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1 year 2 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Valid 161630Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms appear possible across parts of the upper
Mississippi Valley late this afternoon, with additional storms
likely tonight across the north-central Plains to upper Mississippi
Valley. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. A small
bowing complex, with mainly a severe/damaging wind threat, may also
develop across parts of northern Illinois and vicinity this
afternoon.
...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Upper Mississippi
Valley...
A strong upper trough/low will continue advancing east-northeastward
across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces today.
While the primary surface low is expected to remain in central
Canada, a weak secondary low should develop generally eastward
across MN through this evening in tandem with a cold front. Warm
mid-level temperatures associated with a cap should tend to inhibit
robust convective development for at least a few more hours into the
early afternoon. But, most guidance now does show thunderstorm
initiation occurring along the front in northern MN by 20-22Z. There
are still concerns/uncertainty with how many intense thunderstorms
will be able to form given fairly prevalent cloudiness that should
temper daytime heating to some extent. Still, strong deep-layer
shear and steepening mid-level lapse rates atop a gradually
destabilizing low-level airmass should support a threat for
supercells and large hail. Some guidance suggests a fairly quick
progression to a MCS, which seems reasonable given the linear
forcing of the cold front. If this occurs, then a severe/damaging
wind threat may persist through the evening into parts of northern
WI and the U.P. of MI. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to
support low-level updraft rotation and a tornado or two across this
region.
A separate area of intense thunderstorm development is possible late
this afternoon and early evening along the trailing portion of the
cold front in NE/northwest KS and vicinity. If convection can
initiate along this boundary, strong instability and modest
deep-layer shear would support a threat for mainly multicells posing
a risk for severe winds given the well mixed boundary layer
forecast. Some hail could also occur with marginal supercell
structures. The Slight Risk has been expanded southward across the
central Plains to account for this scenario. Otherwise, scattered to
numerous elevated thunderstorms are still expected to develop this
evening and overnight generally north of the front from eastern WY
into NE/SD and southern MN. A strengthening low-level jet in this
time frame across these regions and ample deep-layer shear/MUCAPE
will easily support supercells and a hail threat with initial
development. But, convective mode may quickly become messy, with one
or more bows/clusters possible as thunderstorms move eastward across
the upper MS Valley overnight. Even though this activity should tend
to remain elevated, an isolated severe/damaging wind threat may
persist given the strong MUCAPE forecast.
...Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin...
A well defined MCV remains evident on visible satellite and radar
imagery late this morning over northeast MO and southern IA. This
feature should continue to track northeastward this afternoon and
evening in the modest southwesterly mid-level flow regime across the
mid MS Valley/Midwest. Ample daytime heating of a moist low-level
airmass should support around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid
afternoon across northern IL and vicinity. Ascent associated with
the MCV and its associated mid-level vorticity maximum will likely
encourage the development of isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms by 20-22Z. Modest but sufficient deep-layer shear for
updraft organization is indicated in various RAP forecast soundings
across this region. Scattered severe/damaging winds, along with
isolated hail, could occur with a small bowing complex that may
develop and move east-northeastward across the Chicago metro area
late this afternoon and early evening. Enough low-level shear is
also forecast to support a low chance for a tornado or two. Given
recent guidance and observational trends, a small Slight Risk has
been added across northern IL/southern WI to account for this
scenario.
...Southern High Plains...
Isolated/widely spaced thunderstorms should form once again this
afternoon along the length of a surface lee trough/dryline extending
southward across the southern High Plains. Although deep-layer shear
is forecast to remain weak, moderate instability and a well-mixed
boundary layer should support an isolated threat for severe
downdraft winds. Occasional hail may also occur with the more robust
cores before convection weakens after sunset.
..Gleason/Bentley.. 06/16/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Valid 161630Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms appear possible across parts of the upper
Mississippi Valley late this afternoon, with additional storms
likely tonight across the north-central Plains to upper Mississippi
Valley. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. A small
bowing complex, with mainly a severe/damaging wind threat, may also
develop across parts of northern Illinois and vicinity this
afternoon.
...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Upper Mississippi
Valley...
