Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD TOWARD UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong and a few severe storms are expected Sunday evening and overnight from parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, with hail the primary risk. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will develop further over much of the western CONUS on Sunday, as a leading and potent shortwave trough skirts northern MT and ND with the parent low moving into MB. Moderate southwest winds aloft will remain over much of the northern Plains and upper MS valley during the day, with rising heights over the Great Lakes as the eastern ridge builds. Meanwhile, heights will generally lower over much of the West with an upper low over northern ID. At the surface, a front will move into the upper MS Valley as the primary surface low moves northward across MB. This front will become nearly stationary from WI into NE late in the day and overnight, while a large surface ridge remains over the Southeast. Southwest winds will aid moisture advection from the OH and mid MS Valley northward into MN, WI, and the upper Great Lakes toward the vicinity of the stationary front. Early warm advection and lift with the low-level jet will aid morning rain and storms from WI into MI, with generally weak lift for much of the day points west. ...Central high Plains toward the upper Great Lakes... Storms are likely from parts of WI into MI early on Sunday as 60 kt westerly 850 mb winds aid theta-e advection, resulting in substantial elevated instability along with lift. Some of this activity could contain hail as it moves quickly east during the day. To the west, lift will be weak for much of the day as the lead trough and low lift well north of the area. By evening and into the overnight, conditions appear favorable for scattered storms along and north of the surface front extending roughly from eastern WY into Upper MI. Here, 40 kt midlevel winds parallel to the front, along with elevated CAPE over 2000 J/kg will likely support areas of hail through the night. ..Jewell.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will remain in place across the western US on Saturday with a belt of enhanced west to southwesterly flow moving across the Cascades into the Northern Rockies. This will bring potential for breezy/dry downslope flow to overspread dry fuels in the lee of the Cascades across western Washington/northern Oregon within the Columbia Basin. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Locally Critical fire weather concerns will be possible, though Critical winds appear too localized to include any areas at this time. Ahead of the western US trough, a surface trough across southern Nevada into western Arizona will bring breezy/dry conditions across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah and northwestern Arizona, where relative humidity reductions into the teens to single digit will overlap sustained southwesterly flow around 10-15 mph. This warrants inclusion of an Elevated delineation as fuels are critically dry across this region. ..Thornton.. 06/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will remain in place across the western US on Saturday with a belt of enhanced west to southwesterly flow moving across the Cascades into the Northern Rockies. This will bring potential for breezy/dry downslope flow to overspread dry fuels in the lee of the Cascades across western Washington/northern Oregon within the Columbia Basin. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Locally Critical fire weather concerns will be possible, though Critical winds appear too localized to include any areas at this time. Ahead of the western US trough, a surface trough across southern Nevada into western Arizona will bring breezy/dry conditions across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah and northwestern Arizona, where relative humidity reductions into the teens to single digit will overlap sustained southwesterly flow around 10-15 mph. This warrants inclusion of an Elevated delineation as fuels are critically dry across this region. ..Thornton.. 06/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will remain in place across the western US on Saturday with a belt of enhanced west to southwesterly flow moving across the Cascades into the Northern Rockies. This will bring potential for breezy/dry downslope flow to overspread dry fuels in the lee of the Cascades across western Washington/northern Oregon within the Columbia Basin. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Locally Critical fire weather concerns will be possible, though Critical winds appear too localized to include any areas at this time. Ahead of the western US trough, a surface trough across southern Nevada into western Arizona will bring breezy/dry conditions across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah and northwestern Arizona, where relative humidity reductions into the teens to single digit will overlap sustained southwesterly flow around 10-15 mph. This warrants inclusion of an Elevated delineation as fuels are critically dry across this region. ..Thornton.. 06/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will remain in place across the western US on Saturday with a belt of enhanced west to southwesterly flow moving across the Cascades into the Northern Rockies. This will bring potential for breezy/dry downslope flow to overspread dry fuels in the lee of the Cascades across western Washington/northern Oregon within the Columbia Basin. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Locally Critical fire weather concerns will be possible, though Critical winds appear too localized to include any areas at this time. Ahead of the western US trough, a surface trough across southern Nevada into western Arizona will bring breezy/dry conditions across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah and northwestern Arizona, where relative humidity reductions into the teens to single digit will overlap sustained southwesterly flow around 10-15 mph. This warrants inclusion of an Elevated delineation as fuels are critically dry across this region. ..Thornton.. 06/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1257 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 412... FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL MO
Mesoscale Discussion 1257 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Areas affected...portions of western/central MO Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 412... Valid 140544Z - 140715Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 412 continues. SUMMARY...Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms may produce gusts of 45-60 mph and hail 0.75-1 inch diameter the next couple of hours. A new watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms over central MO will continue to gradually develop south. Vertical shear remains rather weak with southward extent. Modest instability and steep midlevel lapse rates, in conjunction with a weak cold pool, may support sporadic strong storms another 1-2 hours before weakening occurs. Another cluster of storms further north are occurring atop the cold pool from prior convection, but in a more favorably sheared environment. The storms will pose mainly a marginally severe hail risk for another 1-2 hours. Given the marginal/sporadic nature of the threat, a new severe thunderstorm watch is not expected. ..Leitman.. 06/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 39729381 39599332 38969261 38499213 38069200 37699209 37599242 37609308 37709361 37989399 38199412 39289459 39599459 39729439 39729381 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough and belt of south-southwesterly flow aloft will advance east-northeastward across the Southwest on Friday. A surface low south of south-central NM will promote modestly breezy westerly surface winds across southeastern AZ and southwestern NM. Given a deep/dry boundary layer across the area (single-digit RH), elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. The primary limiting factor for the addition of a Critical area continues to be marginal surface winds (15-20 mph). Across northern Arizona on the fringe of better moisture located across the Four Corners into western New Mexico, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along the Mogollon Rim. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will move into the base of a mid-level trough across the Northwest Friday afternoon. The associated downslope flow across the Cascades and Sierra will favor locally dry/breezy conditions across portions of northwestern NV and eastern WA/northeastern OR where fuels have dried sufficiently to support fire spread. As a result, elevated conditions are expected for both areas, with locally critical conditions possible in northwestern NV -- where 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected. ..Thornton.. 06/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough and belt of south-southwesterly flow aloft will advance east-northeastward across the Southwest on Friday. A surface low south of south-central NM will promote modestly breezy westerly surface winds across southeastern AZ and southwestern NM. Given a deep/dry boundary layer across the area (single-digit RH), elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. The primary limiting factor for the addition of a Critical area continues to be marginal surface winds (15-20 mph). Across northern Arizona on the fringe of better moisture located across the Four Corners into western New Mexico, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along the Mogollon Rim. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will move into the base of a mid-level trough across the Northwest Friday afternoon. The associated downslope flow across the Cascades and Sierra will favor locally dry/breezy conditions across portions of northwestern NV and eastern WA/northeastern OR where fuels have dried sufficiently to support fire spread. As a result, elevated conditions are expected for both areas, with locally critical conditions possible in northwestern NV -- where 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected. ..Thornton.. 06/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough and belt of south-southwesterly flow aloft will advance east-northeastward across the Southwest on Friday. A surface low south of south-central NM will promote modestly breezy westerly surface winds across southeastern AZ and southwestern NM. Given a deep/dry boundary layer across the area (single-digit RH), elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. The primary limiting factor for the addition of a Critical area continues to be marginal surface winds (15-20 mph). Across northern Arizona on the fringe of better moisture located across the Four Corners into western New Mexico, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along the Mogollon Rim. