Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday over much of the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern early Monday morning is forecast to feature expansive ridging centered over the Carolinas that covers much of the eastern CONUS and a cyclone over the Pacific Northwest with associated troughing over the much of the western CONUS. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the northern and central Plains between these two features, with some strengthening of this flow anticipated as the western CONUS cyclone progresses eastward across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains, and the ridging over the eastern CONUS remains in place. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the mid MO Valley into the Upper Midwest, to the north of a warm front expected to extend from a surface low over the southwest NE/northwest KS vicinity northeastward to another low near the WI/MI border. These showers and thunderstorms are expected to gradually shift northeastward throughout the day, remaining mostly north of the warm front. There is some chance that this activity restrengthens during the late afternoon/early evening over east-central MN and central/northern WI, where the warm front is expected to make gradual northward progress during the day. Ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy south of the warm front suggests surface-based supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. However, the overall evolution of this convective cluster still remains a bit uncertain, with some guidance keeping it well north of the warm front. This uncertainty precludes higher probabilities in this outlook. Farther west, late afternoon thunderstorm development appears possible along the lee trough arcing from southeast MT south into far eastern CO/western KS. Highest probabilities for surface-based, late afternoon/early evening storms appears to be across the central High Plains. Any storms that do form could produce hail initially, before quickly becoming more outflow dominant. There is some potential storms develop close enough to one another for upscale growth, with the resulting convective line progressing east-northeastward across southern NE. Thunderstorm development also appears probable across southeast MT amid moisture upslope flow and strengthening large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. These storms will likely be elevated, with hail as the primary hazard, but a few strong gusts could still reach the surface. Isolated storms are possible farther south across the southern High Plains, but warmer temperatures aloft and displacement south of the better large-scale ascent should keep coverage isolated. High-based character to any storms that do develop could promote damaging gusts. The low-level jet is expected to strengthen during the evening, likely increasing to near 60 kt from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Associated warm-air advection will likely result in thunderstorm development north of the warm front across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Enough vertical shear and elevated buoyancy is in place for severe storms, with large hail as the primary hazards. This activity is currently expected to stay north of the warm front, but this front is forecast to move northward through much of MN by early Tuesday. As a result, these is some chance a storms may trend towards becoming surface-based early Tuesday morning if they develop far enough south. ..Mosier.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday over much of the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern early Monday morning is forecast to feature expansive ridging centered over the Carolinas that covers much of the eastern CONUS and a cyclone over the Pacific Northwest with associated troughing over the much of the western CONUS. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the northern and central Plains between these two features, with some strengthening of this flow anticipated as the western CONUS cyclone progresses eastward across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains, and the ridging over the eastern CONUS remains in place. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the mid MO Valley into the Upper Midwest, to the north of a warm front expected to extend from a surface low over the southwest NE/northwest KS vicinity northeastward to another low near the WI/MI border. These showers and thunderstorms are expected to gradually shift northeastward throughout the day, remaining mostly north of the warm front. There is some chance that this activity restrengthens during the late afternoon/early evening over east-central MN and central/northern WI, where the warm front is expected to make gradual northward progress during the day. Ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy south of the warm front suggests surface-based supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. However, the overall evolution of this convective cluster still remains a bit uncertain, with some guidance keeping it well north of the warm front. This uncertainty precludes higher probabilities in this outlook. Farther west, late afternoon thunderstorm development appears possible along the lee trough arcing from southeast MT south into far eastern CO/western KS. Highest probabilities for surface-based, late afternoon/early evening storms appears to be across the central High Plains. Any storms that do form could produce hail initially, before quickly becoming more outflow dominant. There is some potential storms develop close enough to one another for upscale growth, with the resulting convective line progressing east-northeastward across southern NE. Thunderstorm development also appears probable across southeast MT amid moisture upslope flow and strengthening large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. These storms will likely be elevated, with hail as the primary hazard, but a few strong gusts could still reach the surface. Isolated storms are possible farther south across the southern High Plains, but warmer temperatures aloft and displacement south of the better large-scale ascent should keep coverage isolated. High-based character to any storms that do develop could promote damaging gusts. The low-level jet is expected to strengthen during the evening, likely increasing to near 60 kt from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Associated warm-air advection will likely result in thunderstorm development north of the warm front across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Enough vertical shear and elevated buoyancy is in place for severe storms, with large hail as the primary hazards. This activity is currently expected to stay north of the warm front, but this front is forecast to move northward through much of MN by early Tuesday. As a result, these is some chance a storms may trend towards becoming surface-based early Tuesday morning if they develop far enough south. ..Mosier.