A strong upper trough/low will continue advancing east-northeastward
across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces today.
While the primary surface low is expected to remain in central
Canada, a weak secondary low should develop generally eastward
across MN through this evening in tandem with a cold front. Warm
mid-level temperatures associated with a cap should tend to inhibit
robust convective development for at least a few more hours into the
early afternoon. But, most guidance now does show thunderstorm
initiation occurring along the front in northern MN by 20-22Z. There
are still concerns/uncertainty with how many intense thunderstorms
will be able to form given fairly prevalent cloudiness that should
temper daytime heating to some extent. Still, strong deep-layer
shear and steepening mid-level lapse rates atop a gradually
destabilizing low-level airmass should support a threat for
supercells and large hail. Some guidance suggests a fairly quick
progression to a MCS, which seems reasonable given the linear
forcing of the cold front. If this occurs, then a severe/damaging
wind threat may persist through the evening into parts of northern
WI and the U.P. of MI. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to
support low-level updraft rotation and a tornado or two across this
region.
A separate area of intense thunderstorm development is possible late
this afternoon and early evening along the trailing portion of the
cold front in NE/northwest KS and vicinity. If convection can
initiate along this boundary, strong instability and modest
deep-layer shear would support a threat for mainly multicells posing
a risk for severe winds given the well mixed boundary layer
forecast. Some hail could also occur with marginal supercell
structures. The Slight Risk has been expanded southward across the
central Plains to account for this scenario. Otherwise, scattered to
numerous elevated thunderstorms are still expected to develop this
evening and overnight generally north of the front from eastern WY
into NE/SD and southern MN. A strengthening low-level jet in this
time frame across these regions and ample deep-layer shear/MUCAPE
will easily support supercells and a hail threat with initial
development. But, convective mode may quickly become messy, with one
or more bows/clusters possible as thunderstorms move eastward across
the upper MS Valley overnight. Even though this activity should tend
to remain elevated, an isolated severe/damaging wind threat may
persist given the strong MUCAPE forecast.
...Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin...
A well defined MCV remains evident on visible satellite and radar
imagery late this morning over northeast MO and southern IA. This
feature should continue to track northeastward this afternoon and
evening in the modest southwesterly mid-level flow regime across the
mid MS Valley/Midwest. Ample daytime heating of a moist low-level
airmass should support around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid
afternoon across northern IL and vicinity. Ascent associated with
the MCV and its associated mid-level vorticity maximum will likely
encourage the development of isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms by 20-22Z. Modest but sufficient deep-layer shear for
updraft organization is indicated in various RAP forecast soundings
across this region. Scattered severe/damaging winds, along with
isolated hail, could occur with a small bowing complex that may
develop and move east-northeastward across the Chicago metro area
late this afternoon and early evening. Enough low-level shear is
also forecast to support a low chance for a tornado or two. Given
recent guidance and observational trends, a small Slight Risk has
been added across northern IL/southern WI to account for this
scenario.
...Southern High Plains...
Isolated/widely spaced thunderstorms should form once again this
afternoon along the length of a surface lee trough/dryline extending
southward across the southern High Plains. Although deep-layer shear
is forecast to remain weak, moderate instability and a well-mixed
boundary layer should support an isolated threat for severe
downdraft winds. Occasional hail may also occur with the more robust
cores before convection weakens after sunset.
..Gleason/Bentley.. 06/16/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Valid 161630Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms appear possible across parts of the upper
Mississippi Valley late this afternoon, with additional storms
likely tonight across the north-central Plains to upper Mississippi
Valley. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. A small
bowing complex, with mainly a severe/damaging wind threat, may also
develop across parts of northern Illinois and vicinity this
afternoon.
...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Upper Mississippi
Valley...
A strong upper trough/low will continue advancing east-northeastward
across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces today.
