Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Scattered severe storms are also expected over parts of the central High Plains. ...Northeast... Upper anticyclone currently centered over the middle Atlantic will gradually build west across the CONUS during the day1 period. As this occurs, some flattening of the height field is expected over southern QC into New England. Modest 500mb flow will extend along the international border, but much weaker mid-level winds will be noted over the lower Great Lakes into southern New England. This stronger flow over Canada will encourage a surface cold front to advance south into northern ME, arcing west along the international border into southern lower MI by 18z, with subsequent southeast movement expected across the Northeast into the early evening. This boundary will serve as the focus for convection later today as surface temperatures quickly soar through the 80s into the lower 90s. Additionally, while deep-layer shear will not be particularly strong along the northern fringe of the upper High, PW values are seasonally moist with 1.5-2 inches expected south of the frontal zone. Damaging winds are the primary risk with convection today. ...Central High Plains... Weak 12hr mid-level height rises are forecast across much of the interior western US through early evening as an upper trough repositions itself from WA/OR into CA. This will ensure a corridor of modest southwesterly flow at mid-levels from the Four Corners region into the central High Plains. Within this flow a few weak disturbances may track across the central Rockies into the Plains. Each of these features could encourage robust convection. Latest guidance suggests a weak lee cyclone will evolve over northeast CO by late afternoon in response to one of these features. LLJ is also forecast to respond across western KS into SD. As a result, an easterly boundary-layer component will be noted across the NE Panhandle into eastern WY. NAM forecast sounding for CYS at 22z exhibits negligible inhibition but MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg with 35kt surface-6km bulk shear. HREF guidance strongly suggests convection will evolve over the higher terrain of south-central WY/CO fairly early, then propagate downstream, growing upscale into a possible MCS within the warm-advection zone. Convection should advance into the central Plains after sunset aided by strengthening LLJ. Initial storm mode should be supercellular and large hail is expected. Severe wind gusts could materialize along the leading edge of the MCS if it matures as expected. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Scattered severe storms are also expected over parts of the central High Plains. ...Northeast... Upper anticyclone currently centered over the middle Atlantic will gradually build west across the CONUS during the day1 period. As this occurs, some flattening of the height field is expected over southern QC into New England. Modest 500mb flow will extend along the international border, but much weaker mid-level winds will be noted over the lower Great Lakes into southern New England. This stronger flow over Canada will encourage a surface cold front to advance south into northern ME, arcing west along the international border into southern lower MI by 18z, with subsequent southeast movement expected across the Northeast into the early evening. This boundary will serve as the focus for convection later today as surface temperatures quickly soar through the 80s into the lower 90s. Additionally, while deep-layer shear will not be particularly strong along the northern fringe of the upper High, PW values are seasonally moist with 1.5-2 inches expected south of the frontal zone. Damaging winds are the primary risk with convection today. ...Central High Plains... Weak 12hr mid-level height rises are forecast across much of the interior western US through early evening as an upper trough repositions itself from WA/OR into CA. This will ensure a corridor of modest southwesterly flow at mid-levels from the Four Corners region into the central High Plains. Within this flow a few weak disturbances may track across the central Rockies into the Plains. Each of these features could encourage robust convection. Latest guidance suggests a weak lee cyclone will evolve over northeast CO by late afternoon in response to one of these features. LLJ is also forecast to respond across western KS into SD. As a result, an easterly boundary-layer component will be noted across the NE Panhandle into eastern WY. NAM forecast sounding for CYS at 22z exhibits negligible inhibition but MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg with 35kt surface-6km bulk shear. HREF guidance strongly suggests convection will evolve over the higher terrain of south-central WY/CO fairly early, then propagate downstream, growing upscale into a possible MCS within the warm-advection zone. Convection should advance into the central Plains after sunset aided by strengthening LLJ. Initial storm mode should be supercellular and large hail is expected. Severe wind gusts could materialize along the leading edge of the MCS if it matures as expected. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Scattered severe storms are also expected over parts of the central High Plains. ...Northeast... Upper anticyclone currently centered over the middle Atlantic will gradually build west across the CONUS during the day1 period. As this occurs, some flattening of the height field is expected over southern QC into New England. Modest 500mb flow will extend along the international border, but much weaker mid-level winds will be noted over the lower Great Lakes into southern New England. This stronger flow over Canada will encourage a surface cold front to advance south into northern ME, arcing west along the international border into southern lower MI by 18z, with subsequent southeast movement expected across the Northeast into the early evening. This boundary will serve as the focus for convection later today as surface temperatures quickly soar through the 80s into the lower 90s. Additionally, while deep-layer shear will not be particularly strong along the northern fringe of the upper High, PW values are seasonally moist with 1.5-2 inches expected south of the frontal zone. Damaging winds are the primary risk with convection today. ...Central High Plains... Weak 12hr mid-level height rises are forecast across much of the interior western US through early evening as an upper trough repositions itself from WA/OR into CA. This will ensure a corridor of modest southwesterly flow at mid-levels from the Four Corners region into the central High Plains. Within this flow a few weak disturbances may track across the central Rockies into the Plains. Each of these features could encourage robust convection. Latest guidance suggests a weak lee cyclone will evolve over northeast CO by late afternoon in response to one of these features. LLJ is also forecast to respond across western KS into SD. As a result, an easterly boundary-layer component will be noted across the NE Panhandle into eastern WY. NAM forecast sounding for CYS at 22z exhibits negligible inhibition but MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg with 35kt surface-6km bulk shear. HREF guidance strongly suggests convection will evolve over the higher terrain of south-central WY/CO fairly early, then propagate downstream, growing upscale into a possible MCS within the warm-advection zone. Convection should advance into the central Plains after sunset aided by strengthening LLJ. Initial storm mode should be supercellular and large hail is expected. Severe wind gusts could materialize along the leading edge of the MCS if it matures as expected. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Scattered severe storms are also expected over parts of the central High Plains. ...Northeast... Upper anticyclone currently centered over the middle Atlantic will gradually build west across the CONUS during the day1 period. As this occurs, some flattening of the height field is expected over southern QC into New England. Modest 500mb flow will extend along the international border, but much weaker mid-level winds will be noted over the lower Great Lakes into southern New England. This stronger flow over Canada will encourage a surface cold front to advance south into northern ME, arcing west along the international border into southern lower MI by 18z, with subsequent southeast movement expected across the Northeast into the early evening. This boundary will serve as the focus for convection later today as surface temperatures quickly soar through the 80s into the lower 90s. Additionally, while deep-layer shear will not be particularly strong along the northern fringe of the upper High, PW values are seasonally moist with 1.5-2 inches expected south of the frontal zone. Damaging winds are the primary risk with convection today. ...Central High Plains... Weak 12hr mid-level height rises are forecast across much of the interior western US through early evening as an upper trough repositions itself from WA/OR into CA. This will ensure a corridor of modest southwesterly flow at mid-levels from the Four Corners region into the central High Plains. Within this flow a few weak disturbances may track across the central Rockies into the Plains. Each of these features could encourage robust convection. Latest guidance suggests a weak lee cyclone will evolve over northeast CO by late afternoon in response to one of these features. LLJ is also forecast to respond across western KS into SD. As a result, an easterly boundary-layer component will be noted across the NE Panhandle into eastern WY. NAM forecast sounding for CYS at 22z exhibits negligible inhibition but MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg with 35kt surface-6km bulk shear. HREF guidance strongly suggests convection will evolve over the higher terrain of south-central WY/CO fairly early, then propagate downstream, growing upscale into a possible MCS within the warm-advection zone. Convection should advance into the central Plains after sunset aided by strengthening LLJ. Initial storm mode should be supercellular and large hail is expected. Severe wind gusts could materialize along the leading edge of the MCS if it matures as expected. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/20/2024 Read more

