Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon through tonight in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. The Marginal risk was expanded slightly eastward in northern MN, where an ongoing cluster of storms (preceding a remnant MCV) may pose a risk of strong/severe gusts through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe risks in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, reference MCDs 1790/1791. ..Weinman.. 07/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025/ ...Northern Plains... Ahead of an upper low over northern California/western Nevada, midday water vapor imagery reflects a lead shortwave trough moving northeastward over northern Utah/eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. In this regime, forcing for ascent and gradual cooling aloft will occur through late today over northern Wyoming and southern/eastern Montana. Northerly/upslope surface winds, combined with strong heating and moderate CAPE values, will promote the development of scattered high-based gusty thunderstorms by late afternoon. This will initially occur across southern Montana and toward the Big Horns/northeast Wyoming. Additional high-based storm development is expected near the surface low and southward-extending surface trough into the central High Plains. Storms that move into the western Dakotas will encounter progressively higher CAPE and likely grow upscale through the evening with a greater risk of organized severe winds, aside from some continued hail potential. As least some late-night severe risk will probably persist across North Dakota/eastern South Dakota into Minnesota. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva... Multiple clusters of have persisted and/or reinvigorated early today in a corridor spanning north-central Illinois/northern Indiana, as well as central Pennsylvania. Moist/humid conditions will exist south of the convectively reinforced boundary and away from areas of persistent cloud debris (such as northward into Lower Michigan), with a reservoir of ample buoyancy contributing to a diurnal intensification of storms as multiple convectively enhanced mid-level disturbances interface with the effective front and nearby warm sector. The strongest storms will be capable of damaging winds, and a somewhat more favorable corridor for severe thunderstorms/wind damage appears to exist across the Mid-Atlantic States including south/southeast parts of Pennsylvania toward the Delmarva/Chesapeake Bay. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon through tonight in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. The Marginal risk was expanded slightly eastward in northern MN, where an ongoing cluster of storms (preceding a remnant MCV) may pose a risk of strong/severe gusts through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe risks in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, reference MCDs 1790/1791. ..Weinman.. 07/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025/ ...Northern Plains... Ahead of an upper low over northern California/western Nevada, midday water vapor imagery reflects a lead shortwave trough moving northeastward over northern Utah/eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. In this regime, forcing for ascent and gradual cooling aloft will occur through late today over northern Wyoming and southern/eastern Montana. Northerly/upslope surface winds, combined with strong heating and moderate CAPE values, will promote the development of scattered high-based gusty thunderstorms by late afternoon. This will initially occur across southern Montana and toward the Big Horns/northeast Wyoming. Additional high-based storm development is expected near the surface low and southward-extending surface trough into the central High Plains. Storms that move into the western Dakotas will encounter progressively higher CAPE and likely grow upscale through the evening with a greater risk of organized severe winds, aside from some continued hail potential. As least some late-night severe risk will probably persist across North Dakota/eastern South Dakota into Minnesota. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva... Multiple clusters of have persisted and/or reinvigorated early today in a corridor spanning north-central Illinois/northern Indiana, as well as central Pennsylvania. Moist/humid conditions will exist south of the convectively reinforced boundary and away from areas of persistent cloud debris (such as northward into Lower Michigan), with a reservoir of ample buoyancy contributing to a diurnal intensification of storms as multiple convectively enhanced mid-level disturbances interface with the effective front and nearby warm sector. The strongest storms will be capable of damaging winds, and a somewhat more favorable corridor for severe thunderstorms/wind damage appears to exist across the Mid-Atlantic States including south/southeast parts of Pennsylvania toward the Delmarva/Chesapeake Bay. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon through tonight in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. The Marginal risk was expanded slightly eastward in northern MN, where an ongoing cluster of storms (preceding a remnant MCV) may pose a risk of strong/severe gusts through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe risks in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, reference MCDs 1790/1791. ..Weinman.. 