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1 year 2 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
From Wednesday/D4 into Thursday/D5, an upper trough will move from
Manitoba toward Hudson Bay, with the base of the trough shifting out
of ND/MN. This wave will continue east/northeast into Quebec,
flattening the ridge over the northeastern states. Meanwhile, upper
troughing will exist over the Great Basin, with moderately cool
temperatures aloft. Scattered storms will be likely along the
trailing front from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes,
with perhaps a marginal severe risk given weaker shear and
instability.
Models indicate this western trough may emerge into the northern
Plains Friday/D6 into Saturday/D7, providing perhaps 40 kt midlevel
westerly winds and modest cooling aloft. Such a system may support
areas of strong storms, but overall the threat does not appear
particularly high. However, pockets of stronger instability could
support scattered hail and wind.
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
From Wednesday/D4 into Thursday/D5, an upper trough will move from
Manitoba toward Hudson Bay, with the base of the trough shifting out
of ND/MN. This wave will continue east/northeast into Quebec,
flattening the ridge over the northeastern states. Meanwhile, upper
troughing will exist over the Great Basin, with moderately cool
temperatures aloft. Scattered storms will be likely along the
trailing front from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes,
with perhaps a marginal severe risk given weaker shear and
instability.
Models indicate this western trough may emerge into the northern
Plains Friday/D6 into Saturday/D7, providing perhaps 40 kt midlevel
westerly winds and modest cooling aloft. Such a system may support
areas of strong storms, but overall the threat does not appear
particularly high. However, pockets of stronger instability could
support scattered hail and wind.
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
From Wednesday/D4 into Thursday/D5, an upper trough will move from
Manitoba toward Hudson Bay, with the base of the trough shifting out
of ND/MN. This wave will continue east/northeast into Quebec,
flattening the ridge over the northeastern states. Meanwhile, upper
troughing will exist over the Great Basin, with moderately cool
temperatures aloft. Scattered storms will be likely along the
trailing front from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes,
with perhaps a marginal severe risk given weaker shear and
instability.
Models indicate this western trough may emerge into the northern
Plains Friday/D6 into Saturday/D7, providing perhaps 40 kt midlevel
westerly winds and modest cooling aloft. Such a system may support
areas of strong storms, but overall the threat does not appear
particularly high. However, pockets of stronger instability could
support scattered hail and wind.
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
From Wednesday/D4 into Thursday/D5, an upper trough will move from
Manitoba toward Hudson Bay, with the base of the trough shifting out
of ND/MN. This wave will continue east/northeast into Quebec,
flattening the ridge over the northeastern states. Meanwhile, upper
troughing will exist over the Great Basin, with moderately cool
temperatures aloft. Scattered storms will be likely along the
trailing front from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes,
with perhaps a marginal severe risk given weaker shear and
instability.
Models indicate this western trough may emerge into the northern
Plains Friday/D6 into Saturday/D7, providing perhaps 40 kt midlevel
westerly winds and modest cooling aloft. Such a system may support
areas of strong storms, but overall the threat does not appear
particularly high. However, pockets of stronger instability could
support scattered hail and wind.
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
From Wednesday/D4 into Thursday/D5, an upper trough will move from
Manitoba toward Hudson Bay, with the base of the trough shifting out
of ND/MN. This wave will continue east/northeast into Quebec,
flattening the ridge over the northeastern states. Meanwhile, upper
troughing will exist over the Great Basin, with moderately cool
temperatures aloft. Scattered storms will be likely along the
trailing front from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes,
with perhaps a marginal severe risk given weaker shear and
instability.
Models indicate this western trough may emerge into the northern
Plains Friday/D6 into Saturday/D7, providing perhaps 40 kt midlevel
westerly winds and modest cooling aloft. Such a system may support
areas of strong storms, but overall the threat does not appear
particularly high. However, pockets of stronger instability could
support scattered hail and wind.
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
WW 0423 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 423
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW JMS
TO 10 NNE DVL TO 55 W HCO TO 60 WNW HCO.
..LEITMAN..06/16/24
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 423
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC019-063-067-071-099-160940-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAVALIER NELSON PEMBINA
RAMSEY WALSH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
MD 1287 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 421... FOR PORTIONS OF IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1287
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Areas affected...portions of IA
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 421...
