Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the central and northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Central/Northern Plains-upper MS Valley... Strong upper trough is currently located over the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to shift into the northern inter mountain region by mid day, then into the northern Rockies by 18/00z, as an 80kt 500mb speed max rotates through the trough to near the ID/WY border. This is a very dynamic trough and latest model guidance suggests a surface low will be well identifiable over central WY by mid day. As the upper trough approaches the northern Plains late in the period, surface low should reposition itself downstream and track from the NE Panhandle into southeast ND by sunrise Tuesday. This evolution will encourage a warm front to advance north across the upper MS Valley during the latter half of the period, though warm-advection precipitation may slow its northward advance a bit. Early this morning, a notable uptick in warm-advection convection is observed across the central Plains from western NE into southeast SD. This activity should spread/develop northeast along/north of the warm front across southern MN into the upper Great Lakes region. Elevated convection may pose a risk for hail. While the primary concern for thunderstorms will be along the cool side of the boundary, strong heating south of the front will allow surface parcels to approach their convective temperatures. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH will be noted across southeast MN into central WI along the boundary. If thunderstorms can evolve, deep-layer shear may support supercell development. Have adjusted SLGT risk along the warm front to account for both elevated and potentially warm sector storms. Upstream across the High Plains, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the central High Plains of eastern CO into southwest NE. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s convective temperatures will be breached and isolated supercells should develop. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial SBCAPE (>3000 J/kg) and steep lapse rates, along with favorable shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Very large hail may accompany this activity. Some tornado threat will also be noted with these storms. Strong dynamic forcing will encourage convection to develop across the High Plains of northeast WY/southeast MT immediately ahead of the surging cold front. This activity will spread northeast ahead of the short wave into the Dakotas during the overnight hours. After sunset, marked increase in the LLJ is expected across the Plains from eastern NE into western MN. Severe threat will shift into the upper Red River Valley by the end of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the central and northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Central/Northern Plains-upper MS Valley... Strong upper trough is currently located over the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to shift into the northern inter mountain region by mid day, then into the northern Rockies by 18/00z, as an 80kt 500mb speed max rotates through the trough to near the ID/WY border. This is a very dynamic trough and latest model guidance suggests a surface low will be well identifiable over central WY by mid day. As the upper trough approaches the northern Plains late in the period, surface low should reposition itself downstream and track from the NE Panhandle into southeast ND by sunrise Tuesday. This evolution will encourage a warm front to advance north across the upper MS Valley during the latter half of the period, though warm-advection precipitation may slow its northward advance a bit. Early this morning, a notable uptick in warm-advection convection is observed across the central Plains from western NE into southeast SD. This activity should spread/develop northeast along/north of the warm front across southern MN into the upper Great Lakes region. Elevated convection may pose a risk for hail. While the primary concern for thunderstorms will be along the cool side of the boundary, strong heating south of the front will allow surface parcels to approach their convective temperatures. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH will be noted across southeast MN into central WI along the boundary. If thunderstorms can evolve, deep-layer shear may support supercell development. Have adjusted SLGT risk along the warm front to account for both elevated and potentially warm sector storms. Upstream across the High Plains, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the central High Plains of eastern CO into southwest NE. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s convective temperatures will be breached and isolated supercells should develop. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial SBCAPE (>3000 J/kg) and steep lapse rates, along with favorable shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Very large hail may accompany this activity. Some tornado threat will also be noted with these storms. Strong dynamic forcing will encourage convection to develop across the High Plains of northeast WY/southeast MT immediately ahead of the surging cold front. This activity will spread northeast ahead of the short wave into the Dakotas during the overnight hours. After sunset, marked increase in the LLJ is expected across the Plains from eastern NE into western MN. Severe threat will shift into the upper Red River Valley by the end of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/17/2024 Read more

WW 0426 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW IML TO 25 E AIA TO 35 W CDR. ..LEITMAN..06/17/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...FSD...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-015-017-031-045-051-075-089-091-101-103-117-149-161-171- 170640- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BOYD BROWN CHERRY DAWES DIXON GRANT HOLT HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA MCPHERSON ROCK SHERIDAN THOMAS SDC003-007-009-011-015-017-023-027-035-043-053-061-067-071-073- 075-079-083-085-087-095-097-099-101-102-111-121-123-125-135- 170640- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AURORA BENNETT BON HOMME BROOKINGS BRULE BUFFALO CHARLES MIX CLAY DAVISON DOUGLAS GREGORY HANSON HUTCHINSON JACKSON JERAULD Read more

