Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... The general upper-level pattern over the next week will feature a trough in the Northeast, a ridge over much of the southern U.S. and Plains, and a weak trough off the West Coast. The Northeastern trough will weaken with time, before moving out of the region around next weekend. Models eventually develop a shortwave trough in the West, but this signal has been inconsistent in the past several runs. At the surface, high pressure will build into the Great Lakes and Northeast. This will progressively push a cold front farther south and west with time. While some severe risk is possible along the cold front, shear and buoyancy will be diminished with each successive day. With the front pushing modest moisture into the Rockies, convection is possible each day next week. Strong to potentially severe storms may occur with this activity, but weak shear beneath the upper ridge makes it unclear where the most intense storms would be. Furthermore, repeated days of convection will at some point adversely affect the quality of the low-level airmass. Predictability remains too low for highlights. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... The general upper-level pattern over the next week will feature a trough in the Northeast, a ridge over much of the southern U.S. and Plains, and a weak trough off the West Coast. The Northeastern trough will weaken with time, before moving out of the region around next weekend. Models eventually develop a shortwave trough in the West, but this signal has been inconsistent in the past several runs. At the surface, high pressure will build into the Great Lakes and Northeast. This will progressively push a cold front farther south and west with time. While some severe risk is possible along the cold front, shear and buoyancy will be diminished with each successive day. With the front pushing modest moisture into the Rockies, convection is possible each day next week. Strong to potentially severe storms may occur with this activity, but weak shear beneath the upper ridge makes it unclear where the most intense storms would be. Furthermore, repeated days of convection will at some point adversely affect the quality of the low-level airmass. Predictability remains too low for highlights. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... The general upper-level pattern over the next week will feature a trough in the Northeast, a ridge over much of the southern U.S. and Plains, and a weak trough off the West Coast. The Northeastern trough will weaken with time, before moving out of the region around next weekend. Models eventually develop a shortwave trough in the West, but this signal has been inconsistent in the past several runs. At the surface, high pressure will build into the Great Lakes and Northeast. This will progressively push a cold front farther south and west with time. While some severe risk is possible along the cold front, shear and buoyancy will be diminished with each successive day. With the front pushing modest moisture into the Rockies, convection is possible each day next week. Strong to potentially severe storms may occur with this activity, but weak shear beneath the upper ridge makes it unclear where the most intense storms would be. Furthermore, repeated days of convection will at some point adversely affect the quality of the low-level airmass. Predictability remains too low for highlights. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... The general upper-level pattern over the next week will feature a trough in the Northeast, a ridge over much of the southern U.S. and Plains, and a weak trough off the West Coast. The Northeastern trough will weaken with time, before moving out of the region around next weekend. Models eventually develop a shortwave trough in the West, but this signal has been inconsistent in the past several runs. At the surface, high pressure will build into the Great Lakes and Northeast. This will progressively push a cold front farther south and west with time. While some severe risk is possible along the cold front, shear and buoyancy will be diminished with each successive day. With the front pushing modest moisture into the Rockies, convection is possible each day next week. Strong to potentially severe storms may occur with this activity, but weak shear beneath the upper ridge makes it unclear where the most intense storms would be. Furthermore, repeated days of convection will at some point adversely affect the quality of the low-level airmass. Predictability remains too low for highlights. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana into the central High Plains as well as parts of the Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue across much of the central and southern U.S. on Tuesday. A broad upper trough will strengthen in the upper Great Lakes and New England. Weak troughing will push into the West. A shortwave trough will move into the southern Great Basin. At the surface, moisture will remain near the northern/central Rockies. A modest cold front will be draped across the central Plains into the Lower Great Lakes. ...Southern South Dakota...Nebraska...Mid-Mississippi Valley... Similar to previous days, the forecast is uncertain and will depend upon how convection evolves on Monday night into Tuesday morning. Current guidance shows an MCS weakening Tuesday morning in the MN/IA/WI vicinity. Where outflow from this sets up during the afternoon will be a focus for potential storm development during the afternoon. Farther west, the surface low and cold front will have slid farther south. The exact position of this boundary is another point of uncertainty in the forecast. While the strong to extreme buoyancy south of the boundaries will be similar to Monday, the stronger shear is expected to remain just along and north of these boundaries. Forcing for ascent will also be less clear than on Monday as well. The most likely area for storm initiation will be where the surface low intersects the cold front in Nebraska. There is also some potential for clusters of storms that develop in eastern Wyoming to progress along the surface boundary into Nebraska as well. This environment could support MCS development given the quick upscale growth of any convective cluster and a modestly increasing low-level jet in the evening. There is potentially a corridor of greater severe risk, but it remains too uncertain highlight at this time. ...Montana/Wyoming into western South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle... Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas given the modestly moist airmass remaining pushed against the higher terrain. With a shortwave trough moving into the Great Basin, smaller perturbations can be expected to move into the central/northern Rockies. Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible during the afternoon. 30-40 kts of effective shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, storms will be capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. ...Parts of Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... Given what could be a strong MCS/MCV moving out of the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, some severe risk could develop ahead of this feature Tuesday afternoon. This is currently minimal support for this scenario in guidance. Confidence is low. Model trends will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana into the central High Plains as well as parts of the Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue across much of the central and southern U.S. on Tuesday. A broad upper trough will strengthen in the upper Great Lakes and New England. Weak troughing will push into the West. A shortwave trough will move into the southern Great Basin. At the surface, moisture will remain near the northern/central Rockies. A modest cold front will be draped across the central Plains into the Lower Great Lakes. ...Southern South Dakota...Nebraska...Mid-Mississippi Valley... Similar to previous days, the forecast is uncertain and will depend upon how convection evolves on Monday night into Tuesday morning. Current guidance shows an MCS weakening Tuesday morning in the MN/IA/WI vicinity. Where outflow from this sets up during the afternoon will be a focus for potential storm development during the afternoon. Farther west, the surface low and cold front will have slid farther south. The exact position of this boundary is another point of uncertainty in the forecast. While the strong to extreme buoyancy south of the boundaries will be similar to Monday, the stronger shear is expected to remain just along and north of these boundaries. Forcing for ascent will also be less clear than on Monday as well. The most likely area for storm initiation will be where the surface low intersects the cold front in Nebraska. There is also some potential for clusters of storms that develop in eastern Wyoming to progress along the surface boundary into Nebraska as well. This environment could support MCS development given the quick upscale growth of any convective cluster and a modestly increasing low-level jet in the evening. There is potentially a corridor of greater severe risk, but it remains too uncertain highlight at this time. ...Montana/Wyoming into western South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle... Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas given the modestly moist airmass remaining pushed against the higher terrain. With a shortwave trough moving into the Great Basin, smaller perturbations can be expected to move into the central/northern Rockies. Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible during the afternoon. 30-40 kts of effective shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, storms will be capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. ...Parts of Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... Given what could be a strong MCS/MCV moving out of the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, some severe risk could develop ahead of this feature Tuesday afternoon. This is currently minimal support for this scenario in guidance. Confidence is low. Model trends will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana into the central High Plains as well as parts of the Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue across much of the central and southern U.S. on Tuesday. A broad upper trough will strengthen in the upper Great Lakes and New England. Weak troughing will push into the West. A shortwave trough will move into the southern Great Basin. At the surface, moisture will remain near the northern/central Rockies. A modest cold front will be draped across the central Plains into the Lower Great Lakes. ...Southern South Dakota...Nebraska...Mid-Mississippi Valley... Similar to previous days, the forecast is uncertain and will depend upon how convection evolves on Monday night into Tuesday morning. Current guidance shows an MCS weakening Tuesday morning in the MN/IA/WI vicinity. Where outflow from this sets up during the afternoon will be a focus for potential storm development during the afternoon. Farther west, the surface low and cold front will have slid farther south. The exact position of this boundary is another point of uncertainty in the forecast. While the strong to extreme buoyancy south of the boundaries will be similar to Monday, the stronger shear is expected to remain just along and north of these boundaries. Forcing for ascent will also be less clear than on Monday as well. The most likely area for storm initiation will be where the surface low intersects the cold front in Nebraska. There is also some potential for clusters of storms that develop in eastern Wyoming to progress along the surface boundary into Nebraska as well. This environment could support MCS development given the quick upscale growth of any convective cluster and a modestly increasing low-level jet in the evening. There is potentially a corridor of greater severe risk, but it remains too uncertain highlight at this time. ...Montana/Wyoming into western South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle... Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas given the modestly moist airmass remaining pushed against the higher terrain. With a shortwave trough moving into the Great Basin, smaller perturbations can be expected to move into the central/northern Rockies. Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible during the afternoon. 30-40 kts of effective shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, storms will be capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. ...Parts of Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... Given what could be a strong MCS/MCV moving out of the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, some severe risk could develop ahead of this feature Tuesday afternoon. This is currently minimal support for this scenario in guidance. Confidence is low. Model trends will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana into the central High Plains as well as parts of the Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue across much of the central and southern U.S. on Tuesday. A broad upper trough will strengthen in the upper Great Lakes and New England. Weak troughing will push into the West. A shortwave trough will move into the southern Great Basin. At the surface, moisture will remain near the northern/central Rockies. A modest cold front will be draped across the central Plains into the Lower Great Lakes. ...Southern South Dakota...Nebraska...Mid-Mississippi Valley... Similar to previous days, the forecast is uncertain and will depend upon how convection evolves on Monday night into Tuesday morning. Current guidance shows an MCS weakening Tuesday morning in the MN/IA/WI vicinity. Where outflow from this sets up during the afternoon will be a focus for potential storm development during the afternoon. Farther west, the surface low and cold front will have slid farther south. The exact position of this boundary is another point of uncertainty in the forecast. While the strong to extreme buoyancy south of the boundaries will be similar to Monday, the stronger shear is expected to remain just along and north of these boundaries. Forcing for ascent will also be less clear than on Monday as well. The most likely area for storm initiation will be where the surface low intersects the cold front in Nebraska. There is also some potential for clusters of storms that develop in eastern Wyoming to progress along the surface boundary into Nebraska as well. This environment could support MCS development given the quick upscale growth of any convective cluster and a modestly increasing low-level jet in the evening. There is potentially a corridor of greater severe risk, but it remains too uncertain highlight at this time. ...Montana/Wyoming into western South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle... Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas given the modestly moist airmass remaining pushed against the higher terrain. With a shortwave trough moving into the Great Basin, smaller perturbations can be expected to move into the central/northern Rockies. Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible during the afternoon. 30-40 kts of effective shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, storms will be capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. ...Parts of Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... Given what could be a strong MCS/MCV moving out of the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, some severe risk could develop ahead of this feature Tuesday afternoon. This is currently minimal support for this scenario in guidance. Confidence is low. Model trends will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana into the central High Plains as well as parts of the Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue across much of the central and southern U.S. on Tuesday. A broad upper trough will strengthen in the upper Great Lakes and New England. Weak troughing will push into the West. A shortwave trough will move into the southern Great Basin. At the surface, moisture will remain near the northern/central Rockies. A modest cold front will be draped across the central Plains into the Lower Great Lakes. ...Southern South Dakota...Nebraska...Mid-Mississippi Valley... Similar to previous days, the forecast is uncertain and will depend upon how convection evolves on Monday night into Tuesday morning. Current guidance shows an MCS weakening Tuesday morning in the MN/IA/WI vicinity. Where outflow from this sets up during the afternoon will be a focus for potential storm development during the afternoon. Farther west, the surface low and cold front will have slid farther south. The exact position of this boundary is another point of uncertainty in the forecast. While the strong to extreme buoyancy south of the boundaries will be similar to Monday, the stronger shear is expected to remain just along and north of these boundaries. Forcing for ascent will also be less clear than on Monday as well. The most likely area for storm initiation will be where the surface low intersects the cold front in Nebraska. There is also some potential for clusters of storms that develop in eastern Wyoming to progress along the surface boundary into Nebraska as well. This environment could support MCS development given the quick upscale growth of any convective cluster and a modestly increasing low-level jet in the evening. There is potentially a corridor of greater severe risk, but it remains too uncertain highlight at this time. ...Montana/Wyoming into western South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle... Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas given the modestly moist airmass remaining pushed against the higher terrain. With a shortwave trough moving into the Great Basin, smaller perturbations can be expected to move into the central/northern Rockies. Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible during the afternoon. 30-40 kts of effective shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, storms will be capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. ...Parts of Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... Given what could be a strong MCS/MCV moving out of the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, some severe risk could develop ahead of this feature Tuesday afternoon. This is currently minimal support for this scenario in guidance. Confidence is low. Model trends will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana into the central High Plains as well as parts of the Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue across much of the central and southern U.S. on Tuesday. A broad upper trough will strengthen in the upper Great Lakes and New England. Weak troughing will push into the West. A shortwave trough will move into the southern Great Basin. At the surface, moisture will remain near the northern/central Rockies. A modest cold front will be draped across the central Plains into the Lower Great Lakes. ...Southern South Dakota...Nebraska...Mid-Mississippi Valley... Similar to previous days, the forecast is uncertain and will depend upon how convection evolves on Monday night into Tuesday morning. Current guidance shows an MCS weakening Tuesday morning in the MN/IA/WI vicinity. Where outflow from this sets up during the afternoon will be a focus for potential storm development during the afternoon. Farther west, the surface low and cold front will have slid farther south. The exact position of this boundary is another point of uncertainty in the forecast. While the strong to extreme buoyancy south of the boundaries will be similar to Monday, the stronger shear is expected to remain just along and north of these boundaries. Forcing for ascent will also be less clear than on Monday as well. The most likely area for storm initiation will be where the surface low intersects the cold front in Nebraska. There is also some potential for clusters of storms that develop in eastern Wyoming to progress along the surface boundary into Nebraska as well. This environment could support MCS development given the quick upscale growth of any convective cluster and a modestly increasing low-level jet in the evening. There is potentially a corridor of greater severe risk, but it remains too uncertain highlight at this time. ...Montana/Wyoming into western South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle... Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas given the modestly moist airmass remaining pushed against the higher terrain. With a shortwave trough moving into the Great Basin, smaller perturbations can be expected to move into the central/northern Rockies. Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible during the afternoon. 30-40 kts of effective shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, storms will be capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. ...Parts of Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... Given what could be a strong MCS/MCV moving out of the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, some severe risk could develop ahead of this feature Tuesday afternoon. This is currently minimal support for this scenario in guidance. Confidence is low. Model trends will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana into the central High Plains as well as parts of the Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue across much of the central and southern U.S. on Tuesday. A broad upper trough will strengthen in the upper Great Lakes and New England. Weak troughing will push into the West. A shortwave trough will move into the southern Great Basin. At the surface, moisture will remain near the northern/central Rockies. A modest cold front will be draped across the central Plains into the Lower Great Lakes. ...Southern South Dakota...Nebraska...Mid-Mississippi Valley... Similar to previous days, the forecast is uncertain and will depend upon how convection evolves on Monday night into Tuesday morning. Current guidance shows an MCS weakening Tuesday morning in the MN/IA/WI vicinity. Where outflow from this sets up during the afternoon will be a focus for potential storm development during the afternoon. Farther west, the surface low and cold front will have slid farther south. The exact position of this boundary is another point of uncertainty in the forecast. While the strong to extreme buoyancy south of the boundaries will be similar to Monday, the stronger shear is expected to remain just along and north of these boundaries. Forcing for ascent will also be less clear than on Monday as well. The most likely area for storm initiation will be where the surface low intersects the cold front in Nebraska. There is also some potential for clusters of storms that develop in eastern Wyoming to progress along the surface boundary into Nebraska as well. This environment could support MCS development given the quick upscale growth of any convective cluster and a modestly increasing low-level jet in the evening. There is potentially a corridor of greater severe risk, but it remains too uncertain highlight at this time. ...Montana/Wyoming into western South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle... Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas given the modestly moist airmass remaining pushed against the higher terrain. With a shortwave trough moving into the Great Basin, smaller perturbations can be expected to move into the central/northern Rockies. Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible during the afternoon. 30-40 kts of effective shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, storms will be capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. ...Parts of Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... Given what could be a strong MCS/MCV moving out of the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, some severe risk could develop ahead of this feature Tuesday afternoon. This is currently minimal support for this scenario in guidance. Confidence is low. Model trends will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana into the central High Plains as well as parts of the Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue across much of the central and southern U.S. on Tuesday. A broad upper trough will strengthen in the upper Great Lakes and New England. Weak troughing will push into the West. A shortwave trough will move into the southern Great Basin. At the surface, moisture will remain near the northern/central Rockies. A modest cold front will be draped across the central Plains into the Lower Great Lakes. ...Southern South Dakota...Nebraska...Mid-Mississippi Valley... Similar to previous days, the forecast is uncertain and will depend upon how convection evolves on Monday night into Tuesday morning. Current guidance shows an MCS weakening Tuesday morning in the MN/IA/WI vicinity. Where outflow from this sets up during the afternoon will be a focus for potential storm development during the afternoon. Farther west, the surface low and cold front will have slid farther south. The exact position of this boundary is another point of uncertainty in the forecast. While the strong to extreme buoyancy south of the boundaries will be similar to Monday, the stronger shear is expected to remain just along and north of these boundaries. Forcing for ascent will also be less clear than on Monday as well. The most likely area for storm initiation will be where the surface low intersects the cold front in Nebraska. There is also some potential for clusters of storms that develop in eastern Wyoming to progress along the surface boundary into Nebraska as well. This environment could support MCS development given the quick upscale growth of any convective cluster and a modestly increasing low-level jet in the evening. There is potentially a corridor of greater severe risk, but it remains too uncertain highlight at this time. ...Montana/Wyoming into western South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle... Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas given the modestly moist airmass remaining pushed against the higher terrain. With a shortwave trough moving into the Great Basin, smaller perturbations can be expected to move into the central/northern Rockies. Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible during the afternoon. 30-40 kts of effective shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, storms will be capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. ...Parts of Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... Given what could be a strong MCS/MCV moving out of the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, some severe risk could develop ahead of this feature Tuesday afternoon. This is currently minimal support for this scenario in guidance. Confidence is low. Model trends will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana into the central High Plains as well as parts of the Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue across much of the central and southern U.S. on Tuesday. A broad upper trough will strengthen in the upper Great Lakes and New England. Weak troughing will push into the West. A shortwave trough will move into the southern Great Basin. At the surface, moisture will remain near the northern/central Rockies. A modest cold front will be draped across the central Plains into the Lower Great Lakes. ...Southern South Dakota...Nebraska...Mid-Mississippi Valley... Similar to previous days, the forecast is uncertain and will depend upon how convection evolves on Monday night into Tuesday morning. Current guidance shows an MCS weakening Tuesday morning in the MN/IA/WI vicinity. Where outflow from this sets up during the afternoon will be a focus for potential storm development during the afternoon. Farther west, the surface low and cold front will have slid farther south. The exact position of this boundary is another point of uncertainty in the forecast. While the strong to extreme buoyancy south of the boundaries will be similar to Monday, the stronger shear is expected to remain just along and north of these boundaries. Forcing for ascent will also be less clear than on Monday as well. The most likely area for storm initiation will be where the surface low intersects the cold front in Nebraska. There is also some potential for clusters of storms that develop in eastern Wyoming to progress along the surface boundary into Nebraska as well. This environment could support MCS development given the quick upscale growth of any convective cluster and a modestly increasing low-level jet in the evening. There is potentially a corridor of greater severe risk, but it remains too uncertain highlight at this time. ...Montana/Wyoming into western South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle... Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas given the modestly moist airmass remaining pushed against the higher terrain. With a shortwave trough moving into the Great Basin, smaller perturbations can be expected to move into the central/northern Rockies. Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible during the afternoon. 30-40 kts of effective shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, storms will be capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. ...Parts of Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... Given what could be a strong MCS/MCV moving out of the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, some severe risk could develop ahead of this feature Tuesday afternoon. This is currently minimal support for this scenario in guidance. Confidence is low. Model trends will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana into the central High Plains as well as parts of the Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue across much of the central and southern U.S. on Tuesday. A broad upper trough will strengthen in the upper Great Lakes and New England. Weak troughing will push into the West. A shortwave trough will move into the southern Great Basin. At the surface, moisture will remain near the northern/central Rockies. A modest cold front will be draped across the central Plains into the Lower Great Lakes. ...Southern South Dakota...Nebraska...Mid-Mississippi Valley... Similar to previous days, the forecast is uncertain and will depend upon how convection evolves on Monday night into Tuesday morning. Current guidance shows an MCS weakening Tuesday morning in the MN/IA/WI vicinity. Where outflow from this sets up during the afternoon will be a focus for potential storm development during the afternoon. Farther west, the surface low and cold front will have slid farther south. The exact position of this boundary is another point of uncertainty in the forecast. While the strong to extreme buoyancy south of the boundaries will be similar to Monday, the stronger shear is expected to remain just along and north of these boundaries. Forcing for ascent will also be less clear than on Monday as well. The most likely area for storm initiation will be where the surface low intersects the cold front in Nebraska. There is also some potential for clusters of storms that develop in eastern Wyoming to progress along the surface boundary into Nebraska as well. This environment could support MCS development given the quick upscale growth of any convective cluster and a modestly increasing low-level jet in the evening. There is potentially a corridor of greater severe risk, but it remains too uncertain highlight at this time. ...Montana/Wyoming into western South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle... Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas given the modestly moist airmass remaining pushed against the higher terrain. With a shortwave trough moving into the Great Basin, smaller perturbations can be expected to move into the central/northern Rockies. Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible during the afternoon. 30-40 kts of effective shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, storms will be capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. ...Parts of Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... Given what could be a strong MCS/MCV moving out of the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, some severe risk could develop ahead of this feature Tuesday afternoon. This is currently minimal support for this scenario in guidance. Confidence is low. Model trends will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana into the central High Plains as well as parts of the Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue across much of the central and southern U.S. on Tuesday. A broad upper trough will strengthen in the upper Great Lakes and New England. Weak troughing will push into the West. A shortwave trough will move into the southern Great Basin. At the surface, moisture will remain near the northern/central Rockies. A modest cold front will be draped across the central Plains into the Lower Great Lakes. ...Southern South Dakota...Nebraska...Mid-Mississippi Valley... Similar to previous days, the forecast is uncertain and will depend upon how convection evolves on Monday night into Tuesday morning. Current guidance shows an MCS weakening Tuesday morning in the MN/IA/WI vicinity. Where outflow from this sets up during the afternoon will be a focus for potential storm development during the afternoon. Farther west, the surface low and cold front will have slid farther south. The exact position of this boundary is another point of uncertainty in the forecast. While the strong to extreme buoyancy south of the boundaries will be similar to Monday, the stronger shear is expected to remain just along and north of these boundaries. Forcing for ascent will also be less clear than on Monday as well. The most likely area for storm initiation will be where the surface low intersects the cold front in Nebraska. There is also some potential for clusters of storms that develop in eastern Wyoming to progress along the surface boundary into Nebraska as well. This environment could support MCS development given the quick upscale growth of any convective cluster and a modestly increasing low-level jet in the evening. There is potentially a corridor of greater severe risk, but it remains too uncertain highlight at this time. ...Montana/Wyoming into western South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle... Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas given the modestly moist airmass remaining pushed against the higher terrain. With a shortwave trough moving into the Great Basin, smaller perturbations can be expected to move into the central/northern Rockies. Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible during the afternoon. 30-40 kts of effective shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, storms will be capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. ...Parts of Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... Given what could be a strong MCS/MCV moving out of the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, some severe risk could develop ahead of this feature Tuesday afternoon. This is currently minimal support for this scenario in guidance. Confidence is low. Model trends will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana into the central High Plains as well as parts of the Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue across much of the central and southern U.S. on Tuesday. A broad upper trough will strengthen in the upper Great Lakes and New England. Weak troughing will push into the West. A shortwave trough will move into the southern Great Basin. At the surface, moisture will remain near the northern/central Rockies. A modest cold front will be draped across the central Plains into the Lower Great Lakes. ...Southern South Dakota...Nebraska...Mid-Mississippi Valley... Similar to previous days, the forecast is uncertain and will depend upon how convection evolves on Monday night into Tuesday morning. Current guidance shows an MCS weakening Tuesday morning in the MN/IA/WI vicinity. Where outflow from this sets up during the afternoon will be a focus for potential storm development during the afternoon. Farther west, the surface low and cold front will have slid farther south. The exact position of this boundary is another point of uncertainty in the forecast. While the strong to extreme buoyancy south of the boundaries will be similar to Monday, the stronger shear is expected to remain just along and north of these boundaries. Forcing for ascent will also be less clear than on Monday as well. The most likely area for storm initiation will be where the surface low intersects the cold front in Nebraska. There is also some potential for clusters of storms that develop in eastern Wyoming to progress along the surface boundary into Nebraska as well. This environment could support MCS development given the quick upscale growth of any convective cluster and a modestly increasing low-level jet in the evening. There is potentially a corridor of greater severe risk, but it remains too uncertain highlight at this time. ...Montana/Wyoming into western South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle... Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas given the modestly moist airmass remaining pushed against the higher terrain. With a shortwave trough moving into the Great Basin, smaller perturbations can be expected to move into the central/northern Rockies. Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible during the afternoon. 30-40 kts of effective shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, storms will be capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. ...Parts of Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... Given what could be a strong MCS/MCV moving out of the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, some severe risk could develop ahead of this feature Tuesday afternoon. This is currently minimal support for this scenario in guidance. Confidence is low. Model trends will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana into the central High Plains as well as parts of the Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue across much of the central and southern U.S. on Tuesday. A broad upper trough will strengthen in the upper Great Lakes and New England. Weak troughing will push into the West. A shortwave trough will move into the southern Great Basin. At the surface, moisture will remain near the northern/central Rockies. A modest cold front will be draped across the central Plains into the Lower Great Lakes. ...Southern South Dakota...Nebraska...Mid-Mississippi Valley... Similar to previous days, the forecast is uncertain and will depend upon how convection evolves on Monday night into Tuesday morning. Current guidance shows an MCS weakening Tuesday morning in the MN/IA/WI vicinity. Where outflow from this sets up during the afternoon will be a focus for potential storm development during the afternoon. Farther west, the surface low and cold front will have slid farther south. The exact position of this boundary is another point of uncertainty in the forecast. While the strong to extreme buoyancy south of the boundaries will be similar to Monday, the stronger shear is expected to remain just along and north of these boundaries. Forcing for ascent will also be less clear than on Monday as well. The most likely area for storm initiation will be where the surface low intersects the cold front in Nebraska. There is also some potential for clusters of storms that develop in eastern Wyoming to progress along the surface boundary into Nebraska as well. This environment could support MCS development given the quick upscale growth of any convective cluster and a modestly increasing low-level jet in the evening. There is potentially a corridor of greater severe risk, but it remains too uncertain highlight at this time. ...Montana/Wyoming into western South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle... Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas given the modestly moist airmass remaining pushed against the higher terrain. With a shortwave trough moving into the Great Basin, smaller perturbations can be expected to move into the central/northern Rockies. Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible during the afternoon. 