Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z An upper-level ridge will build over the Southwest US late this week into this weekend. Expansive thunderstorm activity is expected across the Southwest Friday and Saturday due to remnant moisture from the westward-moving Tropical Storm Alberto off the TX/Mexico coast this afternoon. Through time, thunderstorm activity is expected to become more isolated into early next week. No IsoDryT probabilities have been added, as the robust nature of the moisture push should result in mostly wet thunderstorms. The threat for dry and windy conditions is expected to increase early next week, as an upper trough traverses the Pacific Northwest. A cold front is expected to cross the Cascades with dry and breezy westerly flow in its wake. A mix of dry/cured and green fuels are present on the eastern Cascade foothills and the Columbia Basin. These marginally dry fuels are the primary precluding factor to greater Critical probabilities. However, some large-fire threat is expected, especially if a fire can begin/establish in the drier fuels. In addition to the Columbia Basin, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the Snake River Plain as increasing mid-level flow overspreads the dry and well-mixed airmass. Beyond this weekend, the ridge is expected to maintain across the Southwest with building heat and drying fuels. The pattern will remain favorable for shortwave trough passages through the Northwest, which will be monitored for increased fire weather potential. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z An upper-level ridge will build over the Southwest US late this week into this weekend. Expansive thunderstorm activity is expected across the Southwest Friday and Saturday due to remnant moisture from the westward-moving Tropical Storm Alberto off the TX/Mexico coast this afternoon. Through time, thunderstorm activity is expected to become more isolated into early next week. No IsoDryT probabilities have been added, as the robust nature of the moisture push should result in mostly wet thunderstorms. The threat for dry and windy conditions is expected to increase early next week, as an upper trough traverses the Pacific Northwest. A cold front is expected to cross the Cascades with dry and breezy westerly flow in its wake. A mix of dry/cured and green fuels are present on the eastern Cascade foothills and the Columbia Basin. These marginally dry fuels are the primary precluding factor to greater Critical probabilities. However, some large-fire threat is expected, especially if a fire can begin/establish in the drier fuels. In addition to the Columbia Basin, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the Snake River Plain as increasing mid-level flow overspreads the dry and well-mixed airmass. Beyond this weekend, the ridge is expected to maintain across the Southwest with building heat and drying fuels. The pattern will remain favorable for shortwave trough passages through the Northwest, which will be monitored for increased fire weather potential. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z An upper-level ridge will build over the Southwest US late this week into this weekend. Expansive thunderstorm activity is expected across the Southwest Friday and Saturday due to remnant moisture from the westward-moving Tropical Storm Alberto off the TX/Mexico coast this afternoon. Through time, thunderstorm activity is expected to become more isolated into early next week. No IsoDryT probabilities have been added, as the robust nature of the moisture push should result in mostly wet thunderstorms. The threat for dry and windy conditions is expected to increase early next week, as an upper trough traverses the Pacific Northwest. A cold front is expected to cross the Cascades with dry and breezy westerly flow in its wake. A mix of dry/cured and green fuels are present on the eastern Cascade foothills and the Columbia Basin. These marginally dry fuels are the primary precluding factor to greater Critical probabilities. However, some large-fire threat is expected, especially if a fire can begin/establish in the drier fuels. In addition to the Columbia Basin, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the Snake River Plain as increasing mid-level flow overspreads the dry and well-mixed airmass. Beyond this weekend, the ridge is expected to maintain across the Southwest with building heat and drying fuels. The pattern will remain favorable for shortwave trough passages through the Northwest, which will be monitored for increased fire weather potential. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z An upper-level ridge will build over the Southwest US late this week into this weekend. Expansive thunderstorm activity is expected across the Southwest Friday and Saturday due to remnant moisture from the westward-moving Tropical Storm Alberto off the TX/Mexico coast this afternoon. Through time, thunderstorm activity is expected to become more isolated into early next week. No IsoDryT probabilities have been added, as the robust nature of the moisture push should result in mostly wet thunderstorms. The threat for dry and windy conditions is expected to increase early next week, as an upper trough traverses the Pacific Northwest. A cold front is expected to cross the Cascades with dry and breezy westerly flow in its wake. A mix of dry/cured and green fuels are present on the eastern Cascade foothills and the Columbia Basin. These marginally dry fuels are the primary precluding factor to greater Critical probabilities. However, some large-fire threat is expected, especially if a fire can begin/establish in the drier fuels. In addition to the Columbia Basin, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the Snake River Plain as increasing mid-level flow overspreads the dry and well-mixed airmass. Beyond this weekend, the ridge is expected to maintain across the Southwest with building heat and drying fuels. The pattern will remain favorable for shortwave trough passages through the Northwest, which will be monitored for increased fire weather potential. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z An upper-level ridge will build over the Southwest US late this week into this weekend. Expansive thunderstorm activity is expected across the Southwest Friday and Saturday due to remnant moisture from the westward-moving Tropical Storm Alberto off the TX/Mexico coast this afternoon. Through time, thunderstorm activity is expected to become more isolated into early next week. No IsoDryT probabilities have been added, as the robust nature of the moisture push should result in mostly wet thunderstorms. The threat for dry and windy conditions is expected to increase early next week, as an upper trough traverses the Pacific Northwest. A cold front is expected to cross the Cascades with dry and breezy westerly flow in its wake. A mix of dry/cured and green fuels are present on the eastern Cascade foothills and the Columbia Basin. These marginally dry fuels are the primary precluding factor to greater Critical probabilities. However, some large-fire threat is expected, especially if a fire can begin/establish in the drier fuels. In addition to the Columbia Basin, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the Snake River Plain as increasing mid-level flow overspreads the dry and well-mixed airmass. Beyond this weekend, the ridge is expected to maintain across the Southwest with building heat and drying fuels. The pattern will remain favorable for shortwave trough passages through the Northwest, which will be monitored for increased fire weather potential. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z An upper-level ridge will build over the Southwest US late this week into this weekend. Expansive thunderstorm activity is expected across the Southwest Friday and Saturday due to remnant moisture from the westward-moving Tropical Storm Alberto off the TX/Mexico coast this afternoon. Through time, thunderstorm activity is expected to become more isolated into early next week. No IsoDryT probabilities have been added, as the robust nature of the moisture push should result in mostly wet thunderstorms. The threat for dry and windy conditions is expected to increase early next week, as an upper trough traverses the Pacific Northwest. A cold front is expected to cross the Cascades with dry and breezy westerly flow in its wake. A mix of dry/cured and green fuels are present on the eastern Cascade foothills and the Columbia Basin. These marginally dry fuels are the primary precluding factor to greater Critical probabilities. However, some large-fire threat is expected, especially if a fire can begin/establish in the drier fuels. In addition to the Columbia Basin, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the Snake River Plain as increasing mid-level flow overspreads the dry and well-mixed airmass. Beyond this weekend, the ridge is expected to maintain across the Southwest with building heat and drying fuels. The pattern will remain favorable for shortwave trough passages through the Northwest, which will be monitored for increased fire weather potential. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0436 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0436 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH TEXAS...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across south and southeast Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered strong to locally severe/damaging gusts are possible over portions of the southern Great Lakes this afternoon into the early evening. ...Discussion... No substantive changes appear necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time. Forecast reasoning and expectations as laid out in prior discussions remain valid at this time. ..Goss.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an East Coast upper ridge while a broad mid-level trough resides over the West. The upper ridge will build westward into the mid MS Valley as the primary belt of westerlies retreats north of the international border. This westward expansion will encourage the tropical system over the western Gulf basin to move into northeast Mexico, considerably south of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower Great Lakes to northern New England... While upper ridging will dominate this region, scattered convection will once again develop from portions of the Ohio Valley northeastward into New England, as surface temperatures warm through the upper 80s the lower 90s F. Area 88D VADs show a slightly stronger belt of mid-level southwesterly flow over the southern Great Lakes, which may act to influence storm organization and potential storm intensity/severe risk later this afternoon. Model forecast soundings show a seasonably moist/unstable airmass (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) across much of this region. Strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard with the stronger storms, especially if small clustering of storms can occur. Based on the latest model guidance and visible satellite observations, this appears most likely across parts of northern OH into perhaps southeast Lower MI. ...South/southeast Texas... Despite an initially poor lapse rate/weakly unstable environment sampled with the 12 UTC Corpus Christi and Brownsville raobs, a moist-tropical airmass will continue to advect into the region on the northern periphery of Alberto, with MLCAPE likely rising into the 500-1500 J/kg range near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX by later this afternoon. Model guidance continues to indicate low-level shear to increase, which will result in hodographs enlarging by mid-late afternoon into tonight across the coastal plain of TX (0-1 km SRH (100-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). The likely cellular storm mode will also potentially be slightly more favorable for a tornado risk, considering the environment scenario described above. As such, have increased tornado probabilities to 5 percent (Slight Risk) near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest details on Tropical Storm Alberto. ...Southern High Plains... Radar/surface composite analysis late this morning shows a persistent area of weak convection north of a south-southwest moving outflow boundary from the TX Panhandle into northeast NM. Considerable lingering clouds and related convection will probably limit instability from near the TX/NM border and areas east. However, west of the outflow appreciable moisture and heating will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Isolated large hail/severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before diminishing by mid evening. ...Northern Missouri/eastern Iowa to southern Wisconsin... To the east-northeast of lingering early morning convection across northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri, cloud cover should generally diminish today near the outflow augmented southwest/northeast-oriented synoptic front across the region. Potentially aided by an MCV, thunderstorms should redevelop and intensify this afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes, with as much as 30 kt of effective shear maximized immediately near the synoptic front. Isolated instances of localized wind damage could occur. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH TEXAS...