MD 1295 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 425... FOR SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NE
Mesoscale Discussion 1295 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Areas affected...Southwest/central/northeast NE Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 425... Valid 170342Z - 170515Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 425 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated severe storm or two cannot be ruled out into the early overnight hours. DISCUSSION...An earlier prolific hail-producing supercell has weakened across southwest NE late this evening, while other storms from south-central into northeast NE have failed to mature thus far. Some potential remains for one of the lingering areas of convection to flare up over the next 1-2 hours, as a low-level jet continues to strengthen across the region. This may be most likely near/north of a surface front that will move slowly northward tonight. However, with the strongest ascent becoming focused farther north (into northern NE and southern SD), the window of opportunity for redevelopment closer to the surface front may be relatively limited. ..Dean.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 40600117 41809885 42459750 42579706 42469665 42039665 41689671 41269712 40239904 40479979 40440022 40470104 40600117 Read more

WW 0425 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 425 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW SUX TO 20 ESE IML. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1295 ..DEAN..06/17/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 425 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC027-107-170540- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CEDAR KNOX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0425 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 425 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW SUX TO 20 ESE IML. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1295 ..DEAN..06/17/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 425 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC027-107-170540- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CEDAR KNOX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0425 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 425 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW SUX TO 20 ESE IML. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1295 ..DEAN..06/17/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 425 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC027-107-170540- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CEDAR KNOX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0425 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 425 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW SUX TO 20 ESE IML. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1295 ..DEAN..06/17/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 425 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC027-107-170540- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CEDAR KNOX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0425 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 425 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW SUX TO 20 ESE IML. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1295 ..DEAN..06/17/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 425 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC027-107-170540- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CEDAR KNOX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 425 SEVERE TSTM NE 170125Z - 170700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 425 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 825 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest into Central and Northeast Nebraska * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 825 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated to possibly widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this evening into tonight along a frontal zone extending from southwest Nebraska northeastward into northeast Nebraska. The environment will support large to very large hail (1 to 3 inches in diameter) with any thunderstorm that is sustained and intense. Isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) may also accompany the stronger thunderstorm cores. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west northwest of Mccook NE to 30 miles northeast of Norfolk NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26015. ...Smith Read more

MD 1294 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL MICHIGAN INTO FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 1294 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Areas affected...south-central Michigan into far northern Indiana and Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 170308Z - 170415Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms will be capable of producing instances of strong to severe winds over the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms moving eastward across the far south-central Michigan have a history of producing damaging wind and a measured gust up to 76 mph near Kalamazoo, MI. This line of thunderstorms is moving into a drier and more stable airmass to the east, where dew points are in the mid to upper 50s with MLCAPE decreasing to <500 J/kg. As such, this line is expected to weaken in the next 1-2 hours, limiting the severe threat with eastward extent. New convection has developed to the south and west of this line, which also may pose a risk for occasional strong to severe wind before moving into the more stable air to the east. ..Thornton/Smith.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 41378553 41408644 42028627 42338574 43008494 42908411 42718398 42208384 41648394 41508501 41378553 Read more

MD 1293 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST CO...SOUTHEAST WY...NE PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWEST NE...SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1293 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0838 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Areas affected...Northeast CO...southeast WY...NE Panhandle into northwest NE...southwest/south-central SD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 170138Z - 170345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Strong to potentially severe storms are possible later this evening, with large hail and localized severe gusts expected to be the primary threats. DISCUSSION...High-based convection is gradually strengthening east of Denver. The short-term evolution of this convection is uncertain, but it moves northeastward into an increasingly unstable environment across northeast CO, some further intensification is possible. Deep-layer shear is sufficient to support some storm organization, and some threat for hail and localized severe gusts could evolve if ongoing convection is able to mature. Later this evening, an increasing low-level jet (which is already noted on the KGLD VWP) will support the northward advance of stronger elevated buoyancy and the potential for elevated storm development across the NE Panhandle vicinity into southwest/south-central SD. Very steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for organized convection, with a threat of large hail. The strongest storms within this regime could pose a conditional threat of very large hail, especially with any cells that are able to remain semi-discrete. Localized severe wind gusts will also be possible. Timing and the most favored corridor of the primary severe threat remain somewhat uncertain, but watch issuance will become increasingly probable across parts of the region by 9-10 PM MDT (10-11 PM CDT). ..Dean/Smith.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40610208 39960318 39930391 40040425 40490448 41060463 42500427 43180365 43430338 43960084 44009938 43569863 42299986 40610208 Read more

WW 0426 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 426 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..06/17/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...FSD...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-013-015-017-031-033-045-049-051-069-075-089-091-101-103- 105-117-123-149-161-171-170440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BOX BUTTE BOYD BROWN CHERRY CHEYENNE DAWES DEUEL DIXON GARDEN GRANT HOLT HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA KIMBALL MCPHERSON MORRILL ROCK SHERIDAN THOMAS SDC003-007-009-011-015-017-023-027-035-043-053-061-067-071-073- 075-079-083-085-087-095-097-099-101-102-111-121-123-125-135- 170440- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AURORA BENNETT BON HOMME BROOKINGS BRULE BUFFALO CHARLES MIX CLAY DAVISON DOUGLAS GREGORY HANSON Read more