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday over much of the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern early Monday morning is forecast to feature expansive ridging centered over the Carolinas that covers much of the eastern CONUS and a cyclone over the Pacific Northwest with associated troughing over the much of the western CONUS. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the northern and central Plains between these two features, with some strengthening of this flow anticipated as the western CONUS cyclone progresses eastward across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains, and the ridging over the eastern CONUS remains in place. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the mid MO Valley into the Upper Midwest, to the north of a warm front expected to extend from a surface low over the southwest NE/northwest KS vicinity northeastward to another low near the WI/MI border. These showers and thunderstorms are expected to gradually shift northeastward throughout the day, remaining mostly north of the warm front. There is some chance that this activity restrengthens during the late afternoon/early evening over east-central MN and central/northern WI, where the warm front is expected to make gradual northward progress during the day. Ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy south of the warm front suggests surface-based supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. However, the overall evolution of this convective cluster still remains a bit uncertain, with some guidance keeping it well north of the warm front. This uncertainty precludes higher probabilities in this outlook. Farther west, late afternoon thunderstorm development appears possible along the lee trough arcing from southeast MT south into far eastern CO/western KS. Highest probabilities for surface-based, late afternoon/early evening storms appears to be across the central High Plains. Any storms that do form could produce hail initially, before quickly becoming more outflow dominant. There is some potential storms develop close enough to one another for upscale growth, with the resulting convective line progressing east-northeastward across southern NE. Thunderstorm development also appears probable across southeast MT amid moisture upslope flow and strengthening large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. These storms will likely be elevated, with hail as the primary hazard, but a few strong gusts could still reach the surface. Isolated storms are possible farther south across the southern High Plains, but warmer temperatures aloft and displacement south of the better large-scale ascent should keep coverage isolated. High-based character to any storms that do develop could promote damaging gusts. The low-level jet is expected to strengthen during the evening, likely increasing to near 60 kt from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Associated warm-air advection will likely result in thunderstorm development north of the warm front across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Enough vertical shear and elevated buoyancy is in place for severe storms, with large hail as the primary hazards. This activity is currently expected to stay north of the warm front, but this front is forecast to move northward through much of MN by early Tuesday. As a result, these is some chance a storms may trend towards becoming surface-based early Tuesday morning if they develop far enough south. ..Mosier.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday over much of the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern early Monday morning is forecast to feature expansive ridging centered over the Carolinas that covers much of the eastern CONUS and a cyclone over the Pacific Northwest with associated troughing over the much of the western CONUS. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the northern and central Plains between these two features, with some strengthening of this flow anticipated as the western CONUS cyclone progresses eastward across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains, and the ridging over the eastern CONUS remains in place. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the mid MO Valley into the Upper Midwest, to the north of a warm front expected to extend from a surface low over the southwest NE/northwest KS vicinity northeastward to another low near the WI/MI border. These showers and thunderstorms are expected to gradually shift northeastward throughout the day, remaining mostly north of the warm front. There is some chance that this activity restrengthens during the late afternoon/early evening over east-central MN and central/northern WI, where the warm front is expected to make gradual northward progress during the day. Ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy south of the warm front suggests surface-based supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. However, the overall evolution of this convective cluster still remains a bit uncertain, with some guidance keeping it well north of the warm front. This uncertainty precludes higher probabilities in this outlook. Farther west, late afternoon thunderstorm development appears possible along the lee trough arcing from southeast MT south into far eastern CO/western KS. Highest probabilities for surface-based, late afternoon/early evening storms appears to be across the central High Plains. Any storms that do form could produce hail initially, before quickly becoming more outflow dominant. There is some potential storms develop close enough to one another for upscale growth, with the resulting convective line progressing east-northeastward across southern NE. Thunderstorm development also appears probable across southeast MT amid moisture upslope flow and strengthening large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. These storms will likely be elevated, with hail as the primary hazard, but a few strong gusts could still reach the surface. Isolated storms are possible farther south across the southern High Plains, but warmer temperatures aloft and displacement south of the better large-scale ascent should keep coverage isolated. High-based character to any storms that do develop could promote damaging gusts. The low-level jet is expected to strengthen during the evening, likely increasing to near 60 kt from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Associated warm-air advection will likely result in thunderstorm development north of the warm front across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Enough vertical shear and elevated buoyancy is in place for severe storms, with large hail as the primary hazards. This activity is currently expected to stay north of the warm front, but this front is forecast to move northward through much of MN by early Tuesday. As a result, these is some chance a storms may trend towards becoming surface-based early Tuesday morning if they develop far enough south. ..Mosier.