Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEVADA... ...Synopsis... A deepening western trough will bring an increase in southwesterly flow across much of the desert Southwest this afternoon. Fuels in this region have seen significant drying after several days of warm and dry conditions. Guidance indicates fuels in this region are critically dry, with recent ERCs data indicating 90th percentile for dryness across much of northern and central Arizona. This is further supported by active recent fire activity in this region. Relative humidity reductions to 5-10 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph across central/northern Arizona, southern Utah, and far southeastern Nevada where a Critical delineation was maintained with this outlook. Outside of this region, a more broad area of Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across much of central/southern Utah into southern Arizona, where there is less confidence is sustained Critical wind speeds. Elevated conditions may also extend into portions of western Nevada in the lee of the Sierras. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher) amid modestly receptive fuels. ..Thornton.. 06/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEVADA... ...Synopsis... A deepening western trough will bring an increase in southwesterly flow across much of the desert Southwest this afternoon. Fuels in this region have seen significant drying after several days of warm and dry conditions. Guidance indicates fuels in this region are critically dry, with recent ERCs data indicating 90th percentile for dryness across much of northern and central Arizona. This is further supported by active recent fire activity in this region. Relative humidity reductions to 5-10 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph across central/northern Arizona, southern Utah, and far southeastern Nevada where a Critical delineation was maintained with this outlook. Outside of this region, a more broad area of Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across much of central/southern Utah into southern Arizona, where there is less confidence is sustained Critical wind speeds. Elevated conditions may also extend into portions of western Nevada in the lee of the Sierras. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher) amid modestly receptive fuels. ..Thornton.. 06/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0423 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 423 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..06/16/24 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 423 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC005-019-027-063-067-069-071-079-095-099-103-160740- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENSON CAVALIER EDDY NELSON PEMBINA PIERCE RAMSEY ROLETTE TOWNER WALSH WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1286 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 422... FOR NORTHERN ND
Mesoscale Discussion 1286 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Areas affected...northern ND Concerning...Tornado Watch 422... Valid 160431Z - 160600Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 422 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for 60-80 mph wind gusts, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado will spread quickly eastward into the early overnight. Downstream watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...A fast-moving MCS with a history of producing significant severe gusts is moving across northwest ND late this evening. This MCS remains quite well-organized, with evidence of a strong rear-inflow jet, and 2-hour pressure rises of greater than 6 mb recently noted over northeast MT. Steep midlevel lapse rates, relatively rich low-level moisture, and favorable deep-layer shear will support maintenance of this MCS as it moves across northern ND into the early overnight hours. Wind gusts of 60-80 mph will continue to be the primary hazard, though favorable low-level shear/SRH (as noted on the KMIB VWP) could also support potential for a line-embedded tornado. With some severe-wind risk expected to spread east of WW 422, eventual downstream watch issuance into parts of north-central and northeast ND is likely. ..Dean/Smith.. 06/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 48950316 49030196 49090061 49119857 48469795 47379850 47220158 47250332 48240322 48950316 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday over much of the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... On Monday, strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the Great Basin into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, with an early lead wave over MN and the primary trough over the Pacific Northwest. Height rises will occur over much of the northern Plains during the day, before cooling aloft spreads east across the northern Rockies and High Plains late. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the East. At the surface, low pressure will form over WY and CO, with a warm front from NE into southern MN and northern WI by 00Z. South of this front, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will be common. Overnight, a cold front will push east across the Dakotas and toward central NE, as warming continues north across the upper MS Valley. The surface low will translate northeast from CO toward ND by 12Z Tue. ...Northern Plains and upper MS Valley... Early day storms and rain are expected from eastern SD across MN and into northern WI and upper MI, with a gradual decrease in coverage throughout the day. This activity will be well north of the warm front, and rain cooled air could reinforce the boundary for much of the day. By late afternoon, an unstable air mass along and south of this front may lead to renewed development, and a few storms could produce gusty winds or marginal hail. Additional storms are likely down the dryline into southwest NE into western KS where low-level lapse rates will be steep. Locally large hail or strong winds will be possible. During the evening and overnight, a greater threat of strong to severe storms may materialize as the warm front surges north along with southerly 850 mb winds increasing to 60 kt over a broad area. In addition the low-level moisture flux, the surging cold front will add lift, with the end result areas of storms capable of hail and locally damaging gusts. A greater severe risk than forecast for damaging winds may exist along the boundary, especially if it moves farther north than forecast with earlier air mass recovery. ..Jewell.