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will move into the base of a mid-level trough across the Northwest Friday afternoon. The associated downslope flow across the Cascades and Sierra will favor locally dry/breezy conditions across portions of northwestern NV and eastern WA/northeastern OR where fuels have dried sufficiently to support fire spread. As a result, elevated conditions are expected for both areas, with locally critical conditions possible in northwestern NV -- where 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected. ..Thornton.. 06/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough and belt of south-southwesterly flow aloft will advance east-northeastward across the Southwest on Friday. A surface low south of south-central NM will promote modestly breezy westerly surface winds across southeastern AZ and southwestern NM. Given a deep/dry boundary layer across the area (single-digit RH), elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. The primary limiting factor for the addition of a Critical area continues to be marginal surface winds (15-20 mph). Across northern Arizona on the fringe of better moisture located across the Four Corners into western New Mexico, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along the Mogollon Rim. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will move into the base of a mid-level trough across the Northwest Friday afternoon. The associated downslope flow across the Cascades and Sierra will favor locally dry/breezy conditions across portions of northwestern NV and eastern WA/northeastern OR where fuels have dried sufficiently to support fire spread. As a result, elevated conditions are expected for both areas, with locally critical conditions possible in northwestern NV -- where 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected. ..Thornton.. 06/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN KANSAS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO WESTERN IOWA...AND FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday from the Mid Missouri Valley into parts of Wisconsin, and from eastern Montana into parts of the western Dakotas. Wind and hail will be the primary concerns. ...Synopsis... A mean upper ridge will exist over the Southeast CONUS on Saturday, with a broad but strong upper trough from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies/Plains. Between these large-scale features, embedded disturbances associated with ongoing storms will affect parts of the Mid MS Valley during the day, moving toward the Upper Great Lakes by Sunday morning. At the surface, a cold front will push east across MT and WY and into the western Dakotas, providing a focus for afternoon/evening storms. South of this area, a warm front will lift across MO, IA, and eastern NE, with upper 60s F dewpoints likely along this boundary. The stronger instability in this region may favor large hail, areas of wind damage or a brief tornado. Isolated storms capable of locally gusts winds or marginal hail may extend as far south as western TX within the diurnal surface trough. ...Mid Missouri Valley northeastward into WI... Areas of thunderstorms appear probable early on Saturday from parts of SD into northern MO, in a zone of low-level warm advection and in association with the midlevel, convectively enhanced shortwave trough. The severe risk with this activity will be low, with perhaps small hail or gusty winds and likely weakening trend in this regime. This progressive wave will help push the warm front northward into IA through 00Z and into southern MN and western WI late. Just behind this wave, a plume of steep low-level lapse rates is forecast across KS, nosing into southeast NE and perhaps southwest IA by 00Z. The result may be a small-scale area of favorable instability and shear where the warmer air interacts with the warm front, and isolated supercells cannot be ruled out by late afternoon and into the evening from eastern NE into IA. Marginal, elevated hail may extend northeastward into MN/WI overnight with the aid of a 50 kt low-level jet. ...Northern High Plains... Strong height falls and a cold front will arrive into eastern MT during the late afternoon, supporting scattered storms. Lengthening hodographs along with the favorable large-scale lift should favor a zone of concentrated strong to severe storms by early evening from northeast MT into western ND. Cells capable of hail may occur initially, with increasing linear mode into bows with wind potential as the cold front surges late. ..Jewell.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN KANSAS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO WESTERN IOWA...AND FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday from the Mid Missouri Valley into parts of Wisconsin, and from eastern Montana into parts of the western Dakotas. Wind and hail will be the primary concerns. ...Synopsis... A mean upper ridge will exist over the Southeast CONUS on Saturday, with a broad but strong upper trough from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies/Plains. Between these large-scale features, embedded disturbances associated with ongoing storms will affect parts of the Mid MS Valley during the day, moving toward the Upper Great Lakes by Sunday morning. At the surface, a cold front will push east across MT and WY and into the western Dakotas, providing a focus for