Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOWER AND MIDDLE COASTS OF TEXAS...NORTHERN OHIO AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across south and southeast Texas later this afternoon into tonight. Scattered strong to locally severe/damaging gusts are possible over portions of the southern Great Lakes this afternoon into the early evening. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an East Coast upper ridge while a broad mid-level trough resides over the West. The upper ridge will build westward into the mid MS Valley as the primary belt of westerlies retreats north of the international border. This westward expansion will encourage the tropical system over the western Gulf basin to move into northeast Mexico, considerably south of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower Great Lakes to northern New England... While upper ridging will dominate this region, scattered convection will once again develop from portions of the Ohio Valley northeastward into New England, as surface temperatures warm through the upper 80s the lower 90s F. Area 88D VADs show a slightly stronger belt of mid-level southwesterly flow over the southern Great Lakes, which may act to influence storm organization and potential storm intensity/severe risk later this afternoon. Model forecast soundings show a seasonably moist/unstable airmass (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) across much of this region. Strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard with the stronger storms, especially if small clustering of storms can occur. Based on the latest model guidance and visible satellite observations, this appears most likely across parts of northern OH into perhaps southeast Lower MI. ...South/southeast Texas... Despite an initially poor lapse rate/weakly unstable environment sampled with the 12 UTC Corpus Christi and Brownsville raobs, a moist-tropical airmass will continue to advect into the region on the northern periphery of Alberto, with MLCAPE likely rising into the 500-1500 J/kg range near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX by later this afternoon. Model guidance continues to indicate low-level shear to increase, which will result in hodographs enlarging by mid-late afternoon into tonight across the coastal plain of TX (0-1 km SRH (100-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). The likely cellular storm mode will also potentially be slightly more favorable for a tornado risk, considering the environment scenario described above. As such, have increased tornado probabilities to 5 percent (Slight Risk) near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest details on Tropical Storm Alberto. ...Southern High Plains... Radar/surface composite analysis late this morning shows a persistent area of weak convection north of a south-southwest moving outflow boundary from the TX Panhandle into northeast NM. Considerable lingering clouds and related convection will probably limit instability from near the TX/NM border and areas east. However, west of the outflow appreciable moisture and heating will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Isolated large hail/severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before diminishing by mid evening. ...Northern Missouri/eastern Iowa to southern Wisconsin... To the east-northeast of lingering early morning convection across northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri, cloud cover should generally diminish today near the outflow augmented southwest/northeast-oriented synoptic front across the region. Potentially aided by an MCV, thunderstorms should redevelop and intensify this afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes, with as much as 30 kt of effective shear maximized immediately near the synoptic front. Isolated instances of localized wind damage could occur. ..Smith/Lyons.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND MIDWEST TO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong wind gusts and hail may occur with storms over the southern High Plains, with a couple of strong gusts also possible across parts of the Midwest and from the Lower Great Lakes into New England. A brief tornado or two may occur across south Texas through tonight. ...Synopsis... Dominant East Coast upper ridge is forecast to build west into the Middle Mississippi Valley later today as the primary belt of westerlies retreats north of the international border. This westward expansion will encourage the tropical system over the western Gulf basin to move into northeast Mexico, considerably south of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Southern High Plains... As convection persists while generally diminishing in overall intensity across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and northwest Oklahoma this morning, outflows will contribute to additional moistening with westward extend across far west/northwest Texas into eastern New Mexico. This is where potentially severe thunderstorm development is expected around mid/late afternoon across the Raton Mesa vicinity southward across east-central/southeast New Mexico. Instances of large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts will be possible. ...Lower Great Lakes to northern New England... While upper ridging will dominate this region, scattered convection will once again develop from portions of the Ohio Valley northeastward into New England, as surface temperatures warm through the mid 80s to near 90 F. Convective temperatures will be breached and thunderstorms should develop within a seasonally moist environment with PW values in excess of 1.75 inches. Gusty winds are the primary concern with this convection occurring in a weakly sheared environment. ...South/southeast Texas... Low-level shear will increase especially this afternoon into tonight along the Texas Coast and inland across south Texas, along the northern fringe of the western Gulf