07/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025/ ...Northern Plains... Ahead of an upper low over northern California/western Nevada, midday water vapor imagery reflects a lead shortwave trough moving northeastward over northern Utah/eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. In this regime, forcing for ascent and gradual cooling aloft will occur through late today over northern Wyoming and southern/eastern Montana. Northerly/upslope surface winds, combined with strong heating and moderate CAPE values, will promote the development of scattered high-based gusty thunderstorms by late afternoon. This will initially occur across southern Montana and toward the Big Horns/northeast Wyoming. Additional high-based storm development is expected near the surface low and southward-extending surface trough into the central High Plains. Storms that move into the western Dakotas will encounter progressively higher CAPE and likely grow upscale through the evening with a greater risk of organized severe winds, aside from some continued hail potential. As least some late-night severe risk will probably persist across North Dakota/eastern South Dakota into Minnesota. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva... Multiple clusters of have persisted and/or reinvigorated early today in a corridor spanning north-central Illinois/northern Indiana, as well as central Pennsylvania. Moist/humid conditions will exist south of the convectively reinforced boundary and away from areas of persistent cloud debris (such as northward into Lower Michigan), with a reservoir of ample buoyancy contributing to a diurnal intensification of storms as multiple convectively enhanced mid-level disturbances interface with the effective front and nearby warm sector. The strongest storms will be capable of damaging winds, and a somewhat more favorable corridor for severe thunderstorms/wind damage appears to exist across the Mid-Atlantic States including south/southeast parts of Pennsylvania toward the Delmarva/Chesapeake Bay. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon through tonight in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. The Marginal risk was expanded slightly eastward in northern MN, where an ongoing cluster of storms (preceding a remnant MCV) may pose a risk of strong/severe gusts through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe risks in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, reference MCDs 1790/1791. ..Weinman.. 07/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025/ ...Northern Plains... Ahead of an upper low over northern California/western Nevada, midday water vapor imagery reflects a lead shortwave trough moving northeastward over northern Utah/eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. In this regime, forcing for ascent and gradual cooling aloft will occur through late today over northern Wyoming and southern/eastern Montana. Northerly/upslope surface winds, combined with strong heating and moderate CAPE values, will promote the development of scattered high-based gusty thunderstorms by late afternoon. This will initially occur across southern Montana and toward the Big Horns/northeast Wyoming. Additional high-based storm development is expected near the surface low and southward-extending surface trough into the central High Plains. Storms that move into the western Dakotas will encounter progressively higher CAPE and likely grow upscale through the evening with a greater risk of organized severe winds, aside from some continued hail potential. As least some late-night severe risk will probably persist across North Dakota/eastern South Dakota into Minnesota. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva... Multiple clusters of have persisted and/or reinvigorated early today in a corridor spanning north-central Illinois/northern Indiana, as well as central Pennsylvania. Moist/humid conditions will exist south of the convectively reinforced boundary and away from areas of persistent cloud debris (such as northward into Lower Michigan), with a reservoir of ample buoyancy contributing to a diurnal intensification of storms as multiple convectively enhanced mid-level disturbances interface with the effective front and nearby warm sector. The strongest storms will be capable of damaging winds, and a somewhat more favorable corridor for severe thunderstorms/wind damage appears to exist across the Mid-Atlantic States including south/southeast parts of Pennsylvania toward the Delmarva/Chesapeake Bay. Read more

MD 1791 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR EASTERN MISSOURI...CENTRAL ILLINOIS...FAR WESTERN INDIANA.
Mesoscale Discussion 1791 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Areas affected...far eastern Missouri...central Illinois...far western Indiana. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 261821Z - 262015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Marginal risk for strong to severe wind through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity across portions of eastern Missouri into central Illinois and western Indiana is expected to increase in coverage this afternoon near multiple remnant MCVs and remnant outflow. Pockets of enhanced flow/modest shear along with daytime heating has allowed for the air mass to become favorable unstable and supportive of at least an isolated risk for a stronger storm or two capable of strong to severe wind. Given the generally weak forcing and modest shear for organization, this threat is likely to remain too localized for watch issuance. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... LAT...LON 39409207 40029144 40599049 40968924 41098823 41168706 40458663 39978711 38339061 38519193 39409207 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 1790 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...MUCH OF MARYLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1790 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Areas affected...south-central Pennsylvania...much of Maryland Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 261751Z - 262015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe wind gusts are forecast to develop through the afternoon, from southern Pennsylvania into Maryland. Expected severe coverage may not necessitate the need for a watch. DISCUSSION...Storms are already developing over south-central PA, along the southern periphery of a weak MCV. Morning soundings and other sensors indicate PWAT values near 2.00", with relatively poor lapse rates aloft. However, the air mass ahead of the ongoing activity and southward into MD/VA continues to heat strongly, and this will both increase instability through the afternoon, and steepen low-level lapse rates. With time, ongoing activity over southern PA may effectively link with incipient development over the higher terrain of eastern WV/northern VA, with storms moving east/southeast across MD and northern VA. Tall moist profiles combined with modest northwest flow aloft around the upper high and increasing DCAPE over 1000 J/kg will favor a localized areas of strong to perhaps severe gusts. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 38497666 38897800 39177835 39627830 40117802 40477758 40427689 40257624 40037585 39887578 39617575 39077569 38827573 38597584 38447608 38417628 38497666 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Afternoon Update... Isolated dry thunderstorms remain likely from portions of northern CA and southern OR into the northern Rockies. While storm coverage should be scattered, inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings) show at least some lightning potential outside of the heavier wetting rain cores. Have adjusted the IsoDryT area for the latest guidance. ...Eastern Great Basin... On the western periphery of the upper ridge, slight enhancement of southwesterly flow loft will persist over eastern UT and parts of WY/CO. Deep mixing of the boundary layer will promote breezy afternoon surface winds of 15-20 mph. Low humidity of 15-20% will also be colocated with the stronger wind gusts. This could support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential Sunday. ..Lyons.. 07/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper troughing will persist along the West Coast as the upper ridge continues to build over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Sunday). Mid-level moisture along the upper trough will overspread a dry boundary layer, characterized by inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings). As such, a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms is anticipated during the afternoon and evening hours across portions of the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies. Given dry fuels over the region and associated potential for lightning induced ignitions, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Afternoon Update... Isolated dry thunderstorms remain likely from portions of northern CA and southern OR into the northern Rockies. While storm coverage should be scattered, inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings) show at least some lightning potential outside of the heavier wetting rain cores. Have adjusted the IsoDryT area for the latest guidance. ...Eastern Great Basin... On the western periphery of the upper ridge, slight enhancement of southwesterly flow loft will persist over eastern UT and parts of WY/CO. Deep mixing of the boundary layer will promote breezy afternoon surface winds of 15-20 mph. Low humidity of 15-20% will also be colocated with the stronger wind gusts. This could support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential Sunday. ..Lyons.. 07/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper troughing will persist along the West Coast as the upper ridge continues to build over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Sunday). Mid-level moisture along the upper trough will overspread a dry boundary layer, characterized by inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings). As such, a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms is anticipated during the afternoon and evening hours across portions of the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies. Given dry fuels over the region and associated potential for lightning induced ignitions, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Afternoon Update... Isolated dry thunderstorms remain likely from portions of northern CA and southern OR into the northern Rockies. While storm coverage should be scattered, inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings) show at least some lightning potential outside of the heavier wetting rain cores. Have adjusted the IsoDryT area for the latest guidance. ...Eastern Great Basin... On the western periphery of the upper ridge, slight enhancement of southwesterly flow loft will persist over eastern UT and parts of WY/CO. Deep mixing of the boundary layer will promote breezy afternoon surface winds of 15-20 mph. Low humidity of 15-20% will also be colocated with the stronger wind gusts. This could support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential Sunday. ..Lyons.. 