Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Upper troughing will persist along the West Coast as the upper ridge continues to build over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Sunday). Mid-level moisture along the upper trough will overspread a dry boundary layer, characterized by inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings). As such, a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms is anticipated during the afternoon and evening hours across portions of the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies. Given dry fuels over the region and associated potential for lightning induced ignitions, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Upper troughing will persist along the West Coast as the upper ridge continues to build over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Sunday). Mid-level moisture along the upper trough will overspread a dry boundary layer, characterized by inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings). As such, a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms is anticipated during the afternoon and evening hours across portions of the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies. Given dry fuels over the region and associated potential for lightning induced ignitions, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Upper troughing will persist along the West Coast as the upper ridge continues to build over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Sunday). Mid-level moisture along the upper trough will overspread a dry boundary layer, characterized by inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings). As such, a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms is anticipated during the afternoon and evening hours across portions of the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies. Given dry fuels over the region and associated potential for lightning induced ignitions, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will overspread much of the western U.S. while upper ridging persists east of the Rockies today. Multiple embedded mid-level impulses will traverse the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies during the afternoon, encouraging dry and breezy conditions across parts of the Great Basin into the Four Corners region, as well as thunderstorm development into the Pacific Northwest. By afternoon peak heating, southwesterly sustained surface winds will reach 15-25 mph as RH dips to 10-20 percent across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners. Elevated highlights have been maintained given the presence of dry fuels. Farther to the northwest, from Northeast California to the Idaho/Montana border, adequate mid-level moisture and deep-layer ascent will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer. High-based thunderstorms will produce a mix of wet and dry strikes atop receptive fuels, warranting the continuation of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will overspread much of the western U.S. while upper ridging persists east of the Rockies today. Multiple embedded mid-level impulses will traverse the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies during the afternoon, encouraging dry and breezy conditions across parts of the Great Basin into the Four Corners region, as well as thunderstorm development into the Pacific Northwest. By afternoon peak heating, southwesterly sustained surface winds will reach 15-25 mph as RH dips to 10-20 percent across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners. Elevated highlights have been maintained given the presence of dry fuels. Farther to the northwest, from Northeast California to the Idaho/Montana border, adequate mid-level moisture and deep-layer ascent will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer. High-based thunderstorms will produce a mix of wet and dry strikes atop receptive fuels, warranting the continuation of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will overspread much of the western U.S. while upper ridging persists east of the Rockies today. Multiple embedded mid-level impulses will traverse the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies during the afternoon, encouraging dry and breezy conditions across parts of the Great Basin into the Four Corners region, as well as thunderstorm development into the Pacific Northwest. By afternoon peak heating, southwesterly sustained surface winds will reach 15-25 mph as RH dips to 10-20 percent across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners. Elevated highlights have been maintained given the presence of dry fuels. Farther to the northwest, from Northeast California to the Idaho/Montana border, adequate mid-level moisture and deep-layer ascent will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer. High-based thunderstorms will produce a mix of wet and dry strikes atop receptive fuels, warranting the continuation of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will overspread much of the western U.S. while upper ridging persists east of the Rockies today. Multiple embedded mid-level impulses will traverse the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies during the afternoon, encouraging dry and breezy conditions across parts of the Great Basin into the Four Corners region, as well as thunderstorm development into the Pacific Northwest. By afternoon peak heating, southwesterly sustained surface winds will reach 15-25 mph as RH dips to 10-20 percent across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners. Elevated highlights have been maintained given the presence of dry fuels. Farther to the northwest, from Northeast