WW 0426 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 426 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..06/17/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...FSD...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-013-015-017-031-033-045-049-051-069-075-089-091-101-103- 105-117-123-149-161-171-170440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BOX BUTTE BOYD BROWN CHERRY CHEYENNE DAWES DEUEL DIXON GARDEN GRANT HOLT HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA KIMBALL MCPHERSON MORRILL ROCK SHERIDAN THOMAS SDC003-007-009-011-015-017-023-027-035-043-053-061-067-071-073- 075-079-083-085-087-095-097-099-101-102-111-121-123-125-135- 170440- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AURORA BENNETT BON HOMME BROOKINGS BRULE BUFFALO CHARLES MIX CLAY DAVISON DOUGLAS GREGORY HANSON Read more

WW 0425 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 425 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..06/17/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 425 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC003-011-019-027-041-047-063-065-071-073-077-083-085-087-093- 099-107-119-125-137-139-141-145-163-167-175-179-183-170440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BOONE BUFFALO CEDAR CUSTER DAWSON FRONTIER FURNAS GARFIELD GOSPER GREELEY HARLAN HAYES HITCHCOCK HOWARD KEARNEY KNOX MADISON NANCE PHELPS PIERCE PLATTE RED WILLOW SHERMAN STANTON VALLEY WAYNE WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0425 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 425 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..06/17/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 425 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC003-011-019-027-041-047-063-065-071-073-077-083-085-087-093- 099-107-119-125-137-139-141-145-163-167-175-179-183-170440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BOONE BUFFALO CEDAR CUSTER DAWSON FRONTIER FURNAS GARFIELD GOSPER GREELEY HARLAN HAYES HITCHCOCK HOWARD KEARNEY KNOX MADISON NANCE PHELPS PIERCE PLATTE RED WILLOW SHERMAN STANTON VALLEY WAYNE WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0425 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 425 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..06/17/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 425 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC003-011-019-027-041-047-063-065-071-073-077-085-087-093-107- 119-125-137-139-141-145-163-167-175-179-183-170340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BOONE BUFFALO CEDAR CUSTER DAWSON FRONTIER FURNAS GARFIELD GOSPER GREELEY HAYES HITCHCOCK HOWARD KNOX MADISON NANCE PHELPS PIERCE PLATTE RED WILLOW SHERMAN STANTON VALLEY WAYNE WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0425 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0425 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase across the central High Plains this evening. Severe threat will spread downstream into the upper Mississippi Valley later tonight. Hail is the primary risk. ...01z Update... Broad upper troughing continues across the western US, especially north of the Great Basin. Weak height falls are forecast to spread across the central Rockies into the central Plains; however, water-vapor imagery does not depict any meaningful disturbances approaching this portion of the Plains early this evening. Even so, LLJ is expected to increase across the central High Plains over the next few hours, focusing from western KS into central NE. Nocturnal increase in the jet may be the primary instigator in convective development this evening. 00z sounding from LBF exhibited substantial MUCAPE (>3000 J/kg) if lifting a parcel near 750mb. Saturation has not yet materialized at this level and parcels remain a bit inhibited. However, moisture should advect atop the stalled surface boundary and elevated robust thunderstorms are expected to evolve. Given the steep lapse rates, hail is expected to generated with the stronger updrafts. Thunderstorms that develop along the nose of the LLJ should grow upscale in coverage then spread downstream, possibly in the form of one or more MCSs. ..Darrow.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase across the central High Plains this evening. Severe threat will spread downstream into the upper Mississippi Valley later tonight. Hail is the primary risk. ...01z Update... Broad upper troughing continues across the western US, especially north of the Great Basin. Weak height falls are forecast to spread across the central Rockies into the central Plains; however, water-vapor imagery does not depict any meaningful disturbances approaching this portion of the Plains early this evening. Even so, LLJ is expected to increase across the central High Plains over the next few hours, focusing from western KS into central NE. Nocturnal increase in the jet may be the primary instigator in convective development this evening. 00z sounding from LBF exhibited substantial MUCAPE (>3000 J/kg) if lifting a parcel near 750mb. Saturation has not yet materialized at this level and parcels remain a bit inhibited. However, moisture should advect atop the stalled surface boundary and elevated robust thunderstorms are expected to evolve. Given the steep lapse rates, hail is expected to generated with the stronger updrafts. Thunderstorms that develop along the nose of the LLJ should grow upscale in coverage then spread downstream, possibly in the form of one or more MCSs. ..Darrow.. 06/17/2024 Read more