basin tropical system. Reference NHC for the latest details on Potential Tropical Cyclone One, as this feature may evolve into a tropical cyclone before it moves inland south of the lower Rio Grande Valley. While this system will remain at low latitudes, 850mb flow is expected to increase across south Texas such that sustained updrafts will likely rotate. High PW and strong low-level shear favors some risk for a tornado or two. ...Northern Missouri/eastern Iowa to southern Wisconsin... To the east-northeast of lingering early morning convection across northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri, cloud cover should generally diminish today near the outflow augmented southwest/northeast-oriented synoptic front across the region. Potentially aided by an MCV, thunderstorms should redevelop and intensify this afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes, with as much as 30 kt of effective shear maximized immediately near the synoptic front. Isolated instances of localized wind damage could occur. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND MIDWEST TO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong wind gusts and hail may occur with storms over the southern High Plains, with a couple of strong gusts also possible across parts of the Midwest and from the Lower Great Lakes into New England. A brief tornado or two may occur across south Texas through tonight. ...Synopsis... Dominant East Coast upper ridge is forecast to build west into the Middle Mississippi Valley later today as the primary belt of westerlies retreats north of the international border. This westward expansion will encourage the tropical system over the western Gulf basin to move into northeast Mexico, considerably south of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Southern High Plains... As convection persists while generally diminishing in overall intensity across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and northwest Oklahoma this morning, outflows will contribute to additional moistening with westward extend across far west/northwest Texas into eastern New Mexico. This is where potentially severe thunderstorm development is expected around mid/late afternoon across the Raton Mesa vicinity southward across east-central/southeast New Mexico. Instances of large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts will be possible. ...Lower Great Lakes to northern New England... While upper ridging will dominate this region, scattered convection will once again develop from portions of the Ohio Valley northeastward into New England, as surface temperatures warm through the mid 80s to near 90 F. Convective temperatures will be breached and thunderstorms should develop within a seasonally moist environment with PW values in excess of 1.75 inches. Gusty winds are the primary concern with this convection occurring in a weakly sheared environment. ...South/southeast Texas... Low-level shear will increase especially this afternoon into tonight along the Texas Coast and inland across south Texas, along the northern fringe of the western Gulf basin tropical system. Reference NHC for the latest details on Potential Tropical Cyclone One, as this feature may evolve into a tropical cyclone before it moves inland south of the lower Rio Grande Valley. While this system will remain at low latitudes, 850mb flow is expected to increase across south Texas such that sustained updrafts will likely rotate. High PW and strong low-level shear favors some risk for a tornado or two. ...Northern Missouri/eastern Iowa to southern Wisconsin... To the east-northeast of lingering early morning convection across northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri, cloud cover should generally diminish today near the outflow augmented southwest/northeast-oriented synoptic front across the region. Potentially aided by an MCV, thunderstorms should redevelop and intensify this afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes, with as much as 30 kt of effective shear maximized immediately near the synoptic front. Isolated instances of localized wind damage could occur. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND MIDWEST TO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong wind gusts and hail may occur with storms over the southern High Plains, with a couple of strong gusts also possible across parts of the Midwest and from the Lower Great Lakes into New England. A brief tornado or two may occur across south Texas through tonight. ...Synopsis... Dominant East Coast upper ridge is forecast to build west into the Middle Mississippi Valley later today as the primary belt of westerlies retreats north of the international border. This westward expansion will encourage the tropical system over the western Gulf basin to move into northeast Mexico, considerably south of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Southern High Plains... As convection persists while generally diminishing in overall intensity across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and northwest Oklahoma this morning, outflows will contribute to additional moistening with westward extend across far west/northwest Texas into eastern New Mexico. This is where potentially severe thunderstorm development is expected around mid/late afternoon across the Raton Mesa vicinity southward across east-central/southeast New Mexico. Instances of large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts will be possible. ...Lower Great Lakes to northern New England... While upper ridging will dominate this region, scattered convection will once again develop from portions of the Ohio Valley northeastward into New England, as surface temperatures warm through the mid 80s to near 90 F. Convective temperatures will be breached and thunderstorms should develop within a seasonally moist environment with PW values in excess of 1.75 inches. Gusty winds are the primary concern with this convection