Severe Storms

MD 1265 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN KANSAS...PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1265 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0604 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Areas affected...Southwestern Nebraska...western Kansas...portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 142304Z - 150000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed downstream of WW414 by 00z. DISCUSSION...Broken linear structures and clusters of thunderstorm activity have been ongoing across portions of western Colorado and New Mexico, with a few instances of severe winds reported in southern Colorado. CAM guidance suggests thunderstorm activity will continue to increase in coverage and merge with deepening cold pools as activity shifts eastward into the central Great Plains this evening. The air mass downstream of WW414 is characterized by MLCAPE around 1000-1400 J/kg and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. An increase in southerly low-level jet is expected along the Colorado/Kansas/Nebraska border through the evening. This will support a continued risk of damaging wind, with gusts 60-75 mph (isolated 75+ mph). Given modest shear profiles, some instances of severe hail will be possible but the main threat will likely continue to be damaging wind. A new Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed downstream of WW414 soon. ..Thornton/Smith.. 06/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA... LAT...LON 41440153 41840094 41869987 41539937 41029907 39619903 38099899 37289931 36550091 36460134 36610203 38780184 41440153 Read more

MD 1264 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 413... FOR OHIO VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 1264 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0536 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Areas affected...Ohio Valley Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413... Valid 142236Z - 150000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms will propagate south across ww413 this evening. DISCUSSION...Northwest flow is deepening across the Ohio Valley early this evening as a pronounced short-wave rough and affiliated mid-level speed max dig southeast across OH/western PA. Primary zone of low-level confluence has now shifted to near the Ohio River and ongoing isolated severe storms, a few supercellular, will propagate south along with it. Hail is the primary risk along with gusty winds, but this activity should gradually encounter less buoyant air, especially over WV where surface dew points are notably lower. ..Darrow.. 06/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... LAT...LON 39008287 40438290 40507947 39057946 39008287 Read more

MD 1263 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 415... FOR MIDDLE ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 1263 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0520 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Areas affected...Middle Atlantic Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415... Valid 142220Z - 142345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415 continues. SUMMARY...Locally damaging winds and marginally severe hail are expected with convection early this evening. DISCUSSION...Weak mid-level short-wave trough is ejecting across the Middle Atlantic early this evening. This feature appears to be aiding a broad corridor of convection that extends from the lower Hudson Valley, arcing southwest across central NJ where convection has recently intensified, possibly due to coastal boundary interactions. Surface temperatures are seasonally warm ahead of this activity, even near the coast where readings remain in the 80s. Modest buoyancy extends across the Delmarva into southern New England and this will contribute to new updrafts forming along the leading outflow as the aforementioned complex advances east this evening. Locally damaging winds are the primary risk along with marginally severe hail. ..Darrow.. 06/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM... LAT...LON 39767524 41067523 41397419 40087418 39767524 Read more

WW 0414 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 414 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE LVS TO 15 SW LAA TO 20 SSE TOR. ..THORNTON..06/14/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...LBF...CYS...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 414 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-017-061-063-075-095-099-115-121-125-150040- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA CHEYENNE KIOWA KIT CARSON LOGAN PHILLIPS PROWERS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-071-181-199-150040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE GREELEY SHERMAN WALLACE NEC005-007-029-033-049-057-069-101-105-123-135-157-150040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 414 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE NM OK TX WY 142010Z - 150300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 414 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 210 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Western Kansas Western and Southwest Nebraska Northeast New Mexico The Far Western Oklahoma Panhandle The Northwest Texas Panhandle Far Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop and pose a threat for large hail around 1-2 inches in diameter this afternoon. With time, thunderstorms should consolidate into a bowing cluster moving east-northeastward, with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds around 60-80 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles southwest of Clayton NM to 40 miles north of Sidney NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 413... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 22035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0416 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0416 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 416 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 142330Z - 150700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 416 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 630 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Central Kansas Central Nebraska * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 630 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Several clusters and linear bands of storms will move east into the Watch area this evening. As the storms encounter increasing moisture with eastward extent into western Kansas, further upscale growth into a larger squall line is forecast this evening. Severe gusts (60-80 mph) will be the primary hazard with the stronger storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles north of Broken Bow NE to 20 miles east of Liberal KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 413...WW 414...WW 415... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Smith Read more

