Severe Storms

MD 1296 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 426... FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN NE...SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHWEST MN...EXTREME NORTHWEST IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1296 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Areas affected...Western/northern NE...south-central/southeast SD...southwest MN...extreme northwest IA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 426... Valid 170434Z - 170600Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 426 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for hail and perhaps isolated strong/severe gusts will continue overnight. DISCUSSION...A band of elevated convection that earlier erupted across northern NE/southern SD has evolved into an elongated storm cluster with occasional embedded elevated supercells. Some recent intensification has also been noted with a storm cluster moving into the southeast part of the NE Panhandle from northeast CO. Moderate to strong elevated buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will support occasionally organized storms into the overnight hours. A strong low-level jet will continue to support rather widespread storm coverage, with a tendency toward a cluster and perhaps eventually a linear mode. This mode evolution may not be ideal for a more organized hail threat, but very steep midlevel lapse rates will result in occasional large-hail potential with the stronger embedded cells. Isolated strong to severe gusts will also be possible, especially if organized upscale growth occurs. Some severe threat may spread into southern MN and far northwest IA with time, and eventual downstream watch issuance is possible if observational trends support maintenance of an organized severe-thunderstorm threat. ..Dean/Smith.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 42570349 43619957 44339729 45089478 44629420 44009395 42749751 41830029 41140165 41080267 41210340 42570349 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the central and northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Central/Northern Plains-upper MS Valley... Strong upper trough is currently located over the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to shift into the northern inter mountain region by mid day, then into the northern Rockies by 18/00z, as an 80kt 500mb speed max rotates through the trough to near the ID/WY border. This is a very dynamic trough and latest model guidance suggests a surface low will be well identifiable over central WY by mid day. As the upper trough approaches the northern Plains late in the period, surface low should reposition itself downstream and track from the NE Panhandle into southeast ND by sunrise Tuesday. This evolution will encourage a warm front to advance north across the upper MS Valley during the latter half of the period, though warm-advection precipitation may slow its northward advance a bit. Early this morning, a notable uptick in warm-advection convection is observed across the central Plains from western NE into southeast SD. This activity should spread/develop northeast along/north of the warm front across southern MN into the upper Great Lakes region. Elevated convection may pose a risk for hail. While the primary concern for thunderstorms will be along the cool side of the boundary, strong heating south of the front will allow surface parcels to approach their convective temperatures. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH will be noted across southeast MN into central WI along the boundary. If thunderstorms can evolve, deep-layer shear may support supercell development. Have adjusted SLGT risk along the warm front to account for both elevated and potentially warm sector storms. Upstream across the High Plains, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the central High Plains of eastern CO into southwest NE. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s convective temperatures will be breached and isolated supercells should develop. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial SBCAPE (>3000 J/kg) and steep lapse rates, along with favorable shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Very large hail may accompany this activity. Some tornado threat will also be noted with these storms. Strong dynamic forcing will encourage convection to develop across the High Plains of northeast WY/southeast MT immediately ahead of the surging cold front. This activity will spread northeast ahead of the short wave into the Dakotas during the overnight hours. After sunset, marked increase in the LLJ is expected across the Plains from eastern NE into western MN. Severe threat will shift into the upper Red River Valley by the end of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the central and northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Central/Northern Plains-upper MS Valley... Strong upper trough is currently located over the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to shift into the northern inter mountain region by mid day, then into the northern Rockies by 18/00z, as an 80kt 500mb speed max rotates through the trough to near the ID/WY border. This is a very dynamic trough and latest model guidance suggests a surface low will be well identifiable over central WY by mid day. As the upper trough approaches the northern Plains late in the period, surface low should reposition itself downstream and track from the NE Panhandle into southeast ND by sunrise Tuesday. This evolution will encourage a warm front to advance north across the upper MS Valley during the latter half of the period, though warm-advection precipitation may slow its northward advance a bit. Early this morning, a notable uptick in warm-advection convection is observed across the central Plains from western NE into southeast SD. This activity should spread/develop northeast along/north of the warm front across southern MN into the upper Great Lakes region. Elevated convection may pose a risk for hail. While the primary concern for thunderstorms will be along the cool side of the boundary, strong heating south of the front will allow surface parcels to approach their convective temperatures. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH will be noted across southeast MN into central WI along the boundary. If thunderstorms can evolve, deep-layer shear may support supercell development. Have adjusted SLGT risk along the warm front to account for both elevated and potentially warm sector storms. Upstream across the High Plains, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the central High Plains of eastern CO into southwest NE. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s convective temperatures will be breached and isolated supercells should develop. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial SBCAPE (>3000 J/kg) and steep lapse rates, along with favorable shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Very large hail may accompany this activity. Some tornado threat will also be noted with these storms. Strong dynamic forcing will encourage convection to develop across the High Plains of northeast WY/southeast MT immediately ahead of the surging cold front. This activity will spread northeast ahead of the short wave into the Dakotas during the overnight hours. After sunset, marked increase in the LLJ is expected across the Plains from eastern NE into western MN. Severe threat will shift into the upper Red River Valley by the end of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the central and northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Central/Northern Plains-upper MS Valley... Strong upper trough is currently located over the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to shift into the northern inter mountain region by mid day, then into the northern Rockies by 18/00z, as an 80kt 500mb speed max rotates through the trough to near the ID/WY border. This is a very dynamic trough and latest model guidance suggests a surface low will be well identifiable over central WY by mid day. As the upper trough approaches the northern Plains late in the period, surface low should reposition itself downstream and track from the NE Panhandle into southeast ND by sunrise Tuesday. This evolution will encourage a warm front to advance north across the upper MS Valley during the latter half of the period, though warm-advection precipitation may slow its northward advance a bit. Early this morning, a notable uptick in warm-advection convection is observed across the central Plains from western NE into southeast SD. This activity should spread/develop northeast along/north of the warm front across southern MN into the upper Great Lakes region. Elevated convection may pose a risk for hail. While the primary concern for thunderstorms will be along the cool side of the boundary, strong heating south of the front will allow surface parcels to approach their convective temperatures. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH will be noted across southeast MN into central WI along the boundary. If thunderstorms can evolve, deep-layer shear may support supercell development. Have adjusted SLGT risk along the warm front to account for both elevated and potentially warm sector storms. Upstream across the High Plains, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the central High Plains of eastern CO into southwest NE. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s convective temperatures will be breached and isolated supercells should develop. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial SBCAPE (>3000 J/kg) and steep lapse rates, along with favorable shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Very large hail may accompany this activity. Some tornado threat will also be noted with these storms. Strong dynamic forcing will encourage convection to develop across the High Plains of northeast WY/southeast MT immediately ahead of the surging cold front. This activity will spread northeast ahead of the short wave into the Dakotas during the overnight hours. After sunset, marked increase in the LLJ is expected across the Plains from eastern NE into western MN. Severe threat will shift into the upper Red River Valley by the end of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the central and northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Central/Northern Plains-upper MS Valley... Strong upper trough is currently located over the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to shift into the northern inter mountain region by mid day, then into the northern Rockies by 18/00z, as an 80kt 500mb speed max rotates through the trough to near the ID/WY border. This is a very dynamic trough and latest model guidance suggests a surface low will be well identifiable over central WY by mid day. As the upper trough approaches the northern Plains late in the period, surface low should reposition itself downstream and track from the NE Panhandle into southeast ND by sunrise Tuesday. This evolution will encourage a warm front to advance north across the upper MS Valley during the latter half of the period, though warm-advection precipitation may slow its northward advance a bit. Early this morning, a notable uptick in warm-advection convection is observed across the central Plains from western NE into southeast SD. This activity should spread/develop northeast along/north of the warm front across southern MN into the upper Great Lakes region. Elevated convection may pose a risk for hail. While the primary concern for thunderstorms will be along the cool side of the boundary, strong heating south of the front will allow surface parcels to approach their convective temperatures. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH will be noted across southeast MN into central WI along the boundary. If thunderstorms can evolve, deep-layer shear may support supercell development. Have adjusted SLGT risk along the warm front to account for both elevated and potentially warm sector storms. Upstream across the High Plains, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the central High Plains of eastern CO into southwest NE. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s convective temperatures will be breached and isolated supercells should develop. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial SBCAPE (>3000 J/kg) and steep lapse rates, along with favorable shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Very large hail may accompany this activity. Some tornado threat will also be noted with these storms. Strong dynamic forcing will encourage convection to develop across the High Plains of northeast WY/southeast MT immediately ahead of the surging cold front. This activity will spread northeast ahead of the short wave into the Dakotas during the overnight hours. After sunset, marked increase in the LLJ is expected across the Plains from eastern NE into western MN. Severe threat will shift into the upper Red River Valley by the end of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the central and northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Central/Northern Plains-upper MS Valley... Strong upper trough is currently located over the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to shift into the northern inter mountain region by mid day, then into the northern Rockies by 18/00z, as an 80kt 500mb speed max rotates through the trough to near the ID/WY border. This is a very dynamic trough and latest model guidance suggests a surface low will be well identifiable over central WY by mid day. As the upper trough approaches the northern Plains late in the period, surface low should reposition itself downstream and track from the NE Panhandle into southeast ND by sunrise Tuesday. This evolution will encourage a warm front to advance north across the upper MS Valley during the latter half of the period, though warm-advection precipitation may slow its northward advance a bit. Early this morning, a notable uptick in warm-advection convection is observed across the central Plains from western NE into southeast SD. This activity should spread/develop northeast along/north of the warm front across southern MN into the upper Great Lakes region. Elevated convection may pose a risk for hail. While the primary concern for thunderstorms will be along the cool side of the boundary, strong heating south of the front will allow surface parcels to approach their convective temperatures. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH will be noted across southeast MN into central WI along the boundary. If thunderstorms can evolve, deep-layer shear may support supercell development. Have adjusted SLGT risk along the warm front to account for both elevated and potentially warm sector storms. Upstream across the High Plains, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the central High Plains of eastern CO into southwest NE. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s convective temperatures will be breached and isolated supercells should develop. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial SBCAPE (>3000 J/kg) and steep lapse rates, along with favorable shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Very large hail may accompany this activity. Some tornado threat will also be noted with these storms. Strong dynamic forcing will encourage convection to develop across the High Plains of northeast WY/southeast MT immediately ahead of the surging cold front. This activity will spread northeast ahead of the short wave into the Dakotas during the overnight hours. After sunset, marked increase in the LLJ is expected across the Plains from eastern NE into western MN. Severe threat will shift into the upper Red River Valley by the end of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the central and northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Central/Northern Plains-upper MS Valley... Strong upper trough is currently located over the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to shift into the northern inter mountain region by mid day, then into the northern Rockies by 18/00z, as an 80kt 500mb speed max rotates through the trough to near the ID/WY border. This is a very dynamic trough and latest model guidance suggests a surface low will be well identifiable over central WY by mid day. As the upper trough approaches the northern Plains late in the period, surface low should reposition itself downstream and track from the NE Panhandle into southeast ND by sunrise Tuesday. This evolution will encourage a warm front to advance north across the upper MS Valley during the latter half of the period, though warm-advection precipitation may slow its northward advance a bit. Early this morning, a notable uptick in warm-advection convection is observed across the central Plains from western NE into southeast SD. This activity should spread/develop northeast along/north of the warm front across southern MN into the upper Great Lakes region. Elevated convection may pose a risk for hail. While the primary concern for thunderstorms will be along the cool side of the boundary, strong heating south of the front will allow surface parcels to approach their convective temperatures. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH will be noted across southeast MN into central WI along the boundary. If thunderstorms can evolve, deep-layer shear may support supercell development. Have adjusted SLGT risk along the warm front to account for both elevated and potentially warm sector storms. Upstream across the High Plains, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the central High Plains of eastern CO into southwest NE. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s convective temperatures will be breached and isolated supercells should develop. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial SBCAPE (>3000 J/kg) and steep lapse rates, along with favorable shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Very large hail may accompany this activity. Some tornado threat will also be noted with these storms. Strong dynamic forcing will encourage convection to develop across the High Plains of northeast WY/southeast MT immediately ahead of the surging cold front. This activity will spread northeast ahead of the short wave into the Dakotas during the overnight hours. After sunset, marked increase in the LLJ is expected across the Plains from eastern NE into western MN. Severe threat will shift into the upper Red River Valley by the end of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the central and northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Central/Northern Plains-upper MS Valley... Strong upper trough is currently located over the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to shift into the northern inter mountain region by mid day, then into the northern Rockies by 18/00z, as an 80kt 500mb speed max rotates through the trough to near the ID/WY border. This is a very dynamic trough and latest model guidance suggests a surface low will be well identifiable over central WY by mid day. As the upper trough approaches the northern Plains late in the period, surface low should reposition itself downstream and track from the NE Panhandle into southeast ND by sunrise Tuesday. This evolution will encourage a warm front to advance north across the upper MS Valley during the latter half of the period, though warm-advection precipitation may slow its northward advance a bit. Early this morning, a notable uptick in warm-advection convection is observed across the central Plains from western NE into southeast SD. This activity should spread/develop northeast along/north of the warm front across southern MN into the upper Great Lakes region. Elevated convection may pose a risk for hail. While the primary concern for thunderstorms will be along the cool side of the boundary, strong heating south of the front will allow surface parcels to approach their convective temperatures. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH will be noted across southeast MN into central WI along the boundary. If thunderstorms can evolve, deep-layer shear may support supercell development. Have adjusted SLGT risk along the warm front to account for both elevated and potentially warm sector storms. Upstream across the High Plains, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the central High Plains of eastern CO into southwest NE. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s convective temperatures will be breached and isolated supercells should develop. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial SBCAPE (>3000 J/kg) and steep lapse rates, along with favorable shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Very large hail may accompany this activity. Some tornado threat will also be noted with these storms. Strong dynamic forcing will encourage convection to develop across the High Plains of northeast WY/southeast MT immediately ahead of the surging cold front. This activity will spread northeast ahead of the short wave into the Dakotas during the overnight hours. After sunset, marked increase in the LLJ is expected across the Plains from eastern NE into western MN. Severe threat will shift into the upper Red River Valley by the end of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the central and northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Central/Northern Plains-upper MS Valley... Strong upper trough is currently located over the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to shift into the northern inter mountain region by mid day, then into the northern Rockies by 18/00z, as an 80kt 500mb speed max rotates through the trough to near the ID/WY border. This is a very dynamic trough and latest model guidance suggests a surface low will be well identifiable over central WY by mid day. As the upper trough approaches the northern Plains late in the period, surface low should reposition itself downstream and track from the NE Panhandle into southeast ND by sunrise Tuesday. This evolution will encourage a warm front to advance north across the upper MS Valley during the latter half of the period, though warm-advection precipitation may slow its northward advance a bit. Early this morning, a notable uptick in warm-advection convection is observed across the central Plains from western NE into southeast SD. This activity should spread/develop northeast along/north of the warm front across southern MN into the upper Great Lakes region. Elevated convection may pose a risk for hail. While the primary concern for thunderstorms will be along the cool side of the boundary, strong heating south of the front will allow surface parcels to approach their convective temperatures. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH will be noted across southeast MN into central WI along the boundary. If thunderstorms can evolve, deep-layer shear may support supercell development. Have adjusted SLGT risk along the warm front to account for both elevated and potentially warm sector storms. Upstream across the High Plains, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the central High Plains of eastern CO into southwest NE. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s convective temperatures will be breached and isolated supercells should develop. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial SBCAPE (>3000 J/kg) and steep lapse rates, along with favorable shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Very large hail may accompany this activity. Some tornado threat will also be noted with these storms. Strong dynamic forcing will encourage convection to develop across the High Plains of northeast WY/southeast MT immediately ahead of the surging cold front. This activity will spread northeast ahead of the short wave into the Dakotas during the overnight hours. After sunset, marked increase in the LLJ is expected across the Plains from eastern NE into western MN. Severe threat will shift into the upper Red River Valley by the end of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the central and northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Central/Northern Plains-upper MS Valley... Strong upper trough is currently located over the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to shift into the northern inter mountain region by mid day, then into the northern Rockies by 18/00z, as an 80kt 500mb speed max rotates through the trough to near the ID/WY border. This is a very dynamic trough and latest model guidance suggests a surface low will be well identifiable over central WY by mid day. As the upper trough approaches the northern Plains late in the period, surface low should reposition itself downstream and track from the NE Panhandle into southeast ND by sunrise Tuesday. This evolution will encourage a warm front to advance north across the upper MS Valley during the latter half of the period, though warm-advection precipitation may slow its northward advance a bit. Early this morning, a notable uptick in warm-advection convection is observed across the central Plains from western NE into southeast SD. This activity should spread/develop northeast along/north of the warm front across southern MN into the upper Great Lakes region. Elevated convection may pose a risk for hail. While the primary concern for thunderstorms will be along the cool side of the boundary, strong heating south of the front will allow surface parcels to approach their convective temperatures. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH will be noted across southeast MN into central WI along the boundary. If thunderstorms can evolve, deep-layer shear may support supercell development. Have adjusted SLGT risk along the warm front to account for both elevated and potentially warm sector storms. Upstream across the High Plains, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the central High Plains of eastern CO into southwest NE. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s convective temperatures will be breached and isolated supercells should develop. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial SBCAPE (>3000 J/kg) and steep lapse rates, along with favorable shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Very large hail may accompany this activity. Some tornado threat will also be noted with these storms. Strong dynamic forcing will encourage convection to develop across the High Plains of northeast WY/southeast MT immediately ahead of the surging cold front. This activity will spread northeast ahead of the short wave into the Dakotas during the overnight hours. After sunset, marked increase in the LLJ is expected across the Plains from eastern NE into western MN. Severe threat will shift into the upper Red River Valley by the end of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the central and northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Central/Northern Plains-upper MS Valley... Strong upper trough is currently located over the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to shift into the northern inter mountain region by mid day, then into the northern Rockies by 18/00z, as an 80kt 500mb speed max rotates through the trough to near the ID/WY border. This is a very dynamic trough and latest model guidance suggests a surface low will be well identifiable over central WY by mid day. As the upper trough approaches the northern Plains late in the period, surface low should reposition itself downstream and track from the NE Panhandle into southeast ND by sunrise Tuesday. This evolution will encourage a warm front to advance north across the upper MS Valley during the latter half of the period, though warm-advection precipitation may slow its northward advance a bit. Early this morning, a notable uptick in warm-advection convection is observed across the central Plains from western NE into southeast SD. This activity should spread/develop northeast along/north of the warm front across southern MN into the upper Great Lakes region. Elevated convection may pose a risk for hail. While the primary concern for thunderstorms will be along the cool side of the boundary, strong heating south of the front will allow surface parcels to approach their convective temperatures. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH will be noted across southeast MN into central WI along the boundary. If thunderstorms can evolve, deep-layer shear may support supercell development. Have adjusted SLGT risk along the warm front to account for both elevated and potentially warm sector storms. Upstream across the High Plains, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the central High Plains of eastern CO into southwest NE. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s convective temperatures will be breached and isolated supercells should develop. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial SBCAPE (>3000 J/kg) and steep lapse rates, along with favorable shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Very large hail may accompany this activity. Some tornado threat will also be noted with these storms. Strong dynamic forcing will encourage convection to develop across the High Plains of northeast WY/southeast MT immediately ahead of the surging cold front. This activity will spread northeast ahead of the short wave into the Dakotas during the overnight hours. After sunset, marked increase in the LLJ is expected across the Plains from eastern NE into western MN. Severe threat will shift into the upper Red River Valley by the end of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the central and northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Central/Northern Plains-upper MS Valley... Strong upper trough is currently located over the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to shift into the northern inter mountain region