Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening Saturday, across the Mid-Missouri Valley and in eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple tornadic storms may occur in eastern Nebraska to western Iowa, with isolated severe significant severe hail and wind possible in the northern Great Plains. ...Mid-MO Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough currently centered near the Four Corners will progress northeast into parts of the central Great Plains to Upper Midwest by Saturday afternoon. This trough should contain multiple embedded impulses that are convectively enhanced from D1 convection over the High Plains. The greatest severe threat will likely emanate out of one such MCV as it progresses towards the Mid-MO Valley towards peak heating. While mid-level lapse rates will be weaker in vicinity of the MCV, ample low-level flow should be relatively strong ahead of the broader trough. A confined corridor of moderate to large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg), aided by greater low-level moisture along a residual frontal zone, should develop from the Ozark Plateau northwest into the Mid-MO Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the MCV. At least a few of these should develop into supercells given the enhanced low-level SRH. Potential for a couple tornadic storms along with a risk for severe wind/hail should develop during the late afternoon through about dusk. This corridor will probably remain focused on the mesoscale as highlighted by a relatively confined level 2-SLGT. Strong low-level shear will exist with northeast extent in the Upper Midwest, but forecast soundings indicate convection will largely remain elevated, suggesting a more marginal severe hail/wind threat Saturday night. ...Northern Great Plains... A shortwave trough will move northeast across the Pacific Northwest into the southern SK vicinity by early Sunday. A pair of lee cyclones should develop near the Canadian Rockies and over the northern High Plains before tracking eastward into MB to the central Dakotas as a pronounced cold front accelerates eastward Saturday night. Multiple corridors of thunderstorms will likely develop during the late afternoon along the cold front and a lee trough, over southern to eastern MT and the western Dakotas. The degree of buoyancy with western extent into MT is somewhat uncertain where large-scale ascent will initially be greatest. But a plume of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid very steep mid-level lapse rates should develop from the central/western Dakotas into a part of eastern MT. Strengthening mid to upper-level flow with the approaching shortwave trough will yield potential for high-based supercells, conditionally favoring very large hail. 12Z HREF guidance signals convection largely forming west of the larger buoyancy plume and impinging on it during the evening. This suggests that a cluster to linear mode may occur relatively quickly with cold pools spreading east-northeast in the western to central Dakotas. Small-scale bowing structures may develop, locally enhancing severe wind intensity during the evening. Have expanded both level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south and east to account for greater confidence in a mixed severe hail/wind threat occurring. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening Saturday, across the Mid-Missouri Valley and in eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple tornadic storms may occur in eastern Nebraska to western Iowa, with isolated severe significant severe hail and wind possible in the northern Great Plains. ...Mid-MO Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough currently centered near the Four Corners will progress northeast into parts of the central Great Plains to Upper Midwest by Saturday afternoon. This trough should contain multiple embedded impulses that are convectively enhanced from D1 convection over the High Plains. The greatest severe threat will likely emanate out of one such MCV as it progresses towards the Mid-MO Valley towards peak heating. While mid-level lapse rates will be weaker in vicinity of the MCV, ample low-level flow should be relatively strong ahead of the broader trough. A confined corridor of moderate to large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg), aided by greater low-level moisture along a residual frontal zone, should develop from the Ozark Plateau northwest into the Mid-MO Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the MCV. At least a few of these should develop into supercells given the enhanced low-level SRH. Potential for a couple tornadic storms along with a risk for severe wind/hail should develop during the late afternoon through about dusk. This corridor will probably remain focused on the mesoscale as highlighted by a relatively confined level 2-SLGT. Strong low-level shear will exist with northeast extent in the Upper Midwest, but forecast soundings indicate convection will largely remain elevated, suggesting a more marginal severe hail/wind threat Saturday night. ...Northern Great Plains... A shortwave trough will move northeast across the Pacific Northwest into the southern SK vicinity by early Sunday. A pair of lee cyclones should develop near the Canadian Rockies and over the northern High Plains before tracking eastward into MB to the central Dakotas as a pronounced cold front accelerates eastward Saturday night. Multiple corridors of thunderstorms will likely develop during the late afternoon along the cold front and a lee trough, over southern to eastern MT and the western Dakotas. The degree of buoyancy with western extent into MT is somewhat uncertain where large-scale ascent will initially be greatest. But a plume of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid very steep mid-level lapse rates should develop from the central/western Dakotas into a part of eastern MT. Strengthening mid to upper-level flow with the approaching shortwave trough will yield potential for high-based supercells, conditionally favoring very large hail. 12Z HREF guidance signals convection largely forming west of the larger buoyancy plume and impinging on it during the evening. This suggests that a cluster to linear mode may occur relatively quickly with cold pools spreading east-northeast in the western to central Dakotas. Small-scale bowing structures may develop, locally enhancing severe wind intensity during the evening. Have expanded both level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south and east to account for greater confidence in a mixed severe hail/wind threat occurring. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening Saturday, across the Mid-Missouri Valley and in eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple tornadic storms may occur in eastern Nebraska to western Iowa, with isolated severe significant severe hail and wind possible in the northern Great Plains. ...Mid-MO Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough currently centered near the Four Corners will progress northeast into parts of the central Great Plains to Upper Midwest by Saturday afternoon. This trough should contain multiple embedded impulses that are convectively enhanced from D1 convection over the High Plains. The greatest severe threat will likely emanate out of one such MCV as it progresses towards the Mid-MO Valley towards peak heating. While mid-level lapse rates will be weaker in vicinity of the MCV, ample low-level flow should be relatively strong ahead of the broader trough. A confined corridor of moderate to large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg), aided by greater low-level moisture along a residual frontal zone, should develop from the Ozark Plateau northwest into the Mid-MO Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the MCV. At least a few of these should develop into supercells given the enhanced low-level SRH. Potential for a couple tornadic storms along with a risk for severe wind/hail should develop during the late afternoon through about dusk. This corridor will probably remain focused on the mesoscale as highlighted by a relatively confined level 2-SLGT. Strong low-level shear will exist with northeast extent in the Upper Midwest, but forecast soundings indicate convection will largely remain elevated, suggesting a more marginal severe hail/wind threat Saturday night. ...Northern Great Plains... A shortwave trough will move northeast across the Pacific Northwest into the southern SK vicinity by early Sunday. A pair of lee cyclones should develop near the Canadian Rockies and over the northern High Plains before tracking eastward into MB to the central Dakotas as a pronounced cold front accelerates eastward Saturday night. Multiple corridors of thunderstorms will likely develop during the late afternoon along the cold front and a lee trough, over southern to eastern MT and the western Dakotas. The degree of buoyancy with western extent into MT is somewhat uncertain where large-scale ascent will initially be greatest. But a plume of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid very steep mid-level lapse rates should develop from the central/western Dakotas into a part of eastern MT. Strengthening mid to upper-level flow with the approaching shortwave trough will yield potential for high-based supercells, conditionally favoring very large hail. 12Z HREF guidance signals convection largely forming west of the larger buoyancy plume and impinging on it during the evening. This suggests that a cluster to linear mode may occur relatively quickly with cold pools spreading east-northeast in the western to central Dakotas. Small-scale bowing structures may develop, locally enhancing severe wind intensity during the evening. Have expanded both level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south and east to account for greater confidence in a mixed severe hail/wind threat occurring. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening Saturday, across the Mid-Missouri Valley and in eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple tornadic storms may occur in eastern Nebraska to western Iowa, with isolated severe significant severe hail and wind possible in the northern Great Plains. ...Mid-MO Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough currently centered near the Four Corners will progress northeast into parts of the central Great Plains to Upper Midwest by Saturday afternoon. This trough should contain multiple embedded impulses that are convectively enhanced from D1 convection over the High Plains. The greatest severe threat will likely emanate out of one such MCV as it progresses towards the Mid-MO Valley towards peak heating. While mid-level lapse rates will be weaker in vicinity of the MCV, ample low-level flow should be relatively strong ahead of the broader trough. A confined corridor of moderate to large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg), aided by greater low-level moisture along a residual frontal zone, should develop from the Ozark Plateau northwest into the Mid-MO Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the MCV. At least a few of these should develop into supercells given the enhanced low-level SRH. Potential for a couple tornadic storms along with a risk for severe wind/hail should develop during the late afternoon through about dusk. This corridor will probably remain focused on the mesoscale as highlighted by a relatively confined level 2-SLGT. Strong low-level shear will exist with northeast extent in the Upper Midwest, but forecast soundings indicate convection will largely remain elevated, suggesting a more marginal severe hail/wind threat Saturday night. ...Northern Great Plains... A shortwave trough will move northeast across the Pacific Northwest into the southern SK vicinity by early Sunday. A pair of lee cyclones should develop near the Canadian Rockies and over the northern High Plains before tracking eastward into MB to the central Dakotas as a pronounced cold front accelerates eastward Saturday night. Multiple corridors of thunderstorms will likely develop during the late afternoon along the cold front and a lee trough, over southern to eastern MT and the western Dakotas. The degree of buoyancy with western extent into MT is somewhat uncertain where large-scale ascent will initially be greatest. But a plume of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid very steep mid-level lapse rates should develop from the central/western Dakotas into a part of eastern MT. Strengthening mid to upper-level flow with the approaching shortwave trough will yield potential for high-based supercells, conditionally favoring very large hail. 12Z HREF guidance signals convection largely forming west of the larger buoyancy plume and impinging on it during the evening. This suggests that a cluster to linear mode may occur relatively quickly with cold pools spreading east-northeast in the western to central Dakotas. Small-scale bowing structures may develop, locally enhancing severe wind intensity during the evening. Have expanded both level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south and east to account for greater confidence in a mixed severe hail/wind threat occurring. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening Saturday, across the Mid-Missouri Valley and in eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple tornadic storms may occur in eastern Nebraska to western Iowa, with isolated severe significant severe hail and wind possible in the northern Great Plains. ...Mid-MO Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough currently centered near the Four Corners will progress northeast into parts of the central Great Plains to Upper Midwest by Saturday afternoon. This trough should contain multiple embedded impulses that are convectively enhanced from D1 convection over the High Plains. The greatest severe threat will likely emanate out of one such MCV as it progresses towards the Mid-MO Valley towards peak heating. While mid-level lapse rates will be weaker in vicinity of the MCV, ample low-level flow should be relatively strong ahead of the broader trough. A confined corridor of moderate to large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg), aided by greater low-level moisture along a residual frontal zone, should develop from the Ozark Plateau northwest into the Mid-MO Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the MCV. At least a few of these should develop into supercells given the enhanced low-level SRH. Potential for a couple tornadic storms along with a risk for severe wind/hail should develop during the late afternoon through