Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...17z Update... Morning guidance shows stronger surface winds and continued dry/breezy conditions are likely over parts of southern UT and far eastern NV this afternoon. With gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 20%, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Have updated the western edge of the Elevated area for the most recent guidance. Otherwise, minimal changes were made for the latest guidance. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 07/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging builds over the remainder of the CONUS today. Weak mid-level perturbations pivoting around the trough will traverse the Great Basin into the northern Rockies, providing enough upper support for both dry and breezy conditions across the central Rockies, and thunderstorm activity over parts of the Northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. Across the central Rockies, sustained southwesterly surface winds may exceed 15 mph for several hours, amid 15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. Across the northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest, the lifting of mid-level moisture will encourage high-based thunderstorm development by afternoon. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles, suggesting that a combination of wet and dry thunderstorms are possible. With dry fuels in place, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the upper Mississippi Valley into the western Great Lakes. Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of the northern Plains, central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and eastern North Carolina. ...Northern MN This Morning... A persistent bowing MCS is over northern MN headed toward the Arrowhead region. These storms have produced locally damaging wind gusts through much of the night, but have shown signs of weakening on the north end of the bow during the past 1-2 hours. One intense cells remains on the south end of the bow, headed toward the Hibbing vicinity. This activity may continue to pose a risk of damaging winds or hail for awhile this morning. ...Upper MS Valley into western Great Lakes... A convectively aided shortwave trough is currently tracking across ND. This feature will move into northern MN this afternoon with an associated surface cold front sagging into central MN. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong heating ahead of the front will result in a very unstable airmass this afternoon, with MLCAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg. A consensus of CAM solutions suggests the development of a few discrete supercells along the front by mid/late afternoon. These storms will be capable of very large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes during the first couple of hours. After that, upscale growth is likely with damaging winds becoming the main concern as storms build southeastward across southern MN and into central WI. ...Mid Atlantic/Central Appalachians... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected once again today from parts of PA/WV into VA/NC. Similar to previous days, mid-level lapse rates will be weak and considerable mid-level moisture will limit overall severe concerns. However, the strongest cells will be capable of occasional gusty/damaging winds. ...MT... Strong heating will occur this afternoon across much of central/eastern MT, where deep boundary-layer mixing will lead to inverted-v profiles. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along a corridor from southwest into central MT by late afternoon. These high-based storms may pose a risk of a few damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Grams.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the upper Mississippi Valley into the western Great Lakes. Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of the northern Plains, central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and eastern North Carolina. ...Northern MN This Morning... A persistent bowing MCS is over northern MN headed toward the Arrowhead region. These storms have produced locally damaging wind gusts through much of the night, but have shown signs of weakening on the north end of the bow during the past 1-2 hours. One intense cells remains on the south end of the bow, headed toward the Hibbing vicinity. This activity may continue to pose a risk of damaging winds or hail for awhile this morning. ...Upper MS Valley into western Great Lakes... A convectively aided shortwave trough is currently tracking across ND. This feature will move into northern MN this afternoon with an associated surface cold front sagging into central MN. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong heating ahead of the front will result in a very unstable airmass this afternoon, with MLCAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg. A consensus of CAM solutions suggests the development of a few discrete supercells along the front by mid/late afternoon. These storms will be capable of very large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes during the first couple of hours. After that, upscale growth is likely with damaging winds becoming the main concern as storms build southeastward across southern MN and into central WI. ...Mid Atlantic/Central Appalachians... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected once again today from parts of PA/WV into VA/NC. Similar to previous days, mid-level lapse rates will be weak and considerable mid-level moisture will limit overall severe concerns. However, the strongest cells will be capable of occasional gusty/damaging winds. ...MT... Strong heating will occur this afternoon across much of central/eastern MT, where deep boundary-layer mixing will lead to inverted-v profiles. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along a corridor from southwest into central MT by late afternoon. These high-based storms may pose a risk of a few damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Grams.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the upper Mississippi Valley into the western Great Lakes. Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of the northern Plains, central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and eastern North Carolina. ...Northern MN This Morning... A persistent bowing MCS is over northern MN headed toward the Arrowhead region. These storms have produced locally damaging wind gusts through much of the night, but have shown signs of weakening on the north end of the bow during the past 1-2 hours. One intense cells remains on the south end of the bow, headed toward the Hibbing vicinity. This activity may continue to pose a risk of damaging winds or hail for awhile this morning. ...Upper MS Valley into western Great Lakes... A convectively aided shortwave trough is currently tracking across ND. This feature will move into northern MN this afternoon with an associated surface cold front sagging into central MN. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong heating ahead of the front will result in a very unstable airmass this afternoon, with MLCAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg. A consensus of CAM solutions suggests the development of a few discrete supercells along the front by mid/late afternoon. These storms will be capable of very large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes during the first couple of hours. After that, upscale growth is likely with damaging winds becoming the main concern as storms build southeastward across southern MN and into central WI. ...Mid Atlantic/Central Appalachians... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected once again today from parts of PA/WV into VA/NC. Similar to previous days, mid-level lapse rates will be weak and considerable mid-level moisture will limit overall severe concerns. However, the strongest cells will be capable of occasional gusty/damaging winds. ...MT... Strong heating will occur this afternoon across much of central/eastern MT, where deep boundary-layer mixing will lead to inverted-v profiles. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along a corridor from southwest into central MT by late afternoon. These high-based storms may pose a risk of a few damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Grams.. 07/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the upper Mississippi Valley into the western Great Lakes. Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of the northern Plains, central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and eastern North Carolina. ...Northern MN This Morning... A persistent bowing MCS is over northern MN headed toward the Arrowhead region. These storms have produced locally damaging wind gusts through much of the night, but have shown signs of weakening on the north end of the bow during the past 1-2 hours. One intense cells remains on the south end of the bow, headed toward the Hibbing vicinity. This activity may continue to pose a risk of damaging winds or hail for awhile this morning. ...Upper MS Valley into western Great Lakes... A convectively aided shortwave trough is currently tracking across ND. This feature will move into northern MN this afternoon with an associated surface cold front sagging into central MN. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong heating ahead of the front will result in a very unstable airmass this afternoon, with MLCAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg. A consensus of CAM solutions suggests the development of a few discrete supercells along the front by mid/late afternoon. These storms will be capable of very large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes during the first couple of hours. After that, upscale growth is likely with damaging winds becoming the main concern as storms build southeastward across southern MN and into central WI. ...Mid Atlantic/Central Appalachians... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected once again today from parts of PA/WV into VA/NC. Similar to previous days, mid-level lapse rates will be weak and considerable mid-level moisture will limit overall severe concerns. However, the strongest cells will be capable of occasional gusty/damaging winds. ...MT... Strong heating will occur this afternoon across much of central/eastern MT, where deep boundary-layer mixing will lead to inverted-v profiles. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along a corridor from southwest into central MT by late afternoon. These high-based storms may pose a risk of a few damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Grams.. 07/27/2025 Read more

WW 0547 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 547 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW HCO TO 35 NNE JMS TO 45 SSW DVL TO 55 E MOT TO 70 NE MOT. WW 547 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 271200Z. ..GRAMS..07/27/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 547 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC005-019-027-069-071-079-095-271200- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENSON CAVALIER EDDY PIERCE RAMSEY ROLETTE TOWNER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 547 SEVERE TSTM MN ND 270445Z - 271200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 547 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Minnesota Northern North Dakota * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1145 PM until 700 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...The line of strong to severe thunderstorms moving eastward across northeast MT is expected to continue across northern ND tonight. Damaging gusts are possible as this line moves eastward. Another area of strong to severe thunderstorms is currently moving northward into more of central ND. These storms will likely continue northward/northeastward into eastern ND and adjacent northwest MN tonight. Large hail and damaging gusts are possible with these storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west southwest of Williston ND to 45 miles east of Thief River Falls MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 545...WW 546... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0547 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 547 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW HCO TO 25 NNE JMS TO 35 NNE BIS TO 10 E MOT TO 55 NNE MOT. ..GRAMS..07/27/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 547 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC007-029-077-271140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELTRAMI CLEARWATER LAKE OF THE WOODS NDC005-009-019-027-031-049-069-071-079-083-095-103-271140- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENSON BOTTINEAU CAVALIER EDDY FOSTER MCHENRY PIERCE RAMSEY ROLETTE SHERIDAN TOWNER WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1808 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 547... FOR NORTH-CENTRAL ND
