Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail and wind gusts around 60-80 mph will be possible from mid-afternoon through this evening along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with occasional damaging winds and isolated hail will also be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon to early evening. ...Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Southwest will continue northeastward today towards the central Rockies/Plains. Post-frontal, low-level easterly upslope flow is ongoing across the central High Plains to the Front Range in eastern CO. A somewhat moist-level airmass is present across this area, and robust daytime heating is forecast with little cloud cover present on recent visible satellite imagery. Initially high-based thunderstorms should form over the central Rockies as forcing aloft overspreads this region. Modest, but sufficient, mid-level flow attendant to the shortwave trough and related deep-layer shear should support some updraft organization and a threat for severe hail with more discrete cells initially. A fairly quick evolution/upscale growth into a loosely organized cluster still appears likely as convection spreads east-northeastward into the central High Plains later this afternoon and early evening. An increasing threat for severe/damaging winds around 60-70 mph should materialize as this mode transition occurs. As low-level lapse rates become steepened with robust heating, and the boundary layer becomes very well mixed, some risk for isolated significant severe gusts (75-80 mph) may develop. This risk appears relatively greatest across parts of eastern CO into adjacent portions of western KS/NE. Late this evening, the cluster should eventually encounter a less unstable airmass with eastward extent across the central Plains, and subsequently weaken. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... Diurnal destabilization should occur today near/east of a weak surface low across the northern High Plains, with modest instability extending westward across parts of the northern Rockies. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should form by late afternoon into the evening, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support isolated stronger storms capable of producing occasional hail and strong-to-severe wind gusts. This threat should tend to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Recent visible satellite imagery shows cloud cover remains prevalent across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic ahead of a cold front. This should tend to delay/mute daytime heating to some extent, especially with northward extent into New England. Even so, filtered diurnal heating, and less cloud cover southward into the Mid-Atlantic, will support modest destabilization. Most guidance continues to suggest that MLCAPE will generally reach around 500-1000 J/kg by mid afternoon ahead of the front. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across these areas this afternoon as the front continues eastward in tandem with a mid/upper-level trough over eastern Canada. With around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear available to support updraft organization, occasional damaging winds should be the primary threat with any clusters or short line segments that can develop. Isolated hail may also occur with initially more discrete activity. This activity is forecast to spread eastward through the afternoon and early evening, before eventually weakening and/or reaching the coast. Additional convection may form this afternoon along the trailing portion of the cold front in western PA, northern WV, and southeast/central OH. An embedded, low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest may aid this development, along with modest low-level convergence along the front. Overall thunderstorm coverage is still somewhat uncertain with westward extent into the OH Valley. But, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, including a mix of a couple of supercells and small clusters with associated hail/wind threat, support a westward expansion of the Slight Risk to account for this potential. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail and wind gusts around 60-80 mph will be possible from mid-afternoon through this evening along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with occasional damaging winds and isolated hail will also be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon to early evening. ...Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Southwest will continue northeastward today towards the central Rockies/Plains. Post-frontal, low-level easterly upslope flow is ongoing across the central High Plains to the Front Range in eastern CO. A somewhat moist-level airmass is present across this area, and robust daytime heating is forecast with little cloud cover present on recent visible satellite imagery. Initially high-based thunderstorms should form over the central Rockies as forcing aloft overspreads this region. Modest, but sufficient, mid-level flow attendant to the shortwave trough and related deep-layer shear should support some updraft organization and a threat for severe hail with more discrete cells initially. A fairly quick evolution/upscale growth into a loosely organized cluster still appears likely as convection spreads east-northeastward into the central High Plains later this afternoon and early evening. An increasing threat for severe/damaging winds around 60-70 mph should materialize as this mode transition occurs. As low-level lapse rates become steepened with robust heating, and the boundary layer becomes very well mixed, some risk for isolated significant severe gusts (75-80 mph) may develop. This risk appears relatively greatest across parts of eastern CO into adjacent portions of western KS/NE. Late this evening, the cluster should eventually encounter a less unstable airmass with eastward extent across the central Plains, and subsequently weaken. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... Diurnal destabilization should occur today near/east of a weak surface low across the northern High Plains, with modest instability extending westward across parts of the northern Rockies. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should form by late afternoon into the evening, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support isolated stronger storms capable of producing occasional hail and strong-to-severe wind gusts. This threat should tend to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Recent visible satellite imagery shows cloud cover remains prevalent across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic ahead of a cold front. This should tend to delay/mute daytime heating to some extent, especially with northward extent into New England. Even so, filtered diurnal heating, and less cloud cover southward into the Mid-Atlantic, will support modest destabilization. Most guidance continues to suggest that MLCAPE will generally reach around 500-1000 J/kg by mid afternoon ahead of the front. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across these areas this afternoon as the front continues eastward in tandem with a mid/upper-level trough over eastern Canada. With around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear available to support updraft organization, occasional damaging winds should be the primary threat with any clusters or short line segments that can develop. Isolated hail may also occur with initially more discrete activity. This activity is forecast to spread eastward through the afternoon and early evening, before eventually weakening and/or reaching the coast. Additional convection may form this afternoon along the trailing portion of the cold front in western PA, northern WV, and southeast/central OH. An embedded, low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest may aid this development, along with modest low-level convergence along the front. Overall thunderstorm coverage is still somewhat uncertain with westward extent into the OH Valley. But, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, including a mix of a couple of supercells and small clusters with associated hail/wind threat, support a westward expansion of the Slight Risk to account for this potential. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail and wind gusts around 60-80 mph will be possible from mid-afternoon through this evening along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with occasional damaging winds and isolated hail will also be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon to early evening. ...Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Southwest will continue northeastward today towards the central Rockies/Plains. Post-frontal, low-level easterly upslope flow is ongoing across the central High Plains to the Front Range in eastern CO. A somewhat moist-level airmass is present across this area, and robust daytime heating is forecast with little cloud cover present on recent visible satellite imagery. Initially high-based thunderstorms should form over the central Rockies as forcing aloft overspreads this region. Modest, but sufficient, mid-level flow attendant to the shortwave trough and related deep-layer shear should support some updraft organization and a threat for severe hail with more discrete cells initially. A fairly quick evolution/upscale growth into a loosely organized cluster still appears likely as convection spreads east-northeastward into the central High Plains later this afternoon and early evening. An increasing threat for severe/damaging winds around 60-70 mph should materialize as this mode transition occurs. As low-level lapse rates become steepened with robust heating, and the boundary layer becomes very well mixed, some risk for isolated significant severe gusts (75-80 mph) may develop. This risk appears relatively greatest across parts of eastern CO into adjacent portions of western KS/NE. Late this evening, the cluster should eventually encounter a less unstable airmass with eastward extent across the central Plains, and subsequently weaken. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... Diurnal destabilization should occur today near/east of a weak surface low across the northern High Plains, with modest instability extending westward across parts of the northern Rockies. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should form by late afternoon into the evening, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support isolated stronger storms capable of producing occasional hail and strong-to-severe wind gusts. This threat should tend to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Recent visible satellite imagery shows cloud cover remains prevalent across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic ahead of a cold front. This should tend to delay/mute daytime heating to some extent, especially with northward extent into New England. Even so, filtered diurnal heating, and less cloud cover southward into the Mid-Atlantic, will support modest destabilization. Most guidance continues to suggest that MLCAPE will generally reach around 500-1000 J/kg by mid afternoon ahead of the front. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across these areas this afternoon as the front continues eastward in tandem with a mid/upper-level trough over eastern Canada. With around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear available to support updraft organization, occasional damaging winds should be the primary threat with any clusters or short line segments that can develop. Isolated hail may also occur with initially more discrete activity. This activity is forecast to spread eastward through the afternoon and early evening, before eventually weakening and/or reaching the coast. Additional convection may form this afternoon along the trailing portion of the cold front in western PA, northern WV, and southeast/central OH. An embedded, low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest may aid this development, along with modest low-level convergence along the front. Overall thunderstorm coverage is still somewhat uncertain with westward extent into the OH Valley. But, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, including a mix of a couple of supercells and small clusters with associated hail/wind threat, support a westward expansion of the Slight Risk to account for this potential. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail and wind gusts around 60-80 mph will be possible from mid-afternoon through this evening along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with occasional damaging winds and isolated hail will also be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon to early evening. ...Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Southwest will continue northeastward today towards the central Rockies/Plains. Post-frontal, low-level easterly upslope flow is ongoing across the central High Plains to the Front Range in eastern CO. A somewhat moist-level airmass is present across this area, and robust daytime heating is forecast with little cloud cover present on recent visible satellite imagery. Initially high-based thunderstorms should form over the central Rockies as forcing aloft overspreads this region. Modest, but sufficient, mid-level flow attendant to the shortwave trough and related deep-layer shear should support some updraft organization and a threat for severe hail with more discrete cells initially. A fairly quick evolution/upscale growth into a loosely organized cluster still appears likely as convection spreads east-northeastward into the central High Plains later this afternoon and early evening. An increasing threat for severe/damaging winds around 60-70 mph should materialize as this mode transition occurs. As low-level lapse rates become steepened with robust heating, and the boundary layer becomes very well mixed, some risk for isolated significant severe gusts (75-80 mph) may develop. This risk appears relatively greatest across parts of eastern CO into adjacent portions of western KS/NE. Late this evening, the cluster should eventually encounter a less unstable airmass with eastward extent across the central Plains, and subsequently weaken. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... Diurnal destabilization should occur today near/east of a weak surface low across the northern High Plains, with modest instability extending westward across parts of the northern Rockies. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should form by late afternoon into the evening, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support isolated stronger storms capable of producing occasional hail and strong-to-severe wind gusts. This threat should tend to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Recent visible satellite imagery shows cloud cover remains prevalent across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic ahead of a cold front. This should tend to delay/mute daytime heating to some extent, especially with northward extent into New England. Even so, filtered diurnal heating, and less cloud cover southward into the Mid-Atlantic, will support modest destabilization. Most guidance continues to suggest that MLCAPE will generally reach around 500-1000 J/kg by mid afternoon ahead of the front. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across these areas this afternoon as the front continues eastward in tandem with a mid/upper-level trough over eastern Canada. With around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear available to support updraft organization, occasional damaging winds should be the primary threat with any clusters or short line segments that can develop. Isolated hail may also occur with initially more discrete activity. This activity is forecast to spread eastward through the afternoon and early evening, before eventually weakening and/or reaching the coast. Additional convection may form this afternoon along the trailing portion of the cold front in western PA, northern WV, and southeast/central OH. An embedded, low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest may aid this development, along with modest low-level convergence along the front. Overall thunderstorm coverage is still somewhat uncertain with westward extent into the OH Valley. But, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, including a mix of a couple of supercells and small clusters with associated hail/wind threat, support a westward expansion of the Slight Risk to account for this potential. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail and wind gusts around 60-80 mph will be possible from mid-afternoon through this evening along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with occasional damaging winds and isolated hail will also be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon to early evening. ...Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Southwest will continue northeastward today towards the central Rockies/Plains. Post-frontal, low-level easterly upslope flow is ongoing across the central High Plains to the Front Range in eastern CO. A somewhat moist-level airmass is present across this area, and robust daytime heating is forecast with little cloud cover present on recent visible satellite imagery. Initially high-based thunderstorms should form over the central Rockies as forcing aloft overspreads this region. Modest, but sufficient, mid-level flow attendant to the shortwave trough and related deep-layer shear should support some updraft organization and a threat for severe hail with more discrete cells initially. A fairly quick evolution/upscale growth into a loosely organized cluster still appears likely as convection spreads east-northeastward into the central High Plains later this afternoon and early evening. An increasing threat for severe/damaging winds around 60-70 mph should materialize as this mode transition occurs. As low-level lapse rates become steepened with robust heating, and the boundary layer becomes very well mixed, some risk for isolated significant severe gusts (75-80 mph) may develop. This risk appears relatively greatest across parts of eastern CO into adjacent portions of western KS/NE. Late this evening, the cluster should eventually encounter a less unstable airmass with eastward extent across the central Plains, and subsequently weaken. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... Diurnal destabilization should occur today near/east of a weak surface low across the northern High Plains, with modest instability extending westward across parts of the northern Rockies. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should form by late afternoon into the evening, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support isolated stronger storms capable of producing occasional hail and strong-to-severe wind gusts. This threat should tend to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Recent visible satellite imagery shows cloud cover remains prevalent across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic ahead of a cold front. This should tend to delay/mute daytime heating to some extent, especially with northward extent into New England. Even so, filtered diurnal heating, and less cloud cover southward into the Mid-Atlantic, will support modest destabilization. Most guidance continues to suggest that MLCAPE will generally reach around 500-1000 J/kg by mid afternoon ahead of the front. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across these areas this afternoon as the front continues eastward in tandem with a mid/upper-level trough over eastern Canada. With around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear available to support updraft organization, occasional damaging winds should be the primary threat with any clusters or short line segments that can develop. Isolated hail may also occur with initially more discrete activity. This activity is forecast to spread eastward through the afternoon and early evening, before eventually weakening and/or reaching the coast. Additional convection may form this afternoon along the trailing portion of the cold front in western PA, northern WV, and southeast/central OH. An embedded, low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest may aid this development, along with modest low-level convergence along the front. Overall thunderstorm coverage is still somewhat uncertain with westward extent into the OH Valley. But, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, including a mix of a couple of supercells and small clusters with associated hail/wind threat, support a westward expansion of the Slight Risk to account for this potential. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail and wind gusts around 60-80 mph will be possible from mid-afternoon through this evening along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with occasional damaging winds and isolated hail will also be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon to early evening. ...Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Southwest will continue northeastward today towards the central Rockies/Plains. Post-frontal, low-level easterly upslope flow is ongoing across the central High Plains to the Front Range in eastern CO. A somewhat moist-level airmass is present across this area, and robust daytime heating is forecast with little cloud cover present on recent visible satellite imagery. Initially high-based thunderstorms should form over the central Rockies as forcing aloft overspreads this region. Modest, but sufficient, mid-level flow attendant to the shortwave trough and related deep-layer shear should support some updraft organization and a threat for severe hail with more discrete cells initially. A fairly quick evolution/upscale growth into a loosely organized cluster still appears likely as convection spreads east-northeastward into the central High Plains later this afternoon and early evening. An increasing threat for severe/damaging winds around 60-70 mph should materialize as this mode transition occurs. As low-level lapse rates become steepened with robust heating, and the boundary layer becomes very well mixed, some risk for isolated significant severe gusts (75-80 mph) may develop. This risk appears relatively greatest across parts of eastern CO into adjacent portions of western KS/NE. Late this evening, the cluster should eventually encounter a less unstable airmass with eastward extent across the central Plains, and subsequently weaken. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... Diurnal destabilization should occur today near/east of a weak surface low across the northern High Plains, with modest instability extending westward across parts of the northern Rockies. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should form by late afternoon into the evening, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support isolated stronger storms capable of producing occasional hail and strong-to-severe wind gusts. This threat should tend to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Recent visible satellite imagery shows cloud cover remains prevalent across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic ahead of a cold front. This should tend to delay/mute daytime heating to some extent, especially with northward extent into New England. Even so, filtered diurnal heating, and less cloud cover southward into the Mid-Atlantic, will support modest destabilization. Most guidance continues to suggest that MLCAPE will generally reach around 500-1000 J/kg by mid afternoon ahead of the front. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across these areas this afternoon as the front continues eastward in tandem with a mid/upper-level trough over eastern Canada. With around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear available to support updraft organization, occasional damaging winds should be the primary threat with any clusters or short line segments that can develop. Isolated hail may also occur with initially more discrete activity. This activity is forecast to spread eastward through the afternoon and early evening, before eventually weakening and/or reaching the coast. Additional convection may form this afternoon along the trailing portion of the cold front in western PA, northern WV, and southeast/central OH. An embedded, low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest may aid this development, along with modest low-level convergence along the front. Overall thunderstorm coverage is still somewhat uncertain with westward extent into the OH Valley. But, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, including a mix of a couple of supercells and small clusters with associated hail/wind threat, support a westward expansion of the Slight Risk to account for this potential. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail and wind gusts around 60-80 mph will be possible from mid-afternoon through this evening along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with occasional damaging winds and isolated hail will also be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon to early evening. ...Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Southwest will continue northeastward today towards the central Rockies/Plains. Post-frontal, low-level easterly upslope flow is ongoing across the central High Plains to the Front Range in eastern CO. A somewhat moist-level airmass is present across this area, and robust daytime heating is forecast with little cloud cover present on recent visible satellite imagery. Initially high-based thunderstorms should form over the central Rockies as forcing aloft overspreads this region. Modest, but sufficient, mid-level flow attendant to the shortwave trough and related deep-layer shear should support some updraft organization and a threat for severe hail with more discrete cells initially. A fairly quick evolution/upscale growth into a loosely organized cluster still appears likely as convection spreads east-northeastward into the central High Plains later this afternoon and early evening. An increasing threat for severe/damaging winds around 60-70 mph should materialize as this mode transition occurs. As low-level lapse rates become steepened with robust heating, and the boundary layer becomes very well mixed, some risk for isolated significant severe gusts (75-80 mph) may develop. This risk appears relatively greatest across parts of eastern CO into adjacent portions of western KS/NE. Late this evening, the cluster should eventually encounter a less unstable airmass with eastward extent across the central Plains, and subsequently weaken. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... Diurnal destabilization should occur today near/east of a weak surface low across the northern High Plains, with modest instability extending westward across parts of the northern Rockies. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should form by late afternoon into the evening, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support isolated stronger storms capable of producing occasional hail and strong-to-severe wind gusts. This threat should tend to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Recent visible satellite imagery shows cloud cover remains prevalent across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic ahead of a cold front. This should tend to delay/mute daytime heating to some extent, especially with northward extent into New England. Even so, filtered diurnal heating, and less cloud cover southward into the Mid-Atlantic, will support modest destabilization. Most guidance continues to suggest that MLCAPE will generally reach around 500-1000 J/kg by mid afternoon ahead of the front. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across these areas this afternoon as the front continues eastward in tandem with a mid/upper-level trough over eastern Canada. With around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear available to support updraft organization, occasional damaging winds should be the primary threat with any clusters or short line segments that can develop. Isolated hail may also occur with initially more discrete activity. This activity is forecast to spread eastward through the afternoon and early evening, before eventually weakening and/or reaching the coast. Additional convection may form this afternoon along the trailing portion of the cold front in western PA, northern WV, and southeast/central OH. An embedded, low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest may aid this development, along with modest low-level convergence along the front. Overall thunderstorm coverage is still somewhat uncertain with westward extent into the OH Valley. But, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, including a mix of a couple of supercells and small clusters with associated hail/wind threat, support a westward expansion of the Slight Risk to account for this potential. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail and wind gusts around 60-80 mph will be possible from mid-afternoon through this evening along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with occasional damaging winds and isolated hail will also be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon to early evening. ...Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Southwest will continue northeastward today towards the central Rockies/Plains. Post-frontal, low-level easterly upslope flow is ongoing across the central High Plains to the Front Range in eastern CO. A somewhat moist-level airmass is present across this area, and robust daytime heating is forecast with little cloud cover present on recent visible satellite imagery. Initially high-based thunderstorms should form over the central Rockies as forcing aloft overspreads this region. Modest, but sufficient, mid-level flow attendant to the shortwave trough and related deep-layer shear should support some updraft organization and a threat for severe hail with more discrete cells initially. A fairly quick evolution/upscale growth into a loosely organized cluster still appears likely as convection spreads east-northeastward into the central High Plains later this afternoon and early evening. An increasing threat for severe/damaging winds around 60-70 mph should materialize as this mode transition occurs. As low-level lapse rates become steepened with robust heating, and the boundary layer becomes very well mixed, some risk for isolated significant severe gusts (75-80 mph) may develop. This risk appears relatively greatest across parts of eastern CO into adjacent portions of western KS/NE. Late this evening, the cluster should eventually encounter a less unstable airmass with eastward extent across the central Plains, and subsequently weaken. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... Diurnal destabilization should occur today near/east of a weak surface low across the northern High Plains, with modest instability extending westward across parts of the northern Rockies. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should form by late afternoon into the evening, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support isolated stronger storms capable of producing occasional hail and strong-to-severe wind gusts. This threat should tend to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Recent visible satellite imagery shows cloud cover remains prevalent across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic ahead of a cold front. This should tend to delay/mute daytime heating to some extent, especially with northward extent into New England. Even so, filtered diurnal heating, and less cloud cover southward into the Mid-Atlantic, will support modest destabilization. Most guidance continues to suggest that MLCAPE will generally reach around 500-1000 J/kg by mid afternoon ahead of the front. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across these areas this afternoon as the front continues eastward in tandem with a mid/upper-level trough over eastern Canada. With around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear available to support updraft organization, occasional damaging winds should be the primary threat with any clusters or short line segments that can develop. Isolated hail may also occur with initially more discrete activity. This activity is forecast to spread eastward through the afternoon and early evening, before eventually weakening and/or reaching the coast. Additional convection may form this afternoon along the trailing portion of the cold front in western PA, northern WV, and southeast/central OH. An embedded, low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest may aid this development, along with modest low-level convergence along the front. Overall thunderstorm coverage is still somewhat uncertain with westward extent into the OH Valley. But, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, including a mix of a couple of supercells and small clusters with associated hail/wind threat, support a westward expansion of the Slight Risk to account for this potential. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and wind gusts of 60-80 mph will be possible from mid-afternoon through evening along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong storms with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will also be possible across the Northeast States during the afternoon to early evening. ...Central Plains including Colorado/Nebraska/Kansas... A mid/upper-level low over the Lower Colorado River Valley early this morning will continue northeastward, reaching the central/southern High Plains by evening. An outflow-reinforced front is expected to slowly shift north-northeastward across the central High Plains through the day, with low-level southeasterly flow maintaining a relatively moisture-rich airmass across the central High Plains toward the Front Range. Thinking continues to be that at least scattered thunderstorm development is expected by mid/late afternoon across parts of Colorado/New Mexico including the Front Range and Raton Mesa vicinity, influenced by differential heating and the approaching shortwave trough. Moderate buoyancy and marginally favorable deep-layer shear (30-40 kt) will support large hail potential with initial discrete storm development, along with some risk for a brief tornado or two. A tendency toward more of a clustered mode is expected with time, as storm coverage increases. As this occurs, isolated to widely scattered wind gusts of 60-80 mph will be possible, especially in areas where stronger pre-storm heating/mixing occurs. A loosely organized MCS could eventually evolve near/north of the surface boundary, which would result in some severe-wind potential spreading eastward across Nebraska and western/northern Kansas tonight. ...Northern High Plains/northern Rockies... Moderate diurnal destabilization will be possible near/east of a weak surface low across the northern High Plains, with modest instability extending westward across parts of the northern Rockies. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible by late afternoon into the evening, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support a few stronger storms capable of producing isolated hail and strong-to-severe wind gusts. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England... A mid/upper-level trough will move across the Mid-Atlantic and New England later today into tonight. Weak to moderate buoyancy will develop along/ahead of a cold front, with scattered thunderstorm development expected from Pennsylvania into New England, and more isolated development possible farther south into parts of the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. Moderate deep-layer shear will support some storm organization, and few stronger clusters and/or marginal supercells will be possible, with an attendant threat of locally damaging winds and hail. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and wind gusts of 60-80 mph will be possible from mid-afternoon through evening along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong storms with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will also be possible across the Northeast States during the afternoon to early evening. ...Central Plains including Colorado/Nebraska/Kansas... A mid/upper-level low over the Lower Colorado River Valley early this morning will continue northeastward, reaching the central/southern High Plains by evening. An outflow-reinforced front is expected to slowly shift north-northeastward across the central High Plains through the day, with low-level southeasterly flow maintaining a relatively moisture-rich airmass across the central High Plains toward the Front Range. Thinking continues to be that at least scattered thunderstorm development is expected by mid/late afternoon across parts of Colorado/New Mexico including the Front Range and Raton Mesa vicinity, influenced by differential heating and the approaching shortwave trough. Moderate buoyancy and marginally favorable deep-layer shear (30-40 kt) will support large hail potential with initial discrete storm development, along with some risk for a brief tornado or two. A tendency toward more of a clustered mode is expected with time, as storm coverage increases. As this occurs, isolated to widely scattered wind gusts of 60-80 mph will be possible, especially in areas where stronger pre-storm heating/mixing occurs. A loosely organized MCS could eventually evolve near/north of the surface boundary, which would result in some severe-wind potential spreading eastward across Nebraska and western/northern Kansas tonight. ...Northern High Plains/northern Rockies... Moderate diurnal destabilization will be possible near/east of a weak surface low across the northern High Plains, with modest instability extending westward across parts of the northern Rockies. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible by late afternoon into the evening, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support a few stronger storms capable of producing isolated hail and strong-to-severe wind gusts. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England... A mid/upper-level trough will move across the Mid-Atlantic and New England later today into tonight. Weak to moderate buoyancy will develop along/ahead of a cold front, with scattered thunderstorm development expected from Pennsylvania into New England, and more isolated development possible farther south into parts of the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. Moderate deep-layer shear will support some storm organization, and few stronger clusters and/or marginal supercells will be possible, with an attendant threat of locally damaging winds and hail. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and wind gusts of 60-80 mph will be possible from mid-afternoon through evening along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong storms with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will also be possible across the Northeast States during the afternoon to early evening. ...Central Plains including Colorado/Nebraska/Kansas... A mid/upper-level low over the Lower Colorado River Valley early this morning will continue northeastward, reaching the central/southern High Plains by evening. An outflow-reinforced front is expected to slowly shift north-northeastward across the central High Plains through the day, with low-level southeasterly flow maintaining a relatively moisture-rich airmass across the central High Plains toward the Front Range. Thinking continues to be that at least scattered thunderstorm development is expected by mid/late afternoon across parts of Colorado/New Mexico including the Front Range and Raton Mesa vicinity, influenced by differential heating and the approaching shortwave trough. Moderate buoyancy and marginally favorable deep-layer shear (30-40 kt) will support large hail potential with initial discrete storm development, along with some risk for a brief tornado or two. A tendency toward more of a clustered mode is expected with time, as storm coverage increases. As this occurs, isolated to widely scattered wind gusts of 60-80 mph will be possible, especially in areas where stronger pre-storm heating/mixing occurs. A loosely organized MCS could eventually evolve near/north of the surface boundary, which would result in some severe-wind potential spreading eastward across Nebraska and western/northern Kansas tonight. ...Northern High Plains/northern Rockies... Moderate diurnal destabilization will be possible near/east of a weak surface low across the northern High Plains, with modest instability extending westward across parts of the northern Rockies. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible by late afternoon into the evening, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support a few stronger storms capable of producing isolated hail and strong-to-severe wind gusts. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England... A mid/upper-level trough will move across the Mid-Atlantic and New England later today into tonight. Weak to moderate buoyancy will develop along/ahead of a cold front, with scattered thunderstorm development expected from Pennsylvania into New England, and more isolated development possible farther south into parts of the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. Moderate deep-layer shear will support some storm organization, and few stronger clusters and/or marginal supercells will be possible, with an attendant threat of locally damaging winds and hail. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and wind gusts of 60-80 mph will be possible from mid-afternoon through evening along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong storms with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will also be possible across the Northeast States during the afternoon to early evening. ...Central Plains including Colorado/Nebraska/Kansas... A mid/upper-level low over the Lower Colorado River Valley early this morning will continue northeastward, reaching the central/southern High Plains by evening. An outflow-reinforced front is expected to slowly shift north-northeastward across the central High Plains through the day, with low-level southeasterly flow maintaining a relatively moisture-rich airmass across the central High Plains toward the Front Range. Thinking continues to be that at least scattered thunderstorm development is expected by mid/late afternoon across parts of Colorado/New Mexico including the Front Range and Raton Mesa vicinity, influenced by differential heating and the approaching shortwave trough. Moderate buoyancy and marginally favorable deep-layer shear (30-40 kt) will support large hail potential with initial discrete storm development, along with some risk for a brief tornado or two. A tendency toward more of a clustered mode is expected with time, as storm coverage increases. As this occurs, isolated to widely scattered wind gusts of 60-80 mph will be possible, especially in areas where stronger pre-storm heating/mixing occurs. A loosely organized MCS could eventually evolve near/north of the surface boundary, which would result in some severe-wind potential spreading eastward across Nebraska and western/northern Kansas tonight. ...Northern High Plains/northern Rockies... Moderate diurnal destabilization will be possible near/east of a weak surface low across the northern High Plains, with modest instability extending westward across parts of the northern Rockies. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible by late afternoon into the evening, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support a few stronger storms capable of producing isolated hail and strong-to-severe wind gusts. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England... A mid/upper-level trough will move across the Mid-Atlantic and New England later today into tonight. Weak to moderate buoyancy will develop along/ahead of a cold front, with scattered thunderstorm development expected from Pennsylvania into New England, and more isolated development possible farther south into parts of the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. Moderate deep-layer shear will support some storm organization, and few stronger clusters and/or marginal supercells will be possible, with an attendant threat of locally damaging winds and hail. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and wind gusts of 60-80 mph will be possible from mid-afternoon through evening along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong storms with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will also be possible across the Northeast States during the afternoon to early evening. ...Central Plains including Colorado/Nebraska/Kansas... A mid/upper-level low over the Lower Colorado River Valley early this morning will continue northeastward, reaching the central/southern High Plains by evening. An outflow-reinforced front is expected to slowly shift north-northeastward across the central High Plains through the day, with low-level southeasterly flow maintaining a relatively moisture-rich airmass across the central High Plains toward the Front Range. Thinking continues to be that at least scattered thunderstorm development is expected by mid/late afternoon across parts of Colorado/New Mexico including the Front Range and Raton Mesa vicinity, influenced by differential heating and the approaching shortwave trough. Moderate buoyancy and marginally favorable deep-layer shear (30-40 kt) will support large hail potential with initial discrete storm development, along with some risk for a brief tornado or two. A tendency toward more of a clustered mode is expected with time, as storm coverage increases. As this occurs, isolated to widely scattered wind gusts of 60-80 mph will be possible, especially in areas where stronger pre-storm heating/mixing occurs. A loosely organized MCS could eventually evolve near/north of the surface boundary, which would result in some severe-wind potential spreading eastward across Nebraska and western/northern Kansas tonight. ...Northern High Plains/northern Rockies... Moderate diurnal destabilization will be possible near/east of a weak surface low across the northern High Plains, with modest instability extending westward across parts of the northern Rockies. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible by late afternoon into the evening, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support a few stronger storms capable of producing isolated hail and strong-to-severe wind gusts. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England... A mid/upper-level trough will move across the Mid-Atlantic and New England later today into tonight. Weak to moderate buoyancy will develop along/ahead of a cold front, with scattered thunderstorm development expected from Pennsylvania into New England, and more isolated development possible farther south into parts of the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. Moderate deep-layer shear will support some storm organization, and few stronger clusters and/or marginal supercells will be possible, with an attendant threat of locally damaging winds and hail. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and wind gusts of 60-80 mph will be possible from mid-afternoon through evening along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong storms with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will also be possible across the Northeast States during the afternoon to early evening. ...Central Plains including Colorado/Nebraska/Kansas... A mid/upper-level low over the Lower Colorado River Valley early this morning will continue northeastward, reaching the central/southern High Plains by evening. An outflow-reinforced front is expected to slowly shift north-northeastward across the central High Plains through the day, with low-level southeasterly flow maintaining a relatively moisture-rich airmass across the central High Plains toward the Front Range. Thinking continues to be that at least scattered thunderstorm development is expected by mid/late afternoon across parts of Colorado/New Mexico including the Front Range and Raton Mesa vicinity, influenced by differential heating and the approaching shortwave trough. Moderate buoyancy and marginally favorable deep-layer shear (30-40 kt) will support large hail potential with initial discrete storm development, along with some risk for a brief tornado or two. A tendency toward more of a clustered mode is expected with time, as storm coverage increases. As this occurs, isolated to widely scattered wind gusts of 60-80 mph will be possible, especially in areas where stronger pre-storm heating/mixing occurs. A loosely organized MCS could eventually evolve near/north of the surface boundary, which would result in some severe-wind potential spreading eastward across Nebraska and western/northern Kansas tonight. ...Northern High Plains/northern Rockies... Moderate diurnal destabilization will be possible near/east of a weak surface low across the northern High Plains, with modest instability extending westward across parts of the northern Rockies. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible by late afternoon into the evening, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support a few stronger storms capable of producing isolated hail and strong-to-severe wind gusts. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England... A mid/upper-level trough will move across the Mid-Atlantic and New England later today into tonight. Weak to moderate buoyancy will develop along/ahead of a cold front, with scattered thunderstorm development expected from Pennsylvania into New England, and more isolated development possible farther south into parts of the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. Moderate deep-layer shear will support some storm organization, and few stronger clusters and/or marginal supercells will be possible, with an attendant threat of locally damaging winds and hail. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/14/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models indicate a strong upper ridge over much of the East and mean troughing over the western states for much of the period. While moderate southwest flow aloft will persist over parts of the northern Rockies and Plains, timing of the emerging features is uncertain. At this time, it appears a shortwave trough may move into the northern Plains on Tue/D5 as opposed to Mon/D4. Further, significant areas of early day convection appear possible on Mon/D4 and Tue/D5, which reduces predictability further. However, air mass recovery is likely over parts of the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley on Mon/D4, with clusters of storms producing areas of damaging wind and locally severe hail. As such, will maintain the ongoing 15% area for Mon/D4. Additional areas of severe hail/wind will be possible on Tuesday/D5, but predictability is low given the tendency for the eastern ridge to hold. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models indicate a strong upper ridge over much of the East and mean troughing over the western states for much of the period. While moderate southwest flow aloft will persist over parts of the northern Rockies and Plains, timing of the emerging features is uncertain. At this time, it appears a shortwave trough may move into the northern Plains on Tue/D5 as opposed to Mon/D4. Further, significant areas of early day convection appear possible on Mon/D4 and Tue/D5, which reduces predictability further. However, air mass recovery is likely over parts of the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley on Mon/D4, with clusters of storms producing areas of damaging wind and locally severe hail. As such, will maintain the ongoing 15% area for Mon/D4. Additional areas of severe hail/wind will be possible on Tuesday/D5, but predictability is low given the tendency for the eastern ridge to hold. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models indicate a strong upper ridge over much of the East and mean troughing over the western states for much of the period. While moderate southwest flow aloft will persist over parts of the northern Rockies and Plains, timing of the emerging features is uncertain. At this time, it appears a shortwave trough may move into the northern Plains on Tue/D5 as opposed to Mon/D4. Further, significant areas of early day convection appear possible on Mon/D4 and Tue/D5, which reduces predictability further. However, air mass recovery is likely over parts of the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley on Mon/D4, with clusters of storms producing areas of damaging wind and locally severe hail. As such, will maintain the ongoing 15% area for Mon/D4. Additional areas of severe hail/wind will be possible on Tuesday/D5, but predictability is low given the tendency for the eastern ridge to hold. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models indicate a strong upper ridge over much of the East and mean troughing over the western states for much of the period. While moderate southwest flow aloft will persist over parts of the northern Rockies and Plains, timing of the emerging features is uncertain. At this time, it appears a shortwave trough may move into the northern Plains on Tue/D5 as opposed to Mon/D4. Further, significant areas of early day convection appear possible on Mon/D4 and Tue/D5, which reduces predictability further. However, air mass recovery is likely over parts of the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley on Mon/D4, with clusters of storms producing areas of damaging wind and locally severe hail. As such, will maintain the ongoing 15% area for Mon/D4. Additional areas of severe hail/wind will be possible on Tuesday/D5, but predictability is low given the tendency for the eastern ridge to hold. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD TOWARD UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong and a few severe storms are expected Sunday evening and overnight from parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, with hail the primary risk. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will develop further over much of the western CONUS on Sunday, as a leading and potent shortwave trough skirts northern MT and ND with the parent low moving into MB. Moderate southwest winds aloft will remain over much of the northern Plains and upper MS valley during the day, with rising heights over the Great Lakes as the eastern ridge builds. Meanwhile, heights will generally lower over much of the West with an upper low over northern ID. At the surface, a front will move into the upper MS Valley as the primary surface low moves northward across MB. This front will become nearly stationary from WI into NE late in the day and overnight, while a large surface ridge remains over the Southeast. Southwest winds will aid moisture advection from the OH and mid MS Valley northward into MN, WI, and the upper Great Lakes toward the vicinity of the stationary front. Early warm advection and lift with the low-level jet will aid morning rain and storms from WI into MI, with generally weak lift for much of the day points west. ...Central high Plains toward the upper Great Lakes... Storms are likely from parts of WI into MI early on Sunday as 60 kt westerly 850 mb winds aid theta-e advection, resulting in substantial elevated instability along with lift. Some of this activity could contain hail as it moves quickly east during the day. To the west, lift will be weak for much of the day as the lead trough and low lift well north of the area. By evening and into the overnight, conditions appear favorable for scattered storms along and north of the surface front extending roughly from eastern WY into Upper MI. Here, 40 kt midlevel winds parallel to the front, along with elevated CAPE over 2000 J/kg will likely support areas of hail through the night. ..Jewell.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD TOWARD UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong and a few severe storms are expected Sunday evening and overnight from parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, with hail the primary risk. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will develop further over much of the western CONUS on Sunday, as a leading and potent shortwave trough skirts northern MT and ND with the parent low moving into MB. Moderate southwest winds aloft will remain over much of the northern Plains and upper MS valley during the day, with rising heights over the Great Lakes as the eastern ridge builds. Meanwhile, heights will generally lower over much of the West with an upper low over northern ID. At the surface, a front will move into the upper MS Valley as the primary surface low moves northward across MB. This front will become nearly stationary from WI into NE late in the day and overnight, while a large surface ridge remains over the Southeast. Southwest winds will aid moisture advection from the OH and mid MS Valley northward into MN, WI, and the upper Great Lakes toward the vicinity of the stationary front. Early warm advection and lift with the low-level jet will aid morning rain and storms from WI into MI, with generally weak lift for much of the day points west. ...Central high Plains toward the upper Great Lakes... Storms are likely from parts of WI into MI early on Sunday as 60 kt westerly 850 mb winds aid theta-e advection, resulting in substantial elevated instability along with lift. Some of this activity could contain hail as it moves quickly east during the day. To the west, lift will be weak for much of the day as the lead trough and low lift well north of the area. By evening and into the overnight, conditions appear favorable for scattered storms along and north of the surface front extending roughly from eastern WY into Upper MI. Here, 40 kt midlevel winds parallel to the front, along with elevated CAPE over 2000 J/kg will likely support areas of hail through the night. ..Jewell.. 06/14/2024 Read more