07/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper troughing will persist along the West Coast as the upper ridge continues to build over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Sunday). Mid-level moisture along the upper trough will overspread a dry boundary layer, characterized by inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings). As such, a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms is anticipated during the afternoon and evening hours across portions of the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies. Given dry fuels over the region and associated potential for lightning induced ignitions, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Afternoon Update... Isolated dry thunderstorms remain likely from portions of northern CA and southern OR into the northern Rockies. While storm coverage should be scattered, inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings) show at least some lightning potential outside of the heavier wetting rain cores. Have adjusted the IsoDryT area for the latest guidance. ...Eastern Great Basin... On the western periphery of the upper ridge, slight enhancement of southwesterly flow loft will persist over eastern UT and parts of WY/CO. Deep mixing of the boundary layer will promote breezy afternoon surface winds of 15-20 mph. Low humidity of 15-20% will also be colocated with the stronger wind gusts. This could support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential Sunday. ..Lyons.. 07/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper troughing will persist along the West Coast as the upper ridge continues to build over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Sunday). Mid-level moisture along the upper trough will overspread a dry boundary layer, characterized by inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings). As such, a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms is anticipated during the afternoon and evening hours across portions of the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies. Given dry fuels over the region and associated potential for lightning induced ignitions, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Afternoon Update... Isolated dry thunderstorms remain likely from portions of northern CA and southern OR into the northern Rockies. While storm coverage should be scattered, inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings) show at least some lightning potential outside of the heavier wetting rain cores. Have adjusted the IsoDryT area for the latest guidance. ...Eastern Great Basin... On the western periphery of the upper ridge, slight enhancement of southwesterly flow loft will persist over eastern UT and parts of WY/CO. Deep mixing of the boundary layer will promote breezy afternoon surface winds of 15-20 mph. Low humidity of 15-20% will also be colocated with the stronger wind gusts. This could support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential Sunday. ..Lyons.. 07/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper troughing will persist along the West Coast as the upper ridge continues to build over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Sunday). Mid-level moisture along the upper trough will overspread a dry boundary layer, characterized by inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings). As such, a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms is anticipated during the afternoon and evening hours across portions of the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies. Given dry fuels over the region and associated potential for lightning induced ignitions, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Afternoon Update... Isolated dry thunderstorms remain likely from portions of northern CA and southern OR into the northern Rockies. While storm coverage should be scattered, inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings) show at least some lightning potential outside of the heavier wetting rain cores. Have adjusted the IsoDryT area for the latest guidance. ...Eastern Great Basin... On the western periphery of the upper ridge, slight enhancement of southwesterly flow loft will persist over eastern UT and parts of WY/CO. Deep mixing of the boundary layer will promote breezy afternoon surface winds of 15-20 mph. Low humidity of 15-20% will also be colocated with the stronger wind gusts. This could support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential Sunday. ..Lyons.. 07/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper troughing will persist along the West Coast as the upper ridge continues to build over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Sunday). Mid-level moisture along the upper trough will overspread a dry boundary layer, characterized by inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings). As such, a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms is anticipated during the afternoon and evening hours across portions of the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies. Given dry fuels over the region and associated potential for lightning induced ignitions, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Afternoon Update... Isolated dry thunderstorms remain likely from portions of northern CA and southern OR into the northern Rockies. While storm coverage should be scattered, inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings) show at least some lightning potential outside of the heavier wetting rain cores. Have adjusted the IsoDryT area for the latest guidance. ...Eastern Great Basin... On the western periphery of the upper ridge, slight enhancement of southwesterly flow loft will persist over eastern UT and parts of WY/CO. Deep mixing of the boundary layer will promote breezy afternoon surface winds of 15-20 mph. Low humidity of 15-20% will also be colocated with the stronger wind gusts. This could support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential Sunday. ..Lyons.. 