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday over much of the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... On Monday, strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the Great Basin into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, with an early lead wave over MN and the primary trough over the Pacific Northwest. Height rises will occur over much of the northern Plains during the day, before cooling aloft spreads east across the northern Rockies and High Plains late. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the East. At the surface, low pressure will form over WY and CO, with a warm front from NE into southern MN and northern WI by 00Z. South of this front, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will be common. Overnight, a cold front will push east across the Dakotas and toward central NE, as warming continues north across the upper MS Valley. The surface low will translate northeast from CO toward ND by 12Z Tue. ...Northern Plains and upper MS Valley... Early day storms and rain are expected from eastern SD across MN and into northern WI and upper MI, with a gradual decrease in coverage throughout the day. This activity will be well north of the warm front, and rain cooled air could reinforce the boundary for much of the day. By late afternoon, an unstable air mass along and south of this front may lead to renewed development, and a few storms could produce gusty winds or marginal hail. Additional storms are likely down the dryline into southwest NE into western KS where low-level lapse rates will be steep. Locally large hail or strong winds will be possible. During the evening and overnight, a greater threat of strong to severe storms may materialize as the warm front surges north along with southerly 850 mb winds increasing to 60 kt over a broad area. In addition the low-level moisture flux, the surging cold front will add lift, with the end result areas of storms capable of hail and locally damaging gusts. A greater severe risk than forecast for damaging winds may exist along the boundary, especially if it moves farther north than forecast with earlier air mass recovery. ..Jewell.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday over much of the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... On Monday, strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the Great Basin into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, with an early lead wave over MN and the primary trough over the Pacific Northwest. Height rises will occur over much of the northern Plains during the day, before cooling aloft spreads east across the northern Rockies and High Plains late. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the East. At the surface, low pressure will form over WY and CO, with a warm front from NE into southern MN and northern WI by 00Z. South of this front, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will be common. Overnight, a cold front will push east across the Dakotas and toward central NE, as warming continues north across the upper MS Valley. The surface low will translate northeast from CO toward ND by 12Z Tue. ...Northern Plains and upper MS Valley... Early day storms and rain are expected from eastern SD across MN and into northern WI and upper MI, with a gradual decrease in coverage throughout the day. This activity will be well north of the warm front, and rain cooled air could reinforce the boundary for much of the day. By late afternoon, an unstable air mass along and south of this front may lead to renewed development, and a few storms could produce gusty winds or marginal hail. Additional storms are likely down the dryline into southwest NE into western KS where low-level lapse rates will be steep. Locally large hail or strong winds will be possible. During the evening and overnight, a greater threat of strong to severe storms may materialize as the warm front surges north along with southerly 850 mb winds increasing to 60 kt over a broad area. In addition the low-level moisture flux, the surging cold front will add lift, with the end result areas of storms capable of hail and locally damaging gusts. A greater severe risk than forecast for damaging winds may exist along the boundary, especially if it moves farther north than forecast with earlier air mass recovery. ..Jewell.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday over much of the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... On Monday, strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the Great Basin into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, with an early lead wave over MN and the primary trough over the Pacific Northwest. Height rises will occur over much of the northern Plains during the day, before cooling aloft spreads east across the northern Rockies and High Plains late. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the East. At the surface, low pressure will form over WY and CO, with a warm front from NE into southern MN and northern WI by 00Z. South of this front, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will be common. Overnight, a cold front will push east across the Dakotas and toward central NE, as warming continues north across the upper MS Valley. The surface low will translate northeast from CO toward ND by 12Z Tue. ...Northern Plains and upper MS Valley... Early day storms and rain are expected from eastern SD across MN and into northern WI and upper MI, with a gradual decrease in coverage throughout the day. This activity will be well north of the warm front, and rain cooled air could reinforce the boundary for much of the day. By late afternoon, an unstable air mass along and south of this front may lead to renewed development, and a few storms could produce gusty winds or marginal hail. Additional storms are likely down the dryline into southwest NE into western KS where low-level lapse rates will be steep. Locally large hail or strong winds will be possible. During the evening and overnight, a greater threat of strong to severe storms may materialize as the warm front surges north along with southerly 850 mb winds increasing to 60 kt over a broad area. In addition the low-level moisture flux, the surging cold front will add lift, with the end result areas of storms capable of hail and locally damaging gusts. A greater severe risk than forecast for damaging winds may exist along the boundary, especially if it moves farther north than forecast with earlier air mass recovery. ..Jewell.