California to the Idaho/Montana border, adequate mid-level moisture and deep-layer ascent will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer. High-based thunderstorms will produce a mix of wet and dry strikes atop receptive fuels, warranting the continuation of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will overspread much of the western U.S. while upper ridging persists east of the Rockies today. Multiple embedded mid-level impulses will traverse the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies during the afternoon, encouraging dry and breezy conditions across parts of the Great Basin into the Four Corners region, as well as thunderstorm development into the Pacific Northwest. By afternoon peak heating, southwesterly sustained surface winds will reach 15-25 mph as RH dips to 10-20 percent across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners. Elevated highlights have been maintained given the presence of dry fuels. Farther to the northwest, from Northeast California to the Idaho/Montana border, adequate mid-level moisture and deep-layer ascent will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer. High-based thunderstorms will produce a mix of wet and dry strikes atop receptive fuels, warranting the continuation of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will overspread much of the western U.S. while upper ridging persists east of the Rockies today. Multiple embedded mid-level impulses will traverse the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies during the afternoon, encouraging dry and breezy conditions across parts of the Great Basin into the Four Corners region, as well as thunderstorm development into the Pacific Northwest. By afternoon peak heating, southwesterly sustained surface winds will reach 15-25 mph as RH dips to 10-20 percent across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners. Elevated highlights have been maintained given the presence of dry fuels. Farther to the northwest, from Northeast California to the Idaho/Montana border, adequate mid-level moisture and deep-layer ascent will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer. High-based thunderstorms will produce a mix of wet and dry strikes atop receptive fuels, warranting the continuation of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England region. ...Dakotas into Upper Midwest... Forecast uncertainty remains high across these areas. Convection within the Dakotas late Saturday is generally expected to progress into portions of early Sunday morning. The timing and intensify of this early convection is not clear, but will be one of key factors for what occurs in the afternoon. Current guidance would suggest this activity will most likely move through northern parts of Minnesota. Depending on the timing, enough destabilization could occur ahead of it and lead to an increased threat for severe winds into Arrowhead. To the west/south of this activity, a weak surface front/surface trough will likely intersect with outflow from morning activity. This is more likely to be positioned from eastern parts of the Dakotas into central Minnesota. Strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop south of the outflow (3000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE). The broader region will have 40-50 kts of effective shear. Convergence at the surface will be weak and temperatures aloft will be warm enough that capping will be a concern. Any lift from a mid-level perturbation has been rather variable in terms of strength and timing within guidance. While the environment will certainly be favorable for more than just a marginal threat of severe gusts, the above factors greatly limit confidence in highlighting the corridor of greatest risk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England... A small-scale shortwave trough is expected to move through these regions in the morning. Cloud cover and precipitation appears probable and will have impacts on where the greatest surface heating and destabilization can occur by the afternoon. Portions of southern New England appear most likely to struggle to destabilize, though shear would be sufficient for strong to marginally severe storms. In the Mid-Atlantic, surface heating is more likely and storms will be able to develop within the Blue Ridge and move southeastward. Some clustering may occur given around 20 kts of effective shear. Temperatures in the 90s F and MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg will support a threat for damaging winds. Higher wind probabilities are possible if confidence increases in where clustering will occur. ..Wendt.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England region. ...Dakotas into Upper Midwest... Forecast uncertainty remains high across these areas. Convection within the Dakotas late Saturday is generally expected to progress into portions of early Sunday morning. The timing and intensify of this early convection is not clear, but will be one of key factors for what occurs in the afternoon. Current guidance would suggest this activity will most likely move through northern parts of Minnesota. Depending on the timing, enough destabilization could occur ahead of it and lead to an increased threat for severe winds into Arrowhead. To the west/south of this activity, a weak surface front/surface trough will likely intersect with outflow from morning activity. This is more likely to be positioned from eastern parts of the Dakotas into central Minnesota. Strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop south of the outflow (3000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE). The broader region will have 40-50 kts of effective