Severe Storms

WW 0419 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 419 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW HUT TO 25 ESE EMP TO 20 SW FNB. ..DEAN..06/16/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 419 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC005-015-035-045-073-077-085-087-095-111-139-173-177-191- 160240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BUTLER COWLEY DOUGLAS GREENWOOD HARPER JACKSON JEFFERSON KINGMAN LYON OSAGE SEDGWICK SHAWNEE SUMNER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 419 SEVERE TSTM KS 152135Z - 160300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 419 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 435 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Kansas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 435 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon into the evening. The stronger thunderstorms will mainly be capable of severe gusts (60-80 mph). Isolated large hail may also accompany the more intense thunderstorm cores as this activity moves east into a more unstable airmass over eastern parts of Kansas towards the early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of Manhattan KS to 40 miles south of Wichita KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 417...WW 418... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 21030. ...Smith Read more

MD 1278 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHWEST MO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1278 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Areas affected...Northwest MO into western/central IA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 152358Z - 160130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A threat for damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado or two will spread eastward this evening. Watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...A storm cluster is gradually increasing in size across northeast KS into southeast NE, as the northern portion of a smaller cluster that developed earlier over central KS begins to merge with ongoing storms across southeast NE. Moderate downstream buoyancy and marginally sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support organized convection through the evening, and the ongoing storm cluster is expected to move into parts of northwest MO and southwest/central IA with time. With a linear mode already established, damaging winds may be the most likely hazard as storms progress east-northeastward this evening. However, rather strong low-level shear/SRH (as noted on regional VWPs) will also support potential for a tornado or two. Downstream watch issuance is likely between 7-8 PM CDT if trends continue to support a severe threat this evening into northwest MO and southwest/central IA. ..Dean/Smith.. 06/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX... LAT...LON 40059512 41299505 41989494 42189481 42199412 42099318 41239308 39819337 39519448 39559484 40059512 Read more

WW 0422 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0422 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0420 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 420 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 ENE BIL TO 35 S GGW TO 70 NNE GGW. ..THORNTON..06/16/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 420 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC017-019-021-025-033-055-079-083-085-087-091-103-109-160240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUSTER DANIELS DAWSON FALLON GARFIELD MCCONE PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROOSEVELT ROSEBUD SHERIDAN TREASURE WIBAUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0420 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 420 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 ENE BIL TO 35 S GGW TO 70 NNE GGW. ..THORNTON..06/16/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 420 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC017-019-021-025-033-055-079-083-085-087-091-103-109-160240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUSTER DANIELS DAWSON FALLON GARFIELD MCCONE PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROOSEVELT ROSEBUD SHERIDAN TREASURE WIBAUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0420 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 420 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 ENE BIL TO 35 S GGW TO 70 NNE GGW. ..THORNTON..06/16/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 420 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC017-019-021-025-033-055-079-083-085-087-091-103-109-160240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUSTER DANIELS DAWSON FALLON GARFIELD MCCONE PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROOSEVELT ROSEBUD SHERIDAN TREASURE WIBAUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0420 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 420 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 ENE BIL TO 35 S GGW TO 70 NNE GGW. ..THORNTON..06/16/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 420 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC017-019-021-025-033-055-079-083-085-087-091-103-109-160240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUSTER DANIELS DAWSON FALLON GARFIELD MCCONE PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROOSEVELT ROSEBUD SHERIDAN TREASURE WIBAUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0420 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 420 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 ENE BIL TO 35 S GGW TO 70 NNE GGW. ..THORNTON..06/16/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 420 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC017-019-021-025-033-055-079-083-085-087-091-103-109-160240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUSTER DANIELS DAWSON FALLON GARFIELD MCCONE PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROOSEVELT ROSEBUD SHERIDAN TREASURE WIBAUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 420 SEVERE TSTM MT 152155Z - 160300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 420 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Montana * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85 mph likely Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...An intensifying broken band of thunderstorms is forecast to grow upscale into a squall line this afternoon and into the evening across the Watch area. Severe gusts (60-85 mph) will be the primary hazard with the band of storms. Large hail may accompany any more discrete storm on the south flank of the evolving thunderstorm activity during the evening, as well as perhaps a brief risk for a tornado. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northeast of Glasgow MT to 35 miles south southwest of Miles City MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 417...WW 418...WW 419... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 26040. ...Smith Read more

WW 0418 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 418 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW MHK TO 25 WNW OLU TO 30 ENE BUB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1279 ..DEAN..06/16/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...EAX...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 418 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-071-085-093-119-129-133-141-143-149-155-167-193-160240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE FREMONT HARRISON IDA LYON MILLS MONONA O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH POTTAWATTAMIE SIOUX WOODBURY KSC013-117-131-160240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN MARSHALL NEMAHA MNC105-133-160240- MN Read more