by mid day, then into the northern Rockies by 18/00z, as an 80kt 500mb speed max rotates through the trough to near the ID/WY border. This is a very dynamic trough and latest model guidance suggests a surface low will be well identifiable over central WY by mid day. As the upper trough approaches the northern Plains late in the period, surface low should reposition itself downstream and track from the NE Panhandle into southeast ND by sunrise Tuesday. This evolution will encourage a warm front to advance north across the upper MS Valley during the latter half of the period, though warm-advection precipitation may slow its northward advance a bit. Early this morning, a notable uptick in warm-advection convection is observed across the central Plains from western NE into southeast SD. This activity should spread/develop northeast along/north of the warm front across southern MN into the upper Great Lakes region. Elevated convection may pose a risk for hail. While the primary concern for thunderstorms will be along the cool side of the boundary, strong heating south of the front will allow surface parcels to approach their convective temperatures. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH will be noted across southeast MN into central WI along the boundary. If thunderstorms can evolve, deep-layer shear may support supercell development. Have adjusted SLGT risk along the warm front to account for both elevated and potentially warm sector storms. Upstream across the High Plains, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the central High Plains of eastern CO into southwest NE. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s convective temperatures will be breached and isolated supercells should develop. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial SBCAPE (>3000 J/kg) and steep lapse rates, along with favorable shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Very large hail may accompany this activity. Some tornado threat will also be noted with these storms. Strong dynamic forcing will encourage convection to develop across the High Plains of northeast WY/southeast MT immediately ahead of the surging cold front. This activity will spread northeast ahead of the short wave into the Dakotas during the overnight hours. After sunset, marked increase in the LLJ is expected across the Plains from eastern NE into western MN. Severe threat will shift into the upper Red River Valley by the end of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the central and northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Central/Northern Plains-upper MS Valley... Strong upper trough is currently located over the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to shift into the northern inter mountain region by mid day, then into the northern Rockies by 18/00z, as an 80kt 500mb speed max rotates through the trough to near the ID/WY border. This is a very dynamic trough and latest model guidance suggests a surface low will be well identifiable over central WY by mid day. As the upper trough approaches the northern Plains late in the period, surface low should reposition itself downstream and track from the NE Panhandle into southeast ND by sunrise Tuesday. This evolution will encourage a warm front to advance north across the upper MS Valley during the latter half of the period, though warm-advection precipitation may slow its northward advance a bit. Early this morning, a notable uptick in warm-advection convection is observed across the central Plains from western NE into southeast SD. This activity should spread/develop northeast along/north of the warm front across southern MN into the upper Great Lakes region. Elevated convection may pose a risk for hail. While the primary concern for thunderstorms will be along the cool side of the boundary, strong heating south of the front will allow surface parcels to approach their convective temperatures. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH will be noted across southeast MN into central WI along the boundary. If thunderstorms can evolve, deep-layer shear may support supercell development. Have adjusted SLGT risk along the warm front to account for both elevated and potentially warm sector storms. Upstream across the High Plains, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the central High Plains of eastern CO into southwest NE. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s convective temperatures will be breached and isolated supercells should develop. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial SBCAPE (>3000 J/kg) and steep lapse rates, along with favorable shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Very large hail may accompany this activity. Some tornado threat will also be noted with these storms. Strong dynamic forcing will encourage convection to develop across the High Plains of northeast WY/southeast MT immediately ahead of the surging cold front. This activity will spread northeast ahead of the short wave into the Dakotas during the overnight hours. After sunset, marked increase in the LLJ is expected across the Plains from eastern NE into western MN. Severe threat will shift into the upper Red River Valley by the end of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the central and northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Central/Northern Plains-upper MS Valley... Strong upper trough is currently located over the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to shift into the northern inter mountain region by mid day, then into the northern Rockies by 18/00z, as an 80kt 500mb speed max rotates through the trough to near the ID/WY border. This is a very dynamic trough and latest model guidance suggests a surface low will be well identifiable over central WY by mid day. As the upper trough approaches the northern Plains late in the period, surface low should reposition itself downstream and track from the NE Panhandle into southeast ND by sunrise Tuesday. This evolution will encourage a warm front to advance north across the upper MS Valley during the latter half of the period, though warm-advection precipitation may slow its northward advance a bit. Early this morning, a notable uptick in warm-advection convection is observed across the central Plains from western NE into southeast SD. This activity should spread/develop northeast along/north of the warm front across southern MN into the upper Great Lakes region. Elevated convection may pose a risk for hail. While the primary concern for thunderstorms will be along the cool side of the boundary, strong heating south of the front will allow surface parcels to approach their convective temperatures. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH will be noted across southeast MN into central WI along the boundary. If thunderstorms can evolve, deep-layer shear may support supercell development. Have adjusted SLGT risk along the warm front to account for both elevated and potentially warm sector storms. Upstream across the High Plains, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the central High Plains of eastern CO into southwest NE. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s convective temperatures will be breached and isolated supercells should develop. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial SBCAPE (>3000 J/kg) and steep lapse rates, along with favorable shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Very large hail may accompany this activity. Some tornado threat will also be noted with these storms. Strong dynamic forcing will encourage convection to develop across the High Plains of northeast WY/southeast MT immediately ahead of the surging cold front. This activity will spread northeast ahead of the short wave into the Dakotas during the overnight hours. After sunset, marked increase in the LLJ is expected across the Plains from eastern NE into western MN. Severe threat will shift into the upper Red River Valley by the end of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/17/2024 Read more

WW 0426 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW IML TO 25 E AIA TO 35 W CDR. ..LEITMAN..06/17/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...FSD...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-015-017-031-045-051-075-089-091-101-103-117-149-161-171- 170640- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BOYD BROWN CHERRY DAWES DIXON GRANT HOLT HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA MCPHERSON ROCK SHERIDAN THOMAS SDC003-007-009-011-015-017-023-027-035-043-053-061-067-071-073- 075-079-083-085-087-095-097-099-101-102-111-121-123-125-135- 170640- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AURORA BENNETT BON HOMME BROOKINGS BRULE BUFFALO CHARLES MIX CLAY DAVISON DOUGLAS GREGORY HANSON HUTCHINSON JACKSON JERAULD Read more

MD 1295 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 425... FOR SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NE
Mesoscale Discussion 1295 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Areas affected...Southwest/central/northeast NE Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 425... Valid 170342Z - 170515Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 425 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated severe storm or two cannot be ruled out into the early overnight hours. DISCUSSION...An earlier prolific hail-producing supercell has weakened across southwest NE late this evening, while other storms from south-central into northeast NE have failed to mature thus far. Some potential remains for one of the lingering areas of convection to flare up over the next 1-2 hours, as a low-level jet continues to strengthen across the region. This may be most likely near/north of a surface front that will move slowly northward tonight. However, with the strongest ascent becoming focused farther north (into northern NE and southern SD), the window of opportunity for redevelopment closer to the surface front may be relatively limited. ..Dean.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 40600117 41809885 42459750 42579706 42469665 42039665 41689671 41269712 40239904 40479979 40440022 40470104 40600117 Read more

WW 0425 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 425 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW SUX TO 20 ESE IML. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1295 ..DEAN..06/17/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 425 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC027-107-170540- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CEDAR KNOX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0425 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 425 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW SUX TO 20 ESE IML. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1295 ..DEAN..06/17/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 425 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC027-107-170540- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CEDAR KNOX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0425 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 425 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW SUX TO 20 ESE IML. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1295 ..DEAN..06/17/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 425 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC027-107-170540- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CEDAR KNOX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0425 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 425 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW SUX TO 20 ESE IML. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1295 ..DEAN..06/17/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 425 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC027-107-170540- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CEDAR KNOX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more