about dusk. This corridor will probably remain focused on the mesoscale as highlighted by a relatively confined level 2-SLGT. Strong low-level shear will exist with northeast extent in the Upper Midwest, but forecast soundings indicate convection will largely remain elevated, suggesting a more marginal severe hail/wind threat Saturday night. ...Northern Great Plains... A shortwave trough will move northeast across the Pacific Northwest into the southern SK vicinity by early Sunday. A pair of lee cyclones should develop near the Canadian Rockies and over the northern High Plains before tracking eastward into MB to the central Dakotas as a pronounced cold front accelerates eastward Saturday night. Multiple corridors of thunderstorms will likely develop during the late afternoon along the cold front and a lee trough, over southern to eastern MT and the western Dakotas. The degree of buoyancy with western extent into MT is somewhat uncertain where large-scale ascent will initially be greatest. But a plume of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid very steep mid-level lapse rates should develop from the central/western Dakotas into a part of eastern MT. Strengthening mid to upper-level flow with the approaching shortwave trough will yield potential for high-based supercells, conditionally favoring very large hail. 12Z HREF guidance signals convection largely forming west of the larger buoyancy plume and impinging on it during the evening. This suggests that a cluster to linear mode may occur relatively quickly with cold pools spreading east-northeast in the western to central Dakotas. Small-scale bowing structures may develop, locally enhancing severe wind intensity during the evening. Have expanded both level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south and east to account for greater confidence in a mixed severe hail/wind threat occurring. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening Saturday, across the Mid-Missouri Valley and in eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple tornadic storms may occur in eastern Nebraska to western Iowa, with isolated severe significant severe hail and wind possible in the northern Great Plains. ...Mid-MO Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough currently centered near the Four Corners will progress northeast into parts of the central Great Plains to Upper Midwest by Saturday afternoon. This trough should contain multiple embedded impulses that are convectively enhanced from D1 convection over the High Plains. The greatest severe threat will likely emanate out of one such MCV as it progresses towards the Mid-MO Valley towards peak heating. While mid-level lapse rates will be weaker in vicinity of the MCV, ample low-level flow should be relatively strong ahead of the broader trough. A confined corridor of moderate to large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg), aided by greater low-level moisture along a residual frontal zone, should develop from the Ozark Plateau northwest into the Mid-MO Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the MCV. At least a few of these should develop into supercells given the enhanced low-level SRH. Potential for a couple tornadic storms along with a risk for severe wind/hail should develop during the late afternoon through about dusk. This corridor will probably remain focused on the mesoscale as highlighted by a relatively confined level 2-SLGT. Strong low-level shear will exist with northeast extent in the Upper Midwest, but forecast soundings indicate convection will largely remain elevated, suggesting a more marginal severe hail/wind threat Saturday night. ...Northern Great Plains... A shortwave trough will move northeast across the Pacific Northwest into the southern SK vicinity by early Sunday. A pair of lee cyclones should develop near the Canadian Rockies and over the northern High Plains before tracking eastward into MB to the central Dakotas as a pronounced cold front accelerates eastward Saturday night. Multiple corridors of thunderstorms will likely develop during the late afternoon along the cold front and a lee trough, over southern to eastern MT and the western Dakotas. The degree of buoyancy with western extent into MT is somewhat uncertain where large-scale ascent will initially be greatest. But a plume of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid very steep mid-level lapse rates should develop from the central/western Dakotas into a part of eastern MT. Strengthening mid to upper-level flow with the approaching shortwave trough will yield potential for high-based supercells, conditionally favoring very large hail. 12Z HREF guidance signals convection largely forming west of the larger buoyancy plume and impinging on it during the evening. This suggests that a cluster to linear mode may occur relatively quickly with cold pools spreading east-northeast in the western to central Dakotas. Small-scale bowing structures may develop, locally enhancing severe wind intensity during the evening. Have expanded both level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south and east to account for greater confidence in a mixed severe hail/wind threat occurring. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening Saturday, across the Mid-Missouri Valley and in eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple tornadic storms may occur in eastern Nebraska to western Iowa, with isolated severe significant severe hail and wind possible in the northern Great Plains. ...Mid-MO Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough currently centered near the Four Corners will progress northeast into parts of the central Great Plains to Upper Midwest by Saturday afternoon. This trough should contain multiple embedded impulses that are convectively enhanced from D1 convection over the High Plains. The greatest severe threat will likely emanate out of one such MCV as it progresses towards the Mid-MO Valley towards peak heating. While mid-level lapse rates will be weaker in vicinity of the MCV, ample low-level flow should be relatively strong ahead of the broader trough. A confined corridor of moderate to large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg), aided by greater low-level moisture along a residual frontal zone, should develop from the Ozark Plateau northwest into the Mid-MO Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the MCV. At least a few of these should develop into supercells given the enhanced low-level SRH. Potential for a couple tornadic storms along with a risk for severe wind/hail should develop during the late afternoon through about dusk. This corridor will probably remain focused on the mesoscale as highlighted by a relatively confined level 2-SLGT. Strong low-level shear will exist with northeast extent in the Upper Midwest, but forecast soundings indicate convection will largely remain elevated, suggesting a more marginal severe hail/wind threat Saturday night. ...Northern Great Plains... A shortwave trough will move northeast across the Pacific Northwest into the southern SK vicinity by early Sunday. A pair of lee cyclones should develop near the Canadian Rockies and over the northern High Plains before tracking eastward into MB to the central Dakotas as a pronounced cold front accelerates eastward Saturday night. Multiple