Severe Storms

MD 1276 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 418... FOR EASTERN NE...NORTHEAST KS...SOUTHEAST SD...WESTERN IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1276 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0544 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Areas affected...Eastern NE...northeast KS...southeast SD...western IA Concerning...Tornado Watch 418... Valid 152244Z - 160015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 418 continues. SUMMARY...The tornado threat may increase into this evening, along with continued hail and damaging-wind potential. DISCUSSION...Supercells have recently developed across northeast NE, with another somewhat less organized cluster moving northeastward out of southeast NE. Gradual heating and moistening through the day has resulted in moderate to strong destabilization, with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg across the region per recent objective mesoanalyses. The low-level wind profile depicted by KOAX and KFSD VWPs is favorable for potentially tornadic supercells, with favorable hodograph curvature (0-1 km SRH of greater than 150 m2/s2) and 30-40 kt of flow at 1-3 km above the surface. Rather modest midlevel flow is less favorable, though, which could result in a tendency toward storm clustering with time. The greatest short-term tornado threat appears to reside across northeast NE, given the presence of ongoing semi-discrete supercells. However, the environment downstream of the southeast NE storm cluster also remains favorable for a tornado or two as convection approaches the MO River Valley early this evening, along with some threat for isolated hail and damaging wind. ..Dean.. 06/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 39709759 41829816 42469820 43059759 43229655 43019599 40839568 40039556 39599660 39599707 39709759 Read more

MD 1274 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1274 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Areas affected...Parts of the central/southern High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 152201Z - 160000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible into the early evening. DISCUSSION...High-based thunderstorms have recently developed across southwest KS, with increasing cumulus noted farther south into the TX/OK Panhandles and TX South Plains vicinity. With a mid/upper-level shortwave trough currently over central KS moving away from the region with time, storm coverage may remain somewhat isolated into the early evening. However, MLCAPE of greater than 1500 J/kg and modestly favorable deep-layer shear will support a few marginally organized storms. Isolated severe gusts will be possible within the relatively warm and well-mixed environment across the region, with the strongest storms also potentially capable of producing some hail. ..Dean/Smith.. 06/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 35060077 34440135 34480295 34650345 35110352 35400310 37680113 39290028 39239974 36539956 35060077 Read more

WW 0417 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 417 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..06/15/24 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 417 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC019-031-033-041-055-063-075-081-093-103-105-117-137-160040- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTTE CORSON CUSTER DEWEY HAAKON HARDING JONES LAWRENCE MEADE PENNINGTON PERKINS STANLEY ZIEBACH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 417 SEVERE TSTM SD 152025Z - 160300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 417 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 225 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Central South Dakota * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 225 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue developing over the Black Hills this afternoon. Large hail around 1-2 inches in diameter along with severe/damaging winds of 60-75 mph will be possible as this convection spreads eastward across parts of western and central South Dakota through this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from Lemmon SD to 35 miles west southwest of Philip SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1275 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1275 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0511 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Areas affected...parts of western and central North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 152211Z - 152345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A couple supercells capable of damaging winds and large hail possible in the near term. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed near the surface low across the MT/ND/SD border and along a warm front extending across central North Dakota in the last hour. Daytime heating and increasing low-level moisture has led to dew points in the mid to upper 60s with MLCAPE around 1000-2500 J/kg across southern/central North Dakota. Deep-layer shear around 40-45 kts is in place across western North Dakota, weakening with eastward extent. The 20z sounding from BIS shows rather marginal deep-layer shear for organized storms (around 20 kts). The profile also shows ample instability with 1900 J/kg of MLCAPE and steep lapse rates around 7 C/km throughout the profile. Cells that form along and near the warm front and in western ND where stronger deep-layer shear resides, may take on supercellular modes capable of large hail and damaging winds in the short term. There is considerable uncertainty in the near-term coverage of the severe threat, given the poor handling of this scenario in CAMs. Given uncertainty in coverage, a watch is not likely at this time but this area will be monitored for trends. ..Thornton/Smith.. 06/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 45790112 45900361 46030391 46160396 46610386 47190311 47940178 48190120 48300072 48420012 48309968 47849952 47449942 46809949 45960021 45790112 Read more