Valid 160647Z - 160815Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 421
continues.
SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may sporadically produce hail the
next couple hours.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms on the back side of an MCV over
western/central IA have occasionally intensified the past hour or
so. Midlevel lapse rates will remain weak over the area due to
earlier convection. However, sufficient instability is present on
the periphery of the MCV, along with enhanced vertical shear, to
sustain briefly strong storms. As convection develops
east/northeast, overall weakening is expected as the airmass becomes
less favorable for severe storms. A new watch is not expected, and
WW 421 will expire at 07z.
..Leitman.. 06/16/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...
LAT...LON 42019570 42469571 42779548 42999492 42869394 42519324
42029304 41539291 41289316 41379404 41569479 41949567
42019570
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
WW 0423 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 423
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE N60
TO 25 NW DVL TO 70 N DVL.
..LEITMAN..06/16/24
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 423
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC005-019-027-063-067-071-095-099-103-160840-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENSON CAVALIER EDDY
NELSON PEMBINA RAMSEY
TOWNER WALSH WELLS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER MUCH
OF MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon
over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward toward the
middle Missouri Valley, or roughly from eastern Nebraska into
Minnesota.
...Synopsis...
On Tuesday, an upper trough will move eastward across the northern
Plains, then northeastward from the upper MS Valley into Ontario as
it impinges upon the upper ridge. Low pressure will move from ND
across northern MN and into western Ontario through 00Z, with a cold
front trailing southwestward across eastern NE and into
central/southwest KS. Southerly flow around the eastern ridge
maintain a moist air mass with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints common
over a very large region south of the cold front.
...Upper MS Valley into middle MO Valley...
Early day storms are forecast to quickly exit the ND/northern MN
region as the warm front pushes north into Canada. Thereafter,
modest heating along with the moist air mass, combined with minimal
cooling aloft, will yield 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE ahead of the front,
where midlevel winds will be roughly parallel to the boundary. This
may support a few linear structures moving quickly northeastward
with the mean flow, and producing locally damaging gusts and
marginal hail.
Farther south along the front and into the central Plains, isolated
strong storms are expected as low-level lapse rates will be steep
from NM into southwest KS. Forecast soundings in this area show
marginal shear but probably enough veering with height to support
slow-moving cells capable of locally large hail or gusty winds.
..Jewell.. 06/16/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER MUCH
OF MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon
over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward toward the
middle Missouri Valley, or roughly from eastern Nebraska into
Minnesota.
...Synopsis...
On Tuesday, an upper trough will move eastward across the northern
Plains, then northeastward from the upper MS Valley into Ontario as
it impinges upon the upper ridge. Low pressure will move from ND
across northern MN and into western Ontario through 00Z, with a cold
front trailing southwestward across eastern NE and into
central/southwest KS. Southerly flow around the eastern ridge
maintain a moist air mass with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints common
over a very large region south of the cold front.
...Upper MS Valley into middle MO Valley...
Early day storms are forecast to quickly exit the ND/northern MN
region as the warm front pushes north into Canada. Thereafter,
modest heating along with the moist air mass, combined with minimal
cooling aloft, will yield 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE ahead of the front,
where midlevel winds will be roughly parallel to the boundary. This
may support a few linear structures moving quickly northeastward
with the mean flow, and producing locally damaging gusts and
marginal hail.
Farther south along the front and into the central Plains, isolated
strong storms are expected as low-level lapse rates will be steep
from NM into southwest KS. Forecast soundings in this area show
marginal shear but probably enough veering with height to support
slow-moving cells capable of locally large hail or gusty winds.
..Jewell.. 06/16/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER MUCH
OF MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon
over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward toward the
middle Missouri Valley, or roughly from eastern Nebraska into
Minnesota.
...Synopsis...
On Tuesday, an upper trough will move eastward across the northern
Plains, then northeastward from the upper MS Valley into Ontario as
it impinges upon the upper ridge. Low pressure will move from ND
across northern MN and into western Ontario through 00Z, with a cold
front trailing southwestward across eastern NE and into
central/southwest KS. Southerly flow around the eastern ridge
maintain a moist air mass with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints common
over a very large region south of the cold front.