WW 0413 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 413 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S CMH TO 30 NE EKN. ..SPC..06/14/24 ATTN...WFO...RLX...PBZ...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 413 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC009-045-073-105-115-127-129-141-163-167-142340- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATHENS FAIRFIELD HOCKING MEIGS MORGAN PERRY PICKAWAY ROSS VINTON WASHINGTON WVC001-017-033-049-073-085-091-093-095-105-107-142340- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR DODDRIDGE HARRISON MARION PLEASANTS RITCHIE TAYLOR TUCKER TYLER WIRT WOOD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0413 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 413 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S CMH TO 30 NE EKN. ..SPC..06/14/24 ATTN...WFO...RLX...PBZ...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 413 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC009-045-073-105-115-127-129-141-163-167-142340- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATHENS FAIRFIELD HOCKING MEIGS MORGAN PERRY PICKAWAY ROSS VINTON WASHINGTON WVC001-017-033-049-073-085-091-093-095-105-107-142340- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR DODDRIDGE HARRISON MARION PLEASANTS RITCHIE TAYLOR TUCKER TYLER WIRT WOOD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 413 SEVERE TSTM OH PA WV 141825Z - 150100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 413 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 225 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Ohio Southwest Pennsylvania Northern West Virginia * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 225 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to strengthen this afternoon as they spread east-southeastward. The strongest thunderstorms may be capable of producing large hail around 1-1.5 inches in diameter, along with severe/damaging winds of 55-70 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles northwest of Athens OH to 25 miles east northeast of Morgantown WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0415 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 415 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PHL TO 10 N EWR. ..SPC..06/14/24 ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 415 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NJC003-005-007-013-015-017-023-025-029-035-039-142340- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN ESSEX GLOUCESTER HUDSON MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH OCEAN SOMERSET UNION NYC087-142340- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ROCKLAND THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0415 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 415 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PHL TO 10 N EWR. ..SPC..06/14/24 ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 415 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NJC003-005-007-013-015-017-023-025-029-035-039-142340- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN ESSEX GLOUCESTER HUDSON MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH OCEAN SOMERSET UNION NYC087-142340- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ROCKLAND THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 415 SEVERE TSTM NJ NY PA 142055Z - 150100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 415 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of New Jersey Southern New York Far Eastern Pennsylvania * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 455 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Loosely organized thunderstorm clusters should continue to pose a threat for mainly damaging winds around 50-70 mph as they spread eastward over the next few hours. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west northwest of Trenton NJ to 45 miles northeast of Trenton NJ. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 413...WW 414... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Gleason Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jun 14 22:00:11 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A broad trough over the western CONUS is expected to dominate the forecast for the period, with a strong mid-level jet across the northwest CONUS for the early part of the period. This strong jet will likely promote dry and breezy conditions on Days 3 and 4 (Sunday and Monday) across portions of the southwest CONUS. When combined with drying fuels in the region, 70% Critical probabilities have been maintained across portions of Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico. Additionally, a secondary mid-level jet is expected to translate eastward near the California coast on Day 4, which may promote dry, breezy conditions with receptive fuels in the California Central Valley. By Day 5 (Tuesday), the stronger mid-level flow translates to the northeast, and the surface flow in the region lessens accordingly. Some fire risk may occur across portions of the southern Rockies through the end of the period, though confidence in specific locations is not high enough to introduce any areas at the moment. ..Supinie.. 