Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A broad trough over the western CONUS is expected to dominate the forecast for the period, with a strong mid-level jet across the northwest CONUS for the early part of the period. This strong jet will likely promote dry and breezy conditions on Days 3 and 4 (Sunday and Monday) across portions of the southwest CONUS. When combined with drying fuels in the region, 70% Critical probabilities have been maintained across portions of Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico. Additionally, a secondary mid-level jet is expected to translate eastward near the California coast on Day 4, which may promote dry, breezy conditions with receptive fuels in the California Central Valley. By Day 5 (Tuesday), the stronger mid-level flow translates to the northeast, and the surface flow in the region lessens accordingly. Some fire risk may occur across portions of the southern Rockies through the end of the period, though confidence in specific locations is not high enough to introduce any areas at the moment. ..Supinie.. 06/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A broad trough over the western CONUS is expected to dominate the forecast for the period, with a strong mid-level jet across the northwest CONUS for the early part of the period. This strong jet will likely promote dry and breezy conditions on Days 3 and 4 (Sunday and Monday) across portions of the southwest CONUS. When combined with drying fuels in the region, 70% Critical probabilities have been maintained across portions of Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico. Additionally, a secondary mid-level jet is expected to translate eastward near the California coast on Day 4, which may promote dry, breezy conditions with receptive fuels in the California Central Valley. By Day 5 (Tuesday), the stronger mid-level flow translates to the northeast, and the surface flow in the region lessens accordingly. Some fire risk may occur across portions of the southern Rockies through the end of the period, though confidence in specific locations is not high enough to introduce any areas at the moment. ..Supinie.. 06/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A broad trough over the western CONUS is expected to dominate the forecast for the period, with a strong mid-level jet across the northwest CONUS for the early part of the period. This strong jet will likely promote dry and breezy conditions on Days 3 and 4 (Sunday and Monday) across portions of the southwest CONUS. When combined with drying fuels in the region, 70% Critical probabilities have been maintained across portions of Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico. Additionally, a secondary mid-level jet is expected to translate eastward near the California coast on Day 4, which may promote dry, breezy conditions with receptive fuels in the California Central Valley. By Day 5 (Tuesday), the stronger mid-level flow translates to the northeast, and the surface flow in the region lessens accordingly. Some fire risk may occur across portions of the southern Rockies through the end of the period, though confidence in specific locations is not high enough to introduce any areas at the moment. ..Supinie.. 06/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A broad trough over the western CONUS is expected to dominate the forecast for the period, with a strong mid-level jet across the northwest CONUS for the early part of the period. This strong jet will likely promote dry and breezy conditions on Days 3 and 4 (Sunday and Monday) across portions of the southwest CONUS. When combined with drying fuels in the region, 70% Critical probabilities have been maintained across portions of Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico. Additionally, a secondary mid-level jet is expected to translate eastward near the California coast on Day 4, which may promote dry, breezy conditions with receptive fuels in the California Central Valley. By Day 5 (Tuesday), the stronger mid-level flow translates to the northeast, and the surface flow in the region lessens accordingly. Some fire risk may occur across portions of the southern Rockies through the end of the period, though confidence in specific locations is not high enough to introduce any areas at the moment. ..Supinie.. 06/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A broad trough over the western CONUS is expected to dominate the forecast for the period, with a strong mid-level jet across the northwest CONUS for the early part of the period. This strong jet will likely promote dry and breezy conditions on Days 3 and 4 (Sunday and Monday) across portions of the southwest CONUS. When combined with drying fuels in the region, 70% Critical probabilities have been maintained across portions of Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico. Additionally, a secondary mid-level jet is expected to translate eastward near the California coast on Day 4, which may promote dry, breezy conditions with receptive fuels in the California Central Valley. By Day 5 (Tuesday), the stronger mid-level flow translates to the northeast, and the surface flow in the region lessens accordingly. Some fire risk may occur across portions of the southern Rockies through the end of the period, though confidence in specific locations is not high enough to introduce any areas at the moment. ..Supinie.. 06/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A broad trough over the western CONUS is expected to dominate the forecast for the period, with a strong mid-level jet across the northwest CONUS for the early part of the period. This strong jet will likely promote dry and breezy conditions on Days 3 and 4 (Sunday and Monday) across portions of the southwest CONUS. When combined with drying fuels in the region, 70% Critical probabilities have been maintained across portions of Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico. Additionally, a secondary mid-level jet is expected to translate eastward near the California coast on Day 4, which may promote dry, breezy conditions with receptive fuels in the California Central Valley. By Day 5 (Tuesday), the stronger mid-level flow translates to the northeast, and the surface flow in the region lessens accordingly. Some fire risk may occur across portions of the southern Rockies through the end of the period, though confidence in specific locations is not high enough to introduce any areas at the moment. ..Supinie.. 