07/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper troughing will persist along the West Coast as the upper ridge continues to build over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Sunday). Mid-level moisture along the upper trough will overspread a dry boundary layer, characterized by inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings). As such, a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms is anticipated during the afternoon and evening hours across portions of the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies. Given dry fuels over the region and associated potential for lightning induced ignitions, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Afternoon Update... Isolated dry thunderstorms remain likely from portions of northern CA and southern OR into the northern Rockies. While storm coverage should be scattered, inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings) show at least some lightning potential outside of the heavier wetting rain cores. Have adjusted the IsoDryT area for the latest guidance. ...Eastern Great Basin... On the western periphery of the upper ridge, slight enhancement of southwesterly flow loft will persist over eastern UT and parts of WY/CO. Deep mixing of the boundary layer will promote breezy afternoon surface winds of 15-20 mph. Low humidity of 15-20% will also be colocated with the stronger wind gusts. This could support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential Sunday. ..Lyons.. 07/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper troughing will persist along the West Coast as the upper ridge continues to build over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Sunday). Mid-level moisture along the upper trough will overspread a dry boundary layer, characterized by inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings). As such, a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms is anticipated during the afternoon and evening hours across portions of the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies. Given dry fuels over the region and associated potential for lightning induced ignitions, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Afternoon Update... Isolated dry thunderstorms remain likely from portions of northern CA and southern OR into the northern Rockies. While storm coverage should be scattered, inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings) show at least some lightning potential outside of the heavier wetting rain cores. Have adjusted the IsoDryT area for the latest guidance. ...Eastern Great Basin... On the western periphery of the upper ridge, slight enhancement of southwesterly flow loft will persist over eastern UT and parts of WY/CO. Deep mixing of the boundary layer will promote breezy afternoon surface winds of 15-20 mph. Low humidity of 15-20% will also be colocated with the stronger wind gusts. This could support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential Sunday. ..Lyons.. 07/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper troughing will persist along the West Coast as the upper ridge continues to build over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Sunday). Mid-level moisture along the upper trough will overspread a dry boundary layer, characterized by inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings). As such, a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms is anticipated during the afternoon and evening hours across portions of the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies. Given dry fuels over the region and associated potential for lightning induced ignitions, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Afternoon Update... Isolated dry thunderstorms remain likely from portions of northern CA and southern OR into the northern Rockies. While storm coverage should be scattered, inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings) show at least some lightning potential outside of the heavier wetting rain cores. Have adjusted the IsoDryT area for the latest guidance. ...Eastern Great Basin... On the western periphery of the upper ridge, slight enhancement of southwesterly flow loft will persist over eastern UT and parts of WY/CO. Deep mixing of the boundary layer will promote breezy afternoon surface winds of 15-20 mph. Low humidity of 15-20% will also be colocated with the stronger wind gusts. This could support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential Sunday. ..Lyons.. 07/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper troughing will persist along the West Coast as the upper ridge continues to build over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Sunday). Mid-level moisture along the upper trough will overspread a dry boundary layer, characterized by inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings). As such, a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms is anticipated during the afternoon and evening hours across portions of the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies. Given dry fuels over the region and associated potential for lightning induced ignitions, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Afternoon Update... Isolated dry thunderstorms remain likely from portions of northern CA and southern OR into the northern Rockies. While storm coverage should be scattered, inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings) show at least some lightning potential outside of the heavier wetting rain cores. Have adjusted the IsoDryT area for the latest guidance. ...Eastern Great Basin... On the western periphery of the upper ridge, slight enhancement of southwesterly flow loft will persist over eastern UT and parts of WY/CO. Deep mixing of the boundary layer will promote breezy afternoon surface winds of 15-20 mph. Low humidity of 15-20% will also be colocated with the stronger wind gusts. This could support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential Sunday. ..Lyons.. 