherwise, the Slight Risk across the northern Plains into the upper Midwest remains on track. There continues to remain some uncertainty on what the corridor for greater wind risk will be this evening. Cloud cover remains across much of the Slight Risk area. It is mostly clear across southern South Dakota into Wyoming, where temperatures are warming. Thunderstorm activity has begun across the high terrain in Montana and Wyoming. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025/ ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows extensive cloud debris and convective outflow from ongoing and early morning shower/thunderstorm activity. A composite outflow/front is draped from the ND/MN Red River Valley west-southwestward into northwest SD, with another frontal segment extending into northern WY. Weak to neutral height rises across the northern Plains this afternoon will likely not support a northward oscillation of the boundary into southwest ND. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow overhead the north-central Rockies and adjacent plains will be downstream of a larger-scale trough pivoting east across the northern Rockies through tonight. In agreement with earlier forecast thinking, it appears probable that diurnal storms will favor the general area of northern WY/southern MT. This region will generally be post-frontal, but steep mid-level lapse rates and a modestly moist low-level airmass should still aid in the development of at least weak instability. Strong deep-layer shear should support supercells initially, with associated threat for large to perhaps isolated very large hail. Some potential should exist for this convection to grow upscale this evening across parts of the Dakotas and pose a greater threat for severe/damaging winds overnight. But, uncertainty remains high regarding the placement of this possible cluster, and whether it will remain surface-based or elevated. Farther east into the upper MS Valley, it appears less likely that robust convection will develop before this evening due to the stabilizing influence of the ongoing morning activity. If thunderstorms can develop later, most short-term guidance continues to suggest that sufficient airmass recovery will occur to support severe convection with mainly a hail/wind threat. Some diurnal hail/wind threat may develop across IA in association with the lower MO Valley MCV. Uncertainty remains high regarding this scenario. ...Central High Plains... Scattered to numerous high-based thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/near the surface lee trough extending southward across the central High Plains. While low/mid-level flow and deep-layer shear are all expected to remain weak today across this region due to closer proximity to the upper ridge, heating will contribute to the development of steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. ...Southeast... A weak cold front will shift southward today across parts of GA/SC. A rather moist low-level airmass will be in place ahead of the front, with daytime heating encouraging the development of moderate to locally strong instability through the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms that develop along/ahead of the front, and along various sea breeze circulations, may be capable of producing occasional damaging winds, even though shear will remain weak. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...AND CENTERED ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with damaging wind gust potential. Areas of strong to damaging gusts may also occur from southeast Wyoming across the Front Range and into northeast New Mexico. ...From IA/WI to Lower MI/Lower Great Lakes... A weak shortwave trough will move across the area, with midlevel winds to around 30 kt as far south as northern IL/IN. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front, with storms developing from eastern IA into northern Lower MI between 18-21Z. Deep-layer means winds of 25-35 kt along with heating of the moist air mass should result in scattered strong to damaging gusts during the afternoon. A few strong storms could persist from the Mid MS Valley toward western PA overnight as westerly 850 mb winds persist within the deeper theta-e plume, though likely not severe. ...Eastern WY, CO, and northeast NM... Beneath weak westerlies aloft, low-level moisture will gradually spread westward across the High Plains as surface winds veer to east/southeast during the afternoon. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool, resulting in steep lapse rates overall. Models indicate rather significant overall storm coverage from afternoon through evening, developing over the high terrain and spreading into the Plains. Given MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, strong gusts will be possible, in addition to marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...AND CENTERED ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with damaging wind gust potential. Areas of strong to damaging gusts may also occur from southeast Wyoming across the Front Range and into northeast New Mexico. ...From IA/WI to Lower MI/Lower Great Lakes... A weak shortwave trough will move across the area, with midlevel winds to around 30 kt as far south as northern IL/IN. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front, with storms developing from eastern IA into northern Lower MI between 18-21Z. Deep-layer means winds of 25-35 kt along with heating of the moist air mass should result in scattered strong to damaging gusts during the afternoon. A few strong storms could persist from the Mid MS Valley toward western PA overnight as westerly 850 mb winds persist within the deeper theta-e plume, though likely not severe. ...Eastern WY, CO, and northeast NM... Beneath weak westerlies aloft, low-level moisture will gradually spread westward across the High Plains as surface winds veer to east/southeast during the afternoon. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool, resulting in steep lapse rates overall. Models indicate rather significant overall storm coverage from afternoon through evening, developing over the high terrain and spreading into the Plains. Given MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, strong gusts will be possible, in addition to marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...AND CENTERED ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with damaging wind gust potential. Areas of strong to damaging gusts may also occur from southeast Wyoming across the Front Range and into northeast New Mexico. ...From IA/WI to Lower MI/Lower Great Lakes... A weak shortwave trough will move across the area, with midlevel winds to around 30 kt as far south as northern IL/IN. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front, with storms developing from eastern IA into northern Lower MI between 18-21Z. Deep-layer means winds of 25-35 kt along with heating of the moist air mass should result in scattered strong to damaging gusts during the afternoon. A few strong storms could persist from the Mid MS Valley toward western PA overnight as westerly 850 mb winds persist within the deeper theta-e plume, though likely not severe. ...Eastern WY, CO, and northeast NM... Beneath weak westerlies aloft, low-level moisture will gradually spread westward across the High Plains as surface winds veer to east/southeast during the afternoon. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool, resulting in steep lapse rates overall. Models indicate rather significant overall storm coverage from afternoon through evening, developing over the high terrain and spreading into the Plains. Given MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, strong gusts will be possible, in addition to marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...AND CENTERED ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with damaging wind gust potential. Areas of strong to damaging gusts may also occur from southeast Wyoming across the Front Range and into northeast New Mexico. ...From IA/WI to Lower MI/Lower Great Lakes... A weak shortwave trough will move across the area, with midlevel winds to around 30 kt as far south as northern IL/IN. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front, with storms developing from eastern IA into northern Lower MI between 18-21Z. Deep-layer means winds of 25-35 kt along with heating of the moist air mass should result in scattered strong to damaging gusts during the afternoon. A few strong storms could persist from the Mid MS Valley toward western PA overnight as westerly 850 mb winds persist within the deeper theta-e plume, though likely not severe. ...Eastern WY, CO, and northeast NM... Beneath weak westerlies aloft, low-level moisture will gradually spread westward across the High Plains as surface winds veer to east/southeast during the afternoon. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool, resulting in steep lapse rates overall. Models indicate rather significant overall storm coverage from afternoon through evening, developing over the high terrain and spreading into the Plains. Given MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, strong gusts will be possible, in addition to marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...AND CENTERED ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with damaging wind gust potential. Areas of strong to damaging gusts may also occur from southeast Wyoming across the Front Range and into northeast New Mexico. ...From IA/WI to Lower MI/Lower Great Lakes... A weak shortwave trough will move across the area, with midlevel winds to around 30 kt as far south as northern IL/IN. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front, with storms developing from eastern IA into northern Lower MI between 18-21Z. Deep-layer means winds of 25-35 kt along with heating of the moist air mass should result in scattered strong to damaging gusts during the afternoon. A few strong storms could persist from the Mid MS Valley toward western PA overnight as westerly 850 mb winds persist within the deeper theta-e plume, though likely not severe. ...Eastern WY, CO, and northeast NM... Beneath weak westerlies aloft, low-level moisture will gradually spread westward across the High Plains as surface winds veer to east/southeast during the afternoon. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool, resulting in steep lapse rates overall. Models indicate rather significant overall storm coverage from afternoon through evening, developing over the high terrain and spreading into the Plains. Given MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, strong gusts will be possible, in addition to marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...AND CENTERED ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with damaging wind gust potential. Areas of strong to damaging gusts may also occur from southeast Wyoming across the Front Range and into northeast New Mexico. ...From IA/WI to Lower MI/Lower Great Lakes... A weak shortwave trough will move across the area, with midlevel winds to around 30 kt as far south as northern IL/IN. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front, with storms developing from eastern IA into northern Lower MI between 18-21Z. Deep-layer means winds of 25-35 kt along with heating of the moist air mass should result in scattered strong to damaging gusts during the afternoon. A few strong storms could persist from the Mid MS Valley toward western PA overnight as westerly 850 mb winds persist within the deeper theta-e plume, though likely not severe. ...Eastern WY, CO, and northeast NM... Beneath weak westerlies aloft, low-level moisture will gradually spread westward across the High Plains as surface winds veer to east/southeast during the afternoon. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool, resulting in steep lapse rates overall. Models indicate rather significant overall storm coverage from afternoon through evening, developing over the high terrain and spreading into the Plains. Given MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, strong gusts will be possible, in addition to marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...AND CENTERED ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with damaging wind gust potential. Areas of strong to damaging gusts may also occur from southeast Wyoming across the Front Range and into northeast New Mexico. ...From IA/WI to Lower MI/Lower Great Lakes... A weak shortwave trough will move across the area, with midlevel winds to around 30 kt as far south as northern IL/IN. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front, with storms developing from eastern IA into northern Lower MI between 18-21Z. Deep-layer means winds of 25-35 kt along with heating of the moist air mass should result in scattered strong to damaging gusts during the afternoon. A few strong storms could persist from the Mid MS Valley toward western PA overnight as westerly 850 mb winds persist within the deeper theta-e plume, though likely not severe. ...Eastern WY, CO, and northeast NM... Beneath weak westerlies aloft, low-level moisture will gradually spread westward across the High Plains as surface winds veer to east/southeast during the afternoon. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool, resulting in steep lapse rates overall. Models indicate rather significant overall storm coverage from afternoon through evening, developing over the high terrain and spreading into the Plains. Given MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, strong gusts will be possible, in addition to marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...AND CENTERED ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with damaging wind gust potential. Areas of strong to damaging gusts may also occur from southeast Wyoming across the Front Range and into northeast New Mexico. ...From IA/WI to Lower MI/Lower Great Lakes... A weak shortwave trough will move across the area, with midlevel winds to around 30 kt as far south as northern IL/IN. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front, with storms developing from eastern IA into northern Lower MI between 18-21Z. Deep-layer means winds of 25-35 kt along with heating of the moist air mass should result in scattered strong to damaging gusts during the afternoon. A few strong storms could persist from the Mid MS Valley toward western PA overnight as westerly 850 mb winds persist within the deeper theta-e plume, though likely not severe. ...Eastern WY, CO, and northeast NM... Beneath weak westerlies aloft, low-level moisture will gradually spread westward across the High Plains as surface winds veer to east/southeast during the afternoon. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool, resulting in steep lapse rates overall. Models indicate rather significant overall storm coverage from afternoon through evening, developing over the high terrain and spreading into the Plains. Given MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, strong gusts will be possible, in addition to marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...AND CENTERED ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with damaging wind gust potential. Areas of strong to damaging gusts may also occur from southeast Wyoming across the Front Range and into northeast New Mexico. ...From IA/WI to Lower MI/Lower Great Lakes... A weak shortwave trough will move across the area, with midlevel winds to around 30 kt as far south as northern IL/IN. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front, with storms developing from eastern IA into northern Lower MI between 18-21Z. Deep-layer means winds of 25-35 kt along with heating of the moist air mass should result in scattered strong to damaging gusts during the afternoon. A few strong storms could persist from the Mid MS Valley toward western PA overnight as westerly 850 mb winds persist within the deeper theta-e plume, though likely not severe. ...Eastern WY, CO, and northeast NM... Beneath weak westerlies aloft, low-level moisture will gradually spread westward across the High Plains as surface winds veer to east/southeast during the afternoon. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool, resulting in steep lapse rates overall. Models indicate rather significant overall storm coverage from afternoon through evening, developing over the high terrain and spreading into the Plains. Given MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, strong gusts will be possible, in addition to marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...AND CENTERED ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with damaging wind gust potential. Areas of strong to damaging gusts may also occur from southeast Wyoming across the Front Range and into northeast New Mexico. ...From IA/WI to Lower MI/Lower Great Lakes... A weak shortwave trough will move across the area, with midlevel winds to around 30 kt as far south as northern IL/IN. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front, with storms developing from eastern IA into northern Lower MI between 18-21Z. Deep-layer means winds of 25-35 kt along with heating of the moist air mass should result in scattered strong to damaging gusts during the afternoon. A few strong storms could persist from the Mid MS Valley toward western PA overnight as westerly 850 mb winds persist within the deeper theta-e plume, though likely not severe. ...Eastern WY, CO, and northeast NM... Beneath weak westerlies aloft, low-level moisture will gradually spread westward across the High Plains as surface winds veer to east/southeast during the afternoon. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool, resulting in steep lapse rates overall. Models indicate rather significant overall storm coverage from afternoon through evening, developing over the high terrain and spreading into the Plains. Given MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, strong gusts will be possible, in addition to marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 07/22/2025 Read more

MD 1753 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL MN INTO FAR NORTHWEST WI
Mesoscale Discussion 1753 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Areas affected...north-central MN into far northwest WI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 221851Z - 221945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms may develop this afternoon, although this potential is uncertain. Marginally severe hail and wind could be possible if stronger storms can emerge. DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm over central MN has shown some propensity for intensification over the past 30 minutes. This activity is moving into a downstream airmass that has heated into the upper 70s to low 80s with weakening inhibition. Modified 17z RAP forecast soundings suggest that if further intensification occurs, favorable deep shear and increasing instability could support a severe storm capable of producing large hail and strong/severe gusts. Given early day convection and lingering downstream cloud cover, it is unclear how this activity may evolve over the next couple of hours, or if additional storms will develop. Visible satellite imagery does show some deepening cumulus beneath the mid/high level clouds across northeast MN into far northwest WI, and trends will continued to be monitored for further storm development. Given uncertainty and impacts from early-day convection, a watch is not currently expected. ..Leitman/Smith.. 07/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... LAT...LON 45659435 45919482 46149490 46449489 46679459 46769399 46709231 46549173 46229173 46049190 45839242 45659344 45659435 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1752 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN ALABAMA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1752 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Alabama into southwest Georgia and parts of the Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 221745Z - 221945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Damaging downburst winds will be possible across parts of eastern Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle through late afternoon as thunderstorms increase in coverage and intensity. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms developing within a corridor of higher low-level theta-e across eastern AL into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle have shown signs of gradual intensification over the past 30 minutes with echo tops beginning to exceed 40 kft in a few deeper convective cores. Despite the very moist/buoyant environment (MLCAPE between 2000-3000 J/kg), regional VWPs continue to sample very poor deep-layer wind shear, suggesting that convective mode will largely remain a collection of short-lived single-cell storms and cold-pool driven convective clusters (evidence of which is already noted across southwest GA where cold pool consolidation is beginning to take place). As such, the overall severe threat will remain very limited. However, a few damaging downbursts appear probable given very deep buoyancy profiles, PWAT values exceeding 2 inches, and steepening lapse rates within the lowest 2 km - all of which are favorable for accelerating water-loaded downdrafts. Downburst winds between 40-55 mph will be most common, but a few isolated gusts approaching 60 are possible. This potential should be maximized through peak heating when buoyancy and low-level lapse rates will both be maximized. ..Moore/Smith.. 07/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 33498588 33698578 33858559 33858537 33648514 33418504 32888493 32158454 31728418 31438380 31158334 30668301 30388311 30108352 30008403 29938446 29918492 30018547 30308590 30638610 31108621 31638618 33498588 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Update... A very subtle adjustment was made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Wednesday (extended slightly southward to include more of the Sierra Crest). The previous discussion remains valid. Please see below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Winds across the Great Basin will continue to weaken on Wednesday as the stronger upper-level winds depart into the northern Rockies and a weak cutoff low sits off the central California coast. This upper low will draw marginally greater mid-level moisture northward and provide weak lift. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from parts of northern California into far northwest/north-central Nevada near the Sierra Crest. A few storms may remain dry, though slow storm motions could allow some wetting rainfall locally. Given the state of fuels in these areas, some potential for new ignitions exists. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Update... A very subtle adjustment was made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Wednesday (extended slightly southward to include more of the Sierra Crest). The previous discussion remains valid. Please see below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Winds across the Great Basin will continue to weaken on Wednesday as the stronger upper-level winds depart into the northern Rockies and a weak cutoff low sits off the central California coast. This upper low will draw marginally greater mid-level moisture northward and provide weak lift. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from parts of northern California into far northwest/north-central Nevada near the Sierra Crest. A few storms may remain dry, though slow storm motions could allow some wetting rainfall locally. Given the state of fuels in these areas, some potential for new ignitions exists. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Update... A very subtle adjustment was made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Wednesday (extended slightly southward to include more of the Sierra Crest). The previous discussion remains valid. Please see below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Winds across the Great Basin will continue to weaken on Wednesday as the stronger upper-level winds depart into the northern Rockies and a weak cutoff low sits off the central California coast. This upper low will draw marginally greater mid-level moisture northward and provide weak lift. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from parts of northern California into far northwest/north-central Nevada near the Sierra Crest. A few storms may remain dry, though slow storm motions could allow some wetting rainfall locally. Given the state of fuels in these areas, some potential for new ignitions exists. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Update... A very subtle adjustment was made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Wednesday (extended slightly southward to include more of the Sierra Crest). The previous discussion remains valid. Please see below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Winds across the Great Basin will continue to weaken on Wednesday as the stronger upper-level winds depart into the northern Rockies and a weak cutoff low sits off the central California coast. This upper low will draw marginally greater mid-level moisture northward and provide weak lift. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from parts of northern California into far northwest/north-central Nevada near the Sierra Crest. A few storms may remain dry, though slow storm motions could allow some wetting rainfall locally. Given the state of fuels in these areas, some potential for new ignitions exists. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Update... A very subtle adjustment was made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Wednesday (extended slightly southward to include more of the Sierra Crest). The previous discussion remains valid. Please see below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Winds across the Great Basin will continue to weaken on Wednesday as the stronger upper-level winds depart into the northern Rockies and a weak cutoff low sits off the central California coast. This upper low will draw marginally greater mid-level moisture northward and provide weak lift. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from parts of northern California into far northwest/north-central Nevada near the Sierra Crest. A few storms may remain dry, though slow storm motions could allow some wetting rainfall locally. Given the state of fuels in these areas, some potential for new ignitions exists. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Update... A very subtle adjustment was made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Wednesday (extended slightly southward to include more of the Sierra Crest). The previous discussion remains valid. Please see below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Winds across the Great Basin will continue to weaken on Wednesday as the stronger upper-level winds depart into the northern Rockies and a weak cutoff low sits off the central California coast. This upper low will draw marginally greater mid-level moisture northward and provide weak lift. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from parts of northern California into far northwest/north-central Nevada near the Sierra Crest. A few storms may remain dry, though slow storm motions could allow some wetting rainfall locally. Given the state of fuels in these areas, some potential for new ignitions exists. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Update... A very subtle adjustment was made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Wednesday (extended slightly southward to include more of the Sierra Crest). The previous discussion remains valid. Please see below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Winds across the Great Basin will continue to weaken on Wednesday as the stronger upper-level winds depart into the northern Rockies and a weak cutoff low sits off the central California coast. This upper low will draw marginally greater mid-level moisture northward and provide weak lift. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from parts of northern California into far northwest/north-central Nevada near the Sierra Crest. A few storms may remain dry, though slow storm motions could allow some wetting rainfall locally. Given the state of fuels in these areas, some potential for new ignitions exists. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more