shear. Convergence at the surface will be weak and temperatures aloft will be warm enough that capping will be a concern. Any lift from a mid-level perturbation has been rather variable in terms of strength and timing within guidance. While the environment will certainly be favorable for more than just a marginal threat of severe gusts, the above factors greatly limit confidence in highlighting the corridor of greatest risk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England... A small-scale shortwave trough is expected to move through these regions in the morning. Cloud cover and precipitation appears probable and will have impacts on where the greatest surface heating and destabilization can occur by the afternoon. Portions of southern New England appear most likely to struggle to destabilize, though shear would be sufficient for strong to marginally severe storms. In the Mid-Atlantic, surface heating is more likely and storms will be able to develop within the Blue Ridge and move southeastward. Some clustering may occur given around 20 kts of effective shear. Temperatures in the 90s F and MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg will support a threat for damaging winds. Higher wind probabilities are possible if confidence increases in where clustering will occur. ..Wendt.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England region. ...Dakotas into Upper Midwest... Forecast uncertainty remains high across these areas. Convection within the Dakotas late Saturday is generally expected to progress into portions of early Sunday morning. The timing and intensify of this early convection is not clear, but will be one of key factors for what occurs in the afternoon. Current guidance would suggest this activity will most likely move through northern parts of Minnesota. Depending on the timing, enough destabilization could occur ahead of it and lead to an increased threat for severe winds into Arrowhead. To the west/south of this activity, a weak surface front/surface trough will likely intersect with outflow from morning activity. This is more likely to be positioned from eastern parts of the Dakotas into central Minnesota. Strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop south of the outflow (3000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE). The broader region will have 40-50 kts of effective shear. Convergence at the surface will be weak and temperatures aloft will be warm enough that capping will be a concern. Any lift from a mid-level perturbation has been rather variable in terms of strength and timing within guidance. While the environment will certainly be favorable for more than just a marginal threat of severe gusts, the above factors greatly limit confidence in highlighting the corridor of greatest risk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England... A small-scale shortwave trough is expected to move through these regions in the morning. Cloud cover and precipitation appears probable and will have impacts on where the greatest surface heating and destabilization can occur by the afternoon. Portions of southern New England appear most likely to struggle to destabilize, though shear would be sufficient for strong to marginally severe storms. In the Mid-Atlantic, surface heating is more likely and storms will be able to develop within the Blue Ridge and move southeastward. Some clustering may occur given around 20 kts of effective shear. Temperatures in the 90s F and MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg will support a threat for damaging winds. Higher wind probabilities are possible if confidence increases in where clustering will occur. ..Wendt.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England region. ...Dakotas into Upper Midwest... Forecast uncertainty remains high across these areas. Convection within the Dakotas late Saturday is generally expected to progress into portions of early Sunday morning. The timing and intensify of this early convection is not clear, but will be one of key factors for what occurs in the afternoon. Current guidance would suggest this activity will most likely move through northern parts of Minnesota. Depending on the timing, enough destabilization could occur ahead of it and lead to an increased threat for severe winds into Arrowhead. To the west/south of this activity, a weak surface front/surface trough will likely intersect with outflow from morning activity. This is more likely to be positioned from eastern parts of the Dakotas into central Minnesota. Strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop south of the outflow (3000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE). The broader region will have 40-50 kts of effective shear. Convergence at the surface will be weak and temperatures aloft will be warm enough that capping will be a concern. Any lift from a mid-level perturbation has been rather variable in terms of strength and timing within guidance. While the environment will certainly be favorable for more than just a marginal threat of severe gusts, the above factors greatly limit confidence in highlighting the corridor of greatest risk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England... A small-scale shortwave trough is expected to move through these regions in the morning. Cloud cover and precipitation appears probable and will have impacts on where the greatest surface heating and destabilization can occur by the afternoon. Portions of southern New England appear most likely to struggle to destabilize, though shear would be sufficient for strong to marginally severe storms. In the Mid-Atlantic, surface heating is more likely and storms will be able to develop within the Blue Ridge and move southeastward. Some clustering may occur given around 20 kts of effective shear. Temperatures in the 90s F and MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg will support a threat for damaging winds. Higher wind probabilities are possible if confidence increases in where clustering will occur. ..Wendt.