Severe Storms

WW 0545 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 545 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE BIL TO 45 N HVR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1800 ..MOORE..07/27/25 ATTN...WFO...TFX...GGW...BYZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 545 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC005-019-021-033-055-069-071-079-083-085-091-105-109-270240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE DANIELS DAWSON GARFIELD MCCONE PETROLEUM PHILLIPS PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROOSEVELT SHERIDAN VALLEY WIBAUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0545 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 545 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE BIL TO 45 N HVR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1800 ..MOORE..07/27/25 ATTN...WFO...TFX...GGW...BYZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 545 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC005-019-021-033-055-069-071-079-083-085-091-105-109-270240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE DANIELS DAWSON GARFIELD MCCONE PETROLEUM PHILLIPS PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROOSEVELT SHERIDAN VALLEY WIBAUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1799 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 544... FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1799 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Areas affected...portions of extreme northeast Colorado into western Nebraska and far south-central South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 544... Valid 270016Z - 270145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 544 continues. SUMMARY...Severe gusts will remain a concern over the next several hours with an eastward-advancing MCS. DISCUSSION...An MCS is organizing over western NE, where several sub-severe gusts have been measured. Over the next several hours, this MCS cold-pool-driven MCS will propagate eastward amid 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear is not overly strong, and MLCINH is beginning to increase across the central Plains. Nonetheless, the 25+ kt effective bulk shear vectors in place are roughly normal to the MCS leading line, so continued organization is not out of the question. Should the MCS continue to intensify, severe gusts may become more probable before the MCS becomes increasingly elevated with strengthening MLCINH. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU... LAT...LON 40590244 42110214 43070154 43390090 43430033 43340011 42849993 41960009 41010032 40610057 40440130 40460184 40590244 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible this evening into tonight across parts of the northern Plains from eastern Montana into the Dakotas and southward to Nebraska. Isolated damaging wind gusts will also be possible this evening from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley eastward into the Mid-Atlantic. ...Central and Northern Plains/Northern Rockies... At mid-levels, a ridge will remain located over the northern Plains this evening, as a shortwave trough approaches from the southwest. The shortwave is moving northeastward across the central and northern Rockies, which is evident on water vapor imagery. Ahead of this feature, large-scale ascent will overspread a moist airmass located across the central and northern Plains. Surface dewpoints within this airmass are mostly from the mid 60s to mid 70s F. This is contributing to a large pocket of strong instability across the Dakotas, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 3500 to 5500 J/kg range, according to RAP analysis data. Moderate instability extends southward into the central Plains. Along the western edge of the stronger instability, a broken line of thunderstorms is ongoing from central South Dakota southward into western Nebraska. Moderate deep-layer shear is analyzed by the RAP over much central and northern Plains. The stronger flow is a result of upper-level jets located over far southern Canada and central Nebraska. RAP forecast soundings from western Nebraska northward into the central Dakotas generally show 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with directional shear located in the low to mid-levels. This will be favorable for supercell development this evening, mainly with cells that remain semi-discrete. Supercells will likely have an isolated large hail threat, mainly from central South Dakota into southern and eastern North Dakota, where the strongest instability is located. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. In addition, organized line segments with wind-damage potential are expected. Further west into parts of the northern High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across central and northeast Montana. As the shortwave trough moves across the region this evening, convective coverage is expected to gradually increase. A severe threat will be possible along an near an axis of moderate instability, which the RAP currently shows from northwestern North Dakota into north-central Montana. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates would be favorable for damaging wind gusts with the stronger storms. ....Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level trough is currently evident on water vapor imagery over the central and southern Great Lakes. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along the southern edge of this feature from the mid Mississippi Valley eastward into the central Appalachians. Along this east-to-west corridor, surface dewpoints are from the 70s into the lower 80s F. This is contributing to moderate instability, which is present over most of the region. The unstable environment should support a marginal wind-damage threat associated with the stronger multicells this evening. ..Broyles.