Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and attendant belt of enhanced west to southwesterly flow moving across the Cascades into the Northern Rockies will bring potential for breezy/dry downslope flow in the lee of the Cascades across western Washington/northern Oregon within the Columbia Basin on Saturday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph amid drying fuels. Locally Critical fire weather concerns will be possible, though Critical winds appear too localized to include any areas at this time. Additionally, some Elevated fire weather conditions are likely in the Snake River Plain in Idaho where sustained winds around 30-35 mph will overlap 15-20% RH and modestly receptive fuels. Ahead of the western US trough, a surface trough across southern Nevada into western Arizona will bring breezy/dry conditions across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah and northwestern Arizona, where relative humidity reductions into the teens to single digits will overlap sustained southwesterly flow around 10-15 mph within critically dry fuels. Given sub-critical winds, an Elevated delineation covers this threat well. ..Thornton.. 06/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO SOUTHERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... The western US trough will deepen on Sunday, with strengthening southwesterly flow overspreading much of the desert Southwest. Fuels in this region have seen significant drying after several days of warm and dry conditions. Latest guidance indicates ERCs are in the 90th percentile across much of northern and central Arizona. This is further supported by recent fire activity in this region. Relative humidity reductions to 5-10 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph across central/northern Arizona and southern Utah, where a Critical delineation was included with this outlook. Outside of this region, a more broad area of Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across much of central/southern Nevada into southern Arizona, where there is less confidence is sustained Critical wind speeds. Elevated conditions may also extend into portions of western Nevada in the lee of the Sierras. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher) amid modestly receptive fuels. ..Thornton.. 06/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO SOUTHERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... The western US trough will deepen on Sunday, with strengthening southwesterly flow overspreading much of the desert Southwest. Fuels in this region have seen significant drying after several days of warm and dry conditions. Latest guidance indicates ERCs are in the 90th percentile across much of northern and central Arizona. This is further supported by recent fire activity in this region. Relative humidity reductions to 5-10 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph across central/northern Arizona and southern Utah, where a Critical delineation was included with this outlook. Outside of this region, a more broad area of Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across much of central/southern Nevada into southern Arizona, where there is less confidence is sustained Critical wind speeds. Elevated conditions may also extend into portions of western Nevada in the lee of the Sierras. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher) amid modestly receptive fuels. ..Thornton.. 06/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO SOUTHERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... The western US trough will deepen on Sunday, with strengthening southwesterly flow overspreading much of the desert Southwest. Fuels in this region have seen significant drying after several days of warm and dry conditions. Latest guidance indicates ERCs are in the 90th percentile across much of northern and central Arizona. This is further supported by recent fire activity in this region. Relative humidity reductions to 5-10 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph across central/northern Arizona and southern Utah, where a Critical delineation was included with this outlook. Outside of this region, a more broad area of Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across much of central/southern Nevada into southern Arizona, where there is less confidence is sustained Critical wind speeds. Elevated conditions may also extend into portions of western Nevada in the lee of the Sierras. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher) amid modestly receptive fuels. ..Thornton.. 06/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO SOUTHERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... The western US trough will deepen on Sunday, with strengthening southwesterly flow overspreading much of the desert Southwest. Fuels in this region have seen significant drying after several days of warm and dry conditions. Latest guidance indicates ERCs are in the 90th percentile across much of northern and central Arizona. This is further supported by recent fire activity in this region. Relative humidity reductions to 5-10 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph across central/northern Arizona and southern Utah, where a Critical delineation was included with this outlook. Outside of this region, a more broad area of Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across much of central/southern Nevada into southern Arizona, where there is less confidence is sustained Critical wind speeds. Elevated conditions may also extend into portions of western Nevada in the lee of the Sierras. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher) amid modestly receptive fuels. ..Thornton.. 