...Upper MS Valley into middle MO Valley...
Early day storms are forecast to quickly exit the ND/northern MN
region as the warm front pushes north into Canada. Thereafter,
modest heating along with the moist air mass, combined with minimal
cooling aloft, will yield 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE ahead of the front,
where midlevel winds will be roughly parallel to the boundary. This
may support a few linear structures moving quickly northeastward
with the mean flow, and producing locally damaging gusts and
marginal hail.
Farther south along the front and into the central Plains, isolated
strong storms are expected as low-level lapse rates will be steep
from NM into southwest KS. Forecast soundings in this area show
marginal shear but probably enough veering with height to support
slow-moving cells capable of locally large hail or gusty winds.
..Jewell.. 06/16/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER MUCH
OF MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon
over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward toward the
middle Missouri Valley, or roughly from eastern Nebraska into
Minnesota.
...Synopsis...
On Tuesday, an upper trough will move eastward across the northern
Plains, then northeastward from the upper MS Valley into Ontario as
it impinges upon the upper ridge. Low pressure will move from ND
across northern MN and into western Ontario through 00Z, with a cold
front trailing southwestward across eastern NE and into
central/southwest KS. Southerly flow around the eastern ridge
maintain a moist air mass with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints common
over a very large region south of the cold front.
...Upper MS Valley into middle MO Valley...
Early day storms are forecast to quickly exit the ND/northern MN
region as the warm front pushes north into Canada. Thereafter,
modest heating along with the moist air mass, combined with minimal
cooling aloft, will yield 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE ahead of the front,
where midlevel winds will be roughly parallel to the boundary. This
may support a few linear structures moving quickly northeastward
with the mean flow, and producing locally damaging gusts and
marginal hail.
Farther south along the front and into the central Plains, isolated
strong storms are expected as low-level lapse rates will be steep
from NM into southwest KS. Forecast soundings in this area show
marginal shear but probably enough veering with height to support
slow-moving cells capable of locally large hail or gusty winds.
..Jewell.. 06/16/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER MUCH
OF MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon
over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward toward the
middle Missouri Valley, or roughly from eastern Nebraska into
Minnesota.
...Synopsis...
On Tuesday, an upper trough will move eastward across the northern
Plains, then northeastward from the upper MS Valley into Ontario as
it impinges upon the upper ridge. Low pressure will move from ND
across northern MN and into western Ontario through 00Z, with a cold
front trailing southwestward across eastern NE and into
central/southwest KS. Southerly flow around the eastern ridge
maintain a moist air mass with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints common
over a very large region south of the cold front.
...Upper MS Valley into middle MO Valley...
Early day storms are forecast to quickly exit the ND/northern MN
region as the warm front pushes north into Canada. Thereafter,
modest heating along with the moist air mass, combined with minimal
cooling aloft, will yield 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE ahead of the front,
where midlevel winds will be roughly parallel to the boundary. This
may support a few linear structures moving quickly northeastward
with the mean flow, and producing locally damaging gusts and
marginal hail.
Farther south along the front and into the central Plains, isolated
strong storms are expected as low-level lapse rates will be steep
from NM into southwest KS. Forecast soundings in this area show
marginal shear but probably enough veering with height to support
slow-moving cells capable of locally large hail or gusty winds.
..Jewell.. 06/16/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER MUCH
OF MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon
over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward toward the
middle Missouri Valley, or roughly from eastern Nebraska into
Minnesota.
...Synopsis...
On Tuesday, an upper trough will move eastward across the northern
Plains, then northeastward from the upper MS Valley into Ontario as
it impinges upon the upper ridge. Low pressure will move from ND
across northern MN and into western Ontario through 00Z, with a cold
front trailing southwestward across eastern NE and into
central/southwest KS. Southerly flow around the eastern ridge
maintain a moist air mass with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints common
over a very large region south of the cold front.
...Upper MS Valley into middle MO Valley...