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible this evening into tonight across parts of the northern Plains from eastern Montana into the Dakotas and southward to Nebraska. Isolated damaging wind gusts will also be possible this evening from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley eastward into the Mid-Atlantic. ...Central and Northern Plains/Northern Rockies... At mid-levels, a ridge will remain located over the northern Plains this evening, as a shortwave trough approaches from the southwest. The shortwave is moving northeastward across the central and northern Rockies, which is evident on water vapor imagery. Ahead of this feature, large-scale ascent will overspread a moist airmass located across the central and northern Plains. Surface dewpoints within this airmass are mostly from the mid 60s to mid 70s F. This is contributing to a large pocket of strong instability across the Dakotas, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 3500 to 5500 J/kg range, according to RAP analysis data. Moderate instability extends southward into the central Plains. Along the western edge of the stronger instability, a broken line of thunderstorms is ongoing from central South Dakota southward into western Nebraska. Moderate deep-layer shear is analyzed by the RAP over much central and northern Plains. The stronger flow is a result of upper-level jets located over far southern Canada and central Nebraska. RAP forecast soundings from western Nebraska northward into the central Dakotas generally show 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with directional shear located in the low to mid-levels. This will be favorable for supercell development this evening, mainly with cells that remain semi-discrete. Supercells will likely have an isolated large hail threat, mainly from central South Dakota into southern and eastern North Dakota, where the strongest instability is located. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. In addition, organized line segments with wind-damage potential are expected. Further west into parts of the northern High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across central and northeast Montana. As the shortwave trough moves across the region this evening, convective coverage is expected to gradually increase. A severe threat will be possible along an near an axis of moderate instability, which the RAP currently shows from northwestern North Dakota into north-central Montana. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates would be favorable for damaging wind gusts with the stronger storms. ....Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level trough is currently evident on water vapor imagery over the central and southern Great Lakes. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along the southern edge of this feature from the mid Mississippi Valley eastward into the central Appalachians. Along this east-to-west corridor, surface dewpoints are from the 70s into the lower 80s F. This is contributing to moderate instability, which is present over most of the region. The unstable environment should support a marginal wind-damage threat associated with the stronger multicells this evening. ..Broyles.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible this evening into tonight across parts of the northern Plains from eastern Montana into the Dakotas and southward to Nebraska. Isolated damaging wind gusts will also be possible this evening from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley eastward into the Mid-Atlantic. ...Central and Northern Plains/Northern Rockies... At mid-levels, a ridge will remain located over the northern Plains this evening, as a shortwave trough approaches from the southwest. The shortwave is moving northeastward across the central and northern Rockies, which is evident on water vapor imagery. Ahead of this feature, large-scale ascent will overspread a moist airmass located across the central and northern Plains. Surface dewpoints within this airmass are mostly from the mid 60s to mid 70s F. This is contributing to a large pocket of strong instability across the Dakotas, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 3500 to 5500 J/kg range, according to RAP analysis data. Moderate instability extends southward into the central Plains. Along the western edge of the stronger instability, a broken line of thunderstorms is ongoing from central South Dakota southward into western Nebraska. Moderate deep-layer shear is analyzed by the RAP over much central and northern Plains. The stronger flow is a result of upper-level jets located over far southern Canada and central Nebraska. RAP forecast soundings from western Nebraska northward into the central Dakotas generally show 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with directional shear located in the low to mid-levels. This will be favorable for supercell development this evening, mainly with cells that remain semi-discrete. Supercells will likely have an isolated large hail threat, mainly from central South Dakota into southern and eastern North Dakota, where the strongest instability is located. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. In addition, organized line segments with wind-damage potential are expected. Further west into parts of the northern High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across central and northeast Montana. As the shortwave trough moves across the region this evening, convective coverage is expected to gradually increase. A severe threat will be possible along an near an axis of moderate instability, which the RAP currently shows from northwestern North Dakota into north-central Montana. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates would be favorable for damaging wind gusts with the stronger storms. ....Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level trough is currently evident on water vapor imagery over the central and southern Great Lakes. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along the southern edge of this feature from the mid Mississippi Valley eastward into the central Appalachians. Along this east-to-west corridor, surface dewpoints are from the 70s into the lower 80s F. This is contributing to moderate instability, which is present over most of the region. The unstable environment should support a marginal wind-damage threat associated with the stronger multicells this evening. ..Broyles.