06/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1267 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 416... FOR CENTRAL PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1267 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Areas affected...Central Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 416... Valid 150444Z - 150615Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 416 continues. SUMMARY...Gusty winds and marginally severe hail will accompany a squall line the next several hours. DISCUSSION...Mid-level short-wave trough has progressed through the western US ridge and is now ejecting into the central High Plains. Convection that developed off the higher terrain earlier this afternoon has progressed downstream and matured into a linear MCS that is now surging into central NE/north-central KS. LLJ is strengthening ahead of this activity so the organized squall line will likely continue for the next several hours. Gusty winds and marginally severe hail are the primary risks. ..Darrow.. 06/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC... LAT...LON 38689917 40219950 41930081 42469911 41559776 39059791 38689917 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected Sunday evening and overnight from parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, with hail the primary risk. ...Synopsis... On Sunday, an upper trough will move east/northeast across MT and the far northern Plains, becoming negatively tilted as the parent low moves into MB. Meanwhile, a lead wave will move quickly east across the Great Lakes region around the north side of a strong upper ridge. Late in the period, height falls will again increase across the Pacific NW into the Rockies as another trough amplifies there. At the surface, a nearly stationary front will extend roughly from northeast CO into southern MN, with a weak lee trough from eastern CO into NM. A prominent surface ridge will extend from the high pressure center over the Mid Atlantic southwestward toward the Gulf Coast. A broad area of southwest winds around 850 mb will maintain a warm low-level air mass south of the stationary front across the Plains and around the upper ridge as warmer air spreads east across the Great Lakes. The presence of a moist and unstable air mass in the vicinity of the stationary front should be the primary focus for scattered storms, some severe, late in the day and overnight from eastern WY toward MN and WI. ...WI into MI Early...then WY to WI Late... Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing Sunday morning over WI, in a region of low-level warm advection, and where elevated instability will be substantial. This activity will progress quickly east toward Upper MI and perhaps northern Lower MI, with a general weakening trend. However, marginal hail cannot be ruled out especially early in the day. Behind this wave of activity, strong instability will develop. However, lift will be quite weak as temporary height rises occur. Still, a weak surface boundary along with peak heating could initiate isolated cells capable of hail from MN into WI during the late afternoon. More likely, most of the activity will hold off until after 00Z, as elevated instability builds back north. Between 03-06Z, scattered storms will be likely from eastern WY across parts of NE and SD, southern MN, northern WI and into western Upper MI. Vigorous convection will likely produce large hail at times, with favorable mid and high level flow elongating hodographs despite the main wave well north of the region. Elsewhere, more isolated storms will be possible extending south along the dryline from southwest NE into western KS and far eastern NM. Locally strong gusts and brief hail may occur, but shear will be weak. ..Jewell.. 06/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected Sunday evening and overnight from parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, with hail the primary risk. ...Synopsis... On Sunday, an upper trough will move east/northeast across MT and the far northern Plains, becoming negatively tilted as the parent low moves into MB. Meanwhile, a lead wave will move quickly east across the Great Lakes region around the north side of a strong upper ridge. Late in the period, height falls will again increase across the Pacific NW into the Rockies as another trough amplifies there. At the surface, a nearly stationary front will extend roughly from northeast CO into southern MN, with a weak lee trough from eastern CO into NM. A prominent surface ridge will extend from the high pressure center over the Mid Atlantic southwestward toward the Gulf Coast. A broad area of southwest winds around 850 mb will maintain a warm low-level air mass south of the stationary front across the Plains and around the upper ridge as warmer air spreads east across the Great Lakes. The presence of a moist and unstable air mass in the vicinity of the stationary front should be the primary focus for scattered storms, some severe, late in the day and overnight from eastern WY toward MN and WI. ...WI into MI Early...then WY to WI Late... Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing Sunday morning over WI, in a region of low-level warm advection, and where elevated instability will be substantial. This activity will progress quickly east toward Upper MI and perhaps northern Lower MI, with a general weakening trend. However, marginal hail cannot be ruled out especially early in the day. Behind this wave of activity, strong instability will develop. However, lift will be quite weak as temporary height rises occur. Still, a weak surface boundary along with peak heating could initiate isolated cells capable of hail from MN into WI during the late afternoon. More likely, most of the activity will hold off until after 00Z, as elevated instability builds back north. Between 03-06Z, scattered storms will be likely from eastern WY across parts of NE and SD, southern MN, northern WI and into western Upper MI. Vigorous convection will likely produce large hail at times, with favorable mid and high level flow elongating hodographs despite the main wave well north of the region. Elsewhere, more isolated storms will be possible extending south along the dryline from southwest NE into western KS and far eastern NM. Locally strong gusts and brief hail may occur, but shear will be weak. ..Jewell.. 