Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon through tonight in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...Northern Plains... Ahead of an upper low over northern California/western Nevada, midday water vapor imagery reflects a lead shortwave trough moving northeastward over northern Utah/eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. In this regime, forcing for ascent and gradual cooling aloft will occur through late today over northern Wyoming and southern/eastern Montana. Northerly/upslope surface winds, combined with strong heating and moderate CAPE values, will promote the development of scattered high-based gusty thunderstorms by late afternoon. This will initially occur across southern Montana and toward the Big Horns/northeast Wyoming. Additional high-based storm development is expected near the surface low and southward-extending surface trough into the central High Plains. Storms that move into the western Dakotas will encounter progressively higher CAPE and likely grow upscale through the evening with a greater risk of organized severe winds, aside from some continued hail potential. As least some late-night severe risk will probably persist across North Dakota/eastern South Dakota into Minnesota. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva... Multiple clusters of have persisted and/or reinvigorated early today in a corridor spanning north-central Illinois/northern Indiana, as well as central Pennsylvania. Moist/humid conditions will exist south of the convectively reinforced boundary and away from areas of persistent cloud debris (such as northward into Lower Michigan), with a reservoir of ample buoyancy contributing to a diurnal intensification of storms as multiple convectively enhanced mid-level disturbances interface with the effective front and nearby warm sector. The strongest storms will be capable of damaging winds, and a somewhat more favorable corridor for severe thunderstorms/wind damage appears to exist across the Mid-Atlantic States including south/southeast parts of Pennsylvania toward the Delmarva/Chesapeake Bay. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon through tonight in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...Northern Plains... Ahead of an upper low over northern California/western Nevada, midday water vapor imagery reflects a lead shortwave trough moving northeastward over northern Utah/eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. In this regime, forcing for ascent and gradual cooling aloft will occur through late today over northern Wyoming and southern/eastern Montana. Northerly/upslope surface winds, combined with strong heating and moderate CAPE values, will promote the development of scattered high-based gusty thunderstorms by late afternoon. This will initially occur across southern Montana and toward the Big Horns/northeast Wyoming. Additional high-based storm development is expected near the surface low and southward-extending surface trough into the central High Plains. Storms that move into the western Dakotas will encounter progressively higher CAPE and likely grow upscale through the evening with a greater risk of organized severe winds, aside from some continued hail potential. As least some late-night severe risk will probably persist across North Dakota/eastern South Dakota into Minnesota. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva... Multiple clusters of have persisted and/or reinvigorated early today in a corridor spanning north-central Illinois/northern Indiana, as well as central Pennsylvania. Moist/humid conditions will exist south of the convectively reinforced boundary and away from areas of persistent cloud debris (such as northward into Lower Michigan), with a reservoir of ample buoyancy contributing to a diurnal intensification of storms as multiple convectively enhanced mid-level disturbances interface with the effective front and nearby warm sector. The strongest storms will be capable of damaging winds, and a somewhat more favorable corridor for severe thunderstorms/wind damage appears to exist across the Mid-Atlantic States including south/southeast parts of Pennsylvania toward the Delmarva/Chesapeake Bay. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts will be possible this afternoon through tonight in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...Northern Plains... Current water vapor loop shows a well-defined shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max over parts of UT. As this feature tracks northeastward today, large-scale lift and subtle cooling aloft will overspread parts of northeast WY and central/eastern MT. Northerly/upslope surface winds, combined with strong heating and moderate CAPE values, will promote the development of scattered high-based gusty thunderstorms by late afternoon. Storms that move into western SD will encounter progressively higher CAPE and likely grow upscale through the evening with a greater risk of organized severe winds. Latest model guidance suggests some potential for this activity to persist deep into the night and spread across eastern ND and parts of northern MN. Damaging winds will remain the main concern, along with some risk of hail and a tornado or two. ...Midwest into Mid-Atlantic Region... A large cluster of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning across parts of IA/IL. The associated outflow boundaries and clouds will result in an effective baroclinic zone today from northern MO/IL into southern Lower MI. Along and south of this boundary, hot/humid conditions will lead to large CAPE values. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected, with the strongest cells capable of gusty/damaging winds. This regime will extend eastward into parts of PA and the Chesapeake Bay area with a few strong afternoon thunderstorms possible. ..Hart/Grams.