Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England region. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge currently over the Southeast will gradually shift west over the next 48-72 hours into the south-central U.S. Strong/severe thunderstorm chances will largely be focused on the north/northeastern periphery of the ridge as shortwave impulses embedded within strong westerly mid-level flow overspread buoyant air masses. ...Eastern Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley... Forecast confidence remains low for Sunday across the eastern Dakotas into portions of the upper MS Valley. A low-amplitude mid-level wave is forecast to round the apex of the mid-level ridge through the afternoon/evening across ND/MN. A residual MCS from overnight Saturday may accompany this wave, though the intensity of this MCS by Sunday morning remains uncertain. However, this will have a direct impact on thunderstorm development/evolution Sunday afternoon. Several deterministic solutions (most notably recent NAM and ECMWF runs) suggest either a re-intensification of the MCS and/or new convective development along an outflow boundary across MN by late afternoon. Given forecast MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg and 30-40 knots of deep-layer wind shear, this activity could strengthen into a well-organized, severe MCS through the late evening hours as it propagates southeastward along a warm frontal zone into parts of IA and/or WI. Other solutions, including the high-res RRFS, depict a weaker early-morning MCS and more limited thunderstorm coverage through late evening. Ensemble guidance shows similarly dichotomous solutions. Severe risk probabilities were maintained as-is given then spread in solutions, but higher risk highlights will likely be needed if guidance begins to coalesce around the NAM/ECMWF solutions. ...Mid-Atlantic into parts of New England... A weak surface trough/cold front is forecast to push eastward across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic region through peak heating. A moist air mass will likely remain in place through the weekend and will promote widespread MLCAPE values of at least 1000 J/kg along with limited capping. West/northwesterly flow aloft coupled with modest low-level winds should support adequate deep-layer wind shear for a few strong/severe thunderstorms as convection develops by mid/late afternoon. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England region. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge currently over the Southeast will gradually shift west over the next 48-72 hours into the south-central U.S. Strong/severe thunderstorm chances will largely be focused on the north/northeastern periphery of the ridge as shortwave impulses embedded within strong westerly mid-level flow overspread buoyant air masses. ...Eastern Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley... Forecast confidence remains low for Sunday across the eastern Dakotas into portions of the upper MS Valley. A low-amplitude mid-level wave is forecast to round the apex of the mid-level ridge through the afternoon/evening across ND/MN. A residual MCS from overnight Saturday may accompany this wave, though the intensity of this MCS by Sunday morning remains uncertain. However, this will have a direct impact on thunderstorm development/evolution Sunday afternoon. Several deterministic solutions (most notably recent NAM and ECMWF runs) suggest either a re-intensification of the MCS and/or new convective development along an outflow boundary across MN by late afternoon. Given forecast MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg and 30-40 knots of deep-layer wind shear, this activity could strengthen into a well-organized, severe MCS through the late evening hours as it propagates southeastward along a warm frontal zone into parts of IA and/or WI. Other solutions, including the high-res RRFS, depict a weaker early-morning MCS and more limited thunderstorm coverage through late evening. Ensemble guidance shows similarly dichotomous solutions. Severe risk probabilities were maintained as-is given then spread in solutions, but higher risk highlights will likely be needed if guidance begins to coalesce around the NAM/ECMWF solutions. ...Mid-Atlantic into parts of New England... A weak surface trough/cold front is forecast to push eastward across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic region through peak heating. A moist air mass will likely remain in place through the weekend and will promote widespread MLCAPE values of at least 1000 J/kg along with limited capping. West/northwesterly flow aloft coupled with modest low-level winds should support adequate deep-layer wind shear for a few strong/severe thunderstorms as convection develops by mid/late afternoon. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England region. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge currently over the Southeast will gradually shift west over the next 48-72 hours into the south-central U.S. Strong/severe thunderstorm chances will largely be focused on the north/northeastern periphery of the ridge as shortwave impulses embedded within strong westerly mid-level flow overspread buoyant air masses. ...Eastern Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley... Forecast confidence remains low for Sunday across the eastern Dakotas into portions of the upper MS Valley. A low-amplitude mid-level wave is forecast to round the apex of the mid-level ridge through the afternoon/evening across ND/MN. A residual MCS from overnight Saturday may accompany this wave, though the intensity of this MCS by Sunday morning remains uncertain. However, this will have a direct impact on thunderstorm development/evolution Sunday afternoon. Several deterministic solutions (most notably recent NAM and ECMWF runs) suggest either a re-intensification of the MCS and/or new convective development along an outflow boundary across MN by late afternoon. Given forecast MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg and 30-40 knots of deep-layer wind shear, this activity could strengthen into a well-organized, severe MCS through the late evening hours as it propagates southeastward along a warm frontal zone into parts of IA and/or WI. Other solutions, including the high-res RRFS, depict a weaker early-morning MCS and more limited thunderstorm coverage through late evening. Ensemble guidance shows similarly dichotomous solutions. Severe risk probabilities were maintained as-is given then spread in solutions, but higher risk highlights will likely be needed if guidance begins to coalesce around the NAM/ECMWF solutions. ...Mid-Atlantic into parts of New England... A weak surface trough/cold front is forecast to push eastward across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic region through peak heating. A moist air mass will likely remain in place through the weekend and will promote widespread MLCAPE values of at least 1000 J/kg along with limited capping. West/northwesterly flow aloft coupled with modest low-level winds should support adequate deep-layer wind shear for a few strong/severe thunderstorms as convection develops by mid/late afternoon. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England region. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge currently over the Southeast will gradually shift west over the next 48-72 hours into the south-central U.S. Strong/severe thunderstorm chances will largely be focused on the north/northeastern periphery of the ridge as shortwave impulses embedded within strong westerly mid-level flow overspread buoyant air masses. ...Eastern Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley... Forecast confidence remains low for Sunday across the eastern Dakotas into portions of the upper MS Valley. A low-amplitude mid-level wave is forecast to round the apex of the mid-level ridge through the afternoon/evening across ND/MN. A residual MCS from overnight Saturday may accompany this wave, though the intensity of this MCS by Sunday morning remains uncertain. However, this will have a direct impact on thunderstorm development/evolution Sunday afternoon. Several deterministic solutions (most notably recent NAM and ECMWF runs) suggest either a re-intensification of the MCS and/or new convective development along an outflow boundary across MN by late afternoon. Given forecast MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg and 30-40 knots of deep-layer wind shear, this activity could strengthen into a well-organized, severe MCS through the late evening hours as it propagates southeastward along a warm frontal zone into parts of IA and/or WI. Other solutions, including the high-res RRFS, depict a weaker early-morning MCS and more limited thunderstorm coverage through late evening. Ensemble guidance shows similarly dichotomous solutions. Severe risk probabilities were maintained as-is given then spread in solutions, but higher risk highlights will likely be needed if guidance begins to coalesce around the NAM/ECMWF solutions. ...Mid-Atlantic into parts of New England... A weak surface trough/cold front is forecast to push eastward across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic region through peak heating. A moist air mass will likely remain in place through the weekend and will promote widespread MLCAPE values of at least 1000 J/kg along with limited capping. West/northwesterly flow aloft coupled with modest low-level winds should support adequate deep-layer wind shear for a few strong/severe thunderstorms as convection develops by mid/late afternoon. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England region. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge currently over the Southeast will gradually shift west over the next 48-72 hours into the south-central U.S. Strong/severe thunderstorm chances will largely be focused on the north/northeastern periphery of the ridge as shortwave impulses embedded within strong westerly mid-level flow overspread buoyant air masses. ...Eastern Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley... Forecast confidence remains low for Sunday across the eastern Dakotas into portions of the upper MS Valley. A low-amplitude mid-level wave is forecast to round the apex of the mid-level ridge through the afternoon/evening across ND/MN. A residual MCS from overnight Saturday may accompany this wave, though the intensity of this MCS by Sunday morning remains uncertain. However, this will have a direct impact on thunderstorm development/evolution Sunday afternoon. Several deterministic solutions (most notably recent NAM and ECMWF runs) suggest either a re-intensification of the MCS and/or new convective development along an outflow boundary across MN by late afternoon. Given forecast MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg and 30-40 knots of deep-layer wind shear, this activity could strengthen into a well-organized, severe MCS through the late evening hours as it propagates southeastward along a warm frontal zone into parts of IA and/or WI. Other solutions, including the high-res RRFS, depict a weaker early-morning MCS and more limited thunderstorm coverage through late evening. Ensemble guidance shows similarly dichotomous solutions. Severe risk probabilities were maintained as-is given then spread in solutions, but higher risk highlights will likely be needed if guidance begins to coalesce around the NAM/ECMWF solutions. ...Mid-Atlantic into parts of New England... A weak surface trough/cold front is forecast to push eastward across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic region through peak heating. A moist air mass will likely remain in place through the weekend and will promote widespread MLCAPE values of at least 1000 J/kg along with limited capping. West/northwesterly flow aloft coupled with modest low-level winds should support adequate deep-layer wind shear for a few strong/severe thunderstorms as convection develops by mid/late afternoon. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England region. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge currently over the Southeast will gradually shift west over the next 48-72 hours into the south-central U.S. Strong/severe thunderstorm chances will largely be focused on the north/northeastern periphery of the ridge as shortwave impulses embedded within strong westerly mid-level flow overspread buoyant air masses. ...Eastern Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley... Forecast confidence remains low for Sunday across the eastern Dakotas into portions of the upper MS Valley. A low-amplitude mid-level wave is forecast to round the apex of the mid-level ridge through the afternoon/evening across ND/MN. A residual MCS from overnight Saturday may accompany this wave, though the intensity of this MCS by Sunday morning remains uncertain. However, this will have a direct impact on thunderstorm development/evolution Sunday afternoon. Several deterministic solutions (most notably recent NAM and ECMWF runs) suggest either a re-intensification of the MCS and/or new convective development along an outflow boundary across MN by late afternoon. Given forecast MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg and 30-40 knots of deep-layer wind shear, this activity could strengthen into a well-organized, severe MCS through the late evening hours as it propagates southeastward along a warm frontal zone into parts of IA and/or WI. Other solutions, including the high-res RRFS, depict a weaker early-morning MCS and more limited thunderstorm coverage through late evening. Ensemble guidance shows similarly dichotomous solutions. Severe risk probabilities were maintained as-is given then spread in solutions, but higher risk highlights will likely be needed if guidance begins to coalesce around the NAM/ECMWF solutions. ...Mid-Atlantic into parts of New England... A weak surface trough/cold front is forecast to push eastward across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic region through peak heating. A moist air mass will likely remain in place through the weekend and will promote widespread MLCAPE values of at least 1000 J/kg along with limited capping. West/northwesterly flow aloft coupled with modest low-level winds should support adequate deep-layer wind shear for a few strong/severe thunderstorms as convection develops by mid/late afternoon. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

MD 1777 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FROM EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1777 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Areas affected...from eastern Pennsylvania into southern New England Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 251705Z - 251830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms will develop after 19Z from eastern Pennsylvania into southern New England, with increasing coverage through about 00Z. Some storms may produce damaging gusts later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A pre-frontal surface trough will deepen this afternoon within a zone of strong heating extending from southern New England southwestward across PA/NJ. Within this zone, a moist air mass remains with PWAT of 1.75 to 2.00". Although shear is marginal for organized severe storms at or below 35 kt, the combination of favorable timing with peak heating, steep boundary layer lapse rates and mean winds of 30-40 kt through a deep layer suggest a few corridors of aggregating storms producing strong to locally severe gusts. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 07/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... LAT...LON 41617043 41367081 41037127 40267261 39727351 39517424 39867538 40017584 40447624 40767643 41257634 41407583 41557505 41667453 41877373 42167277 42527166 42827075 42717051 42447026 42067011 41617043 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

WW 0542 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0542 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0542 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0542 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE DAKOTAS AS WELL AS THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday afternoon/evening in parts of the Upper Midwest/Lower Great Lakes into portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are also likely across the Northern Rockies, central High Plains, and northern Plains. ...Synopsis... The overall synoptic regime will largely remain in place over the next 48 hours across the country, characterized by a persistent upper ridge over the Southeast with longwave troughing west of the Rockies. A diffuse frontal zone draped from the upper OH Valley into the central Plains this morning should largely remain in place across the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region and will act as a foci for thunderstorm development through the afternoon. To the west, a low-amplitude impulse currently off the coast of southwest CA will propagate into the central Rockies/High Plains around peak heating. This will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development that may persist into the overnight hours across the northern Plains. ...Eastern North Dakota... Two rounds of severe thunderstorms appear possible across eastern ND and far northwest MN tomorrow afternoon and overnight. A weak surface front emanating out of the southern Canadian prairies will impinge on the northern edge of a plume of 70-75 dewpoints as it moves into northeast ND and far northwest MN. Steep mid-level lapse rates advecting into the region coupled with rich low-level moisture should support 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon. 30-40 knot mid-level flow will provide adequate deep-layer wind shear for organized storms, including the potential for a few supercells capable of large hail and severe winds. Increasing capping with southward extent should limit the spatial extent of this threat. Morning guidance hints at the passage of an MCS across the Dakotas overnight as a result of upscale growth of convection over the High Plains. Given the steep lapse rates in place upstream per 12z RAOBS and the passage of weak mid-level wave during the overnight period, this scenario appears plausible. However, deterministic solutions vary regarding the intensity of the potential MCS, and nocturnal cooling coupled with warm 850-700 mb temperatures at the base of the EML cast uncertainty onto how intense surface winds will be. Higher risk probabilities may be needed for either of these scenarios as forecast uncertainty become resolved. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern/Central High Plains... An upper-level impulse currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to phase favorably with peak heating over the northern Rockies/central High Plains. This will promote thunderstorm development within the higher terrain of southern MT and northern WY and along a surface trough draped across the western Plains by late afternoon. Strong daytime heating under a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates and on the western fringe of a low-level moisture plume will result in deeply mixed profiles with around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Moderate mid-level flow within the CAPE-bearing layer may support adequate deep-layer shear for a supercell or two across MT/northern WY, but weaker shear with southward extent will limit storm organization/longevity. Regardless, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for strong to severe downburst winds. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic... A weak mid-level impulse/MCV emanating out of the Plains will promote scattered showers and weak thunderstorms across the Midwest at the start of the forecast period. Lingering showers and clouds casts some uncertainty regarding diurnal heating/destabilization, but rich boundary-layer moisture already in place will likely support MLCAPE values upwards of at least 2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Areas along the composite frontal zone that can destabilize will likely see thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon as the MCV propagates east across the Midwest/Great Lakes. Augmented mid-level winds attendant to this feature will support 0-6 km bulk shear values on the order of 20-30 knots, which in conjunction with mean flow along the boundary, should promote a mix of semi-discrete cells and loosely organized clusters capable of damaging to severe winds and perhaps large hail. Further east across southern PA into the Mid-Atlantic, thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid to late afternoon both within the central Appalachians and along a diffuse frontal zone. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, rich low-level moisture should support widespread MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg with minimal capping. Easterly low-level winds under northwesterly mid-level flow will provide sufficient hodograph elongation for organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat for damaging/severe winds. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE DAKOTAS AS WELL AS THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday afternoon/evening in parts of the Upper Midwest/Lower Great Lakes into portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are also likely across the Northern Rockies, central High Plains, and northern Plains. ...Synopsis... The overall synoptic regime will largely remain in place over the next 48 hours across the country, characterized by a persistent upper ridge over the Southeast with longwave troughing west of the Rockies. A diffuse frontal zone draped from the upper OH Valley into the central Plains this morning should largely remain in place across the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region and will act as a foci for thunderstorm development through the afternoon. To the west, a low-amplitude impulse currently off the coast of southwest CA will propagate into the central Rockies/High Plains around peak heating. This will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development that may persist into the overnight hours across the northern Plains. ...Eastern North Dakota... Two rounds of severe thunderstorms appear possible across eastern ND and far northwest MN tomorrow afternoon and overnight. A weak surface front emanating out of the southern Canadian prairies will impinge on the northern edge of a plume of 70-75 dewpoints as it moves into northeast ND and far northwest MN. Steep mid-level lapse rates advecting into the region coupled with rich low-level moisture should support 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon. 30-40 knot mid-level flow will provide adequate deep-layer wind shear for organized storms, including the potential for a few supercells capable of large hail and severe winds. Increasing capping with southward extent should limit the spatial extent of this threat. Morning guidance hints at the passage of an MCS across the Dakotas overnight as a result of upscale growth of convection over the High Plains. Given the steep lapse rates in place upstream per 12z RAOBS and the passage of weak mid-level wave during the overnight period, this scenario appears plausible. However, deterministic solutions vary regarding the intensity of the potential MCS, and nocturnal cooling coupled with warm 850-700 mb temperatures at the base of the EML cast uncertainty onto how intense surface winds will be. Higher risk probabilities may be needed for either of these scenarios as forecast uncertainty become resolved. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern/Central High Plains... An upper-level impulse currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to phase favorably with peak heating over the northern Rockies/central High Plains. This will promote thunderstorm development within the higher terrain of southern MT and northern WY and along a surface trough draped across the western Plains by late afternoon. Strong daytime heating under a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates and on the western fringe of a low-level moisture plume will result in deeply mixed profiles with around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Moderate mid-level flow within the CAPE-bearing layer may support adequate deep-layer shear for a supercell or two across MT/northern WY, but weaker shear with southward extent will limit storm organization/longevity. Regardless, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for strong to severe downburst winds. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic... A weak mid-level impulse/MCV emanating out of the Plains will promote scattered showers and weak thunderstorms across the Midwest at the start of the forecast period. Lingering showers and clouds casts some uncertainty regarding diurnal heating/destabilization, but rich boundary-layer moisture already in place will likely support MLCAPE values upwards of at least 2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Areas along the composite frontal zone that can destabilize will likely see thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon as the MCV propagates east across the Midwest/Great Lakes. Augmented mid-level winds attendant to this feature will support 0-6 km bulk shear values on the order of 20-30 knots, which in conjunction with mean flow along the boundary, should promote a mix of semi-discrete cells and loosely organized clusters capable of damaging to severe winds and perhaps large hail. Further east across southern PA into the Mid-Atlantic, thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid to late afternoon both within the central Appalachians and along a diffuse frontal zone. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, rich low-level moisture should support widespread MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg with minimal capping. Easterly low-level winds under northwesterly mid-level flow will provide sufficient hodograph elongation for organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat for damaging/severe winds. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE DAKOTAS AS WELL AS THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday afternoon/evening in parts of the Upper Midwest/Lower Great Lakes into portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are also likely across the Northern Rockies, central High Plains, and northern Plains. ...Synopsis... The overall synoptic regime will largely remain in place over the next 48 hours across the country, characterized by a persistent upper ridge over the Southeast with longwave troughing west of the Rockies. A diffuse frontal zone draped from the upper OH Valley into the central Plains this morning should largely remain in place across the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region and will act as a foci for thunderstorm development through the afternoon. To the west, a low-amplitude impulse currently off the coast of southwest CA will propagate into the central Rockies/High Plains around peak heating. This will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development that may persist into the overnight hours across the northern Plains. ...Eastern North Dakota... Two rounds of severe thunderstorms appear possible across eastern ND and far northwest MN tomorrow afternoon and overnight. A weak surface front emanating out of the southern Canadian prairies will impinge on the northern edge of a plume of 70-75 dewpoints as it moves into northeast ND and far northwest MN. Steep mid-level lapse rates advecting into the region coupled with rich low-level moisture should support 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon. 30-40 knot mid-level flow will provide adequate deep-layer wind shear for organized storms, including the potential for a few supercells capable of large hail and severe winds. Increasing capping with southward extent should limit the spatial extent of this threat. Morning guidance hints at the passage of an MCS across the Dakotas overnight as a result of upscale growth of convection over the High Plains. Given the steep lapse rates in place upstream per 12z RAOBS and the passage of weak mid-level wave during the overnight period, this scenario appears plausible. However, deterministic solutions vary regarding the intensity of the potential MCS, and nocturnal cooling coupled with warm 850-700 mb temperatures at the base of the EML cast uncertainty onto how intense surface winds will be. Higher risk probabilities may be needed for either of these scenarios as forecast uncertainty become resolved. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern/Central High Plains... An upper-level impulse currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to phase favorably with peak heating over the northern Rockies/central High Plains. This will promote thunderstorm development within the higher terrain of southern MT and northern WY and along a surface trough draped across the western Plains by late afternoon. Strong daytime heating under a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates and on the western fringe of a low-level moisture plume will result in deeply mixed profiles with around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Moderate mid-level flow within the CAPE-bearing layer may support adequate deep-layer shear for a supercell or two across MT/northern WY, but weaker shear with southward extent will limit storm organization/longevity. Regardless, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for strong to severe downburst winds. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic... A weak mid-level impulse/MCV emanating out of the Plains will promote scattered showers and weak thunderstorms across the Midwest at the start of the forecast period. Lingering showers and clouds casts some uncertainty regarding diurnal heating/destabilization, but rich boundary-layer moisture already in place will likely support MLCAPE values upwards of at least 2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Areas along the composite frontal zone that can destabilize will likely see thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon as the MCV propagates east across the Midwest/Great Lakes. Augmented mid-level winds attendant to this feature will support 0-6 km bulk shear values on the order of 20-30 knots, which in conjunction with mean flow along the boundary, should promote a mix of semi-discrete cells and loosely organized clusters capable of damaging to severe winds and perhaps large hail. Further east across southern PA into the Mid-Atlantic, thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid to late afternoon both within the central Appalachians and along a diffuse frontal zone. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, rich low-level moisture should support widespread MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg with minimal capping. Easterly low-level winds under northwesterly mid-level flow will provide sufficient hodograph elongation for organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat for damaging/severe winds. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE DAKOTAS AS WELL AS THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday afternoon/evening in parts of the Upper Midwest/Lower Great Lakes into portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are also likely across the Northern Rockies, central High Plains, and northern Plains. ...Synopsis... The overall synoptic regime will largely remain in place over the next 48 hours across the country, characterized by a persistent upper ridge over the Southeast with longwave troughing west of the Rockies. A diffuse frontal zone draped from the upper OH Valley into the central Plains this morning should largely remain in place across the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region and will act as a foci for thunderstorm development through the afternoon. To the west, a low-amplitude impulse currently off the coast of southwest CA will propagate into the central Rockies/High Plains around peak heating. This will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development that may persist into the overnight hours across the northern Plains. ...Eastern North Dakota... Two rounds of severe thunderstorms appear possible across eastern ND and far northwest MN tomorrow afternoon and overnight. A weak surface front emanating out of the southern Canadian prairies will impinge on the northern edge of a plume of 70-75 dewpoints as it moves into northeast ND and far northwest MN. Steep mid-level lapse rates advecting into the region coupled with rich low-level moisture should support 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon. 30-40 knot mid-level flow will provide adequate deep-layer wind shear for organized storms, including the potential for a few supercells capable of large hail and severe winds. Increasing capping with southward extent should limit the spatial extent of this threat. Morning guidance hints at the passage of an MCS across the Dakotas overnight as a result of upscale growth of convection over the High Plains. Given the steep lapse rates in place upstream per 12z RAOBS and the passage of weak mid-level wave during the overnight period, this scenario appears plausible. However, deterministic solutions vary regarding the intensity of the potential MCS, and nocturnal cooling coupled with warm 850-700 mb temperatures at the base of the EML cast uncertainty onto how intense surface winds will be. Higher risk probabilities may be needed for either of these scenarios as forecast uncertainty become resolved. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern/Central High Plains... An upper-level impulse currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to phase favorably with peak heating over the northern Rockies/central High Plains. This will promote thunderstorm development within the higher terrain of southern MT and northern WY and along a surface trough draped across the western Plains by late afternoon. Strong daytime heating under a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates and on the western fringe of a low-level moisture plume will result in deeply mixed profiles with around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Moderate mid-level flow within the CAPE-bearing layer may support adequate deep-layer shear for a supercell or two across MT/northern WY, but weaker shear with southward extent will limit storm organization/longevity. Regardless, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for strong to severe downburst winds. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic... A weak mid-level impulse/MCV emanating out of the Plains will promote scattered showers and weak thunderstorms across the Midwest at the start of the forecast period. Lingering showers and clouds casts some uncertainty regarding diurnal heating/destabilization, but rich boundary-layer moisture already in place will likely support MLCAPE values upwards of at least 2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Areas along the composite frontal zone that can destabilize will likely see thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon as the MCV propagates east across the Midwest/Great Lakes. Augmented mid-level winds attendant to this feature will support 0-6 km bulk shear values on the order of 20-30 knots, which in conjunction with mean flow along the boundary, should promote a mix of semi-discrete cells and loosely organized clusters capable of damaging to severe winds and perhaps large hail. Further east across southern PA into the Mid-Atlantic, thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid to late afternoon both within the central Appalachians and along a diffuse frontal zone. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, rich low-level moisture should support widespread MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg with minimal capping. Easterly low-level winds under northwesterly mid-level flow will provide sufficient hodograph elongation for organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat for damaging/severe winds. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE DAKOTAS AS WELL AS THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday afternoon/evening in parts of the Upper Midwest/Lower Great Lakes into portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are also likely across the Northern Rockies, central High Plains, and northern Plains. ...Synopsis... The overall synoptic regime will largely remain in place over the next 48 hours across the country, characterized by a persistent upper ridge over the Southeast with longwave troughing west of the Rockies. A diffuse frontal zone draped from the upper OH Valley into the central Plains this morning should largely remain in place across the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region and will act as a foci for thunderstorm development through the afternoon. To the west, a low-amplitude impulse currently off the coast of southwest CA will propagate into the central Rockies/High Plains around peak heating. This will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development that may persist into the overnight hours across the northern Plains. ...Eastern North Dakota... Two rounds of severe thunderstorms appear possible across eastern ND and far northwest MN tomorrow afternoon and overnight. A weak surface front emanating out of the southern Canadian prairies will impinge on the northern edge of a plume of 70-75 dewpoints as it moves into northeast ND and far northwest MN. Steep mid-level lapse rates advecting into the region coupled with rich low-level moisture should support 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon. 30-40 knot mid-level flow will provide adequate deep-layer wind shear for organized storms, including the potential for a few supercells capable of large hail and severe winds. Increasing capping with southward extent should limit the spatial extent of this threat. Morning guidance hints at the passage of an MCS across the Dakotas overnight as a result of upscale growth of convection over the High Plains. Given the steep lapse rates in place upstream per 12z RAOBS and the passage of weak mid-level wave during the overnight period, this scenario appears plausible. However, deterministic solutions vary regarding the intensity of the potential MCS, and nocturnal cooling coupled with warm 850-700 mb temperatures at the base of the EML cast uncertainty onto how intense surface winds will be. Higher risk probabilities may be needed for either of these scenarios as forecast uncertainty become resolved. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern/Central High Plains... An upper-level impulse currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to phase favorably with peak heating over the northern Rockies/central High Plains. This will promote thunderstorm development within the higher terrain of southern MT and northern WY and along a surface trough draped across the western Plains by late afternoon. Strong daytime heating under a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates and on the western fringe of a low-level moisture plume will result in deeply mixed profiles with around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Moderate mid-level flow within the CAPE-bearing layer may support adequate deep-layer shear for a supercell or two across MT/northern WY, but weaker shear with southward extent will limit storm organization/longevity. Regardless, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for strong to severe downburst winds. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic... A weak mid-level impulse/MCV emanating out of the Plains will promote scattered showers and weak thunderstorms across the Midwest at the start of the forecast period. Lingering showers and clouds casts some uncertainty regarding diurnal heating/destabilization, but rich boundary-layer moisture already in place will likely support MLCAPE values upwards of at least 2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Areas along the composite frontal zone that can destabilize will likely see thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon as the MCV propagates east across the Midwest/Great Lakes. Augmented mid-level winds attendant to this feature will support 0-6 km bulk shear values on the order of 20-30 knots, which in conjunction with mean flow along the boundary, should promote a mix of semi-discrete cells and loosely organized clusters capable of damaging to severe winds and perhaps large hail. Further east across southern PA into the Mid-Atlantic, thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid to late afternoon both within the central Appalachians and along a diffuse frontal zone. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, rich low-level moisture should support widespread MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg with minimal capping. Easterly low-level winds under northwesterly mid-level flow will provide sufficient hodograph elongation for organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat for damaging/severe winds. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE DAKOTAS AS WELL AS THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday afternoon/evening in parts of the Upper Midwest/Lower Great Lakes into portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are also likely across the Northern Rockies, central High Plains, and northern Plains. ...Synopsis... The overall synoptic regime will largely remain in place over the next 48 hours across the country, characterized by a persistent upper ridge over the Southeast with longwave troughing west of the Rockies. A diffuse frontal zone draped from the upper OH Valley into the central Plains this morning should largely remain in place across the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region and will act as a foci for thunderstorm development through the afternoon. To the west, a low-amplitude impulse currently off the coast of southwest CA will propagate into the central Rockies/High Plains around peak heating. This will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development that may persist into the overnight hours across the northern Plains. ...Eastern North Dakota... Two rounds of severe thunderstorms appear possible across eastern ND and far northwest MN tomorrow afternoon and overnight. A weak surface front emanating out of the southern Canadian prairies will impinge on the northern edge of a plume of 70-75 dewpoints as it moves into northeast ND and far northwest MN. Steep mid-level lapse rates advecting into the region coupled with rich low-level moisture should support 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon. 30-40 knot mid-level flow will provide adequate deep-layer wind shear for organized storms, including the potential for a few supercells capable of large hail and severe winds. Increasing capping with southward extent should limit the spatial extent of this threat. Morning guidance hints at the passage of an MCS across the Dakotas overnight as a result of upscale growth of convection over the High Plains. Given the steep lapse rates in place upstream per 12z RAOBS and the passage of weak mid-level wave during the overnight period, this scenario appears plausible. However, deterministic solutions vary regarding the intensity of the potential MCS, and nocturnal cooling coupled with warm 850-700 mb temperatures at the base of the EML cast uncertainty onto how intense surface winds will be. Higher risk probabilities may be needed for either of these scenarios as forecast uncertainty become resolved. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern/Central High Plains... An upper-level impulse currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to phase favorably with peak heating over the northern Rockies/central High Plains. This will promote thunderstorm development within the higher terrain of southern MT and northern WY and along a surface trough draped across the western Plains by late afternoon. Strong daytime heating under a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates and on the western fringe of a low-level moisture plume will result in deeply mixed profiles with around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Moderate mid-level flow within the CAPE-bearing layer may support adequate deep-layer shear for a supercell or two across MT/northern WY, but weaker shear with southward extent will limit storm organization/longevity. Regardless, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for strong to severe downburst winds. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic... A weak mid-level impulse/MCV emanating out of the Plains will promote scattered showers and weak thunderstorms across the Midwest at the start of the forecast period. Lingering showers and clouds casts some uncertainty regarding diurnal heating/destabilization, but rich boundary-layer moisture already in place will likely support MLCAPE values upwards of at least 2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Areas along the composite frontal zone that can destabilize will likely see thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon as the MCV propagates east across the Midwest/Great Lakes. Augmented mid-level winds attendant to this feature will support 0-6 km bulk shear values on the order of 20-30 knots, which in conjunction with mean flow along the boundary, should promote a mix of semi-discrete cells and loosely organized clusters capable of damaging to severe winds and perhaps large hail. Further east across southern PA into the Mid-Atlantic, thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid to late afternoon both within the central Appalachians and along a diffuse frontal zone. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, rich low-level moisture should support widespread MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg with minimal capping. Easterly low-level winds under northwesterly mid-level flow will provide sufficient hodograph elongation for organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat for damaging/severe winds. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE DAKOTAS AS WELL AS THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday afternoon/evening in parts of the Upper Midwest/Lower Great Lakes into portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are also likely across the Northern Rockies, central High Plains, and northern Plains. ...Synopsis... The overall synoptic regime will largely remain in place over the next 48 hours across the country, characterized by a persistent upper ridge over the Southeast with longwave troughing west of the Rockies. A diffuse frontal zone draped from the upper OH Valley into the central Plains this morning should largely remain in place across the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region and will act as a foci for thunderstorm development through the afternoon. To the west, a low-amplitude impulse currently off the coast of southwest CA will propagate into the central Rockies/High Plains around peak heating. This will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development that may persist into the overnight hours across the northern Plains. ...Eastern North Dakota... Two rounds of severe thunderstorms appear possible across eastern ND and far northwest MN tomorrow afternoon and overnight. A weak surface front emanating out of the southern Canadian prairies will impinge on the northern edge of a plume of 70-75 dewpoints as it moves into northeast ND and far northwest MN. Steep mid-level lapse rates advecting into the region coupled with rich low-level moisture should support 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon. 30-40 knot mid-level flow will provide adequate deep-layer wind shear for organized storms, including the potential for a few supercells capable of large hail and severe winds. Increasing capping with southward extent should limit the spatial extent of this threat. Morning guidance hints at the passage of an MCS across the Dakotas overnight as a result of upscale growth of convection over the High Plains. Given the steep lapse rates in place upstream per 12z RAOBS and the passage of weak mid-level wave during the overnight period, this scenario appears plausible. However, deterministic solutions vary regarding the intensity of the potential MCS, and nocturnal cooling coupled with warm 850-700 mb temperatures at the base of the EML cast uncertainty onto how intense surface winds will be. Higher risk probabilities may be needed for either of these scenarios as forecast uncertainty become resolved. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern/Central High Plains... An upper-level impulse currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to phase favorably with peak heating over the northern Rockies/central High Plains. This will promote thunderstorm development within the higher terrain of southern MT and northern WY and along a surface trough draped across the western Plains by late afternoon. Strong daytime heating under a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates and on the western fringe of a low-level moisture plume will result in deeply mixed profiles with around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Moderate mid-level flow within the CAPE-bearing layer may support adequate deep-layer shear for a supercell or two across MT/northern WY, but weaker shear with southward extent will limit storm organization/longevity. Regardless, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for strong to severe downburst winds. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic... A weak mid-level impulse/MCV emanating out of the Plains will promote scattered showers and weak thunderstorms across the Midwest at the start of the forecast period. Lingering showers and clouds casts some uncertainty regarding diurnal heating/destabilization, but rich boundary-layer moisture already in place will likely support MLCAPE values upwards of at least 2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Areas along the composite frontal zone that can destabilize will likely see thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon as the MCV propagates east across the Midwest/Great Lakes. Augmented mid-level winds attendant to this feature will support 0-6 km bulk shear values on the order of 20-30 knots, which in conjunction with mean flow along the boundary, should promote a mix of semi-discrete cells and loosely organized clusters capable of damaging to severe winds and perhaps large hail. Further east across southern PA into the Mid-Atlantic, thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid to late afternoon both within the central Appalachians and along a diffuse frontal zone. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, rich low-level moisture should support widespread MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg with minimal capping. Easterly low-level winds under northwesterly mid-level flow will provide sufficient hodograph elongation for organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat for damaging/severe winds. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE DAKOTAS AS WELL AS THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday afternoon/evening in parts of the Upper Midwest/Lower Great Lakes into portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are also likely across the Northern Rockies, central High Plains, and northern Plains. ...Synopsis... The overall synoptic regime will largely remain in place over the next 48 hours across the country, characterized by a persistent upper ridge over the Southeast with longwave troughing west of the Rockies. A diffuse frontal zone draped from the upper OH Valley into the central Plains this morning should largely remain in place across the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region and will act as a foci for thunderstorm development through the afternoon. To the west, a low-amplitude impulse currently off the coast of southwest CA will propagate into the central Rockies/High Plains around peak heating. This will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development that may persist into the overnight hours across the northern Plains. ...Eastern North Dakota... Two rounds of severe thunderstorms appear possible across eastern ND and far northwest MN tomorrow afternoon and overnight. A weak surface front emanating out of the southern Canadian prairies will impinge on the northern edge of a plume of 70-75 dewpoints as it moves into northeast ND and far northwest MN. Steep mid-level lapse rates advecting into the region coupled with rich low-level moisture should support 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon. 30-40 knot mid-level flow will provide adequate deep-layer wind shear for organized storms, including the potential for a few supercells capable of large hail and severe winds. Increasing capping with southward extent should limit the spatial extent of this threat. Morning guidance hints at the passage of an MCS across the Dakotas overnight as a result of upscale growth of convection over the High Plains. Given the steep lapse rates in place upstream per 12z RAOBS and the passage of weak mid-level wave during the overnight period, this scenario appears plausible. However, deterministic solutions vary regarding the intensity of the potential MCS, and nocturnal cooling coupled with warm 850-700 mb temperatures at the base of the EML cast uncertainty onto how intense surface winds will be. Higher risk probabilities may be needed for either of these scenarios as forecast uncertainty become resolved. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern/Central High Plains... An upper-level impulse currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to phase favorably with peak heating over the northern Rockies/central High Plains. This will promote thunderstorm development within the higher terrain of southern MT and northern WY and along a surface trough draped across the western Plains by late afternoon. Strong daytime heating under a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates and on the western fringe of a low-level moisture plume will result in deeply mixed profiles with around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Moderate mid-level flow within the CAPE-bearing layer may support adequate deep-layer shear for a supercell or two across MT/northern WY, but weaker shear with southward extent will limit storm organization/longevity. Regardless, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for strong to severe downburst winds. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic... A weak mid-level impulse/MCV emanating out of the Plains will promote scattered showers and weak thunderstorms across the Midwest at the start of the forecast period. Lingering showers and clouds casts some uncertainty regarding diurnal heating/destabilization, but rich boundary-layer moisture already in place will likely support MLCAPE values upwards of at least 2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Areas along the composite frontal zone that can destabilize will likely see thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon as the MCV propagates east across the Midwest/Great Lakes. Augmented mid-level winds attendant to this feature will support 0-6 km bulk shear values on the order of 20-30 knots, which in conjunction with mean flow along the boundary, should promote a mix of semi-discrete cells and loosely organized clusters capable of damaging to severe winds and perhaps large hail. Further east across southern PA into the Mid-Atlantic, thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid to late afternoon both within the central Appalachians and along a diffuse frontal zone. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, rich low-level moisture should support widespread MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg with minimal capping. Easterly low-level winds under northwesterly mid-level flow will provide sufficient hodograph elongation for organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat for damaging/severe winds. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE DAKOTAS AS WELL AS THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday afternoon/evening in parts of the Upper Midwest/Lower Great Lakes into portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are also likely across the Northern Rockies, central High Plains, and northern Plains. ...Synopsis... The overall synoptic regime will largely remain in place over the next 48 hours across the country, characterized by a persistent upper ridge over the Southeast with longwave troughing west of the Rockies. A diffuse frontal zone draped from the upper OH Valley into the central Plains this morning should largely remain in place across the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region and will act as a foci for thunderstorm development through the afternoon. To the west, a low-amplitude impulse currently off the coast of southwest CA will propagate into the central Rockies/High Plains around peak heating. This will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development that may persist into the overnight hours across the northern Plains. ...Eastern North Dakota... Two rounds of severe thunderstorms appear possible across eastern ND and far northwest MN tomorrow afternoon and overnight. A weak surface front emanating out of the southern Canadian prairies will impinge on the northern edge of a plume of 70-75 dewpoints as it moves into northeast ND and far northwest MN. Steep mid-level lapse rates advecting into the region coupled with rich low-level moisture should support 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon. 30-40 knot mid-level flow will provide adequate deep-layer wind shear for organized storms, including the potential for a few supercells capable of large hail and severe winds. Increasing capping with southward extent should limit the spatial extent of this threat. Morning guidance hints at the passage of an MCS across the Dakotas overnight as a result of upscale growth of convection over the High Plains. Given the steep lapse rates in place upstream per 12z RAOBS and the passage of weak mid-level wave during the overnight period, this scenario appears plausible. However, deterministic solutions vary regarding the intensity of the potential MCS, and nocturnal cooling coupled with warm 850-700 mb temperatures at the base of the EML cast uncertainty onto how intense surface winds will be. Higher risk probabilities may be needed for either of these scenarios as forecast uncertainty become resolved. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern/Central High Plains... An upper-level impulse currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to phase favorably with peak heating over the northern Rockies/central High Plains. This will promote thunderstorm development within the higher terrain of southern MT and northern WY and along a surface trough draped across the western Plains by late afternoon. Strong daytime heating under a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates and on the western fringe of a low-level moisture plume will result in deeply mixed profiles with around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Moderate mid-level flow within the CAPE-bearing layer may support adequate deep-layer shear for a supercell or two across MT/northern WY, but weaker shear with southward extent will limit storm organization/longevity. Regardless, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for strong to severe downburst winds. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic... A weak mid-level impulse/MCV emanating out of the Plains will promote scattered showers and weak thunderstorms across the Midwest at the start of the forecast period. Lingering showers and clouds casts some uncertainty regarding diurnal heating/destabilization, but rich boundary-layer moisture already in place will likely support MLCAPE values upwards of at least 2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Areas along the composite frontal zone that can destabilize will likely see thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon as the MCV propagates east across the Midwest/Great Lakes. Augmented mid-level winds attendant to this feature will support 0-6 km bulk shear values on the order of 20-30 knots, which in conjunction with mean flow along the boundary, should promote a mix of semi-discrete cells and loosely organized clusters capable of damaging to severe winds and perhaps large hail. Further east across southern PA into the Mid-Atlantic, thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid to late afternoon both within the central Appalachians and along a diffuse frontal zone. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, rich low-level moisture should support widespread MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg with minimal capping. Easterly low-level winds under northwesterly mid-level flow will provide sufficient hodograph elongation for organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat for damaging/severe winds. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE DAKOTAS AS WELL AS THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday afternoon/evening in parts of the Upper Midwest/Lower Great Lakes into portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are also likely across the Northern Rockies, central High Plains, and northern Plains. ...Synopsis... The overall synoptic regime will largely remain in place over the next 48 hours across the country, characterized by a persistent upper ridge over the Southeast with longwave troughing west of the Rockies. A diffuse frontal zone draped from the upper OH Valley into the central Plains this morning should largely remain in place across the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region and will act as a foci for thunderstorm development through the afternoon. To the west, a low-amplitude impulse currently off the coast of southwest CA will propagate into the central Rockies/High Plains around peak heating. This will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development that may persist into the overnight hours across the northern Plains. ...Eastern North Dakota... Two rounds of severe thunderstorms appear possible across eastern ND and far northwest MN tomorrow afternoon and overnight. A weak surface front emanating out of the southern Canadian prairies will impinge on the northern edge of a plume of 70-75 dewpoints as it moves into northeast ND and far northwest MN. Steep mid-level lapse rates advecting into the region coupled with rich low-level moisture should support 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon. 30-40 knot mid-level flow will provide adequate deep-layer wind shear for organized storms, including the potential for a few supercells capable of large hail and severe winds. Increasing capping with southward extent should limit the spatial extent of this threat. Morning guidance hints at the passage of an MCS across the Dakotas overnight as a result of upscale growth of convection over the High Plains. Given the steep lapse rates in place upstream per 12z RAOBS and the passage of weak mid-level wave during the overnight period, this scenario appears plausible. However, deterministic solutions vary regarding the intensity of the potential MCS, and nocturnal cooling coupled with warm 850-700 mb temperatures at the base of the EML cast uncertainty onto how intense surface winds will be. Higher risk probabilities may be needed for either of these scenarios as forecast uncertainty become resolved. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern/Central High Plains... An upper-level impulse currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to phase favorably with peak heating over the northern Rockies/central High Plains. This will promote thunderstorm development within the higher terrain of southern MT and northern WY and along a surface trough draped across the western Plains by late afternoon. Strong daytime heating under a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates and on the western fringe of a low-level moisture plume will result in deeply mixed profiles with around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Moderate mid-level flow within the CAPE-bearing layer may support adequate deep-layer shear for a supercell or two across MT/northern WY, but weaker shear with southward extent will limit storm organization/longevity. Regardless, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for strong to severe downburst winds. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic... A weak mid-level impulse/MCV emanating out of the Plains will promote scattered showers and weak thunderstorms across the Midwest at the start of the forecast period. Lingering showers and clouds casts some uncertainty regarding diurnal heating/destabilization, but rich boundary-layer moisture already in place will likely support MLCAPE values upwards of at least 2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Areas along the composite frontal zone that can destabilize will likely see thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon as the MCV propagates east across the Midwest/Great Lakes. Augmented mid-level winds attendant to this feature will support 0-6 km bulk shear values on the order of 20-30 knots, which in conjunction with mean flow along the boundary, should promote a mix of semi-discrete cells and loosely organized clusters capable of damaging to severe winds and perhaps large hail. Further east across southern PA into the Mid-Atlantic, thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid to late afternoon both within the central Appalachians and along a diffuse frontal zone. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, rich low-level moisture should support widespread MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg with minimal capping. Easterly low-level winds under northwesterly mid-level flow will provide sufficient hodograph elongation for organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat for damaging/severe winds. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE DAKOTAS AS WELL AS THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday afternoon/evening in parts of the Upper Midwest/Lower Great Lakes into portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are also likely across the Northern Rockies, central High Plains, and northern Plains. ...Synopsis... The overall synoptic regime will largely remain in place over the next 48 hours across the country, characterized by a persistent upper ridge over the Southeast with longwave troughing west of the Rockies. A diffuse frontal zone draped from the upper OH Valley into the central Plains this morning should largely remain in place across the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region and will act as a foci for thunderstorm development through the afternoon. To the west, a low-amplitude impulse currently off the coast of southwest CA will propagate into the central Rockies/High Plains around peak heating. This will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development that may persist into the overnight hours across the northern Plains. ...Eastern North Dakota... Two rounds of severe thunderstorms appear possible across eastern ND and far northwest MN tomorrow afternoon and overnight. A weak surface front emanating out of the southern Canadian prairies will impinge on the northern edge of a plume of 70-75 dewpoints as it moves into northeast ND and far northwest MN. Steep mid-level lapse rates advecting into the region coupled with rich low-level moisture should support 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon. 30-40 knot mid-level flow will provide adequate deep-layer wind shear for organized storms, including the potential for a few supercells capable of large hail and severe winds. Increasing capping with southward extent should limit the spatial extent of this threat. Morning guidance hints at the passage of an MCS across the Dakotas overnight as a result of upscale growth of convection over the High Plains. Given the steep lapse rates in place upstream per 12z RAOBS and the passage of weak mid-level wave during the overnight period, this scenario appears plausible. However, deterministic solutions vary regarding the intensity of the potential MCS, and nocturnal cooling coupled with warm 850-700 mb temperatures at the base of the EML cast uncertainty onto how intense surface winds will be. Higher risk probabilities may be needed for either of these scenarios as forecast uncertainty become resolved. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern/Central High Plains... An upper-level impulse currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to phase favorably with peak heating over the northern Rockies/central High Plains. This will promote thunderstorm development within the higher terrain of southern MT and northern WY and along a surface trough draped across the western Plains by late afternoon. Strong daytime heating under a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates and on the western fringe of a low-level moisture plume will result in deeply mixed profiles with around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Moderate mid-level flow within the CAPE-bearing layer may support adequate deep-layer shear for a supercell or two across MT/northern WY, but weaker shear with southward extent will limit storm organization/longevity. Regardless, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for strong to severe downburst winds. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic... A weak mid-level impulse/MCV emanating out of the Plains will promote scattered showers and weak thunderstorms across the Midwest at the start of the forecast period. Lingering showers and clouds casts some uncertainty regarding diurnal heating/destabilization, but rich boundary-layer moisture already in place will likely support MLCAPE values upwards of at least 2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Areas along the composite frontal zone that can destabilize will likely see thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon as the MCV propagates east across the Midwest/Great Lakes. Augmented mid-level winds attendant to this feature will support 0-6 km bulk shear values on the order of 20-30 knots, which in conjunction with mean flow along the boundary, should promote a mix of semi-discrete cells and loosely organized clusters capable of damaging to severe winds and perhaps large hail. Further east across southern PA into the Mid-Atlantic, thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid to late afternoon both within the central Appalachians and along a diffuse frontal zone. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, rich low-level moisture should support widespread MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg with minimal capping. Easterly low-level winds under northwesterly mid-level flow will provide sufficient hodograph elongation for organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat for damaging/severe winds. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more