Early day storms are forecast to quickly exit the ND/northern MN
region as the warm front pushes north into Canada. Thereafter,
modest heating along with the moist air mass, combined with minimal
cooling aloft, will yield 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE ahead of the front,
where midlevel winds will be roughly parallel to the boundary. This
may support a few linear structures moving quickly northeastward
with the mean flow, and producing locally damaging gusts and
marginal hail.
Farther south along the front and into the central Plains, isolated
strong storms are expected as low-level lapse rates will be steep
from NM into southwest KS. Forecast soundings in this area show
marginal shear but probably enough veering with height to support
slow-moving cells capable of locally large hail or gusty winds.
..Jewell.. 06/16/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER MUCH
OF MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon
over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward toward the
middle Missouri Valley, or roughly from eastern Nebraska into
Minnesota.
...Synopsis...
On Tuesday, an upper trough will move eastward across the northern
Plains, then northeastward from the upper MS Valley into Ontario as
it impinges upon the upper ridge. Low pressure will move from ND
across northern MN and into western Ontario through 00Z, with a cold
front trailing southwestward across eastern NE and into
central/southwest KS. Southerly flow around the eastern ridge
maintain a moist air mass with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints common
over a very large region south of the cold front.
...Upper MS Valley into middle MO Valley...
Early day storms are forecast to quickly exit the ND/northern MN
region as the warm front pushes north into Canada. Thereafter,
modest heating along with the moist air mass, combined with minimal
cooling aloft, will yield 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE ahead of the front,
where midlevel winds will be roughly parallel to the boundary. This
may support a few linear structures moving quickly northeastward
with the mean flow, and producing locally damaging gusts and
marginal hail.
Farther south along the front and into the central Plains, isolated
strong storms are expected as low-level lapse rates will be steep
from NM into southwest KS. Forecast soundings in this area show
marginal shear but probably enough veering with height to support
slow-moving cells capable of locally large hail or gusty winds.
..Jewell.. 06/16/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER MUCH
OF MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon
over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward toward the
middle Missouri Valley, or roughly from eastern Nebraska into
Minnesota.
...Synopsis...
On Tuesday, an upper trough will move eastward across the northern
Plains, then northeastward from the upper MS Valley into Ontario as
it impinges upon the upper ridge. Low pressure will move from ND
across northern MN and into western Ontario through 00Z, with a cold
front trailing southwestward across eastern NE and into
central/southwest KS. Southerly flow around the eastern ridge
maintain a moist air mass with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints common
over a very large region south of the cold front.
...Upper MS Valley into middle MO Valley...
Early day storms are forecast to quickly exit the ND/northern MN
region as the warm front pushes north into Canada. Thereafter,
modest heating along with the moist air mass, combined with minimal
cooling aloft, will yield 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE ahead of the front,
where midlevel winds will be roughly parallel to the boundary. This
may support a few linear structures moving quickly northeastward
with the mean flow, and producing locally damaging gusts and
marginal hail.
Farther south along the front and into the central Plains, isolated
strong storms are expected as low-level lapse rates will be steep
from NM into southwest KS. Forecast soundings in this area show
marginal shear but probably enough veering with height to support
slow-moving cells capable of locally large hail or gusty winds.
..Jewell.. 06/16/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER MUCH
OF MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon
over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward toward the
middle Missouri Valley, or roughly from eastern Nebraska into
Minnesota.
...Synopsis...
On Tuesday, an upper trough will move eastward across the northern
Plains, then northeastward from the upper MS Valley into Ontario as
it impinges upon the upper ridge. Low pressure will move from ND
across northern MN and into western Ontario through 00Z, with a cold
front trailing southwestward across eastern NE and into
central/southwest KS. Southerly flow around the eastern ridge
maintain a moist air mass with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints common
over a very large region south of the cold front.
...Upper MS Valley into middle MO Valley...
Early day storms are forecast to quickly exit the ND/northern MN
region as the warm front pushes north into Canada. Thereafter,
modest heating along with the moist air mass, combined with minimal
cooling aloft, will yield 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE ahead of the front,
where midlevel winds will be roughly parallel to the boundary. This
may support a few linear structures moving quickly northeastward
with the mean flow, and producing locally damaging gusts and
marginal hail.