WW 0437 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 437 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE COT TO 10 N VCT. ..KERR..06/20/24 ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 437 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-047-057-061-131-175-215-239-247-249-261-273-283-297- 311-321-355-391-409-427-469-479-489-505-200540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE BROOKS CALHOUN CAMERON DUVAL GOLIAD HIDALGO JACKSON JIM HOGG JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG LA SALLE LIVE OAK MCMULLEN MATAGORDA NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO STARR VICTORIA WEBB WILLACY ZAPATA GMZ130-132-135-150-155-231-232-236-237-250-255-330-350-200540- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO Read more

WW 0437 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 437 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE COT TO 10 N VCT. ..KERR..06/20/24 ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 437 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-047-057-061-131-175-215-239-247-249-261-273-283-297- 311-321-355-391-409-427-469-479-489-505-200540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE BROOKS CALHOUN CAMERON DUVAL GOLIAD HIDALGO JACKSON JIM HOGG JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG LA SALLE LIVE OAK MCMULLEN MATAGORDA NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO STARR VICTORIA WEBB WILLACY ZAPATA GMZ130-132-135-150-155-231-232-236-237-250-255-330-350-200540- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO Read more

WW 0437 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 437 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE COT TO 10 N VCT. ..KERR..06/20/24 ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 437 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-047-057-061-131-175-215-239-247-249-261-273-283-297- 311-321-355-391-409-427-469-479-489-505-200540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE BROOKS CALHOUN CAMERON DUVAL GOLIAD HIDALGO JACKSON JIM HOGG JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG LA SALLE LIVE OAK MCMULLEN MATAGORDA NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO STARR VICTORIA WEBB WILLACY ZAPATA GMZ130-132-135-150-155-231-232-236-237-250-255-330-350-200540- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO Read more

WW 0436 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 436 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ALM TO 45 SSW ROW. REMAING VALID PORTION OF WW 436 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 20/03Z. ..EDWARDS..06/20/24 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 436 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC019-035-047-200300- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GUADALUPE OTERO SAN MIGUEL TXC141-229-200300- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EL PASO HUDSPETH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0436 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 436 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ALM TO 45 SSW ROW. REMAING VALID PORTION OF WW 436 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 20/03Z. ..EDWARDS..06/20/24 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 436 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC019-035-047-200300- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GUADALUPE OTERO SAN MIGUEL TXC141-229-200300- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EL PASO HUDSPETH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0436 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 436 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ALM TO 45 SSW ROW. REMAING VALID PORTION OF WW 436 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 20/03Z. ..EDWARDS..06/20/24 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 436 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC019-035-047-200300- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GUADALUPE OTERO SAN MIGUEL TXC141-229-200300- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EL PASO HUDSPETH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0436 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 436 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ALM TO 45 SSW ROW. REMAING VALID PORTION OF WW 436 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 20/03Z. ..EDWARDS..06/20/24 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 436 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC019-035-047-200300- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GUADALUPE OTERO SAN MIGUEL TXC141-229-200300- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EL PASO HUDSPETH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0436 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 436 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ALM TO 45 SSW ROW. REMAING VALID PORTION OF WW 436 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 20/03Z. ..EDWARDS..06/20/24 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 436 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC019-035-047-200300- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GUADALUPE OTERO SAN MIGUEL TXC141-229-200300- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EL PASO HUDSPETH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0436 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 436 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ALM TO 45 SSW ROW. REMAING VALID PORTION OF WW 436 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 20/03Z. ..EDWARDS..06/20/24 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 436 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC019-035-047-200300- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GUADALUPE OTERO SAN MIGUEL TXC141-229-200300- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EL PASO HUDSPETH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 436 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 192055Z - 200300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 436 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North-Central and South-Central New Mexico Far West Texas * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop and intensify this afternoon into the evening over the Watch area. A few supercells and stronger multicells will potentially be capable of a risk for large hail (1 to 2 inches in diameter) and severe gusts (60 to 70 mph). The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northeast of Santa Fe NM to 120 miles south southeast of Alamogordo NM. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 26015. ...Smith Read more