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across south and southeast Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered strong to locally severe/damaging gusts are possible over portions of the southern Great Lakes this afternoon into the early evening. ...Discussion... No substantive changes appear necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time. Forecast reasoning and expectations as laid out in prior discussions remain valid at this time. ..Goss.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an East Coast upper ridge while a broad mid-level trough resides over the West. The upper ridge will build westward into the mid MS Valley as the primary belt of westerlies retreats north of the international border. This westward expansion will encourage the tropical system over the western Gulf basin to move into northeast Mexico, considerably south of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower Great Lakes to northern New England... While upper ridging will dominate this region, scattered convection will once again develop from portions of the Ohio Valley northeastward into New England, as surface temperatures warm through the upper 80s the lower 90s F. Area 88D VADs show a slightly stronger belt of mid-level southwesterly flow over the southern Great Lakes, which may act to influence storm organization and potential storm intensity/severe risk later this afternoon. Model forecast soundings show a seasonably moist/unstable airmass (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) across much of this region. Strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard with the stronger storms, especially if small clustering of storms can occur. Based on the latest model guidance and visible satellite observations, this appears most likely across parts of northern OH into perhaps southeast Lower MI. ...South/southeast Texas... Despite an initially poor lapse rate/weakly unstable environment sampled with the 12 UTC Corpus Christi and Brownsville raobs, a moist-tropical airmass will continue to advect into the region on the northern periphery of Alberto, with MLCAPE likely rising into the 500-1500 J/kg range near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX by later this afternoon. Model guidance continues to indicate low-level shear to increase, which will result in hodographs enlarging by mid-late afternoon into tonight across the coastal plain of TX (0-1 km SRH (100-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). The likely cellular storm mode will also potentially be slightly more favorable for a tornado risk, considering the environment scenario described above. As such, have increased tornado probabilities to 5 percent (Slight Risk) near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest details on Tropical Storm Alberto. ...Southern High Plains... Radar/surface composite analysis late this morning shows a persistent area of weak convection north of a south-southwest moving outflow boundary from the TX Panhandle into northeast NM. Considerable lingering clouds and related convection will probably limit instability from near the TX/NM border and areas east. However, west of the outflow appreciable moisture and heating will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Isolated large hail/severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before diminishing by mid evening. ...Northern Missouri/eastern Iowa to southern Wisconsin... To the east-northeast of lingering early morning convection across northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri, cloud cover should generally diminish today near the outflow augmented southwest/northeast-oriented synoptic front across the region. Potentially aided by an MCV, thunderstorms should redevelop and intensify this afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes, with as much as 30 kt of effective shear maximized immediately near the synoptic front. Isolated instances of localized wind damage could occur. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH TEXAS...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across south and southeast Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered strong to locally severe/damaging gusts are possible over portions of the southern Great Lakes this afternoon into the early evening. ...Discussion... No substantive changes appear necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time. Forecast reasoning and expectations as laid out in prior discussions remain valid at this time. ..Goss.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an East Coast upper ridge while a broad mid-level trough resides over the West. The upper ridge will build westward into the mid MS Valley as the primary belt of westerlies retreats north of the international border. This westward expansion will encourage the tropical system over the western Gulf basin to move into northeast Mexico, considerably south of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower Great Lakes to northern New England... While upper ridging will dominate this region, scattered convection will once again develop from portions of the Ohio Valley northeastward into New England, as surface temperatures warm through the upper 80s the lower 90s F. Area 88D VADs show a slightly stronger belt of mid-level southwesterly flow over the southern Great Lakes, which may act to influence storm organization and potential storm intensity/severe risk later this afternoon. Model forecast soundings show a seasonably moist/unstable airmass (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) across much of this region. Strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard with the stronger storms, especially if small clustering of storms can occur. Based on the latest model guidance and visible satellite observations, this appears most likely across parts of northern OH into perhaps southeast Lower MI. ...South/southeast Texas... Despite an initially poor lapse rate/weakly unstable environment sampled with the 12 UTC Corpus Christi and Brownsville raobs, a moist-tropical airmass will continue to advect into the region on the northern periphery of Alberto, with MLCAPE likely rising into the 500-1500 J/kg range near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX by later this afternoon. Model guidance continues to indicate low-level shear to increase, which will result in hodographs enlarging by mid-late afternoon into tonight across the coastal plain of TX (0-1 km SRH (100-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). The likely cellular storm mode will also potentially be slightly more favorable for a tornado risk, considering the