occurring in a weakly sheared environment. ...South/southeast Texas... Low-level shear will increase especially this afternoon into tonight along the Texas Coast and inland across south Texas, along the northern fringe of the western Gulf basin tropical system. Reference NHC for the latest details on Potential Tropical Cyclone One, as this feature may evolve into a tropical cyclone before it moves inland south of the lower Rio Grande Valley. While this system will remain at low latitudes, 850mb flow is expected to increase across south Texas such that sustained updrafts will likely rotate. High PW and strong low-level shear favors some risk for a tornado or two. ...Northern Missouri/eastern Iowa to southern Wisconsin... To the east-northeast of lingering early morning convection across northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri, cloud cover should generally diminish today near the outflow augmented southwest/northeast-oriented synoptic front across the region. Potentially aided by an MCV, thunderstorms should redevelop and intensify this afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes, with as much as 30 kt of effective shear maximized immediately near the synoptic front. Isolated instances of localized wind damage could occur. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND MIDWEST TO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong wind gusts and hail may occur with storms over the southern High Plains, with a couple of strong gusts also possible across parts of the Midwest and from the Lower Great Lakes into New England. A brief tornado or two may occur across south Texas through tonight. ...Synopsis... Dominant East Coast upper ridge is forecast to build west into the Middle Mississippi Valley later today as the primary belt of westerlies retreats north of the international border. This westward expansion will encourage the tropical system over the western Gulf basin to move into northeast Mexico, considerably south of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Southern High Plains... As convection persists while generally diminishing in overall intensity across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and northwest Oklahoma this morning, outflows will contribute to additional moistening with westward extend across far west/northwest Texas into eastern New Mexico. This is where potentially severe thunderstorm development is expected around mid/late afternoon across the Raton Mesa vicinity southward across east-central/southeast New Mexico. Instances of large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts will be possible. ...Lower Great Lakes to northern New England... While upper ridging will dominate this region, scattered convection will once again develop from portions of the Ohio Valley northeastward into New England, as surface temperatures warm through the mid 80s to near 90 F. Convective temperatures will be breached and thunderstorms should develop within a seasonally moist environment with PW values in excess of 1.75 inches. Gusty winds are the primary concern with this convection occurring in a weakly sheared environment. ...South/southeast Texas... Low-level shear will increase especially this afternoon into tonight along the Texas Coast and inland across south Texas, along the northern fringe of the western Gulf basin tropical system. Reference NHC for the latest details on Potential Tropical Cyclone One, as this feature may evolve into a tropical cyclone before it moves inland south of the lower Rio Grande Valley. While this system will remain at low latitudes, 850mb flow is expected to increase across south Texas such that sustained updrafts will likely rotate. High PW and strong low-level shear favors some risk for a tornado or two. ...Northern Missouri/eastern Iowa to southern Wisconsin... To the east-northeast of lingering early morning convection across northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri, cloud cover should generally diminish today near the outflow augmented southwest/northeast-oriented synoptic front across the region. Potentially aided by an MCV, thunderstorms should redevelop and intensify this afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes, with as much as 30 kt of effective shear maximized immediately near the synoptic front. Isolated instances of localized wind damage could occur. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND MIDWEST TO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong wind gusts and hail may occur with storms over the southern High Plains, with a couple of strong gusts also possible across parts of the Midwest and from the Lower Great Lakes into New England. A brief tornado or two may occur across south Texas through tonight. ...Synopsis... Dominant East Coast upper ridge is forecast to build west into the Middle Mississippi Valley later today as the primary belt of westerlies retreats north of the international border. This westward expansion will encourage the tropical system over the western Gulf basin to move into northeast Mexico, considerably south of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Southern High Plains... As convection persists while generally diminishing in overall intensity across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and northwest Oklahoma this morning, outflows will contribute to additional moistening with westward extend across far west/northwest Texas into eastern New Mexico. This is where potentially severe thunderstorm development is expected around mid/late afternoon across the Raton Mesa vicinity southward across east-central/southeast New Mexico. Instances of large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts will be possible. ...Lower Great Lakes to northern New England... While upper ridging will dominate this region, scattered convection will once again develop from portions of the Ohio Valley northeastward into New England, as surface temperatures warm through the