Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms appear possible across parts of the upper Mississippi Valley late this afternoon, with additional storms likely tonight across the north-central Plains to upper Mississippi Valley. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. A small bowing complex, with mainly a severe/damaging wind threat, may also develop across parts of northern Illinois and vicinity this afternoon. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Upper Mississippi Valley... A strong upper trough/low will continue advancing east-northeastward across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces today. While the primary surface low is expected to remain in central Canada, a weak secondary low should develop generally eastward across MN through this evening in tandem with a cold front. Warm mid-level temperatures associated with a cap should tend to inhibit robust convective development for at least a few more hours into the early afternoon. But, most guidance now does show thunderstorm initiation occurring along the front in northern MN by 20-22Z. There are still concerns/uncertainty with how many intense thunderstorms will be able to form given fairly prevalent cloudiness that should temper daytime heating to some extent. Still, strong deep-layer shear and steepening mid-level lapse rates atop a gradually destabilizing low-level airmass should support a threat for supercells and large hail. Some guidance suggests a fairly quick progression to a MCS, which seems reasonable given the linear forcing of the cold front. If this occurs, then a severe/damaging wind threat may persist through the evening into parts of northern WI and the U.P. of MI. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to support low-level updraft rotation and a tornado or two across this region. A separate area of intense thunderstorm development is possible late this afternoon and early evening along the trailing portion of the cold front in NE/northwest KS and vicinity. If convection can initiate along this boundary, strong instability and modest deep-layer shear would support a threat for mainly multicells posing a risk for severe winds given the well mixed boundary layer forecast. Some hail could also occur with marginal supercell structures. The Slight Risk has been expanded southward across the central Plains to account for this scenario. Otherwise, scattered to numerous elevated thunderstorms are still expected to develop this evening and overnight generally north of the front from eastern WY into NE/SD and southern MN. A strengthening low-level jet in this time frame across these regions and ample deep-layer shear/MUCAPE will easily support supercells and a hail threat with initial development. But, convective mode may quickly become messy, with one or more bows/clusters possible as thunderstorms move eastward across the upper MS Valley overnight. Even though this activity should tend to remain elevated, an isolated severe/damaging wind threat may persist given the strong MUCAPE forecast. ...Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin... A well defined MCV remains evident on visible satellite and radar imagery late this morning over northeast MO and southern IA. This feature should continue to track northeastward this afternoon and evening in the modest southwesterly mid-level flow regime across the mid MS Valley/Midwest. Ample daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass should support around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across northern IL and vicinity. Ascent associated with the MCV and its associated mid-level vorticity maximum will likely encourage the development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms by 20-22Z. Modest but sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization is indicated in various RAP forecast soundings across this region. Scattered severe/damaging winds, along with isolated hail, could occur with a small bowing complex that may develop and move east-northeastward across the Chicago metro area late this afternoon and early evening. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to support a low chance for a tornado or two. Given recent guidance and observational trends, a small Slight Risk has been added across northern IL/southern WI to account for this scenario. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated/widely spaced thunderstorms should form once again this afternoon along the length of a surface lee trough/dryline extending southward across the southern High Plains. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain weak, moderate instability and a well-mixed boundary layer should support an isolated threat for severe downdraft winds. Occasional hail may also occur with the more robust cores before convection weakens after sunset. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms appear possible across parts of the upper Mississippi Valley late this afternoon, with additional storms likely tonight across the north-central Plains to upper Mississippi Valley. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. A small bowing complex, with mainly a severe/damaging wind threat, may also develop across parts of northern Illinois and vicinity this afternoon. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Upper Mississippi Valley... A strong upper trough/low will continue advancing east-northeastward across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces today. While the primary surface low is expected to remain in central Canada, a weak secondary low should develop generally eastward across MN through this evening in tandem with a cold front. Warm mid-level temperatures associated with a cap should tend to inhibit robust convective development for at least a few more hours into the early afternoon. But, most guidance now does show thunderstorm initiation occurring along the front in northern MN by 20-22Z. There are still concerns/uncertainty with how many intense thunderstorms will be able to form given fairly prevalent cloudiness that should temper daytime heating to some extent. Still, strong deep-layer shear and steepening mid-level lapse rates atop a gradually destabilizing low-level airmass should support a threat for supercells and large hail. Some guidance suggests a fairly quick progression to a MCS, which seems reasonable given the linear forcing of the cold front. If this occurs, then a severe/damaging wind threat may persist through the evening into parts of northern WI and the U.P. of MI. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to support low-level updraft rotation and a tornado or two across this region. A separate area of intense thunderstorm development is possible late this afternoon and early evening along the trailing portion of the cold front in NE/northwest KS and vicinity. If convection can initiate along this boundary, strong instability and modest deep-layer shear would support a threat for mainly multicells posing a risk for severe winds given the well mixed boundary layer forecast. Some hail could also occur with marginal supercell structures. The Slight Risk has been expanded southward across the central Plains to account for this scenario. Otherwise, scattered to numerous elevated thunderstorms are still expected to develop this evening and overnight generally north of the front from eastern WY into NE/SD and southern MN. A strengthening low-level jet in this time frame across these regions and ample deep-layer shear/MUCAPE will easily support supercells and a hail threat with initial development. But, convective mode may quickly become messy, with one or more bows/clusters possible as thunderstorms move eastward across the upper MS Valley overnight. Even though this activity should tend to remain elevated, an isolated severe/damaging wind threat may persist given the strong MUCAPE forecast. ...Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin... A well defined MCV remains evident on visible satellite and radar imagery late this morning over northeast MO and southern IA. This feature should continue to track northeastward this afternoon and evening in the modest southwesterly mid-level flow regime across the mid MS Valley/Midwest. Ample daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass should support around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across northern IL and vicinity. Ascent associated with the MCV and its associated mid-level vorticity maximum will likely encourage the development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms by 20-22Z. Modest but sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization is indicated in various RAP forecast soundings across this region. Scattered severe/damaging winds, along with isolated hail, could occur with a small bowing complex that may develop and move east-northeastward across the Chicago metro area late this afternoon and early evening. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to support a low chance for a tornado or two. Given recent guidance and observational trends, a small Slight Risk has been added across northern IL/southern WI to account for this scenario. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated/widely spaced thunderstorms should form once again this afternoon along the length of a surface lee trough/dryline extending southward across the southern High Plains. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain weak, moderate instability and a well-mixed boundary layer should support an isolated threat for severe downdraft winds. Occasional hail may also occur with the more robust cores before convection weakens after sunset. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms appear possible across parts of the upper Mississippi Valley late this afternoon, with additional storms likely tonight across the north-central Plains to upper Mississippi Valley. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. A small bowing complex, with mainly a severe/damaging wind threat, may also develop across parts of northern Illinois and vicinity this afternoon. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Upper Mississippi Valley... A strong upper trough/low will continue advancing east-northeastward across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces today. While the primary surface low is expected to remain in central Canada, a weak secondary low should develop generally eastward across MN through this evening in tandem with a cold front. Warm mid-level temperatures associated with a cap should tend to inhibit robust convective development for at least a few more hours into the early afternoon. But, most guidance now does show thunderstorm initiation occurring along the front in northern MN by 20-22Z. There are still concerns/uncertainty with how many intense thunderstorms will be able to form given fairly prevalent cloudiness that should temper daytime heating to some extent. Still, strong deep-layer shear and steepening mid-level lapse rates atop a gradually destabilizing low-level airmass should support a threat for supercells and large hail. Some guidance suggests a fairly quick progression to a MCS, which seems reasonable given the linear forcing of the cold front. If this occurs, then a severe/damaging wind threat may persist through the evening into parts of northern WI and the U.P. of MI. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to support low-level updraft rotation and a tornado or two across this region. A separate area of intense thunderstorm development is possible late this afternoon and early evening along the trailing portion of the cold front in NE/northwest KS and vicinity. If convection can initiate along this boundary, strong instability and modest deep-layer shear would support a threat for mainly multicells posing a risk for severe winds given the well mixed boundary layer forecast. Some hail could also occur with marginal supercell structures. The Slight Risk has been expanded southward across the central Plains to account for this scenario. Otherwise, scattered to numerous elevated thunderstorms are still expected to develop this evening and overnight generally north of the front from eastern WY into NE/SD and southern MN. A strengthening low-level jet in this time frame across these regions and ample deep-layer shear/MUCAPE will easily support supercells and a hail threat with initial development. But, convective mode may quickly become messy, with one or more bows/clusters possible as thunderstorms move eastward across the upper MS Valley overnight. Even though this activity should tend to remain elevated, an isolated severe/damaging wind threat may persist given the strong MUCAPE forecast. ...Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin... A well defined MCV remains evident on visible satellite and radar imagery late this morning over northeast MO and southern IA. This feature should continue to track northeastward this afternoon and evening in the modest southwesterly mid-level flow regime across the mid MS Valley/Midwest. Ample daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass should support around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across northern IL and vicinity. Ascent associated with the MCV and its associated mid-level vorticity maximum will likely encourage the development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms by 20-22Z. Modest but sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization is indicated in various RAP forecast soundings across this region. Scattered severe/damaging winds, along with isolated hail, could occur with a small bowing complex that may develop and move east-northeastward across the Chicago metro area late this afternoon and early evening. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to support a low chance for a tornado or two. Given recent guidance and observational trends, a small Slight Risk has been added across northern IL/southern WI to account for this scenario. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated/widely spaced thunderstorms should form once again this afternoon along the length of a surface lee trough/dryline extending southward across the southern High Plains. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain weak, moderate instability and a well-mixed boundary layer should support an isolated threat for severe downdraft winds. Occasional hail may also occur with the more robust cores before convection weakens after sunset. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms appear possible across parts of the upper Mississippi Valley late this afternoon, with additional storms likely tonight across the north-central Plains to upper Mississippi Valley. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. A small bowing complex, with mainly a severe/damaging wind threat, may also develop across parts of northern Illinois and vicinity this afternoon. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Upper Mississippi Valley... A strong upper trough/low will continue advancing east-northeastward across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces today. While the primary surface low is expected to remain in central Canada, a weak secondary low should develop generally eastward across MN through this evening in tandem with a cold front. Warm mid-level temperatures associated with a cap should tend to inhibit robust convective development for at least a few more hours into the early afternoon. But, most guidance now does show thunderstorm initiation occurring along the front in northern MN by 20-22Z. There are still concerns/uncertainty with how many intense thunderstorms will be able to form given fairly prevalent cloudiness that should temper daytime heating to some extent. Still, strong deep-layer shear and steepening mid-level lapse rates atop a gradually destabilizing low-level airmass should support a threat for supercells and large hail. Some guidance suggests a fairly quick progression to a MCS, which seems reasonable given the linear forcing of the cold front. If this occurs, then a severe/damaging wind threat may persist through the evening into parts of northern WI and the U.P. of MI. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to support low-level updraft rotation and a tornado or two across this region. A separate area of intense thunderstorm development is possible late this afternoon and early evening along the trailing portion of the cold front in NE/northwest KS and vicinity. If convection can initiate along this boundary, strong instability and modest deep-layer shear would support a threat for mainly multicells posing a risk for severe winds given the well mixed boundary layer forecast. Some hail could also occur with marginal supercell structures. The Slight Risk has been expanded southward across the central Plains to account for this scenario. Otherwise, scattered to numerous elevated thunderstorms are still expected to develop this evening and overnight generally north of the front from eastern WY into NE/SD and southern MN. A strengthening low-level jet in this time frame across these regions and ample deep-layer shear/MUCAPE will easily support supercells and a hail threat with initial development. But, convective mode may quickly become messy, with one or more bows/clusters possible as thunderstorms move eastward across the upper MS Valley overnight. Even though this activity should tend to remain elevated, an isolated severe/damaging wind threat may persist given the strong MUCAPE forecast. ...Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin... A well defined MCV remains evident on visible satellite and radar imagery late this morning over northeast MO and southern IA. This feature should continue to track northeastward this afternoon and evening in the modest southwesterly mid-level flow regime across the mid MS Valley/Midwest. Ample daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass should support around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across northern IL and vicinity. Ascent associated with the MCV and its associated mid-level vorticity maximum will likely encourage the development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms by 20-22Z. Modest but sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization is indicated in various RAP forecast soundings across this region. Scattered severe/damaging winds, along with isolated hail, could occur with a small bowing complex that may develop and move east-northeastward across the Chicago metro area late this afternoon and early evening. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to support a low chance for a tornado or two. Given recent guidance and observational trends, a small Slight Risk has been added across northern IL/southern WI to account for this scenario. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated/widely spaced thunderstorms should form once again this afternoon along the length of a surface lee trough/dryline extending southward across the southern High Plains. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain weak, moderate instability and a well-mixed boundary layer should support an isolated threat for severe downdraft winds. Occasional hail may also occur with the more robust cores before convection weakens after sunset. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms appear possible across parts of the upper Mississippi Valley late this afternoon, with additional storms likely tonight across the north-central Plains to upper Mississippi Valley. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. A small bowing complex, with mainly a severe/damaging wind threat, may also develop across parts of northern Illinois and vicinity this afternoon. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Upper Mississippi Valley... A strong upper trough/low will continue advancing east-northeastward across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces today. While the primary surface low is expected to remain in central Canada, a weak secondary low should develop generally eastward across MN through this evening in tandem with a cold front. Warm mid-level temperatures associated with a cap should tend to inhibit robust convective development for at least a few more hours into the early afternoon. But, most guidance now does show thunderstorm initiation occurring along the front in northern MN by 20-22Z. There are still concerns/uncertainty with how many intense thunderstorms will be able to form given fairly prevalent cloudiness that should temper daytime heating to some extent. Still, strong deep-layer shear and steepening mid-level lapse rates atop a gradually destabilizing low-level airmass should support a threat for supercells and large hail. Some guidance suggests a fairly quick progression to a MCS, which seems reasonable given the linear forcing of the cold front. If this occurs, then a severe/damaging wind threat may persist through the evening into parts of northern WI and the U.P. of MI. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to support low-level updraft rotation and a tornado or two across this region. A separate area of intense thunderstorm development is possible late this afternoon and early evening along the trailing portion of the cold front in NE/northwest KS and vicinity. If convection can initiate along this boundary, strong instability and modest deep-layer shear would support a threat for mainly multicells posing a risk for severe winds given the well mixed boundary layer forecast. Some hail could also occur with marginal supercell structures. The Slight Risk has been expanded southward across the central Plains to account for this scenario. Otherwise, scattered to numerous elevated thunderstorms are still expected to develop this evening and overnight generally north of the front from eastern WY into NE/SD and southern MN. A strengthening low-level jet in this time frame across these regions and ample deep-layer shear/MUCAPE will easily support supercells and a hail threat with initial development. But, convective mode may quickly become messy, with one or more bows/clusters possible as thunderstorms move eastward across the upper MS Valley overnight. Even though this activity should tend to remain elevated, an isolated severe/damaging wind threat may persist given the strong MUCAPE forecast. ...Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin... A well defined MCV remains evident on visible satellite and radar imagery late this morning over northeast MO and southern IA. This feature should continue to track northeastward this afternoon and evening in the modest southwesterly mid-level flow regime across the mid MS Valley/Midwest. Ample daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass should support around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across northern IL and vicinity. Ascent associated with the MCV and its associated mid-level vorticity maximum will likely encourage the development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms by 20-22Z. Modest but sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization is indicated in various RAP forecast soundings across this region. Scattered severe/damaging winds, along with isolated hail, could occur with a small bowing complex that may develop and move east-northeastward across the Chicago metro area late this afternoon and early evening. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to support a low chance for a tornado or two. Given recent guidance and observational trends, a small Slight Risk has been added across northern IL/southern WI to account for this scenario. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated/widely spaced thunderstorms should form once again this afternoon along the length of a surface lee trough/dryline extending southward across the southern High Plains. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain weak, moderate instability and a well-mixed boundary layer should support an isolated threat for severe downdraft winds. Occasional hail may also occur with the more robust cores before convection weakens after sunset. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the Upper Mississippi Valley late this afternoon, with additional storms tonight across the north-central Plains to upper Mississippi Valley, with large hail the primary risk. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Great Lakes... Multiple convectively enhanced disturbances/MCVs are noted regionally including across Wisconsin and northern Missouri, embedded with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies aloft located over the Dakotas and Canadian Prairies. Shortwave ridging will generally be noted over the Upper Midwest/upper Mississippi Valley vicinity today, with strong warm-sector ample destabilization in the wake of early day cloud cover and lingering convection. At least isolated/widely scattered late-day thunderstorm redevelopment is plausible, most likely near a surface low/triple point across northern Wisconsin into Upper Michigan, and potentially along the southwestward-extending cold front along the Minnesota/Iowa border vicinity. Large hail and damaging winds are possible. A few severe storms are also possible farther south into areas such as northern Illinois, potentially influenced by an upstream MCV/prior outflow. A greater coverage of potentially severe storms is expected into the evening and beyond, as the low-level jet refocuses and intensifies across the central Plains after sunset. A strong signal for robust elevated convection exists across portions of Nebraska/South Dakota tonight, and this activity should spread northeastward through the overnight hours. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE (in excess of 2000 J/kg), with large hail as the primary concern with the elevated convection. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the Upper Mississippi Valley late this afternoon, with additional storms tonight across the north-central Plains to upper Mississippi Valley, with large hail the primary risk. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Great Lakes... Multiple convectively enhanced disturbances/MCVs are noted regionally including across Wisconsin and northern Missouri, embedded with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies aloft located over the Dakotas and Canadian Prairies. Shortwave ridging will generally be noted over the Upper Midwest/upper Mississippi Valley vicinity today, with strong warm-sector ample destabilization in the wake of early day cloud cover and lingering convection. At least isolated/widely scattered late-day thunderstorm redevelopment is plausible, most likely near a surface low/triple point across northern Wisconsin into Upper Michigan, and potentially along the southwestward-extending cold front along the Minnesota/Iowa border vicinity. Large hail and damaging winds are possible. A few severe storms are also possible farther south into areas such as northern Illinois, potentially influenced by an upstream MCV/prior outflow. A greater coverage of potentially severe storms is expected into the evening and beyond, as the low-level jet refocuses and intensifies across the central Plains after sunset. A strong signal for robust elevated convection exists across portions of Nebraska/South Dakota tonight, and this activity should spread northeastward through the overnight hours. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE (in excess of 2000 J/kg), with large hail as the primary concern with the elevated convection. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the Upper Mississippi Valley late this afternoon, with additional storms tonight across the north-central Plains to upper Mississippi Valley, with large hail the primary risk. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Great Lakes... Multiple convectively enhanced disturbances/MCVs are noted regionally including across Wisconsin and northern Missouri, embedded with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies aloft located over the Dakotas and Canadian Prairies. Shortwave ridging will generally be noted over the Upper Midwest/upper Mississippi Valley vicinity today, with strong warm-sector ample destabilization in the wake of early day cloud cover and lingering convection. At least isolated/widely scattered late-day thunderstorm redevelopment is plausible, most likely near a surface low/triple point across northern Wisconsin into Upper Michigan, and potentially along the southwestward-extending cold front along the Minnesota/Iowa border vicinity. Large hail and damaging winds are possible. A few severe storms are also possible farther south into areas such as northern Illinois, potentially influenced by an upstream MCV/prior outflow. A greater coverage of potentially severe storms is expected into the evening and beyond, as the low-level jet refocuses and intensifies across the central Plains after sunset. A strong signal for robust elevated convection exists across portions of Nebraska/South Dakota tonight, and this activity should spread northeastward through the overnight hours. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE (in excess of 2000 J/kg), with large hail as the primary concern with the elevated convection. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the Upper Mississippi Valley late this afternoon, with additional storms tonight across the north-central Plains to upper Mississippi Valley, with large hail the primary risk. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Great Lakes... Multiple convectively enhanced disturbances/MCVs are noted regionally including across Wisconsin and northern Missouri, embedded with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies aloft located over the Dakotas and Canadian Prairies. Shortwave ridging will generally be noted over the Upper Midwest/upper Mississippi Valley vicinity today, with strong warm-sector ample destabilization in the wake of early day cloud cover and lingering convection. At least isolated/widely scattered late-day thunderstorm redevelopment is plausible, most likely near a surface low/triple point across northern Wisconsin into Upper Michigan, and potentially along the southwestward-extending cold front along the Minnesota/Iowa border vicinity. Large hail and damaging winds are possible. A few severe storms are also possible farther south into areas such as northern Illinois, potentially influenced by an upstream MCV/prior outflow. A greater coverage of potentially severe storms is expected into the evening and beyond, as the low-level jet refocuses and intensifies across the central Plains after sunset. A strong signal for robust elevated convection exists across portions of Nebraska/South Dakota tonight, and this activity should spread northeastward through the overnight hours. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE (in excess of 2000 J/kg), with large hail as the primary concern with the elevated convection. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the Upper Mississippi Valley late this afternoon, with additional storms tonight across the north-central Plains to upper Mississippi Valley, with large hail the primary risk. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Great Lakes... Multiple convectively enhanced disturbances/MCVs are noted regionally including across Wisconsin and northern Missouri, embedded with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies aloft located over the Dakotas and Canadian Prairies. Shortwave ridging will generally be noted over the Upper Midwest/upper Mississippi Valley vicinity today, with strong warm-sector ample destabilization in the wake of early day cloud cover and lingering convection. At least isolated/widely scattered late-day thunderstorm redevelopment is plausible, most likely near a surface low/triple point across northern Wisconsin into Upper Michigan, and potentially along the southwestward-extending cold front along the Minnesota/Iowa border vicinity. Large hail and damaging winds are possible. A few severe storms are also possible farther south into areas such as northern Illinois, potentially influenced by an upstream MCV/prior outflow. A greater coverage of potentially severe storms is expected into the evening and beyond, as the low-level jet refocuses and intensifies across the central Plains after sunset. A strong signal for robust elevated convection exists across portions of Nebraska/South Dakota tonight, and this activity should spread northeastward through the overnight hours. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE (in excess of 2000 J/kg), with large hail as the primary concern with the elevated convection. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the Upper Mississippi Valley late this afternoon, with additional storms tonight across the north-central Plains to upper Mississippi Valley, with large hail the primary risk. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Great Lakes... Multiple convectively enhanced disturbances/MCVs are noted regionally including across Wisconsin and northern Missouri, embedded with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies aloft located over the Dakotas and Canadian Prairies. Shortwave ridging will generally be noted over the Upper Midwest/upper Mississippi Valley vicinity today, with strong warm-sector ample destabilization in the wake of early day cloud cover and lingering convection. At least isolated/widely scattered late-day thunderstorm redevelopment is plausible, most likely near a surface low/triple point across northern Wisconsin into Upper Michigan, and potentially along the southwestward-extending cold front along the Minnesota/Iowa border vicinity. Large hail and damaging winds are possible. A few severe storms are also possible farther south into areas such as northern Illinois, potentially influenced by an upstream MCV/prior outflow. A greater coverage of potentially severe storms is expected into the evening and beyond, as the low-level jet refocuses and intensifies across the central Plains after sunset. A strong signal for robust elevated convection exists across portions of Nebraska/South Dakota tonight, and this activity should spread northeastward through the overnight hours. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE (in excess of 2000 J/kg), with large hail as the primary concern with the elevated convection. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/16/2024 Read more

WW 0423 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 423 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE JMS TO 30 ENE DVL TO 30 NNW HCO. ..LEITMAN..06/16/24 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 423 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC063-067-099-161040- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NELSON PEMBINA WALSH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0423 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 423 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE JMS TO 30 ENE DVL TO 30 NNW HCO. ..LEITMAN..06/16/24 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 423 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC063-067-099-161040- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NELSON PEMBINA WALSH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 423 SEVERE TSTM ND 160500Z - 161100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 423 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern and Northeast North Dakota * Effective this Sunday morning from Midnight until 600 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A severe squall line will likely continue east across northern and into northeast North Dakota tonight. Severe gusts (60-80 mph) will be the primary risk with the stronger surges and embedded bowing segments within the thunderstorm band. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west of Devils Lake ND to 25 miles north of Grand Forks ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 421...WW 422... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26045. ...Smith Read more

