Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase across the central High Plains this evening. Severe threat will spread downstream into the upper Mississippi Valley later tonight. Hail is the primary risk. ...01z Update... Broad upper troughing continues across the western US, especially north of the Great Basin. Weak height falls are forecast to spread across the central Rockies into the central Plains; however, water-vapor imagery does not depict any meaningful disturbances approaching this portion of the Plains early this evening. Even so, LLJ is expected to increase across the central High Plains over the next few hours, focusing from western KS into central NE. Nocturnal increase in the jet may be the primary instigator in convective development this evening. 00z sounding from LBF exhibited substantial MUCAPE (>3000 J/kg) if lifting a parcel near 750mb. Saturation has not yet materialized at this level and parcels remain a bit inhibited. However, moisture should advect atop the stalled surface boundary and elevated robust thunderstorms are expected to evolve. Given the steep lapse rates, hail is expected to generated with the stronger updrafts. Thunderstorms that develop along the nose of the LLJ should grow upscale in coverage then spread downstream, possibly in the form of one or more MCSs. ..Darrow.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase across the central High Plains this evening. Severe threat will spread downstream into the upper Mississippi Valley later tonight. Hail is the primary risk. ...01z Update... Broad upper troughing continues across the western US, especially north of the Great Basin. Weak height falls are forecast to spread across the central Rockies into the central Plains; however, water-vapor imagery does not depict any meaningful disturbances approaching this portion of the Plains early this evening. Even so, LLJ is expected to increase across the central High Plains over the next few hours, focusing from western KS into central NE. Nocturnal increase in the jet may be the primary instigator in convective development this evening. 00z sounding from LBF exhibited substantial MUCAPE (>3000 J/kg) if lifting a parcel near 750mb. Saturation has not yet materialized at this level and parcels remain a bit inhibited. However, moisture should advect atop the stalled surface boundary and elevated robust thunderstorms are expected to evolve. Given the steep lapse rates, hail is expected to generated with the stronger updrafts. Thunderstorms that develop along the nose of the LLJ should grow upscale in coverage then spread downstream, possibly in the form of one or more MCSs. ..Darrow.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase across the central High Plains this evening. Severe threat will spread downstream into the upper Mississippi Valley later tonight. Hail is the primary risk. ...01z Update... Broad upper troughing continues across the western US, especially north of the Great Basin. Weak height falls are forecast to spread across the central Rockies into the central Plains; however, water-vapor imagery does not depict any meaningful disturbances approaching this portion of the Plains early this evening. Even so, LLJ is expected to increase across the central High Plains over the next few hours, focusing from western KS into central NE. Nocturnal increase in the jet may be the primary instigator in convective development this evening. 00z sounding from LBF exhibited substantial MUCAPE (>3000 J/kg) if lifting a parcel near 750mb. Saturation has not yet materialized at this level and parcels remain a bit inhibited. However, moisture should advect atop the stalled surface boundary and elevated robust thunderstorms are expected to evolve. Given the steep lapse rates, hail is expected to generated with the stronger updrafts. Thunderstorms that develop along the nose of the LLJ should grow upscale in coverage then spread downstream, possibly in the form of one or more MCSs. ..Darrow.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase across the central High Plains this evening. Severe threat will spread downstream into the upper Mississippi Valley later tonight. Hail is the primary risk. ...01z Update... Broad upper troughing continues across the western US, especially north of the Great Basin. Weak height falls are forecast to spread across the central Rockies into the central Plains; however, water-vapor imagery does not depict any meaningful disturbances approaching this portion of the Plains early this evening. Even so, LLJ is expected to increase across the central High Plains over the next few hours, focusing from western KS into central NE. Nocturnal increase in the jet may be the primary instigator in convective development this evening. 00z sounding from LBF exhibited substantial MUCAPE (>3000 J/kg) if lifting a parcel near 750mb. Saturation has not yet materialized at this level and parcels remain a bit inhibited. However, moisture should advect atop the stalled surface boundary and elevated robust thunderstorms are expected to evolve. Given the steep lapse rates, hail is expected to generated with the stronger updrafts. Thunderstorms that develop along the nose of the LLJ should grow upscale in coverage then spread downstream, possibly in the form of one or more MCSs. ..Darrow.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase across the central High Plains this evening. Severe threat will spread downstream into the upper Mississippi Valley later tonight. Hail is the primary risk. ...01z Update... Broad upper troughing continues across the western US, especially north of the Great Basin. Weak height falls are forecast to spread across the central Rockies into the central Plains; however, water-vapor imagery does not depict any meaningful disturbances approaching this portion of the Plains early this evening. Even so, LLJ is expected to increase across the central High Plains over the next few hours, focusing from western KS into central NE. Nocturnal increase in the jet may be the primary instigator in convective development this evening. 00z sounding from LBF exhibited substantial MUCAPE (>3000 J/kg) if lifting a parcel near 750mb. Saturation has not yet materialized at this level and parcels remain a bit inhibited. However, moisture should advect atop the stalled surface boundary and elevated robust thunderstorms are expected to evolve. Given the steep lapse rates, hail is expected to generated with the stronger updrafts. Thunderstorms that develop along the nose of the LLJ should grow upscale in coverage then spread downstream, possibly in the form of one or more MCSs. ..Darrow.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase across the central High Plains this evening. Severe threat will spread downstream into the upper Mississippi Valley later tonight. Hail is the primary risk. ...01z Update... Broad upper troughing continues across the western US, especially north of the Great Basin. Weak height falls are forecast to spread across the central Rockies into the central Plains; however, water-vapor imagery does not depict any meaningful disturbances approaching this portion of the Plains early this evening. Even so, LLJ is expected to increase across the central High Plains over the next few hours, focusing from western KS into central NE. Nocturnal increase in the jet may be the primary instigator in convective development this evening. 00z sounding from LBF exhibited substantial MUCAPE (>3000 J/kg) if lifting a parcel near 750mb. Saturation has not yet materialized at this level and parcels remain a bit inhibited. However, moisture should advect atop the stalled surface boundary and elevated robust thunderstorms are expected to evolve. Given the steep lapse rates, hail is expected to generated with the stronger updrafts. Thunderstorms that develop along the nose of the LLJ should grow upscale in coverage then spread downstream, possibly in the form of one or more MCSs. ..Darrow.. 06/17/2024 Read more