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts will be possible this afternoon through tonight in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...Northern Plains... Current water vapor loop shows a well-defined shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max over parts of UT. As this feature tracks northeastward today, large-scale lift and subtle cooling aloft will overspread parts of northeast WY and central/eastern MT. Northerly/upslope surface winds, combined with strong heating and moderate CAPE values, will promote the development of scattered high-based gusty thunderstorms by late afternoon. Storms that move into western SD will encounter progressively higher CAPE and likely grow upscale through the evening with a greater risk of organized severe winds. Latest model guidance suggests some potential for this activity to persist deep into the night and spread across eastern ND and parts of northern MN. Damaging winds will remain the main concern, along with some risk of hail and a tornado or two. ...Midwest into Mid-Atlantic Region... A large cluster of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning across parts of IA/IL. The associated outflow boundaries and clouds will result in an effective baroclinic zone today from northern MO/IL into southern Lower MI. Along and south of this boundary, hot/humid conditions will lead to large CAPE values. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected, with the strongest cells capable of gusty/damaging winds. This regime will extend eastward into parts of PA and the Chesapeake Bay area with a few strong afternoon thunderstorms possible. ..Hart/Grams.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts will be possible this afternoon through tonight in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...Northern Plains... Current water vapor loop shows a well-defined shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max over parts of UT. As this feature tracks northeastward today, large-scale lift and subtle cooling aloft will overspread parts of northeast WY and central/eastern MT. Northerly/upslope surface winds, combined with strong heating and moderate CAPE values, will promote the development of scattered high-based gusty thunderstorms by late afternoon. Storms that move into western SD will encounter progressively higher CAPE and likely grow upscale through the evening with a greater risk of organized severe winds. Latest model guidance suggests some potential for this activity to persist deep into the night and spread across eastern ND and parts of northern MN. Damaging winds will remain the main concern, along with some risk of hail and a tornado or two. ...Midwest into Mid-Atlantic Region... A large cluster of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning across parts of IA/IL. The associated outflow boundaries and clouds will result in an effective baroclinic zone today from northern MO/IL into southern Lower MI. Along and south of this boundary, hot/humid conditions will lead to large CAPE values. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected, with the strongest cells capable of gusty/damaging winds. This regime will extend eastward into parts of PA and the Chesapeake Bay area with a few strong afternoon thunderstorms possible. ..Hart/Grams.. 07/26/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper-level pattern over the next week will generally feature an elongated upper ridge centered over the Southeast stretching into the Northwest. In the Northeast and nearby vicinity, upper-level cyclonic flow will be present. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will accompany that trough. Along the West Coast, a lower amplitude shortwave trough will slowly move northward along the coast. As the Northeast trough continues to shift east into late next week and the weekend, the surface cold front will continue to be pushed southward. Thunderstorms are likely to occur along and near this boundary given the hot and moist airmass to its south. While some severe risk could accompany this activity, stronger mid-level flow will become displaced farther and farther northward from the boundary each day. This leads to uncertainty in the overall magnitude of the severe threat from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-South/Southeast. Additional storms, with some severe potential could occur in parts of the Northwest with the approach of greater mid-level moisture and the trough. Again, the placement and intensity of this activity is uncertain. Even with a decrease in low-level moisture behind the surface front, remaining moisture will be pushing into the terrain of the northern Rockies. Along with some mid-level flow enhancement, strong to severe storms would be possible. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper-level pattern over the next week will generally feature an elongated upper ridge centered over the Southeast stretching into the Northwest. In the Northeast and nearby vicinity, upper-level cyclonic flow will be present. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will accompany that trough. Along the West Coast, a lower amplitude shortwave trough will slowly move northward along the coast. As the Northeast trough continues to shift east into late next week and the weekend, the surface cold front will continue to be pushed southward. Thunderstorms are likely to occur along and near this boundary given the hot and moist airmass to its south. While some severe risk could accompany this activity, stronger mid-level flow will become displaced farther and farther northward from the boundary each day. This leads to uncertainty in the overall magnitude of the severe threat from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-South/Southeast. Additional storms, with some severe potential could occur in parts of the Northwest with the approach of greater mid-level moisture and the trough. Again, the placement and intensity of this activity is uncertain. Even with a decrease in low-level moisture behind the surface front, remaining moisture will be pushing into the terrain of the northern Rockies. Along with some mid-level flow enhancement, strong to severe storms would be possible. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper-level pattern over the next week will generally feature an elongated upper ridge centered over the Southeast stretching into the Northwest. In the Northeast and nearby vicinity, upper-level cyclonic flow will be present. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will accompany that trough. Along the West Coast, a lower amplitude shortwave trough will slowly move northward along the coast. As the Northeast trough continues to shift east into late next week and the weekend, the surface cold front will continue to be pushed southward. Thunderstorms are likely to occur along and near this boundary given the hot and moist airmass to its south. While some severe risk could accompany this activity, stronger mid-level flow will become displaced farther and farther northward from the boundary each day. This leads to uncertainty in the overall magnitude of the severe threat from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-South/Southeast. Additional storms, with some severe potential could occur in parts of the Northwest with the approach of greater mid-level moisture and the trough. Again, the placement and intensity of this activity is uncertain. Even with a decrease in low-level moisture behind the surface front, remaining moisture will be pushing into the terrain of the northern Rockies. Along with some mid-level flow enhancement, strong to severe storms would be possible. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper-level pattern over the next week will generally feature an elongated upper ridge centered over the Southeast stretching into the Northwest. In the Northeast and nearby vicinity, upper-level cyclonic flow will be present. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will accompany that trough. Along the West Coast, a lower amplitude shortwave trough will slowly move northward along the coast. As the Northeast trough continues to shift east into late next week and the weekend, the surface cold front will continue to be pushed southward. Thunderstorms are likely to occur along and near this boundary given the hot and moist airmass to its south. While some severe risk could accompany this activity, stronger mid-level flow will become displaced farther and farther northward from the boundary each day. This leads to uncertainty in the overall magnitude of the severe threat from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-South/Southeast. Additional storms, with some severe potential could occur in parts of the Northwest with the approach of greater mid-level moisture and the trough. Again, the placement and intensity of this activity is uncertain. Even with a decrease in low-level moisture behind the surface front, remaining moisture will be pushing into the terrain of the northern Rockies. Along with some mid-level flow enhancement, strong to severe storms would be possible. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper-level pattern over the next week will generally feature an elongated upper ridge centered over the Southeast stretching into the Northwest. In the Northeast and nearby vicinity, upper-level cyclonic flow will be present. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will accompany that trough. Along the West Coast, a lower amplitude shortwave trough will slowly move northward along the coast. As the Northeast trough continues to shift east into late next week and the weekend, the surface cold front will continue to be pushed southward. Thunderstorms are likely to occur along and near this boundary given the hot and moist airmass to its south. While some severe risk could accompany this activity, stronger mid-level flow will become displaced farther and farther northward from the boundary each day. This leads to uncertainty in the overall magnitude of the severe threat from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-South/Southeast. Additional storms, with some severe potential could occur in parts of the Northwest with the approach of greater mid-level moisture and the trough. Again, the placement and intensity of this activity is uncertain. Even with a decrease in low-level moisture behind the surface front, remaining moisture will be pushing into the terrain of the northern Rockies. Along with some mid-level flow enhancement, strong to severe storms would be possible. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA...PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Rockies into Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the central and southern CONUS on Monday. As this ridge amplifies into the Northwest, stronger mid-level winds will develop in the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A surface low will modestly deepen and become more well-defined in the central Plains. The intensification of the upper trough will help to push a modest surface cold front southward into Tuesday morning. A pseudo warm front will be attendant to the low and extend southeastward through southern Minnesota into northern Illinois. A very moist airmass will be in place south of this boundary. Farther west, modest low-level moisture will be pushed into the Northern Rockies. A zone of stronger mid-level winds will stretch from the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. Convection is likely over the terrain. ...South Dakota into the Upper Midwest... Convective development during the afternoon will be possible from the Black Hills and eastward where the surface low will intersect the cold front. Given continued warm temperatures aloft and uncertain mid-level forcing, it is not clear where the favored corridor for development will be. The stronger surface low and modest westerlies aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear near the boundary. Once again, strong to extreme buoyancy is possible. Given the temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface and the boundary-parallel shear, upscale growth would likely be quick. An MCS could then develop and progress along the boundary. By the evening, the cold front should begin to move south and a modest low-level jet will increase, directed into the boundary. Greater coverage of storms would then be possible where MLCIN remains weak. This is another scenario where higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed as uncertainty decreases. ...Montana... Though moisture will be somewhat modest (perhaps dewpoints in the 50s F), it should be sufficient at this elevation for storm development over the terrain. Low-level easterlies and modest westerlies aloft will similarly bring 40-50 kts of effective shear. Lack of greater moisture will likely limit how intense storms will be, but a cluster or two could produce severe wind gusts and large hail. ..Wendt.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA...PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Rockies into Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the central and southern CONUS on Monday. As this ridge amplifies into the Northwest, stronger mid-level winds will develop in the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A surface low will modestly deepen and become more well-defined in the central Plains. The intensification of the upper trough will help to push a modest surface cold front southward into Tuesday morning. A pseudo warm front will be attendant to the low and extend southeastward through southern Minnesota into northern Illinois. A very moist airmass will be in place south of this boundary. Farther west, modest low-level moisture will be pushed into the Northern Rockies. A zone of stronger mid-level winds will stretch from the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. Convection is likely over the terrain. ...South Dakota into the Upper Midwest... Convective development during the afternoon will be possible from the Black Hills and eastward where the surface low will intersect the cold front. Given continued warm temperatures aloft and uncertain mid-level forcing, it is not clear where the favored corridor for development will be. The stronger surface low and modest westerlies aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear near the boundary. Once again, strong to extreme buoyancy is possible. Given the temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface and the boundary-parallel shear, upscale growth would likely be quick. An MCS could then develop and progress along the boundary. By the evening, the cold front should begin to move south and a modest low-level jet will increase, directed into the boundary. Greater coverage of storms would then be possible where MLCIN remains weak. This is another scenario where higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed as uncertainty decreases. ...Montana... Though moisture will be somewhat modest (perhaps dewpoints in the 50s F), it should be sufficient at this elevation for storm development over the terrain. Low-level easterlies and modest westerlies aloft will similarly bring 40-50 kts of effective shear. Lack of greater moisture will likely limit how intense storms will be, but a cluster or two could produce severe wind gusts and large hail. ..Wendt.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA...PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Rockies into Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the central and southern CONUS on Monday. As this ridge amplifies into the Northwest, stronger mid-level winds will develop in the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A surface low will modestly deepen and become more well-defined in the central Plains. The intensification of the upper trough will help to push a modest surface cold front southward into Tuesday morning. A pseudo warm front will be attendant to the low and extend southeastward through southern Minnesota into northern Illinois. A very moist airmass will be in place south of this boundary. Farther west, modest low-level moisture will be pushed into the Northern Rockies. A zone of stronger mid-level winds will stretch from the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. Convection is likely over the terrain. ...South Dakota into the Upper Midwest... Convective development during the afternoon will be possible from the Black Hills and eastward where the surface low will intersect the cold front. Given continued warm temperatures aloft and uncertain mid-level forcing, it is not clear where the favored corridor for development will be. The stronger surface low and modest westerlies aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear near the boundary. Once again, strong to extreme buoyancy is possible. Given the temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface and the boundary-parallel shear, upscale growth would likely be quick. An MCS could then develop and progress along the boundary. By the evening, the cold front should begin to move south and a modest low-level jet will increase, directed into the boundary. Greater coverage of storms would then be possible where MLCIN remains weak. This is another scenario where higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed as uncertainty decreases. ...Montana... Though moisture will be somewhat modest (perhaps dewpoints in the 50s F), it should be sufficient at this elevation for storm development over the terrain. Low-level easterlies and modest westerlies aloft will similarly bring 40-50 kts of effective shear. Lack of greater moisture will likely limit how intense storms will be, but a cluster or two could produce severe wind gusts and large hail. ..Wendt.