MD 1288 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 423... FOR NORTHEAST ND INTO FAR NORTHWEST MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1288 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Areas affected...northeast ND into far northwest MN Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 423... Valid 160757Z - 160930Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 423 continues. SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms will continue shifting east through early morning. DISCUSSION...A line of storms will continue tracking east near 40 mph the next couple of hours, taking convection across northeast ND into far northwest MN. Measured gusts the past hour or so have typically been less than 50 kt. A southerly 850 mb low-level jet around 25-30 kt ahead of convection, coupled with sufficient instability and deep-layer shear, will maintain organized convection for at least another couple of hours. Instability rapidly wanes with eastward extent into MN as low-level moisture decreases, and storms should weaken as they enter northwest MN. Locally strong/isolated severe gusts of 45-60 mph will remain possible in the short term across northeast ND. A downstream watch and/or aerial watch extension is not expected. ..Leitman.. 06/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 49099846 49049645 48569627 48089675 47789759 47589878 47679972 47989998 48679951 49079933 49099846 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Wednesday/D4 into Thursday/D5, an upper trough will move from Manitoba toward Hudson Bay, with the base of the trough shifting out of ND/MN. This wave will continue east/northeast into Quebec, flattening the ridge over the northeastern states. Meanwhile, upper troughing will exist over the Great Basin, with moderately cool temperatures aloft. Scattered storms will be likely along the trailing front from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes, with perhaps a marginal severe risk given weaker shear and instability. Models indicate this western trough may emerge into the northern Plains Friday/D6 into Saturday/D7, providing perhaps 40 kt midlevel westerly winds and modest cooling aloft. Such a system may support areas of strong storms, but overall the threat does not appear particularly high. However, pockets of stronger instability could support scattered hail and wind. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Wednesday/D4 into Thursday/D5, an upper trough will move from Manitoba toward Hudson Bay, with the base of the trough shifting out of ND/MN. This wave will continue east/northeast into Quebec, flattening the ridge over the northeastern states. Meanwhile, upper troughing will exist over the Great Basin, with moderately cool temperatures aloft. Scattered storms will be likely along the trailing front from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes, with perhaps a marginal severe risk given weaker shear and instability. Models indicate this western trough may emerge into the northern Plains Friday/D6 into Saturday/D7, providing perhaps 40 kt midlevel westerly winds and modest cooling aloft. Such a system may support areas of strong storms, but overall the threat does not appear particularly high. However, pockets of stronger instability could support scattered hail and wind. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Wednesday/D4 into Thursday/D5, an upper trough will move from Manitoba toward Hudson Bay, with the base of the trough shifting out of ND/MN. This wave will continue east/northeast into Quebec, flattening the ridge over the northeastern states. Meanwhile, upper troughing will exist over the Great Basin, with moderately cool temperatures aloft. Scattered storms will be likely along the trailing front from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes, with perhaps a marginal severe risk given weaker shear and instability. Models indicate this western trough may emerge into the northern Plains Friday/D6 into Saturday/D7, providing perhaps 40 kt midlevel westerly winds and modest cooling aloft. Such a system may support areas of strong storms, but overall the threat does not appear particularly high. However, pockets of stronger instability could support scattered hail and wind. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Wednesday/D4 into Thursday/D5, an upper trough will move from Manitoba toward Hudson Bay, with the base of the trough shifting out of ND/MN. This wave will continue east/northeast into Quebec, flattening the ridge over the northeastern states. Meanwhile, upper troughing will exist over the Great Basin, with moderately cool temperatures aloft. Scattered storms will be likely along the trailing front from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes, with perhaps a marginal severe risk given weaker shear and instability. Models indicate this western trough may emerge into the northern Plains Friday/D6 into Saturday/D7, providing perhaps 40 kt midlevel westerly winds and modest cooling aloft. Such a system may support areas of strong storms, but overall the threat does not appear particularly high. However, pockets of stronger instability could support scattered hail and wind. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Wednesday/D4 into Thursday/D5, an upper trough will move from Manitoba toward Hudson Bay, with the base of the trough shifting out of ND/MN. This wave will continue east/northeast into Quebec, flattening the ridge over the northeastern states. Meanwhile, upper troughing will exist over the Great Basin, with moderately cool temperatures aloft. Scattered storms will be likely along the trailing front from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes, with perhaps a marginal severe risk given weaker shear and instability. Models indicate this western trough may emerge into the northern Plains Friday/D6 into Saturday/D7, providing perhaps 40 kt midlevel westerly winds and modest cooling aloft. Such a system may support areas of strong storms, but overall the threat does not appear particularly high. However, pockets of stronger instability could support scattered hail and wind. Read more