While the primary surface low is expected to remain in central
Canada, a weak secondary low should develop generally eastward
across MN through this evening in tandem with a cold front. Warm
mid-level temperatures associated with a cap should tend to inhibit
robust convective development for at least a few more hours into the
early afternoon. But, most guidance now does show thunderstorm
initiation occurring along the front in northern MN by 20-22Z. There
are still concerns/uncertainty with how many intense thunderstorms
will be able to form given fairly prevalent cloudiness that should
temper daytime heating to some extent. Still, strong deep-layer
shear and steepening mid-level lapse rates atop a gradually
destabilizing low-level airmass should support a threat for
supercells and large hail. Some guidance suggests a fairly quick
progression to a MCS, which seems reasonable given the linear
forcing of the cold front. If this occurs, then a severe/damaging
wind threat may persist through the evening into parts of northern
WI and the U.P. of MI. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to
support low-level updraft rotation and a tornado or two across this
region.
A separate area of intense thunderstorm development is possible late
this afternoon and early evening along the trailing portion of the
cold front in NE/northwest KS and vicinity. If convection can
initiate along this boundary, strong instability and modest
deep-layer shear would support a threat for mainly multicells posing
a risk for severe winds given the well mixed boundary layer
forecast. Some hail could also occur with marginal supercell
structures. The Slight Risk has been expanded southward across the
central Plains to account for this scenario. Otherwise, scattered to
numerous elevated thunderstorms are still expected to develop this
evening and overnight generally north of the front from eastern WY
into NE/SD and southern MN. A strengthening low-level jet in this
time frame across these regions and ample deep-layer shear/MUCAPE
will easily support supercells and a hail threat with initial
development. But, convective mode may quickly become messy, with one
or more bows/clusters possible as thunderstorms move eastward across
the upper MS Valley overnight. Even though this activity should tend
to remain elevated, an isolated severe/damaging wind threat may
persist given the strong MUCAPE forecast.
...Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin...
A well defined MCV remains evident on visible satellite and radar
imagery late this morning over northeast MO and southern IA. This
feature should continue to track northeastward this afternoon and
evening in the modest southwesterly mid-level flow regime across the
mid MS Valley/Midwest. Ample daytime heating of a moist low-level
airmass should support around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid
afternoon across northern IL and vicinity. Ascent associated with
the MCV and its associated mid-level vorticity maximum will likely
encourage the development of isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms by 20-22Z. Modest but sufficient deep-layer shear for
updraft organization is indicated in various RAP forecast soundings
across this region. Scattered severe/damaging winds, along with
isolated hail, could occur with a small bowing complex that may
develop and move east-northeastward across the Chicago metro area
late this afternoon and early evening. Enough low-level shear is
also forecast to support a low chance for a tornado or two. Given
recent guidance and observational trends, a small Slight Risk has
been added across northern IL/southern WI to account for this
scenario.
...Southern High Plains...
Isolated/widely spaced thunderstorms should form once again this
afternoon along the length of a surface lee trough/dryline extending
southward across the southern High Plains. Although deep-layer shear
is forecast to remain weak, moderate instability and a well-mixed
boundary layer should support an isolated threat for severe
downdraft winds. Occasional hail may also occur with the more robust
cores before convection weakens after sunset.
..Gleason/Bentley.. 06/16/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Valid 161630Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms appear possible across parts of the upper
Mississippi Valley late this afternoon, with additional storms
likely tonight across the north-central Plains to upper Mississippi
Valley. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. A small
bowing complex, with mainly a severe/damaging wind threat, may also
develop across parts of northern Illinois and vicinity this
afternoon.
...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Upper Mississippi
Valley...
A strong upper trough/low will continue advancing east-northeastward
across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces today.
While the primary surface low is expected to remain in central
Canada, a weak secondary low should develop generally eastward
across MN through this evening in tandem with a cold front. Warm
mid-level temperatures associated with a cap should tend to inhibit
robust convective development for at least a few more hours into the
early afternoon. But, most guidance now does show thunderstorm
initiation occurring along the front in northern MN by 20-22Z. There
are still concerns/uncertainty with how many intense thunderstorms
will be able to form given fairly prevalent cloudiness that should
temper daytime heating to some extent. Still, strong deep-layer
shear and steepening mid-level lapse rates atop a gradually
destabilizing low-level airmass should support a threat for
supercells and large hail. Some guidance suggests a fairly quick
progression to a MCS, which seems reasonable given the linear
forcing of the cold front. If this occurs, then a severe/damaging
wind threat may persist through the evening into parts of northern
WI and the U.P. of MI. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to
support low-level updraft rotation and a tornado or two across this
region.
