Severe Storms

WW 0433 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 433 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE BKX TO 20 ENE AXN TO 25 W BRD TO 50 NNE ELO. ..THORNTON..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 433 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-003-009-013-015-017-019-023-025-031-033-035-037-043-047- 053-059-063-065-067-075-079-083-085-091-093-095-097-101-103-105- 115-123-127-129-131-137-139-141-143-145-147-153-161-163-165-171- 173-182340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN ANOKA BENTON BLUE EARTH BROWN CARLTON CARVER CHIPPEWA CHISAGO COOK COTTONWOOD CROW WING DAKOTA FARIBAULT FREEBORN HENNEPIN ISANTI JACKSON KANABEC KANDIYOHI LAKE LE SUEUR LYON MCLEOD MARTIN MEEKER MILLE LACS MORRISON MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES PINE RAMSEY REDWOOD RENVILLE RICE ST. LOUIS SCOTT SHERBURNE SIBLEY STEARNS STEELE TODD WASECA WASHINGTON WATONWAN WRIGHT YELLOW MEDICINE Read more

WW 433 TORNADO MN 181825Z - 190100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 433 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 125 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Minnesota * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 125 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along and ahead of a cold front should pose a threat for a few tornadoes, damaging winds up to 60-70 mph, and large hail around 1-2 inches in diameter as they spread east-northeastward this afternoon and early evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northwest of Ely MN to 30 miles east southeast of Worthington MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Gleason Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jun 18 22:15:14 UTC 2024.

MD 1324 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 434... FOR NORTH-CENTRAL KS TO WESTERN IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1324 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...north-central KS to western IA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434... Valid 182040Z - 182215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434 continues. SUMMARY...A mix of isolated severe hail and wind should transition to predominately wind over the next few hours into early evening from north-central Kansas into western Iowa. A tornado or two will also remain possible. DISCUSSION...A thin, but increasingly extensive line of thunderstorms is ongoing along a southeast-moving cold front from northwest IA through north-central KS. Several cores within this developing line have had MRMS MESH values reaching into the 1-1.75 inch diameter range. Bulk of this activity thus far appears to be forming on the immediate cool side of the front. As further cold pool strengthening occurs in the next couple hours, some acceleration of clusters eastward should occur along the KS-NE border into western IA. This should foster an uptick in wind gust intensity to around 55-70 mph before 00Z. ..Grams.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... LAT...LON 41429741 42319642 42749613 42919575 42859532 42429525 41469578 40779646 39519772 39119887 39239934 40169862 41119770 41429741 Read more

WW 0435 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 435 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1325 ..DEAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 435 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-025-033-047-051-053-055-057-067-069-081-083-097-101- 105-113-119-129-135-145-151-155-159-165-167-169-175-185-189-195- 182240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS ELLSWORTH FINNEY FORD GRANT GRAY HASKELL HODGEMAN KIOWA LANE LINCOLN MCPHERSON MEADE MORTON NESS PAWNEE PRATT RENO RICE RUSH RUSSELL SALINE SEWARD STAFFORD STEVENS TREGO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0435 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 435 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1325 ..DEAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 435 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-025-033-047-051-053-055-057-067-069-081-083-097-101- 105-113-119-129-135-145-151-155-159-165-167-169-175-185-189-195- 182240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS ELLSWORTH FINNEY FORD GRANT GRAY HASKELL HODGEMAN KIOWA LANE LINCOLN MCPHERSON MEADE MORTON NESS PAWNEE PRATT RENO RICE RUSH RUSSELL SALINE SEWARD STAFFORD STEVENS TREGO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1325 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 435... FOR WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1325 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...West Central Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 435... Valid 182058Z - 182200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 435 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for large hail, damaging winds, and some landspout tornadoes continues for the watch area. DISCUSSION...The severe thunderstorm threat continues across portions of west-central Kansas as a cold front progresses slowly southeastward. Additional storm development is expected further south and west along the cold front this afternoon. The primary threat is for large hail and damaging wind gusts, as initially superceullar storms begin to grow upscale into linear segments. Additionally, SPC Mesoanalysis indicates ongoing supercells in west-central Kansas are located in a region of large surface vorticity along the frontal boundary. With relatively slow boundary and storm motions supportive of long residence times, enhanced stretching is favorable for landspout tornado activity. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA... LAT...LON 37040175 37540137 37850105 38240073 38660051 39080012 39539974 39619942 39459902 38949905 38109960 37619991 37160043 36990091 36950151 37040175 Read more

