Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging builds over the remainder of the CONUS today. Weak mid-level perturbations pivoting around the trough will traverse the Great Basin into the northern Rockies, providing enough upper support for both dry and breezy conditions across the central Rockies, and thunderstorm activity over parts of the Northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. Across the central Rockies, sustained southwesterly surface winds may exceed 15 mph for several hours, amid 15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. Across the northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest, the lifting of mid-level moisture will encourage high-based thunderstorm development by afternoon. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles, suggesting that a combination of wet and dry thunderstorms are possible. With dry fuels in place, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging builds over the remainder of the CONUS today. Weak mid-level perturbations pivoting around the trough will traverse the Great Basin into the northern Rockies, providing enough upper support for both dry and breezy conditions across the central Rockies, and thunderstorm activity over parts of the Northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. Across the central Rockies, sustained southwesterly surface winds may exceed 15 mph for several hours, amid 15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. Across the northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest, the lifting of mid-level moisture will encourage high-based thunderstorm development by afternoon. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles, suggesting that a combination of wet and dry thunderstorms are possible. With dry fuels in place, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging builds over the remainder of the CONUS today. Weak mid-level perturbations pivoting around the trough will traverse the Great Basin into the northern Rockies, providing enough upper support for both dry and breezy conditions across the central Rockies, and thunderstorm activity over parts of the Northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. Across the central Rockies, sustained southwesterly surface winds may exceed 15 mph for several hours, amid 15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. Across the northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest, the lifting of mid-level moisture will encourage high-based thunderstorm development by afternoon. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles, suggesting that a combination of wet and dry thunderstorms are possible. With dry fuels in place, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging builds over the remainder of the CONUS today. Weak mid-level perturbations pivoting around the trough will traverse the Great Basin into the northern Rockies, providing enough upper support for both dry and breezy conditions across the central Rockies, and thunderstorm activity over parts of the Northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. Across the central Rockies, sustained southwesterly surface winds may exceed 15 mph for several hours, amid 15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. Across the northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest, the lifting of mid-level moisture will encourage high-based thunderstorm development by afternoon. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles, suggesting that a combination of wet and dry thunderstorms are possible. With dry fuels in place, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging builds over the remainder of the CONUS today. Weak mid-level perturbations pivoting around the trough will traverse the Great Basin into the northern Rockies, providing enough upper support for both dry and breezy conditions across the central Rockies, and thunderstorm activity over parts of the Northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. Across the central Rockies, sustained southwesterly surface winds may exceed 15 mph for several hours, amid 15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. Across the northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest, the lifting of mid-level moisture will encourage high-based thunderstorm development by afternoon. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles, suggesting that a combination of wet and dry thunderstorms are possible. With dry fuels in place, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging builds over the remainder of the CONUS today. Weak mid-level perturbations pivoting around the trough will traverse the Great Basin into the northern Rockies, providing enough upper support for both dry and breezy conditions across the central Rockies, and thunderstorm activity over parts of the Northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. Across the central Rockies, sustained southwesterly surface winds may exceed 15 mph for several hours, amid 15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. Across the northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest, the lifting of mid-level moisture will encourage high-based thunderstorm development by afternoon. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles, suggesting that a combination of wet and dry thunderstorms are possible. With dry fuels in place, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging builds over the remainder of the CONUS today. Weak mid-level perturbations pivoting around the trough will traverse the Great Basin into the northern Rockies, providing enough upper support for both dry and breezy conditions across the central Rockies, and thunderstorm activity over parts of the Northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. Across the central Rockies, sustained southwesterly surface winds may exceed 15 mph for several hours, amid 15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. Across the northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest, the lifting of mid-level moisture will encourage high-based thunderstorm development by afternoon. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles, suggesting that a combination of wet and dry thunderstorms are possible. With dry fuels in place, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging builds over the remainder of the CONUS today. Weak mid-level perturbations pivoting around the trough will traverse the Great Basin into the northern Rockies, providing enough upper support for both dry and breezy conditions across the central Rockies, and thunderstorm activity over parts of the Northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. Across the central Rockies, sustained southwesterly surface winds may exceed 15 mph for several hours, amid 15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. Across the northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest, the lifting of mid-level moisture will encourage high-based thunderstorm development by afternoon. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles, suggesting that a combination of wet and dry thunderstorms are possible. With dry fuels in place, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging builds over the remainder of the CONUS today. Weak mid-level perturbations pivoting around the trough will traverse the Great Basin into the northern Rockies, providing enough upper support for both dry and breezy conditions across the central Rockies, and thunderstorm activity over parts of the Northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. Across the central Rockies, sustained southwesterly surface winds may exceed 15 mph for several hours, amid 15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. Across the northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest, the lifting of mid-level moisture will encourage high-based thunderstorm development by afternoon. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles, suggesting that a combination of wet and dry thunderstorms are possible. With dry fuels in place, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging builds over the remainder of the CONUS today. Weak mid-level perturbations pivoting around the trough will traverse the Great Basin into the northern Rockies, providing enough upper support for both dry and breezy conditions across the central Rockies, and thunderstorm activity over parts of the Northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. Across the central Rockies, sustained southwesterly surface winds may exceed 15 mph for several hours, amid 15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. Across the northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest, the lifting of mid-level moisture will encourage high-based thunderstorm development by afternoon. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles, suggesting that a combination of wet and dry thunderstorms are possible. With dry fuels in place, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging builds over the remainder of the CONUS today. Weak mid-level perturbations pivoting around the trough will traverse the Great Basin into the northern Rockies, providing enough upper support for both dry and breezy conditions across the central Rockies, and thunderstorm activity over parts of the Northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. Across the central Rockies, sustained southwesterly surface winds may exceed 15 mph for several hours, amid 15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. Across the northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest, the lifting of mid-level moisture will encourage high-based thunderstorm development by afternoon. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles, suggesting that a combination of wet and dry thunderstorms are possible. With dry fuels in place, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging builds over the remainder of the CONUS today. Weak mid-level perturbations pivoting around the trough will traverse the Great Basin into the northern Rockies, providing enough upper support for both dry and breezy conditions across the central Rockies, and thunderstorm activity over parts of the Northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. Across the central Rockies, sustained southwesterly surface winds may exceed 15 mph for several hours, amid 15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. Across the northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest, the lifting of mid-level moisture will encourage high-based thunderstorm development by afternoon. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles, suggesting that a combination of wet and dry thunderstorms are possible. With dry fuels in place, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging builds over the remainder of the CONUS today. Weak mid-level perturbations pivoting around the trough will traverse the Great Basin into the northern Rockies, providing enough upper support for both dry and breezy conditions across the central Rockies, and thunderstorm activity over parts of the Northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. Across the central Rockies, sustained southwesterly surface winds may exceed 15 mph for several hours, amid 15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. Across the northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest, the lifting of mid-level moisture will encourage high-based thunderstorm development by afternoon. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles, suggesting that a combination of wet and dry thunderstorms are possible. With dry fuels in place, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging builds over the remainder of the CONUS today. Weak mid-level perturbations pivoting around the trough will traverse the Great Basin into the northern Rockies, providing enough upper support for both dry and breezy conditions across the central Rockies, and thunderstorm activity over parts of the Northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. Across the central Rockies, sustained southwesterly surface winds may exceed 15 mph for several hours, amid 15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. Across the northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest, the lifting of mid-level moisture will encourage high-based thunderstorm development by afternoon. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles, suggesting that a combination of wet and dry thunderstorms are possible. With dry fuels in place, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...FAR NORTHWEST IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and Upper Midwest Monday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Strong mid-level flow will continue in the northern Plains along the crest of the upper ridge in the central CONUS. More modest mid-level winds will also extend westward into the northern Rockies and portions of the northern Great Basin. At the surface, a cold front will be positioned from northern Rockies into the northern Plains. A surface low will deepen in South Dakota/Nebraska. A theta-e boundary/pseudo warm front will extend from the low into Minnesota Wisconsin. A few subtle shortwaves are expected to move into the northern Plains as they progress along the periphery of the upper ridge. ...South Dakota into Upper Mississippi Valley... While the forecast remains complex and there are still some uncertainties to be resolved, there is sufficient confidence in storm development and coverage in parts of central/eastern South Dakota to increase severe probabilities. Strong heating to the west of the surface trough/low, the southward advancing cold front, and subtle lift from mid-level shortwave troughs suggest storm development is more probable than not. Both CAMs as well as mesoscale/global models show signals for this scenario. There is still some potential for storms to develop farther northwest in southeastern Montana and progress along the boundary into greater buoyancy, but this solution is rather uncertain. There is additional uncertainty as to how far east a greater severe threat will extend. The NAM/ECMWF/GFS and a couple of CAMs show an MCS moving through central/southern Minnesota late Sunday into Monday morning. Given the unknown amount of airmass recovery that will occur in this area, Marginal risk probabilities will remain. Strong to extreme buoyancy is expected (3000-4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) south of the cold front. With 35-50 kts of effective shear, storms will be organized. Initial development near the surface low will likely be supercellular for a period, though a couple of brief supercells could also occur along the cold front. These storms would bring the greatest risk for hail and perhaps a tornado. With some larger temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface, along with boundary-parallel shear and eventual southward movement of the front, upscale growth will likely occur fairly quickly in the convective cycle. Potential exists for a severe MCS to develop and move along the boundary. A swath of severe gusts would be possible should this occur. ...Montana into western Dakotas... Modest surface moisture will be pushed into the northern Rockies. Storm development is likely within parts of central Montana over the terrain. With cool temperatures aloft, MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg is possible during the afternoon. Effective shear will be near 30 kts farther west but will increase with eastward extent. A well-mixed boundary layer will promote severe wind potential, though isolated marginal hail could occur with the stronger storms. In eastern Montana, a weak surface trough intersecting with the cold front may serve as a focus for convective development during the early afternoon. Storms would likely be outflow dominant with a primary hazard of severe wind gusts. The question will be whether a more organized cluster can evolve out of this activity and progress southeastward along the boundary. Confidence is too low in this particular outcome to increase severe probabilities. ...Lower Ohio Valley into Mid-South... There is a conditional risk for marginally organized storm clusters associated with an MCV from Sunday convection in the Upper Midwest. Given the uncertain position and intensity of the MCV, highlights will be withheld at this juncture. ..Wendt.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...FAR NORTHWEST IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and Upper Midwest Monday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Strong mid-level flow will continue in the northern Plains along the crest of the upper ridge in the central CONUS. More modest mid-level winds will also extend westward into the northern Rockies and portions of the northern Great Basin. At the surface, a cold front will be positioned from northern Rockies into the northern Plains. A surface low will deepen in South Dakota/Nebraska. A theta-e boundary/pseudo warm front will extend from the low into Minnesota Wisconsin. A few subtle shortwaves are expected to move into the northern Plains as they progress along the periphery of the upper ridge. ...South Dakota into Upper Mississippi Valley... While the forecast remains complex and there are still some uncertainties to be resolved, there is sufficient confidence in storm development and coverage in parts of central/eastern South Dakota to increase severe probabilities. Strong heating to the west of the surface trough/low, the southward advancing cold front, and subtle lift from mid-level shortwave troughs suggest storm development is more probable than not. Both CAMs as well as mesoscale/global models show signals for this scenario. There is still some potential for storms to develop farther northwest in southeastern Montana and progress along the boundary into greater