WW 0437 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 437 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..06/20/24 ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 437 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-013-025-047-057-061-123-131-175-215-239-247-249-255-261- 273-283-297-311-321-355-391-409-427-469-479-489-505-200340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS ATASCOSA BEE BROOKS CALHOUN CAMERON DEWITT DUVAL GOLIAD HIDALGO JACKSON JIM HOGG JIM WELLS KARNES KENEDY KLEBERG LA SALLE LIVE OAK MCMULLEN MATAGORDA NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO STARR VICTORIA WEBB WILLACY ZAPATA GMZ130-132-135-150-155-231-232-236-237-250-255-330-350-200340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO Read more

WW 0437 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 437 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..06/20/24 ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 437 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-013-025-047-057-061-123-131-175-215-239-247-249-255-261- 273-283-297-311-321-355-391-409-427-469-479-489-505-200340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS ATASCOSA BEE BROOKS CALHOUN CAMERON DEWITT DUVAL GOLIAD HIDALGO JACKSON JIM HOGG JIM WELLS KARNES KENEDY KLEBERG LA SALLE LIVE OAK MCMULLEN MATAGORDA NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO STARR VICTORIA WEBB WILLACY ZAPATA GMZ130-132-135-150-155-231-232-236-237-250-255-330-350-200340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO Read more

WW 0436 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 436 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E ONM TO 40 N LVS. ..THORNTON..06/20/24 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 436 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC019-027-035-047-200240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GUADALUPE LINCOLN OTERO SAN MIGUEL TXC141-229-200240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EL PASO HUDSPETH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0437 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 437 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..06/20/24 ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 437 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-013-025-047-057-061-123-131-175-215-239-247-249-255-261- 273-283-297-311-321-355-391-409-427-469-479-489-505-200240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS ATASCOSA BEE BROOKS CALHOUN CAMERON DEWITT DUVAL GOLIAD HIDALGO JACKSON JIM HOGG JIM WELLS KARNES KENEDY KLEBERG LA SALLE LIVE OAK MCMULLEN MATAGORDA NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO STARR VICTORIA WEBB WILLACY ZAPATA GMZ130-132-135-150-155-231-232-236-237-250-255-330-350-200240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO Read more

MD 1337 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 436... FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1337 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Areas affected...southern New Mexico into far western Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 436... Valid 200044Z - 200145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 436 continues. SUMMARY...Large-hail and damaging-wind risk continues in WW436. DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorm activity continues within the southern portion of WW434. Storms within the northern portion of the watch have generally produced hail around 1-1.5 inches, through isolated hail up to 2 in was recorded near Torrance County, NM. A few more isolated cells continue within the northern fringes of the watch, but the air mass further north has largely been overturned by convection. The best instability remains from the Sacramento Mountains southward to the Guadalupe Mountains and into far western Texas, where surface objective analysis indicates around 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 40-50 kts of deep layer shear. Recent gusts of 60-70 mph have been reported. Within this environment, the greatest short-term wind/hail threat will likely continue. ..Thornton.. 06/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 31980658 32780666 32880665 33360637 33560579 33600522 33550492 33490477 33390464 33220454 31630492 31320522 31350593 31980658 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across south Texas tonight in association with Tropical Storm Alberto. Otherwise, scattered strong to locally severe thunderstorms remain possible over the New Mexico region. ...01z Update... Tropical Storm Alberto is propagating slowly west toward the Mexican Coast, and the center of circulation is forecast to track inland later tonight about 22N, or around 250 miles south of Brownsville TX. Widespread convection is rotating inland across coastal South TX, and low-level shear is forecast to increase through the evening hours. 00z sounding from BRO exhibited surface-3km SRH around 230 m2/s2, and this should strengthen as 850mb flow intensifies along the north side of the cyclone. Tornado threat should gradually increase with inland-moving supercells. Farther northwest, scattered strong/severe slow-moving thunderstorms are propagating north across south-central NM. Another small cluster of storms is drifting northeast off the higher terrain to the east of ABQ. Gusty winds and some hail threat linger with this activity until the boundary layer cools later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/20/2024 Read more