MD 1323 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 1323 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...portions of far northwestern Pennsylvania into far southwestern New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 182024Z - 182200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A localized concentration of damaging gusts is possible over the next few hours along the PA/NY border region. Given the spatially and temporally confined nature of the damaging gust threat, a WW issuance remains unlikely. DISCUSSION...An organized cluster of thunderstorms with a history of damaging gusts (and at least one measured 50+ kt gust) has developed over far northeastern OH. This cluster is slowly propagating northeast as convective outflow spreads to the southeast, overturning the ambient airmass in the process. Weak deep-layer west-southwesterly flow pivoting around the Mid-Atlantic anticyclone suggests that the ongoing cluster, should it persist, will continue moving east-northeast. As such, the northeast flank of the ongoing cluster may not gust out and undercut convection for at least a few more hours. In this time-frame, 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE will support stronger storm cores capable of producing a focused corridor locally damaging gusts. However, the damaging gusts should be contained within a small area, and convection may become outflow dominant and undercut sooner than expected. A WW issuance remains unlikely in the short-term, but convective trends will continue to be monitored for the possibility of greater upscale growth and subsequent damaging wind potential. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 41608068 42008008 42387943 42487866 42177834 41667850 41387912 41257994 41278051 41338069 41608068 Read more

WW 435 SEVERE TSTM KS 181940Z - 190300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 435 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Central Kansas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to strengthen along a cold front this afternoon and evening while posing a threat for large to very large hail up to around 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter and severe wind gusts of 60-80 mph. The threat for severe winds may increase through the evening if one or more bowing clusters develops and spreads eastward into central Kansas. A tornado or two also appears possible, especially if any supercells can persist across southwest Kansas this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northeast of Russell KS to 35 miles east of Liberal KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 433...WW 434... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1322 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 433... FOR CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1322 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...central to northeast MN Concerning...Tornado Watch 433... Valid 182018Z - 182145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 433 continues. SUMMARY...Primary tornado threat within WW 433 into early evening appears to exist across central to northeast Minnesota with semi-discrete supercells near the surface warm front. DISCUSSION...More prominent, deeper convection within WW 433 has been centered across west-central to northeast MN. Multiple, low-level supercells have been noted along the surface warm front thus far from central MN northeastward. Additional supercells may develop farther south-southwest with modified 18Z MPX sounding indicative of MLCAPE from 2000-2500 J/kg and 0-1 km SRH around 200 m2/s2. With weak effective shear above the LCL, tornado and damaging wind should remain the primary threats as hail magnitudes remain marginal. These threats will likely focus through early evening from the Brainerd Lakes to the Iron Range and Arrowhead regions. ..Grams.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... LAT...LON 47239393 47779219 48069146 48179108 48089063 47979043 47669095 47179179 46869228 46289254 45979311 45729482 45799522 46189542 46669459 47239393 Read more

WW 0433 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 433 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE BKX TO 25 NE AXN TO 45 NNE ELO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1322 ..THORNTON..