Severe Storms

WW 0543 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0543 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0542 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 542 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE UNV TO 5 WSW CXY TO 30 ENE CXY TO 15 WSW ABE TO 20 E ABE TO 15 N JFK TO 30 WSW GON TO EWB TO 20 NNW HYA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1779 ..JEWELL..07/25/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 542 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC003-252140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NEW CASTLE MAC001-007-019-252140- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNSTABLE DUKES NANTUCKET NJC001-005-007-011-015-017-019-021-023-025-029-033-035-039- 252140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0542 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 542 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE UNV TO 5 WSW CXY TO 30 ENE CXY TO 15 WSW ABE TO 20 E ABE TO 15 N JFK TO 30 WSW GON TO EWB TO 20 NNW HYA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1779 ..JEWELL..07/25/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 542 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC003-252140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NEW CASTLE MAC001-007-019-252140- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNSTABLE DUKES NANTUCKET NJC001-005-007-011-015-017-019-021-023-025-029-033-035-039- 252140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0542 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 542 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE UNV TO 5 WSW CXY TO 30 ENE CXY TO 15 WSW ABE TO 20 E ABE TO 15 N JFK TO 30 WSW GON TO EWB TO 20 NNW HYA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1779 ..JEWELL..07/25/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 542 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC003-252140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NEW CASTLE MAC001-007-019-252140- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNSTABLE DUKES NANTUCKET NJC001-005-007-011-015-017-019-021-023-025-029-033-035-039- 252140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0542 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 542 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE UNV TO 5 WSW CXY TO 30 ENE CXY TO 15 WSW ABE TO 20 E ABE TO 15 N JFK TO 30 WSW GON TO EWB TO 20 NNW HYA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1779 ..JEWELL..07/25/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 542 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC003-252140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NEW CASTLE MAC001-007-019-252140- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNSTABLE DUKES NANTUCKET NJC001-005-007-011-015-017-019-021-023-025-029-033-035-039- 252140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 542 SEVERE TSTM CT DE MA NJ NY PA RI CW 251745Z - 260100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 542 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Northern Delaware Massachusetts New Jersey Southeast New York Eastern Pennsylvania Rhode Island Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will continue to develop and intensify early this afternoon with damaging winds possible as storms move generally southeastward across the region through late afternoon and early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles north northeast of New Bedford MA to 15 miles northwest of Harrisburg PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1785 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN MONTANA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1785 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Areas affected...portions of far eastern Montana into central North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 252343Z - 260145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat may increase into the evening in tandem with storm coverage, especially if MCS upscale growth occurs. Severe hail may accompany discrete storms, with severe wind occurring with more linear structures. DISCUSSION...A supercell is in progress across east-central MT, with more multicellular storms in progress to the northeast, along the MT/ND border. These storms continue to advance eastward amid a more moist, unstable, less capped airmass, characterized by 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE. A weak 500 mb vort max embedded in the larger scale mid-level flow is currently traversing central MT, and as it advances eastward, it may encourage an increase in storm coverage. Despite weaker vertical wind shear, enough buoyancy is in place to support a severe threat. The ongoing, more discrete storms may pose a threat for severe hail. Severe gusts may occur with any storms, but may become more likely if storm mergers occur, or if an MCS can develop. A WW issuance is possible, especially if signs of upscale growth are observed. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 46510537 47570491 48050447 48420364 48590023 48189958 47769930 47349917 46799926 46429985 46110121 46110238 46170404 46200475 46510537 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1784 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 542... FOR SOUTHEAST PA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NJ...DE...NORTHERN/EASTERN MD
Mesoscale Discussion 1784 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0609 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Areas affected...Southeast PA...central/southern NJ...DE...northern/eastern MD Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 542... Valid 252309Z - 260045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 542 continues. SUMMARY...In the wake of earlier storms, locally damaging winds remain possible before remaining storms weaken later this evening. DISCUSSION...A storm cluster with a history of producing wind damage is approaching the southern NJ coast as of 23 UTC this evening. Pockets of moderate buoyancy persist in the wake of earlier convection, and also south of the outflow into parts of eastern MD and DE. Effective shear of 30-40 kt remains favorable for organized convection, and a few stronger cells/clusters are possible through dusk, with locally damaging wind possible. Eventually, nocturnal cooling and the stabilizing effects of outflow should lead to a weakening trend later this evening. ..Dean.. 07/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 40277754 40937703 40817547 40397455 39717388 39187419 38387477 38117562 38727651 39457761 39857754 40277754 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

