Severe Storms

WW 541 SEVERE TSTM MI OH LE 242305Z - 250400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 541 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 705 PM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Lower Michigan Far Northwest Ohio Lake Erie * Effective this Thursday night from 705 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...A line of strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms is moving eastward across central Lower MI, near the MI/IN/IL border intersection. This line is expected to continue eastward into the warm, moist, and strongly unstable airmass downstream across southeast Lower MI and adjacent far northwest OH. Strong to severe gusts will be possible with this line. Additional more cellular development is possible ahead of this line, which could also pose a risk for damaging water-loaded downbursts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles west northwest of Mount Clemens MI to 10 miles south southwest of Toledo OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 540... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0540 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 540 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N FWA TO 20 W JXN TO 10 E LAN. WW 540 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 250200Z. ..SQUITIERI..07/24/25 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...ILX...IWX...GRR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 540 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC059-065-075-250200- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HILLSDALE INGHAM JACKSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0540 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 540 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N FWA TO 20 W JXN TO 10 E LAN. WW 540 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 250200Z. ..SQUITIERI..07/24/25 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...ILX...IWX...GRR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 540 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC059-065-075-250200- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HILLSDALE INGHAM JACKSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 540 SEVERE TSTM IL IN MI LM 241930Z - 250200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 540 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 230 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Illinois Northern Indiana Southern Lower Michigan Lake Michigan * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Clusters of scattered storms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moist and very unstable air mass ahead of a front, with wind damage possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles west southwest of Marseilles IL to 15 miles south southeast of Lansing MI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0541 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0541 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0540 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 540 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N FWA TO 20 W JXN TO 10 E LAN. WW 540 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 250200Z. ..SQUITIERI..07/24/25 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...ILX...IWX...GRR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 540 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC059-065-075-250200- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HILLSDALE INGHAM JACKSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jul 24 23:36:10 UTC 2025.

WW 540 SEVERE TSTM IL IN MI LM 241930Z - 250200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 540 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 230 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Illinois Northern Indiana Southern Lower Michigan Lake Michigan * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Clusters of scattered storms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moist and very unstable air mass ahead of a front, with wind damage possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles west southwest of Marseilles IL to 15 miles south southeast of Lansing MI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1774 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 540... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHERN PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1774 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0439 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Areas affected...portions of northern Illinois...northern Indiana...southern parts of Lower Michigan Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 540... Valid 242139Z - 242315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 540 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms should persist across portions of the OH Valley through the remainder of the evening, with severe gusts the main threat. Convective trends will be monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance in southeast Lower MI. DISCUSSION...Scattered multicells and short bowing segments have been percolating in intensity over northern IL to far southwestern Lower MI over the past few hours. Multiple damaging gusts have been reported, some measured over 50 kts in magnitude. Though vertical wind shear remains modest across the southern Great Lakes (e.g. 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear), over 2500 J/kg MLCAPE exist in some spots, which will encourage additional water-loaded downdrafts given 1.8-2.0 inch PWATs in place. Strong to severe gusts remain a concern through the remainder of the afternoon. It is unclear how far east the severe gust threat will persist. However, convective trends will continue to be monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance should the severe threat persist. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...DVN... LAT...LON 40958974 42358664 42908537 43308366 43478258 43198237 42778249 42478276 42218311 41988342 41858386 41488531 41118643 40778738 40648804 40578921 40958974 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0541 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0541 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 541 SEVERE TSTM MI OH LE 242305Z - 250400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 541 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 705 PM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Lower Michigan Far Northwest Ohio Lake Erie * Effective this Thursday night from 705 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...A line of strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms is moving eastward across central Lower MI, near the MI/IN/IL border intersection. This line is expected to continue eastward into the warm, moist, and strongly unstable airmass downstream across southeast Lower MI and adjacent far northwest OH. Strong to severe gusts will be possible with this line. Additional more cellular development is possible ahead of this line, which could also pose a risk for damaging water-loaded downbursts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles west northwest of Mount Clemens MI to 10 miles south southwest of Toledo OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 540... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0540 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 540 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW PIA TO 35 ENE MMO TO 10 ESE VPZ TO 20 NNE AZO TO 20 NE LAN. ..SQUITIERI..07/24/25 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...ILX...IWX...GRR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 540 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC053-063-075-091-099-105-113-123-155-179-197-203-242340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FORD GRUNDY IROQUOIS KANKAKEE LA SALLE LIVINGSTON MCLEAN MARSHALL PUTNAM TAZEWELL WILL WOODFORD INC007-039-049-073-085-087-089-091-099-111-113-127-131-141-149- 151-242340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON ELKHART FULTON JASPER KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LAKE LA PORTE MARSHALL NEWTON NOBLE PORTER PULASKI ST. JOSEPH STARKE STEUBEN Read more

MD 1773 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KS INTO NORTHWEST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 1773 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern KS into northwest MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 242008Z - 242215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong wind gusts are possible the remainder of the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have gradually increased in intensity this afternoon amid a very moist and moderately unstable airmass. Vertical shear will remain modest, with effective shear magnitude only expected to be around 20 kt. Nevertheless, strong instability and high PW values near 2 inches could support isolated wet microbursts within this weakly sheared environment. North and east extent of strong/severe potential may remain somewhat limited due to early day convection and lingering cloud cover across northern MO. Weak inhibition remains over this area and instability is somewhat less. At this time, the overall threat appears limited/transient and a severe thunderstorm watch is not currently expected. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 39819328 39549312 39049315 38679361 38419419 37949586 37889683 38329754 38889757 39479670 40069522 39999364 39819328 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... By this weekend, a mid to upper-level shortwave trough will traverse central CA and the Great Basin. Increasing southwesterly mid-level flow from the Southwest into the Rockies will accompany this feature, as the height gradient tightens. Farther east, the subtropical ridge will begin to expand westward over the southern and central CONUS into early next week. Pacific mid to upper-level troughing will continue through this time period as well, leading to persistent, deep southerly flow developing on the western fringe of the ridge from CA to the Pacific Northwest. ...D3/Saturday... Continued mid-level ascent associated with the CA trough will aid in elevated moist convection developing again from northern NV, far southeast OR, and southern ID. Projected PWATs D3/Saturday within this region, combined with receptive fuels and relatively low QPF, should provide another environment favorable for isolated dry thunderstorms. Farther south from northwest AZ, into southeast UT, and far western CO, a deeply mixed boundary layer will allow for momentum transfer of the stronger flow aloft. Confidence in these breezy southwest winds developing D3/Saturday has increased enough to introduce a low probability area for the aforementioned region. Low RH and increasingly receptive fuels will also be present there. ..Barnes.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... By this weekend, a mid to upper-level shortwave trough will traverse central CA and the Great Basin. Increasing southwesterly mid-level flow from the Southwest into the Rockies will accompany this feature, as the height gradient tightens. Farther east, the subtropical ridge will begin to expand westward over the southern and central CONUS into early next week. Pacific mid to upper-level troughing will continue through this time period as well, leading to persistent, deep southerly flow developing on the western fringe of the ridge from CA to the Pacific Northwest. ...D3/Saturday... Continued mid-level ascent associated with the CA trough will aid in elevated moist convection developing again from northern NV, far southeast OR, and southern ID. Projected PWATs D3/Saturday within this region, combined with receptive fuels and relatively low QPF, should provide another environment favorable for isolated dry thunderstorms. Farther south from northwest AZ, into southeast UT, and far western CO, a deeply mixed boundary layer will allow for momentum transfer of the stronger flow aloft. Confidence in these breezy southwest winds developing D3/Saturday has increased enough to introduce a low probability area for the aforementioned region. Low RH and increasingly receptive fuels will also be present there. ..Barnes.