A separate area of intense thunderstorm development is possible late
this afternoon and early evening along the trailing portion of the
cold front in NE/northwest KS and vicinity. If convection can
initiate along this boundary, strong instability and modest
deep-layer shear would support a threat for mainly multicells posing
a risk for severe winds given the well mixed boundary layer
forecast. Some hail could also occur with marginal supercell
structures. The Slight Risk has been expanded southward across the
central Plains to account for this scenario. Otherwise, scattered to
numerous elevated thunderstorms are still expected to develop this
evening and overnight generally north of the front from eastern WY
into NE/SD and southern MN. A strengthening low-level jet in this
time frame across these regions and ample deep-layer shear/MUCAPE
will easily support supercells and a hail threat with initial
development. But, convective mode may quickly become messy, with one
or more bows/clusters possible as thunderstorms move eastward across
the upper MS Valley overnight. Even though this activity should tend
to remain elevated, an isolated severe/damaging wind threat may
persist given the strong MUCAPE forecast.
...Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin...
A well defined MCV remains evident on visible satellite and radar
imagery late this morning over northeast MO and southern IA. This
feature should continue to track northeastward this afternoon and
evening in the modest southwesterly mid-level flow regime across the
mid MS Valley/Midwest. Ample daytime heating of a moist low-level
airmass should support around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid
afternoon across northern IL and vicinity. Ascent associated with
the MCV and its associated mid-level vorticity maximum will likely
encourage the development of isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms by 20-22Z. Modest but sufficient deep-layer shear for
updraft organization is indicated in various RAP forecast soundings
across this region. Scattered severe/damaging winds, along with
isolated hail, could occur with a small bowing complex that may
develop and move east-northeastward across the Chicago metro area
late this afternoon and early evening. Enough low-level shear is
also forecast to support a low chance for a tornado or two. Given
recent guidance and observational trends, a small Slight Risk has
been added across northern IL/southern WI to account for this
scenario.
...Southern High Plains...
Isolated/widely spaced thunderstorms should form once again this
afternoon along the length of a surface lee trough/dryline extending
southward across the southern High Plains. Although deep-layer shear
is forecast to remain weak, moderate instability and a well-mixed
boundary layer should support an isolated threat for severe
downdraft winds. Occasional hail may also occur with the more robust
cores before convection weakens after sunset.
..Gleason/Bentley.. 06/16/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Valid 161630Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms appear possible across parts of the upper
Mississippi Valley late this afternoon, with additional storms
likely tonight across the north-central Plains to upper Mississippi
Valley. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. A small
bowing complex, with mainly a severe/damaging wind threat, may also
develop across parts of northern Illinois and vicinity this
afternoon.
...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Upper Mississippi
Valley...
A strong upper trough/low will continue advancing east-northeastward
across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces today.
While the primary surface low is expected to remain in central
Canada, a weak secondary low should develop generally eastward
across MN through this evening in tandem with a cold front. Warm
mid-level temperatures associated with a cap should tend to inhibit
robust convective development for at least a few more hours into the
early afternoon. But, most guidance now does show thunderstorm
initiation occurring along the front in northern MN by 20-22Z. There
are still concerns/uncertainty with how many intense thunderstorms
will be able to form given fairly prevalent cloudiness that should
temper daytime heating to some extent. Still, strong deep-layer
shear and steepening mid-level lapse rates atop a gradually
destabilizing low-level airmass should support a threat for
supercells and large hail. Some guidance suggests a fairly quick
progression to a MCS, which seems reasonable given the linear
forcing of the cold front. If this occurs, then a severe/damaging
wind threat may persist through the evening into parts of northern
WI and the U.P. of MI. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to
support low-level updraft rotation and a tornado or two across this
region.
