Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms remain possible this evening from parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the central/southern High Plains. Large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats, but a low risk for a tornado persists across southwest Kansas. ...01z Update... A pronounced upper trough is evident in water-vapor imagery over the northern High Plains early this evening. This feature will eject across the Dakotas, through the upper Red River Valley later tonight, as a 500mb speed max translates across northwest MN into ON. While troughing lags across the southwestern US, any disturbances that would affect the central/southern High Plains are weak, and not particularly evident in satellite imagery. Surface cold front is currently the primary focus, and delineation, for robust convection. This boundary stretches from the upper Great Lakes southwest across southeast NE into the OK Panhandle. Strongest boundary-layer heating is located along the southern extent of this wind shift, and 00z sounding from DDC exhibits very steep lapse rates with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Some capping is evident near 2km AGL, but this is likely negligible near the front where surface temperatures are in the mid 90s. A tornado or two could be noted with storms early this evening before boundary layer cools further. Otherwise, the strongest convection may continue to pose some risk for hail/wind for the next several hours. While large-scale forcing is a bit stronger across the upper MS Valley, storm mode is primarily larger clusters with one MCS noted across the Lake Superior region and a secondary MCS advancing east across IA. Locally strong winds and perhaps some hail may be observed with this activity. ..Darrow.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms remain possible this evening from parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the central/southern High Plains. Large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats, but a low risk for a tornado persists across southwest Kansas. ...01z Update... A pronounced upper trough is evident in water-vapor imagery over the northern High Plains early this evening. This feature will eject across the Dakotas, through the upper Red River Valley later tonight, as a 500mb speed max translates across northwest MN into ON. While troughing lags across the southwestern US, any disturbances that would affect the central/southern High Plains are weak, and not particularly evident in satellite imagery. Surface cold front is currently the primary focus, and delineation, for robust convection. This boundary stretches from the upper Great Lakes southwest across southeast NE into the OK Panhandle. Strongest boundary-layer heating is located along the southern extent of this wind shift, and 00z sounding from DDC exhibits very steep lapse rates with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Some capping is evident near 2km AGL, but this is likely negligible near the front where surface temperatures are in the mid 90s. A tornado or two could be noted with storms early this evening before boundary layer cools further. Otherwise, the strongest convection may continue to pose some risk for hail/wind for the next several hours. While large-scale forcing is a bit stronger across the upper MS Valley, storm mode is primarily larger clusters with one MCS noted across the Lake Superior region and a secondary MCS advancing east across IA. Locally strong winds and perhaps some hail may be observed with this activity. ..Darrow.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms remain possible this evening from parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the central/southern High Plains. Large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats, but a low risk for a tornado persists across southwest Kansas. ...01z Update... A pronounced upper trough is evident in water-vapor imagery over the northern High Plains early this evening. This feature will eject across the Dakotas, through the upper Red River Valley later tonight, as a 500mb speed max translates across northwest MN into ON. While troughing lags across the southwestern US, any disturbances that would affect the central/southern High Plains are weak, and not particularly evident in satellite imagery. Surface cold front is currently the primary focus, and delineation, for robust convection. This boundary stretches from the upper Great Lakes southwest across southeast NE into the OK Panhandle. Strongest boundary-layer heating is located along the southern extent of this wind shift, and 00z sounding from DDC exhibits very steep lapse rates with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Some capping is evident near 2km AGL, but this is likely negligible near the front where surface temperatures are in the mid 90s. A tornado or two could be noted with storms early this evening before boundary layer cools further. Otherwise, the strongest convection may continue to pose some risk for hail/wind for the next several hours. While large-scale forcing is a bit stronger across the upper MS Valley, storm mode is primarily larger clusters with one MCS noted across the Lake Superior region and a secondary MCS advancing east across IA. Locally strong winds and perhaps some hail may be observed with this activity. ..Darrow.. 06/19/2024 Read more