06/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected Sunday evening and overnight from parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, with hail the primary risk. ...Synopsis... On Sunday, an upper trough will move east/northeast across MT and the far northern Plains, becoming negatively tilted as the parent low moves into MB. Meanwhile, a lead wave will move quickly east across the Great Lakes region around the north side of a strong upper ridge. Late in the period, height falls will again increase across the Pacific NW into the Rockies as another trough amplifies there. At the surface, a nearly stationary front will extend roughly from northeast CO into southern MN, with a weak lee trough from eastern CO into NM. A prominent surface ridge will extend from the high pressure center over the Mid Atlantic southwestward toward the Gulf Coast. A broad area of southwest winds around 850 mb will maintain a warm low-level air mass south of the stationary front across the Plains and around the upper ridge as warmer air spreads east across the Great Lakes. The presence of a moist and unstable air mass in the vicinity of the stationary front should be the primary focus for scattered storms, some severe, late in the day and overnight from eastern WY toward MN and WI. ...WI into MI Early...then WY to WI Late... Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing Sunday morning over WI, in a region of low-level warm advection, and where elevated instability will be substantial. This activity will progress quickly east toward Upper MI and perhaps northern Lower MI, with a general weakening trend. However, marginal hail cannot be ruled out especially early in the day. Behind this wave of activity, strong instability will develop. However, lift will be quite weak as temporary height rises occur. Still, a weak surface boundary along with peak heating could initiate isolated cells capable of hail from MN into WI during the late afternoon. More likely, most of the activity will hold off until after 00Z, as elevated instability builds back north. Between 03-06Z, scattered storms will be likely from eastern WY across parts of NE and SD, southern MN, northern WI and into western Upper MI. Vigorous convection will likely produce large hail at times, with favorable mid and high level flow elongating hodographs despite the main wave well north of the region. Elsewhere, more isolated storms will be possible extending south along the dryline from southwest NE into western KS and far eastern NM. Locally strong gusts and brief hail may occur, but shear will be weak. ..Jewell.. 06/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected Sunday evening and overnight from parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, with hail the primary risk. ...Synopsis... On Sunday, an upper trough will move east/northeast across MT and the far northern Plains, becoming negatively tilted as the parent low moves into MB. Meanwhile, a lead wave will move quickly east across the Great Lakes region around the north side of a strong upper ridge. Late in the period, height falls will again increase across the Pacific NW into the Rockies as another trough amplifies there. At the surface, a nearly stationary front will extend roughly from northeast CO into southern MN, with a weak lee trough from eastern CO into NM. A prominent surface ridge will extend from the high pressure center over the Mid Atlantic southwestward toward the Gulf Coast. A broad area of southwest winds around 850 mb will maintain a warm low-level air mass south of the stationary front across the Plains and around the upper ridge as warmer air spreads east across the Great Lakes. The presence of a moist and unstable air mass in the vicinity of the stationary front should be the primary focus for scattered storms, some severe, late in the day and overnight from eastern WY toward MN and WI. ...WI into MI Early...then WY to WI Late... Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing Sunday morning over WI, in a region of low-level warm advection, and where elevated instability will be substantial. This activity will progress quickly east toward Upper MI and perhaps northern Lower MI, with a general weakening trend. However, marginal hail cannot be ruled out especially early in the day. Behind this wave of activity, strong instability will develop. However, lift will be quite weak as temporary height rises occur. Still, a weak surface boundary along with peak heating could initiate isolated cells capable of hail from MN into WI during the late afternoon. More likely, most of the activity will hold off until after 00Z, as elevated instability builds back north. Between 03-06Z, scattered storms will be likely from eastern WY across parts of NE and SD, southern MN, northern WI and into western Upper MI. Vigorous convection will likely produce large hail at times, with favorable mid and high level flow elongating hodographs despite the main wave well north of the region. Elsewhere, more isolated storms will be possible extending south along the dryline from southwest NE into western KS and far eastern NM. Locally strong gusts and brief hail may occur, but shear will be weak. ..Jewell.. 