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England region. ...Dakotas into Upper Midwest... Forecast uncertainty remains high across these areas. Convection within the Dakotas late Saturday is generally expected to progress into portions of early Sunday morning. The timing and intensify of this early convection is not clear, but will be one of key factors for what occurs in the afternoon. Current guidance would suggest this activity will most likely move through northern parts of Minnesota. Depending on the timing, enough destabilization could occur ahead of it and lead to an increased threat for severe winds into Arrowhead. To the west/south of this activity, a weak surface front/surface trough will likely intersect with outflow from morning activity. This is more likely to be positioned from eastern parts of the Dakotas into central Minnesota. Strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop south of the outflow (3000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE). The broader region will have 40-50 kts of effective shear. Convergence at the surface will be weak and temperatures aloft will be warm enough that capping will be a concern. Any lift from a mid-level perturbation has been rather variable in terms of strength and timing within guidance. While the environment will certainly be favorable for more than just a marginal threat of severe gusts, the above factors greatly limit confidence in highlighting the corridor of greatest risk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England... A small-scale shortwave trough is expected to move through these regions in the morning. Cloud cover and precipitation appears probable and will have impacts on where the greatest surface heating and destabilization can occur by the afternoon. Portions of southern New England appear most likely to struggle to destabilize, though shear would be sufficient for strong to marginally severe storms. In the Mid-Atlantic, surface heating is more likely and storms will be able to develop within the Blue Ridge and move southeastward. Some clustering may occur given around 20 kts of effective shear. Temperatures in the 90s F and MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg will support a threat for damaging winds. Higher wind probabilities are possible if confidence increases in where clustering will occur. ..Wendt.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England region. ...Dakotas into Upper Midwest... Forecast uncertainty remains high across these areas. Convection within the Dakotas late Saturday is generally expected to progress into portions of early Sunday morning. The timing and intensify of this early convection is not clear, but will be one of key factors for what occurs in the afternoon. Current guidance would suggest this activity will most likely move through northern parts of Minnesota. Depending on the timing, enough destabilization could occur ahead of it and lead to an increased threat for severe winds into Arrowhead. To the west/south of this activity, a weak surface front/surface trough will likely intersect with outflow from morning activity. This is more likely to be positioned from eastern parts of the Dakotas into central Minnesota. Strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop south of the outflow (3000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE). The broader region will have 40-50 kts of effective shear. Convergence at the surface will be weak and temperatures aloft will be warm enough that capping will be a concern. Any lift from a mid-level perturbation has been rather variable in terms of strength and timing within guidance. While the environment will certainly be favorable for more than just a marginal threat of severe gusts, the above factors greatly limit confidence in highlighting the corridor of greatest risk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England... A small-scale shortwave trough is expected to move through these regions in the morning. Cloud cover and precipitation appears probable and will have impacts on where the greatest surface heating and destabilization can occur by the afternoon. Portions of southern New England appear most likely to struggle to destabilize, though shear would be sufficient for strong to marginally severe storms. In the Mid-Atlantic, surface heating is more likely and storms will be able to develop within the Blue Ridge and move southeastward. Some clustering may occur given around 20 kts of effective shear. Temperatures in the 90s F and MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg will support a threat for damaging winds. Higher wind probabilities are possible if confidence increases in where clustering will occur. ..Wendt.