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible this evening into tonight across parts of the northern Plains from eastern Montana into the Dakotas and southward to Nebraska. Isolated damaging wind gusts will also be possible this evening from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley eastward into the Mid-Atlantic. ...Central and Northern Plains/Northern Rockies... At mid-levels, a ridge will remain located over the northern Plains this evening, as a shortwave trough approaches from the southwest. The shortwave is moving northeastward across the central and northern Rockies, which is evident on water vapor imagery. Ahead of this feature, large-scale ascent will overspread a moist airmass located across the central and northern Plains. Surface dewpoints within this airmass are mostly from the mid 60s to mid 70s F. This is contributing to a large pocket of strong instability across the Dakotas, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 3500 to 5500 J/kg range, according to RAP analysis data. Moderate instability extends southward into the central Plains. Along the western edge of the stronger instability, a broken line of thunderstorms is ongoing from central South Dakota southward into western Nebraska. Moderate deep-layer shear is analyzed by the RAP over much central and northern Plains. The stronger flow is a result of upper-level jets located over far southern Canada and central Nebraska. RAP forecast soundings from western Nebraska northward into the central Dakotas generally show 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with directional shear located in the low to mid-levels. This will be favorable for supercell development this evening, mainly with cells that remain semi-discrete. Supercells will likely have an isolated large hail threat, mainly from central South Dakota into southern and eastern North Dakota, where the strongest instability is located. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. In addition, organized line segments with wind-damage potential are expected. Further west into parts of the northern High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across central and northeast Montana. As the shortwave trough moves across the region this evening, convective coverage is expected to gradually increase. A severe threat will be possible along an near an axis of moderate instability, which the RAP currently shows from northwestern North Dakota into north-central Montana. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates would be favorable for damaging wind gusts with the stronger storms. ....Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level trough is currently evident on water vapor imagery over the central and southern Great Lakes. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along the southern edge of this feature from the mid Mississippi Valley eastward into the central Appalachians. Along this east-to-west corridor, surface dewpoints are from the 70s into the lower 80s F. This is contributing to moderate instability, which is present over most of the region. The unstable environment should support a marginal wind-damage threat associated with the stronger multicells this evening. ..Broyles.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible this evening into tonight across parts of the northern Plains from eastern Montana into the Dakotas and southward to Nebraska. Isolated damaging wind gusts will also be possible this evening from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley eastward into the Mid-Atlantic. ...Central and Northern Plains/Northern Rockies... At mid-levels, a ridge will remain located over the northern Plains this evening, as a shortwave trough approaches from the southwest. The shortwave is moving northeastward across the central and northern Rockies, which is evident on water vapor imagery. Ahead of this feature, large-scale ascent will overspread a moist airmass located across the central and northern Plains. Surface dewpoints within this airmass are mostly from the mid 60s to mid 70s F. This is contributing to a large pocket of strong instability across the Dakotas, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 3500 to 5500 J/kg range, according to RAP analysis data. Moderate instability extends southward into the central Plains. Along the western edge of the stronger instability, a broken line of thunderstorms is ongoing from central South Dakota southward into western Nebraska. Moderate deep-layer shear is analyzed by the RAP over much central and northern Plains. The stronger flow is a result of upper-level jets located over far southern Canada and central Nebraska. RAP forecast soundings from western Nebraska northward into the central Dakotas generally show 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with directional shear located in the low to mid-levels. This will be favorable for supercell development this evening, mainly with cells that remain semi-discrete. Supercells will likely have an isolated large hail threat, mainly from central South Dakota into southern and eastern North Dakota, where the strongest instability is located. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. In addition, organized line segments with wind-damage potential are expected. Further west into parts of the northern High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across central and northeast Montana. As the shortwave trough moves across the region this evening, convective coverage is expected to gradually increase. A severe threat will be possible along an near an axis of moderate instability, which the RAP currently shows from northwestern North Dakota into north-central Montana. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates would be favorable for damaging wind gusts with the stronger storms. ....Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level trough is currently evident on water vapor imagery over the central and southern Great Lakes. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along the southern edge of this feature from the mid Mississippi Valley eastward into the central Appalachians. Along this east-to-west corridor, surface dewpoints are from the 70s into the lower 80s F. This is contributing to moderate instability, which is present over most of the region. The unstable environment should support a marginal wind-damage threat associated with the stronger multicells this evening. ..Broyles.