MD 1783 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL OK INTO EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1783 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0520 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Areas affected...western/north-central OK into extreme south-central KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 252220Z - 260045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms with localized strong/damaging gusts are possible into this evening. DISCUSSION...One storm has developed across north-central OK late this afternoon, with other cumulus building in the vicinity of a surface boundary from west-central OK into south-central KS. Midlevel lapse rates are weak, but strong heating of a moist environment has resulted in MLCAPE increasing to near above 2500 J/kg, and storm coverage should increase into the early evening. This region is on the southern periphery of modestly enhanced midlevel flow associated with an MCV across northern KS. Effective shear of around 20 kt and steep low-level lapse rates could support weakly organized storms capable of localized downbursts and strong outflow winds into this evening. ..Dean/Mosier.. 07/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 35189911 36639831 37459766 37459710 37319643 36789609 35539757 34959863 35189911 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

MD 1781 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHWESTERN NEVADA
Mesoscale Discussion 1781 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Areas affected...portions of northeastern California into northwestern Nevada Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 252157Z - 260000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few severe gusts may accompany the stronger downbursts through the remainder of the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Pulse-cellular storms have developed over the past few hours along the CA/NV border, amid 9+ C/km low-level lapse rates and up to 1000 J/kg SBCAPE. RAP forecast soundings depict inverted-v thermodynamic profiles, suggesting that downbursts in the stronger storm cores may support isolated strong to severe thunderstorm wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening hours. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LKN...REV...HNX...MFR...STO... LAT...LON 38031978 40472136 41272154 41642112 41672022 41461928 41051875 39981850 39221853 38361917 38031978 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 1782 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1782 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0509 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern Colorado into western Nebraska and southwestern South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 252209Z - 252345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few of the stronger storms may produce isolated severe gusts and perhaps hail through the afternoon and early evening. DISCUSSION...Relatively isolated thunderstorms have developed off of the higher terrain, from eastern CO into western NE and southwestern SD, driven by afternoon peak heating and orographic lift amid eroded MLCINH. These storms may meander eastward over the next few hours, where surface temperatures/dewpoints in the 90s/50s, beneath 8+ C/km tropospheric lapse rates, support 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Vertical wind shear is weak, and the weak forcing also suggests that storms should remain isolated, so the severe wind/hail risks should be sparse at best. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 39580488 40790486 41070484 41800431 43490344 44250342 44490319 44380240 43530196 42370195 40760250 39360296 39060315 38940351 38970422 39580488 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1780 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1780 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern Montana into western North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 252147Z - 252315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A few instances of severe wind and hail may accompany the stronger, sustained storms. A WW issuance is possible pending greater coverage of storms. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed across portions of eastern MT over the past few hours along a diffuse boundary, with particularly robust development noted on the Prairie/Custer County, MT line. Clusters of high-based thunderstorms have also developed over the higher terrain, and will drift eastward with dry downburst potential. Ahead of the east MT storms, 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 25 kts of effective bulk shear are in place. Should these storm sustain themselves, multicells and perhaps supercells will be the dominant storm modes, accompanied by a risk of severe wind and hail. Given modest forcing for ascent, it is unclear how widespread storms will become ahead of a diffuse boundary. Should a larger number of storms develop and mature, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 46600943 46930873 47250780 47730631 48270523 48700428 48870363 48770296 48050245 47170209 46240222 45460318 45230527 45150655 45240767 45420816 45890910 46600943 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1778 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1778 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 252009Z - 252215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts and a few brief tornadoes