afternoon/evening storms. South of this area, a warm front will lift across MO, IA, and eastern NE, with upper 60s F dewpoints likely along this boundary. The stronger instability in this region may favor large hail, areas of wind damage or a brief tornado. Isolated storms capable of locally gusts winds or marginal hail may extend as far south as western TX within the diurnal surface trough. ...Mid Missouri Valley northeastward into WI... Areas of thunderstorms appear probable early on Saturday from parts of SD into northern MO, in a zone of low-level warm advection and in association with the midlevel, convectively enhanced shortwave trough. The severe risk with this activity will be low, with perhaps small hail or gusty winds and likely weakening trend in this regime. This progressive wave will help push the warm front northward into IA through 00Z and into southern MN and western WI late. Just behind this wave, a plume of steep low-level lapse rates is forecast across KS, nosing into southeast NE and perhaps southwest IA by 00Z. The result may be a small-scale area of favorable instability and shear where the warmer air interacts with the warm front, and isolated supercells cannot be ruled out by late afternoon and into the evening from eastern NE into IA. Marginal, elevated hail may extend northeastward into MN/WI overnight with the aid of a 50 kt low-level jet. ...Northern High Plains... Strong height falls and a cold front will arrive into eastern MT during the late afternoon, supporting scattered storms. Lengthening hodographs along with the favorable large-scale lift should favor a zone of concentrated strong to severe storms by early evening from northeast MT into western ND. Cells capable of hail may occur initially, with increasing linear mode into bows with wind potential as the cold front surges late. ..Jewell.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN KANSAS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO WESTERN IOWA...AND FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday from the Mid Missouri Valley into parts of Wisconsin, and from eastern Montana into parts of the western Dakotas. Wind and hail will be the primary concerns. ...Synopsis... A mean upper ridge will exist over the Southeast CONUS on Saturday, with a broad but strong upper trough from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies/Plains. Between these large-scale features, embedded disturbances associated with ongoing storms will affect parts of the Mid MS Valley during the day, moving toward the Upper Great Lakes by Sunday morning. At the surface, a cold front will push east across MT and WY and into the western Dakotas, providing a focus for afternoon/evening storms. South of this area, a warm front will lift across MO, IA, and eastern NE, with upper 60s F dewpoints likely along this boundary. The stronger instability in this region may favor large hail, areas of wind damage or a brief tornado. Isolated storms capable of locally gusts winds or marginal hail may extend as far south as western TX within the diurnal surface trough. ...Mid Missouri Valley northeastward into WI... Areas of thunderstorms appear probable early on Saturday from parts of SD into northern MO, in a zone of low-level warm advection and in association with the midlevel, convectively enhanced shortwave trough. The severe risk with this activity will be low, with perhaps small hail or gusty winds and likely weakening trend in this regime. This progressive wave will help push the warm front northward into IA through 00Z and into southern MN and western WI late. Just behind this wave, a plume of steep low-level lapse rates is forecast across KS, nosing into southeast NE and perhaps southwest IA by 00Z. The result may be a small-scale area of favorable instability and shear where the warmer air interacts with the warm front, and isolated supercells cannot be ruled out by late afternoon and into the evening from eastern NE into IA. Marginal, elevated hail may extend northeastward into MN/WI overnight with the aid of a 50 kt low-level jet. ...Northern High Plains... Strong height falls and a cold front will arrive into eastern MT during the late afternoon, supporting scattered storms. Lengthening hodographs along with the favorable large-scale lift should favor a zone of concentrated strong to severe storms by early evening from northeast MT into western ND. Cells capable of hail may occur initially, with increasing linear mode into bows with wind potential as the cold front surges late. ..Jewell.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN KANSAS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO WESTERN IOWA...AND FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday from the Mid Missouri Valley into parts of Wisconsin, and from eastern Montana into parts of the western Dakotas. Wind and hail will be the primary concerns. ...Synopsis... A mean upper ridge will exist over the Southeast CONUS on Saturday, with a broad but strong upper trough from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies/Plains. Between these large-scale features, embedded disturbances associated with ongoing storms will affect parts of the Mid MS Valley during the day, moving toward the Upper Great Lakes by Sunday morning. At the surface, a cold front will push east across MT and WY and into the western Dakotas, providing a focus for afternoon/evening storms. South of this area, a warm front will lift across MO, IA, and