Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward toward the middle Missouri Valley, or roughly from eastern Nebraska into Minnesota. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, an upper trough will move eastward across the northern Plains, then northeastward from the upper MS Valley into Ontario as it impinges upon the upper ridge. Low pressure will move from ND across northern MN and into western Ontario through 00Z, with a cold front trailing southwestward across eastern NE and into central/southwest KS. Southerly flow around the eastern ridge maintain a moist air mass with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints common over a very large region south of the cold front. ...Upper MS Valley into middle MO Valley... Early day storms are forecast to quickly exit the ND/northern MN region as the warm front pushes north into Canada. Thereafter, modest heating along with the moist air mass, combined with minimal cooling aloft, will yield 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE ahead of the front, where midlevel winds will be roughly parallel to the boundary. This may support a few linear structures moving quickly northeastward with the mean flow, and producing locally damaging gusts and marginal hail. Farther south along the front and into the central Plains, isolated strong storms are expected as low-level lapse rates will be steep from NM into southwest KS. Forecast soundings in this area show marginal shear but probably enough veering with height to support slow-moving cells capable of locally large hail or gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHEASTERN UTAH...PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A secondary shortwave will rotate through the western US trough on Monday, bringing continued strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northeastern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph. Fuels in this region are critically dry, supporting maintaining a Critical delineation across these regions on Monday. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected as strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph on the backside of the trough overlaps relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) within the Sacramento Valley and San Joaquin Valley in northern/central California. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 06/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHEASTERN UTAH...PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A secondary shortwave will rotate through the western US trough on Monday, bringing continued strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northeastern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph. Fuels in this region are critically dry, supporting maintaining a Critical delineation across these regions on Monday. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected as strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph on the backside of the trough overlaps relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) within the Sacramento Valley and San Joaquin Valley in northern/central California. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 06/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHEASTERN UTAH...PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A secondary shortwave will rotate through the western US trough on Monday, bringing continued strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northeastern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph. Fuels in this region are critically dry, supporting maintaining a Critical delineation across these regions on Monday. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected as strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph on the backside of the trough overlaps relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) within the Sacramento Valley and San Joaquin Valley in northern/central California. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 06/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHEASTERN UTAH...PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A secondary shortwave will rotate through the western US trough on Monday, bringing continued strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northeastern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph. Fuels in this region are critically dry, supporting maintaining a Critical delineation across these regions on Monday. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected as strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph on the backside of the trough overlaps relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) within the Sacramento Valley and San Joaquin Valley in northern/central California. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 06/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHEASTERN UTAH...PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A secondary shortwave will rotate through the western US trough on Monday, bringing continued strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northeastern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph. Fuels in this region are critically dry, supporting maintaining a Critical delineation across these regions on Monday. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected as strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph on the backside of the trough overlaps relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) within the Sacramento Valley and San Joaquin Valley in northern/central California. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 06/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHEASTERN UTAH...PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A secondary shortwave will rotate through the western US trough on Monday, bringing continued strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northeastern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph. Fuels in this region are critically dry, supporting maintaining a Critical delineation across these regions on Monday. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected as strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph on the backside of the trough overlaps relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) within the Sacramento Valley and San Joaquin Valley in northern/central California. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 06/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHEASTERN UTAH...PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A secondary shortwave will rotate through the western US trough on Monday, bringing continued strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northeastern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph. Fuels in this region are critically dry, supporting maintaining a Critical delineation across these regions on Monday. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected as strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph on the backside of the trough overlaps relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) within the Sacramento Valley and San Joaquin Valley in northern/central California. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 06/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHEASTERN UTAH...PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A secondary shortwave will rotate through the western US trough on Monday, bringing continued strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northeastern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph. Fuels in this region are critically dry, supporting maintaining a Critical delineation across these regions on Monday. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected as strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph on the backside of the trough overlaps relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) within the Sacramento Valley and San Joaquin Valley in northern/central California. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 06/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHEASTERN UTAH...PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A secondary shortwave will rotate through the western US trough on Monday, bringing continued strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northeastern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph. Fuels in this region are critically dry, supporting maintaining a Critical delineation across these regions on Monday. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected as strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph on the backside of the trough overlaps relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) within the Sacramento Valley and San Joaquin Valley in northern/central California. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 06/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHEASTERN UTAH...PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A secondary shortwave will rotate through the western US trough on Monday, bringing continued strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northeastern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph. Fuels in this region are critically dry, supporting maintaining a Critical delineation across these regions on Monday. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected as strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph on the backside of the trough overlaps relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) within the Sacramento Valley and San Joaquin Valley in northern/central California. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 06/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHEASTERN UTAH...PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A secondary shortwave will rotate through the western US trough on Monday, bringing continued strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northeastern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph. Fuels in this region are critically dry, supporting maintaining a Critical delineation across these regions on Monday. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected as strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph on the backside of the trough overlaps relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) within the Sacramento Valley and San Joaquin Valley in northern/central California. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 06/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHEASTERN UTAH...PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A secondary shortwave will rotate through the western US trough on Monday, bringing continued strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northeastern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph. Fuels in this region are critically dry, supporting maintaining a Critical delineation across these regions on Monday. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected as strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph on the backside of the trough overlaps relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) within the Sacramento Valley and San Joaquin Valley in northern/central California. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 06/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHEASTERN UTAH...PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A secondary shortwave will rotate through the western US trough on Monday, bringing continued strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northeastern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph. Fuels in this region are critically dry, supporting maintaining a Critical delineation across these regions on Monday. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected as strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph on the backside of the trough overlaps relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) within the Sacramento Valley and San Joaquin Valley in northern/central California. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 06/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHEASTERN UTAH...PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A secondary shortwave will rotate through the western US trough on Monday, bringing continued strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northeastern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph. Fuels in this region are critically dry, supporting maintaining a Critical delineation across these regions on Monday. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected as strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph on the backside of the trough overlaps relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) within the Sacramento Valley and San Joaquin Valley in northern/central California. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 06/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEVADA... ...Synopsis... A deepening western trough will bring an increase in southwesterly flow across much of the desert Southwest this afternoon. Fuels in this region have seen significant drying after several days of warm and dry conditions. Guidance indicates fuels in this region are critically dry, with recent ERCs data indicating 90th percentile for dryness across much of northern and central Arizona. This is further supported by active recent fire activity in this region. Relative humidity reductions to 5-10 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph across central/northern Arizona, southern Utah, and far southeastern Nevada where a Critical delineation was maintained with this outlook. Outside of this region, a more broad area of Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across much of central/southern Utah into southern Arizona, where there is less confidence is sustained Critical wind speeds. Elevated conditions may also extend into portions of western Nevada in the lee of the Sierras. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher) amid modestly receptive fuels. ..Thornton.. 06/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEVADA... ...Synopsis... A deepening western trough will bring an increase in southwesterly flow across much of the desert Southwest this afternoon. Fuels in this region have seen significant drying after several days of warm and dry conditions. Guidance indicates fuels in this region are critically dry, with recent ERCs data indicating 90th percentile for dryness across much of northern and central Arizona. This is further supported by active recent fire activity in this region. Relative humidity reductions to 5-10 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph across central/northern Arizona, southern Utah, and far southeastern Nevada where a Critical delineation was maintained with this outlook. Outside of this region, a more broad area of Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across much of central/southern Utah into southern Arizona, where there is less confidence is sustained Critical wind speeds. Elevated conditions may also extend into portions of western Nevada in the lee of the Sierras. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher) amid modestly receptive fuels. ..Thornton.. 06/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEVADA... ...Synopsis... A deepening western trough will bring an increase in southwesterly flow across much of the desert Southwest this afternoon. Fuels in this region have seen significant drying after several days of warm and dry conditions. Guidance indicates fuels in this region are critically dry, with recent ERCs data indicating 90th percentile for dryness across much of northern and central Arizona. This is further supported by active recent fire activity in this region. Relative humidity reductions to 5-10 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph across central/northern Arizona, southern Utah, and far southeastern Nevada where a Critical delineation was maintained with this outlook. Outside of this region, a more broad area of Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across much of central/southern Utah into southern Arizona, where there is less confidence is sustained Critical wind speeds. Elevated conditions may also extend into portions of western Nevada in the lee of the Sierras. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher) amid modestly receptive fuels. ..Thornton.. 06/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEVADA... ...Synopsis... A deepening western trough will bring an increase in southwesterly flow across much of the desert Southwest this afternoon. Fuels in this region have seen significant drying after several days of warm and dry conditions. Guidance indicates fuels in this region are critically dry, with recent ERCs data indicating 90th percentile for dryness across much of northern and central Arizona. This is further supported by active recent fire activity in this region. Relative humidity reductions to 5-10 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph across central/northern Arizona, southern Utah, and far southeastern Nevada where a Critical delineation was maintained with this outlook. Outside of this region, a more broad area of Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across much of central/southern Utah into southern Arizona, where there is less confidence is sustained Critical wind speeds. Elevated conditions may also extend into portions of western Nevada in the lee of the Sierras. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher) amid modestly receptive fuels. ..Thornton.. 06/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEVADA... ...Synopsis... A deepening western trough will bring an increase in southwesterly flow across much of the desert Southwest this afternoon. Fuels in this region have seen significant drying after several days of warm and dry conditions. Guidance indicates fuels in this region are critically dry, with recent ERCs data indicating 90th percentile for dryness across much of northern and central Arizona. This is further supported by active recent fire activity in this region. Relative humidity reductions to 5-10 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph across central/northern Arizona, southern Utah, and far southeastern Nevada where a Critical delineation was maintained with this outlook. Outside of this region, a more broad area of Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across much of central/southern Utah into southern Arizona, where there is less confidence is sustained Critical wind speeds. Elevated conditions may also extend into portions of western Nevada in the lee of the Sierras. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher) amid modestly receptive fuels. ..Thornton.. 06/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more