A separate area of intense thunderstorm development is possible late
this afternoon and early evening along the trailing portion of the
cold front in NE/northwest KS and vicinity. If convection can
initiate along this boundary, strong instability and modest
deep-layer shear would support a threat for mainly multicells posing
a risk for severe winds given the well mixed boundary layer
forecast. Some hail could also occur with marginal supercell
structures. The Slight Risk has been expanded southward across the
central Plains to account for this scenario. Otherwise, scattered to
numerous elevated thunderstorms are still expected to develop this
evening and overnight generally north of the front from eastern WY
into NE/SD and southern MN. A strengthening low-level jet in this
time frame across these regions and ample deep-layer shear/MUCAPE
will easily support supercells and a hail threat with initial
development. But, convective mode may quickly become messy, with one
or more bows/clusters possible as thunderstorms move eastward across
the upper MS Valley overnight. Even though this activity should tend
to remain elevated, an isolated severe/damaging wind threat may
persist given the strong MUCAPE forecast.
...Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin...
A well defined MCV remains evident on visible satellite and radar
imagery late this morning over northeast MO and southern IA. This
feature should continue to track northeastward this afternoon and
evening in the modest southwesterly mid-level flow regime across the
mid MS Valley/Midwest. Ample daytime heating of a moist low-level
airmass should support around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid
afternoon across northern IL and vicinity. Ascent associated with
the MCV and its associated mid-level vorticity maximum will likely
encourage the development of isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms by 20-22Z. Modest but sufficient deep-layer shear for
updraft organization is indicated in various RAP forecast soundings
across this region. Scattered severe/damaging winds, along with
isolated hail, could occur with a small bowing complex that may
develop and move east-northeastward across the Chicago metro area
late this afternoon and early evening. Enough low-level shear is
also forecast to support a low chance for a tornado or two. Given
recent guidance and observational trends, a small Slight Risk has
been added across northern IL/southern WI to account for this
scenario.
...Southern High Plains...
Isolated/widely spaced thunderstorms should form once again this
afternoon along the length of a surface lee trough/dryline extending
southward across the southern High Plains. Although deep-layer shear
is forecast to remain weak, moderate instability and a well-mixed
boundary layer should support an isolated threat for severe
downdraft winds. Occasional hail may also occur with the more robust
cores before convection weakens after sunset.
..Gleason/Bentley.. 06/16/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Valid 161300Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the Upper
Mississippi Valley late this afternoon, with additional storms
tonight across the north-central Plains to upper Mississippi Valley,
with large hail the primary risk.
...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Great Lakes...
Multiple convectively enhanced disturbances/MCVs are noted
regionally including across Wisconsin and northern Missouri,
embedded with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies aloft
located over the Dakotas and Canadian Prairies. Shortwave ridging
will generally be noted over the Upper Midwest/upper Mississippi
Valley vicinity today, with strong warm-sector ample destabilization
in the wake of early day cloud cover and lingering convection. At
least isolated/widely scattered late-day thunderstorm redevelopment
is plausible, most likely near a surface low/triple point across
northern Wisconsin into Upper Michigan, and potentially along the
southwestward-extending cold front along the Minnesota/Iowa border
vicinity. Large hail and damaging winds are possible. A few severe
storms are also possible farther south into areas such as northern
Illinois, potentially influenced by an upstream MCV/prior outflow.
A greater coverage of potentially severe storms is expected into the
evening and beyond, as the low-level jet refocuses and intensifies
across the central Plains after sunset. A strong signal for robust
elevated convection exists across portions of Nebraska/South Dakota
tonight, and this activity should spread northeastward through the
overnight hours. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE (in
excess of 2000 J/kg), with large hail as the primary concern with
the elevated convection.
..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/16/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Valid 161300Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the Upper
Mississippi Valley late this afternoon, with additional storms
tonight across the north-central Plains to upper Mississippi Valley,
with large hail the primary risk.
...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Great Lakes...