eastern NE, with upper 60s F dewpoints likely along this boundary. The stronger instability in this region may favor large hail, areas of wind damage or a brief tornado. Isolated storms capable of locally gusts winds or marginal hail may extend as far south as western TX within the diurnal surface trough. ...Mid Missouri Valley northeastward into WI... Areas of thunderstorms appear probable early on Saturday from parts of SD into northern MO, in a zone of low-level warm advection and in association with the midlevel, convectively enhanced shortwave trough. The severe risk with this activity will be low, with perhaps small hail or gusty winds and likely weakening trend in this regime. This progressive wave will help push the warm front northward into IA through 00Z and into southern MN and western WI late. Just behind this wave, a plume of steep low-level lapse rates is forecast across KS, nosing into southeast NE and perhaps southwest IA by 00Z. The result may be a small-scale area of favorable instability and shear where the warmer air interacts with the warm front, and isolated supercells cannot be ruled out by late afternoon and into the evening from eastern NE into IA. Marginal, elevated hail may extend northeastward into MN/WI overnight with the aid of a 50 kt low-level jet. ...Northern High Plains... Strong height falls and a cold front will arrive into eastern MT during the late afternoon, supporting scattered storms. Lengthening hodographs along with the favorable large-scale lift should favor a zone of concentrated strong to severe storms by early evening from northeast MT into western ND. Cells capable of hail may occur initially, with increasing linear mode into bows with wind potential as the cold front surges late. ..Jewell.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN CO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NE/KS...CENTRAL/EASTERN PA AND NORTHERN MD INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and wind gusts of 60-80 mph will be possible from mid afternoon through the evening along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong storms with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will be possible across the Northeast States during the afternoon to early evening. ...CO/KS/NE into the northern High Plains/northern Rockies... A mid/upper-level low over the Southwest is expected to eject northeastward as a shortwave trough later today, reaching the central/southern High Plains by late afternoon into the evening. In advance of this shortwave, an outflow-reinforced front may move slowly northward through the day. Low-level easterly flow will maintain a corridor of relatively rich low-level moisture along and north of the front, with strong heating/mixing expected south of the front, and also in closer proximity to the higher terrain. Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is expected by mid/late afternoon across parts of CO/NM, as the shortwave trough approaches the region. Moderate buoyancy and marginally favorable deep-layer shear will support a hail threat with initial discrete storm development, along with some potential for a brief tornado or two. A tendency toward more of a cluster mode is expected with time, as storm coverage increases. As this occurs, isolated to widely scattered gusts of 60-80 mph will be possible, especially in areas where stronger pre-storm heating/mixing occurs. A loosely organized MCS could eventually evolve near/north of the surface boundary, which would result in some severe-wind potential spreading eastward across a larger portion of the central Plains later tonight. Farther north, moderate diurnal destabilization will be possible near/east of a weak surface low across the northern High Plains, with modest instability extending westward across parts of the northern Rockies. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible by late afternoon into the evening, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support a few stronger storms capable of producing isolated hail and strong/severe gusts. ...PA/OH into the Mid Atlantic and New England... A mid/upper-level trough will move across the Mid Atlantic and New England later today into tonight. Weak to moderate buoyancy will develop along/ahead of a cold front, with scattered thunderstorm development expected from PA into New England, and more isolated development possible farther south into parts of the central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic. Moderate deep-layer shear will support some storm organization, and few stronger clusters and/or marginal supercells will be possible, with an attendant threat of locally damaging wind and hail. The Slight Risk has been expanded into parts of southern ME and also across a larger portion of PA, based on latest guidance regarding greater storm coverage within a somewhat favorable environment. Rather strong deep-layer shear will extend westward into parts of Ohio, but storm coverage remains more uncertain into that area. ..Dean/Thornton.