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday over much of the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... On Monday, strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the Great Basin into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, with an early lead wave over MN and the primary trough over the Pacific Northwest. Height rises will occur over much of the northern Plains during the day, before cooling aloft spreads east across the northern Rockies and High Plains late. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the East. At the surface, low pressure will form over WY and CO, with a warm front from NE into southern MN and northern WI by 00Z. South of this front, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will be common. Overnight, a cold front will push east across the Dakotas and toward central NE, as warming continues north across the upper MS Valley. The surface low will translate northeast from CO toward ND by 12Z Tue. ...Northern Plains and upper MS Valley... Early day storms and rain are expected from eastern SD across MN and into northern WI and upper MI, with a gradual decrease in coverage throughout the day. This activity will be well north of the warm front, and rain cooled air could reinforce the boundary for much of the day. By late afternoon, an unstable air mass along and south of this front may lead to renewed development, and a few storms could produce gusty winds or marginal hail. Additional storms are likely down the dryline into southwest NE into western KS where low-level lapse rates will be steep. Locally large hail or strong winds will be possible. During the evening and overnight, a greater threat of strong to severe storms may materialize as the warm front surges north along with southerly 850 mb winds increasing to 60 kt over a broad area. In addition the low-level moisture flux, the surging cold front will add lift, with the end result areas of storms capable of hail and locally damaging gusts. A greater severe risk than forecast for damaging winds may exist along the boundary, especially if it moves farther north than forecast with earlier air mass recovery. ..Jewell.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday over much of the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... On Monday, strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the Great Basin into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, with an early lead wave over MN and the primary trough over the Pacific Northwest. Height rises will occur over much of the northern Plains during the day, before cooling aloft spreads east across the northern Rockies and High Plains late. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the East. At the surface, low pressure will form over WY and CO, with a warm front from NE into southern MN and northern WI by 00Z. South of this front, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will be common. Overnight, a cold front will push east across the Dakotas and toward central NE, as warming continues north across the upper MS Valley. The surface low will translate northeast from CO toward ND by 12Z Tue. ...Northern Plains and upper MS Valley... Early day storms and rain are expected from eastern SD across MN and into northern WI and upper MI, with a gradual decrease in coverage throughout the day. This activity will be well north of the warm front, and rain cooled air could reinforce the boundary for much of the day. By late afternoon, an unstable air mass along and south of this front may lead to renewed development, and a few storms could produce gusty winds or marginal hail. Additional storms are likely down the dryline into southwest NE into western KS where low-level lapse rates will be steep. Locally large hail or strong winds will be possible. During the evening and overnight, a greater threat of strong to severe storms may materialize as the warm front surges north along with southerly 850 mb winds increasing to 60 kt over a broad area. In addition the low-level moisture flux, the surging cold front will add lift, with the end result areas of storms capable of hail and locally damaging gusts. A greater severe risk than forecast for damaging winds may exist along the boundary, especially if it moves farther north than forecast with earlier air mass recovery. ..Jewell.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday over much of the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... On Monday, strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the Great Basin into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, with an early lead wave over MN and the primary trough over the Pacific Northwest. Height rises will occur over much of the northern Plains during the day, before cooling aloft spreads east across the northern Rockies and High Plains late. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the East. At the surface, low pressure will form over WY and CO, with a warm front from NE into southern MN and northern WI by 00Z. South of this front, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will be common. Overnight, a cold front will push east across the Dakotas and toward central NE, as warming continues north across the upper MS Valley. The surface low will translate northeast from CO toward ND by 12Z Tue. ...Northern Plains and upper MS Valley... Early day storms and rain are expected from eastern SD across MN and into northern WI and upper MI, with a gradual decrease in coverage throughout the day. This activity will be well north of the warm front, and rain cooled air could reinforce the boundary for much of the day. By late afternoon, an unstable air mass along and south of this front may lead to renewed development, and a few storms could produce gusty winds or marginal hail. Additional storms are likely down the dryline into southwest NE into western KS where low-level lapse rates will be steep. Locally large hail or strong winds will be possible. During the evening and overnight, a greater threat of strong to severe storms may materialize as the warm front surges north along with southerly 850 mb winds increasing to 60 kt over a broad area. In addition the low-level moisture flux, the surging cold front will add lift, with the end result areas of storms capable of hail and locally damaging gusts. A greater severe risk than forecast for damaging winds may exist along the boundary, especially if it moves farther north than forecast with earlier air mass recovery. ..Jewell.