Severe Storms

WW 0418 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 418 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1276 ..DEAN..06/15/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...EAX...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 418 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-071-085-093-119-129-133-141-143-149-155-167-193-160040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE FREMONT HARRISON IDA LYON MILLS MONONA O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH POTTAWATTAMIE SIOUX WOODBURY KSC013-117-131-157-201-160040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN MARSHALL NEMAHA REPUBLIC WASHINGTON MNC105-133-160040- MN Read more

WW 418 TORNADO IA KS MN MO NE SD 152050Z - 160300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 418 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 350 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western Iowa Northeast Kansas Far Southwest Minnesota Extreme Northwest Missouri Eastern Nebraska Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop and pose a threat for a few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds this afternoon and evening as they spread east-northeastward. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles east northeast of Yankton SD to 45 miles south of Beatrice NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 417... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0417 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 417 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..06/15/24 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 417 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC019-031-033-041-055-063-075-081-093-103-105-117-137-152340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTTE CORSON CUSTER DEWEY HAAKON HARDING JONES LAWRENCE MEADE PENNINGTON PERKINS STANLEY ZIEBACH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1273 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1273 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Areas affected...parts of central into eastern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 152057Z - 152300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development possible through 5-7 PM CDT, with strong gusts approaching or perhaps briefly exceeding severe limits the primary potential hazard. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has recently increased and intensified along the leading edge of outflow associated with weakening initial convective development approaching the I-135/35 corridor of central Kansas. The boundary layer immediately ahead of this activity has become strongly heated and deeply mixed (with surface dew points falling into the lower 60s F as temperatures rose into the mid 90s F), but may still be characterized by weak to modest CAPE. Aided by forcing for ascent associated with weak mid-level troughing overspreading the central Great Plains, this may be sufficient to maintain convection along deepening/strengthening convective outflow spreading northeastward and eastward through early evening. Although deep-layer shear is weak, the low-level thermodynamic profiles, coupled with 20-30 kt south to southwesterly mean flow in the lower/mid-troposphere, probably will be conducive to a few localized strong to severe downbursts, initially. Gradually, though, gusty winds along consolidating outflows are expected to become the most prominent potential hazard, perhaps approaching or briefly exceeding severe limits. ..Kerr/Gleason.. 06/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 38379755 39409727 39569589 38709555 37519632 37409791 38379755 Read more

MD 1272 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1272 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Areas affected...central and eastern Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 152027Z - 152230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Storms have begun to show signs of upscale growth across parts of central Montana. Risk for damaging wind gusts should gradually increase, possibly requiring eventual WW issuance. DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery shows that storms just east of Great Falls have exhibited some upscale growth in the past hour, as continued heating/weak destabilization combined with low-level southeasterly flow impinges on eastward-moving outflow. The latest Great Falls (KFTX) WSR-88D even suggests some evidence of a weak mesolow crossing northern Chouteau County. While storms are occurring with the axis of relatively greater instability at this time, with slightly less unstable, more capped environment still evident in central Montana, short-term prospects for convective intensity remain somewhat uncertain. Still, with instability increasing farther east, over eastern Montana, it would seem that coverage/intensity of convection will likely become such that WW issuance will need to be considered. Though timing of this potential need for a watch remains uncertain, we will continue to closely monitor the evolving situation across central Montana. ..Goss/Gleason.. 06/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 48090907 48670836 49000579 48480437 46530485 45740845 46030958 48090907 Read more