buoyancy, but this solution is rather uncertain. There is additional uncertainty as to how far east a greater severe threat will extend. The NAM/ECMWF/GFS and a couple of CAMs show an MCS moving through central/southern Minnesota late Sunday into Monday morning. Given the unknown amount of airmass recovery that will occur in this area, Marginal risk probabilities will remain. Strong to extreme buoyancy is expected (3000-4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) south of the cold front. With 35-50 kts of effective shear, storms will be organized. Initial development near the surface low will likely be supercellular for a period, though a couple of brief supercells could also occur along the cold front. These storms would bring the greatest risk for hail and perhaps a tornado. With some larger temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface, along with boundary-parallel shear and eventual southward movement of the front, upscale growth will likely occur fairly quickly in the convective cycle. Potential exists for a severe MCS to develop and move along the boundary. A swath of severe gusts would be possible should this occur. ...Montana into western Dakotas... Modest surface moisture will be pushed into the northern Rockies. Storm development is likely within parts of central Montana over the terrain. With cool temperatures aloft, MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg is possible during the afternoon. Effective shear will be near 30 kts farther west but will increase with eastward extent. A well-mixed boundary layer will promote severe wind potential, though isolated marginal hail could occur with the stronger storms. In eastern Montana, a weak surface trough intersecting with the cold front may serve as a focus for convective development during the early afternoon. Storms would likely be outflow dominant with a primary hazard of severe wind gusts. The question will be whether a more organized cluster can evolve out of this activity and progress southeastward along the boundary. Confidence is too low in this particular outcome to increase severe probabilities. ...Lower Ohio Valley into Mid-South... There is a conditional risk for marginally organized storm clusters associated with an MCV from Sunday convection in the Upper Midwest. Given the uncertain position and intensity of the MCV, highlights will be withheld at this juncture. ..Wendt.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...FAR NORTHWEST IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and Upper Midwest Monday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Strong mid-level flow will continue in the northern Plains along the crest of the upper ridge in the central CONUS. More modest mid-level winds will also extend westward into the northern Rockies and portions of the northern Great Basin. At the surface, a cold front will be positioned from northern Rockies into the northern Plains. A surface low will deepen in South Dakota/Nebraska. A theta-e boundary/pseudo warm front will extend from the low into Minnesota Wisconsin. A few subtle shortwaves are expected to move into the northern Plains as they progress along the periphery of the upper ridge. ...South Dakota into Upper Mississippi Valley... While the forecast remains complex and there are still some uncertainties to be resolved, there is sufficient confidence in storm development and coverage in parts of central/eastern South Dakota to increase severe probabilities. Strong heating to the west of the surface trough/low, the southward advancing cold front, and subtle lift from mid-level shortwave troughs suggest storm development is more probable than not. Both CAMs as well as mesoscale/global models show signals for this scenario. There is still some potential for storms to develop farther northwest in southeastern Montana and progress along the boundary into greater buoyancy, but this solution is rather uncertain. There is additional uncertainty as to how far east a greater severe threat will extend. The NAM/ECMWF/GFS and a couple of CAMs show an MCS moving through central/southern Minnesota late Sunday into Monday morning. Given the unknown amount of airmass recovery that will occur in this area, Marginal risk probabilities will remain. Strong to extreme buoyancy is expected (3000-4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) south of the cold front. With 35-50 kts of effective shear, storms will be organized. Initial development near the surface low will likely be supercellular for a period, though a couple of brief supercells could also occur along the cold front. These storms would bring the greatest risk for hail and perhaps a tornado. With some larger temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface, along with boundary-parallel shear and eventual southward movement of the front, upscale growth will likely occur fairly quickly in the convective cycle. Potential exists for a severe MCS to develop and move along the boundary. A swath of severe gusts would be possible should this occur. ...Montana into western Dakotas... Modest surface moisture will be pushed into the northern Rockies. Storm development is likely within parts of central Montana over the terrain. With cool temperatures aloft, MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg is possible during the afternoon. Effective shear will be near 30 kts farther west but will increase with eastward extent. A well-mixed boundary layer will promote severe wind potential, though isolated marginal hail could occur with the stronger storms. In eastern Montana, a weak surface trough intersecting with the cold front may serve as a focus for convective development during the early afternoon. Storms would likely be outflow dominant with a primary hazard of severe wind gusts. The question will be whether a more organized cluster can evolve out of this activity and progress southeastward along the boundary. Confidence is too low in this particular outcome to increase severe probabilities. ...Lower Ohio Valley into Mid-South... There is a conditional risk for marginally organized storm clusters associated with an MCV from Sunday convection in the Upper Midwest. Given the uncertain position and intensity of the MCV, highlights will be withheld at this juncture. ..Wendt.