are possible this afternoon across parts of eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri. A watch may be needed. DISCUSSION...An MCV is currently situated over north central Kansas, with an outflow/differential heating boundary across parts of southeastern Kansas. Due to daytime heating, particularly south of the boundary, along with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s F, inhibition has been removed across the region. There is some enhanced flow aloft round the MCV, which has provided ~30 kts of effective bulk shear. Low-level shear is generally fairly weak, though there is some enhancement in the weak easterly flow north of the differential heating boundary. Given modest deep-layer shear, multicell clusters with transient supercells are possible through the afternoon, and any supercells would carry a risk of a brief tornado, particularly where low-level shear is locally enhanced. However, overall weak low-level flow and poor lapse rates may limit the tornado threat. In addition, the atmosphere is quite moist, and the water loading in downdrafts may lead to a risk for damaging gusts as cell cluster with time. Trends are being monitored for a possible watch. ..Supinie/Guyer.. 07/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 38229493 37879563 37489607 37639661 37839679 38399686 39359647 39849562 40099458 40199385 40069334 39089302 38539392 38229493 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 1779 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 542... FOR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...LONG ISLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1779 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Areas affected...eastern Pennsylvania...New Jersey...Long Island Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 542... Valid 252029Z - 252200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 542 continues. SUMMARY...Potential for localized severe gusts remains across the watch area. DISCUSSION...Cluster of storms currently extend from coastal MA/RI across Long Island and into eastern PA, with generally fast movement to the southeast. A few storms have clearly reached severe levels, with a 55 kt gust recently measured at Newark Airport. Additional severe gusts may occur across the remainder of the warm sector over land from southeast PA into much of NJ and across parts of Long Island. Little to no additional severe storms are expected behind the initial activity as due to drying aloft. ..Jewell.. 07/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP... LAT...LON 41067184 40707207 40187270 39587360 39257442 39287450 39437492 39747571 40047601 40297587 40517547 40657487 40777384 41207223 41217192 41067184 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... A subtropical ridge will begin to expand over much of the central and southern CONUS into early next week, while troughing continues over the Pacific. Deepening south-southwesterly flow will accompany this pattern from southern CA into the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin through at least mid week. ...D3/Sunday... A couple of mid-level perturbations will continue to impact the northern Sierra, northern Great Basin, and portions of the Pacific Northwest. Ascent and moisture associated with these features, in addition to orographic lift, will likely support low shower and thunderstorm chances across these regions. A low probability area for dry thunderstorms was considered mainly for the northern Sierra and southern OR east of the Cascades, but will not be introduced into the forecast at this time given a lack of confidence in lower PWAT values. Localized hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest, Great Basin, and portions of the central Rockies. However, lower overall wind speeds preclude the need for any low critical probability areas for the time being. ...D4/Monday-D7/Thursday... Chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue into at least D7/Thursday from northern CA, into the Pacific Northwest, and northern Rockies downstream of a persistent Pacific trough. A slow increase in low to mid-level moisture each day should limit the opportunity for dry lightning strikes, although an initial threat of this may exist early in the week. ..Barnes.. 07/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... A subtropical ridge will begin to expand over much of the central and southern CONUS into early next week, while troughing continues over the Pacific. Deepening south-southwesterly flow will accompany this pattern from southern CA into the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin through at least mid week. ...D3/Sunday... A couple of mid-level perturbations will continue to impact the northern Sierra, northern Great Basin, and portions of the Pacific Northwest. Ascent and moisture associated with these features, in addition to orographic lift, will likely support low shower and thunderstorm chances across these regions. A low probability area for dry thunderstorms was considered mainly for the northern Sierra and southern OR east of the Cascades, but will not be introduced into the forecast at this time given a lack of confidence in lower PWAT values. Localized hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest, Great Basin, and portions of the central Rockies. However, lower overall wind speeds preclude the need for any low critical probability areas for the time being. ...D4/Monday-D7/Thursday... Chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue into at least D7/Thursday from northern CA, into the Pacific Northwest, and northern Rockies downstream of a persistent Pacific trough. A slow increase in low to mid-level moisture each day should limit the opportunity for dry lightning strikes, although an initial threat of this may exist early in the week. ..Barnes.. 