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday over much of the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern early Monday morning is forecast to feature expansive ridging centered over the Carolinas that covers much of the eastern CONUS and a cyclone over the Pacific Northwest with associated troughing over the much of the western CONUS. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the northern and central Plains between these two features, with some strengthening of this flow anticipated as the western CONUS cyclone progresses eastward across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains, and the ridging over the eastern CONUS remains in place. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the mid MO Valley into the Upper Midwest, to the north of a warm front expected to extend from a surface low over the southwest NE/northwest KS vicinity northeastward to another low near the WI/MI border. These showers and thunderstorms are expected to gradually shift northeastward throughout the day, remaining mostly north of the warm front. There is some chance that this activity restrengthens during the late afternoon/early evening over east-central MN and central/northern WI, where the warm front is expected to make gradual northward progress during the day. Ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy south of the warm front suggests surface-based supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. However, the overall evolution of this convective cluster still remains a bit uncertain, with some guidance keeping it well north of the warm front. This uncertainty precludes higher probabilities in this outlook. Farther west, late afternoon thunderstorm development appears possible along the lee trough arcing from southeast MT south into far eastern CO/western KS. Highest probabilities for surface-based, late afternoon/early evening storms appears to be across the central High Plains. Any storms that do form could produce hail initially, before quickly becoming more outflow dominant. There is some potential storms develop close enough to one another for upscale growth, with the resulting convective line progressing east-northeastward across southern NE. Thunderstorm development also appears probable across southeast MT amid moisture upslope flow and strengthening large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. These storms will likely be elevated, with hail as the primary hazard, but a few strong gusts could still reach the surface. Isolated storms are possible farther south across the southern High Plains, but warmer temperatures aloft and displacement south of the better large-scale ascent should keep coverage isolated. High-based character to any storms that do develop could promote damaging gusts. The low-level jet is expected to strengthen during the evening, likely increasing to near 60 kt from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Associated warm-air advection will likely result in thunderstorm development north of the warm front across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Enough vertical shear and elevated buoyancy is in place for severe storms, with large hail as the primary hazards. This activity is currently expected to stay north of the warm front, but this front is forecast to move northward through much of MN by early Tuesday. As a result, these is some chance a storms may trend towards becoming surface-based early Tuesday morning if they develop far enough south. ..Mosier.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday over much of the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern early Monday morning is forecast to feature expansive ridging centered over the Carolinas that covers much of the eastern CONUS and a cyclone over the Pacific Northwest with associated troughing over the much of the western CONUS. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the northern and central Plains between these two features, with some strengthening of this flow anticipated as the western CONUS cyclone progresses eastward across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains, and the ridging over the eastern CONUS remains in place. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the mid MO Valley into the Upper Midwest, to the north of a warm front expected to extend from a surface low over the southwest NE/northwest KS vicinity northeastward to another low near the WI/MI border. These showers and thunderstorms are expected to gradually shift northeastward throughout the day, remaining mostly north of the warm front. There is some chance that this activity restrengthens during the late afternoon/early evening over east-central MN and central/northern WI, where the warm front is expected to make gradual northward progress during the day. Ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy south of the warm front suggests surface-based supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. However, the overall evolution of this convective cluster still remains a bit uncertain, with some guidance keeping it well north of the warm front. This uncertainty precludes higher probabilities in this outlook. Farther west, late afternoon thunderstorm development appears possible along the lee trough arcing from southeast MT south into far eastern CO/western KS. Highest probabilities for surface-based, late afternoon/early evening storms appears to be across the central High Plains. Any storms that do form could produce hail initially, before quickly becoming more outflow dominant. There is some potential storms develop close enough to one another for upscale growth, with the resulting convective line progressing east-northeastward across southern NE. Thunderstorm development also appears probable across southeast MT amid moisture upslope flow and strengthening large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. These storms will likely be elevated, with hail as the primary hazard, but a few strong gusts could still reach the surface. Isolated storms are possible farther south across the southern High Plains, but warmer temperatures aloft and displacement south of the better large-scale ascent should keep coverage isolated. High-based character to any storms that do develop could promote damaging gusts. The low-level jet is expected to strengthen during the evening, likely increasing to near 60 kt from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Associated warm-air advection will likely result in thunderstorm development north of the warm front across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Enough vertical shear and elevated buoyancy is in place for severe storms, with large hail as the primary hazards. This activity is currently expected to stay north of the warm front, but this front is forecast to move northward through much of MN by early Tuesday. As a result, these is some chance a storms may trend towards becoming surface-based early Tuesday morning if they develop far enough south. ..Mosier.