Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MONTANA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and Upper Midwest Monday afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging/severe wind gusts are expected. Isolated intense gusts to 85 mph may occur from eastern South Dakota into southern Minnesota. ...Eastern SD into WI... A favorable pattern for a damaging wind event is evident on Monday from central/eastern SD into southern MN, far northern IA and portions of WI. A 10 percent significant wind area has been delineated and the Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been expanded eastward. However, some uncertainties remain (related to Day 1/Sunday convective evolution), precluding a categorical increase to Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) at this time. Enhanced westerly flow is forecast across the northern Plains vicinity as a series of shortwave perturbations float through the top of the upper ridge from the northern Rockies into the Upper Midwest. At 500 mb, 40-60 kt westerly flow will be common. At the surface, a very moist (mid/upper 70s dewpoints) airmass will be in place. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates are also evident if model forecasts. This combination of a very moist/warm boundary layer beneath steep lapse rates will support a corridor of strong to extreme instability (3000-5000+ J/kg MLCAPE) from eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA and southwest WI. A surface low is forecast over southern SD/northern NE. A cold front will develop south/southeast across the Dakotas and Upper Midwest. A modified outflow boundary from Day 1/Sunday convection also will likely be in place across parts of MN/IA/WI, though where this boundary will be is uncertain at this time. The surface low will be a focus for initial robust thunderstorm development in SD during the afternoon. With time, upscale growth is likely to occur as a modest low-level jet develops during the evening. Convection will likely develop east/southeast along the instability gradient defined by prior outflow and the southward sagging cold front. Initial thunderstorms could produce large hail and damaging gusts, with a transition toward damaging/severe wind swaths if/when upscale growth occurs. The main uncertainty precluding higher probabilities is related to how Day 1/Sunday convection will impact the boundary layer and where related outflow and airmass recovery will occur. Higher probabilities may be necessary in subsequent outlooks. ...Montana into the western Dakotas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the post-frontal upslope regime where boundary layer moisture in the mid 50s to mid 60s will persist behind the surface boundary. Strong heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support 1000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE values (from west to east) amid elongated/straight hodographs. Large hail and isolated strong/severe wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ..Leitman.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MONTANA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and Upper Midwest Monday afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging/severe wind gusts are expected. Isolated intense gusts to 85 mph may occur from eastern South Dakota into southern Minnesota. ...Eastern SD into WI... A favorable pattern for a damaging wind event is evident on Monday from central/eastern SD into southern MN, far northern IA and portions of WI. A 10 percent significant wind area has been delineated and the Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been expanded eastward. However, some uncertainties remain (related to Day 1/Sunday convective evolution), precluding a categorical increase to Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) at this time. Enhanced westerly flow is forecast across the northern Plains vicinity as a series of shortwave perturbations float through the top of the upper ridge from the northern Rockies into the Upper Midwest. At 500 mb, 40-60 kt westerly flow will be common. At the surface, a very moist (mid/upper 70s dewpoints) airmass will be in place. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates are also evident if model forecasts. This combination of a very moist/warm boundary layer beneath steep lapse rates will support a corridor of strong to extreme instability (3000-5000+ J/kg MLCAPE) from eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA and southwest WI. A surface low is forecast over southern SD/northern NE. A cold front will develop south/southeast across the Dakotas and Upper Midwest. A modified outflow boundary from Day 1/Sunday convection also will likely be in place across parts of MN/IA/WI, though where this boundary will be is uncertain at this time. The surface low will be a focus for initial robust thunderstorm development in SD during the afternoon. With time, upscale growth is likely to occur as a modest low-level jet develops during the evening. Convection will likely develop east/southeast along the instability gradient defined by prior outflow and the southward sagging cold front. Initial thunderstorms could produce large hail and damaging gusts, with a transition toward damaging/severe wind swaths if/when upscale growth occurs. The main uncertainty precluding higher probabilities is related to how Day 1/Sunday convection will impact the boundary layer and where related outflow and airmass recovery will occur. Higher probabilities may be necessary in subsequent outlooks. ...Montana into the western Dakotas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the post-frontal upslope regime where boundary layer moisture in the mid 50s to mid 60s will persist behind the surface boundary. Strong heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support 1000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE values (from west to east) amid elongated/straight hodographs. Large hail and isolated strong/severe wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ..Leitman.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN MINNESOTA AND FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Midwest to western Great Lakes. Other severe storms will also be possible in parts of the northern Plains, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic. ...Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes including MN/eastern SD... A convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough over northern/eastern North Dakota will continue generally eastward toward northern Minnesota, with a modest flattening of the downstream upper-level ridge into tonight. A modest deepening of the surface low will occur across eastern South Dakota toward the southwest Minnesota border vicinity, with intense thunderstorm development later today generally expected to focus along the southeastward-advancing front, although differential heating and a convectively aided cluster/possible MCV across northeast South Dakota at midday may also be factors. Given the strong buoyancy near/south of the front, and very steep lapse rates/elevated mixed layer impinging from the west-southwest, modestly strong wind profiles will be sufficient for intense supercell development with initial storms, including large hail potential (higher magnitudes possible especially eastern South Dakotas and southwest Minnesota) and some tornado risk. Multiple southeastward-moving clusters should evolve this evening with an increasing likelihood of damaging wind across southern Minnesota into western/northern Wisconsin. Portions of the region have been upgraded to an Enhanced Risk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will continue to increase regionally. Similar to previous days, mid-level lapse rates will be weak and considerable mid-level moisture will keep the overall potential somewhat limited/isolated. However, the strongest cells will be capable of occasional gusty/damaging winds, with a somewhat higher probability of wind damage seemingly existing across eastern Virginia where buoyancy will be greater. ...Montana... Strong heating will occur this afternoon across much of central/eastern Montana, where deep boundary-layer mixing will lead to inverted-v profiles. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along a corridor from southwest into central Montana by late afternoon. These high-based storms may pose a risk of a few severe-caliber wind gusts. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN MINNESOTA AND FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Midwest to western Great Lakes. Other severe storms will also be possible in parts of the northern Plains, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic. ...Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes including MN/eastern SD... A convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough over northern/eastern North Dakota will continue generally eastward toward northern Minnesota, with a modest flattening of the downstream upper-level ridge into tonight. A modest deepening of the surface low will occur across eastern South Dakota toward the southwest Minnesota border vicinity, with intense thunderstorm development later today generally expected to focus along the southeastward-advancing front, although differential heating and a convectively aided cluster/possible MCV across northeast South Dakota at midday may also be factors. Given the strong buoyancy near/south of the front, and very steep lapse rates/elevated mixed layer impinging from the west-southwest, modestly strong wind profiles will be sufficient for intense supercell development with initial storms, including large hail potential (higher magnitudes possible especially eastern South Dakotas and southwest Minnesota) and some tornado risk. Multiple southeastward-moving clusters should evolve this evening with an increasing likelihood of damaging wind across southern Minnesota into western/northern Wisconsin. Portions of the region have been upgraded to an Enhanced Risk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will continue to increase regionally. Similar to previous days, mid-level lapse rates will be weak and considerable mid-level moisture will keep the overall potential somewhat limited/isolated. However, the strongest cells will be capable of occasional gusty/damaging winds, with a somewhat higher probability of wind damage seemingly existing across eastern Virginia where buoyancy will be greater. ...Montana... Strong heating will occur this afternoon across much of central/eastern Montana, where deep boundary-layer mixing will lead to inverted-v profiles. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along a corridor from southwest into central Montana by late afternoon. These high-based storms may pose a risk of a few severe-caliber wind gusts. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN MINNESOTA AND FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Midwest to western Great Lakes. Other severe storms will also be possible in parts of the northern Plains, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic. ...Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes including MN/eastern SD... A convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough over northern/eastern North Dakota will continue generally eastward toward northern Minnesota, with a modest flattening of the downstream upper-level ridge into tonight. A modest deepening of the surface low will occur across eastern South Dakota toward the southwest Minnesota border vicinity, with intense thunderstorm development later today generally expected to focus along the southeastward-advancing front, although differential heating and a convectively aided cluster/possible MCV across northeast South Dakota at midday may also be factors. Given the strong buoyancy near/south of the front, and very steep lapse rates/elevated mixed layer impinging from the west-southwest, modestly strong wind profiles will be sufficient for intense supercell development with initial storms, including large hail potential (higher magnitudes possible especially eastern South Dakotas and southwest Minnesota) and some tornado risk. Multiple southeastward-moving clusters should evolve this evening with an increasing likelihood of damaging wind across southern Minnesota into western/northern Wisconsin. Portions of the region have been upgraded to an Enhanced Risk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will continue to increase regionally. Similar to previous days, mid-level lapse rates will be weak and considerable mid-level moisture will keep the overall potential somewhat limited/isolated. However, the strongest cells will be capable of occasional gusty/damaging winds, with a somewhat higher probability of wind damage seemingly existing across eastern Virginia where buoyancy will be greater. ...Montana... Strong heating will occur this afternoon across much of central/eastern Montana, where deep boundary-layer mixing will lead to inverted-v profiles. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along a corridor from southwest into central Montana by late afternoon. These high-based storms may pose a risk of a few severe-caliber wind gusts. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN MINNESOTA AND FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Midwest to western Great Lakes. Other severe storms will also be possible in parts of the northern Plains, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic. ...Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes including MN/eastern SD... A convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough over northern/eastern North Dakota will continue generally eastward toward northern Minnesota, with a modest flattening of the downstream upper-level ridge into tonight. A modest deepening of the surface low will occur across eastern South Dakota toward the southwest Minnesota border vicinity, with intense thunderstorm development later today generally expected to focus along the southeastward-advancing front, although differential heating and a convectively aided cluster/possible MCV across northeast South Dakota at midday may also be factors. Given the strong buoyancy near/south of the front, and very steep lapse rates/elevated mixed layer impinging from the west-southwest, modestly strong wind profiles will be sufficient for intense supercell development with initial storms, including large hail potential (higher magnitudes possible especially eastern South Dakotas and southwest Minnesota) and some tornado risk. Multiple southeastward-moving clusters should evolve this evening with an increasing likelihood of damaging wind across southern Minnesota into western/northern Wisconsin. Portions of the region have been upgraded to an Enhanced Risk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will continue to increase regionally. Similar to previous days, mid-level lapse rates will be weak and considerable mid-level moisture will keep the overall potential somewhat limited/isolated. However, the strongest cells will be capable of occasional gusty/damaging winds, with a somewhat higher probability of wind damage seemingly existing across eastern Virginia where buoyancy will be greater. ...Montana... Strong heating will occur this afternoon across much of central/eastern Montana, where deep boundary-layer mixing will lead to inverted-v profiles. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along a corridor from southwest into central Montana by late afternoon. These high-based storms may pose a risk of a few severe-caliber wind gusts. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN MINNESOTA AND FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Midwest to western Great Lakes. Other severe storms will also be possible in parts of the northern Plains, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic. ...Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes including MN/eastern SD... A convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough over northern/eastern North Dakota will continue generally eastward toward northern Minnesota, with a modest flattening of the downstream upper-level ridge into tonight. A modest deepening of the surface low will occur across eastern South Dakota toward the southwest Minnesota border vicinity, with intense thunderstorm development later today generally expected to focus along the southeastward-advancing front, although differential heating and a convectively aided cluster/possible MCV across northeast South Dakota at midday may also be factors. Given the strong buoyancy near/south of the front, and very steep lapse rates/elevated mixed layer impinging from the west-southwest, modestly strong wind profiles will be sufficient for intense supercell development with initial storms, including large hail potential (higher magnitudes possible especially eastern South Dakotas and southwest Minnesota) and some tornado risk. Multiple southeastward-moving clusters should evolve this evening with an increasing likelihood of damaging wind across southern Minnesota into western/northern Wisconsin. Portions of the region have been upgraded to an Enhanced Risk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will continue to increase regionally. Similar to previous days, mid-level lapse rates will be weak and considerable mid-level moisture will keep the overall potential somewhat limited/isolated. However, the strongest cells will be capable of occasional gusty/damaging winds, with a somewhat higher probability of wind damage seemingly existing across eastern Virginia where buoyancy will be greater. ...Montana... Strong heating will occur this afternoon across much of central/eastern Montana, where deep boundary-layer mixing will lead to inverted-v profiles. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along a corridor from southwest into central Montana by late afternoon. These high-based storms may pose a risk of a few severe-caliber wind gusts. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN MINNESOTA AND FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Midwest to western Great Lakes. Other severe storms will also be possible in parts of the northern Plains, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic. ...Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes including MN/eastern SD... A convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough over northern/eastern North Dakota will continue generally eastward toward northern Minnesota, with a modest flattening of the downstream upper-level ridge into tonight. A modest deepening of the surface low will occur across eastern South Dakota toward the southwest Minnesota border vicinity, with intense thunderstorm development later today generally expected to focus along the southeastward-advancing front, although differential heating and a convectively aided cluster/possible MCV across northeast South Dakota at midday may also be factors. Given the strong buoyancy near/south of the front, and very steep lapse rates/elevated mixed layer impinging from the west-southwest, modestly strong wind profiles will be sufficient for intense supercell development with initial storms, including large hail potential (higher magnitudes possible especially eastern South Dakotas and southwest Minnesota) and some tornado risk. Multiple southeastward-moving clusters should evolve this evening with an increasing likelihood of damaging wind across southern Minnesota into western/northern Wisconsin. Portions of the region have been upgraded to an Enhanced Risk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will continue to increase regionally. Similar to previous days, mid-level lapse rates will be weak and considerable mid-level moisture will keep the overall potential somewhat limited/isolated. However, the strongest cells will be capable of occasional gusty/damaging winds, with a somewhat higher probability of wind damage seemingly existing across eastern Virginia where buoyancy will be greater. ...Montana... Strong heating will occur this afternoon across much of central/eastern Montana, where deep boundary-layer mixing will lead to inverted-v profiles. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along a corridor from southwest into central Montana by late afternoon. These high-based storms may pose a risk of a few severe-caliber wind gusts. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN MINNESOTA AND FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Midwest to western Great Lakes. Other severe storms will also be possible in parts of the northern Plains, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic. ...Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes including MN/eastern SD... A convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough over northern/eastern North Dakota will continue generally eastward toward northern Minnesota, with a modest flattening of the downstream upper-level ridge into tonight. A modest deepening of the surface low will occur across eastern South Dakota toward the southwest Minnesota border vicinity, with intense thunderstorm development later today generally expected to focus along the southeastward-advancing front, although differential heating and a convectively aided cluster/possible MCV across northeast South Dakota at midday may also be factors. Given the strong buoyancy near/south of the front, and very steep lapse rates/elevated mixed layer impinging from the west-southwest, modestly strong wind profiles will be sufficient for intense supercell development with initial storms, including large hail potential (higher magnitudes possible especially eastern South Dakotas and southwest Minnesota) and some tornado risk. Multiple southeastward-moving clusters should evolve this evening with an increasing likelihood of damaging wind across southern Minnesota into western/northern Wisconsin. Portions of the region have been upgraded to an Enhanced Risk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will continue to increase regionally. Similar to previous days, mid-level lapse rates will be weak and considerable mid-level moisture will keep the overall potential somewhat limited/isolated. However, the strongest cells will be capable of occasional gusty/damaging winds, with a somewhat higher probability of wind damage seemingly existing across eastern Virginia where buoyancy will be greater. ...Montana... Strong heating will occur this afternoon across much of central/eastern Montana, where deep boundary-layer mixing will lead to inverted-v profiles. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along a corridor from southwest into central Montana by late afternoon. These high-based storms may pose a risk of a few severe-caliber wind gusts. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN MINNESOTA AND FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Midwest to western Great Lakes. Other severe storms will also be possible in parts of the northern Plains, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic. ...Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes including MN/eastern SD... A convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough over northern/eastern North Dakota will continue generally eastward toward northern Minnesota, with a modest flattening of the downstream upper-level ridge into tonight. A modest deepening of the surface low will occur across eastern South Dakota toward the southwest Minnesota border vicinity, with intense thunderstorm development later today generally expected to focus along the southeastward-advancing front, although differential heating and a convectively aided cluster/possible MCV across northeast South Dakota at midday may also be factors. Given the strong buoyancy near/south of the front, and very steep lapse rates/elevated mixed layer impinging from the west-southwest, modestly strong wind profiles will be sufficient for intense supercell development with initial storms, including large hail potential (higher magnitudes possible especially eastern South Dakotas and southwest Minnesota) and some tornado risk. Multiple southeastward-moving clusters should evolve this evening with an increasing likelihood of damaging wind across southern Minnesota into western/northern Wisconsin. Portions of the region have been upgraded to an Enhanced Risk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will continue to increase regionally. Similar to previous days, mid-level lapse rates will be weak and considerable mid-level moisture will keep the overall potential somewhat limited/isolated. However, the strongest cells will be capable of occasional gusty/damaging winds, with a somewhat higher probability of wind damage seemingly existing across eastern Virginia where buoyancy will be greater. ...Montana... Strong heating will occur this afternoon across much of central/eastern Montana, where deep boundary-layer mixing will lead to inverted-v profiles. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along a corridor from southwest into central Montana by late afternoon. These high-based storms may pose a risk of a few severe-caliber wind gusts. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN MINNESOTA AND FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Midwest to western Great Lakes. Other severe storms will also be possible in parts of the northern Plains, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic. ...Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes including MN/eastern SD... A convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough over northern/eastern North Dakota will continue generally eastward toward northern Minnesota, with a modest flattening of the downstream upper-level ridge into tonight. A modest deepening of the surface low will occur across eastern South Dakota toward the southwest Minnesota border vicinity, with intense thunderstorm development later today generally expected to focus along the southeastward-advancing front, although differential heating and a convectively aided cluster/possible MCV across northeast South Dakota at midday may also be factors. Given the strong buoyancy near/south of the front, and very steep lapse rates/elevated mixed layer impinging from the west-southwest, modestly strong wind profiles will be sufficient for intense supercell development with initial storms, including large hail potential (higher magnitudes possible especially eastern South Dakotas and southwest Minnesota) and some tornado risk. Multiple southeastward-moving clusters should evolve this evening with an increasing likelihood of damaging wind across southern Minnesota into western/northern Wisconsin. Portions of the region have been upgraded to an Enhanced Risk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will continue to increase regionally. Similar to previous days, mid-level lapse rates will be weak and considerable mid-level moisture will keep the overall potential somewhat limited/isolated. However, the strongest cells will be capable of occasional gusty/damaging winds, with a somewhat higher probability of wind damage seemingly existing across eastern Virginia where buoyancy will be greater. ...Montana... Strong heating will occur this afternoon across much of central/eastern Montana, where deep boundary-layer mixing will lead to inverted-v profiles. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along a corridor from southwest into central Montana by late afternoon. These high-based storms may pose a risk of a few severe-caliber wind gusts. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...17z Update... Morning guidance shows stronger surface winds and continued dry/breezy conditions are likely over parts of southern UT and far eastern NV this afternoon. With gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 20%, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Have updated the western edge of the Elevated area for the most recent guidance. Otherwise, minimal changes were made for the latest guidance. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 07/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging builds over the remainder of the CONUS today. Weak mid-level perturbations pivoting around the trough will traverse the Great Basin into the northern Rockies, providing enough upper support for both dry and breezy conditions across the central Rockies, and thunderstorm activity over parts of the Northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. Across the central Rockies, sustained southwesterly surface winds may exceed 15 mph for several hours, amid 15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. Across the northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest, the lifting of mid-level moisture will encourage high-based thunderstorm development by afternoon. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles, suggesting that a combination of wet and dry thunderstorms are possible. With dry fuels in place, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...17z Update... Morning guidance shows stronger surface winds and continued dry/breezy conditions are likely over parts of southern UT and far eastern NV this afternoon. With gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 20%, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Have updated the western edge of the Elevated area for the most recent guidance. Otherwise, minimal changes were made for the latest guidance. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 07/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging builds over the remainder of the CONUS today. Weak mid-level perturbations pivoting around the trough will traverse the Great Basin into the northern Rockies, providing enough upper support for both dry and breezy conditions across the central Rockies, and thunderstorm activity over parts of the Northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. Across the central Rockies, sustained southwesterly surface winds may exceed 15 mph for several hours, amid 15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. Across the northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest, the lifting of mid-level moisture will encourage high-based thunderstorm development by afternoon. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles, suggesting that a combination of wet and dry thunderstorms are possible. With dry fuels in place, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...17z Update... Morning guidance shows stronger surface winds and continued dry/breezy conditions are likely over parts of southern UT and far eastern NV this afternoon. With gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 20%, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Have updated the western edge of the Elevated area for the most recent guidance. Otherwise, minimal changes were made for the latest guidance. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 07/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging builds over the remainder of the CONUS today. Weak mid-level perturbations pivoting around the trough will traverse the Great Basin into the northern Rockies, providing enough upper support for both dry and breezy conditions across the central Rockies, and thunderstorm activity over parts of the Northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. Across the central Rockies, sustained southwesterly surface winds may exceed 15 mph for several hours, amid 15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. Across the northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest, the lifting of mid-level moisture will encourage high-based thunderstorm development by afternoon. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles, suggesting that a combination of wet and dry thunderstorms are possible. With dry fuels in place, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...17z Update... Morning guidance shows stronger surface winds and continued dry/breezy conditions are likely over parts of southern UT and far eastern NV this afternoon. With gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 20%, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Have updated the western edge of the Elevated area for the most recent guidance. Otherwise, minimal changes were made for the latest guidance. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 07/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging builds over the remainder of the CONUS today. Weak mid-level perturbations pivoting around the trough will traverse the Great Basin into the northern Rockies, providing enough upper support for both dry and breezy conditions across the central Rockies, and thunderstorm activity over parts of the Northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. Across the central Rockies, sustained southwesterly surface winds may exceed 15 mph for several hours, amid 15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. Across the northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest, the lifting of mid-level moisture will encourage high-based thunderstorm development by afternoon. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles, suggesting that a combination of wet and dry thunderstorms are possible. With dry fuels in place, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...17z Update... Morning guidance shows stronger surface winds and continued dry/breezy conditions are likely over parts of southern UT and far eastern NV this afternoon. With gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 20%, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Have updated the western edge of the Elevated area for the most recent guidance. Otherwise, minimal changes were made for the latest guidance. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 07/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging builds over the remainder of the CONUS today. Weak mid-level perturbations pivoting around the trough will traverse the Great Basin into the northern Rockies, providing enough upper support for both dry and breezy conditions across the central Rockies, and thunderstorm activity over parts of the Northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. Across the central Rockies, sustained southwesterly surface winds may exceed 15 mph for several hours, amid 15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. Across the northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest, the lifting of mid-level moisture will encourage high-based thunderstorm development by afternoon. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles, suggesting that a combination of wet and dry thunderstorms are possible. With dry fuels in place, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...17z Update... Morning guidance shows stronger surface winds and continued dry/breezy conditions are likely over parts of southern UT and far eastern NV this afternoon. With gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 20%, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Have updated the western edge of the Elevated area for the most recent guidance. Otherwise, minimal changes were made for the latest guidance. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 07/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging builds over the remainder of the CONUS today. Weak mid-level perturbations pivoting around the trough will traverse the Great Basin into the northern Rockies, providing enough upper support for both dry and breezy conditions across the central Rockies, and thunderstorm activity over parts of the Northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. Across the central Rockies, sustained southwesterly surface winds may exceed 15 mph for several hours, amid 15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. Across the northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest, the lifting of mid-level moisture will encourage high-based thunderstorm development by afternoon. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles, suggesting that a combination of wet and dry thunderstorms are possible. With dry fuels in place, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...17z Update... Morning guidance shows stronger surface winds and continued dry/breezy conditions are likely over parts of southern UT and far eastern NV this afternoon. With gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 20%, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Have updated the western edge of the Elevated area for the most recent guidance. Otherwise, minimal changes were made for the latest guidance. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 07/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging builds over the remainder of the CONUS today. Weak mid-level perturbations pivoting around the trough will traverse the Great Basin into the northern Rockies, providing enough upper support for both dry and breezy conditions across the central Rockies, and thunderstorm activity over parts of the Northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. Across the central Rockies, sustained southwesterly surface winds may exceed 15 mph for several hours, amid 15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. Across the northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest, the lifting of mid-level moisture will encourage high-based thunderstorm development by afternoon. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles, suggesting that a combination of wet and dry thunderstorms are possible. With dry fuels in place, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...17z Update... Morning guidance shows stronger surface winds and continued dry/breezy conditions are likely over parts of southern UT and far eastern NV this afternoon. With gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 20%, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Have updated the western edge of the Elevated area for the most recent guidance. Otherwise, minimal changes were made for the latest guidance. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 07/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging builds over the remainder of the CONUS today. Weak mid-level perturbations pivoting around the trough will traverse the Great Basin into the northern Rockies, providing enough upper support for both dry and breezy conditions across the central Rockies, and thunderstorm activity over parts of the Northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. Across the central Rockies, sustained southwesterly surface winds may exceed 15 mph for several hours, amid 15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. Across the northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest, the lifting of mid-level moisture will encourage high-based thunderstorm development by afternoon. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles, suggesting that a combination of wet and dry thunderstorms are possible. With dry fuels in place, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...17z Update... Morning guidance shows stronger surface winds and continued dry/breezy conditions are likely over parts of southern UT and far eastern NV this afternoon. With gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 20%, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Have updated the western edge of the Elevated area for the most recent guidance. Otherwise, minimal changes were made for the latest guidance. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 07/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging builds over the remainder of the CONUS today. Weak mid-level perturbations pivoting around the trough will traverse the Great Basin into the northern Rockies, providing enough upper support for both dry and breezy conditions across the central Rockies, and thunderstorm activity over parts of the Northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. Across the central Rockies, sustained southwesterly surface winds may exceed 15 mph for several hours, amid 15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. Across the northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest, the lifting of mid-level moisture will encourage high-based thunderstorm development by afternoon. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles, suggesting that a combination of wet and dry thunderstorms are possible. With dry fuels in place, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more