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible this evening into tonight across parts of the northern Plains from eastern Montana into the Dakotas and southward to Nebraska. Isolated damaging wind gusts will also be possible this evening from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley eastward into the Mid-Atlantic. ...Central and Northern Plains/Northern Rockies... At mid-levels, a ridge will remain located over the northern Plains this evening, as a shortwave trough approaches from the southwest. The shortwave is moving northeastward across the central and northern Rockies, which is evident on water vapor imagery. Ahead of this feature, large-scale ascent will overspread a moist airmass located across the central and northern Plains. Surface dewpoints within this airmass are mostly from the mid 60s to mid 70s F. This is contributing to a large pocket of strong instability across the Dakotas, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 3500 to 5500 J/kg range, according to RAP analysis data. Moderate instability extends southward into the central Plains. Along the western edge of the stronger instability, a broken line of thunderstorms is ongoing from central South Dakota southward into western Nebraska. Moderate deep-layer shear is analyzed by the RAP over much central and northern Plains. The stronger flow is a result of upper-level jets located over far southern Canada and central Nebraska. RAP forecast soundings from western Nebraska northward into the central Dakotas generally show 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with directional shear located in the low to mid-levels. This will be favorable for supercell development this evening, mainly with cells that remain semi-discrete. Supercells will likely have an isolated large hail threat, mainly from central South Dakota into southern and eastern North Dakota, where the strongest instability is located. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. In addition, organized line segments with wind-damage potential are expected. Further west into parts of the northern High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across central and northeast Montana. As the shortwave trough moves across the region this evening, convective coverage is expected to gradually increase. A severe threat will be possible along an near an axis of moderate instability, which the RAP currently shows from northwestern North Dakota into north-central Montana. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates would be favorable for damaging wind gusts with the stronger storms. ....Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level trough is currently evident on water vapor imagery over the central and southern Great Lakes. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along the southern edge of this feature from the mid Mississippi Valley eastward into the central Appalachians. Along this east-to-west corridor, surface dewpoints are from the 70s into the lower 80s F. This is contributing to moderate instability, which is present over most of the region. The unstable environment should support a marginal wind-damage threat associated with the stronger multicells this evening. ..Broyles.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible this evening into tonight across parts of the northern Plains from eastern Montana into the Dakotas and southward to Nebraska. Isolated damaging wind gusts will also be possible this evening from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley eastward into the Mid-Atlantic. ...Central and Northern Plains/Northern Rockies... At mid-levels, a ridge will remain located over the northern Plains this evening, as a shortwave trough approaches from the southwest. The shortwave is moving northeastward across the central and northern Rockies, which is evident on water vapor imagery. Ahead of this feature, large-scale ascent will overspread a moist airmass located across the central and northern Plains. Surface dewpoints within this airmass are mostly from the mid 60s to mid 70s F. This is contributing to a large pocket of strong instability across the Dakotas, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 3500 to 5500 J/kg range, according to RAP analysis data. Moderate instability extends southward into the central Plains. Along the western edge of the stronger instability, a broken line of thunderstorms is ongoing from central South Dakota southward into western Nebraska. Moderate deep-layer shear is analyzed by the RAP over much central and northern Plains. The stronger flow is a result of upper-level jets located over far southern Canada and central Nebraska. RAP forecast soundings from western Nebraska northward into the central Dakotas generally show 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with directional shear located in the low to mid-levels. This will be favorable for supercell development this evening, mainly with cells that remain semi-discrete. Supercells will likely have an isolated large hail threat, mainly from central South Dakota into southern and eastern North Dakota, where the strongest instability is located. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. In addition, organized line segments with wind-damage potential are expected. Further west into parts of the northern High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across central and northeast Montana. As the shortwave trough moves across the region this evening, convective coverage is expected to gradually increase. A severe threat will be possible along an near an axis of moderate instability, which the RAP currently shows from northwestern North Dakota into north-central Montana. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates would be favorable for damaging wind gusts with the stronger storms. ....Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level trough is currently evident on water vapor imagery over the central and southern Great Lakes. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along the southern edge of this feature from the mid Mississippi Valley eastward into the central Appalachians. Along this east-to-west corridor, surface dewpoints are from the 70s into the lower 80s F. This is contributing to moderate instability, which is present over most of the region. The unstable environment should support a marginal wind-damage threat associated with the stronger multicells this evening. ..Broyles.