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...FAR NORTHWEST IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and Upper Midwest Monday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Strong mid-level flow will continue in the northern Plains along the crest of the upper ridge in the central CONUS. More modest mid-level winds will also extend westward into the northern Rockies and portions of the northern Great Basin. At the surface, a cold front will be positioned from northern Rockies into the northern Plains. A surface low will deepen in South Dakota/Nebraska. A theta-e boundary/pseudo warm front will extend from the low into Minnesota Wisconsin. A few subtle shortwaves are expected to move into the northern Plains as they progress along the periphery of the upper ridge. ...South Dakota into Upper Mississippi Valley... While the forecast remains complex and there are still some uncertainties to be resolved, there is sufficient confidence in storm development and coverage in parts of central/eastern South Dakota to increase severe probabilities. Strong heating to the west of the surface trough/low, the southward advancing cold front, and subtle lift from mid-level shortwave troughs suggest storm development is more probable than not. Both CAMs as well as mesoscale/global models show signals for this scenario. There is still some potential for storms to develop farther northwest in southeastern Montana and progress along the boundary into greater buoyancy, but this solution is rather uncertain. There is additional uncertainty as to how far east a greater severe threat will extend. The NAM/ECMWF/GFS and a couple of CAMs show an MCS moving through central/southern Minnesota late Sunday into Monday morning. Given the unknown amount of airmass recovery that will occur in this area, Marginal risk probabilities will remain. Strong to extreme buoyancy is expected (3000-4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) south of the cold front. With 35-50 kts of effective shear, storms will be organized. Initial development near the surface low will likely be supercellular for a period, though a couple of brief supercells could also occur along the cold front. These storms would bring the greatest risk for hail and perhaps a tornado. With some larger temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface, along with boundary-parallel shear and eventual southward movement of the front, upscale growth will likely occur fairly quickly in the convective cycle. Potential exists for a severe MCS to develop and move along the boundary. A swath of severe gusts would be possible should this occur. ...Montana into western Dakotas... Modest surface moisture will be pushed into the northern Rockies. Storm development is likely within parts of central Montana over the terrain. With cool temperatures aloft, MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg is possible during the afternoon. Effective shear will be near 30 kts farther west but will increase with eastward extent. A well-mixed boundary layer will promote severe wind potential, though isolated marginal hail could occur with the stronger storms. In eastern Montana, a weak surface trough intersecting with the cold front may serve as a focus for convective development during the early afternoon. Storms would likely be outflow dominant with a primary hazard of severe wind gusts. The question will be whether a more organized cluster can evolve out of this activity and progress southeastward along the boundary. Confidence is too low in this particular outcome to increase severe probabilities. ...Lower Ohio Valley into Mid-South... There is a conditional risk for marginally organized storm clusters associated with an MCV from Sunday convection in the Upper Midwest. Given the uncertain position and intensity of the MCV, highlights will be withheld at this juncture. ..Wendt.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...FAR NORTHWEST IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and Upper Midwest Monday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Strong mid-level flow will continue in the northern Plains along the crest of the upper ridge in the central CONUS. More modest mid-level winds will also extend westward into the northern Rockies and portions of the northern Great Basin. At the surface, a cold front will be positioned from northern Rockies into the northern Plains. A surface low will deepen in South Dakota/Nebraska. A theta-e boundary/pseudo warm front will extend from the low into Minnesota Wisconsin. A few subtle shortwaves are expected to move into the northern Plains as they progress along the periphery of the upper ridge. ...South Dakota into Upper Mississippi Valley... While the forecast remains complex and there are still some uncertainties to be resolved, there is sufficient confidence in storm development and coverage in parts of central/eastern South Dakota to increase severe probabilities. Strong heating to the west of the surface trough/low, the southward advancing cold front, and subtle lift from mid-level shortwave troughs suggest storm development is more probable than not. Both CAMs as well as mesoscale/global models show signals for this scenario. There is still some potential for storms to develop farther northwest in southeastern Montana and progress along the boundary into greater buoyancy, but this solution is rather uncertain. There is additional uncertainty as to how far east a greater severe threat will extend. The NAM/ECMWF/GFS and a couple of CAMs show an MCS moving through central/southern Minnesota late Sunday into Monday morning. Given the unknown amount of airmass recovery that will occur