07/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper troughing will persist along the West Coast as the upper ridge continues to build over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Sunday). Mid-level moisture along the upper trough will overspread a dry boundary layer, characterized by inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings). As such, a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms is anticipated during the afternoon and evening hours across portions of the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies. Given dry fuels over the region and associated potential for lightning induced ignitions, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Afternoon Update... Isolated dry thunderstorms remain likely from portions of northern CA and southern OR into the northern Rockies. While storm coverage should be scattered, inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings) show at least some lightning potential outside of the heavier wetting rain cores. Have adjusted the IsoDryT area for the latest guidance. ...Eastern Great Basin... On the western periphery of the upper ridge, slight enhancement of southwesterly flow loft will persist over eastern UT and parts of WY/CO. Deep mixing of the boundary layer will promote breezy afternoon surface winds of 15-20 mph. Low humidity of 15-20% will also be colocated with the stronger wind gusts. This could support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential Sunday. ..Lyons.. 07/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper troughing will persist along the West Coast as the upper ridge continues to build over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Sunday). Mid-level moisture along the upper trough will overspread a dry boundary layer, characterized by inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings). As such, a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms is anticipated during the afternoon and evening hours across portions of the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies. Given dry fuels over the region and associated potential for lightning induced ignitions, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Afternoon Update... Isolated dry thunderstorms remain likely from portions of northern CA and southern OR into the northern Rockies. While storm coverage should be scattered, inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings) show at least some lightning potential outside of the heavier wetting rain cores. Have adjusted the IsoDryT area for the latest guidance. ...Eastern Great Basin... On the western periphery of the upper ridge, slight enhancement of southwesterly flow loft will persist over eastern UT and parts of WY/CO. Deep mixing of the boundary layer will promote breezy afternoon surface winds of 15-20 mph. Low humidity of 15-20% will also be colocated with the stronger wind gusts. This could support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential Sunday. ..Lyons.. 07/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper troughing will persist along the West Coast as the upper ridge continues to build over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Sunday). Mid-level moisture along the upper trough will overspread a dry boundary layer, characterized by inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings). As such, a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms is anticipated during the afternoon and evening hours across portions of the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies. Given dry fuels over the region and associated potential for lightning induced ignitions, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MONTANA...THE DAKOTAS...IOWA...MINNESOTA...AND WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and Upper Midwest. ...Southeast Montana and the Dakotas to Wisconsin... A couple of shortwave impulses are forecast to move eastward through westerly flow aloft on Sunday. At the surface, low pressure is forecast over SD, with a surface front expected to develop south/southeast from southeast MT to the Mid-MO Valley into early Monday. A very moist airmass will be in place ahead of the surface low/front across SD into parts of MN/IA/WI. This will support a broad area of strong to extreme instability. However, uncertainty persists, and is mainly a result of how convection and a potential MCS will develop in the Day 2/Sunday period and what impacts those storms may have on the boundary layer across parts of the Upper Midwest. Nevertheless, it appears likely isolated storms will develop near the surface low and within the post-frontal regime from southeast MT into the Black Hills vicinity. This activity will pose a risk of mainly strong/severe gusts and perhaps some marginal hail. With eastward extent across SD into MN/IA/WI, storms will likely form along the southward-advancing front. Some guidance depicts a modest low-level jet developing during the evening. Coupled with sufficient effective shear, and strong instability, upscale growth into an MCS is possible. Where this may occur is uncertain as previously mentioned outflow from prior convection may result in lingering inhibition. Some severe wind risk appears possible and the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) will be maintained, though higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central MT... Isolated thunderstorms will develop over higher terrain during the afternoon/evening as a shortwave trough migrates through the upper ridge over the Pacific Northwest. Sufficient moisture will be in place and relatively cool temperatures aloft will aid in MLCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg. Effective shear magnitudes around 25-30 kt will support occasionally organized cells. A deeply mixed boundary layer will foster locally strong/damaging wind potential. ..Leitman.. 07/26/2025 Read more