MD 1292 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL NE INTO NORTHEAST CO AND NORTHWEST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1292 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0622 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Areas affected...Southwest/central NE into northeast CO and northwest KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 162322Z - 170045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening. DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway just southwest of McCook, NE, in the vicinity of a nearly stationary front draped from northeast CO into south-central/northeast NE. Strong buoyancy is in place within the rather hot and well-mixed environment along/south of the front, along with sufficient effective shear (generally 30-35 kt) for some storm organization. Storm coverage may remain rather isolated in the short term in the absence of stronger large-scale ascent, but an isolated supercell or two could form near the front into the early evening, with a threat of large hail and localized severe gusts. Watch issuance in the short term is uncertain, but remains possible if the threat for multiple severe storms appears imminent. Later this evening, a general increase in elevated storm coverage (including the potential for hail) is expected north of the front as a low-level jet intensifies, with watch issuance becoming possible across a larger portion of the region. ..Dean/Smith.. 06/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 39710011 39490128 39490239 39920248 40400135 40820036 41489862 41599824 41189783 40859796 40369875 39979944 39710011 Read more

WW 0424 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 424 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW DNV TO 35 WNW VPZ TO 40 W MKG. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION ..THORNTON..06/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...ILX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 424 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC089-127-170040- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAKE PORTER LMZ743-744-745-777-779-170040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE CALUMET HARBOR IL TO GARY IN GARY TO BURNS HARBOR IN BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE Read more

WW 0424 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 424 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW DNV TO 35 WNW VPZ TO 40 W MKG. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION ..THORNTON..06/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...ILX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 424 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC089-127-170040- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAKE PORTER LMZ743-744-745-777-779-170040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE CALUMET HARBOR IL TO GARY IN GARY TO BURNS HARBOR IN BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE Read more

WW 0424 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 424 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW DNV TO 35 WNW VPZ TO 40 W MKG. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION ..THORNTON..06/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...ILX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 424 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC089-127-170040- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAKE PORTER LMZ743-744-745-777-779-170040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE CALUMET HARBOR IL TO GARY IN GARY TO BURNS HARBOR IN BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE Read more

WW 0424 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 424 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW DNV TO 35 WNW VPZ TO 40 W MKG. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION ..THORNTON..06/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...ILX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 424 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC089-127-170040- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAKE PORTER LMZ743-744-745-777-779-170040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE CALUMET HARBOR IL TO GARY IN GARY TO BURNS HARBOR IN BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE Read more

WW 0424 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 424 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW DNV TO 35 WNW VPZ TO 40 W MKG. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION ..THORNTON..06/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...ILX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 424 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC089-127-170040- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAKE PORTER LMZ743-744-745-777-779-170040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE CALUMET HARBOR IL TO GARY IN GARY TO BURNS HARBOR IN BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE Read more