06/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A broad trough over the western CONUS is expected to dominate the forecast for the period, with a strong mid-level jet across the northwest CONUS for the early part of the period. This strong jet will likely promote dry and breezy conditions on Days 3 and 4 (Sunday and Monday) across portions of the southwest CONUS. When combined with drying fuels in the region, 70% Critical probabilities have been maintained across portions of Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico. Additionally, a secondary mid-level jet is expected to translate eastward near the California coast on Day 4, which may promote dry, breezy conditions with receptive fuels in the California Central Valley. By Day 5 (Tuesday), the stronger mid-level flow translates to the northeast, and the surface flow in the region lessens accordingly. Some fire risk may occur across portions of the southern Rockies through the end of the period, though confidence in specific locations is not high enough to introduce any areas at the moment. ..Supinie.. 06/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A broad trough over the western CONUS is expected to dominate the forecast for the period, with a strong mid-level jet across the northwest CONUS for the early part of the period. This strong jet will likely promote dry and breezy conditions on Days 3 and 4 (Sunday and Monday) across portions of the southwest CONUS. When combined with drying fuels in the region, 70% Critical probabilities have been maintained across portions of Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico. Additionally, a secondary mid-level jet is expected to translate eastward near the California coast on Day 4, which may promote dry, breezy conditions with receptive fuels in the California Central Valley. By Day 5 (Tuesday), the stronger mid-level flow translates to the northeast, and the surface flow in the region lessens accordingly. Some fire risk may occur across portions of the southern Rockies through the end of the period, though confidence in specific locations is not high enough to introduce any areas at the moment. ..Supinie.. 06/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0415 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0415 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0415 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0415 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1262 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO...FAR NORTHEASTERN NM...FAR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING...AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1262 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Areas affected...The High Plains of Colorado...far northeastern NM...far southeastern Wyoming...and the Nebraska panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 141944Z - 142045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms posing a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a landspout or two expected. DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite and radar trends indicate destabilization and ascent are increasing from the Raton Mesa (preceding an outflow boundary) and northward along the front range of CO. In addition, deeper, pooling moisture, indicative of widespread cumulus across the northeastern CO High Plains is beginning to show sings of increasing vertical development. As a mid to upper shortwave trough continues to approach from the Four Corners region, broader ascent/diffluence aloft, DCVA, and increasing deep layer effective shear will overspread the region. Diurnal heating will also result in increasing buoyancy ahead of this feature, especially across CO where less cloud cover has been present within the warm sector. More cellular/discrete like thunderstorms this afternoon through early this evening will have the opportunity to produce large hail near 1-1.75" in diameter, and perhaps a landspout or two as low-level lapse rates continue to steepen. Thereafter, merging clusters and deepening cold pools will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts near 65-80 mph within a more deeply mixed boundary layer across the eastern High Plains. A WW will be needed soon. ..Barnes/Gleason.. 06/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ... LAT...LON 42530469 42120506 41360505 40970521 39900551 39090554 38480551 37470507 36150532 35750495 35920408 36240314 37000233 37230214 38120200 40000202 40900213 41240259 42210333 42480375 42530469 Read more

MD 1261 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN PA...NJ...NY HUDSON VALLEY...WESTERN MA..WESTERN CT
Mesoscale Discussion 1261 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Areas affected...Eastern PA...NJ...NY Hudson Valley...Western MA..Western CT Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 141834Z - 142030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Ongoing cluster across central Pennsylvania is expected to persist, with additional development possible across the region this afternoon. Damaging gust and/or hail are possible with the strongest storms, and trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance. DISCUSSION...A convective cluster continues to move eastward across central PA at around 30 kt. Clouds persist downstream of this cluster from eastern PA into NJ and the Hudson Valley, but some thinning has been noted across eastern PA, particularly southeast PA where temperatures are now in the low to mid 80s. There has been a corresponding increase in buoyancy across southeast PA, with some indications that the cluster may begin to progress a bit more southeastward into this region. Separate from the PA cluster, additional strengthening of the more cellular development across the Hudson Valley has also been noted as the large-scale forcing for ascent spreads into the region. With buoyancy and shear both expected to remain modest, the overall severe coverage remains uncertain. The cluster in central PA recently produced a 40 kt gust, and given that the environment downstream is similar to its current environment and significant strengthening appears unlikely, this may indicate the gust strength to expected downstream. Shear is slightly stronger farther north, so there may be a greater chance for severe hail from the Hudson Valley eastward into western MA/CT. Convective trends will be monitored across the entire region to determine if coverage will be sufficient for watch issuance. ..Mosier/Gleason.. 06/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 40337893 41137725 42097521 42537296 41677264 39807469 39707812 40337893 Read more