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN CO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NE/KS...CENTRAL/EASTERN PA AND NORTHERN MD INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and wind gusts of 60-80 mph will be possible from mid afternoon through the evening along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong storms with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will be possible across the Northeast States during the afternoon to early evening. ...CO/KS/NE into the northern High Plains/northern Rockies... A mid/upper-level low over the Southwest is expected to eject northeastward as a shortwave trough later today, reaching the central/southern High Plains by late afternoon into the evening. In advance of this shortwave, an outflow-reinforced front may move slowly northward through the day. Low-level easterly flow will maintain a corridor of relatively rich low-level moisture along and north of the front, with strong heating/mixing expected south of the front, and also in closer proximity to the higher terrain. Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is expected by mid/late afternoon across parts of CO/NM, as the shortwave trough approaches the region. Moderate buoyancy and marginally favorable deep-layer shear will support a hail threat with initial discrete storm development, along with some potential for a brief tornado or two. A tendency toward more of a cluster mode is expected with time, as storm coverage increases. As this occurs, isolated to widely scattered gusts of 60-80 mph will be possible, especially in areas where stronger pre-storm heating/mixing occurs. A loosely organized MCS could eventually evolve near/north of the surface boundary, which would result in some severe-wind potential spreading eastward across a larger portion of the central Plains later tonight. Farther north, moderate diurnal destabilization will be possible near/east of a weak surface low across the northern High Plains, with modest instability extending westward across parts of the northern Rockies. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible by late afternoon into the evening, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support a few stronger storms capable of producing isolated hail and strong/severe gusts. ...PA/OH into the Mid Atlantic and New England... A mid/upper-level trough will move across the Mid Atlantic and New England later today into tonight. Weak to moderate buoyancy will develop along/ahead of a cold front, with scattered thunderstorm development expected from PA into New England, and more isolated development possible farther south into parts of the central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic. Moderate deep-layer shear will support some storm organization, and few stronger clusters and/or marginal supercells will be possible, with an attendant threat of locally damaging wind and hail. The Slight Risk has been expanded into parts of southern ME and also across a larger portion of PA, based on latest guidance regarding greater storm coverage within a somewhat favorable environment. Rather strong deep-layer shear will extend westward into parts of Ohio, but storm coverage remains more uncertain into that area. ..Dean/Thornton.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN CO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NE/KS...CENTRAL/EASTERN PA AND NORTHERN MD INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and wind gusts of 60-80 mph will be possible from mid afternoon through the evening along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong storms with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will be possible across the Northeast States during the afternoon to early evening. ...CO/KS/NE into the northern High Plains/northern Rockies... A mid/upper-level low over the Southwest is expected to eject northeastward as a shortwave trough later today, reaching the central/southern High Plains by late afternoon into the evening. In advance of this shortwave, an outflow-reinforced front may move slowly northward through the day. Low-level easterly flow will maintain a corridor of relatively rich low-level moisture along and north of the front, with strong heating/mixing expected south of the front, and also in closer proximity to the higher terrain. Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is expected by mid/late afternoon across parts of CO/NM, as the shortwave trough approaches the region. Moderate buoyancy and marginally favorable deep-layer shear will support a hail threat with initial discrete storm development, along with some potential for a brief tornado or two. A tendency toward more of a cluster mode is expected with time, as storm coverage increases. As this occurs, isolated to widely scattered gusts of 60-80 mph will be possible, especially in areas where stronger pre-storm heating/mixing occurs. A loosely organized MCS could eventually evolve near/north of the surface boundary, which would result in some severe-wind potential spreading eastward across a larger portion of the central Plains later tonight. Farther north, moderate diurnal destabilization will be possible near/east of a weak surface low across the northern High Plains, with modest instability extending westward across parts of the northern Rockies. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible by late afternoon into the evening, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support a few stronger storms capable of producing isolated hail and strong/severe gusts. ...PA/OH into the Mid Atlantic and New England... A mid/upper-level trough will move across the Mid Atlantic and New England later today into tonight. Weak to moderate buoyancy will develop along/ahead of a cold front, with scattered thunderstorm development expected from PA into New England, and more isolated development possible farther south into parts of the central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic. Moderate deep-layer shear will support some storm organization, and few stronger clusters and/or marginal supercells will be possible, with an attendant threat of locally damaging wind and hail. The Slight Risk has been expanded into parts of southern ME and also across a larger portion of PA, based on latest guidance regarding greater storm coverage within a somewhat favorable environment. Rather strong deep-layer shear will extend westward into parts of Ohio, but storm coverage remains more uncertain into that area. ..Dean/Thornton.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN CO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NE/KS...CENTRAL/EASTERN PA AND NORTHERN MD INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and wind gusts of 60-80 mph will be possible from mid afternoon through the evening along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong storms with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will be possible across the Northeast States during the afternoon to early evening. ...CO/KS/NE into the northern High Plains/northern Rockies... A mid/upper-level low over the Southwest is expected to eject northeastward as a shortwave trough later today, reaching the central/southern High Plains by late afternoon into the evening. In advance of this shortwave, an outflow-reinforced front may move slowly northward through the day. Low-level easterly flow will maintain a corridor of relatively rich low-level moisture along and north of the front, with strong heating/mixing expected south of the front, and also in closer proximity to the higher terrain. Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is expected by mid/late afternoon across parts of CO/NM, as the shortwave trough approaches the region. Moderate buoyancy and marginally favorable deep-layer shear will support a hail threat with initial discrete storm development, along with some potential for a brief tornado or two. A tendency toward more of a cluster mode is expected with time, as storm coverage increases. As this occurs, isolated to widely scattered gusts of 60-80 mph will be possible, especially in areas where stronger pre-storm heating/mixing occurs. A loosely organized MCS could eventually evolve near/north of the surface boundary, which would result in some severe-wind potential spreading eastward across a larger portion of the central Plains later tonight. Farther north, moderate diurnal destabilization will be possible near/east of a weak surface low across the northern High Plains, with modest instability extending westward across parts of the northern Rockies. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible by late afternoon into the evening, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support a few stronger storms capable of producing isolated hail and strong/severe gusts. ...PA/OH into the Mid Atlantic and New England... A mid/upper-level trough will move across the Mid Atlantic and New England later today into tonight. Weak to moderate buoyancy will develop along/ahead of a cold front, with scattered thunderstorm development expected from PA into New England, and more isolated development possible farther south into parts of the central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic. Moderate deep-layer shear will support some storm organization, and few stronger clusters and/or marginal supercells will be possible, with an attendant threat of locally damaging wind and hail. The Slight Risk has been expanded into parts of southern ME and also across a larger portion of PA, based on latest guidance regarding greater storm coverage within a somewhat favorable environment. Rather strong deep-layer shear will extend westward into parts of Ohio, but storm coverage remains more uncertain into that area. ..Dean/Thornton.. 06/14/2024 Read more

MD 1256 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 412... FOR MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1256 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Areas affected...Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 412... Valid 140312Z - 140445Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 412 continues. SUMMARY...Gusty winds and hail may accompany convection as it propagates south late this evening. DISCUSSION...Western flank of early-evening MCS lingers across western/central MO. Latest radar data continues to suggest hail near golf ball size, at times, in the strongest updrafts. Locally damaging winds and hail will continue to be observed with this convection as it propagates south over the next few hours. However, this activity is migrating through the primary instability axis and nocturnal cooling may lead to increasingly elevated updrafts. ..Darrow.. 06/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 39809445 38969119 37989122 38429324 39199498 39809445 Read more

WW 0412 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 412 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE CDJ TO 25 WSW STL. ..SPC..06/14/24 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 412 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC019-027-051-053-071-073-135-139-151-159-219-140440- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE CALLAWAY COLE COOPER FRANKLIN GASCONADE MONITEAU MONTGOMERY OSAGE PETTIS WARREN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more