mid 80s to near 90 F. Convective temperatures will be breached and thunderstorms should develop within a seasonally moist environment with PW values in excess of 1.75 inches. Gusty winds are the primary concern with this convection occurring in a weakly sheared environment. ...South/southeast Texas... Low-level shear will increase especially this afternoon into tonight along the Texas Coast and inland across south Texas, along the northern fringe of the western Gulf basin tropical system. Reference NHC for the latest details on Potential Tropical Cyclone One, as this feature may evolve into a tropical cyclone before it moves inland south of the lower Rio Grande Valley. While this system will remain at low latitudes, 850mb flow is expected to increase across south Texas such that sustained updrafts will likely rotate. High PW and strong low-level shear favors some risk for a tornado or two. ...Northern Missouri/eastern Iowa to southern Wisconsin... To the east-northeast of lingering early morning convection across northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri, cloud cover should generally diminish today near the outflow augmented southwest/northeast-oriented synoptic front across the region. Potentially aided by an MCV, thunderstorms should redevelop and intensify this afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes, with as much as 30 kt of effective shear maximized immediately near the synoptic front. Isolated instances of localized wind damage could occur. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/19/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models indicate a shortwave trough and possible lead wave over the northern Plains on Saturday/D4 will move east/southeast toward the Great Lakes and then into the Northeast through Sunday/D5. There is quite a bit of variability with this setup, and as a result predictability is low. However, at least a low-end risk of severe storms may occur over the upper MS Valley/Upper Great Lakes on Saturday/D4. Instability looks to get weaker as the trough shifts into the Northeast on Sunday/D5, but any of the stronger trough solutions could pose at least a marginal risk for severe weather at that time. From Monday/D6 and beyond, it appears the stronger flow aloft will be relegated to the US/CN border, with generally low severe potential across the CONUS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models indicate a shortwave trough and possible lead wave over the northern Plains on Saturday/D4 will move east/southeast toward the Great Lakes and then into the Northeast through Sunday/D5. There is quite a bit of variability with this setup, and as a result predictability is low. However, at least a low-end risk of severe storms may occur over the upper MS Valley/Upper Great Lakes on Saturday/D4. Instability looks to get weaker as the trough shifts into the Northeast on Sunday/D5, but any of the stronger trough solutions could pose at least a marginal risk for severe weather at that time. From Monday/D6 and beyond, it appears the stronger flow aloft will be relegated to the US/CN border, with generally low severe potential across the CONUS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models indicate a shortwave trough and possible lead wave over the northern Plains on Saturday/D4 will move east/southeast toward the Great Lakes and then into the Northeast through Sunday/D5. There is quite a bit of variability with this setup, and as a result predictability is low. However, at least a low-end risk of severe storms may occur over the upper MS Valley/Upper Great Lakes on Saturday/D4. Instability looks to get weaker as the trough shifts into the Northeast on Sunday/D5, but any of the stronger trough solutions could pose at least a marginal risk for severe weather at that time. From Monday/D6 and beyond, it appears the stronger flow aloft will be relegated to the US/CN border, with generally low severe potential across the CONUS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models indicate a shortwave trough and possible lead wave over the northern Plains on Saturday/D4 will move east/southeast toward the Great Lakes and then into the Northeast through Sunday/D5. There is quite a bit of variability with this setup, and as a result predictability is low. However, at least a low-end risk of severe storms may occur over the upper MS Valley/Upper Great Lakes on Saturday/D4. Instability looks to get weaker as the trough shifts into the Northeast on Sunday/D5, but any of the stronger trough solutions could pose at least a marginal risk for severe weather at that time. From Monday/D6 and beyond, it appears the stronger flow aloft will be relegated to the US/CN border, with generally low severe potential across the CONUS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models indicate a shortwave trough and possible lead wave over the northern Plains on Saturday/D4 will move east/southeast toward the Great Lakes and then into the Northeast through Sunday/D5. There is quite a bit of variability with this setup, and as a result predictability is low. However, at least a low-end risk of severe storms may occur over the upper MS Valley/Upper Great Lakes on Saturday/D4. Instability looks to get weaker as the trough shifts into the Northeast on Sunday/D5, but any of the stronger trough solutions could pose at least a marginal risk for severe weather at that time. From Monday/D6 and beyond, it appears the stronger flow aloft will be relegated to the US/CN border, with generally low severe potential across the CONUS. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE NORTHEAST...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible over the northern Plains to upper Mississippi Valley on Friday, with a few strong storms over parts of the Northeast. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a strong upper ridge will remain over the eastern CONUS, but will begin to retrograde toward the MS Valley and southern Plains late in the period. Meanwhile, the upper trough over the Great Basin will eject northeastward across the northern Rockies during the day, with cooling aloft and 40 kt midlevel winds over MT through 00Z. This wave will continue across the northern Plains and toward the upper MS Valley into Saturday morning, with increasing winds aloft north of the upper ridge. Moderate west/northwest flow aloft will develop across New England, as the eastern Canada trough rounds the upper ridge. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the Southeast and into the southern Plains, with a warm front lifting north across the upper MS Valley. Weak low pressure will exist from WY into NE during the day, moving in to MN overnight with a front/wind shift across the Dakotas. The warm sector there will favor strong storms as instability develops ahead of the upper wave. To the east, a weak front will drop south across southern New England into PA, providing a focus for daytime thunderstorms as the air mass remains unstable. ...Upper MS Valley... Daytime heating and moisture advection will result in destabilization across the northern Plains south of the warm front. Southerly winds will increase during the day over NE and SD near the surface low, with strengthening convergence as the cold front arrives from the west overnight. A few strong elevated storms could produce marginal hail over northern MN north of the warm front, but the greatest severe potential will develop during the late afternoon from western NE into SD. Shear will not be particularly strong but it will be sufficient to support a few cells capable of hail, with increasing wind damage potential through the evening as the trough continues east. A Slight Risk may be needed in later updates as predictability increases. ...Northeast... A moist and unstable air mass will remain across the area south of a front, which may be reinforced by residual outflow or early-day showers/thunderstorms. Gradual height falls will occur during the day over the region as the upper ridge shifts west, with strong heating expected across OH and PA. Shear will again be weak but diurnal storms may produce locally strong or damaging gusts from portions of PA eastward into southern New England. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE NORTHEAST...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible over the northern Plains to upper Mississippi Valley on Friday, with a few strong storms over parts of the Northeast. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a strong upper ridge will remain over the eastern CONUS, but will begin to retrograde toward the MS Valley and southern Plains late in the period. Meanwhile, the upper trough over the Great Basin will eject northeastward across the northern Rockies during the day, with cooling aloft and 40 kt midlevel winds over MT through 00Z. This wave will continue across the northern Plains and toward the upper MS Valley into Saturday morning, with increasing winds aloft north of the upper ridge. Moderate west/northwest flow aloft will develop across New England, as the eastern Canada trough rounds the upper ridge. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the Southeast and into the southern Plains, with a warm front lifting north across the upper MS Valley. Weak low pressure will exist from WY into NE during the day, moving in to MN overnight with a front/wind shift across the Dakotas. The warm sector there will favor strong storms as instability develops ahead of the upper wave. To the east, a weak front will drop south across southern New England into PA, providing a focus for daytime thunderstorms as the air mass remains unstable. ...Upper MS Valley... Daytime heating and moisture advection will result in destabilization across the northern Plains south of the warm front. Southerly winds will increase during the day over NE and SD near the surface low, with strengthening convergence as the cold front arrives from the west overnight. A few strong elevated storms could produce marginal hail over northern MN north of the warm front, but the greatest severe potential will develop during the late afternoon from western NE into SD. Shear will not be particularly strong but it will be sufficient to support a few cells capable of hail, with increasing wind damage potential through the evening as the trough continues east. A Slight Risk may be needed in later updates as predictability increases. ...Northeast... A moist and unstable air mass will remain across the area south of a front, which may be reinforced by residual outflow or early-day showers/thunderstorms. Gradual height falls will occur during the day over the region as the upper ridge shifts west, with strong heating expected across OH and PA. Shear will again be weak but diurnal storms may produce locally strong or damaging gusts from portions of PA eastward into southern New England. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE NORTHEAST...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible over the northern Plains to upper Mississippi Valley on Friday, with a few strong storms over parts of the Northeast. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a strong upper ridge will remain over the eastern CONUS, but will begin to retrograde toward the MS Valley and southern Plains late in the period. Meanwhile, the upper trough over the Great Basin will eject northeastward across the northern Rockies during the day, with cooling aloft and 40 kt midlevel winds over MT through 00Z. This wave will continue across the northern Plains and toward the upper MS Valley into Saturday morning, with increasing winds aloft north of the upper ridge. Moderate west/northwest flow aloft will develop across New England, as the eastern Canada trough rounds the upper ridge. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the Southeast and into the southern Plains, with a warm front lifting north across the upper MS Valley. Weak low pressure will exist from WY into NE during the day, moving in to MN overnight with a front/wind shift across the Dakotas. The warm sector there will favor strong storms as instability develops ahead of the upper wave. To the east, a weak front will drop south across southern New England into PA, providing a focus for daytime thunderstorms as the air mass remains unstable. ...Upper MS Valley... Daytime heating and moisture advection will result in destabilization across the northern Plains south of the warm front. Southerly winds will increase during the day over NE and SD near the surface low, with strengthening convergence as the cold front arrives from the west overnight. A few strong elevated storms could produce marginal hail over northern MN north of the warm front, but the greatest severe potential will develop during the late afternoon from western NE into SD. Shear will not be particularly strong but it will be sufficient to support a few cells capable of hail, with increasing wind damage potential through the evening as the trough continues east. A Slight Risk may be needed in later updates as predictability increases. ...Northeast... A moist and unstable air mass will remain across the area south of a front, which may be reinforced by residual outflow or early-day showers/thunderstorms. Gradual height falls will occur during the day over the region as the upper ridge shifts west, with strong heating expected across OH and PA. Shear will again be weak but diurnal storms may produce locally strong or damaging gusts from portions of PA eastward into southern New England. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE NORTHEAST...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible over the northern Plains to upper Mississippi Valley on Friday, with a few strong storms over parts of the Northeast. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a strong upper ridge will remain over the eastern CONUS, but will begin to retrograde toward the MS Valley and southern Plains late in the period. Meanwhile, the upper trough over the Great Basin will eject northeastward across the northern Rockies during the day, with cooling aloft and 40 kt midlevel winds over MT through 00Z. This wave will continue across the northern Plains and toward the upper MS Valley into Saturday morning, with increasing winds aloft north of the upper ridge. Moderate west/northwest flow aloft will develop across New England, as the eastern Canada trough rounds the upper ridge. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the Southeast and into the southern Plains, with a warm front lifting north across the upper MS Valley. Weak low pressure will exist from WY into NE during the day, moving in to MN overnight with a front/wind shift across the Dakotas. The warm sector there will favor strong storms as instability develops ahead of the upper wave. To the east, a weak front will drop south across southern New England into PA, providing a focus for daytime thunderstorms as the air mass remains unstable. ...Upper MS Valley... Daytime heating and moisture advection will result in destabilization across the northern Plains south of the warm front. Southerly winds will increase during the day over NE and SD near the surface low, with strengthening convergence as the cold front arrives from the west overnight. A few strong elevated storms could produce marginal hail over northern MN north of the warm front, but the greatest severe potential will develop during the late afternoon from western NE into SD. Shear will not be particularly strong but it will be sufficient to support a few cells capable of hail, with increasing wind damage potential through the evening as the trough continues east. A Slight Risk may be needed in later updates as predictability increases. ...Northeast... A moist and unstable air mass will remain across the area south of a front, which may be reinforced by residual outflow or early-day showers/thunderstorms. Gradual height falls will occur during the day over the region as the upper ridge shifts west, with strong heating expected across OH and PA. Shear will again be weak but diurnal storms may produce locally strong or damaging gusts from portions of PA eastward into southern New England. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A steady westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona on Thursday. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas were included at this time but this risk will be monitored in future outlooks. ..Thornton.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A steady westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona on Thursday. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas were included at this time but this risk will be monitored in future outlooks. ..Thornton.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A steady westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona on Thursday. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas were included at this time but this risk will be monitored in future outlooks. ..Thornton.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A steady westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona on Thursday. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas were included at this time but this risk will be monitored in future outlooks. ..Thornton.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico today, bringing isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some wetting rains will occur across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of the deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible where relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds 10-15 mph (occasionally around 20 mph). Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph will develop this afternoon overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ..Thornton.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more