corridors of thunderstorms will likely develop during the late afternoon along the cold front and a lee trough, over southern to eastern MT and the western Dakotas. The degree of buoyancy with western extent into MT is somewhat uncertain where large-scale ascent will initially be greatest. But a plume of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid very steep mid-level lapse rates should develop from the central/western Dakotas into a part of eastern MT. Strengthening mid to upper-level flow with the approaching shortwave trough will yield potential for high-based supercells, conditionally favoring very large hail. 12Z HREF guidance signals convection largely forming west of the larger buoyancy plume and impinging on it during the evening. This suggests that a cluster to linear mode may occur relatively quickly with cold pools spreading east-northeast in the western to central Dakotas. Small-scale bowing structures may develop, locally enhancing severe wind intensity during the evening. Have expanded both level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south and east to account for greater confidence in a mixed severe hail/wind threat occurring. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening Saturday, across the Mid-Missouri Valley and in eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple tornadic storms may occur in eastern Nebraska to western Iowa, with isolated severe significant severe hail and wind possible in the northern Great Plains. ...Mid-MO Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough currently centered near the Four Corners will progress northeast into parts of the central Great Plains to Upper Midwest by Saturday afternoon. This trough should contain multiple embedded impulses that are convectively enhanced from D1 convection over the High Plains. The greatest severe threat will likely emanate out of one such MCV as it progresses towards the Mid-MO Valley towards peak heating. While mid-level lapse rates will be weaker in vicinity of the MCV, ample low-level flow should be relatively strong ahead of the broader trough. A confined corridor of moderate to large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg), aided by greater low-level moisture along a residual frontal zone, should develop from the Ozark Plateau northwest into the Mid-MO Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the MCV. At least a few of these should develop into supercells given the enhanced low-level SRH. Potential for a couple tornadic storms along with a risk for severe wind/hail should develop during the late afternoon through about dusk. This corridor will probably remain focused on the mesoscale as highlighted by a relatively confined level 2-SLGT. Strong low-level shear will exist with northeast extent in the Upper Midwest, but forecast soundings indicate convection will largely remain elevated, suggesting a more marginal severe hail/wind threat Saturday night. ...Northern Great Plains... A shortwave trough will move northeast across the Pacific Northwest into the southern SK vicinity by early Sunday. A pair of lee cyclones should develop near the Canadian Rockies and over the northern High Plains before tracking eastward into MB to the central Dakotas as a pronounced cold front accelerates eastward Saturday night. Multiple corridors of thunderstorms will likely develop during the late afternoon along the cold front and a lee trough, over southern to eastern MT and the western Dakotas. The degree of buoyancy with western extent into MT is somewhat uncertain where large-scale ascent will initially be greatest. But a plume of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid very steep mid-level lapse rates should develop from the central/western Dakotas into a part of eastern MT. Strengthening mid to upper-level flow with the approaching shortwave trough will yield potential for high-based supercells, conditionally favoring very large hail. 12Z HREF guidance signals convection largely forming west of the larger buoyancy plume and impinging on it during the evening. This suggests that a cluster to linear mode may occur relatively quickly with cold pools spreading east-northeast in the western to central Dakotas. Small-scale bowing structures may develop, locally enhancing severe wind intensity during the evening. Have expanded both level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south and east to account for greater confidence in a mixed severe hail/wind threat occurring. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening Saturday, across the Mid-Missouri Valley and in eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple tornadic storms may occur in eastern Nebraska to western Iowa, with isolated severe significant severe hail and wind possible in the northern Great Plains. ...Mid-MO Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough currently centered near the Four Corners will progress northeast into parts of the central Great Plains to Upper Midwest by Saturday afternoon. This trough should contain multiple embedded impulses that are convectively enhanced from D1 convection over the High Plains. The greatest severe threat will likely emanate out of one such MCV as it progresses towards the Mid-MO Valley towards peak heating. While mid-level lapse rates will be weaker in vicinity of the MCV, ample low-level flow should be relatively strong ahead of the broader trough. A confined corridor of moderate to large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg), aided by greater low-level moisture along a residual frontal zone, should develop from the Ozark Plateau northwest into the Mid-MO Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the MCV. At least a few of these should develop into supercells given the enhanced low-level SRH. Potential for a couple tornadic storms along with a risk for severe wind/hail should develop during the late afternoon through about dusk. This corridor will probably remain focused on the mesoscale as highlighted by a relatively confined level 2-SLGT. Strong low-level shear will exist with northeast extent in the Upper Midwest, but forecast soundings indicate convection will largely remain elevated, suggesting a more marginal severe hail/wind threat Saturday night. ...Northern Great Plains... A shortwave trough will move northeast across the Pacific Northwest into the southern SK vicinity by early Sunday. A pair of lee cyclones should develop near the Canadian Rockies and over the northern High Plains before tracking eastward into MB to the central Dakotas as a pronounced cold front accelerates eastward Saturday night. Multiple corridors of thunderstorms will likely develop during the late afternoon along the cold front and a lee trough, over southern to eastern MT and the western Dakotas. The degree of buoyancy with western extent into MT is somewhat uncertain where large-scale ascent will initially be greatest. But a plume of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid very steep mid-level lapse rates should develop from the central/western Dakotas into a part of eastern MT. Strengthening mid to upper-level flow with the approaching shortwave trough will yield potential for high-based supercells, conditionally favoring very large hail. 12Z HREF guidance signals convection largely forming west of the larger buoyancy plume and impinging on it during the evening. This suggests that a cluster to linear mode may occur relatively quickly with cold pools spreading east-northeast in the western to central Dakotas. Small-scale bowing structures may develop, locally enhancing severe wind intensity during the evening. Have expanded both level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south and east to account for greater confidence in a mixed severe hail/wind threat occurring. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening Saturday, across the Mid-Missouri Valley and in eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple tornadic storms may occur in eastern Nebraska to western Iowa, with isolated severe significant severe hail and wind possible in the northern Great Plains. ...Mid-MO Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough currently centered near the Four Corners will progress northeast into parts of the central Great Plains to Upper Midwest by Saturday afternoon. This trough should contain multiple embedded impulses that are convectively enhanced from D1 convection over the High Plains. The greatest severe threat will likely emanate out of one such MCV as it progresses towards the Mid-MO Valley towards peak heating. While mid-level lapse rates will be weaker in vicinity of the MCV, ample low-level flow should be relatively strong ahead of the broader trough. A confined corridor of moderate to large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg), aided by greater low-level moisture along a residual frontal zone, should develop from the Ozark Plateau northwest into the Mid-MO Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the MCV. At least a few of these should develop into supercells given the enhanced low-level SRH. Potential for a couple tornadic storms along with a risk for severe wind/hail should develop during the late afternoon through about dusk. This corridor will probably remain focused on the mesoscale as highlighted by a relatively confined level 2-SLGT. Strong low-level shear will exist with northeast extent in the Upper Midwest, but forecast soundings indicate convection will largely remain elevated, suggesting a more marginal severe hail/wind threat Saturday night. ...Northern Great Plains... A shortwave trough will move northeast across the Pacific Northwest into the southern SK vicinity by early Sunday. A pair of lee cyclones should develop near the Canadian Rockies and over the northern High Plains before tracking eastward into MB to the central Dakotas as a pronounced cold front accelerates eastward Saturday night. Multiple corridors of thunderstorms will likely develop during the late afternoon along the cold front and a lee trough, over southern to eastern MT and the western Dakotas. The degree of buoyancy with western extent into MT is somewhat uncertain where large-scale ascent will initially be greatest. But a plume of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid very steep mid-level lapse rates should develop from the central/western Dakotas into a part of eastern MT. Strengthening mid to upper-level flow with the approaching shortwave trough will yield potential for high-based supercells, conditionally favoring very large hail. 12Z HREF guidance signals convection largely forming west of the larger buoyancy plume and impinging on it during the evening. This suggests that a cluster to linear mode may occur relatively quickly with cold pools spreading east-northeast in the western to central Dakotas. Small-scale bowing structures may develop, locally enhancing severe wind intensity during the evening. Have expanded both level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south and east to account for greater confidence in a mixed severe hail/wind threat occurring. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening Saturday, across the Mid-Missouri Valley and in eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple tornadic storms may occur in eastern Nebraska to western Iowa, with isolated severe significant severe hail and wind possible in the northern Great Plains. ...Mid-MO Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough currently centered near the Four Corners will progress northeast into parts of the central Great Plains to Upper Midwest by Saturday afternoon. This trough should contain multiple embedded impulses that are convectively enhanced from D1 convection over the High Plains. The greatest severe threat will likely emanate out of one such MCV as it progresses towards the Mid-MO Valley towards peak heating. While mid-level lapse rates will be weaker in vicinity of the MCV, ample low-level flow should be relatively strong ahead of the broader trough. A confined corridor of moderate to large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg), aided by greater low-level moisture along a residual frontal zone, should develop from the Ozark Plateau northwest into the Mid-MO Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the MCV. At least a few of these should develop into supercells given the enhanced low-level SRH. Potential for a couple tornadic storms along with a risk for severe wind/hail should develop during the late afternoon through about dusk. This corridor will probably remain focused on the mesoscale as highlighted by a relatively confined level 2-SLGT. Strong low-level shear will exist with northeast extent in the Upper Midwest, but forecast soundings indicate convection will largely remain elevated, suggesting a more marginal severe hail/wind threat Saturday night. ...Northern Great Plains... A shortwave trough will move northeast across the Pacific Northwest into the southern SK vicinity by early Sunday. A pair of lee cyclones should develop near the Canadian Rockies and over the northern High Plains before tracking eastward into MB to the central Dakotas as a pronounced cold front accelerates eastward Saturday night. Multiple corridors of thunderstorms will likely develop during the late afternoon along the cold front and a lee trough, over southern to eastern MT and the western Dakotas. The degree of buoyancy with western extent into MT is somewhat uncertain where large-scale ascent will initially be greatest. But a plume of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid very steep mid-level lapse rates should develop from the central/western Dakotas into a part of eastern MT. Strengthening mid to upper-level flow with the approaching shortwave trough will yield potential for high-based supercells, conditionally favoring very large hail. 12Z HREF guidance signals convection largely forming west of the larger buoyancy plume and impinging on it during the evening. This suggests that a cluster to linear mode may occur relatively quickly with cold pools spreading east-northeast in the western to central Dakotas. Small-scale bowing structures may develop, locally enhancing severe wind intensity during the evening. Have expanded both level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south and east to account for greater confidence in a mixed severe hail/wind threat occurring. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening Saturday, across the Mid-Missouri Valley and in eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple tornadic storms may occur in eastern Nebraska to western Iowa, with isolated severe significant severe hail and wind possible in the northern Great Plains. ...Mid-MO Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough currently centered near the Four Corners will progress northeast into parts of the central Great Plains to Upper Midwest by Saturday afternoon. This trough should contain multiple embedded impulses that are convectively enhanced from D1 convection over the High Plains. The greatest severe threat will likely emanate out of one such MCV as it progresses towards the Mid-MO Valley towards peak heating. While mid-level lapse rates will be weaker in vicinity of the MCV, ample low-level flow should be relatively strong ahead of the broader trough. A confined corridor of moderate to large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg), aided by greater low-level moisture along a residual frontal zone, should develop from the Ozark Plateau northwest into the Mid-MO Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the MCV. At least a few of these should develop into supercells given the enhanced low-level SRH. Potential for a couple tornadic storms along with a risk for severe wind/hail should develop during the late afternoon through about dusk. This corridor will probably remain focused on the mesoscale as highlighted by a relatively confined level 2-SLGT. Strong low-level shear will exist with northeast extent in the Upper Midwest, but forecast soundings indicate convection will largely remain elevated, suggesting a more marginal severe hail/wind threat Saturday night. ...Northern Great Plains... A shortwave trough will move northeast across the Pacific Northwest into the southern SK vicinity by early Sunday. A pair of lee cyclones should develop near the Canadian Rockies and over the northern High Plains before tracking eastward into MB to the central Dakotas as a pronounced cold front accelerates eastward Saturday night. Multiple corridors of thunderstorms will likely develop during the late afternoon along the cold front and a lee trough, over southern to eastern MT and the western Dakotas. The degree of buoyancy with western extent into MT is somewhat uncertain where large-scale ascent will initially be greatest. But a plume of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid very steep mid-level lapse rates should develop from the central/western Dakotas into a part of eastern MT. Strengthening mid to upper-level flow with the approaching shortwave trough will yield potential for high-based supercells, conditionally favoring very large hail. 12Z HREF guidance signals convection largely forming west of the larger buoyancy plume and impinging on it during the evening. This suggests that a cluster to linear mode may occur relatively quickly with cold pools spreading east-northeast in the western to central Dakotas. Small-scale bowing structures may develop, locally enhancing severe wind intensity during the evening. Have expanded both level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south and east to account for greater confidence in a mixed severe hail/wind threat occurring. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening Saturday, across the Mid-Missouri Valley and in eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple tornadic storms may occur in eastern Nebraska to western Iowa, with isolated severe significant severe hail and wind possible in the northern Great Plains. ...Mid-MO Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough currently centered near the Four Corners will progress northeast into parts of the central Great Plains to Upper Midwest by Saturday afternoon. This trough should contain multiple embedded impulses that are convectively enhanced from D1 convection over the High Plains. The greatest severe threat will likely emanate out of one such MCV as it progresses towards the Mid-MO Valley towards peak heating. While mid-level lapse rates will be weaker in vicinity of the MCV, ample low-level flow should be relatively strong ahead of the broader trough. A confined corridor of moderate to large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg), aided by greater low-level moisture along a residual frontal zone, should develop from the Ozark Plateau northwest into the Mid-MO Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the MCV. At least a few of these should develop into supercells given the enhanced low-level SRH. Potential for a couple tornadic storms along with a risk for severe wind/hail should develop during the late afternoon through about dusk. This corridor will probably remain focused on the mesoscale as highlighted by a relatively confined level 2-SLGT. Strong low-level shear will exist with northeast extent in the Upper Midwest, but forecast soundings indicate convection will largely remain elevated, suggesting a more marginal severe hail/wind threat Saturday night. ...Northern Great Plains... A shortwave trough will move northeast across the Pacific Northwest into the southern SK vicinity by early Sunday. A pair of lee cyclones should develop near the Canadian Rockies and over the northern High Plains before tracking eastward into MB to the central Dakotas as a pronounced cold front accelerates eastward Saturday night. Multiple corridors of thunderstorms will likely develop during the late afternoon along the cold front and a lee trough, over southern to eastern MT and the western Dakotas. The degree of buoyancy with western extent into MT is somewhat uncertain where large-scale ascent will initially be greatest. But a plume of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid very steep mid-level lapse rates should develop from the central/western Dakotas into a part of eastern MT. Strengthening mid to upper-level flow with the approaching shortwave trough will yield potential for high-based supercells, conditionally favoring very large hail. 12Z HREF guidance signals convection largely forming west of the larger buoyancy plume and impinging on it during the evening. This suggests that a cluster to linear mode may occur relatively quickly with cold pools spreading east-northeast in the western to central Dakotas. Small-scale bowing structures may develop, locally enhancing severe wind intensity during the evening. Have expanded both level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south and east to account for greater confidence in a mixed severe hail/wind threat occurring. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening Saturday, across the Mid-Missouri Valley and in eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple tornadic storms may occur in eastern Nebraska to western Iowa, with isolated severe significant severe hail and wind possible in the northern Great Plains. ...Mid-MO Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough currently centered near the Four Corners will progress northeast into parts of the central Great Plains to Upper Midwest by Saturday afternoon. This trough should contain multiple embedded impulses that are convectively enhanced from D1 convection over the High Plains. The greatest severe threat will likely emanate out of one such MCV as it progresses towards the Mid-MO Valley towards peak heating. While mid-level lapse rates will be weaker in vicinity of the MCV, ample low-level flow should be relatively strong ahead of the broader trough. A confined corridor of moderate to large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg), aided by greater low-level moisture along a residual frontal zone, should develop from the Ozark Plateau northwest into the Mid-MO Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the MCV. At least a few of these should develop into supercells given the enhanced low-level SRH. Potential for a couple tornadic storms along with a risk for severe wind/hail should develop during the late afternoon through about dusk. This corridor will probably remain focused on the mesoscale as highlighted by a relatively confined level 2-SLGT. Strong low-level shear will exist with northeast extent in the Upper Midwest, but forecast soundings indicate convection will largely remain elevated, suggesting a more marginal severe hail/wind threat Saturday night. ...Northern Great Plains... A shortwave trough will move northeast across the Pacific Northwest into the southern SK vicinity by early Sunday. A pair of lee cyclones should develop near the Canadian Rockies and over the northern High Plains before tracking eastward into MB to the central Dakotas as a pronounced cold front accelerates eastward Saturday night. Multiple corridors of thunderstorms will likely develop during the late afternoon along the cold front and a lee trough, over southern to eastern MT and the western Dakotas. The degree of buoyancy with western extent into MT is somewhat uncertain where large-scale ascent will initially be greatest. But a plume of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid very steep mid-level lapse rates should develop from the central/western Dakotas into a part of eastern MT. Strengthening mid to upper-level flow with the approaching shortwave trough will yield potential for high-based supercells, conditionally favoring very large hail. 12Z HREF guidance signals convection largely forming west of the larger buoyancy plume and impinging on it during the evening. This suggests that a cluster to linear mode may occur relatively quickly with cold pools spreading east-northeast in the western to central Dakotas. Small-scale bowing structures may develop, locally enhancing severe wind intensity during the evening. Have expanded both level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south and east to account for greater confidence in a mixed severe hail/wind threat occurring. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening Saturday, across the Mid-Missouri Valley and in eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple tornadic storms may occur in eastern Nebraska to western Iowa, with isolated severe significant severe hail and wind possible in the northern Great Plains. ...Mid-MO Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough currently centered near the Four Corners will progress northeast into parts of the central Great Plains to Upper Midwest by Saturday afternoon. This trough should contain multiple embedded impulses that are convectively enhanced from D1 convection over the High Plains. The greatest severe threat will likely emanate out of one such MCV as it progresses towards the Mid-MO Valley towards peak heating. While mid-level lapse rates will be weaker in vicinity of the MCV, ample low-level flow should be relatively strong ahead of the broader trough. A confined corridor of moderate to large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg), aided by greater low-level moisture along a residual frontal zone, should develop from the Ozark Plateau northwest into the Mid-MO Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the MCV. At least a few of these should develop into supercells given the enhanced low-level SRH. Potential for a couple tornadic storms along with a risk for severe wind/hail should develop during the late afternoon through about dusk. This corridor will probably remain focused on the mesoscale as highlighted by a relatively confined level 2-SLGT. Strong low-level shear will exist with northeast extent in the Upper Midwest, but forecast soundings indicate convection will largely remain elevated, suggesting a more marginal severe hail/wind threat Saturday night. ...Northern Great Plains... A shortwave trough will move northeast across the Pacific Northwest into the southern SK vicinity by early Sunday. A pair of lee cyclones should develop near the Canadian Rockies and over the northern High Plains before tracking eastward into MB to the central Dakotas as a pronounced cold front accelerates eastward Saturday night. Multiple corridors of thunderstorms will likely develop during the late afternoon along the cold front and a lee trough, over southern to eastern MT and the western Dakotas. The degree of buoyancy with western extent into MT is somewhat uncertain where large-scale ascent will initially be greatest. But a plume of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid very steep mid-level lapse rates should develop from the central/western Dakotas into a part of eastern MT. Strengthening mid to upper-level flow with the approaching shortwave trough will yield potential for high-based supercells, conditionally favoring very large hail. 12Z HREF guidance signals convection largely forming west of the larger buoyancy plume and impinging on it during the evening. This suggests that a cluster to linear mode may occur relatively quickly with cold pools spreading east-northeast in the western to central Dakotas. Small-scale bowing structures may develop, locally enhancing severe wind intensity during the evening. Have expanded both level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south and east to account for greater confidence in a mixed severe hail/wind threat occurring. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z The previous discussion is largely on track. With the mid-level trough near the Four Corners moving to the east, the risk for isolated dry thunderstorms has been shifted east accordingly. Additionally, some locally elevated conditions are possible along the lee of the northern California coastal ranges, with guidance depicting some potential for terrain-enhanced downslope flow with near-critical values of RH. However, fuels in the area are not particularly dry, so will decline to introduce highlights. ..Supinie.. 06/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough and belt of south-southwesterly flow aloft will advance east-northeastward across the Southwest on Friday. A surface low south of south-central NM will promote modestly breezy westerly surface winds across southeastern AZ and southwestern NM. Given a deep/dry boundary layer across the area (single-digit RH), elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. The primary limiting factor for the addition of a Critical area continues to be marginal surface winds (15-20 mph). Across northern Arizona on the fringe of better moisture located across the Four Corners into western New Mexico, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along the Mogollon Rim. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will move into the base of a mid-level trough across the Northwest Friday afternoon. The associated downslope flow across the Cascades and Sierra will favor locally dry/breezy conditions across portions of northwestern NV and eastern WA/northeastern OR where fuels have dried sufficiently to support fire spread. As a result, elevated conditions are expected for both areas, with locally critical conditions possible in northwestern NV -- where 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z The previous discussion is largely on track. With the mid-level trough near the Four Corners moving to the east, the risk for isolated dry thunderstorms has been shifted east accordingly. Additionally, some locally elevated conditions are possible along the lee of the northern California coastal ranges, with guidance depicting some potential for terrain-enhanced downslope flow with near-critical values of RH. However, fuels in the area are not particularly dry, so will decline to introduce highlights. ..Supinie.. 06/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough and belt of south-southwesterly flow aloft will advance east-northeastward across the Southwest on Friday. A surface low south of south-central NM will promote modestly breezy westerly surface winds across southeastern AZ and southwestern NM. Given a deep/dry boundary layer across the area (single-digit RH), elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. The primary limiting factor for the addition of a Critical area continues to be marginal surface winds (15-20 mph). Across northern Arizona on the fringe of better moisture located across the Four Corners into western New Mexico, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along the Mogollon Rim. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will move into the base of a mid-level trough across the Northwest Friday afternoon. The associated downslope flow across the Cascades and Sierra will favor locally dry/breezy conditions across portions of northwestern NV and eastern WA/northeastern OR where fuels have dried sufficiently to support fire spread. As a result, elevated conditions are expected for both areas, with locally critical conditions possible in northwestern NV -- where 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z The previous discussion is largely on track. With the mid-level trough near the Four Corners moving to the east, the risk for isolated dry thunderstorms has been shifted east accordingly. Additionally, some locally elevated conditions are possible along the lee of the northern California coastal ranges, with guidance depicting some potential for terrain-enhanced downslope flow with near-critical values of RH. However, fuels in the area are not particularly dry, so will decline to introduce highlights. ..Supinie.. 06/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough and belt of south-southwesterly flow aloft will advance east-northeastward across the Southwest on Friday. A surface low south of south-central NM will promote modestly breezy westerly surface winds across southeastern AZ and southwestern NM. Given a deep/dry boundary layer across the area (single-digit RH), elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. The primary limiting factor for the addition of a Critical area continues to be marginal surface winds (15-20 mph). Across northern Arizona on the fringe of better moisture located across the Four Corners into western New Mexico, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along the Mogollon Rim. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will move into the base of a mid-level trough across the Northwest Friday afternoon. The associated downslope flow across the Cascades and Sierra will favor locally dry/breezy conditions across portions of northwestern NV and eastern WA/northeastern OR where fuels have dried sufficiently to support fire spread. As a result, elevated conditions are expected for both areas, with locally critical conditions possible in northwestern NV -- where 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z The previous discussion is largely on track. With the mid-level trough near the Four Corners moving to the east, the risk for isolated dry thunderstorms has been shifted east accordingly. Additionally, some locally elevated conditions are possible along the lee of the northern California coastal ranges, with guidance depicting some potential for terrain-enhanced downslope flow with near-critical values of RH. However, fuels in the area are not particularly dry, so will decline to introduce highlights. ..Supinie.. 06/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough and belt of south-southwesterly flow aloft will advance east-northeastward across the Southwest on Friday. A surface low south of south-central NM will promote modestly breezy westerly surface winds across southeastern AZ and southwestern NM. Given a deep/dry boundary layer across the area (single-digit RH), elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. The primary limiting factor for the addition of a Critical area continues to be marginal surface winds (15-20 mph). Across northern Arizona on the fringe of better moisture located across the Four Corners into western New Mexico, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along the Mogollon Rim. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will move into the base of a mid-level trough across the Northwest Friday afternoon. The associated downslope flow across the Cascades and Sierra will favor locally dry/breezy conditions across portions of northwestern NV and eastern WA/northeastern OR where fuels have dried sufficiently to support fire spread. As a result, elevated conditions are expected for both areas, with locally critical conditions possible in northwestern NV -- where 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z The previous discussion is largely on track. With the mid-level trough near the Four Corners moving to the east, the risk for isolated dry thunderstorms has been shifted east accordingly. Additionally, some locally elevated conditions are possible along the lee of the northern California coastal ranges, with guidance depicting some potential for terrain-enhanced downslope flow with near-critical values of RH. However, fuels in the area are not particularly dry, so will decline to introduce highlights. ..Supinie.. 06/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough and belt of south-southwesterly flow aloft will advance east-northeastward across the Southwest on Friday. A surface low south of south-central NM will promote modestly breezy westerly surface winds across southeastern AZ and southwestern NM. Given a deep/dry boundary layer across the area (single-digit RH), elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. The primary limiting factor for the addition of a Critical area continues to be marginal surface winds (15-20 mph). Across northern Arizona on the fringe of better moisture located across the Four Corners into western New Mexico, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along the Mogollon Rim. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will move into the base of a mid-level trough across the Northwest Friday afternoon. The associated downslope flow across the Cascades and Sierra will favor locally dry/breezy conditions across portions of northwestern NV and eastern WA/northeastern OR where fuels have dried sufficiently to support fire spread. As a result, elevated conditions are expected for both areas, with locally critical conditions possible in northwestern NV -- where 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more