WW 0421 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 421 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..06/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 421 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-009-015-021-025-027-029-039-047-049-053-073-077-079- 083-099-117-121-125-127-137-145-151-153-159-161-165-169-173-175- 181-185-187-160240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS AUDUBON BOONE BUENA VISTA CALHOUN CARROLL CASS CLARKE CRAWFORD DALLAS DECATUR GREENE GUTHRIE HAMILTON HARDIN JASPER LUCAS MADISON MARION MARSHALL MONTGOMERY PAGE POCAHONTAS POLK RINGGOLD SAC SHELBY STORY TAYLOR UNION WARREN WAYNE WEBSTER KSC043-160240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0421 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 421 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..06/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 421 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-009-015-021-025-027-029-039-047-049-053-073-077-079- 083-099-117-121-125-127-137-145-151-153-159-161-165-169-173-175- 181-185-187-160240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS AUDUBON BOONE BUENA VISTA CALHOUN CARROLL CASS CLARKE CRAWFORD DALLAS DECATUR GREENE GUTHRIE HAMILTON HARDIN JASPER LUCAS MADISON MARION MARSHALL MONTGOMERY PAGE POCAHONTAS POLK RINGGOLD SAC SHELBY STORY TAYLOR UNION WARREN WAYNE WEBSTER KSC043-160240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY REGION AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail remain possible this evening across the Mid-Missouri Valley, and also from eastern Montana to the western/central Dakotas. A few tornadoes could occur in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, with isolated significant severe hail and wind possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined mid-level vort over north-central KS lifting northeast toward the Mid-MO Valley. Two clusters of severe thunderstorms have evolved ahead of this feature: 1) northeast Nebraska, 2) southeast Nebraska into northeast Kansas. The northeast NE cluster is comprised of several supercells that have generated tornadoes at times. The southern-most complex has evolved into a linear MCS that is tracking toward northwest MO/southwest IA, and is producing severe wind gusts. Both of these clusters are supported by the aforementioned short wave which will encourage an increase in the LLJ across central IA into western WI later this evening. This should allow strong/severe thunderstorms to spread into the Mid/Upper MS Valley after sunset. Upstream across the northern High Plains, strongly diffluent high-level flow is noted across eastern MT into the western Dakotas ahead of a pronounced northern-Rockies short-wave trough. This short wave will shift into eastern MT later tonight as 500mb speed max rotates across northeast MT into southeast SK. Strong/severe thunderstorms will be noted ahead of the surging cold front which should advance across the western Dakotas by 06z. ..Darrow.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY REGION AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail remain possible this evening across the Mid-Missouri Valley, and also from eastern Montana to the western/central Dakotas. A few tornadoes could occur in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, with isolated significant severe hail and wind possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined mid-level vort over north-central KS lifting northeast toward the Mid-MO Valley. Two clusters of severe thunderstorms have evolved ahead of this feature: 1) northeast Nebraska, 2) southeast Nebraska into northeast Kansas. The northeast NE cluster is comprised of several supercells that have generated tornadoes at times. The southern-most complex has evolved into a linear MCS that is tracking toward northwest MO/southwest IA, and is producing severe wind gusts. Both of these clusters are supported by the aforementioned short wave which will encourage an increase in the LLJ across central IA into western WI later this evening. This should allow strong/severe thunderstorms to spread into the Mid/Upper MS Valley after sunset. Upstream across the northern High Plains, strongly diffluent high-level flow is noted across eastern MT into the western Dakotas ahead of a pronounced northern-Rockies short-wave trough. This short wave will shift into eastern MT later tonight as 500mb speed max rotates across northeast MT into southeast SK. Strong/severe thunderstorms will be noted ahead of the surging cold front which should advance across the western Dakotas by 06z. ..Darrow.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY REGION AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail remain possible this evening across the Mid-Missouri Valley, and also from eastern Montana to the western/central Dakotas. A few tornadoes could occur in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, with isolated significant severe hail and wind possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined mid-level vort over north-central KS lifting northeast toward the Mid-MO Valley. Two clusters of severe thunderstorms have evolved ahead of this feature: 1) northeast Nebraska, 2) southeast Nebraska into northeast Kansas. The northeast NE cluster is comprised of several supercells that have generated tornadoes at times. The southern-most complex has evolved into a linear MCS that is tracking toward northwest MO/southwest IA, and is producing severe wind gusts. Both of these clusters are supported by the aforementioned short wave which will encourage an increase in the LLJ across central IA into western WI later this evening. This should allow strong/severe thunderstorms to spread into the Mid/Upper MS Valley after sunset. Upstream across the northern High Plains, strongly diffluent high-level flow is noted across eastern MT into the western Dakotas ahead of a pronounced northern-Rockies short-wave trough. This short wave will shift into eastern MT later tonight as 500mb speed max rotates across northeast MT into southeast SK. Strong/severe thunderstorms will be noted ahead of the surging cold front which should advance across the western Dakotas by 06z. ..Darrow.