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA...PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Rockies into Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the central and southern CONUS on Monday. As this ridge amplifies into the Northwest, stronger mid-level winds will develop in the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A surface low will modestly deepen and become more well-defined in the central Plains. The intensification of the upper trough will help to push a modest surface cold front southward into Tuesday morning. A pseudo warm front will be attendant to the low and extend southeastward through southern Minnesota into northern Illinois. A very moist airmass will be in place south of this boundary. Farther west, modest low-level moisture will be pushed into the Northern Rockies. A zone of stronger mid-level winds will stretch from the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. Convection is likely over the terrain. ...South Dakota into the Upper Midwest... Convective development during the afternoon will be possible from the Black Hills and eastward where the surface low will intersect the cold front. Given continued warm temperatures aloft and uncertain mid-level forcing, it is not clear where the favored corridor for development will be. The stronger surface low and modest westerlies aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear near the boundary. Once again, strong to extreme buoyancy is possible. Given the temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface and the boundary-parallel shear, upscale growth would likely be quick. An MCS could then develop and progress along the boundary. By the evening, the cold front should begin to move south and a modest low-level jet will increase, directed into the boundary. Greater coverage of storms would then be possible where MLCIN remains weak. This is another scenario where higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed as uncertainty decreases. ...Montana... Though moisture will be somewhat modest (perhaps dewpoints in the 50s F), it should be sufficient at this elevation for storm development over the terrain. Low-level easterlies and modest westerlies aloft will similarly bring 40-50 kts of effective shear. Lack of greater moisture will likely limit how intense storms will be, but a cluster or two could produce severe wind gusts and large hail. ..Wendt.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA...PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Rockies into Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the central and southern CONUS on Monday. As this ridge amplifies into the Northwest, stronger mid-level winds will develop in the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A surface low will modestly deepen and become more well-defined in the central Plains. The intensification of the upper trough will help to push a modest surface cold front southward into Tuesday morning. A pseudo warm front will be attendant to the low and extend southeastward through southern Minnesota into northern Illinois. A very moist airmass will be in place south of this boundary. Farther west, modest low-level moisture will be pushed into the Northern Rockies. A zone of stronger mid-level winds will stretch from the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. Convection is likely over the terrain. ...South Dakota into the Upper Midwest... Convective development during the afternoon will be possible from the Black Hills and eastward where the surface low will intersect the cold front. Given continued warm temperatures aloft and uncertain mid-level forcing, it is not clear where the favored corridor for development will be. The stronger surface low and modest westerlies aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear near the boundary. Once again, strong to extreme buoyancy is possible. Given the temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface and the boundary-parallel shear, upscale growth would likely be quick. An MCS could then develop and progress along the boundary. By the evening, the cold front should begin to move south and a modest low-level jet will increase, directed into the boundary. Greater coverage of storms would then be possible where MLCIN remains weak. This is another scenario where higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed as uncertainty decreases. ...Montana... Though moisture will be somewhat modest (perhaps dewpoints in the 50s F), it should be sufficient at this elevation for storm development over the terrain. Low-level easterlies and modest westerlies aloft will similarly bring 40-50 kts of effective shear. Lack of greater moisture will likely limit how intense storms will be, but a cluster or two could produce severe wind gusts and large hail. ..Wendt.