WW 0433 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 433 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW OTG TO 20 E RWF TO 15 NE STC TO 40 W DLH TO 20 NNW BFW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1329 ..THORNTON..06/19/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 433 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC003-013-015-017-019-025-033-037-043-047-053-059-063-065-079- 085-091-095-103-115-123-131-139-141-143-147-161-163-165-171- 190140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANOKA BLUE EARTH BROWN CARLTON CARVER CHISAGO COTTONWOOD DAKOTA FARIBAULT FREEBORN HENNEPIN ISANTI JACKSON KANABEC LE SUEUR MCLEOD MARTIN MILLE LACS NICOLLET PINE RAMSEY RICE SCOTT SHERBURNE SIBLEY STEELE WASECA WASHINGTON WATONWAN WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0433 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 433 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW OTG TO 20 E RWF TO 15 NE STC TO 40 W DLH TO 20 NNW BFW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1329 ..THORNTON..06/19/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 433 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC003-013-015-017-019-025-033-037-043-047-053-059-063-065-079- 085-091-095-103-115-123-131-139-141-143-147-161-163-165-171- 190140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANOKA BLUE EARTH BROWN CARLTON CARVER CHISAGO COTTONWOOD DAKOTA FARIBAULT FREEBORN HENNEPIN ISANTI JACKSON KANABEC LE SUEUR MCLEOD MARTIN MILLE LACS NICOLLET PINE RAMSEY RICE SCOTT SHERBURNE SIBLEY STEELE WASECA WASHINGTON WATONWAN WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0433 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 433 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW OTG TO 20 E RWF TO 15 NE STC TO 40 W DLH TO 20 NNW BFW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1329 ..THORNTON..06/19/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 433 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC003-013-015-017-019-025-033-037-043-047-053-059-063-065-079- 085-091-095-103-115-123-131-139-141-143-147-161-163-165-171- 190140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANOKA BLUE EARTH BROWN CARLTON CARVER CHISAGO COTTONWOOD DAKOTA FARIBAULT FREEBORN HENNEPIN ISANTI JACKSON KANABEC LE SUEUR MCLEOD MARTIN MILLE LACS NICOLLET PINE RAMSEY RICE SCOTT SHERBURNE SIBLEY STEELE WASECA WASHINGTON WATONWAN WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 433 TORNADO MN 181825Z - 190100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 433 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 125 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Minnesota * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 125 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along and ahead of a cold front should pose a threat for a few tornadoes, damaging winds up to 60-70 mph, and large hail around 1-2 inches in diameter as they spread east-northeastward this afternoon and early evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northwest of Ely MN to 30 miles east southeast of Worthington MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0434 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 434 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE RSL TO 40 ESE HSI TO 15 ENE EAR TO 30 W OLU TO 20 ENE LNK TO 30 NW DNS TO 15 E SLB TO 20 E OTG. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1328 PORTIONS OF WW 434 WILL BE EXTENDED IN TIME BEYOND 01Z. ..DEAN..06/19/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 434 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC009-025-027-029-033-047-063-071-081-085-091-093-109-129-137- 147-151-155-161-165-187-189-195-197-190140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDUBON CALHOUN CARROLL CASS CERRO GORDO CRAWFORD EMMET FREMONT HANCOCK HARRISON HUMBOLDT IDA KOSSUTH MILLS MONTGOMERY PALO ALTO POCAHONTAS POTTAWATTAMIE SAC SHELBY WEBSTER WINNEBAGO WORTH WRIGHT KSC027-029-117-123-143-157-201-190140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0434 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 434 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE RSL TO 40 ESE HSI TO 15 ENE EAR TO 30 W OLU TO 20 ENE LNK TO 30 NW DNS TO 15 E SLB TO 20 E OTG. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1328 PORTIONS OF WW 434 WILL BE EXTENDED IN TIME BEYOND 01Z. ..DEAN..06/19/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 434 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC009-025-027-029-033-047-063-071-081-085-091-093-109-129-137- 147-151-155-161-165-187-189-195-197-190140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDUBON CALHOUN CARROLL CASS CERRO GORDO CRAWFORD EMMET FREMONT HANCOCK HARRISON HUMBOLDT IDA KOSSUTH MILLS MONTGOMERY PALO ALTO POCAHONTAS POTTAWATTAMIE SAC SHELBY WEBSTER WINNEBAGO WORTH WRIGHT KSC027-029-117-123-143-157-201-190140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0434 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 434 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE RSL TO 40 ESE HSI TO 15 ENE EAR TO 30 W OLU TO 20 ENE LNK TO 30 NW DNS TO 15 E SLB TO 20 E OTG. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1328 PORTIONS OF WW 434 WILL BE EXTENDED IN TIME BEYOND 01Z. ..DEAN..06/19/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 434 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC009-025-027-029-033-047-063-071-081-085-091-093-109-129-137- 147-151-155-161-165-187-189-195-197-190140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDUBON CALHOUN CARROLL CASS CERRO GORDO CRAWFORD EMMET FREMONT HANCOCK HARRISON HUMBOLDT IDA KOSSUTH MILLS MONTGOMERY PALO ALTO POCAHONTAS POTTAWATTAMIE SAC SHELBY WEBSTER WINNEBAGO WORTH WRIGHT KSC027-029-117-123-143-157-201-190140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 434 SEVERE TSTM IA KS NE SD 181845Z - 190100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 434 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Northern Iowa Northern Kansas Southern and Eastern Nebraska Far Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to intensify along and east of a cold front this afternoon, while posing a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds around 60-70 mph along with 1-2 inch diameter hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles north northeast of Spencer IA to 30 miles southwest of Concordia KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 433... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1326 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 1326 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0525 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...Parts of the OK/TX Panhandles Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 182225Z - 190030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are possible by early evening. DISCUSSION...Convection continues to backbuild late this afternoon along a cold front across southwest KS, with increasing cumulus noted into parts of the central OK Panhandle. With time, deep convection could develop into the OK and northern TX Panhandles, within a very warm, well-mixed, and moderate to strongly unstable environment. Deep-layer shear is rather marginal across the region (generally 20-30 kt), but a few stronger multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell could develop with time, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. A brief landspout will also be possible near the front/dryline intersection across the central OK Panhandle. Farther south, uncertainty increases regarding the coverage of storm development into early evening across parts of the central/southern TX Panhandle. However, a subtle southern-stream shortwave trough could aid in development of a couple stronger storms capable of hail and isolated severe gusts. Watch issuance is possible if observational trends begin to support the potential for multiple severe storms across the region into this evening. ..Dean/Edwards.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 35650281 36910194 36920076 36530062 35910072 34850110 34460149 34410174 34330315 35650281 Read more

MD 1327 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 434... FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NE INTO WESTERN IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1327 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0551 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...Parts of eastern NE into western IA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434... Valid 182251Z - 190015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for severe gusts and isolated hail will continue into this evening. DISCUSSION...An extensive thunderstorm band is ongoing from northwest IA into eastern NE. There has been a tendency for these storms to be slightly anafrontal, due to generally front-parallel deep-layer flow and only marginal deep-layer shear. However, a few embedded clusters have begun to accelerate eastward and keep pace with the front, which could result in an increasing threat of strong to severe gusts as storms approach the Omaha/Lincoln areas and move into a larger portion of northwest IA. Otherwise, moderate to strong buoyancy will support potential for isolated hail with the strongest embedded cells. ..Dean.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID... LAT...LON 40219801 40449784 40769739 41079736 41559702 41879628 42499608 42699502 42559489 41619516 40619599 40229644 40129678 40109746 40219801 Read more

WW 0435 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 435 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 WSW EHA TO 10 ENE GCK TO 25 SW HLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1328 ..DEAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 435 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-025-033-047-051-053-057-069-081-083-097-105-113-119- 135-145-151-155-159-165-167-169-175-185-195-190040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS ELLSWORTH FORD GRAY HASKELL HODGEMAN KIOWA LINCOLN MCPHERSON MEADE NESS PAWNEE PRATT RENO RICE RUSH RUSSELL SALINE SEWARD STAFFORD TREGO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0435 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 435 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 WSW EHA TO 10 ENE GCK TO 25 SW HLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1328 ..DEAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 435 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-025-033-047-051-053-057-069-081-083-097-105-113-119- 135-145-151-155-159-165-167-169-175-185-195-190040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS ELLSWORTH FORD GRAY HASKELL HODGEMAN KIOWA LINCOLN MCPHERSON MEADE NESS PAWNEE PRATT RENO RICE RUSH RUSSELL SALINE SEWARD STAFFORD TREGO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1328 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 434...435... FOR SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1328 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...Southwest into central KS Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434...435... Valid 182336Z - 190100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434, 435 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for severe gusts, hail, and a brief tornado may persist into mid evening. DISCUSSION...A frontal band of strong to severe storms from southwest into central KS has been gradually shifting eastward late this afternoon into the early evening. While some consolidation of storms has occurred, multiple embedded cells persist, which will continue to pose a threat of isolated hail. Transient low-level