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY REGION AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail remain possible this evening across the Mid-Missouri Valley, and also from eastern Montana to the western/central Dakotas. A few tornadoes could occur in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, with isolated significant severe hail and wind possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined mid-level vort over north-central KS lifting northeast toward the Mid-MO Valley. Two clusters of severe thunderstorms have evolved ahead of this feature: 1) northeast Nebraska, 2) southeast Nebraska into northeast Kansas. The northeast NE cluster is comprised of several supercells that have generated tornadoes at times. The southern-most complex has evolved into a linear MCS that is tracking toward northwest MO/southwest IA, and is producing severe wind gusts. Both of these clusters are supported by the aforementioned short wave which will encourage an increase in the LLJ across central IA into western WI later this evening. This should allow strong/severe thunderstorms to spread into the Mid/Upper MS Valley after sunset. Upstream across the northern High Plains, strongly diffluent high-level flow is noted across eastern MT into the western Dakotas ahead of a pronounced northern-Rockies short-wave trough. This short wave will shift into eastern MT later tonight as 500mb speed max rotates across northeast MT into southeast SK. Strong/severe thunderstorms will be noted ahead of the surging cold front which should advance across the western Dakotas by 06z. ..Darrow.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY REGION AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail remain possible this evening across the Mid-Missouri Valley, and also from eastern Montana to the western/central Dakotas. A few tornadoes could occur in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, with isolated significant severe hail and wind possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined mid-level vort over north-central KS lifting northeast toward the Mid-MO Valley. Two clusters of severe thunderstorms have evolved ahead of this feature: 1) northeast Nebraska, 2) southeast Nebraska into northeast Kansas. The northeast NE cluster is comprised of several supercells that have generated tornadoes at times. The southern-most complex has evolved into a linear MCS that is tracking toward northwest MO/southwest IA, and is producing severe wind gusts. Both of these clusters are supported by the aforementioned short wave which will encourage an increase in the LLJ across central IA into western WI later this evening. This should allow strong/severe thunderstorms to spread into the Mid/Upper MS Valley after sunset. Upstream across the northern High Plains, strongly diffluent high-level flow is noted across eastern MT into the western Dakotas ahead of a pronounced northern-Rockies short-wave trough. This short wave will shift into eastern MT later tonight as 500mb speed max rotates across northeast MT into southeast SK. Strong/severe thunderstorms will be noted ahead of the surging cold front which should advance across the western Dakotas by 06z. ..Darrow.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY REGION AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail remain possible this evening across the Mid-Missouri Valley, and also from eastern Montana to the western/central Dakotas. A few tornadoes could occur in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, with isolated significant severe hail and wind possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined mid-level vort over north-central KS lifting northeast toward the Mid-MO Valley. Two clusters of severe thunderstorms have evolved ahead of this feature: 1) northeast Nebraska, 2) southeast Nebraska into northeast Kansas. The northeast NE cluster is comprised of several supercells that have generated tornadoes at times. The southern-most complex has evolved into a linear MCS that is tracking toward northwest MO/southwest IA, and is producing severe wind gusts. Both of these clusters are supported by the aforementioned short wave which will encourage an increase in the LLJ across central IA into western WI later this evening. This should allow strong/severe thunderstorms to spread into the Mid/Upper MS Valley after sunset. Upstream across the northern High Plains, strongly diffluent high-level flow is noted across eastern MT into the western Dakotas ahead of a pronounced northern-Rockies short-wave trough. This short wave will shift into eastern MT later tonight as 500mb speed max rotates across northeast MT into southeast SK. Strong/severe thunderstorms will be noted ahead of the surging cold front which should advance across the western Dakotas by 06z. ..Darrow.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY REGION AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail remain possible this evening across the Mid-Missouri Valley, and also from eastern Montana to the western/central Dakotas. A few tornadoes could occur in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, with isolated significant severe hail and wind possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined mid-level vort over north-central KS lifting northeast toward the Mid-MO Valley. Two clusters of severe thunderstorms have evolved ahead of this feature: 1) northeast Nebraska, 2) southeast Nebraska into northeast Kansas. The northeast NE cluster is comprised of several supercells that have generated tornadoes at times. The southern-most complex has evolved into a linear MCS that is tracking toward northwest MO/southwest IA, and is producing severe wind gusts. Both of these clusters are supported by the aforementioned short wave which will encourage an increase in the LLJ across central IA into western WI later this evening. This should allow strong/severe thunderstorms to spread into the Mid/Upper MS Valley after sunset. Upstream across the northern High Plains, strongly diffluent high-level flow is noted across eastern MT into the western Dakotas ahead of a pronounced northern-Rockies short-wave trough. This short wave will shift into eastern MT later tonight as 500mb speed max rotates across northeast MT into southeast SK. Strong/severe thunderstorms will be noted ahead of the surging cold front which should advance across the western Dakotas by 06z. ..Darrow.. 06/16/2024 Read more