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday over much of the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... On Monday, strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the Great Basin into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, with an early lead wave over MN and the primary trough over the Pacific Northwest. Height rises will occur over much of the northern Plains during the day, before cooling aloft spreads east across the northern Rockies and High Plains late. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the East. At the surface, low pressure will form over WY and CO, with a warm front from NE into southern MN and northern WI by 00Z. South of this front, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will be common. Overnight, a cold front will push east across the Dakotas and toward central NE, as warming continues north across the upper MS Valley. The surface low will translate northeast from CO toward ND by 12Z Tue. ...Northern Plains and upper MS Valley... Early day storms and rain are expected from eastern SD across MN and into northern WI and upper MI, with a gradual decrease in coverage throughout the day. This activity will be well north of the warm front, and rain cooled air could reinforce the boundary for much of the day. By late afternoon, an unstable air mass along and south of this front may lead to renewed development, and a few storms could produce gusty winds or marginal hail. Additional storms are likely down the dryline into southwest NE into western KS where low-level lapse rates will be steep. Locally large hail or strong winds will be possible. During the evening and overnight, a greater threat of strong to severe storms may materialize as the warm front surges north along with southerly 850 mb winds increasing to 60 kt over a broad area. In addition the low-level moisture flux, the surging cold front will add lift, with the end result areas of storms capable of hail and locally damaging gusts. A greater severe risk than forecast for damaging winds may exist along the boundary, especially if it moves farther north than forecast with earlier air mass recovery. ..Jewell.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday over much of the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... On Monday, strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the Great Basin into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, with an early lead wave over MN and the primary trough over the Pacific Northwest. Height rises will occur over much of the northern Plains during the day, before cooling aloft spreads east across the northern Rockies and High Plains late. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the East. At the surface, low pressure will form over WY and CO, with a warm front from NE into southern MN and northern WI by 00Z. South of this front, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will be common. Overnight, a cold front will push east across the Dakotas and toward central NE, as warming continues north across the upper MS Valley. The surface low will translate northeast from CO toward ND by 12Z Tue. ...Northern Plains and upper MS Valley... Early day storms and rain are expected from eastern SD across MN and into northern WI and upper MI, with a gradual decrease in coverage throughout the day. This activity will be well north of the warm front, and rain cooled air could reinforce the boundary for much of the day. By late afternoon, an unstable air mass along and south of this front may lead to renewed development, and a few storms could produce gusty winds or marginal hail. Additional storms are likely down the dryline into southwest NE into western KS where low-level lapse rates will be steep. Locally large hail or strong winds will be possible. During the evening and overnight, a greater threat of strong to severe storms may materialize as the warm front surges north along with southerly 850 mb winds increasing to 60 kt over a broad area. In addition the low-level moisture flux, the surging cold front will add lift, with the end result areas of storms capable of hail and locally damaging gusts. A greater severe risk than forecast for damaging winds may exist along the boundary, especially if it moves farther north than forecast with earlier air mass recovery. ..Jewell.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday over much of the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... On Monday, strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the Great Basin into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, with an early lead wave over MN and the primary trough over the Pacific Northwest. Height rises will occur over much of the northern Plains during the day, before cooling aloft spreads east across the northern Rockies and High Plains late. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the East. At the surface, low pressure will form over WY and CO, with a warm front from NE into southern MN and northern WI by 00Z. South of this front, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will be common. Overnight, a cold front will push east across the Dakotas and toward central NE, as warming continues north across the upper MS Valley. The surface low will translate northeast from CO toward ND by 12Z Tue. ...Northern Plains and upper MS Valley... Early day storms and rain are expected from eastern SD across MN and into northern WI and upper MI, with a gradual decrease in coverage throughout the day. This activity will be well north of the warm front, and rain cooled air could reinforce the boundary for much of the day. By late afternoon, an unstable air mass along and south of this front may lead to renewed development, and a few storms could produce gusty winds or marginal hail. Additional storms are likely down the dryline into southwest NE into western KS where low-level lapse rates will be steep. Locally large hail or strong winds will be possible. During the evening and overnight, a greater threat of strong to severe storms may materialize as the warm front surges north along with southerly 850 mb winds increasing to 60 kt over a broad area. In addition the low-level moisture flux, the surging cold front will add lift, with the end result areas of storms capable of hail and locally damaging gusts. A greater severe risk than forecast for damaging winds may exist along the boundary, especially if it moves farther north than forecast with earlier air mass recovery. ..Jewell.