WW 424 SEVERE TSTM IA IL IN WI LM 161915Z - 170100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 424 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 215 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Eastern Iowa Northern Illinois Far Northwest Indiana Southern Wisconsin Lake Michigan * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A small bowing cluster of thunderstorms should continue to increase in size and intensity this afternoon as it spreads east-northeastward across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Severe/damaging winds around 60-70 mph should be the main threat, but isolated hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter and a brief tornado also appear possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles west southwest of Rockford IL to 50 miles north of Valparaiso IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1292 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL NE INTO NORTHEAST CO AND NORTHWEST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1292 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0622 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Areas affected...Southwest/central NE into northeast CO and northwest KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 162322Z - 170045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening. DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway just southwest of McCook, NE, in the vicinity of a nearly stationary front draped from northeast CO into south-central/northeast NE. Strong buoyancy is in place within the rather hot and well-mixed environment along/south of the front, along with sufficient effective shear (generally 30-35 kt) for some storm organization. Storm coverage may remain rather isolated in the short term in the absence of stronger large-scale ascent, but an isolated supercell or two could form near the front into the early evening, with a threat of large hail and localized severe gusts. Watch issuance in the short term is uncertain, but remains possible if the threat for multiple severe storms appears imminent. Later this evening, a general increase in elevated storm coverage (including the potential for hail) is expected north of the front as a low-level jet intensifies, with watch issuance becoming possible across a larger portion of the region. ..Dean/Smith.. 06/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 39710011 39490128 39490239 39920248 40400135 40820036 41489862 41599824 41189783 40859796 40369875 39979944 39710011 Read more

WW 0424 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 424 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW DNV TO 35 WNW VPZ TO 40 W MKG. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION ..THORNTON..06/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...ILX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 424 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC089-127-170040- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAKE PORTER LMZ743-744-745-777-779-170040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE CALUMET HARBOR IL TO GARY IN GARY TO BURNS HARBOR IN BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE Read more

WW 424 SEVERE TSTM IA IL IN WI LM 161915Z - 170100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 424 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 215 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Eastern Iowa Northern Illinois Far Northwest Indiana Southern Wisconsin Lake Michigan * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A small bowing cluster of thunderstorms should continue to increase in size and intensity this afternoon as it spreads east-northeastward across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Severe/damaging winds around 60-70 mph should be the main threat, but isolated hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter and a brief tornado also appear possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles west southwest of Rockford IL to 50 miles north of Valparaiso IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Gleason Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jun 16 22:45:06 UTC 2024.

WW 0424 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 424 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N BMI TO 45 NE MMO TO 35 WNW MKE. ..THORNTON..06/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...ILX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 424 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC031-043-063-091-097-197-162340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COOK DUPAGE GRUNDY KANKAKEE LAKE WILL INC089-127-162340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAKE PORTER WIC059-079-101-133-162340- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENOSHA MILWAUKEE RACINE WAUKESHA Read more

MD 1291 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 424... FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1291 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Areas affected...northern Illinois and adjacent southeastern Wisconsin Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 424... Valid 162042Z - 162245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 424 continues. SUMMARY...There appears increasing risk for potentially damaging wind gusts as an organizing cluster of storms accelerates into the Greater Chicago and Milwaukee metro areas through 5-6 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...Based on 20Z surface observations, the convectively-generated cold pool remains modest in strength. However, a notable intensification of convection along its leading edge appears underway, and this seems likely to be sustained east-northeastward into the southern Lake Michigan vicinity through 22-23Z, aided by easterly low-level inflow of unstable air characterized by CAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg. Boundary-layer mixing has lowered surface dew points into the 60s F, but lapse rates have become rather steep with temperatures rising through the lower/mid 90s F. With some further increase in temperature differential across the gust front, and strengthening rear inflow, it appears that the forward propagation of the organizing cluster may undergo acceleration toward the Greater Chicago and, perhaps, Greater Milwaukee metro areas through 22-23Z, accompanied by increasing risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 06/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN... LAT...LON 41478742 41018848 40978915 41038940 41418926 41958925 42338947 42908868 42738758 42058689 41478742 Read more

MD 1290 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE OK PANHANDLE...NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WESTERN KANSAS AND FAR EASTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1290 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Areas affected...the OK Panhandle...northern Texas Panhandle...western Kansas and far eastern Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 162039Z - 162215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...There is a threat for isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon capable of large hail or severe wind gusts. DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms have formed in southwest Kansas where the combination of heat (upper 90s) and dewpoints in the low to mid 60s has combined to break the cap. Shear is relatively weak in this area (20 to 25 knots), although some multicells or occasional supercells may be possible. Given the strongly unstable environment downstream (2000+ J/kg MLCAPE), at least some large hail/severe wind threat will persist with this activity as it continues into early evening before weakening near sunset as the boundary layer cools. A better environment is present farther north (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-50 knots of shear) in northwest Kansas and vicinity. However, storm development is more uncertain here with a strong CAP shown by the 20Z LBF RAOB. Some high-based cumulus have developed in this region. If storms can form, they will likely be supercellular with a threat for large to potentially 2+ inch hail and severe wind gusts. Therefore, will continue to monitor this region for a potential watch if development appears imminent this afternoon. Regardless of this afternoon threat, increased severe chances are expected this evening from northwest Kansas northward as the low-level jet strengthens. ..Bentley/Gleason.. 06/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 36080335 37580246 38610246 39300260 39750260 40180134 40190068 39590030 38130032 37900037 36840073 36330143 36120257 36080335 Read more