06/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A broad trough over the western CONUS is expected to dominate the forecast for the period, with a strong mid-level jet across the northwest CONUS for the early part of the period. This strong jet will likely promote dry and breezy conditions on Days 3 and 4 (Sunday and Monday) across portions of the southwest CONUS. When combined with drying fuels in the region, 70% Critical probabilities have been maintained across portions of Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico. Additionally, a secondary mid-level jet is expected to translate eastward near the California coast on Day 4, which may promote dry, breezy conditions with receptive fuels in the California Central Valley. By Day 5 (Tuesday), the stronger mid-level flow translates to the northeast, and the surface flow in the region lessens accordingly. Some fire risk may occur across portions of the southern Rockies through the end of the period, though confidence in specific locations is not high enough to introduce any areas at the moment. ..Supinie.. 06/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A broad trough over the western CONUS is expected to dominate the forecast for the period, with a strong mid-level jet across the northwest CONUS for the early part of the period. This strong jet will likely promote dry and breezy conditions on Days 3 and 4 (Sunday and Monday) across portions of the southwest CONUS. When combined with drying fuels in the region, 70% Critical probabilities have been maintained across portions of Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico. Additionally, a secondary mid-level jet is expected to translate eastward near the California coast on Day 4, which may promote dry, breezy conditions with receptive fuels in the California Central Valley. By Day 5 (Tuesday), the stronger mid-level flow translates to the northeast, and the surface flow in the region lessens accordingly. Some fire risk may occur across portions of the southern Rockies through the end of the period, though confidence in specific locations is not high enough to introduce any areas at the moment. ..Supinie.. 06/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A broad trough over the western CONUS is expected to dominate the forecast for the period, with a strong mid-level jet across the northwest CONUS for the early part of the period. This strong jet will likely promote dry and breezy conditions on Days 3 and 4 (Sunday and Monday) across portions of the southwest CONUS. When combined with drying fuels in the region, 70% Critical probabilities have been maintained across portions of Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico. Additionally, a secondary mid-level jet is expected to translate eastward near the California coast on Day 4, which may promote dry, breezy conditions with receptive fuels in the California Central Valley. By Day 5 (Tuesday), the stronger mid-level flow translates to the northeast, and the surface flow in the region lessens accordingly. Some fire risk may occur across portions of the southern Rockies through the end of the period, though confidence in specific locations is not high enough to introduce any areas at the moment. ..Supinie.. 06/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A broad trough over the western CONUS is expected to dominate the forecast for the period, with a strong mid-level jet across the northwest CONUS for the early part of the period. This strong jet will likely promote dry and breezy conditions on Days 3 and 4 (Sunday and Monday) across portions of the southwest CONUS. When combined with drying fuels in the region, 70% Critical probabilities have been maintained across portions of Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico. Additionally, a secondary mid-level jet is expected to translate eastward near the California coast on Day 4, which may promote dry, breezy conditions with receptive fuels in the California Central Valley. By Day 5 (Tuesday), the stronger mid-level flow translates to the northeast, and the surface flow in the region lessens accordingly. Some fire risk may occur across portions of the southern Rockies through the end of the period, though confidence in specific locations is not high enough to introduce any areas at the moment. ..Supinie.. 06/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A broad trough over the western CONUS is expected to dominate the forecast for the period, with a strong mid-level jet across the northwest CONUS for the early part of the period. This strong jet will likely promote dry and breezy conditions on Days 3 and 4 (Sunday and Monday) across portions of the southwest CONUS. When combined with drying fuels in the region, 70% Critical probabilities have been maintained across portions of Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico. Additionally, a secondary mid-level jet is expected to translate eastward near the California coast on Day 4, which may promote dry, breezy conditions with receptive fuels in the California Central Valley. By Day 5 (Tuesday), the stronger mid-level flow translates to the northeast, and the surface flow in the region lessens accordingly. Some fire risk may occur across portions of the southern Rockies through the end of the period, though confidence in specific locations is not high enough to introduce any areas at the moment. ..Supinie.. 06/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more