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday over much of the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... On Monday, strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the Great Basin into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, with an early lead wave over MN and the primary trough over the Pacific Northwest. Height rises will occur over much of the northern Plains during the day, before cooling aloft spreads east across the northern Rockies and High Plains late. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the East. At the surface, low pressure will form over WY and CO, with a warm front from NE into southern MN and northern WI by 00Z. South of this front, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will be common. Overnight, a cold front will push east across the Dakotas and toward central NE, as warming continues north across the upper MS Valley. The surface low will translate northeast from CO toward ND by 12Z Tue. ...Northern Plains and upper MS Valley... Early day storms and rain are expected from eastern SD across MN and into northern WI and upper MI, with a gradual decrease in coverage throughout the day. This activity will be well north of the warm front, and rain cooled air could reinforce the boundary for much of the day. By late afternoon, an unstable air mass along and south of this front may lead to renewed development, and a few storms could produce gusty winds or marginal hail. Additional storms are likely down the dryline into southwest NE into western KS where low-level lapse rates will be steep. Locally large hail or strong winds will be possible. During the evening and overnight, a greater threat of strong to severe storms may materialize as the warm front surges north along with southerly 850 mb winds increasing to 60 kt over a broad area. In addition the low-level moisture flux, the surging cold front will add lift, with the end result areas of storms capable of hail and locally damaging gusts. A greater severe risk than forecast for damaging winds may exist along the boundary, especially if it moves farther north than forecast with earlier air mass recovery. ..Jewell.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday over much of the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... On Monday, strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the Great Basin into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, with an early lead wave over MN and the primary trough over the Pacific Northwest. Height rises will occur over much of the northern Plains during the day, before cooling aloft spreads east across the northern Rockies and High Plains late. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the East. At the surface, low pressure will form over WY and CO, with a warm front from NE into southern MN and northern WI by 00Z. South of this front, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will be common. Overnight, a cold front will push east across the Dakotas and toward central NE, as warming continues north across the upper MS Valley. The surface low will translate northeast from CO toward ND by 12Z Tue. ...Northern Plains and upper MS Valley... Early day storms and rain are expected from eastern SD across MN and into northern WI and upper MI, with a gradual decrease in coverage throughout the day. This activity will be well north of the warm front, and rain cooled air could reinforce the boundary for much of the day. By late afternoon, an unstable air mass along and south of this front may lead to renewed development, and a few storms could produce gusty winds or marginal hail. Additional storms are likely down the dryline into southwest NE into western KS where low-level lapse rates will be steep. Locally large hail or strong winds will be possible. During the evening and overnight, a greater threat of strong to severe storms may materialize as the warm front surges north along with southerly 850 mb winds increasing to 60 kt over a broad area. In addition the low-level moisture flux, the surging cold front will add lift, with the end result areas of storms capable of hail and locally damaging gusts. A greater severe risk than forecast for damaging winds may exist along the boundary, especially if it moves farther north than forecast with earlier air mass recovery. ..Jewell.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday over much of the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... On Monday, strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the Great Basin into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, with an early lead wave over MN and the primary trough over the Pacific Northwest. Height rises will occur over much of the northern Plains during the day, before cooling aloft spreads east across the northern Rockies and High Plains late. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the East. At the surface, low pressure will form over WY and CO, with a warm front from NE into southern MN and northern WI by 00Z. South of this front, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will be common. Overnight, a cold front will push east across the Dakotas and toward central NE, as warming continues north across the upper MS Valley. The surface low will translate northeast from CO toward ND by 12Z Tue. ...Northern Plains and upper MS Valley... Early day storms and rain are expected from eastern SD across MN and into northern WI and upper MI, with a gradual decrease in coverage throughout the day. This activity will be well north of the warm front, and rain cooled air could reinforce the boundary for much of the day. By late afternoon, an unstable air mass along and south of this front may lead to renewed development, and a few storms could produce gusty winds or marginal hail. Additional storms are likely down the dryline into southwest NE into western KS where low-level lapse rates will be steep. Locally large hail or strong winds will be possible. During the evening and overnight, a greater threat of strong to severe storms may materialize as the warm front surges north along with southerly 850 mb winds increasing to 60 kt over a broad area. In addition the low-level moisture flux, the surging cold front will add lift, with the end result areas of storms capable of hail and locally damaging gusts. A greater severe risk than forecast for damaging winds may exist along the boundary, especially if it moves farther north than forecast with earlier air mass recovery. ..Jewell.