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... By this weekend, a mid to upper-level shortwave trough will traverse central CA and the Great Basin. Increasing southwesterly mid-level flow from the Southwest into the Rockies will accompany this feature, as the height gradient tightens. Farther east, the subtropical ridge will begin to expand westward over the southern and central CONUS into early next week. Pacific mid to upper-level troughing will continue through this time period as well, leading to persistent, deep southerly flow developing on the western fringe of the ridge from CA to the Pacific Northwest. ...D3/Saturday... Continued mid-level ascent associated with the CA trough will aid in elevated moist convection developing again from northern NV, far southeast OR, and southern ID. Projected PWATs D3/Saturday within this region, combined with receptive fuels and relatively low QPF, should provide another environment favorable for isolated dry thunderstorms. Farther south from northwest AZ, into southeast UT, and far western CO, a deeply mixed boundary layer will allow for momentum transfer of the stronger flow aloft. Confidence in these breezy southwest winds developing D3/Saturday has increased enough to introduce a low probability area for the aforementioned region. Low RH and increasingly receptive fuels will also be present there. ..Barnes.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... By this weekend, a mid to upper-level shortwave trough will traverse central CA and the Great Basin. Increasing southwesterly mid-level flow from the Southwest into the Rockies will accompany this feature, as the height gradient tightens. Farther east, the subtropical ridge will begin to expand westward over the southern and central CONUS into early next week. Pacific mid to upper-level troughing will continue through this time period as well, leading to persistent, deep southerly flow developing on the western fringe of the ridge from CA to the Pacific Northwest. ...D3/Saturday... Continued mid-level ascent associated with the CA trough will aid in elevated moist convection developing again from northern NV, far southeast OR, and southern ID. Projected PWATs D3/Saturday within this region, combined with receptive fuels and relatively low QPF, should provide another environment favorable for isolated dry thunderstorms. Farther south from northwest AZ, into southeast UT, and far western CO, a deeply mixed boundary layer will allow for momentum transfer of the stronger flow aloft. Confidence in these breezy southwest winds developing D3/Saturday has increased enough to introduce a low probability area for the aforementioned region. Low RH and increasingly receptive fuels will also be present there. ..Barnes.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... By this weekend, a mid to upper-level shortwave trough will traverse central CA and the Great Basin. Increasing southwesterly mid-level flow from the Southwest into the Rockies will accompany this feature, as the height gradient tightens. Farther east, the subtropical ridge will begin to expand westward over the southern and central CONUS into early next week. Pacific mid to upper-level troughing will continue through this time period as well, leading to persistent, deep southerly flow developing on the western fringe of the ridge from CA to the Pacific Northwest. ...D3/Saturday... Continued mid-level ascent associated with the CA trough will aid in elevated moist convection developing again from northern NV, far southeast OR, and southern ID. Projected PWATs D3/Saturday within this region, combined with receptive fuels and relatively low QPF, should provide another environment favorable for isolated dry thunderstorms. Farther south from northwest AZ, into southeast UT, and far western CO, a deeply mixed boundary layer will allow for momentum transfer of the stronger flow aloft. Confidence in these breezy southwest winds developing D3/Saturday has increased enough to introduce a low probability area for the aforementioned region. Low RH and increasingly receptive fuels will also be present there. ..Barnes.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... By this weekend, a mid to upper-level shortwave trough will traverse central CA and the Great Basin. Increasing southwesterly mid-level flow from the Southwest into the Rockies will accompany this feature, as the height gradient tightens. Farther east, the subtropical ridge will begin to expand westward over the southern and central CONUS into early next week. Pacific mid to upper-level troughing will continue through this time period as well, leading to persistent, deep southerly flow developing on the western fringe of the ridge from CA to the Pacific Northwest. ...D3/Saturday... Continued mid-level ascent associated with the CA trough will aid in elevated moist convection developing again from northern NV, far southeast OR, and southern ID. Projected PWATs D3/Saturday within this region, combined with receptive fuels and relatively low QPF, should provide another environment favorable for isolated dry thunderstorms. Farther south from northwest AZ, into southeast UT, and far western CO, a deeply mixed boundary layer will allow for momentum transfer of the stronger flow aloft. Confidence in these breezy southwest winds developing D3/Saturday has increased enough to introduce a low probability area for the aforementioned region. Low RH and increasingly receptive fuels will also be present there. ..Barnes.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... By this weekend, a mid to upper-level shortwave trough will traverse central CA and the Great Basin. Increasing southwesterly mid-level flow from the Southwest into the Rockies will accompany this feature, as the height gradient tightens. Farther east, the subtropical ridge will begin to expand westward over the southern and central CONUS into early next week. Pacific mid to upper-level troughing will continue through this time period as well, leading to persistent, deep southerly flow developing on the western fringe of the ridge from CA to the Pacific Northwest. ...D3/Saturday... Continued mid-level ascent associated with the CA trough will aid in elevated moist convection developing again from northern NV, far southeast OR, and southern ID. Projected PWATs D3/Saturday within this region, combined with receptive fuels and relatively low QPF, should provide another environment favorable for isolated dry thunderstorms. Farther south from northwest AZ, into southeast UT, and far western CO, a deeply mixed boundary layer will allow for momentum transfer of the stronger flow aloft. Confidence in these breezy southwest winds developing D3/Saturday has increased enough to introduce a low probability area for the aforementioned region. Low RH and increasingly receptive fuels will also be present there. ..Barnes.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more