WW 0414 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0414 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0414 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0414 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0414 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0414 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast is largely on track, with some marginal expansion of the Elevated Risk area into portions of eastern California and southern Utah. Additionally, Elevated fire weather conditions are also possible in the Snake River Plain in eastern Idaho tomorrow afternoon, with gusts to 30-35 mph and 15-20% RH. Along with some locally drier fuels in the region, an Elevated Risk area has been added to cover this threat. ..Supinie.. 06/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will remain in place across the western US on Saturday with a belt of enhanced west to southwesterly flow moving across the Cascades into the Northern Rockies. This will bring potential for breezy/dry downslope flow to overspread dry fuels in the lee of the Cascades across western Washington/northern Oregon within the Columbia Basin. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Locally Critical fire weather concerns will be possible, though Critical winds appear too localized to include any areas at this time. Ahead of the western US trough, a surface trough across southern Nevada into western Arizona will bring breezy/dry conditions across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah and northwestern Arizona, where relative humidity reductions into the teens to single digit will overlap sustained southwesterly flow around 10-15 mph. This warrants inclusion of an Elevated delineation as fuels are critically dry across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast is largely on track, with some marginal expansion of the Elevated Risk area into portions of eastern California and southern Utah. Additionally, Elevated fire weather conditions are also possible in the Snake River Plain in eastern Idaho tomorrow afternoon, with gusts to 30-35 mph and 15-20% RH. Along with some locally drier fuels in the region, an Elevated Risk area has been added to cover this threat. ..Supinie.. 06/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will remain in place across the western US on Saturday with a belt of enhanced west to southwesterly flow moving across the Cascades into the Northern Rockies. This will bring potential for breezy/dry downslope flow to overspread dry fuels in the lee of the Cascades across western Washington/northern Oregon within the Columbia Basin. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Locally Critical fire weather concerns will be possible, though Critical winds appear too localized to include any areas at this time. Ahead of the western US trough, a surface trough across southern Nevada into western Arizona will bring breezy/dry conditions across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah and northwestern Arizona, where relative humidity reductions into the teens to single digit will overlap sustained southwesterly flow around 10-15 mph. This warrants inclusion of an Elevated delineation as fuels are critically dry across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast is largely on track, with some marginal expansion of the Elevated Risk area into portions of eastern California and southern Utah. Additionally, Elevated fire weather conditions are also possible in the Snake River Plain in eastern Idaho tomorrow afternoon, with gusts to 30-35 mph and 15-20% RH. Along with some locally drier fuels in the region, an Elevated Risk area has been added to cover this threat. ..Supinie.. 06/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will remain in place across the western US on Saturday with a belt of enhanced west to southwesterly flow moving across the Cascades into the Northern Rockies. This will bring potential for breezy/dry downslope flow to overspread dry fuels in the lee of the Cascades across western Washington/northern Oregon within the Columbia Basin. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Locally Critical fire weather concerns will be possible, though Critical winds appear too localized to include any areas at this time. Ahead of the western US trough, a surface trough across southern Nevada into western Arizona will bring breezy/dry conditions across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah and northwestern Arizona, where relative humidity reductions into the teens to single digit will overlap sustained southwesterly flow around 10-15 mph. This warrants inclusion of an Elevated delineation as fuels are critically dry across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast is largely on track, with some marginal expansion of the Elevated Risk area into portions of eastern California and southern Utah. Additionally, Elevated fire weather conditions are also possible in the Snake River Plain in eastern Idaho tomorrow afternoon, with gusts to 30-35 mph and 15-20% RH. Along with some locally drier fuels in the region, an Elevated Risk area has been added to cover this threat. ..Supinie.. 06/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will remain in place across the western US on Saturday with a belt of enhanced west to southwesterly flow moving across the Cascades into the Northern Rockies. This will bring potential for breezy/dry downslope flow to overspread dry fuels in the lee of the Cascades across western Washington/northern Oregon within the Columbia Basin. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Locally Critical fire weather concerns will be possible, though Critical winds appear too localized to include any areas at this time. Ahead of the western US trough, a surface trough across southern Nevada into western Arizona will bring breezy/dry conditions across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah and northwestern Arizona, where relative humidity reductions into the teens to single digit will overlap sustained southwesterly flow around 10-15 mph. This warrants inclusion of an Elevated delineation as fuels are critically dry across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast is largely on track, with some marginal expansion of the Elevated Risk area into portions of eastern California and southern Utah. Additionally, Elevated fire weather conditions are also possible in the Snake River Plain in eastern Idaho tomorrow afternoon, with gusts to 30-35 mph and 15-20% RH. Along with some locally drier fuels in the region, an Elevated Risk area has been added to cover this threat. ..Supinie.. 06/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will remain in place across the western US on Saturday with a belt of enhanced west to southwesterly flow moving across the Cascades into the Northern Rockies. This will bring potential for breezy/dry downslope flow to overspread dry fuels in the lee of the Cascades across western Washington/northern Oregon within the Columbia Basin. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Locally Critical fire weather concerns will be possible, though Critical winds appear too localized to include any areas at this time. Ahead of the western US trough, a surface trough across southern Nevada into western Arizona will bring breezy/dry conditions across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah and northwestern Arizona, where relative humidity reductions into the teens to single digit will overlap sustained southwesterly flow around 10-15 mph. This warrants inclusion of an Elevated delineation as fuels are critically dry across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more