MD 1271 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 1271 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Areas affected...parts of northeastern Kansas...eastern Nebraska and adjacent portions of the Missouri Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 152005Z - 152230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development appears increasingly probable through 5-7 PM CDT, including the evolution of a few supercells accompanied by the risk for large hail and a couple of tornadoes. DISCUSSION...Modification of the boundary layer, along the western flank of a convectively reinforced surface front, is well underway across portions of northeastern Kansas into eastern Nebraska. Moistening within a confluent regime includes surface dew points rising into the lower 70s, as insolation contributes to continuing surface heating. Mixed-layer CAPE appears to be increasing well in excess of 2000 J/kg, as mid-level inhibition gradually weakens. While the corridor of strongest destabilization is currently near/north and east of an axis (roughly) from Topeka KS through the Concordia KS and Grand Island NE vicinities, this is forecast to continue to shift slowly northward and eastward through early evening, in advance of weak mid-level troughing shifting toward the Missouri Valley (between Omaha and Sioux Falls). As an associated mid-level speed maximum (40+ kt around 700 mb) noses northeast of the central Kansas/Nebraska border, low-level warm advection and enlarging clockwise-curved low-level hodographs may become focused across the Columbus NE through Omaha vicinity, and provide support for intensifying thunderstorm development by 22-00Z. This may include a few supercells, with potential to produce large hail and a couple of tornadoes. ..Kerr/Gleason.. 06/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 41009827 42049849 42739714 41709593 39819581 39249677 39789781 41009827 Read more

WW 0418 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 418 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..06/15/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...EAX...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 418 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-071-085-093-119-129-133-141-143-149-155-167-193-152340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE FREMONT HARRISON IDA LYON MILLS MONONA O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH POTTAWATTAMIE SIOUX WOODBURY KSC013-117-131-157-201-152340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN MARSHALL NEMAHA REPUBLIC WASHINGTON MNC105-133-152340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0419 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 419 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..06/15/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 419 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC005-015-017-027-035-041-045-061-073-077-079-085-087-095-111- 113-115-127-139-143-149-155-161-169-173-177-191-197-152340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BUTLER CHASE CLAY COWLEY DICKINSON DOUGLAS GEARY GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY JACKSON JEFFERSON KINGMAN LYON MCPHERSON MARION MORRIS OSAGE OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE RENO RILEY SALINE SEDGWICK SHAWNEE SUMNER WABAUNSEE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0420 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0420 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0420 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0420 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 420 SEVERE TSTM MT 152155Z - 160300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 420 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Montana * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85 mph likely Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...An intensifying broken band of thunderstorms is forecast to grow upscale into a squall line this afternoon and into the evening across the Watch area. Severe gusts (60-85 mph) will be the primary hazard with the band of storms. Large hail may accompany any more discrete storm on the south flank of the evolving thunderstorm activity during the evening, as well as perhaps a brief risk for a tornado. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northeast of Glasgow MT to 35 miles south southwest of Miles City MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 417...WW 418...WW 419... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 26040. ...Smith Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A longwave mid-level trough across the western CONUS will be the primary driver for fire weather concerns for most of the upcoming week. An embedded shortwave trough is expected to traverse the northern Rockies on Day 3 (Monday), and the associated surface response will induce dry, breezy conditions across the southwestern CONUS. With receptive fuels in the area, a 70% Critical area has been maintained across parts of Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and far southwest Colorado. Surrounding this, a 40% Critical area is maintained. The eastern edge of this area has received some rain in the last 24 hours, so this may mitigate the fire threat, depending on how quickly drying of fuels can occur. In addition, a secondary jet max is expected to translate to the California coast, which is expected to result in some dry, breezy conditions in the California Central Valley. On Day 4 (Tuesday), the primary shortwave trough lifts to the northeast, weakening the flow over the southwestern CONUS. Some dry, breezy conditions with receptive fuels may occur over south-central New Mexico. For Day 5 (Wednesday) and beyond, some fire risk may occur across portions of the southwest CONUS, however confidence is too low to highlight specific areas at this time. ..Supinie.. 