Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an expansive mid/upper-level ridge over the West, a belt of moderate midlevel south-southwesterly flow will overspread portions of northern CA and western OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. Overall, the breezy surface winds appear too localized for an Elevated area, owing to a weak surface pressure gradient across the area. ..Weinman.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an expansive mid/upper-level ridge over the West, a belt of moderate midlevel south-southwesterly flow will overspread portions of northern CA and western OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. Overall, the breezy surface winds appear too localized for an Elevated area, owing to a weak surface pressure gradient across the area. ..Weinman.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an expansive mid/upper-level ridge over the West, a belt of moderate midlevel south-southwesterly flow will overspread portions of northern CA and western OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. Overall, the breezy surface winds appear too localized for an Elevated area, owing to a weak surface pressure gradient across the area. ..Weinman.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an expansive mid/upper-level ridge over the West, a belt of moderate midlevel south-southwesterly flow will overspread portions of northern CA and western OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. Overall, the breezy surface winds appear too localized for an Elevated area, owing to a weak surface pressure gradient across the area. ..Weinman.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an expansive mid/upper-level ridge over the West, a belt of moderate midlevel south-southwesterly flow will overspread portions of northern CA and western OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. Overall, the breezy surface winds appear too localized for an Elevated area, owing to a weak surface pressure gradient across the area. ..Weinman.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an expansive mid/upper-level ridge over the West, a belt of moderate midlevel south-southwesterly flow will overspread portions of northern CA and western OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. Overall, the breezy surface winds appear too localized for an Elevated area, owing to a weak surface pressure gradient across the area. ..Weinman.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an expansive mid/upper-level ridge over the West, a belt of moderate midlevel south-southwesterly flow will overspread portions of northern CA and western OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. Overall, the breezy surface winds appear too localized for an Elevated area, owing to a weak surface pressure gradient across the area. ..Weinman.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while a related cold front moves east-southeastward across the central Plains. Warm, dry, and breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across portions of the central High Plains during the afternoon -- yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Farther west, a large-scale ridge will build across the western CONUS, favoring warm/dry conditions. However, generally weak surface winds (outside of terrain-favored areas) precludes fire-weather highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while a related cold front moves east-southeastward across the central Plains. Warm, dry, and breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across portions of the central High Plains during the afternoon -- yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Farther west, a large-scale ridge will build across the western CONUS, favoring warm/dry conditions. However, generally weak surface winds (outside of terrain-favored areas) precludes fire-weather highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while a related cold front moves east-southeastward across the central Plains. Warm, dry, and breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across portions of the central High Plains during the afternoon -- yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Farther west, a large-scale ridge will build across the western CONUS, favoring warm/dry conditions. However, generally weak surface winds (outside of terrain-favored areas) precludes fire-weather highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while a related cold front moves east-southeastward across the central Plains. Warm, dry, and breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across portions of the central High Plains during the afternoon -- yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Farther west, a large-scale ridge will build across the western CONUS, favoring warm/dry conditions. However, generally weak surface winds (outside of terrain-favored areas) precludes fire-weather highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while a related cold front moves east-southeastward across the central Plains. Warm, dry, and breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across portions of the central High Plains during the afternoon -- yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Farther west, a large-scale ridge will build across the western CONUS, favoring warm/dry conditions. However, generally weak surface winds (outside of terrain-favored areas) precludes fire-weather highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while a related cold front moves east-southeastward across the central Plains. Warm, dry, and breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across portions of the central High Plains during the afternoon -- yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Farther west, a large-scale ridge will build across the western CONUS, favoring warm/dry conditions. However, generally weak surface winds (outside of terrain-favored areas) precludes fire-weather highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while a related cold front moves east-southeastward across the central Plains. Warm, dry, and breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across portions of the central High Plains during the afternoon -- yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Farther west, a large-scale ridge will build across the western CONUS, favoring warm/dry conditions. However, generally weak surface winds (outside of terrain-favored areas) precludes fire-weather highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while a related cold front moves east-southeastward across the central Plains. Warm, dry, and breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across portions of the central High Plains during the afternoon -- yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Farther west, a large-scale ridge will build across the western CONUS, favoring warm/dry conditions. However, generally weak surface winds (outside of terrain-favored areas) precludes fire-weather highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while a related cold front moves east-southeastward across the central Plains. Warm, dry, and breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across portions of the central High Plains during the afternoon -- yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Farther west, a large-scale ridge will build across the western CONUS, favoring warm/dry conditions. However, generally weak surface winds (outside of terrain-favored areas) precludes fire-weather highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while a related cold front moves east-southeastward across the central Plains. Warm, dry, and breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across portions of the central High Plains during the afternoon -- yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Farther west, a large-scale ridge will build across the western CONUS, favoring warm/dry conditions. However, generally weak surface winds (outside of terrain-favored areas) precludes fire-weather highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while a related cold front moves east-southeastward across the central Plains. Warm, dry, and breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across portions of the central High Plains during the afternoon -- yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Farther west, a large-scale ridge will build across the western CONUS, favoring warm/dry conditions. However, generally weak surface winds (outside of terrain-favored areas) precludes fire-weather highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while a related cold front moves east-southeastward across the central Plains. Warm, dry, and breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across portions of the central High Plains during the afternoon -- yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Farther west, a large-scale ridge will build across the western CONUS, favoring warm/dry conditions. However, generally weak surface winds (outside of terrain-favored areas) precludes fire-weather highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1759 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1759 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Nebraska...Western Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 310417Z - 310615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm initiation may occur in the 04-07z period across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. If this scenario occurs, parameters would suggest a risk of large hail and damaging winds. A severe thunderstorm watch could be needed. DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis shows very moist low-level conditions in place across eastern NE/western IA, with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s. This, combined with very steep mid-level lapse rates are yielding large CAPE values of 3000-4500 J/kg. Low-level convergence is weak, but a 30-40 knot southwesterly low-level jet will focus warm advection and lift across the region, likely aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms. 00z CAM guidance varies on placement and timing of this development, but recent IR images indicate patches of CU/TCU in the region that could mature into thunderstorms within the next few hours. Sufficient westerly flow aloft will help to organize storms into rotating/bowing structures. If this scenario unfolds, a severe thunderstorm watch may be needed. ..Hart.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF... LAT...LON 42709800 42419530 41879309 40989306 40819422 41189667 41729808 42219835 42709800 Read more