Multiple convectively enhanced disturbances/MCVs are noted
regionally including across Wisconsin and northern Missouri,
embedded with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies aloft
located over the Dakotas and Canadian Prairies. Shortwave ridging
will generally be noted over the Upper Midwest/upper Mississippi
Valley vicinity today, with strong warm-sector ample destabilization
in the wake of early day cloud cover and lingering convection. At
least isolated/widely scattered late-day thunderstorm redevelopment
is plausible, most likely near a surface low/triple point across
northern Wisconsin into Upper Michigan, and potentially along the
southwestward-extending cold front along the Minnesota/Iowa border
vicinity. Large hail and damaging winds are possible. A few severe
storms are also possible farther south into areas such as northern
Illinois, potentially influenced by an upstream MCV/prior outflow.
A greater coverage of potentially severe storms is expected into the
evening and beyond, as the low-level jet refocuses and intensifies
across the central Plains after sunset. A strong signal for robust
elevated convection exists across portions of Nebraska/South Dakota
tonight, and this activity should spread northeastward through the
overnight hours. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE (in
excess of 2000 J/kg), with large hail as the primary concern with
the elevated convection.
..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/16/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Valid 161300Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the Upper
Mississippi Valley late this afternoon, with additional storms
tonight across the north-central Plains to upper Mississippi Valley,
with large hail the primary risk.
...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Great Lakes...
Multiple convectively enhanced disturbances/MCVs are noted
regionally including across Wisconsin and northern Missouri,
embedded with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies aloft
located over the Dakotas and Canadian Prairies. Shortwave ridging
will generally be noted over the Upper Midwest/upper Mississippi
Valley vicinity today, with strong warm-sector ample destabilization
in the wake of early day cloud cover and lingering convection. At
least isolated/widely scattered late-day thunderstorm redevelopment
is plausible, most likely near a surface low/triple point across
northern Wisconsin into Upper Michigan, and potentially along the
southwestward-extending cold front along the Minnesota/Iowa border
vicinity. Large hail and damaging winds are possible. A few severe
storms are also possible farther south into areas such as northern
Illinois, potentially influenced by an upstream MCV/prior outflow.
A greater coverage of potentially severe storms is expected into the
evening and beyond, as the low-level jet refocuses and intensifies
across the central Plains after sunset. A strong signal for robust
elevated convection exists across portions of Nebraska/South Dakota
tonight, and this activity should spread northeastward through the
overnight hours. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE (in
excess of 2000 J/kg), with large hail as the primary concern with
the elevated convection.
..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/16/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Valid 161300Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the Upper
Mississippi Valley late this afternoon, with additional storms
tonight across the north-central Plains to upper Mississippi Valley,
with large hail the primary risk.
...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Great Lakes...
Multiple convectively enhanced disturbances/MCVs are noted
regionally including across Wisconsin and northern Missouri,
embedded with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies aloft
located over the Dakotas and Canadian Prairies. Shortwave ridging
will generally be noted over the Upper Midwest/upper Mississippi
Valley vicinity today, with strong warm-sector ample destabilization
in the wake of early day cloud cover and lingering convection. At
least isolated/widely scattered late-day thunderstorm redevelopment
is plausible, most likely near a surface low/triple point across
northern Wisconsin into Upper Michigan, and potentially along the
southwestward-extending cold front along the Minnesota/Iowa border
vicinity. Large hail and damaging winds are possible. A few severe
storms are also possible farther south into areas such as northern
Illinois, potentially influenced by an upstream MCV/prior outflow.
A greater coverage of potentially severe storms is expected into the
evening and beyond, as the low-level jet refocuses and intensifies
across the central Plains after sunset. A strong signal for robust
elevated convection exists across portions of Nebraska/South Dakota
tonight, and this activity should spread northeastward through the
overnight hours. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE (in
excess of 2000 J/kg), with large hail as the primary concern with
the elevated convection.
..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/16/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Valid 161300Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the Upper
Mississippi Valley late this afternoon, with additional storms
tonight across the north-central Plains to upper Mississippi Valley,
with large hail the primary risk.
...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Great Lakes...