in this area, Marginal risk probabilities will remain. Strong to extreme buoyancy is expected (3000-4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) south of the cold front. With 35-50 kts of effective shear, storms will be organized. Initial development near the surface low will likely be supercellular for a period, though a couple of brief supercells could also occur along the cold front. These storms would bring the greatest risk for hail and perhaps a tornado. With some larger temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface, along with boundary-parallel shear and eventual southward movement of the front, upscale growth will likely occur fairly quickly in the convective cycle. Potential exists for a severe MCS to develop and move along the boundary. A swath of severe gusts would be possible should this occur. ...Montana into western Dakotas... Modest surface moisture will be pushed into the northern Rockies. Storm development is likely within parts of central Montana over the terrain. With cool temperatures aloft, MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg is possible during the afternoon. Effective shear will be near 30 kts farther west but will increase with eastward extent. A well-mixed boundary layer will promote severe wind potential, though isolated marginal hail could occur with the stronger storms. In eastern Montana, a weak surface trough intersecting with the cold front may serve as a focus for convective development during the early afternoon. Storms would likely be outflow dominant with a primary hazard of severe wind gusts. The question will be whether a more organized cluster can evolve out of this activity and progress southeastward along the boundary. Confidence is too low in this particular outcome to increase severe probabilities. ...Lower Ohio Valley into Mid-South... There is a conditional risk for marginally organized storm clusters associated with an MCV from Sunday convection in the Upper Midwest. Given the uncertain position and intensity of the MCV, highlights will be withheld at this juncture. ..Wendt.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...FAR NORTHWEST IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and Upper Midwest Monday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Strong mid-level flow will continue in the northern Plains along the crest of the upper ridge in the central CONUS. More modest mid-level winds will also extend westward into the northern Rockies and portions of the northern Great Basin. At the surface, a cold front will be positioned from northern Rockies into the northern Plains. A surface low will deepen in South Dakota/Nebraska. A theta-e boundary/pseudo warm front will extend from the low into Minnesota Wisconsin. A few subtle shortwaves are expected to move into the northern Plains as they progress along the periphery of the upper ridge. ...South Dakota into Upper Mississippi Valley... While the forecast remains complex and there are still some uncertainties to be resolved, there is sufficient confidence in storm development and coverage in parts of central/eastern South Dakota to increase severe probabilities. Strong heating to the west of the surface trough/low, the southward advancing cold front, and subtle lift from mid-level shortwave troughs suggest storm development is more probable than not. Both CAMs as well as mesoscale/global models show signals for this scenario. There is still some potential for storms to develop farther northwest in southeastern Montana and progress along the boundary into greater buoyancy, but this solution is rather uncertain. There is additional uncertainty as to how far east a greater severe threat will extend. The NAM/ECMWF/GFS and a couple of CAMs show an MCS moving through central/southern Minnesota late Sunday into Monday morning. Given the unknown amount of airmass recovery that will occur in this area, Marginal risk probabilities will remain. Strong to extreme buoyancy is expected (3000-4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) south of the cold front. With 35-50 kts of effective shear, storms will be organized. Initial development near the surface low will likely be supercellular for a period, though a couple of brief supercells could also occur along the cold front. These storms would bring the greatest risk for hail and perhaps a tornado. With some larger temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface, along with boundary-parallel shear and eventual southward movement of the front, upscale growth will likely occur fairly quickly in the convective cycle. Potential exists for a severe MCS to develop and move along the boundary. A swath of severe gusts would be possible should this occur. ...Montana into western Dakotas... Modest surface moisture will be pushed into the northern Rockies. Storm development is likely within parts of central Montana over the terrain. With cool temperatures aloft, MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg is possible during the afternoon. Effective shear will be near 30 kts farther west but will increase with eastward extent. A well-mixed boundary layer will promote severe wind potential, though isolated marginal hail could occur with the stronger storms. In eastern Montana, a weak surface trough intersecting with the cold front may serve as a focus for convective development during the early afternoon. Storms would likely be outflow dominant with a primary hazard of severe wind gusts. The question will be whether a more organized cluster can evolve out of this activity and progress southeastward along the boundary. Confidence is too low in this particular outcome to increase severe probabilities. ...Lower Ohio Valley into Mid-South... There is a conditional risk for marginally organized storm clusters associated with an MCV from Sunday convection in the Upper Midwest. Given the uncertain position and intensity of the MCV, highlights will be withheld at this juncture. ..Wendt.. 07/27/2025 Read more