WW 0419 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 419 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1277 ..DEAN..06/15/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 419 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC005-015-017-027-035-041-045-061-073-077-079-085-087-095-111- 113-115-127-139-143-149-155-161-169-173-177-191-197-160040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BUTLER CHASE CLAY COWLEY DICKINSON DOUGLAS GEARY GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY JACKSON JEFFERSON KINGMAN LYON MCPHERSON MARION MORRIS OSAGE OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE RENO RILEY SALINE SEDGWICK SHAWNEE SUMNER WABAUNSEE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 419 SEVERE TSTM KS 152135Z - 160300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 419 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 435 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Kansas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 435 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon into the evening. The stronger thunderstorms will mainly be capable of severe gusts (60-80 mph). Isolated large hail may also accompany the more intense thunderstorm cores as this activity moves east into a more unstable airmass over eastern parts of Kansas towards the early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of Manhattan KS to 40 miles south of Wichita KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 417...WW 418... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 21030. ...Smith Read more

WW 0418 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 418 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1276 ..DEAN..06/15/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...EAX...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 418 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-071-085-093-119-129-133-141-143-149-155-167-193-160040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE FREMONT HARRISON IDA LYON MILLS MONONA O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH POTTAWATTAMIE SIOUX WOODBURY KSC013-117-131-157-201-160040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN MARSHALL NEMAHA REPUBLIC WASHINGTON MNC105-133-160040- MN Read more

WW 418 TORNADO IA KS MN MO NE SD 152050Z - 160300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 418 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 350 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western Iowa Northeast Kansas Far Southwest Minnesota Extreme Northwest Missouri Eastern Nebraska Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop and pose a threat for a few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds this afternoon and evening as they spread east-northeastward. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles east northeast of Yankton SD to 45 miles south of Beatrice NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 417... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0417 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 417 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..06/15/24 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 417 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC019-031-033-041-055-063-075-081-093-103-105-117-137-152340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTTE CORSON CUSTER DEWEY HAAKON HARDING JONES LAWRENCE MEADE PENNINGTON PERKINS STANLEY ZIEBACH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1273 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1273 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Areas affected...parts of central into eastern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 152057Z - 152300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development possible through 5-7 PM CDT, with strong gusts approaching or perhaps briefly exceeding severe limits the primary potential hazard. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has recently increased and intensified along the leading edge of outflow associated with weakening initial convective development approaching the I-135/35 corridor of central Kansas. The boundary layer immediately ahead of this activity has become strongly heated and deeply mixed (with surface dew points falling into the lower 60s F as temperatures rose into the mid 90s F), but may still be characterized by weak to modest CAPE. Aided by forcing for ascent associated with weak mid-level troughing overspreading the central Great Plains, this may be sufficient to maintain convection along deepening/strengthening convective outflow spreading northeastward and eastward through early evening. Although deep-layer shear is weak, the low-level thermodynamic profiles, coupled with 20-30 kt south to southwesterly mean flow in the lower/mid-troposphere, probably will be conducive to a few localized strong to severe downbursts, initially. Gradually, though, gusty winds along consolidating outflows are expected to become the most prominent potential hazard, perhaps approaching or briefly exceeding severe limits. ..Kerr/Gleason.. 06/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 38379755 39409727 39569589 38709555 37519632 37409791 38379755 Read more

MD 1272 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1272 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Areas affected...central and eastern Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 152027Z - 152230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Storms have begun to show signs of upscale growth across parts of central Montana. Risk for damaging wind gusts should gradually increase, possibly requiring eventual WW issuance. DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery shows that storms just east of Great Falls have exhibited some upscale growth in the past hour, as continued heating/weak destabilization combined with low-level southeasterly flow impinges on eastward-moving outflow. The latest Great Falls (KFTX) WSR-88D even suggests some evidence of a weak mesolow crossing northern Chouteau County. While storms are occurring with the axis of relatively greater instability at this time, with slightly less unstable, more capped environment still evident in central Montana, short-term prospects for convective intensity remain somewhat uncertain. Still, with instability increasing farther east, over eastern Montana, it would seem that coverage/intensity of convection will likely become such that WW issuance will need to be considered. Though timing of this potential need for a watch remains uncertain, we will continue to closely monitor the evolving situation across central Montana. ..Goss/Gleason.. 06/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 48090907 48670836 49000579 48480437 46530485 45740845 46030958 48090907 Read more