Multiple convectively enhanced disturbances/MCVs are noted
regionally including across Wisconsin and northern Missouri,
embedded with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies aloft
located over the Dakotas and Canadian Prairies. Shortwave ridging
will generally be noted over the Upper Midwest/upper Mississippi
Valley vicinity today, with strong warm-sector ample destabilization
in the wake of early day cloud cover and lingering convection. At
least isolated/widely scattered late-day thunderstorm redevelopment
is plausible, most likely near a surface low/triple point across
northern Wisconsin into Upper Michigan, and potentially along the
southwestward-extending cold front along the Minnesota/Iowa border
vicinity. Large hail and damaging winds are possible. A few severe
storms are also possible farther south into areas such as northern
Illinois, potentially influenced by an upstream MCV/prior outflow.
A greater coverage of potentially severe storms is expected into the
evening and beyond, as the low-level jet refocuses and intensifies
across the central Plains after sunset. A strong signal for robust
elevated convection exists across portions of Nebraska/South Dakota
tonight, and this activity should spread northeastward through the
overnight hours. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE (in
excess of 2000 J/kg), with large hail as the primary concern with
the elevated convection.
..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/16/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Valid 161300Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the Upper
Mississippi Valley late this afternoon, with additional storms
tonight across the north-central Plains to upper Mississippi Valley,
with large hail the primary risk.
...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Great Lakes...
Multiple convectively enhanced disturbances/MCVs are noted
regionally including across Wisconsin and northern Missouri,
embedded with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies aloft
located over the Dakotas and Canadian Prairies. Shortwave ridging
will generally be noted over the Upper Midwest/upper Mississippi
Valley vicinity today, with strong warm-sector ample destabilization
in the wake of early day cloud cover and lingering convection. At
least isolated/widely scattered late-day thunderstorm redevelopment
is plausible, most likely near a surface low/triple point across
northern Wisconsin into Upper Michigan, and potentially along the
southwestward-extending cold front along the Minnesota/Iowa border
vicinity. Large hail and damaging winds are possible. A few severe
storms are also possible farther south into areas such as northern
Illinois, potentially influenced by an upstream MCV/prior outflow.
A greater coverage of potentially severe storms is expected into the
evening and beyond, as the low-level jet refocuses and intensifies
across the central Plains after sunset. A strong signal for robust
elevated convection exists across portions of Nebraska/South Dakota
tonight, and this activity should spread northeastward through the
overnight hours. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE (in
excess of 2000 J/kg), with large hail as the primary concern with
the elevated convection.
..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/16/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
WW 0423 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 423
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE JMS
TO 30 ENE DVL TO 30 NNW HCO.
..LEITMAN..06/16/24
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 423
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC063-067-099-161040-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
NELSON PEMBINA WALSH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
WW 0423 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 423
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE JMS
TO 30 ENE DVL TO 30 NNW HCO.
..LEITMAN..06/16/24
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 423
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC063-067-099-161040-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
NELSON PEMBINA WALSH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
WW 423 SEVERE TSTM ND 160500Z - 161100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 423
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern and Northeast North Dakota
* Effective this Sunday morning from Midnight until 600 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A severe squall line will likely continue east across
northern and into northeast North Dakota tonight. Severe gusts
(60-80 mph) will be the primary risk with the stronger surges and
embedded bowing segments within the thunderstorm band.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west of Devils
Lake ND to 25 miles north of Grand Forks ND. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 421...WW 422...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26045.
...Smith
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
MD 1288 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 423... FOR NORTHEAST ND INTO FAR NORTHWEST MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1288
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Areas affected...northeast ND into far northwest MN
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 423...
Valid 160757Z - 160930Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 423
continues.
SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms will continue shifting east through
early morning.
DISCUSSION...A line of storms will continue tracking east near 40
mph the next couple of hours, taking convection across northeast ND
into far northwest MN. Measured gusts the past hour or so have
typically been less than 50 kt. A southerly 850 mb low-level jet
around 25-30 kt ahead of convection, coupled with sufficient
instability and deep-layer shear, will maintain organized convection
for at least another couple of hours. Instability rapidly wanes with
eastward extent into MN as low-level moisture decreases, and storms
should weaken as they enter northwest MN. Locally strong/isolated
severe gusts of 45-60 mph will remain possible in the short term
across northeast ND. A downstream watch and/or aerial watch
extension is not expected.