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible this evening into tonight across parts of the northern Plains from eastern Montana into the Dakotas and southward to Nebraska. Isolated damaging wind gusts will also be possible this evening from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley eastward into the Mid-Atlantic. ...Central and Northern Plains/Northern Rockies... At mid-levels, a ridge will remain located over the northern Plains this evening, as a shortwave trough approaches from the southwest. The shortwave is moving northeastward across the central and northern Rockies, which is evident on water vapor imagery. Ahead of this feature, large-scale ascent will overspread a moist airmass located across the central and northern Plains. Surface dewpoints within this airmass are mostly from the mid 60s to mid 70s F. This is contributing to a large pocket of strong instability across the Dakotas, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 3500 to 5500 J/kg range, according to RAP analysis data. Moderate instability extends southward into the central Plains. Along the western edge of the stronger instability, a broken line of thunderstorms is ongoing from central South Dakota southward into western Nebraska. Moderate deep-layer shear is analyzed by the RAP over much central and northern Plains. The stronger flow is a result of upper-level jets located over far southern Canada and central Nebraska. RAP forecast soundings from western Nebraska northward into the central Dakotas generally show 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with directional shear located in the low to mid-levels. This will be favorable for supercell development this evening, mainly with cells that remain semi-discrete. Supercells will likely have an isolated large hail threat, mainly from central South Dakota into southern and eastern North Dakota, where the strongest instability is located. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. In addition, organized line segments with wind-damage potential are expected. Further west into parts of the northern High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across central and northeast Montana. As the shortwave trough moves across the region this evening, convective coverage is expected to gradually increase. A severe threat will be possible along an near an axis of moderate instability, which the RAP currently shows from northwestern North Dakota into north-central Montana. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates would be favorable for damaging wind gusts with the stronger storms. ....Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level trough is currently evident on water vapor imagery over the central and southern Great Lakes. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along the southern edge of this feature from the mid Mississippi Valley eastward into the central Appalachians. Along this east-to-west corridor, surface dewpoints are from the 70s into the lower 80s F. This is contributing to moderate instability, which is present over most of the region. The unstable environment should support a marginal wind-damage threat associated with the stronger multicells this evening. ..Broyles.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible this evening into tonight across parts of the northern Plains from eastern Montana into the Dakotas and southward to Nebraska. Isolated damaging wind gusts will also be possible this evening from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley eastward into the Mid-Atlantic. ...Central and Northern Plains/Northern Rockies... At mid-levels, a ridge will remain located over the northern Plains this evening, as a shortwave trough approaches from the southwest. The shortwave is moving northeastward across the central and northern Rockies, which is evident on water vapor imagery. Ahead of this feature, large-scale ascent will overspread a moist airmass located across the central and northern Plains. Surface dewpoints within this airmass are mostly from the mid 60s to mid 70s F. This is contributing to a large pocket of strong instability across the Dakotas, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 3500 to 5500 J/kg range, according to RAP analysis data. Moderate instability extends southward into the central Plains. Along the western edge of the stronger instability, a broken line of thunderstorms is ongoing from central South Dakota southward into western Nebraska. Moderate deep-layer shear is analyzed by the RAP over much central and northern Plains. The stronger flow is a result of upper-level jets located over far southern Canada and central Nebraska. RAP forecast soundings from western Nebraska northward into the central Dakotas generally show 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with directional shear located in the low to mid-levels. This will be favorable for supercell development this evening, mainly with cells that remain semi-discrete. Supercells will likely have an isolated large hail threat, mainly from central South Dakota into southern and eastern North Dakota, where the strongest instability is located. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. In addition, organized line segments with wind-damage potential are expected. Further west into parts of the northern High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across central and northeast Montana. As the shortwave trough moves across the region this evening, convective coverage is expected to gradually increase. A severe threat will be possible along an near an axis of moderate instability, which the RAP currently shows from northwestern North Dakota into north-central Montana. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates would be favorable for damaging wind gusts with the stronger storms. ....Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level trough is currently evident on water vapor imagery over the central and southern Great Lakes. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along the southern edge of this feature from the mid Mississippi Valley eastward into the central Appalachians. Along this east-to-west corridor, surface dewpoints are from the 70s into the lower 80s F. This is contributing to moderate instability, which is present over most of the region. The unstable environment should support a marginal wind-damage threat associated with the stronger multicells this evening. ..Broyles.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible this evening into tonight across parts of the northern Plains from eastern Montana into the Dakotas and southward to Nebraska. Isolated damaging wind gusts will also be possible this evening from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley eastward into the Mid-Atlantic. ...Central and Northern Plains/Northern Rockies... At mid-levels, a ridge will remain located over the northern Plains this evening, as a shortwave trough approaches from the southwest. The shortwave is moving northeastward across the central and northern Rockies, which is evident on water vapor imagery. Ahead of this feature, large-scale ascent will overspread a moist airmass located across the central and northern Plains. Surface dewpoints within this airmass are mostly from the mid 60s to mid 70s F. This is contributing to a large pocket of strong instability across the Dakotas, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 3500 to 5500 J/kg range, according to RAP analysis data. Moderate instability extends southward into the central Plains. Along the western edge of the stronger instability, a broken line of thunderstorms is ongoing from central South Dakota southward into western Nebraska. Moderate deep-layer shear is analyzed by the RAP over much central and northern Plains. The stronger flow is a result of upper-level jets located over far southern Canada and central Nebraska. RAP forecast soundings from western Nebraska northward into the central Dakotas generally show 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with directional shear located in the low to mid-levels. This will be favorable for supercell development this evening, mainly with cells that remain semi-discrete. Supercells will likely have an isolated large hail threat, mainly from central South Dakota into southern and eastern North Dakota, where the strongest instability is located. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. In addition, organized line segments with wind-damage potential are expected. Further west into parts of the northern High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across central and northeast Montana. As the shortwave trough moves across the region this evening, convective coverage is expected to gradually increase. A severe threat will be possible along an near an axis of moderate instability, which the RAP currently shows from northwestern North Dakota into north-central Montana. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates would be favorable for damaging wind gusts with the stronger storms. ....Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level trough is currently evident on water vapor imagery over the central and southern Great Lakes. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along the southern edge of this feature from the mid Mississippi Valley eastward into the central Appalachians. Along this east-to-west corridor, surface dewpoints are from the 70s into the lower 80s F. This is contributing to moderate instability, which is present over most of the region. The unstable environment should support a marginal wind-damage threat associated with the stronger multicells this evening. ..Broyles.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible this evening into tonight across parts of the northern Plains from eastern Montana into the Dakotas and southward to Nebraska. Isolated damaging wind gusts will also be possible this evening from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley eastward into the Mid-Atlantic. ...Central and Northern Plains/Northern Rockies... At mid-levels, a ridge will remain located over the northern Plains this evening, as a shortwave trough approaches from the southwest. The shortwave is moving northeastward across the central and northern Rockies, which is evident on water vapor imagery. Ahead of this feature, large-scale ascent will overspread a moist airmass located across the central and northern Plains. Surface dewpoints within this airmass are mostly from the mid 60s to mid 70s F. This is contributing to a large pocket of strong instability across the Dakotas, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 3500 to 5500 J/kg range, according to RAP analysis data. Moderate instability extends southward into the central Plains. Along the western edge of the stronger instability, a broken line of thunderstorms is ongoing from central South Dakota southward into western Nebraska. Moderate deep-layer shear is analyzed by the RAP over much central and northern Plains. The stronger flow is a result of upper-level jets located over far southern Canada and central Nebraska. RAP forecast soundings from western Nebraska northward into the central Dakotas generally show 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with directional shear located in the low to mid-levels. This will be favorable for supercell development this evening, mainly with cells that remain semi-discrete. Supercells will likely have an isolated large hail threat, mainly from central South Dakota into southern and eastern North Dakota, where the strongest instability is located. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. In addition, organized line segments with wind-damage potential are expected. Further west into parts of the northern High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across central and northeast Montana. As the shortwave trough moves across the region this evening, convective coverage is expected to gradually increase. A severe threat will be possible along an near an axis of moderate instability, which the RAP currently shows from northwestern North Dakota into north-central Montana. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates would be favorable for damaging wind gusts with the stronger storms. ....Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level trough is currently evident on water vapor imagery over the central and southern Great Lakes. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along the southern edge of this feature from the mid Mississippi Valley eastward into the central Appalachians. Along this east-to-west corridor, surface dewpoints are from the 70s into the lower 80s F. This is contributing to moderate instability, which is present over most of the region. The unstable environment should support a marginal wind-damage threat associated with the stronger multicells this evening. ..Broyles.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible this evening into tonight across parts of the northern Plains from eastern Montana into the Dakotas and southward to Nebraska. Isolated damaging wind gusts will also be possible this evening from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley eastward into the Mid-Atlantic. ...Central and Northern Plains/Northern Rockies... At mid-levels, a ridge will remain located over the northern Plains this evening, as a shortwave trough approaches from the southwest. The shortwave is moving northeastward across the central and northern Rockies, which is evident on water vapor imagery. Ahead of this feature, large-scale ascent will overspread a moist airmass located across the central and northern Plains. Surface dewpoints within this airmass are mostly from the mid 60s to mid 70s F. This is contributing to a large pocket of strong instability across the Dakotas, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 3500 to 5500 J/kg range, according to RAP analysis data. Moderate instability extends southward into the central Plains. Along the western edge of the stronger instability, a broken line of thunderstorms is ongoing from central South Dakota southward into western Nebraska. Moderate deep-layer shear is analyzed by the RAP over much central and northern Plains. The stronger flow is a result of upper-level jets located over far southern Canada and central Nebraska. RAP forecast soundings from western Nebraska northward into the central Dakotas generally show 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with directional shear located in the low to mid-levels. This will be favorable for supercell development this evening, mainly with cells that remain semi-discrete. Supercells will likely have an isolated large hail threat, mainly from central South Dakota into southern and eastern North Dakota, where the strongest instability is located. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. In addition, organized line segments with wind-damage potential are expected. Further west into parts of the northern High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across central and northeast Montana. As the shortwave trough moves across the region this evening, convective coverage is expected to gradually increase. A severe threat will be possible along an near an axis of moderate instability, which the RAP currently shows from northwestern North Dakota into north-central Montana. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates would be favorable for damaging wind gusts with the stronger storms. ....Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level trough is currently evident on water vapor imagery over the central and southern Great Lakes. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along the southern edge of this feature from the mid Mississippi Valley eastward into the central Appalachians. Along this east-to-west corridor, surface dewpoints are from the 70s into the lower 80s F. This is contributing to moderate instability, which is present over most of the region. The unstable environment should support a marginal wind-damage threat associated with the stronger multicells this evening. ..Broyles.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible this evening into tonight across parts of the northern Plains from eastern Montana into the Dakotas and southward to Nebraska. Isolated damaging wind gusts will also be possible this evening from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley eastward into the Mid-Atlantic. ...Central and Northern Plains/Northern Rockies... At mid-levels, a ridge will remain located over the northern Plains this evening, as a shortwave trough approaches from the southwest. The shortwave is moving northeastward across the central and northern Rockies, which is evident on water vapor imagery. Ahead of this feature, large-scale ascent will overspread a moist airmass located across the central and northern Plains. Surface dewpoints within this airmass are mostly from the mid 60s to mid 70s F. This is contributing to a large pocket of strong instability across the Dakotas, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 3500 to 5500 J/kg range, according to RAP analysis data. Moderate instability extends southward into the central Plains. Along the western edge of the stronger instability, a broken line of thunderstorms is ongoing from central South Dakota southward into western Nebraska. Moderate deep-layer shear is analyzed by the RAP over much central and northern Plains. The stronger flow is a result of upper-level jets located over far southern Canada and central Nebraska. RAP forecast soundings from western Nebraska northward into the central Dakotas generally show 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with directional shear located in the low to mid-levels. This will be favorable for supercell development this evening, mainly with cells that remain semi-discrete. Supercells will likely have an isolated large hail threat, mainly from central South Dakota into southern and eastern North Dakota, where the strongest instability is located. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. In addition, organized line segments with wind-damage potential are expected. Further west into parts of the northern High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across central and northeast Montana. As the shortwave trough moves across the region this evening, convective coverage is expected to gradually increase. A severe threat will be possible along an near an axis of moderate instability, which the RAP currently shows from northwestern North Dakota into north-central Montana. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates would be favorable for damaging wind gusts with the stronger storms. ....Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level trough is currently evident on water vapor imagery over the central and southern Great Lakes. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along the southern edge of this feature from the mid Mississippi Valley eastward into the central Appalachians. Along this east-to-west corridor, surface dewpoints are from the 70s into the lower 80s F. This is contributing to moderate instability, which is present over most of the region. The unstable environment should support a marginal wind-damage threat associated with the stronger multicells this evening. ..Broyles.. 07/27/2025 Read more