07/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... A subtropical ridge will begin to expand over much of the central and southern CONUS into early next week, while troughing continues over the Pacific. Deepening south-southwesterly flow will accompany this pattern from southern CA into the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin through at least mid week. ...D3/Sunday... A couple of mid-level perturbations will continue to impact the northern Sierra, northern Great Basin, and portions of the Pacific Northwest. Ascent and moisture associated with these features, in addition to orographic lift, will likely support low shower and thunderstorm chances across these regions. A low probability area for dry thunderstorms was considered mainly for the northern Sierra and southern OR east of the Cascades, but will not be introduced into the forecast at this time given a lack of confidence in lower PWAT values. Localized hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest, Great Basin, and portions of the central Rockies. However, lower overall wind speeds preclude the need for any low critical probability areas for the time being. ...D4/Monday-D7/Thursday... Chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue into at least D7/Thursday from northern CA, into the Pacific Northwest, and northern Rockies downstream of a persistent Pacific trough. A slow increase in low to mid-level moisture each day should limit the opportunity for dry lightning strikes, although an initial threat of this may exist early in the week. ..Barnes.. 07/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... A subtropical ridge will begin to expand over much of the central and southern CONUS into early next week, while troughing continues over the Pacific. Deepening south-southwesterly flow will accompany this pattern from southern CA into the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin through at least mid week. ...D3/Sunday... A couple of mid-level perturbations will continue to impact the northern Sierra, northern Great Basin, and portions of the Pacific Northwest. Ascent and moisture associated with these features, in addition to orographic lift, will likely support low shower and thunderstorm chances across these regions. A low probability area for dry thunderstorms was considered mainly for the northern Sierra and southern OR east of the Cascades, but will not be introduced into the forecast at this time given a lack of confidence in lower PWAT values. Localized hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest, Great Basin, and portions of the central Rockies. However, lower overall wind speeds preclude the need for any low critical probability areas for the time being. ...D4/Monday-D7/Thursday... Chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue into at least D7/Thursday from northern CA, into the Pacific Northwest, and northern Rockies downstream of a persistent Pacific trough. A slow increase in low to mid-level moisture each day should limit the opportunity for dry lightning strikes, although an initial threat of this may exist early in the week. ..Barnes.. 07/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... A subtropical ridge will begin to expand over much of the central and southern CONUS into early next week, while troughing continues over the Pacific. Deepening south-southwesterly flow will accompany this pattern from southern CA into the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin through at least mid week. ...D3/Sunday... A couple of mid-level perturbations will continue to impact the northern Sierra, northern Great Basin, and portions of the Pacific Northwest. Ascent and moisture associated with these features, in addition to orographic lift, will likely support low shower and thunderstorm chances across these regions. A low probability area for dry thunderstorms was considered mainly for the northern Sierra and southern OR east of the Cascades, but will not be introduced into the forecast at this time given a lack of confidence in lower PWAT values. Localized hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest, Great Basin, and portions of the central Rockies. However, lower overall wind speeds preclude the need for any low critical probability areas for the time being. ...D4/Monday-D7/Thursday... Chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue into at least D7/Thursday from northern CA, into the Pacific Northwest, and northern Rockies downstream of a persistent Pacific trough. A slow increase in low to mid-level moisture each day should limit the opportunity for dry lightning strikes, although an initial threat of this may exist early in the week. ..Barnes.. 07/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... A subtropical ridge will begin to expand over much of the central and southern CONUS into early next week, while troughing continues over the Pacific. Deepening south-southwesterly flow will accompany this pattern from southern CA into the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin through at least mid week. ...D3/Sunday... A couple of mid-level perturbations will continue to impact the northern Sierra, northern Great Basin, and portions of the Pacific Northwest. Ascent and moisture associated with these features, in addition to orographic lift, will likely support low shower and thunderstorm chances across these regions. A low probability area for dry thunderstorms was considered mainly for the northern Sierra and southern OR east of the Cascades, but will not be introduced into the forecast at this time given a lack of confidence in lower PWAT values. Localized hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest, Great Basin, and portions of the central Rockies. However, lower overall wind speeds preclude the need for any low critical probability areas for the time being. ...D4/Monday-D7/Thursday... Chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue into at least D7/Thursday from northern CA, into the Pacific Northwest, and northern Rockies downstream of a persistent Pacific trough. A slow increase in low to mid-level moisture each day should limit the opportunity for dry lightning strikes, although an initial threat of this may exist early in the week. ..Barnes.. 07/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more