06/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A longwave mid-level trough across the western CONUS will be the primary driver for fire weather concerns for most of the upcoming week. An embedded shortwave trough is expected to traverse the northern Rockies on Day 3 (Monday), and the associated surface response will induce dry, breezy conditions across the southwestern CONUS. With receptive fuels in the area, a 70% Critical area has been maintained across parts of Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and far southwest Colorado. Surrounding this, a 40% Critical area is maintained. The eastern edge of this area has received some rain in the last 24 hours, so this may mitigate the fire threat, depending on how quickly drying of fuels can occur. In addition, a secondary jet max is expected to translate to the California coast, which is expected to result in some dry, breezy conditions in the California Central Valley. On Day 4 (Tuesday), the primary shortwave trough lifts to the northeast, weakening the flow over the southwestern CONUS. Some dry, breezy conditions with receptive fuels may occur over south-central New Mexico. For Day 5 (Wednesday) and beyond, some fire risk may occur across portions of the southwest CONUS, however confidence is too low to highlight specific areas at this time. ..Supinie.. 06/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A longwave mid-level trough across the western CONUS will be the primary driver for fire weather concerns for most of the upcoming week. An embedded shortwave trough is expected to traverse the northern Rockies on Day 3 (Monday), and the associated surface response will induce dry, breezy conditions across the southwestern CONUS. With receptive fuels in the area, a 70% Critical area has been maintained across parts of Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and far southwest Colorado. Surrounding this, a 40% Critical area is maintained. The eastern edge of this area has received some rain in the last 24 hours, so this may mitigate the fire threat, depending on how quickly drying of fuels can occur. In addition, a secondary jet max is expected to translate to the California coast, which is expected to result in some dry, breezy conditions in the California Central Valley. On Day 4 (Tuesday), the primary shortwave trough lifts to the northeast, weakening the flow over the southwestern CONUS. Some dry, breezy conditions with receptive fuels may occur over south-central New Mexico. For Day 5 (Wednesday) and beyond, some fire risk may occur across portions of the southwest CONUS, however confidence is too low to highlight specific areas at this time. ..Supinie.. 06/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A longwave mid-level trough across the western CONUS will be the primary driver for fire weather concerns for most of the upcoming week. An embedded shortwave trough is expected to traverse the northern Rockies on Day 3 (Monday), and the associated surface response will induce dry, breezy conditions across the southwestern CONUS. With receptive fuels in the area, a 70% Critical area has been maintained across parts of Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and far southwest Colorado. Surrounding this, a 40% Critical area is maintained. The eastern edge of this area has received some rain in the last 24 hours, so this may mitigate the fire threat, depending on how quickly drying of fuels can occur. In addition, a secondary jet max is expected to translate to the California coast, which is expected to result in some dry, breezy conditions in the California Central Valley. On Day 4 (Tuesday), the primary shortwave trough lifts to the northeast, weakening the flow over the southwestern CONUS. Some dry, breezy conditions with receptive fuels may occur over south-central New Mexico. For Day 5 (Wednesday) and beyond, some fire risk may occur across portions of the southwest CONUS, however confidence is too low to highlight specific areas at this time. ..Supinie.. 06/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A longwave mid-level trough across the western CONUS will be the primary driver for fire weather concerns for most of the upcoming week. An embedded shortwave trough is expected to traverse the northern Rockies on Day 3 (Monday), and the associated surface response will induce dry, breezy conditions across the southwestern CONUS. With receptive fuels in the area, a 70% Critical area has been maintained across parts of Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and far southwest Colorado. Surrounding this, a 40% Critical area is maintained. The eastern edge of this area has received some rain in the last 24 hours, so this may mitigate the fire threat, depending on how quickly drying of fuels can occur. In addition, a secondary jet max is expected to translate to the California coast, which is expected to result in some dry, breezy conditions in the California Central Valley. On Day 4 (Tuesday), the primary shortwave trough lifts to the northeast, weakening the flow over the southwestern CONUS. Some dry, breezy conditions with receptive fuels may occur over south-central New Mexico. For Day 5 (Wednesday) and beyond, some fire risk may occur across portions of the southwest CONUS, however confidence is too low to highlight specific areas at this time. ..Supinie.. 