WW 0546 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0546 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1798 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1798 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Areas affected...portions of central South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 262341Z - 270045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Splitting supercells should persist for at least a few more hours in a localized but very favorable environment for severe hazards, including very large hail or a tornado. DISCUSSION...A pair of splitting supercells continue to mature over portions of central SD near the surface low, where large amounts of low-level vertical-oriented vorticity resides. Furthermore, extreme instability precedes the storms, with the latest mesoanalysis showing over 5000 J/kg MLCAPE in place. Finally, with 40 kts of effective bulk shear overspreading this extreme instability, and given 200 m2/s2 effective SRH across northern SD, it seems plausible that a localized but potentially significant-severe threat may accompany these storms over the next few hours. 2+ inch diameter hail will probably be the main hazard with these storms, though a landspout/supercell hybrid tornado could accompany the southern supercell if it can successfully stretch the vertical vorticity in place. It is unclear if a WW issuance is needed at this point given how sparse these storms are. However, upscale-growing storms may approach the Dakotas this evening into the overnight, where greater coverage will exist, and when a WW issuance may be necessary. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR... LAT...LON 44610124 45060115 45390099 45560078 45560039 45330022 45080015 44800017 44590053 44550098 44610124 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1796 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN WYOMING INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1796 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0534 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Areas affected...Northern Wyoming into southeast Montana and the western Dakotas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 262234Z - 270030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...An uptick in convection is noted across northern WY into southeast MT. Trends are being monitored for the potential development of an organized cluster/line later this evening. Timing remains uncertain, but watch issuance is possible if/when this cluster begins to emerge and pose severe wind threat. DISCUSSION...Increasing ascent ahead of a mid-level wave over central WY is evident in recent GOES imagery across northern WY into southeast MT. Within the past hour or so, the number of shallow convective cores, as well as the depth/intensity of existing cores, has begun to increase as ascent attendant to the wave begins to overspread a modestly buoyant air mass in place across the northern High Plains. Over the next couple of hours, coverage of initially cellular, high-based thunderstorms should increase before gradual cold pool amalgamation begins to occur. It remains unclear if cold pool consolidation will be sufficient for the development of a more prominent convective cluster/line, but recent CAM guidance suggests that this could be the initiation zone for a more prolonged MCS that moves northeast into the western Dakotas later this evening. Regardless, in the short term, the high-based nature of the storms within a deeply mixed environment should support the potential for strong to severe downburst winds. A few instances of large hail are also possible within initially discrete cells given increasing deep-layer winds shear with the approach of the upper wave. Convective trends will continue to be monitored, and watch issuance is possible later this evening if/when an organized cluster or line begins to emerge. ..Moore/Mosier.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 43800557 43610633 43640712 44100783 44590804 44920795 46470447 46510360 46300307 45820272 45360264 45010267 44580294 44330326 43800557 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1797 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1797 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0600 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Areas affected...portions of western into southern Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 262300Z - 270030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts may occur over the next few hours. The overall severe threat should remain isolated. DISCUSSION...An MCS has been steadily organizing over western PA over the past couple of hours. This MCS will continue to propagate east-southeastward amid a buoyant airmass, characterized by over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Furthermore, deep-layer westerly flow around the upper ridge is promoting roughly 35 kts of effective speed shear, oriented roughly perpendicular to the MCS leading-line. This may foster continued organization of the MCS, with a few strong, damaging wind gusts possible. The best chance for damaging gusts will be with storm interactions between cells embedded in the MCS with those in the free warm sector. However, severe gusts should remain more sparse, so a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is not currently expected. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ... LAT...LON 41347971 41277862 40957747 40617675 40237645 39977659 39867701 39827771 39897836 39967892 40107944 40247970 40507990 41347971 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more