MD 1271 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 1271 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Areas affected...parts of northeastern Kansas...eastern Nebraska and adjacent portions of the Missouri Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 152005Z - 152230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development appears increasingly probable through 5-7 PM CDT, including the evolution of a few supercells accompanied by the risk for large hail and a couple of tornadoes. DISCUSSION...Modification of the boundary layer, along the western flank of a convectively reinforced surface front, is well underway across portions of northeastern Kansas into eastern Nebraska. Moistening within a confluent regime includes surface dew points rising into the lower 70s, as insolation contributes to continuing surface heating. Mixed-layer CAPE appears to be increasing well in excess of 2000 J/kg, as mid-level inhibition gradually weakens. While the corridor of strongest destabilization is currently near/north and east of an axis (roughly) from Topeka KS through the Concordia KS and Grand Island NE vicinities, this is forecast to continue to shift slowly northward and eastward through early evening, in advance of weak mid-level troughing shifting toward the Missouri Valley (between Omaha and Sioux Falls). As an associated mid-level speed maximum (40+ kt around 700 mb) noses northeast of the central Kansas/Nebraska border, low-level warm advection and enlarging clockwise-curved low-level hodographs may become focused across the Columbus NE through Omaha vicinity, and provide support for intensifying thunderstorm development by 22-00Z. This may include a few supercells, with potential to produce large hail and a couple of tornadoes. ..Kerr/Gleason.. 06/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 41009827 42049849 42739714 41709593 39819581 39249677 39789781 41009827 Read more

WW 0418 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 418 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..06/15/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...EAX...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 418 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-071-085-093-119-129-133-141-143-149-155-167-193-152340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE FREMONT HARRISON IDA LYON MILLS MONONA O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH POTTAWATTAMIE SIOUX WOODBURY KSC013-117-131-157-201-152340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN MARSHALL NEMAHA REPUBLIC WASHINGTON MNC105-133-152340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0419 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 419 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..06/15/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 419 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC005-015-017-027-035-041-045-061-073-077-079-085-087-095-111- 113-115-127-139-143-149-155-161-169-173-177-191-197-152340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BUTLER CHASE CLAY COWLEY DICKINSON DOUGLAS GEARY GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY JACKSON JEFFERSON KINGMAN LYON MCPHERSON MARION MORRIS OSAGE OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE RENO RILEY SALINE SEDGWICK SHAWNEE SUMNER WABAUNSEE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0420 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0420 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0420 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0420 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 420 SEVERE TSTM MT 152155Z - 160300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 420 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Montana * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85 mph likely Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...An intensifying broken band of thunderstorms is forecast to grow upscale into a squall line this afternoon and into the evening across the Watch area. Severe gusts (60-85 mph) will be the primary hazard with the band of storms. Large hail may accompany any more discrete storm on the south flank of the evolving thunderstorm activity during the evening, as well as perhaps a brief risk for a tornado. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northeast of Glasgow MT to 35 miles south southwest of Miles City MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 417...WW 418...WW 419... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 26040. ...Smith Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A longwave mid-level trough across the western CONUS will be the primary driver for fire weather concerns for most of the upcoming week. An embedded shortwave trough is expected to traverse the northern Rockies on Day 3 (Monday), and the associated surface response will induce dry, breezy conditions across the southwestern CONUS. With receptive fuels in the area, a 70% Critical area has been maintained across parts of Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and far southwest Colorado. Surrounding this, a 40% Critical area is maintained. The eastern edge of this area has received some rain in the last 24 hours, so this may mitigate the fire threat, depending on how quickly drying of fuels can occur. In addition, a secondary jet max is expected to translate to the California coast, which is expected to result in some dry, breezy conditions in the California Central Valley. On Day 4 (Tuesday), the primary shortwave trough lifts to the northeast, weakening the flow over the southwestern CONUS. Some dry, breezy conditions with receptive fuels may occur over south-central New Mexico. For Day 5 (Wednesday) and beyond, some fire risk may occur across portions of the southwest CONUS, however confidence is too low to highlight specific areas at this time. ..Supinie.. 06/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A longwave mid-level trough across the western CONUS will be the primary driver for fire weather concerns for most of the upcoming week. An embedded shortwave trough is expected to traverse the northern Rockies on Day 3 (Monday), and the associated surface response will induce dry, breezy conditions across the southwestern CONUS. With receptive fuels in the area, a 70% Critical area has been maintained across parts of Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and far southwest Colorado. Surrounding this, a 40% Critical area is maintained. The eastern edge of this area has received some rain in the last 24 hours, so this may mitigate the fire threat, depending on how quickly drying of fuels can occur. In addition, a secondary jet max is expected to translate to the California coast, which is expected to result in some dry, breezy conditions in the California Central Valley. On Day 4 (Tuesday), the primary shortwave trough lifts to the northeast, weakening the flow over the southwestern CONUS. Some dry, breezy conditions with receptive fuels may occur over south-central New Mexico. For Day 5 (Wednesday) and beyond, some fire risk may occur across portions of the southwest CONUS, however confidence is too low to highlight specific areas at this time. ..Supinie.. 06/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more