..Leitman.. 06/16/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 49099846 49049645 48569627 48089675 47789759 47589878
47679972 47989998 48679951 49079933 49099846
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
From Wednesday/D4 into Thursday/D5, an upper trough will move from
Manitoba toward Hudson Bay, with the base of the trough shifting out
of ND/MN. This wave will continue east/northeast into Quebec,
flattening the ridge over the northeastern states. Meanwhile, upper
troughing will exist over the Great Basin, with moderately cool
temperatures aloft. Scattered storms will be likely along the
trailing front from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes,
with perhaps a marginal severe risk given weaker shear and
instability.
Models indicate this western trough may emerge into the northern
Plains Friday/D6 into Saturday/D7, providing perhaps 40 kt midlevel
westerly winds and modest cooling aloft. Such a system may support
areas of strong storms, but overall the threat does not appear
particularly high. However, pockets of stronger instability could
support scattered hail and wind.
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
From Wednesday/D4 into Thursday/D5, an upper trough will move from
Manitoba toward Hudson Bay, with the base of the trough shifting out
of ND/MN. This wave will continue east/northeast into Quebec,
flattening the ridge over the northeastern states. Meanwhile, upper
troughing will exist over the Great Basin, with moderately cool
temperatures aloft. Scattered storms will be likely along the
trailing front from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes,
with perhaps a marginal severe risk given weaker shear and
instability.
Models indicate this western trough may emerge into the northern
Plains Friday/D6 into Saturday/D7, providing perhaps 40 kt midlevel
westerly winds and modest cooling aloft. Such a system may support
areas of strong storms, but overall the threat does not appear
particularly high. However, pockets of stronger instability could
support scattered hail and wind.
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
From Wednesday/D4 into Thursday/D5, an upper trough will move from
Manitoba toward Hudson Bay, with the base of the trough shifting out
of ND/MN. This wave will continue east/northeast into Quebec,
flattening the ridge over the northeastern states. Meanwhile, upper
troughing will exist over the Great Basin, with moderately cool
temperatures aloft. Scattered storms will be likely along the
trailing front from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes,
with perhaps a marginal severe risk given weaker shear and
instability.
Models indicate this western trough may emerge into the northern
Plains Friday/D6 into Saturday/D7, providing perhaps 40 kt midlevel
westerly winds and modest cooling aloft. Such a system may support
areas of strong storms, but overall the threat does not appear
particularly high. However, pockets of stronger instability could
support scattered hail and wind.
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
From Wednesday/D4 into Thursday/D5, an upper trough will move from
Manitoba toward Hudson Bay, with the base of the trough shifting out
of ND/MN. This wave will continue east/northeast into Quebec,
flattening the ridge over the northeastern states. Meanwhile, upper
troughing will exist over the Great Basin, with moderately cool
temperatures aloft. Scattered storms will be likely along the
trailing front from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes,
with perhaps a marginal severe risk given weaker shear and
instability.
Models indicate this western trough may emerge into the northern
Plains Friday/D6 into Saturday/D7, providing perhaps 40 kt midlevel
westerly winds and modest cooling aloft. Such a system may support
areas of strong storms, but overall the threat does not appear
particularly high. However, pockets of stronger instability could
support scattered hail and wind.
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
From Wednesday/D4 into Thursday/D5, an upper trough will move from
Manitoba toward Hudson Bay, with the base of the trough shifting out
of ND/MN. This wave will continue east/northeast into Quebec,
flattening the ridge over the northeastern states. Meanwhile, upper
troughing will exist over the Great Basin, with moderately cool
temperatures aloft. Scattered storms will be likely along the
trailing front from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes,
with perhaps a marginal severe risk given weaker shear and
instability.
Models indicate this western trough may emerge into the northern
Plains Friday/D6 into Saturday/D7, providing perhaps 40 kt midlevel
westerly winds and modest cooling aloft. Such a system may support
areas of strong storms, but overall the threat does not appear
particularly high. However, pockets of stronger instability could
support scattered hail and wind.
Read more
Checked
5 years 10 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
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