Mesoscale Discussion 1808 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Areas affected...north-central ND Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 547... Valid 270921Z - 271015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 547 continues. SUMMARY...Severe wind threat should diminish in coverage and intensity as it shifts northeastward across north-central North Dakota over the next 2-3 hours. DISCUSSION...A consolidated but shrinking QLCS is progressing east-northeastward from western into north-central ND. The more productive portion with measured severe gusts has been across the southern flank, where greater MLCAPE had been present. But the southern flank is eroding due to a combination of warming/drying 700-mb temperatures and impingement on prior overturned air. NDAWN surface observations confirm about a one county-wide corridor of mid to upper 60s surface dew points exists ahead of the line into north-central ND. As this overturns, severe wind magnitudes should diminish after daybreak. ..Grams.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 49019947 48059975 47510034 47330115 47420149 48050166 48570166 49010192 49019947 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0547 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 547 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE DIK TO 50 E ISN TO 60 NNE ISN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS 1807 AND 1808. ..GRAMS..07/27/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 547 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC007-029-069-077-087-089-107-113-119-125-135-271040- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELTRAMI CLEARWATER KITTSON LAKE OF THE WOODS MAHNOMEN MARSHALL NORMAN PENNINGTON POLK RED LAKE ROSEAU NDC003-005-009-013-015-017-019-027-031-035-037-039-049-055-057- 059-061-063-065-067-069-071-075-079-083-091-095-097-099-101-103- 271040- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES BENSON BOTTINEAU BURKE BURLEIGH CASS CAVALIER EDDY FOSTER GRAND FORKS GRANT GRIGGS MCHENRY MCLEAN MERCER Read more

MD 1807 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 547... FOR NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1807 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Areas affected...northwest/north-central MN Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 547... Valid 270823Z - 271000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 547 continues. SUMMARY...An increasingly marginal/isolated severe wind threat is anticipated through mid-morning. Downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch is unlikely, unless renewed intensification can occur. DISCUSSION...The ongoing cluster across northwest MN had earlier produced several measured severe gusts across a portion of the Red River Valley, centered on the greater Grand Forks area. Early evening MPAS-NSSL/GSL runs have correlated well with the pivot and change in orientation of the cluster over the past couple hours, much more aligned relative to recent HRRR/RRFS runs. Overall intensification appears to have trended down though with shrinking areal extent of the deep convective core and general IR cloud-top warming/relaxing radar reflectivity gradient. But with 40-50 kt mid-level southwesterlies in MVX VWP data, it is possible that restrengthening could occur amid MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg still present into north-central MN. Still, large-scale ascent appears to be focused to the west/northwest ahead of a larger MCS in western ND. This suggests the MN portion of the severe threat will probably remain marginal/fairly isolated through/beyond daybreak. ..Grams.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... LAT...LON 47879636 48229595 48199498 48219400 48149327 47659303 47299291 46849305 46579410 46719555 47029651 47879636 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

MD 1806 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 546...547... FOR WESTERN TO NORTH-CENTRAL ND AND FAR NORTHWEST SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1806 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Areas affected...western to north-central ND and far northwest SD Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 546...547... Valid 270709Z - 270845Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 546, 547 continues. SUMMARY...Sporadic severe gusts and hail will remain possible through about dawn, mainly across parts of western to north-central North Dakota. DISCUSSION...A messy/complex convective setup is ongoing with a myriad of line segments, clusters, and a pair of splitting cells. A broken line has spread into far western ND ahead of an MCV over far northeast MT, while a small cluster is just ahead of the line in southwest ND/far northwest SD. Both have produced marginal severe gusts in the past hour and may continue to do so for the next few hours. Downstream surface observations suggest the plume of upper 60s surface dew points has become confined in a pocket across southwest ND arcing into north-central ND, in the wake of earlier convective outflows. The right-mover of a pair of splitting cells anchored long the north end of the buoyancy plume across north-central ND has had mid-level rotation and may produce isolated severe hail as well. ..Grams.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 49009967 48619960 48190008 47590068 46960109 46160125 45600167 45540276 45610337 45970345 46570338 47560356 48180391 48470371 48690229 49009967 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0547 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 547 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW DIK TO 20 E ISN TO 55 NNW ISN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1807. ..GRAMS..07/27/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 547 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC007-029-069-077-087-089-107-113-119-125-135-270940- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELTRAMI CLEARWATER KITTSON LAKE OF THE WOODS MAHNOMEN MARSHALL NORMAN PENNINGTON POLK RED LAKE ROSEAU NDC003-005-009-013-015-017-019-023-025-027-031-035-037-039-049- 053-055-057-059-061-063-065-067-069-071-075-079-083-089-091-095- 097-099-101-103-105-270940- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES BENSON BOTTINEAU BURKE BURLEIGH CASS CAVALIER DIVIDE DUNN EDDY FOSTER GRAND FORKS GRANT GRIGGS MCHENRY Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... The general upper-level pattern over the next week will feature a trough in the Northeast, a ridge over much of the southern U.S. and Plains, and a weak trough off the West Coast. The Northeastern trough will weaken with time, before moving out of the region around next weekend. Models eventually develop a shortwave trough in the West, but this signal has been inconsistent in the past several runs. At the surface, high pressure will build into the Great Lakes and Northeast. This will progressively push a cold front farther south and west with time. While some severe risk is possible along the cold front, shear and buoyancy will be diminished with each successive day. With the front pushing modest moisture into the Rockies, convection is possible each day next week. Strong to potentially severe storms may occur with this activity, but weak shear beneath the upper ridge makes it unclear where the most intense storms would be. Furthermore, repeated days of convection will at some point adversely affect the quality of the low-level airmass. Predictability remains too low for highlights. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... The general upper-level pattern over the next week will feature a trough in the Northeast, a ridge over much of the southern U.S. and Plains, and a weak trough off the West Coast. The Northeastern trough will weaken with time, before moving out of the region around next weekend. Models eventually develop a shortwave trough in the West, but this signal has been inconsistent in the past several runs. At the surface, high pressure will build into the Great Lakes and Northeast. This will progressively push a cold front farther south and west with time. While some severe risk is possible along the cold front, shear and buoyancy will be diminished with each successive day. With the front pushing modest moisture into the Rockies, convection is possible each day next week. Strong to potentially severe storms may occur with this activity, but weak shear beneath the upper ridge makes it unclear where the most intense storms would be. Furthermore, repeated days of convection will at some point adversely affect the quality of the low-level airmass. Predictability remains too low for highlights. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... The general upper-level pattern over the next week will feature a trough in the Northeast, a ridge over much of the southern U.S. and Plains, and a weak trough off the West Coast. The Northeastern trough will weaken with time, before moving out of the region around next weekend. Models eventually develop a shortwave trough in the West, but this signal has been inconsistent in the past several runs. At the surface, high pressure will build into the Great Lakes and Northeast. This will progressively push a cold front farther south and west with time. While some severe risk is possible along the cold front, shear and buoyancy will be diminished with each successive day. With the front pushing modest moisture into the Rockies, convection is possible each day next week. Strong to potentially severe storms may occur with this activity, but weak shear beneath the upper ridge makes it unclear where the most intense storms would be. Furthermore, repeated days of convection will at some point adversely affect the quality of the low-level airmass. Predictability remains too low for highlights. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... The general upper-level pattern over the next week will feature a trough in the Northeast, a ridge over much of the southern U.S. and Plains, and a weak trough off the West Coast. The Northeastern trough will weaken with time, before moving out of the region around next weekend. Models eventually develop a shortwave trough in the West, but this signal has been inconsistent in the past several runs. At the surface, high pressure will build into the Great Lakes and Northeast. This will progressively push a cold front farther south and west with time. While some severe risk is possible along the cold front, shear and buoyancy will be diminished with each successive day. With the front pushing modest moisture into the Rockies, convection is possible each day next week. Strong to potentially severe storms may occur with this activity, but weak shear beneath the upper ridge makes it unclear where the most intense storms would be. Furthermore, repeated days of convection will at some point adversely affect the quality of the low-level airmass. Predictability remains too low for highlights. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... The general upper-level pattern over the next week will feature a trough in the Northeast, a ridge over much of the southern U.S. and Plains, and a weak trough off the West Coast. The Northeastern trough will weaken with time, before moving out of the region around next weekend. Models eventually develop a shortwave trough in the West, but this signal has been inconsistent in the past several runs. At the surface, high pressure will build into the Great Lakes and Northeast. This will progressively push a cold front farther south and west with time. While some severe risk is possible along the cold front, shear and buoyancy will be diminished with each successive day. With the front pushing modest moisture into the Rockies, convection is possible each day next week. Strong to potentially severe storms may occur with this activity, but weak shear beneath the upper ridge makes it unclear where the most intense storms would be. Furthermore, repeated days of convection will at some point adversely affect the quality of the low-level airmass. Predictability remains too low for highlights. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... The general upper-level pattern over the next week will feature a trough in the Northeast, a ridge over much of the southern U.S. and Plains, and a weak trough off the West Coast. The Northeastern trough will weaken with time, before moving out of the region around next weekend. Models eventually develop a shortwave trough in the West, but this signal has been inconsistent in the past several runs. At the surface, high pressure will build into the Great Lakes and Northeast. This will progressively push a cold front farther south and west with time. While some severe risk is possible along the cold front, shear and buoyancy will be diminished with each successive day. With the front pushing modest moisture into the Rockies, convection is possible each day next week. Strong to potentially severe storms may occur with this activity, but weak shear beneath the upper ridge makes it unclear where the most intense storms would be. Furthermore, repeated days of convection will at some point adversely affect the quality of the low-level airmass. Predictability remains too low for highlights. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... The general upper-level pattern over the next week will feature a trough in the Northeast, a ridge over much of the southern U.S. and Plains, and a weak trough off the West Coast. The Northeastern trough will weaken with time, before moving out of the region around next weekend. Models eventually develop a shortwave trough in the West, but this signal has been inconsistent in the past several runs. At the surface, high pressure will build into the Great Lakes and Northeast. This will progressively push a cold front farther south and west with time. While some severe risk is possible along the cold front, shear and buoyancy will be diminished with each successive day. With the front pushing modest moisture into the Rockies, convection is possible each day next week. Strong to potentially severe storms may occur with this activity, but weak shear beneath the upper ridge makes it unclear where the most intense storms would be. Furthermore, repeated days of convection will at some point adversely affect the quality of the low-level airmass. Predictability remains too low for highlights. Read more