Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The forecast is largely on track. The Elevated risk area was expanded into portions of southeast Utah to account for expected drier and breezier conditions with somewhat receptive fuels in the area. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 06/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and attendant belt of enhanced west to southwesterly flow moving across the Cascades into the Northern Rockies will bring potential for breezy/dry downslope flow in the lee of the Cascades across western Washington/northern Oregon within the Columbia Basin on Saturday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph amid drying fuels. Locally Critical fire weather concerns will be possible, though Critical winds appear too localized to include any areas at this time. Additionally, some Elevated fire weather conditions are likely in the Snake River Plain in Idaho where sustained winds around 30-35 mph will overlap 15-20% RH and modestly receptive fuels. Ahead of the western US trough, a surface trough across southern Nevada into western Arizona will bring breezy/dry conditions across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah and northwestern Arizona, where relative humidity reductions into the teens to single digits will overlap sustained southwesterly flow around 10-15 mph within critically dry fuels. Given sub-critical winds, an Elevated delineation covers this threat well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening across the Mid-Missouri Valley and also from eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple of tornadoes could occur in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, with isolated significant severe hail and wind possible across parts of the northern Great Plains. ...Eastern Nebraska to Iowa/northwest Missouri/southern Minnesota... An MCS has largely weakened and trended downscale overnight as it has progressed eastward across western Iowa/northwest Missouri, with outflow extending from these areas west-southeastward into northeast Kansas in proximity to a synoptic stationary/warm front. At least one MCV is evident across the Siouxland vicinity early this morning, with an additional MCV across west-central Nebraska. The aforementioned front will move north-northeastward toward parts of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa today. Diurnal heating will support moderate to strong destabilization, both within a richly moist environment near/north of the front, and within a somewhat hotter and more well-mixed environment south/southwest of the front. As a mid/upper-level trough (with multiple embedded vorticity maxima) approaches the Middle Missouri Valley, and MLCINH diminishes during the afternoon, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible, especially across east/southeast Nebraska and western Iowa and perhaps far northwest Missouri. Along and immediately north of the front, favorable instability, seasonably strong MCV-aided low-level flow, and a favorably veered wind profile in the lowest 3 km AGL will be favorable for tornadic supercells. Rather modest/somewhat backed mid-level flow may result in a tendency for a cluster or complex HP storm mode with time. Any supercells that can be sustained within this regime could pose a tornado threat, in addition to hail and damaging-wind potential. Some modest upscale growth will be possible later in the storm evolution, which could result in a threat for damaging winds and possibly a line-embedded tornado or two spreading east-northeastward into parts of central Iowa and southern Minnesota this evening. ...Northern Great Plains including Eastern Montana and Dakotas... A strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies later today, and approach the northern High Plains tonight. A surface cyclone will deepen near the Montana/Wyoming border vicinity during the day, and then move northeastward across the western Dakotas vicinity this evening. Near and east of the surface cyclone, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1500-2500 J/kg range from parts of eastern Montana into the Dakotas, while stronger deep-layer flow/shear attendant to the approaching shortwave will begin impinging on the warm sector by late afternoon into the evening. Storm development is expected by late afternoon from eastern portions of Montana and Wyoming into the western Dakotas, with development of one or more intense storm clusters possible by early evening. Large to very large hail could accompany any sustained supercells within this regime, especially from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. Isolated significant severe gusts will also be possible, especially in areas where stronger heating/mixing occurs, and also in association with any more organized quasi-linear upscale growth. A tornado or two could also occur, especially if any supercell across western North Dakota can be sustained into the evening, when an increase in low-level flow/SRH is expected. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from mid-afternoon through early evening across parts of the southern High Plains, including the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles southward to the Permian Basin/Transpecos. Moderate buoyancy and marginally favorable deep-layer shear could support a couple of modestly organized storms. Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible within a generally hot and well-mixed environment, along with some potential for hail. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening across the Mid-Missouri Valley and also from eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple of tornadoes could occur in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, with isolated significant severe hail and wind possible across parts of the northern Great Plains. ...Eastern Nebraska to Iowa/northwest Missouri/southern Minnesota... An MCS has largely weakened and trended downscale overnight as it has progressed eastward across western Iowa/northwest Missouri, with outflow extending from these areas west-southeastward into northeast Kansas in proximity to a synoptic stationary/warm front. At least one MCV is evident across the Siouxland vicinity early this morning, with an additional MCV across west-central Nebraska. The aforementioned front will move north-northeastward toward parts of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa today. Diurnal heating will support moderate to strong destabilization, both within a richly moist environment near/north of the front, and within a somewhat hotter and more well-mixed environment south/southwest of the front. As a mid/upper-level trough (with multiple embedded vorticity maxima) approaches the Middle Missouri Valley, and MLCINH diminishes during the afternoon, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible, especially across east/southeast Nebraska and western Iowa and perhaps far northwest Missouri. Along and immediately north of the front, favorable instability, seasonably strong MCV-aided low-level flow, and a favorably veered wind profile in the lowest 3 km AGL will be favorable for tornadic supercells. Rather modest/somewhat backed mid-level flow may result in a tendency for a cluster or complex HP storm mode with time. Any supercells that can be sustained within this regime could pose a tornado threat, in addition to hail and damaging-wind potential. Some modest upscale growth will be possible later in the storm evolution, which could result in a threat for damaging winds and possibly a line-embedded tornado or two spreading east-northeastward into parts of central Iowa and southern Minnesota this evening. ...Northern Great Plains including Eastern Montana and Dakotas... A strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies later today, and approach the northern High Plains tonight. A surface cyclone will deepen near the Montana/Wyoming border vicinity during the day, and then move northeastward across the western Dakotas vicinity this evening. Near and east of the surface cyclone, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1500-2500 J/kg range from parts of eastern Montana into the Dakotas, while stronger deep-layer flow/shear attendant to the approaching shortwave will begin impinging on the warm sector by late afternoon into the evening. Storm development is expected by late afternoon from eastern portions of Montana and Wyoming into the western Dakotas, with development of one or more intense storm clusters possible by early evening. Large to very large hail could accompany any sustained supercells within this regime, especially from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. Isolated significant severe gusts will also be possible, especially in areas where stronger heating/mixing occurs, and also in association with any more organized quasi-linear upscale growth. A tornado or two could also occur, especially if any supercell across western North Dakota can be sustained into the evening, when an increase in low-level flow/SRH is expected. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from mid-afternoon through early evening across parts of the southern High Plains, including the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles southward to the Permian Basin/Transpecos. Moderate buoyancy and marginally favorable deep-layer shear could support a couple of modestly organized storms. Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible within a generally hot and well-mixed environment, along with some potential for hail. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening across the Mid-Missouri Valley and also from eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple of tornadoes could occur in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, with isolated significant severe hail and wind possible across parts of the northern Great Plains. ...Eastern Nebraska to Iowa/northwest Missouri/southern Minnesota... An MCS has largely weakened and trended downscale overnight as it has progressed eastward across western Iowa/northwest Missouri, with outflow extending from these areas west-southeastward into northeast Kansas in proximity to a synoptic stationary/warm front. At least one MCV is evident across the Siouxland vicinity early this morning, with an additional MCV across west-central Nebraska. The aforementioned front will move north-northeastward toward parts of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa today. Diurnal heating will support moderate to strong destabilization, both within a richly moist environment near/north of the front, and within a somewhat hotter and more well-mixed environment south/southwest of the front. As a mid/upper-level trough (with multiple embedded vorticity maxima) approaches the Middle Missouri Valley, and MLCINH diminishes during the afternoon, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible, especially across east/southeast Nebraska and western Iowa and perhaps far northwest Missouri. Along and immediately north of the front, favorable instability, seasonably strong MCV-aided low-level flow, and a favorably veered wind profile in the lowest 3 km AGL will be favorable for tornadic supercells. Rather modest/somewhat backed mid-level flow may result in a tendency for a cluster or complex HP storm mode with time. Any supercells that can be sustained within this regime could pose a tornado threat, in addition to hail and damaging-wind potential. Some modest upscale growth will be possible later in the storm evolution, which could result in a threat for damaging winds and possibly a line-embedded tornado or two spreading east-northeastward into parts of central Iowa and southern Minnesota this evening. ...Northern Great Plains including Eastern