mesocyclones continue to be noted on radar across southwest KS, and some threat for a brief tornado could persist within the vorticity-rich environment near the front. However, a general tendency for strengthening and expanding outflows may result in severe gusts becoming an increasingly prominent hazard across the region, as noted with a recent 60 kt gust in Russell, KS. A continued tendency toward backbuilding and redevelopment may continue through the evening across southwest KS, with a southerly low-level jet expected to remain focused across that region. Farther north, there may be some tendency for gradual weakening with time later this evening from north-central into northeast KS. However, some severe threat could persist beyond the 01Z expiration time of WW 434, potentially necessitating local watch extension or new watch issuance. ..Dean/Edwards.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 37120136 38130013 38749942 39899791 39929740 39859715 39549709 39079736 38009866 37569941 37269986 37030047 37120136 Read more

MD 1327 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 434... FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NE INTO WESTERN IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1327 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0551 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...Parts of eastern NE into western IA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434... Valid 182251Z - 190015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for severe gusts and isolated hail will continue into this evening. DISCUSSION...An extensive thunderstorm band is ongoing from northwest IA into eastern NE. There has been a tendency for these storms to be slightly anafrontal, due to generally front-parallel deep-layer flow and only marginal deep-layer shear. However, a few embedded clusters have begun to accelerate eastward and keep pace with the front, which could result in an increasing threat of strong to severe gusts as storms approach the Omaha/Lincoln areas and move into a larger portion of northwest IA. Otherwise, moderate to strong buoyancy will support potential for isolated hail with the strongest embedded cells. ..Dean.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID... LAT...LON 40219801 40449784 40769739 41079736 41559702 41879628 42499608 42699502 42559489 41619516 40619599 40229644 40129678 40109746 40219801 Read more

MD 1326 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 1326 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0525 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...Parts of the OK/TX Panhandles Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 182225Z - 190030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are possible by early evening. DISCUSSION...Convection continues to backbuild late this afternoon along a cold front across southwest KS, with increasing cumulus noted into parts of the central OK Panhandle. With time, deep convection could develop into the OK and northern TX Panhandles, within a very warm, well-mixed, and moderate to strongly unstable environment. Deep-layer shear is rather marginal across the region (generally 20-30 kt), but a few stronger multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell could develop with time, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. A brief landspout will also be possible near the front/dryline intersection across the central OK Panhandle. Farther south, uncertainty increases regarding the coverage of storm development into early evening across parts of the central/southern TX Panhandle. However, a subtle southern-stream shortwave trough could aid in development of a couple stronger storms capable of hail and isolated severe gusts. Watch issuance is possible if observational trends begin to support the potential for multiple severe storms across the region into this evening. ..Dean/Edwards.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 35650281 36910194 36920076 36530062 35910072 34850110 34460149 34410174 34330315 35650281 Read more

WW 0435 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 435 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 WSW EHA TO 10 ENE GCK TO 25 SW HLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1328 ..DEAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 435 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-025-033-047-051-053-057-069-081-083-097-105-113-119- 135-145-151-155-159-165-167-169-175-185-195-190040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS ELLSWORTH FORD GRAY HASKELL HODGEMAN KIOWA LINCOLN MCPHERSON MEADE NESS PAWNEE PRATT RENO RICE RUSH RUSSELL SALINE SEWARD STAFFORD TREGO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0433 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 433 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE BKX TO 20 ENE AXN TO 25 W BRD TO 50 NNE ELO. ..THORNTON..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 433 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-003-009-013-015-017-019-023-025-031-033-035-037-043-047- 053-059-063-065-067-075-079-083-085-091-093-095-097-101-103-105- 115-123-127-129-131-137-139-141-143-145-147-153-161-163-165-171- 173-182340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN ANOKA BENTON BLUE EARTH BROWN CARLTON CARVER CHIPPEWA CHISAGO COOK COTTONWOOD CROW WING DAKOTA FARIBAULT FREEBORN HENNEPIN ISANTI JACKSON KANABEC KANDIYOHI LAKE LE SUEUR LYON MCLEOD MARTIN MEEKER MILLE LACS MORRISON MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES PINE RAMSEY REDWOOD RENVILLE RICE ST. LOUIS SCOTT SHERBURNE SIBLEY STEARNS STEELE TODD WASECA WASHINGTON WATONWAN WRIGHT YELLOW MEDICINE Read more