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEVADA... An Elevated risk area has been added for portions of the southern Sierra Nevada and western Transverse Ranges in southern California. RH is somewhat marginal for the area, with a minimum of 15-25% expected. However, strong winds (40-50 mph gusts with higher gusts in mountain gaps), rapid drying of fuels, poor overnight RH recovery, and observed rapid growth of the Post fire indicate the threat for additional fire activity in the area. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 06/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deepening western trough will bring an increase in southwesterly flow across much of the desert Southwest this afternoon. Fuels in this region have seen significant drying after several days of warm and dry conditions. Guidance indicates fuels in this region are critically dry, with recent ERCs data indicating 90th percentile for dryness across much of northern and central Arizona. This is further supported by active recent fire activity in this region. Relative humidity reductions to 5-10 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph across central/northern Arizona, southern Utah, and far southeastern Nevada where a Critical delineation was maintained with this outlook. Outside of this region, a more broad area of Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across much of central/southern Utah into southern Arizona, where there is less confidence is sustained Critical wind speeds. Elevated conditions may also extend into portions of western Nevada in the lee of the Sierras. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher) amid modestly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEVADA... An Elevated risk area has been added for portions of the southern Sierra Nevada and western Transverse Ranges in southern California. RH is somewhat marginal for the area, with a minimum of 15-25% expected. However, strong winds (40-50 mph gusts with higher gusts in mountain gaps), rapid drying of fuels, poor overnight RH recovery, and observed rapid growth of the Post fire indicate the threat for additional fire activity in the area. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 06/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deepening western trough will bring an increase in southwesterly flow across much of the desert Southwest this afternoon. Fuels in this region have seen significant drying after several days of warm and dry conditions. Guidance indicates fuels in this region are critically dry, with recent ERCs data indicating 90th percentile for dryness across much of northern and central Arizona. This is further supported by active recent fire activity in this region. Relative humidity reductions to 5-10 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph across central/northern Arizona, southern Utah, and far southeastern Nevada where a Critical delineation was maintained with this outlook. Outside of this region, a more broad area of Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across much of central/southern Utah into southern Arizona, where there is less confidence is sustained Critical wind speeds. Elevated conditions may also extend into portions of western Nevada in the lee of the Sierras. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher) amid modestly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEVADA... An Elevated risk area has been added for portions of the southern Sierra Nevada and western Transverse Ranges in southern California. RH is somewhat marginal for the area, with a minimum of 15-25% expected. However, strong winds (40-50 mph gusts with higher gusts in mountain gaps), rapid drying of fuels, poor overnight RH recovery, and observed rapid growth of the Post fire indicate the threat for additional fire activity in the area. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 06/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deepening western trough will bring an increase in southwesterly flow across much of the desert Southwest this afternoon. Fuels in this region have seen significant drying after several days of warm and dry conditions. Guidance indicates fuels in this region are critically dry, with recent ERCs data indicating 90th percentile for dryness across much of northern and central Arizona. This is further supported by active recent fire activity in this region. Relative humidity reductions to 5-10 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph across central/northern Arizona, southern Utah, and far southeastern Nevada where a Critical delineation was maintained with this outlook. Outside of this region, a more broad area of Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across much of central/southern Utah into southern Arizona, where there is less confidence is sustained Critical wind speeds. Elevated conditions may also extend into portions of western Nevada in the lee of the Sierras. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher) amid modestly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEVADA... An Elevated risk area has been added for portions of the southern Sierra Nevada and western Transverse Ranges in southern California. RH is somewhat marginal for the area, with a minimum of 15-25% expected. However, strong winds (40-50 mph gusts with higher gusts in mountain gaps), rapid drying of fuels, poor overnight RH recovery, and observed rapid growth of the Post fire indicate the threat for additional fire activity in the area. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 06/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deepening western trough will bring an increase in southwesterly flow across much of the desert Southwest this afternoon. Fuels in this region have seen significant drying after several days of warm and dry conditions. Guidance indicates fuels in this region are critically dry, with recent ERCs data indicating 90th percentile for dryness across much of northern and central Arizona. This is further supported by active recent fire activity in this region. Relative humidity reductions to 5-10 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph across central/northern Arizona, southern Utah, and far southeastern Nevada where a Critical delineation was maintained with this outlook. Outside of this region, a more broad area of Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across much of central/southern Utah into southern Arizona, where there is less confidence is sustained Critical wind speeds. Elevated conditions may also extend into portions of western Nevada in the lee of the Sierras. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher) amid modestly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEVADA... An Elevated risk area has been added for portions of the southern Sierra Nevada and western Transverse Ranges in southern California. RH is somewhat marginal for the area, with a minimum of 15-25% expected. However, strong winds (40-50 mph gusts with higher gusts in mountain gaps), rapid drying of fuels, poor overnight RH recovery, and observed rapid growth of the Post fire indicate the threat for additional fire activity in the area. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 06/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deepening western trough will bring an increase in southwesterly flow across much of the desert Southwest this afternoon. Fuels in this region have seen significant drying after several days of warm and dry conditions. Guidance indicates fuels in this region are critically dry, with recent ERCs data indicating 90th percentile for dryness across much of northern and central Arizona. This is further supported by active recent fire activity in this region. Relative humidity reductions to 5-10 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph across central/northern Arizona, southern Utah, and far southeastern Nevada where a Critical delineation was maintained with this outlook. Outside of this region, a more broad area of Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across much of central/southern Utah into southern Arizona, where there is less confidence is sustained Critical wind speeds. Elevated conditions may also extend into portions of western Nevada in the lee of the Sierras. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher) amid modestly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEVADA... An Elevated risk area has been added for portions of the southern Sierra Nevada and western Transverse Ranges in southern California. RH is somewhat marginal for the area, with a minimum of 15-25% expected. However, strong winds (40-50 mph gusts with higher gusts in mountain gaps), rapid drying of fuels, poor overnight RH recovery, and observed rapid growth of the Post fire indicate the threat for additional fire activity in the area. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 06/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deepening western trough will bring an increase in southwesterly flow across much of the desert Southwest this afternoon. Fuels in this region have seen significant drying after several days of warm and dry conditions. Guidance indicates fuels in this region are critically dry, with recent ERCs data indicating 90th percentile for dryness across much of northern and central Arizona. This is further supported by active recent fire activity in this region. Relative humidity reductions to 5-10 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph across central/northern Arizona, southern Utah, and far southeastern Nevada where a Critical delineation was maintained with this outlook. Outside of this region, a more broad area of Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across much of central/southern Utah into southern Arizona, where there is less confidence is sustained Critical wind speeds. Elevated conditions may also extend into portions of western Nevada in the lee of the Sierras. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher) amid modestly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEVADA... An Elevated risk area has been added for portions of the southern Sierra Nevada and western Transverse Ranges in southern California. RH is somewhat marginal for the area, with a minimum of 15-25% expected. However, strong winds (40-50 mph gusts with higher gusts in mountain gaps), rapid drying of fuels, poor overnight RH recovery, and observed rapid growth of the Post fire indicate the threat for additional fire activity in the area. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 06/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deepening western trough will bring an increase in southwesterly flow across much of the desert Southwest this afternoon. Fuels in this region have seen significant drying after several days of warm and dry conditions. Guidance indicates fuels in this region are critically dry, with recent ERCs data indicating 90th percentile for dryness across much of northern and central Arizona. This is further supported by active recent fire activity in this region. Relative humidity reductions to 5-10 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph across central/northern Arizona, southern Utah, and far southeastern Nevada where a Critical delineation was maintained with this outlook. Outside of this region, a more broad area of Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across much of central/southern Utah into southern Arizona, where there is less confidence is sustained Critical wind speeds. Elevated conditions may also extend into portions of western Nevada in the lee of the Sierras. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher) amid modestly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEVADA... An Elevated risk area has been added for portions of the southern Sierra Nevada and western Transverse Ranges in southern California. RH is somewhat marginal for the area, with a minimum of 15-25% expected. However, strong winds (40-50 mph gusts with higher gusts in mountain gaps), rapid drying of fuels, poor overnight RH recovery, and observed rapid growth of the Post fire indicate the threat for additional fire activity in the area. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 06/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deepening western trough will bring an increase in southwesterly flow across much of the desert Southwest this afternoon. Fuels in this region have seen significant drying after several days of warm and dry conditions. Guidance indicates fuels in this region are critically dry, with recent ERCs data indicating 90th percentile for dryness across much of northern and central Arizona. This is further supported by active recent fire activity in this region. Relative humidity reductions to 5-10 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph across central/northern Arizona, southern Utah, and far southeastern Nevada where a Critical delineation was maintained with this outlook. Outside of this region, a more broad area of Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across much of central/southern Utah into southern Arizona, where there is less confidence is sustained Critical wind speeds. Elevated conditions may also extend into portions of western Nevada in the lee of the Sierras. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher) amid modestly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEVADA... An Elevated risk area has been added for portions of the southern Sierra Nevada and western Transverse Ranges in southern California. RH is somewhat marginal for the area, with a minimum of 15-25% expected. However, strong winds (40-50 mph gusts with higher gusts in mountain gaps), rapid drying of fuels, poor overnight RH recovery, and observed rapid growth of the Post fire indicate the threat for additional fire activity in the area. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 06/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deepening western trough will bring an increase in southwesterly flow across much of the desert Southwest this afternoon. Fuels in this region have seen significant drying after several days of warm and dry conditions. Guidance indicates fuels in this region are critically dry, with recent ERCs data indicating 90th percentile for dryness across much of northern and central Arizona. This is further supported by active recent fire activity in this region. Relative humidity reductions to 5-10 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph across central/northern Arizona, southern Utah, and far southeastern Nevada where a Critical delineation was maintained with this outlook. Outside of this region, a more broad area of Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across much of central/southern Utah into southern Arizona, where there is less confidence is sustained Critical wind speeds. Elevated conditions may also extend into portions of western Nevada in the lee of the Sierras. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher) amid modestly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEVADA... An Elevated risk area has been added for portions of the southern Sierra Nevada and western Transverse Ranges in southern California. RH is somewhat marginal for the area, with a minimum of 15-25% expected. However, strong winds (40-50 mph gusts with higher gusts in mountain gaps), rapid drying of fuels, poor overnight RH recovery, and observed rapid growth of the Post fire indicate the threat for additional fire activity in the area. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 06/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deepening western trough will bring an increase in southwesterly flow across much of the desert Southwest this afternoon. Fuels in this region have seen significant drying after several days of warm and dry conditions. Guidance indicates fuels in this region are critically dry, with recent ERCs data indicating 90th percentile for dryness across much of northern and central Arizona. This is further supported by active recent fire activity in this region. Relative humidity reductions to 5-10 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph across central/northern Arizona, southern Utah, and far southeastern Nevada where a Critical delineation was maintained with this outlook. Outside of this region, a more broad area of Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across much of central/southern Utah into southern Arizona, where there is less confidence is sustained Critical wind speeds. Elevated conditions may also extend into portions of western Nevada in the lee of the Sierras. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher) amid modestly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z An Elevated risk area has been added for portions of the southern Sierra Nevada and western Transverse Ranges in southern California. RH is somewhat marginal for the area, with a minimum of 15-25% expected. However, strong winds (40-50 mph gusts with higher gusts in mountain gaps), rapid drying of fuels, poor overnight RH recovery, and observed rapid growth of the Post fire indicate the threat for additional fire activity in the area. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 06/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deepening western trough will bring an increase in southwesterly flow across much of the desert Southwest this afternoon. Fuels in this region have seen significant drying after several days of warm and dry conditions. Guidance indicates fuels in this region are critically dry, with recent ERCs data indicating 90th percentile for dryness across much of northern and central Arizona. This is further supported by active recent fire activity in this region. Relative humidity reductions to 5-10 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph across central/northern Arizona, southern Utah, and far southeastern Nevada where a Critical delineation was maintained with this outlook. Outside of this region, a more broad area of Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across much of central/southern Utah into southern Arizona, where there is less confidence is sustained Critical wind speeds. Elevated conditions may also extend into portions of western Nevada in the lee of the Sierras. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher) amid modestly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms appear possible across parts of the upper Mississippi Valley late this afternoon, with additional storms likely tonight across the north-central Plains to upper Mississippi Valley. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. A small bowing complex, with mainly a severe/damaging wind threat, may also develop across parts of northern Illinois and vicinity this afternoon. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Upper Mississippi Valley... A strong upper trough/low will continue advancing east-northeastward across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces today. While the primary surface low is expected to remain in central Canada, a weak secondary low should develop generally eastward across MN through this evening in tandem with a cold front. Warm mid-level temperatures associated with a cap should tend to inhibit robust convective development for at least a few more hours into the early afternoon. But, most guidance now does show thunderstorm initiation occurring along the front in northern MN by 20-22Z. There are still concerns/uncertainty with how many intense thunderstorms will be able to form given fairly prevalent cloudiness that should temper daytime heating to some extent. Still, strong deep-layer shear and steepening mid-level lapse rates atop a gradually destabilizing low-level airmass should support a threat for supercells and large hail. Some guidance suggests a fairly quick progression to a MCS, which seems reasonable given the linear forcing of the cold front. If this occurs, then a severe/damaging wind threat may persist through the evening into parts of northern WI and the U.P. of MI. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to support low-level updraft rotation and a tornado or two across this region. A separate area of intense thunderstorm development is possible late this afternoon and early evening along the trailing portion of the cold front in NE/northwest KS and vicinity. If convection can initiate along this boundary, strong instability and modest deep-layer shear would support a threat for mainly multicells posing a risk for severe winds given the well mixed boundary layer forecast. Some hail could also occur with marginal supercell structures. The Slight Risk has been expanded southward across the central Plains to account for this scenario. Otherwise, scattered to numerous elevated thunderstorms are still expected to develop this evening and overnight generally north of the front from eastern WY into NE/SD and southern MN. A strengthening low-level jet in this time frame across these regions and ample deep-layer shear/MUCAPE will easily support supercells and a hail threat with initial development. But, convective mode may quickly become messy, with one or more bows/clusters possible as thunderstorms move eastward across the upper MS Valley overnight. Even though this activity should tend to remain elevated, an isolated severe/damaging wind threat may persist given the strong MUCAPE forecast. ...Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin... A well defined MCV remains evident on visible satellite and radar imagery late this morning over northeast MO and southern IA. This feature should continue to track northeastward this afternoon and evening in the modest southwesterly mid-level flow regime across the mid MS Valley/Midwest. Ample daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass should support around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across northern IL and vicinity. Ascent associated with the MCV and its associated mid-level vorticity maximum will likely encourage the development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms by 20-22Z. Modest but sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization is indicated in various RAP forecast soundings across this region. Scattered severe/damaging winds, along with isolated hail, could occur with a small bowing complex that may develop and move east-northeastward across the Chicago metro area late this afternoon and early evening. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to support a low chance for a tornado or two. Given recent guidance and observational trends, a small Slight Risk has been added across northern IL/southern WI to account for this scenario. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated/widely spaced thunderstorms should form once again this afternoon along the length of a surface lee trough/dryline extending southward across the southern High Plains. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain weak, moderate instability and a well-mixed boundary layer should support an isolated threat for severe downdraft winds. Occasional hail may also occur with the more robust cores before convection weakens after sunset. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms appear possible across parts of the upper Mississippi Valley late this afternoon, with additional storms likely tonight across the north-central Plains to upper Mississippi Valley. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. A small bowing complex, with mainly a severe/damaging wind threat, may also develop across parts of northern Illinois and vicinity this afternoon. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Upper Mississippi Valley... A strong upper trough/low will continue advancing east-northeastward across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces today. While the primary surface low is expected to remain in central Canada, a weak secondary low should develop generally eastward across MN through this evening in tandem with a cold front. Warm mid-level temperatures associated with a cap should tend to inhibit robust convective development for at least a few more hours into the early afternoon. But, most guidance now does show thunderstorm initiation occurring along the front in northern MN by 20-22Z. There are still concerns/uncertainty with how many intense thunderstorms will be able to form given fairly prevalent cloudiness that should temper daytime heating to some extent. Still, strong deep-layer shear and steepening mid-level lapse rates atop a gradually destabilizing low-level airmass should support a threat for supercells and large hail. Some guidance suggests a fairly quick progression to a MCS, which seems reasonable given the linear forcing of the cold front. If this occurs, then a severe/damaging wind threat may persist through the evening into parts of northern WI and the U.P. of MI. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to support low-level updraft rotation and a tornado or two across this region. A separate area of intense thunderstorm development is possible late this afternoon and early evening along the trailing portion of the cold front in NE/northwest KS and vicinity. If convection can initiate along this boundary, strong instability and modest deep-layer shear would support a threat for mainly multicells posing a risk for severe winds given the well mixed boundary layer forecast. Some hail could also occur with marginal supercell structures. The Slight Risk has been expanded southward across the central Plains to account for this scenario. Otherwise, scattered to numerous elevated thunderstorms are still expected to develop this evening and overnight generally north of the front from eastern WY into NE/SD and southern MN. A strengthening low-level jet in this time frame across these regions and ample deep-layer shear/MUCAPE will easily support supercells and a hail threat with initial development. But, convective mode may quickly become messy, with one or more bows/clusters possible as thunderstorms move eastward across the upper MS Valley overnight. Even though this activity should tend to remain elevated, an isolated severe/damaging wind threat may persist given the strong MUCAPE forecast. ...Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin... A well defined MCV remains evident on visible satellite and radar imagery late this morning over northeast MO and southern IA. This feature should continue to track northeastward this afternoon and evening in the modest southwesterly mid-level flow regime across the mid MS Valley/Midwest. Ample daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass should support around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across northern IL and vicinity. Ascent associated with the MCV and its associated mid-level vorticity maximum will likely encourage the development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms by 20-22Z. Modest but sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization is indicated in various RAP forecast soundings across this region. Scattered severe/damaging winds, along with isolated hail, could occur with a small bowing complex that may develop and move east-northeastward across the Chicago metro area late this afternoon and early evening. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to support a low chance for a tornado or two. Given recent guidance and observational trends, a small Slight Risk has been added across northern IL/southern WI to account for this scenario. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated/widely spaced thunderstorms should form once again this afternoon along the length of a surface lee trough/dryline extending southward across the southern High Plains. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain weak, moderate instability and a well-mixed boundary layer should support an isolated threat for severe downdraft winds. Occasional hail may also occur with the more robust cores before convection weakens after sunset. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms appear possible across parts of the upper Mississippi Valley late this afternoon, with additional storms likely tonight across the north-central Plains to upper Mississippi Valley. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. A small bowing complex, with mainly a severe/damaging wind threat, may also develop across parts of northern Illinois and vicinity this afternoon. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Upper Mississippi Valley... A strong upper trough/low will continue advancing east-northeastward across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces today. While the primary surface low is expected to remain in central Canada, a weak secondary low should develop generally eastward across MN through this evening in tandem with a cold front. Warm mid-level temperatures associated with a cap should tend to inhibit robust convective development for at least a few more hours into the early afternoon. But, most guidance now does show thunderstorm initiation occurring along the front in northern MN by 20-22Z. There are still concerns/uncertainty with how many intense thunderstorms will be able to form given fairly prevalent cloudiness that should temper daytime heating to some extent. Still, strong deep-layer shear and steepening mid-level lapse rates atop a gradually destabilizing low-level airmass should support a threat for supercells and large hail. Some guidance suggests a fairly quick progression to a MCS, which seems reasonable given the linear forcing of the cold front. If this occurs, then a severe/damaging wind threat may persist through the evening into parts of northern WI and the U.P. of MI. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to support low-level updraft rotation and a tornado or two across this region. A separate area of intense thunderstorm development is possible late this afternoon and early evening along the trailing portion of the cold front in NE/northwest KS and vicinity. If convection can initiate along this boundary, strong instability and modest deep-layer shear would support a threat for mainly multicells posing a risk for severe winds given the well mixed boundary layer forecast. Some hail could also occur with marginal supercell structures. The Slight Risk has been expanded southward across the central Plains to account for this scenario. Otherwise, scattered to numerous elevated thunderstorms are still expected to develop this evening and overnight generally north of the front from eastern WY into NE/SD and southern MN. A strengthening low-level jet in this time frame across these regions and ample deep-layer shear/MUCAPE will easily support supercells and a hail threat with initial development. But, convective mode may quickly become messy, with one or more bows/clusters possible as thunderstorms move eastward across the upper MS Valley overnight. Even though this activity should tend to remain elevated, an isolated severe/damaging wind threat may persist given the strong MUCAPE forecast. ...Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin... A well defined MCV remains evident on visible satellite and radar imagery late this morning over northeast MO and southern IA. This feature should continue to track northeastward this afternoon and evening in the modest southwesterly mid-level flow regime across the mid MS Valley/Midwest. Ample daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass should support around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across northern IL and vicinity. Ascent associated with the MCV and its associated mid-level vorticity maximum will likely encourage the development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms by 20-22Z. Modest but sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization is indicated in various RAP forecast soundings across this region. Scattered severe/damaging winds, along with isolated hail, could occur with a small bowing complex that may develop and move east-northeastward across the Chicago metro area late this afternoon and early evening. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to support a low chance for a tornado or two. Given recent guidance and observational trends, a small Slight Risk has been added across northern IL/southern WI to account for this scenario. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated/widely spaced thunderstorms should form once again this afternoon along the length of a surface lee trough/dryline extending southward across the southern High Plains. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain weak, moderate instability and a well-mixed boundary layer should support an isolated threat for severe downdraft winds. Occasional hail may also occur with the more robust cores before convection weakens after sunset. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 06/16/2024 Read more