Farther south along the front and into the central Plains, isolated
strong storms are expected as low-level lapse rates will be steep
from NM into southwest KS. Forecast soundings in this area show
marginal shear but probably enough veering with height to support
slow-moving cells capable of locally large hail or gusty winds.
..Jewell.. 06/16/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER MUCH
OF MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon
over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward toward the
middle Missouri Valley, or roughly from eastern Nebraska into
Minnesota.
...Synopsis...
On Tuesday, an upper trough will move eastward across the northern
Plains, then northeastward from the upper MS Valley into Ontario as
it impinges upon the upper ridge. Low pressure will move from ND
across northern MN and into western Ontario through 00Z, with a cold
front trailing southwestward across eastern NE and into
central/southwest KS. Southerly flow around the eastern ridge
maintain a moist air mass with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints common
over a very large region south of the cold front.
...Upper MS Valley into middle MO Valley...
Early day storms are forecast to quickly exit the ND/northern MN
region as the warm front pushes north into Canada. Thereafter,
modest heating along with the moist air mass, combined with minimal
cooling aloft, will yield 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE ahead of the front,
where midlevel winds will be roughly parallel to the boundary. This
may support a few linear structures moving quickly northeastward
with the mean flow, and producing locally damaging gusts and
marginal hail.
Farther south along the front and into the central Plains, isolated
strong storms are expected as low-level lapse rates will be steep
from NM into southwest KS. Forecast soundings in this area show
marginal shear but probably enough veering with height to support
slow-moving cells capable of locally large hail or gusty winds.
..Jewell.. 06/16/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER MUCH
OF MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon
over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward toward the
middle Missouri Valley, or roughly from eastern Nebraska into
Minnesota.
...Synopsis...
On Tuesday, an upper trough will move eastward across the northern
Plains, then northeastward from the upper MS Valley into Ontario as
it impinges upon the upper ridge. Low pressure will move from ND
across northern MN and into western Ontario through 00Z, with a cold
front trailing southwestward across eastern NE and into
central/southwest KS. Southerly flow around the eastern ridge
maintain a moist air mass with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints common
over a very large region south of the cold front.
...Upper MS Valley into middle MO Valley...
Early day storms are forecast to quickly exit the ND/northern MN
region as the warm front pushes north into Canada. Thereafter,
modest heating along with the moist air mass, combined with minimal
cooling aloft, will yield 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE ahead of the front,
where midlevel winds will be roughly parallel to the boundary. This
may support a few linear structures moving quickly northeastward
with the mean flow, and producing locally damaging gusts and
marginal hail.
Farther south along the front and into the central Plains, isolated
strong storms are expected as low-level lapse rates will be steep
from NM into southwest KS. Forecast soundings in this area show
marginal shear but probably enough veering with height to support
slow-moving cells capable of locally large hail or gusty winds.
..Jewell.. 06/16/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER MUCH
OF MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon
over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward toward the
middle Missouri Valley, or roughly from eastern Nebraska into
Minnesota.
...Synopsis...
On Tuesday, an upper trough will move eastward across the northern
Plains, then northeastward from the upper MS Valley into Ontario as
it impinges upon the upper ridge. Low pressure will move from ND
across northern MN and into western Ontario through 00Z, with a cold
front trailing southwestward across eastern NE and into
central/southwest KS. Southerly flow around the eastern ridge
maintain a moist air mass with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints common
over a very large region south of the cold front.
...Upper MS Valley into middle MO Valley...
Early day storms are forecast to quickly exit the ND/northern MN
region as the warm front pushes north into Canada. Thereafter,
modest heating along with the moist air mass, combined with minimal
cooling aloft, will yield 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE ahead of the front,
where midlevel winds will be roughly parallel to the boundary. This
may support a few linear structures moving quickly northeastward
with the mean flow, and producing locally damaging gusts and
marginal hail.
Farther south along the front and into the central Plains, isolated
strong storms are expected as low-level lapse rates will be steep
from NM into southwest KS. Forecast soundings in this area show
marginal shear but probably enough veering with height to support
slow-moving cells capable of locally large hail or gusty winds.
..Jewell.. 06/16/2024
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