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 433 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-003-009-013-015-017-019-023-025-031-033-035-037-043-047- 053-059-063-065-067-075-079-081-083-085-091-093-095-097-101-103- 105-111-115-117-121-123-127-129-131-133-137-139-141-143-145-147- 151-153-161-163-165-171-173-182240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN ANOKA BENTON BLUE EARTH BROWN CARLTON CARVER CHIPPEWA CHISAGO COOK COTTONWOOD CROW WING DAKOTA FARIBAULT FREEBORN HENNEPIN ISANTI JACKSON KANABEC KANDIYOHI LAKE LE SUEUR LINCOLN LYON MCLEOD MARTIN MEEKER MILLE LACS MORRISON MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES OTTER TAIL PINE PIPESTONE POPE RAMSEY REDWOOD RENVILLE RICE ROCK ST. LOUIS SCOTT SHERBURNE SIBLEY Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week, a mid to upper-level ridge will encompass most of the eastern CONUS, while an elongated, filling trough resides over the Pacific states and Great Basin. For D3/Thursday, increasing mid-level moisture preceding a tropical system is expected to spread even further west/northwest into the Southwest. A few isolated dry lightning strikes still appear possible on the western extent of this deeper moisture, mainly in and around the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau near the AZ/NM border. This is also where wind speeds and RH may briefly reach critical thresholds, although confidence is too low to include low critical probabilities at this time. For D4/Friday-D5/Saturday, mid to upper-level ridging will start to impede upon the Southwest and Great Basin. Although warm and dry conditions will return, weaker flow aloft and fairly insignificant pressure gradients across receptive fuels will limit overall critical probabilities during this time. Through late this weekend, a mid to upper jet in the base of a shortwave trough is expected to traverse WA, OR, ID, and MT by D6/Sunday, with an associated Pacific cold front moving onshore. Increasing westerly, downslope flow across the Cascades of WA will accompany these features. Recent fire activity, and anticipated decreasing fuel moisture across this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall, suggest receptive fuels are becoming more common there. In addition, further south into southeast ID, a prefrontal, deeply mixed air mass will likely aid in momentum transfer of west/southwest flow across the Upper Snake River Plain. Fuels may be slightly less receptive here, but low critical probabilities seem appropriate considering upcoming rapid warming trends preceding this weekend. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week, a mid to upper-level ridge will encompass most of the eastern CONUS, while an elongated, filling trough resides over the Pacific states and Great Basin. For D3/Thursday, increasing mid-level moisture preceding a tropical system is expected to spread even further west/northwest into the Southwest. A few isolated dry lightning strikes still appear possible on the western extent of this deeper moisture, mainly in and around the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau near the AZ/NM border. This is also where wind speeds and RH may briefly reach critical thresholds, although confidence is too low to include low critical probabilities at this time. For D4/Friday-D5/Saturday, mid to upper-level ridging will start to impede upon the Southwest and Great Basin. Although warm and dry conditions will return, weaker flow aloft and fairly insignificant pressure gradients across receptive fuels will limit overall critical probabilities during this time. Through late this weekend, a mid to upper jet in the base of a shortwave trough is expected to traverse WA, OR, ID, and MT by D6/Sunday, with an associated Pacific cold front moving onshore. Increasing westerly, downslope flow across the Cascades of WA will accompany these features. Recent fire activity, and anticipated decreasing fuel moisture across this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall, suggest receptive fuels are becoming more common there. In addition, further south into southeast ID, a prefrontal, deeply mixed air mass will likely aid in momentum transfer of west/southwest flow across the Upper Snake River Plain. Fuels may be slightly less receptive here, but low critical probabilities seem appropriate considering upcoming rapid warming trends preceding this weekend. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week, a mid to upper-level ridge will encompass most of the eastern CONUS, while an elongated, filling trough resides over the Pacific states and Great Basin. For D3/Thursday, increasing mid-level moisture preceding a tropical system is expected to spread even further west/northwest into the Southwest. A few isolated dry lightning strikes still appear possible on the western extent of this deeper moisture, mainly in and around the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau near the AZ/NM border. This is also where wind speeds and RH may briefly reach critical thresholds, although confidence is too low to include low critical probabilities at this time. For D4/Friday-D5/Saturday, mid to upper-level ridging will start to impede upon the Southwest and Great Basin. Although warm and dry conditions will return, weaker flow aloft and fairly insignificant pressure gradients across receptive fuels will limit overall critical probabilities during this time. Through late this weekend, a mid to upper jet in the base of a shortwave trough is expected to traverse WA, OR, ID, and MT by D6/Sunday, with an associated Pacific cold front moving onshore. Increasing westerly, downslope flow across the Cascades of WA will accompany these features. Recent fire activity, and anticipated decreasing fuel moisture across this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall, suggest receptive fuels are becoming more common there. In addition, further south into southeast ID, a prefrontal, deeply mixed air mass will likely aid in momentum transfer of west/southwest flow across the Upper Snake River Plain. Fuels may be slightly less receptive here, but low critical probabilities seem appropriate considering upcoming rapid warming trends preceding this weekend. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week, a mid to upper-level ridge will encompass most of the eastern CONUS, while an elongated, filling trough resides over the Pacific states and Great Basin. For D3/Thursday, increasing mid-level moisture preceding a tropical system is expected to spread even further west/northwest into the Southwest. A few isolated dry lightning strikes still appear possible on the western extent of this deeper moisture, mainly in and around the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau near the AZ/NM border. This is also where wind speeds and RH may briefly reach critical thresholds, although confidence is too low to include low critical probabilities at this time. For D4/Friday-D5/Saturday, mid to upper-level ridging will start to impede upon the Southwest and Great Basin. Although warm and dry conditions will return, weaker flow aloft and fairly insignificant pressure gradients across receptive fuels will limit overall critical probabilities during this time. Through late this weekend, a mid to upper jet in the base of a shortwave trough is expected to traverse WA, OR, ID, and MT by D6/Sunday, with an associated Pacific cold front moving onshore. Increasing westerly, downslope flow across the Cascades of WA will accompany these features. Recent fire activity, and anticipated decreasing fuel moisture across this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall, suggest receptive fuels are becoming more common there. In addition, further south into southeast ID, a prefrontal, deeply mixed air mass will likely aid in momentum transfer of west/southwest flow across the Upper Snake River Plain. Fuels may be slightly less receptive here, but low critical probabilities seem appropriate considering upcoming rapid warming trends preceding this weekend. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week, a mid to upper-level ridge will encompass most of the eastern CONUS, while an elongated, filling trough resides over the Pacific states and Great Basin. For D3/Thursday, increasing mid-level moisture preceding a tropical system is expected to spread even further west/northwest into the Southwest. A few isolated dry lightning strikes still appear possible on the western extent of this deeper moisture, mainly in and around the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau near the AZ/NM border. This is also where wind speeds and RH may briefly reach critical thresholds, although confidence is too low to include low critical probabilities at this time. For D4/Friday-D5/Saturday, mid to upper-level ridging will start to impede upon the Southwest and Great Basin. Although warm and dry conditions will return, weaker flow aloft and fairly insignificant pressure gradients across receptive fuels will limit overall critical probabilities during this time. Through late this weekend, a mid to upper jet in the base of a shortwave trough is expected to traverse WA, OR, ID, and MT by D6/Sunday, with an associated Pacific cold front moving onshore. Increasing westerly, downslope flow across the Cascades of WA will accompany these features. Recent fire activity, and anticipated decreasing fuel moisture across this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall, suggest receptive fuels are becoming more common there. In addition, further south into southeast ID, a prefrontal, deeply mixed air mass will likely aid in momentum transfer of west/southwest flow across the Upper Snake River Plain. Fuels may be slightly less receptive here, but low critical probabilities seem appropriate considering upcoming rapid warming trends preceding this weekend. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week, a mid to upper-level ridge will encompass most of the eastern CONUS, while an elongated, filling trough resides over the Pacific states and Great Basin. For D3/Thursday, increasing mid-level moisture preceding a tropical system is expected to spread even further west/northwest into the Southwest. A few isolated dry lightning strikes still appear possible on the western extent of this deeper moisture, mainly in and around the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau near the AZ/NM border. This is also where wind speeds and RH may briefly reach critical thresholds, although confidence is too low to include low critical probabilities at this time. For D4/Friday-D5/Saturday, mid to upper-level ridging will start to impede upon the Southwest and Great Basin. Although warm and dry conditions will return, weaker flow aloft and fairly insignificant pressure gradients across receptive fuels will limit overall critical probabilities during this time. Through late this weekend, a mid to upper jet in the base of a shortwave trough is expected to traverse WA, OR, ID, and MT by D6/Sunday, with an associated Pacific cold front moving onshore. Increasing westerly, downslope flow across the Cascades of WA will accompany these features. Recent fire activity, and anticipated decreasing fuel moisture across this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall, suggest receptive fuels are becoming more common there. In addition, further south into southeast ID, a prefrontal, deeply mixed air mass will likely aid in momentum transfer of west/southwest flow across the Upper Snake River Plain. Fuels may be slightly less receptive here, but low critical probabilities seem appropriate considering upcoming rapid warming trends preceding this weekend. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week, a mid to upper-level ridge will encompass most of the eastern CONUS, while an elongated, filling trough resides over the Pacific states and Great Basin. For D3/Thursday, increasing mid-level moisture preceding a tropical system is expected to spread even further west/northwest into the Southwest. A few isolated dry lightning strikes still appear possible on the western extent of this deeper moisture, mainly in and around the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau near the AZ/NM border. This is also where wind speeds and RH may briefly reach critical thresholds, although confidence is too low to include low critical probabilities at this time. For D4/Friday-D5/Saturday, mid to upper-level ridging will start to impede upon the Southwest and Great Basin. Although warm and dry conditions will return, weaker flow aloft and fairly insignificant pressure gradients across receptive fuels will limit overall critical probabilities during this time. Through late this weekend, a mid to upper jet in the base of a shortwave trough is expected to traverse WA, OR, ID, and MT by D6/Sunday, with an associated Pacific cold front moving onshore. Increasing westerly, downslope flow across the Cascades of WA will accompany these features. Recent fire activity, and anticipated decreasing fuel moisture across this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall, suggest receptive fuels are becoming more common there. In addition, further south into southeast ID, a prefrontal, deeply mixed air mass will likely aid in momentum transfer of west/southwest flow across the Upper Snake River Plain. Fuels may be slightly less receptive here, but low critical probabilities seem appropriate considering upcoming rapid warming trends preceding this weekend. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week, a mid to upper-level ridge will encompass most of the eastern CONUS, while an elongated, filling trough resides over the Pacific states and Great Basin. For D3/Thursday, increasing mid-level moisture preceding a tropical system is expected to spread even further west/northwest into the Southwest. A few isolated dry lightning strikes still appear possible on the western extent of this deeper moisture, mainly in and around the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau near the AZ/NM border. This is also where wind speeds and RH may briefly reach critical thresholds, although confidence is too low to include low critical probabilities at this time. For D4/Friday-D5/Saturday, mid to upper-level ridging will start to impede upon the Southwest and Great Basin. Although warm and dry conditions will return, weaker flow aloft and fairly insignificant pressure gradients across receptive fuels will limit overall critical probabilities during this time. Through late this weekend, a mid to upper jet in the base of a shortwave trough is expected to traverse WA, OR, ID, and MT by D6/Sunday, with an associated Pacific cold front moving onshore. Increasing westerly, downslope flow across the Cascades of WA will accompany these features. Recent fire activity, and anticipated decreasing fuel moisture across this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall, suggest receptive fuels are becoming more common there. In addition, further south into southeast ID, a prefrontal, deeply mixed air mass will likely aid in momentum transfer of west/southwest flow across the Upper Snake River Plain. Fuels may be slightly less receptive here, but low critical probabilities seem appropriate considering upcoming rapid warming trends preceding this weekend. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week, a mid to upper-level ridge will encompass most of the eastern CONUS, while an elongated, filling trough resides over the Pacific states and Great Basin. For D3/Thursday, increasing mid-level moisture preceding a tropical system is expected to spread even further west/northwest into the Southwest. A few isolated dry lightning strikes still appear possible on the western extent of this deeper moisture, mainly in and around the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau near the AZ/NM border. This is also where wind speeds and RH may briefly reach critical thresholds, although confidence is too low to include low critical probabilities at this time. For D4/Friday-D5/Saturday, mid to upper-level ridging will start to impede upon the Southwest and Great Basin. Although warm and dry conditions will return, weaker flow aloft and fairly insignificant pressure gradients across receptive fuels will limit overall critical probabilities during this time. Through late this weekend, a mid to upper jet in the base of a shortwave trough is expected to traverse WA, OR, ID, and MT by D6/Sunday, with an associated Pacific cold front moving onshore. Increasing westerly, downslope flow across the Cascades of WA will accompany these features. Recent fire activity, and anticipated decreasing fuel moisture across this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall, suggest receptive fuels are becoming more common there. In addition, further south into southeast ID, a prefrontal, deeply mixed air mass will likely aid in momentum transfer of west/southwest flow across the Upper Snake River Plain. Fuels may be slightly less receptive here, but low critical probabilities seem appropriate considering upcoming rapid warming trends preceding this weekend. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more