30-40 kts of effective shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, storms will be capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. ...Parts of Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... Given what could be a strong MCS/MCV moving out of the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, some severe risk could develop ahead of this feature Tuesday afternoon. This is currently minimal support for this scenario in guidance. Confidence is low. Model trends will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana into the central High Plains as well as parts of the Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue across much of the central and southern U.S. on Tuesday. A broad upper trough will strengthen in the upper Great Lakes and New England. Weak troughing will push into the West. A shortwave trough will move into the southern Great Basin. At the surface, moisture will remain near the northern/central Rockies. A modest cold front will be draped across the central Plains into the Lower Great Lakes. ...Southern South Dakota...Nebraska...Mid-Mississippi Valley... Similar to previous days, the forecast is uncertain and will depend upon how convection evolves on Monday night into Tuesday morning. Current guidance shows an MCS weakening Tuesday morning in the MN/IA/WI vicinity. Where outflow from this sets up during the afternoon will be a focus for potential storm development during the afternoon. Farther west, the surface low and cold front will have slid farther south. The exact position of this boundary is another point of uncertainty in the forecast. While the strong to extreme buoyancy south of the boundaries will be similar to Monday, the stronger shear is expected to remain just along and north of these boundaries. Forcing for ascent will also be less clear than on Monday as well. The most likely area for storm initiation will be where the surface low intersects the cold front in Nebraska. There is also some potential for clusters of storms that develop in eastern Wyoming to progress along the surface boundary into Nebraska as well. This environment could support MCS development given the quick upscale growth of any convective cluster and a modestly increasing low-level jet in the evening. There is potentially a corridor of greater severe risk, but it remains too uncertain highlight at this time. ...Montana/Wyoming into western South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle... Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas given the modestly moist airmass remaining pushed against the higher terrain. With a shortwave trough moving into the Great Basin, smaller perturbations can be expected to move into the central/northern Rockies. Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible during the afternoon. 30-40 kts of effective shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, storms will be capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. ...Parts of Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... Given what could be a strong MCS/MCV moving out of the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, some severe risk could develop ahead of this feature Tuesday afternoon. This is currently minimal support for this scenario in guidance. Confidence is low. Model trends will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 07/27/2025 Read more

MD 1805 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 547... FOR EASTERN ND AND NORTHERN MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1805 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Areas affected...eastern ND and northern MN Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 547... Valid 270609Z - 270745Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 547 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging wind threat from strong to sporadic severe gusts should persist through dawn across eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota. Southward expansion of WW 547 and/or an additional Severe Thunderstorm Watch is possible. DISCUSSION...A trio of measured severe gusts from 65-70 mph have occurred with a northwest/southeast-oriented cluster that has progressed into eastern ND. With flanking convective development to its southeast, an orientation pivot may continue and potentially yield more of a north/south alignment in the next few hours. This emerging MCS should progress through the instability axis that extends east across northern MN. Enhanced mid-level westerlies within and in the wake of this cluster, per the BIS VWP time-series, suggests it may remain organized for the next several hours. The 21Z GSL-MPAS and 00Z NSSL-MPAS runs appear to be reasonably handling the ongoing cluster and are more aggressive with longevity of the damaging wind threat relative to recent HRRR/RRFS runs. ..Grams/Hart.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 47619912 47719949 48089922 48619756 48799685 48439394 47859308 47249298 47169305 46869338 46699467 46669574 46719675 47619912 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0547 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 547 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE SDY TO 20 W ISN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1806. ..GRAMS..07/27/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 547 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC007-029-069-077-087-089-107-113-119-125-135-270840- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELTRAMI CLEARWATER KITTSON LAKE OF THE WOODS MAHNOMEN MARSHALL NORMAN PENNINGTON POLK RED LAKE ROSEAU NDC003-005-007-009-013-017-019-023-025-027-031-035-039-049-053- 055-057-061-063-065-067-069-071-075-079-083-089-091-095-097-099- 101-103-105-270840- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES BENSON BILLINGS BOTTINEAU BURKE CASS CAVALIER DIVIDE DUNN EDDY FOSTER GRAND FORKS GRIGGS MCHENRY MCKENZIE Read more