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday over much of the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... On Monday, strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the Great Basin into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, with an early lead wave over MN and the primary trough over the Pacific Northwest. Height rises will occur over much of the northern Plains during the day, before cooling aloft spreads east across the northern Rockies and High Plains late. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the East. At the surface, low pressure will form over WY and CO, with a warm front from NE into southern MN and northern WI by 00Z. South of this front, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will be common. Overnight, a cold front will push east across the Dakotas and toward central NE, as warming continues north across the upper MS Valley. The surface low will translate northeast from CO toward ND by 12Z Tue. ...Northern Plains and upper MS Valley... Early day storms and rain are expected from eastern SD across MN and into northern WI and upper MI, with a gradual decrease in coverage throughout the day. This activity will be well north of the warm front, and rain cooled air could reinforce the boundary for much of the day. By late afternoon, an unstable air mass along and south of this front may lead to renewed development, and a few storms could produce gusty winds or marginal hail. Additional storms are likely down the dryline into southwest NE into western KS where low-level lapse rates will be steep. Locally large hail or strong winds will be possible. During the evening and overnight, a greater threat of strong to severe storms may materialize as the warm front surges north along with southerly 850 mb winds increasing to 60 kt over a broad area. In addition the low-level moisture flux, the surging cold front will add lift, with the end result areas of storms capable of hail and locally damaging gusts. A greater severe risk than forecast for damaging winds may exist along the boundary, especially if it moves farther north than forecast with earlier air mass recovery. ..Jewell.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday over much of the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... On Monday, strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the Great Basin into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, with an early lead wave over MN and the primary trough over the Pacific Northwest. Height rises will occur over much of the northern Plains during the day, before cooling aloft spreads east across the northern Rockies and High Plains late. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the East. At the surface, low pressure will form over WY and CO, with a warm front from NE into southern MN and northern WI by 00Z. South of this front, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will be common. Overnight, a cold front will push east across the Dakotas and toward central NE, as warming continues north across the upper MS Valley. The surface low will translate northeast from CO toward ND by 12Z Tue. ...Northern Plains and upper MS Valley... Early day storms and rain are expected from eastern SD across MN and into northern WI and upper MI, with a gradual decrease in coverage throughout the day. This activity will be well north of the warm front, and rain cooled air could reinforce the boundary for much of the day. By late afternoon, an unstable air mass along and south of this front may lead to renewed development, and a few storms could produce gusty winds or marginal hail. Additional storms are likely down the dryline into southwest NE into western KS where low-level lapse rates will be steep. Locally large hail or strong winds will be possible. During the evening and overnight, a greater threat of strong to severe storms may materialize as the warm front surges north along with southerly 850 mb winds increasing to 60 kt over a broad area. In addition the low-level moisture flux, the surging cold front will add lift, with the end result areas of storms capable of hail and locally damaging gusts. A greater severe risk than forecast for damaging winds may exist along the boundary, especially if it moves farther north than forecast with earlier air mass recovery. ..Jewell.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday over much of the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... On Monday, strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the Great Basin into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, with an early lead wave over MN and the primary trough over the Pacific Northwest. Height rises will occur over much of the northern Plains during the day, before cooling aloft spreads east across the northern Rockies and High Plains late. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the East. At the surface, low pressure will form over WY and CO, with a warm front from NE into southern MN and northern WI by 00Z. South of this front, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will be common. Overnight, a cold front will push east across the Dakotas and toward central NE, as warming continues north across the upper MS Valley. The surface low will translate northeast from CO toward ND by 12Z Tue. ...Northern Plains and upper MS Valley... Early day storms and rain are expected from eastern SD across MN and into northern WI and upper MI, with a gradual decrease in coverage throughout the day. This activity will be well north of the warm front, and rain cooled air could reinforce the boundary for much of the day. By late afternoon, an unstable air mass along and south of this front may lead to renewed development, and a few storms could produce gusty winds or marginal hail. Additional storms are likely down the dryline into southwest NE into western KS where low-level lapse rates will be steep. Locally large hail or strong winds will be possible. During the evening and overnight, a greater threat of strong to severe storms may materialize as the warm front surges north along with southerly 850 mb winds increasing to 60 kt over a broad area. In addition the low-level moisture flux, the surging cold front will add lift, with the end result areas of storms capable of hail and locally damaging gusts. A greater severe risk than forecast for damaging winds may exist along the boundary, especially if it moves farther north than forecast with earlier air mass recovery. ..Jewell.. 06/16/2024 Read more