06/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected Sunday evening and overnight from parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, with hail the primary risk. ...Synopsis... On Sunday, an upper trough will move east/northeast across MT and the far northern Plains, becoming negatively tilted as the parent low moves into MB. Meanwhile, a lead wave will move quickly east across the Great Lakes region around the north side of a strong upper ridge. Late in the period, height falls will again increase across the Pacific NW into the Rockies as another trough amplifies there. At the surface, a nearly stationary front will extend roughly from northeast CO into southern MN, with a weak lee trough from eastern CO into NM. A prominent surface ridge will extend from the high pressure center over the Mid Atlantic southwestward toward the Gulf Coast. A broad area of southwest winds around 850 mb will maintain a warm low-level air mass south of the stationary front across the Plains and around the upper ridge as warmer air spreads east across the Great Lakes. The presence of a moist and unstable air mass in the vicinity of the stationary front should be the primary focus for scattered storms, some severe, late in the day and overnight from eastern WY toward MN and WI. ...WI into MI Early...then WY to WI Late... Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing Sunday morning over WI, in a region of low-level warm advection, and where elevated instability will be substantial. This activity will progress quickly east toward Upper MI and perhaps northern Lower MI, with a general weakening trend. However, marginal hail cannot be ruled out especially early in the day. Behind this wave of activity, strong instability will develop. However, lift will be quite weak as temporary height rises occur. Still, a weak surface boundary along with peak heating could initiate isolated cells capable of hail from MN into WI during the late afternoon. More likely, most of the activity will hold off until after 00Z, as elevated instability builds back north. Between 03-06Z, scattered storms will be likely from eastern WY across parts of NE and SD, southern MN, northern WI and into western Upper MI. Vigorous convection will likely produce large hail at times, with favorable mid and high level flow elongating hodographs despite the main wave well north of the region. Elsewhere, more isolated storms will be possible extending south along the dryline from southwest NE into western KS and far eastern NM. Locally strong gusts and brief hail may occur, but shear will be weak. ..Jewell.. 06/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected Sunday evening and overnight from parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, with hail the primary risk. ...Synopsis... On Sunday, an upper trough will move east/northeast across MT and the far northern Plains, becoming negatively tilted as the parent low moves into MB. Meanwhile, a lead wave will move quickly east across the Great Lakes region around the north side of a strong upper ridge. Late in the period, height falls will again increase across the Pacific NW into the Rockies as another trough amplifies there. At the surface, a nearly stationary front will extend roughly from northeast CO into southern MN, with a weak lee trough from eastern CO into NM. A prominent surface ridge will extend from the high pressure center over the Mid Atlantic southwestward toward the Gulf Coast. A broad area of southwest winds around 850 mb will maintain a warm low-level air mass south of the stationary front across the Plains and around the upper ridge as warmer air spreads east across the Great Lakes. The presence of a moist and unstable air mass in the vicinity of the stationary front should be the primary focus for scattered storms, some severe, late in the day and overnight from eastern WY toward MN and WI. ...WI into MI Early...then WY to WI Late... Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing Sunday morning over WI, in a region of low-level warm advection, and where elevated instability will be substantial. This activity will progress quickly east toward Upper MI and perhaps northern Lower MI, with a general weakening trend. However, marginal hail cannot be ruled out especially early in the day. Behind this wave of activity, strong instability will develop. However, lift will be quite weak as temporary height rises occur. Still, a weak surface boundary along with peak heating could initiate isolated cells capable of hail from MN into WI during the late afternoon. More likely, most of the activity will hold off until after 00Z, as elevated instability builds back north. Between 03-06Z, scattered storms will be likely from eastern WY across parts of NE and SD, southern MN, northern WI and into western Upper MI. Vigorous convection will likely produce large hail at times, with favorable mid and high level flow elongating hodographs despite the main wave well north of the region. Elsewhere, more isolated storms will be possible extending south along the dryline from southwest NE into western KS and far eastern NM. Locally strong gusts and brief hail may occur, but shear will be weak. ..Jewell.. 06/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NE/WESTERN IA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTHEAST KS...NORTHWEST MO...SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHERN MN...AND ALSO FROM EASTERN MT INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening, both across the Mid-Missouri Valley and also from eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple of tornadic storms may occur in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, with isolated significant severe hail and wind possible across parts of the northern Great Plains. ...Eastern NE/northeast KS into western IA... A weakening or decayed MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere from extreme eastern NE into western IA. In the wake of this feature, an outflow-reinforced front will likely begin lifting northward across some part of eastern NE into western IA through the day. Diurnal heating will support moderate to strong destabilization, both within a richly moist environment near/north of the front, and within a somewhat hotter and more well-mixed environment south of the front. As a mid/upper-level trough (with multiple embedded vorticity maxima) approaches the mid MO Valley, and MLCINH diminishes during the afternoon, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible. Along and immediately north of the front, favorable instability, seasonably strong