06/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A longwave mid-level trough across the western CONUS will be the primary driver for fire weather concerns for most of the upcoming week. An embedded shortwave trough is expected to traverse the northern Rockies on Day 3 (Monday), and the associated surface response will induce dry, breezy conditions across the southwestern CONUS. With receptive fuels in the area, a 70% Critical area has been maintained across parts of Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and far southwest Colorado. Surrounding this, a 40% Critical area is maintained. The eastern edge of this area has received some rain in the last 24 hours, so this may mitigate the fire threat, depending on how quickly drying of fuels can occur. In addition, a secondary jet max is expected to translate to the California coast, which is expected to result in some dry, breezy conditions in the California Central Valley. On Day 4 (Tuesday), the primary shortwave trough lifts to the northeast, weakening the flow over the southwestern CONUS. Some dry, breezy conditions with receptive fuels may occur over south-central New Mexico. For Day 5 (Wednesday) and beyond, some fire risk may occur across portions of the southwest CONUS, however confidence is too low to highlight specific areas at this time. ..Supinie.. 06/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A longwave mid-level trough across the western CONUS will be the primary driver for fire weather concerns for most of the upcoming week. An embedded shortwave trough is expected to traverse the northern Rockies on Day 3 (Monday), and the associated surface response will induce dry, breezy conditions across the southwestern CONUS. With receptive fuels in the area, a 70% Critical area has been maintained across parts of Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and far southwest Colorado. Surrounding this, a 40% Critical area is maintained. The eastern edge of this area has received some rain in the last 24 hours, so this may mitigate the fire threat, depending on how quickly drying of fuels can occur. In addition, a secondary jet max is expected to translate to the California coast, which is expected to result in some dry, breezy conditions in the California Central Valley. On Day 4 (Tuesday), the primary shortwave trough lifts to the northeast, weakening the flow over the southwestern CONUS. Some dry, breezy conditions with receptive fuels may occur over south-central New Mexico. For Day 5 (Wednesday) and beyond, some fire risk may occur across portions of the southwest CONUS, however confidence is too low to highlight specific areas at this time. ..Supinie.. 06/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A longwave mid-level trough across the western CONUS will be the primary driver for fire weather concerns for most of the upcoming week. An embedded shortwave trough is expected to traverse the northern Rockies on Day 3 (Monday), and the associated surface response will induce dry, breezy conditions across the southwestern CONUS. With receptive fuels in the area, a 70% Critical area has been maintained across parts of Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and far southwest Colorado. Surrounding this, a 40% Critical area is maintained. The eastern edge of this area has received some rain in the last 24 hours, so this may mitigate the fire threat, depending on how quickly drying of fuels can occur. In addition, a secondary jet max is expected to translate to the California coast, which is expected to result in some dry, breezy conditions in the California Central Valley. On Day 4 (Tuesday), the primary shortwave trough lifts to the northeast, weakening the flow over the southwestern CONUS. Some dry, breezy conditions with receptive fuels may occur over south-central New Mexico. For Day 5 (Wednesday) and beyond, some fire risk may occur across portions of the southwest CONUS, however confidence is too low to highlight specific areas at this time. ..Supinie.. 06/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A longwave mid-level trough across the western CONUS will be the primary driver for fire weather concerns for most of the upcoming week. An embedded shortwave trough is expected to traverse the northern Rockies on Day 3 (Monday), and the associated surface response will induce dry, breezy conditions across the southwestern CONUS. With receptive fuels in the area, a 70% Critical area has been maintained across parts of Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and far southwest Colorado. Surrounding this, a 40% Critical area is maintained. The eastern edge of this area has received some rain in the last 24 hours, so this may mitigate the fire threat, depending on how quickly drying of fuels can occur. In addition, a secondary jet max is expected to translate to the California coast, which is expected to result in some dry, breezy conditions in the California Central Valley. On Day 4 (Tuesday), the primary shortwave trough lifts to the northeast, weakening the flow over the southwestern CONUS. Some dry, breezy conditions with receptive fuels may occur over south-central New Mexico. For Day 5 (Wednesday) and beyond, some fire risk may occur across portions of the southwest CONUS, however confidence is too low to highlight specific areas at this time. ..Supinie.. 06/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more