Montana and Dakotas... A strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies later today, and approach the northern High Plains tonight. A surface cyclone will deepen near the Montana/Wyoming border vicinity during the day, and then move northeastward across the western Dakotas vicinity this evening. Near and east of the surface cyclone, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1500-2500 J/kg range from parts of eastern Montana into the Dakotas, while stronger deep-layer flow/shear attendant to the approaching shortwave will begin impinging on the warm sector by late afternoon into the evening. Storm development is expected by late afternoon from eastern portions of Montana and Wyoming into the western Dakotas, with development of one or more intense storm clusters possible by early evening. Large to very large hail could accompany any sustained supercells within this regime, especially from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. Isolated significant severe gusts will also be possible, especially in areas where stronger heating/mixing occurs, and also in association with any more organized quasi-linear upscale growth. A tornado or two could also occur, especially if any supercell across western North Dakota can be sustained into the evening, when an increase in low-level flow/SRH is expected. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from mid-afternoon through early evening across parts of the southern High Plains, including the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles southward to the Permian Basin/Transpecos. Moderate buoyancy and marginally favorable deep-layer shear could support a couple of modestly organized storms. Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible within a generally hot and well-mixed environment, along with some potential for hail. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening across the Mid-Missouri Valley and also from eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple of tornadoes could occur in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, with isolated significant severe hail and wind possible across parts of the northern Great Plains. ...Eastern Nebraska to Iowa/northwest Missouri/southern Minnesota... An MCS has largely weakened and trended downscale overnight as it has progressed eastward across western Iowa/northwest Missouri, with outflow extending from these areas west-southeastward into northeast Kansas in proximity to a synoptic stationary/warm front. At least one MCV is evident across the Siouxland vicinity early this morning, with an additional MCV across west-central Nebraska. The aforementioned front will move north-northeastward toward parts of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa today. Diurnal heating will support moderate to strong destabilization, both within a richly moist environment near/north of the front, and within a somewhat hotter and more well-mixed environment south/southwest of the front. As a mid/upper-level trough (with multiple embedded vorticity maxima) approaches the Middle Missouri Valley, and MLCINH diminishes during the afternoon, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible, especially across east/southeast Nebraska and western Iowa and perhaps far northwest Missouri. Along and immediately north of the front, favorable instability, seasonably strong MCV-aided low-level flow, and a favorably veered wind profile in the lowest 3 km AGL will be favorable for tornadic supercells. Rather modest/somewhat backed mid-level flow may result in a tendency for a cluster or complex HP storm mode with time. Any supercells that can be sustained within this regime could pose a tornado threat, in addition to hail and damaging-wind potential. Some modest upscale growth will be possible later in the storm evolution, which could result in a threat for damaging winds and possibly a line-embedded tornado or two spreading east-northeastward into parts of central Iowa and southern Minnesota this evening. ...Northern Great Plains including Eastern Montana and Dakotas... A strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies later today, and approach the northern High Plains tonight. A surface cyclone will deepen near the Montana/Wyoming border vicinity during the day, and then move northeastward across the western Dakotas vicinity this evening. Near and east of the surface cyclone, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1500-2500 J/kg range from parts of eastern Montana into the Dakotas, while stronger deep-layer flow/shear attendant to the approaching shortwave will begin impinging on the warm sector by late afternoon into the evening. Storm development is expected by late afternoon from eastern portions of Montana and Wyoming into the western Dakotas, with development of one or more intense storm clusters possible by early evening. Large to very large hail could accompany any sustained supercells within this regime, especially from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. Isolated significant severe gusts will also be possible, especially in areas where stronger heating/mixing occurs, and also in association with any more organized quasi-linear upscale growth. A tornado or two could also occur, especially if any supercell across western North Dakota can be sustained into the evening, when an increase in low-level flow/SRH is expected. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from mid-afternoon through early evening across parts of the southern High Plains, including the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles southward to the Permian Basin/Transpecos. Moderate buoyancy and marginally favorable deep-layer shear could support a couple of modestly organized storms. Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible within a generally hot and well-mixed environment, along with some potential for hail. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/15/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... For the period, a strong upper ridge is forecast to remain over the East. An upper trough will move into the northern Plains on Tuesday/D4 and Wednesday/D5, with most of the energy moving into eastern Canada thereafter. To the west, only a weak upper trough is forecast. Thunderstorms will be possible from MN southwestward into the central Plains on Tuesday/D4 along a cold front, and some severe threat appears likely as the stronger midlevel southwesterlies extend from MN into NE. Instability will begin to be limited by warming temperatures aloft, but ample low-level moisture will remain ahead off the cold front with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints common. Front-parallel flow and a progressive cold front will likely yield areas of damaging wind potential, and a 15% area has been introduced near the surface low over northern Minnesota. Severe storms chances are forecast to lessen by Wednesday/D5 over the Plains/Upper MS Valley as the stronger winds aloft shift out of the area. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... For the period, a strong upper ridge is forecast to remain over the East. An upper trough will move into the northern Plains on Tuesday/D4 and Wednesday/D5, with most of the energy moving into eastern Canada thereafter. To the west, only a weak upper trough is forecast. Thunderstorms will be possible from MN southwestward into the central Plains on Tuesday/D4 along a cold front, and some severe threat appears likely as the stronger midlevel southwesterlies extend from MN into NE. Instability will begin to be limited by warming temperatures aloft, but ample low-level moisture will remain ahead off the cold front with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints common. Front-parallel flow and a progressive cold front will likely yield areas of damaging wind potential, and a 15% area has been introduced near the surface low over northern Minnesota. Severe storms chances are forecast to lessen by Wednesday/D5 over the Plains/Upper MS Valley as the stronger winds aloft shift out of the area. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... For the period, a strong upper ridge is forecast to remain over the East. An upper trough will move into the northern Plains on Tuesday/D4 and Wednesday/D5, with most of the energy moving into eastern Canada thereafter. To the west, only a weak upper trough is forecast. Thunderstorms will be possible from MN southwestward into the central Plains on Tuesday/D4 along a cold front, and some severe threat appears likely as the stronger midlevel southwesterlies extend from MN into NE. Instability will begin to be limited by warming temperatures aloft, but ample low-level moisture will remain ahead off the cold front with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints common. Front-parallel flow and a progressive cold front will likely yield areas of damaging wind potential, and a 15% area has been introduced near the surface low over northern Minnesota. Severe storms chances are forecast to lessen by Wednesday/D5 over the Plains/Upper MS Valley as the stronger winds aloft shift out of the area. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... For the period, a strong upper ridge is forecast to remain over the East. An upper trough will move into the northern Plains on Tuesday/D4 and Wednesday/D5, with most of the energy moving into eastern Canada thereafter. To the west, only a weak upper trough is forecast. Thunderstorms will be possible from MN southwestward into the central Plains on Tuesday/D4 along a cold front, and some severe threat appears likely as the stronger midlevel southwesterlies extend from MN into NE. Instability will begin to be limited by warming temperatures aloft, but ample low-level moisture will remain ahead off the cold front with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints common. Front-parallel flow and a progressive cold front will likely yield areas of damaging wind potential, and a 15% area has been introduced near the surface low over northern Minnesota. Severe storms chances are forecast to lessen by Wednesday/D5 over the Plains/Upper MS Valley as the stronger winds aloft shift out of the area. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... For the period, a strong upper ridge is forecast to remain over the East. An upper trough will move into the northern Plains on Tuesday/D4 and Wednesday/D5, with most of the energy moving into eastern Canada thereafter. To the west, only a weak upper trough is forecast. Thunderstorms will be possible from MN southwestward into the central Plains on Tuesday/D4 along a cold front, and some severe threat appears likely as the stronger midlevel southwesterlies extend from MN into NE. Instability will begin to be limited by warming temperatures aloft, but ample low-level moisture will remain ahead off the cold front with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints common. Front-parallel flow and a progressive cold front will likely yield areas of damaging wind potential, and a 15% area has been introduced near the surface low over northern Minnesota. Severe storms chances are forecast to lessen by Wednesday/D5 over the Plains/Upper MS Valley as the stronger winds aloft shift out of the area. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... For the period, a strong upper ridge is forecast to remain over the East. An upper trough will move into the northern Plains on Tuesday/D4 and Wednesday/D5, with most of the energy moving into eastern Canada thereafter. To the west, only a weak upper trough is forecast. Thunderstorms will be possible from MN southwestward into the central Plains on Tuesday/D4 along a cold front, and some severe threat appears likely as the stronger midlevel southwesterlies extend from MN into NE. Instability will begin to be limited by warming temperatures aloft, but ample low-level moisture will remain ahead off the cold front with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints common. Front-parallel flow and a progressive cold front will likely yield areas of damaging wind potential, and a 15% area has been introduced near the surface low over northern Minnesota. Severe storms chances are forecast to lessen by Wednesday/D5 over the Plains/Upper MS Valley as the stronger winds aloft shift out of the area. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday mainly from the Dakotas into Minnesota. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Monday, a lead wave associated with early day storms will move across the eastern Dakotas and MN and toward Lake Superior by afternoon, with temporary height rises. Meanwhile, a front will gradually shift north as the air mass recovers, reaching eastern SD into central MN and northern WI by late afternoon. South of this front, a moist air mass will exist with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints and warming temperatures resulting in moderate instability. To the west, an upper trough will gradually move across the Rockies with strengthening mid and high level southwesterlies into the northern Plains. Winds aloft will be nearly parallel to the surface front, which should act as the focus for development late in the day and into the night. Given only gradual height falls, low-level warm advection aided by 50 kt 850 mb winds looks to be the main lifting mechanism. Forecast soundings show strong elevated instability developing north of the front, which appears favorable for hail. Any organized clusters in proximity to the boundary and moving parallel to it could perhaps produce locally damaging gusts as well. ..Jewell.. 06/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday mainly from the Dakotas into Minnesota. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Monday, a lead wave associated with early day storms will move across the eastern Dakotas and MN and toward Lake Superior by afternoon, with temporary height rises. Meanwhile, a front will gradually shift north as the air mass recovers, reaching eastern SD into central MN and northern WI by late afternoon. South of this front, a moist air mass will exist with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints and warming temperatures resulting in moderate instability. To the west, an upper trough will gradually move across the Rockies with strengthening mid and high level southwesterlies into the northern Plains. Winds aloft will be nearly parallel to the surface front, which should act as the focus for development late in the day and into the night. Given only gradual height falls, low-level warm advection aided by 50 kt 850 mb winds looks to be the main lifting mechanism. Forecast soundings show strong elevated instability developing north of the front, which appears favorable for hail. Any organized clusters in proximity to the boundary and moving parallel to it could perhaps produce locally damaging gusts as well. ..Jewell.. 06/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday mainly from the Dakotas into Minnesota. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Monday, a lead wave associated with early day storms will move across the eastern Dakotas and MN and toward Lake Superior by afternoon, with temporary height rises. Meanwhile, a front will gradually shift north as the air mass recovers, reaching eastern SD into central MN and northern WI by late afternoon. South of this front, a moist air mass will exist with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints and warming temperatures resulting in moderate instability. To the west, an upper trough will gradually move across the Rockies with strengthening mid and high level southwesterlies into the northern Plains. Winds aloft will be nearly parallel to the surface front, which should act as the focus for development late in the day and into the night. Given only gradual height falls, low-level warm advection aided by 50 kt 850 mb winds looks to be the main lifting mechanism. Forecast soundings show strong elevated instability developing north of the front, which appears favorable for hail. Any organized clusters in proximity to the boundary and moving parallel to it could perhaps produce locally damaging gusts as well. ..Jewell.. 06/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday mainly from the Dakotas into Minnesota. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Monday, a lead wave associated with early day storms will move across the eastern Dakotas and MN and toward Lake Superior by afternoon, with temporary height rises. Meanwhile, a front will gradually shift north as the air mass recovers, reaching eastern SD into central MN and northern WI by late afternoon. South of this front, a moist air mass will exist with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints and warming temperatures resulting in moderate instability. To the west, an upper trough will gradually move across the Rockies with strengthening mid and high level southwesterlies into the northern Plains. Winds aloft will be nearly parallel to the surface front, which should act as the focus for development late in the day and into the night. Given only gradual height falls, low-level warm advection aided by 50 kt 850 mb winds looks to be the main lifting mechanism. Forecast soundings show strong elevated instability developing north of the front, which appears favorable for hail. Any organized clusters in proximity to the boundary and moving parallel to it could perhaps produce locally damaging gusts as well. ..Jewell.. 06/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday mainly from the Dakotas into Minnesota. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Monday, a lead wave associated with early day storms will move across the eastern Dakotas and MN and toward Lake Superior by afternoon, with temporary height rises. Meanwhile, a front will gradually shift north as the air mass recovers, reaching eastern SD into central MN and northern WI by late afternoon. South of this front, a moist air mass will exist with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints and warming temperatures resulting in moderate instability. To the west, an upper trough will gradually move across the Rockies with strengthening mid and high level southwesterlies into the northern Plains. Winds aloft will be nearly parallel to the surface front, which should act as the focus for development late in the day and into the night. Given only gradual height falls, low-level warm advection aided by 50 kt 850 mb winds looks to be the main lifting mechanism. Forecast soundings show strong elevated instability developing north of the front, which appears favorable for hail. Any organized clusters in proximity to the boundary and moving parallel to it could perhaps produce locally damaging gusts as well. ..Jewell.. 06/15/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and attendant belt of enhanced west to southwesterly flow moving across the Cascades into the Northern Rockies will bring potential for breezy/dry downslope flow in the lee of the Cascades across western Washington/northern Oregon within the Columbia Basin on Saturday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph amid drying fuels. Locally Critical fire weather concerns will be possible, though Critical winds appear too localized to include any areas at this time. Additionally, some Elevated fire weather conditions are likely in the Snake River Plain in Idaho where sustained winds around 30-35 mph will overlap 15-20% RH and modestly receptive fuels. Ahead of the western US trough, a surface trough across southern Nevada into western Arizona will bring breezy/dry conditions across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah and northwestern Arizona, where relative humidity reductions into the teens to single digits will overlap sustained southwesterly flow around 10-15 mph within critically dry fuels. Given sub-critical winds, an Elevated delineation covers this threat well. ..Thornton.. 06/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and attendant belt of enhanced west to southwesterly flow moving across the Cascades into the Northern Rockies will bring potential for breezy/dry downslope flow in the lee of the Cascades across western Washington/northern Oregon within the Columbia Basin on Saturday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph amid drying fuels. Locally Critical fire weather concerns will be possible, though Critical winds appear too localized to include any areas at this time. Additionally, some Elevated fire weather conditions are likely in the Snake River Plain in Idaho where sustained winds around 30-35 mph will overlap 15-20% RH and modestly receptive fuels. Ahead of the western US trough, a surface trough across southern Nevada into western Arizona will bring breezy/dry conditions across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah and northwestern Arizona, where relative humidity reductions into the teens to single digits will overlap sustained southwesterly flow around 10-15 mph within critically dry fuels. Given sub-critical winds, an Elevated delineation covers this threat well. ..Thornton.. 06/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and attendant belt of enhanced west to southwesterly flow moving across the Cascades into the Northern Rockies will bring potential for breezy/dry downslope flow in the lee of the Cascades across western Washington/northern Oregon within the Columbia Basin on Saturday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph amid drying fuels. Locally Critical fire weather concerns will be possible, though Critical winds appear too localized to include any areas at this time. Additionally, some Elevated fire weather conditions are likely in the Snake River Plain in Idaho where sustained winds around 30-35 mph will overlap 15-20% RH and modestly receptive fuels. Ahead of the western US trough, a surface trough across southern Nevada into western Arizona will bring breezy/dry conditions across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah and northwestern Arizona, where relative humidity reductions into the teens to single digits will overlap sustained southwesterly flow around 10-15 mph within critically dry fuels. Given sub-critical winds, an Elevated delineation covers this threat well. ..Thornton.. 06/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and attendant belt of enhanced west to southwesterly flow moving across the Cascades into the Northern Rockies will bring potential for breezy/dry downslope flow in the lee of the Cascades across western Washington/northern Oregon within the Columbia Basin on Saturday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph amid drying fuels. Locally Critical fire weather concerns will be possible, though Critical winds appear too localized to include any areas at this time. Additionally, some Elevated fire weather conditions are likely in the Snake River Plain in Idaho where sustained winds around 30-35 mph will overlap 15-20% RH and modestly receptive fuels. Ahead of the western US trough, a surface trough across southern Nevada into western Arizona will bring breezy/dry conditions across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah and northwestern Arizona, where relative humidity reductions into the teens to single digits will overlap sustained southwesterly flow around 10-15 mph within critically dry fuels. Given sub-critical winds, an Elevated delineation covers this threat well. ..Thornton.. 06/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more