low-level flow, and a favorably veered wind profile in the lowest 3 km will be favorable for tornadic supercells, though rather modest flow above 3 km may result in a tendency for a cluster or complex storm mode with time. Any supercells that can be sustained within this regime would pose a tornado threat, in addition to hail and damaging-wind potential. However, considerable uncertainty remains, both regarding the frontal position during the time of storm initiation, and also the longevity of a more discrete supercell mode. The 5% tornado area has been expanded somewhat to account for the spatial uncertainty. Some modest upscale growth will be possible later in the storm evolution, which could result in a threat for damaging wind and possibly a line-embedded tornado or two spreading east-northeastward into parts of central IA and southern MN during the evening. ...Northern Great Plains... A rather strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the Northwest and northern Rockies later today, and begin approaching the northern High Plains tonight. A surface cyclone is forecast to deepen near the MT/WY border during the day, and then move northeastward across the western Dakotas vicinity this evening. Near and east of the surface cyclone, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1500-2500 J/kg range from parts of eastern MT into the Dakotas, while stronger deep-layer flow/shear attendant to the approaching shortwave will begin impinging on the warm sector by late afternoon into the evening. Storm development is expected by late afternoon from eastern MT/WY into the western Dakotas, with development of one or more intense storm clusters possible by early evening. Large to very large hail could accompany any sustained supercells within this regime, especially from eastern MT into western ND. Isolated significant severe gusts will also be possible, especially in areas where stronger heating/mixing occurs, and also in association with any more organized upscale growth. A tornado or two will also be possible, especially if any supercell across western ND can be sustained into the evening, when a notable increase in low-level flow/shear will be possible. ...Southern High Plains vicinity... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern High Plains, and also across the higher terrain of southwest TX. Moderate buoyancy and marginally favorable deep-layer shear could support a couple of modestly organized storms. Isolated severe gusts will be possible within a generally hot and well-mixed environment, along with some potential for hail. ..Dean/Thornton.. 06/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NE/WESTERN IA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTHEAST KS...NORTHWEST MO...SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHERN MN...AND ALSO FROM EASTERN MT INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening, both across the Mid-Missouri Valley and also from eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple of tornadic storms may occur in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, with isolated significant severe hail and wind possible across parts of the northern Great Plains. ...Eastern NE/northeast KS into western IA... A weakening or decayed MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere from extreme eastern NE into western IA. In the wake of this feature, an outflow-reinforced front will likely begin lifting northward across some part of eastern NE into western IA through the day. Diurnal heating will support moderate to strong destabilization, both within a richly moist environment near/north of the front, and within a somewhat hotter and more well-mixed environment south of the front. As a mid/upper-level trough (with multiple embedded vorticity maxima) approaches the mid MO Valley, and MLCINH diminishes during the afternoon, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible. Along and immediately north of the front, favorable instability, seasonably strong low-level flow, and a favorably veered wind profile in the lowest 3 km will be favorable for tornadic supercells, though rather modest flow above 3 km may result in a tendency for a cluster or complex storm mode with time. Any supercells that can be sustained within this regime would pose a tornado threat, in addition to hail and damaging-wind potential. However, considerable uncertainty remains, both regarding the frontal position during the time of storm initiation, and also the longevity of a more discrete supercell mode. The 5% tornado area has been expanded somewhat to account for the spatial uncertainty. Some modest upscale growth will be possible later in the storm evolution, which could result in a threat for damaging wind and possibly a line-embedded tornado or two spreading east-northeastward into parts of central IA and southern MN during the evening. ...Northern Great Plains... A rather strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the Northwest and northern Rockies later today, and begin approaching the northern High Plains tonight. A surface cyclone is forecast to deepen near the MT/WY border during the day, and then move northeastward across the western Dakotas vicinity this evening. Near and east of the surface cyclone, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1500-2500 J/kg range from parts of eastern MT into the Dakotas, while stronger deep-layer flow/shear attendant to the approaching shortwave will begin impinging on the warm sector by late afternoon into the evening. Storm development is expected by late afternoon from eastern MT/WY into the western Dakotas, with development of one or more intense storm clusters possible by early evening. Large to very large hail could accompany any sustained supercells within this regime, especially from eastern MT into western ND. Isolated significant severe gusts will also be possible, especially in areas where stronger heating/mixing occurs, and also in association with any more organized upscale growth. A tornado or two will also be possible, especially if any supercell across western ND can be sustained into the evening, when a notable increase in low-level flow/shear will be possible. ...Southern High Plains vicinity... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern High Plains, and also across the higher terrain of southwest TX. Moderate buoyancy and marginally favorable deep-layer shear could support a couple of modestly organized storms. Isolated severe gusts will be possible within a generally hot and well-mixed environment, along with some potential for hail. ..Dean/Thornton.. 06/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NE/WESTERN IA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTHEAST KS...NORTHWEST MO...SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHERN MN...AND ALSO FROM EASTERN MT INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening, both across the Mid-Missouri Valley and also from eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple of tornadic storms may occur in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, with isolated significant severe hail and wind possible across parts of the northern Great Plains. ...Eastern NE/northeast KS into western IA... A weakening or decayed MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere from extreme eastern NE into western IA. In the wake of this feature, an outflow-reinforced front will likely begin lifting northward across some part of eastern NE into western IA through the day. Diurnal heating will support moderate to strong destabilization, both within a richly moist environment near/north of the front, and within a somewhat hotter and more well-mixed environment south of the front. As a mid/upper-level trough (with multiple embedded vorticity maxima) approaches the mid MO Valley, and MLCINH diminishes during the afternoon, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible. Along and immediately north of the front, favorable instability, seasonably strong low-level flow, and a favorably veered wind profile in the lowest 3 km will be favorable for tornadic supercells, though rather modest flow above 3 km may result in a tendency for a cluster or complex storm mode with time. Any supercells that can be sustained within this regime would pose a tornado threat, in addition to hail and damaging-wind potential. However, considerable uncertainty remains, both regarding the frontal position during the time of storm initiation, and also the longevity of a more discrete supercell mode. The 5% tornado area has been expanded somewhat to account for the spatial uncertainty. Some modest upscale growth will be possible later in the storm evolution, which could result in a threat for damaging wind and possibly a line-embedded tornado or two spreading east-northeastward into parts of central IA and southern MN during the evening. ...Northern Great Plains... A rather strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the Northwest and northern Rockies later today, and begin approaching the northern High Plains tonight. A surface cyclone is forecast to deepen near the MT/WY border during the day, and then move northeastward across the western Dakotas vicinity this evening. Near and east of the surface cyclone, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1500-2500 J/kg range from parts of eastern MT into the Dakotas, while stronger deep-layer flow/shear attendant to the approaching shortwave will begin impinging on the warm sector by late afternoon into the evening. Storm development is expected by late afternoon from eastern MT/WY into the western Dakotas, with development of one or more intense storm clusters possible by early evening. Large to very large hail could accompany any sustained supercells within this regime, especially from eastern MT into western ND. Isolated significant severe gusts will also be possible, especially in areas where stronger heating/mixing occurs, and also in association with any more organized upscale growth. A tornado or two will also be possible, especially if any supercell across western ND can be sustained into the evening, when a notable increase in low-level flow/shear will be possible. ...Southern High Plains vicinity... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern High Plains, and also across the higher terrain of southwest TX. Moderate buoyancy and marginally favorable deep-layer shear could support a couple of modestly organized storms. Isolated severe gusts will be possible within a generally hot and well-mixed environment, along with some potential for hail. ..Dean/Thornton.. 06/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NE/WESTERN IA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTHEAST KS...NORTHWEST MO...SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHERN MN...AND ALSO FROM EASTERN MT INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening, both across the Mid-Missouri Valley and also from eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple of tornadic storms may occur in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, with isolated significant severe hail and wind possible across parts of the northern Great Plains. ...Eastern NE/northeast KS into western IA... A weakening or decayed MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere from extreme eastern NE into western IA. In the wake of this feature, an outflow-reinforced front will likely begin lifting northward across some part of eastern NE into western IA through the day. Diurnal heating will support moderate to strong destabilization, both within a richly moist environment near/north of the front, and within a somewhat hotter and more well-mixed environment south of the front. As a mid/upper-level trough (with multiple embedded vorticity maxima) approaches the mid MO Valley, and MLCINH diminishes during the afternoon, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible. Along