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper-level cyclone over the southeast U.S. will move little on Saturday, as a broad upper-level trough persists along the West Coast. A modest belt of stronger mid-level westerlies will extend across the northern CONUS. A quasi-stationary surface front will extend east-west across the northern Ohio Valley and southeast across the mid-Atlantic. ...MT east across the northern/central Plains... Embedded impulses within the western U.S. upper trough, most notably now moving northeast across UT, will pivot east across MT and the northern Plains during the day Saturday. Storms may be in progress Saturday morning, with additional development along a surface trough across western SD southward into the central High Plains as large-scale ascent overspreads the area. Storms over western SD should evolve upscale over time while moving east/northeast, with an increasing risk for damaging winds, especially across the Slight Risk area, where strong instability with eastward extent (MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg across) will be in place. Deep-layer shear will be supportive of supercell potential with any semi-discrete storm that develops, with an attendant risk for large hail. More isolated storms that develop along the surface trough across western NE/northeast CO will also have the potential for strong/severe gusts within a very deep/well-mixed boundary layer. Isolated stronger storms will also be possible across MT, where weak instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote some potential for strong/severe gusts. ...Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic Region... A moist air mass (low-mid 70s surface dew points) will remain in place south of the quasi-stationary front during the day. Morning storms will likely be ongoing at 12z Saturday over northern portions of MO/IL/IN, with some diurnal uptick in coverage/intensity during the afternoon as a convectively augmented mid-level impulse moves east across this area. Twenty to 30 kts of deep-layer shear will result in organized updrafts with a risk for isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps hail during the afternoon. Isolated storms will also be possible across the mid-Atlantic, where moderate/strong mixed-layer instability and modest west-northwest mid-level flow will support the potential for strong gusts. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper-level cyclone over the southeast U.S. will move little on Saturday, as a broad upper-level trough persists along the West Coast. A modest belt of stronger mid-level westerlies will extend across the northern CONUS. A quasi-stationary surface front will extend east-west across the northern Ohio Valley and southeast across the mid-Atlantic. ...MT east across the northern/central Plains... Embedded impulses within the western U.S. upper trough, most notably now moving northeast across UT, will pivot east across MT and the northern Plains during the day Saturday. Storms may be in progress Saturday morning, with additional development along a surface trough across western SD southward into the central High Plains as large-scale ascent overspreads the area. Storms over western SD should evolve upscale over time while moving east/northeast, with an increasing risk for damaging winds, especially across the Slight Risk area, where strong instability with eastward extent (MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg across) will be in place. Deep-layer shear will be supportive of supercell potential with any semi-discrete storm that develops, with an attendant risk for large hail. More isolated storms that develop along the surface trough across western NE/northeast CO will also have the potential for strong/severe gusts within a very deep/well-mixed boundary layer. Isolated stronger storms will also be possible across MT, where weak instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote some potential for strong/severe gusts. ...Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic Region... A moist air mass (low-mid 70s surface dew points) will remain in place south of the quasi-stationary front during the day. Morning storms will likely be ongoing at 12z Saturday over northern portions of MO/IL/IN, with some diurnal uptick in coverage/intensity during the afternoon as a convectively augmented mid-level impulse moves east across this area. Twenty to 30 kts of deep-layer shear will result in organized updrafts with a risk for isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps hail during the afternoon. Isolated storms will also be possible across the mid-Atlantic, where moderate/strong mixed-layer instability and modest west-northwest mid-level flow will support the potential for strong gusts. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper-level cyclone over the southeast U.S. will move little on Saturday, as a broad upper-level trough persists along the West Coast. A modest belt of stronger mid-level westerlies will extend across the northern CONUS. A quasi-stationary surface front will extend east-west across the northern Ohio Valley and southeast across the mid-Atlantic. ...MT east across the northern/central Plains... Embedded impulses within the western U.S. upper trough, most notably now moving northeast across UT, will pivot east across MT and the northern Plains during the day Saturday. Storms may be in progress Saturday morning, with additional development along a surface trough across western SD southward into the central High Plains as large-scale ascent overspreads the area. Storms over western SD should evolve upscale over time while moving east/northeast, with an increasing risk for damaging winds, especially across the Slight Risk area, where strong instability with eastward extent (MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg across) will be in place. Deep-layer shear will be supportive of supercell potential with any semi-discrete storm that develops, with an attendant risk for large hail. More isolated storms that develop along the surface trough across western NE/northeast CO will also have the potential for strong/severe gusts within a very deep/well-mixed boundary layer. Isolated stronger storms will also be possible across MT, where weak instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote some potential for strong/severe gusts. ...Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic Region... A moist air mass (low-mid 70s surface dew points) will remain in place south of the quasi-stationary front during the day. Morning storms will likely be ongoing at 12z Saturday over northern portions of MO/IL/IN, with some diurnal uptick in coverage/intensity during the afternoon as a convectively augmented mid-level impulse moves east across this area. Twenty to 30 kts of deep-layer shear will result in organized updrafts with a risk for isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps hail during the afternoon. Isolated storms will also be possible across the mid-Atlantic, where moderate/strong mixed-layer instability and modest west-northwest mid-level flow will support the potential for strong gusts. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper-level cyclone over the southeast U.S. will move little on Saturday, as a broad upper-level trough persists along the West Coast. A modest belt of stronger mid-level westerlies will extend across the northern CONUS. A quasi-stationary surface front will extend east-west across the northern Ohio Valley and southeast across the mid-Atlantic. ...MT east across the northern/central Plains... Embedded impulses within the western U.S. upper trough, most notably now moving northeast across UT, will pivot east across MT and the northern Plains during the day Saturday. Storms may be in progress Saturday morning, with additional development along a surface trough across western SD southward into the central High Plains as large-scale ascent overspreads the area. Storms over western SD should evolve upscale over time while moving east/northeast, with an increasing risk for damaging winds, especially across the Slight Risk area, where strong instability with eastward extent (MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg across) will be in place. Deep-layer shear will be supportive of supercell potential with any semi-discrete storm that develops, with an attendant risk for large hail. More isolated storms that develop along the surface trough across western NE/northeast CO will also have the potential for strong/severe gusts within a very deep/well-mixed boundary layer. Isolated stronger storms will also be possible across MT, where weak instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote some potential for strong/severe gusts. ...Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic Region... A moist air mass (low-mid 70s surface dew points) will remain in place south of the quasi-stationary front during the day. Morning storms will likely be ongoing at 12z Saturday over northern portions of MO/IL/IN, with some diurnal uptick in coverage/intensity during the afternoon as a convectively augmented mid-level impulse moves east across this area. Twenty to 30 kts of deep-layer shear will result in organized updrafts with a risk for isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps hail during the afternoon. Isolated storms will also be possible across the mid-Atlantic, where moderate/strong mixed-layer instability and modest west-northwest mid-level flow will support the potential for strong gusts. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper-level cyclone over the southeast U.S. will move little on Saturday, as a broad upper-level trough persists along the West Coast. A modest belt of stronger mid-level westerlies will extend across the northern CONUS. A quasi-stationary surface front will extend east-west across the northern Ohio Valley and southeast across the mid-Atlantic. ...MT east across the northern/central Plains... Embedded impulses within the western U.S. upper trough, most notably now moving northeast across UT, will pivot east across MT and the northern Plains during the day Saturday. Storms may be in progress Saturday morning, with additional development along a surface trough across western SD southward into the central High Plains as large-scale ascent overspreads the area. Storms over western SD should evolve upscale over time while moving east/northeast, with an increasing risk for damaging winds, especially across the Slight Risk area, where strong instability with eastward extent (MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg across) will be in place. Deep-layer shear will be supportive of supercell potential with any semi-discrete storm that develops, with an attendant risk for large hail. More isolated storms that develop along the surface trough across western NE/northeast CO will also have the potential for strong/severe gusts within a very deep/well-mixed boundary layer. Isolated stronger storms will also be possible across MT, where weak instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote some potential for strong/severe gusts. ...Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic Region... A moist air mass (low-mid 70s surface dew points) will remain in place south of the quasi-stationary front during the day. Morning storms will likely be ongoing at 12z Saturday over northern portions of MO/IL/IN, with some diurnal uptick in coverage/intensity during the afternoon as a convectively augmented mid-level impulse moves east across this area. Twenty to 30 kts of deep-layer shear will result in organized updrafts with a risk for isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps hail during the afternoon. Isolated storms will also be possible across the mid-Atlantic, where moderate/strong mixed-layer instability and modest west-northwest mid-level flow will support the potential for strong gusts. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 Read more