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA...PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Rockies into Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the central and southern CONUS on Monday. As this ridge amplifies into the Northwest, stronger mid-level winds will develop in the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A surface low will modestly deepen and become more well-defined in the central Plains. The intensification of the upper trough will help to push a modest surface cold front southward into Tuesday morning. A pseudo warm front will be attendant to the low and extend southeastward through southern Minnesota into northern Illinois. A very moist airmass will be in place south of this boundary. Farther west, modest low-level moisture will be pushed into the Northern Rockies. A zone of stronger mid-level winds will stretch from the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. Convection is likely over the terrain. ...South Dakota into the Upper Midwest... Convective development during the afternoon will be possible from the Black Hills and eastward where the surface low will intersect the cold front. Given continued warm temperatures aloft and uncertain mid-level forcing, it is not clear where the favored corridor for development will be. The stronger surface low and modest westerlies aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear near the boundary. Once again, strong to extreme buoyancy is possible. Given the temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface and the boundary-parallel shear, upscale growth would likely be quick. An MCS could then develop and progress along the boundary. By the evening, the cold front should begin to move south and a modest low-level jet will increase, directed into the boundary. Greater coverage of storms would then be possible where MLCIN remains weak. This is another scenario where higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed as uncertainty decreases. ...Montana... Though moisture will be somewhat modest (perhaps dewpoints in the 50s F), it should be sufficient at this elevation for storm development over the terrain. Low-level easterlies and modest westerlies aloft will similarly bring 40-50 kts of effective shear. Lack of greater moisture will likely limit how intense storms will be, but a cluster or two could produce severe wind gusts and large hail. ..Wendt.. 07/26/2025 Read more

MD 1789 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN ND AND FAR NORTHWEST MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1789 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Areas affected...eastern ND and far northwest MN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 260649Z - 260815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A swath of strong to severe gusts may occur across a portion of eastern North Dakota into far northwest Minnesota before dawn. With the threat area likely to be confined, a watch is not currently planned. But it could be considered if greater intensification/organization becomes evident. DISCUSSION...A small cluster from Eddy to Stutsman Counties in east-central ND may be maintained to the east-northeast towards a portion of the Red River Valley before dawn. This cluster has evolved into a more north/south-orientation with recent convective development along its southern flank. This is nearly perpendicular to the deep-layer shear vector and enhanced 2-7 km AGL westerlies sampled in recent BIS VWP data. NDAWN observations confirm a 10-13 F temperature gradient within the small cold pool and unperturbed warm sector ahead of the outflow. This setup may yield a swath of strong to severe gusts in a focused corridor over the next 2-3 hours. ..Grams/Hart.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 48349676 47999645 47569630 47219653 47059736 46979885 47269910 47809905 48139794 48349676 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Upper troughing will persist along the West Coast as the upper ridge continues to build over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Sunday). Mid-level moisture along the upper trough will overspread a dry boundary layer, characterized by inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings). As such, a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms is anticipated during the afternoon and evening hours across portions of the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies. Given dry fuels over the region and associated potential for lightning induced ignitions, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Upper troughing will persist along the West Coast as the upper ridge continues to build over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Sunday). Mid-level moisture along the upper trough will overspread a dry boundary layer, characterized by inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings). As such, a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms is anticipated during the afternoon and evening hours across portions of the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies. Given dry fuels over the region and associated potential for lightning induced ignitions, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Upper troughing will persist along the West Coast as the upper ridge continues to build over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Sunday). Mid-level moisture along the upper trough will overspread a dry boundary layer, characterized by inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings). As such, a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms is anticipated during the afternoon and evening hours across portions of the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies. Given dry fuels over the region and associated potential for lightning induced ignitions, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more