and immediately north of the front, favorable instability, seasonably strong low-level flow, and a favorably veered wind profile in the lowest 3 km will be favorable for tornadic supercells, though rather modest flow above 3 km may result in a tendency for a cluster or complex storm mode with time. Any supercells that can be sustained within this regime would pose a tornado threat, in addition to hail and damaging-wind potential. However, considerable uncertainty remains, both regarding the frontal position during the time of storm initiation, and also the longevity of a more discrete supercell mode. The 5% tornado area has been expanded somewhat to account for the spatial uncertainty. Some modest upscale growth will be possible later in the storm evolution, which could result in a threat for damaging wind and possibly a line-embedded tornado or two spreading east-northeastward into parts of central IA and southern MN during the evening. ...Northern Great Plains... A rather strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the Northwest and northern Rockies later today, and begin approaching the northern High Plains tonight. A surface cyclone is forecast to deepen near the MT/WY border during the day, and then move northeastward across the western Dakotas vicinity this evening. Near and east of the surface cyclone, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1500-2500 J/kg range from parts of eastern MT into the Dakotas, while stronger deep-layer flow/shear attendant to the approaching shortwave will begin impinging on the warm sector by late afternoon into the evening. Storm development is expected by late afternoon from eastern MT/WY into the western Dakotas, with development of one or more intense storm clusters possible by early evening. Large to very large hail could accompany any sustained supercells within this regime, especially from eastern MT into western ND. Isolated significant severe gusts will also be possible, especially in areas where stronger heating/mixing occurs, and also in association with any more organized upscale growth. A tornado or two will also be possible, especially if any supercell across western ND can be sustained into the evening, when a notable increase in low-level flow/shear will be possible. ...Southern High Plains vicinity... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern High Plains, and also across the higher terrain of southwest TX. Moderate buoyancy and marginally favorable deep-layer shear could support a couple of modestly organized storms. Isolated severe gusts will be possible within a generally hot and well-mixed environment, along with some potential for hail. ..Dean/Thornton.. 06/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NE/WESTERN IA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTHEAST KS...NORTHWEST MO...SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHERN MN...AND ALSO FROM EASTERN MT INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening, both across the Mid-Missouri Valley and also from eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple of tornadic storms may occur in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, with isolated significant severe hail and wind possible across parts of the northern Great Plains. ...Eastern NE/northeast KS into western IA... A weakening or decayed MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere from extreme eastern NE into western IA. In the wake of this feature, an outflow-reinforced front will likely begin lifting northward across some part of eastern NE into western IA through the day. Diurnal heating will support moderate to strong destabilization, both within a richly moist environment near/north of the front, and within a somewhat hotter and more well-mixed environment south of the front. As a mid/upper-level trough (with multiple embedded vorticity maxima) approaches the mid MO Valley, and MLCINH diminishes during the afternoon, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible. Along and immediately north of the front, favorable instability, seasonably strong low-level flow, and a favorably veered wind profile in the lowest 3 km will be favorable for tornadic supercells, though rather modest flow above 3 km may result in a tendency for a cluster or complex storm mode with time. Any supercells that can be sustained within this regime would pose a tornado threat, in addition to hail and damaging-wind potential. However, considerable uncertainty remains, both regarding the frontal position during the time of storm initiation, and also the longevity of a more discrete supercell mode. The 5% tornado area has been expanded somewhat to account for the spatial uncertainty. Some modest upscale growth will be possible later in the storm evolution, which could result in a threat for damaging wind and possibly a line-embedded tornado or two spreading east-northeastward into parts of central IA and southern MN during the evening. ...Northern Great Plains... A rather strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the Northwest and northern Rockies later today, and begin approaching the northern High Plains tonight. A surface cyclone is forecast to deepen near the MT/WY border during the day, and then move northeastward across the western Dakotas vicinity this evening. Near and east of the surface cyclone, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1500-2500 J/kg range from parts of eastern MT into the Dakotas, while stronger deep-layer flow/shear attendant to the approaching shortwave will begin impinging on the warm sector by late afternoon into the evening. Storm development is expected by late afternoon from eastern MT/WY into the western Dakotas, with development of one or more intense storm clusters possible by early evening. Large to very large hail could accompany any sustained supercells within this regime, especially from eastern MT into western ND. Isolated significant severe gusts will also be possible, especially in areas where stronger heating/mixing occurs, and also in association with any more organized upscale growth. A tornado or two will also be possible, especially if any supercell across western ND can be sustained into the evening, when a notable increase in low-level flow/shear will be possible. ...Southern High Plains vicinity... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern High Plains, and also across the higher terrain of southwest TX. Moderate buoyancy and marginally favorable deep-layer shear could support a couple of modestly organized storms. Isolated severe gusts will be possible within a generally hot and well-mixed environment, along with some potential for hail. ..Dean/Thornton.. 06/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NE/WESTERN IA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTHEAST KS...NORTHWEST MO...SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHERN MN...AND ALSO FROM EASTERN MT INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening, both across the Mid-Missouri Valley and also from eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple of tornadic storms may occur in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, with isolated significant severe hail and wind possible across parts of the northern Great Plains. ...Eastern NE/northeast KS into western IA... A weakening or decayed MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere from extreme eastern NE into western IA. In the wake of this feature, an outflow-reinforced front will likely begin lifting northward across some part of eastern NE into western IA through the day. Diurnal heating will support moderate to strong destabilization, both within a richly moist environment near/north of the front, and within a somewhat hotter and more well-mixed environment south of the front. As a mid/upper-level trough (with multiple embedded vorticity maxima) approaches the mid MO Valley, and MLCINH diminishes during the afternoon, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible. Along and immediately north of the front, favorable instability, seasonably strong low-level flow, and a favorably veered wind profile in the lowest 3 km will be favorable for tornadic supercells, though rather modest flow above 3 km may result in a tendency for a cluster or complex storm mode with time. Any supercells that can be sustained within this regime would pose a tornado threat, in addition to hail and damaging-wind potential. However, considerable uncertainty remains, both regarding the frontal position during the time of storm initiation, and also the longevity of a more discrete supercell mode. The 5% tornado area has been expanded somewhat to account for the spatial uncertainty. Some modest upscale growth will be possible later in the storm evolution, which could result in a threat for damaging wind and possibly a line-embedded tornado or two spreading east-northeastward into parts of central IA and southern MN during the evening. ...Northern Great Plains... A rather strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the Northwest and northern Rockies later today, and begin approaching the northern High Plains tonight. A surface cyclone is forecast to deepen near the MT/WY border during the day, and then move northeastward across the western Dakotas vicinity this evening. Near and east of the surface cyclone, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1500-2500 J/kg range from parts of eastern MT into the Dakotas, while stronger deep-layer flow/shear attendant to the approaching shortwave will begin impinging on the warm sector by late afternoon into the evening. Storm development is expected by late afternoon from eastern MT/WY into the western Dakotas, with development of one or more intense storm clusters possible by early evening. Large to very large hail could accompany any sustained supercells within this regime, especially from eastern MT into western ND. Isolated significant severe gusts will also be possible, especially in areas where stronger heating/mixing occurs, and also in association with any more organized upscale growth. A tornado or two will also be possible, especially if any supercell across western ND can be sustained into the evening, when a notable increase in low-level flow/shear will be possible. ...Southern High Plains vicinity... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern High Plains, and also across the higher terrain of southwest TX. Moderate buoyancy and marginally favorable deep-layer shear could support a couple of modestly organized storms. Isolated severe gusts will be possible within a generally hot and well-mixed environment, along with some potential for hail. ..Dean/Thornton.. 06/15/2024 Read more

WW 0416 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 416 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE RSL TO 25 WNW GRI TO 5 WSW BUB. ..LEITMAN..06/15/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...GLD...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 416 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC089-105-123-150640- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JEWELL LINCOLN MITCHELL NEC001-077-079-093-175-181-150640- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS GREELEY HALL HOWARD VALLEY WEBSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0416 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 416 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE RSL TO 25 WNW GRI TO 5 WSW BUB. ..LEITMAN..06/15/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...GLD...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 416 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC089-105-123-150640- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JEWELL LINCOLN MITCHELL NEC001-077-079-093-175-181-150640- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS GREELEY HALL HOWARD VALLEY WEBSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more