environment scenario described above. As such, have increased tornado probabilities to 5 percent (Slight Risk) near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest details on Tropical Storm Alberto. ...Southern High Plains... Radar/surface composite analysis late this morning shows a persistent area of weak convection north of a south-southwest moving outflow boundary from the TX Panhandle into northeast NM. Considerable lingering clouds and related convection will probably limit instability from near the TX/NM border and areas east. However, west of the outflow appreciable moisture and heating will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Isolated large hail/severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before diminishing by mid evening. ...Northern Missouri/eastern Iowa to southern Wisconsin... To the east-northeast of lingering early morning convection across northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri, cloud cover should generally diminish today near the outflow augmented southwest/northeast-oriented synoptic front across the region. Potentially aided by an MCV, thunderstorms should redevelop and intensify this afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes, with as much as 30 kt of effective shear maximized immediately near the synoptic front. Isolated instances of localized wind damage could occur. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH TEXAS...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across south and southeast Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered strong to locally severe/damaging gusts are possible over portions of the southern Great Lakes this afternoon into the early evening. ...Discussion... No substantive changes appear necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time. Forecast reasoning and expectations as laid out in prior discussions remain valid at this time. ..Goss.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an East Coast upper ridge while a broad mid-level trough resides over the West. The upper ridge will build westward into the mid MS Valley as the primary belt of westerlies retreats north of the international border. This westward expansion will encourage the tropical system over the western Gulf basin to move into northeast Mexico, considerably south of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower Great Lakes to northern New England... While upper ridging will dominate this region, scattered convection will once again develop from portions of the Ohio Valley northeastward into New England, as surface temperatures warm through the upper 80s the lower 90s F. Area 88D VADs show a slightly stronger belt of mid-level southwesterly flow over the southern Great Lakes, which may act to influence storm organization and potential storm intensity/severe risk later this afternoon. Model forecast soundings show a seasonably moist/unstable airmass (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) across much of this region. Strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard with the stronger storms, especially if small clustering of storms can occur. Based on the latest model guidance and visible satellite observations, this appears most likely across parts of northern OH into perhaps southeast Lower MI. ...South/southeast Texas... Despite an initially poor lapse rate/weakly unstable environment sampled with the 12 UTC Corpus Christi and Brownsville raobs, a moist-tropical airmass will continue to advect into the region on the northern periphery of Alberto, with MLCAPE likely rising into the 500-1500 J/kg range near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX by later this afternoon. Model guidance continues to indicate low-level shear to increase, which will result in hodographs enlarging by mid-late afternoon into tonight across the coastal plain of TX (0-1 km SRH (100-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). The likely cellular storm mode will also potentially be slightly more favorable for a tornado risk, considering the environment scenario described above. As such, have increased tornado probabilities to 5 percent (Slight Risk) near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest details on Tropical Storm Alberto. ...Southern High Plains... Radar/surface composite analysis late this morning shows a persistent area of weak convection north of a south-southwest moving outflow boundary from the TX Panhandle into northeast NM. Considerable lingering clouds and related convection will probably limit instability from near the TX/NM border and areas east. However, west of the outflow appreciable moisture and heating will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Isolated large hail/severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before diminishing by mid evening. ...Northern Missouri/eastern Iowa to southern Wisconsin... To the east-northeast of lingering early morning convection across northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri, cloud cover should generally diminish today near the outflow augmented southwest/northeast-oriented synoptic front across the region. Potentially aided by an MCV, thunderstorms should redevelop and intensify this afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes, with as much as 30 kt of effective shear maximized immediately near the synoptic front. Isolated instances of localized wind damage could occur. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH TEXAS...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across south and southeast Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered strong to locally severe/damaging gusts are possible over portions of the southern Great Lakes this afternoon into the early evening. ...Discussion... No substantive changes appear necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time. Forecast reasoning and expectations as laid out in prior discussions remain valid at this time. ..Goss.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an East Coast upper ridge while a broad mid-level trough resides over the West. The upper ridge will build westward into the mid MS Valley as the primary belt of westerlies retreats north of the international border. This westward expansion will encourage the tropical system over the western Gulf basin to move into northeast Mexico, considerably south of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower Great Lakes to northern New England... While upper ridging will dominate this region, scattered convection will once again develop from portions of the Ohio Valley northeastward into New England, as surface temperatures warm through the upper 80s the lower 90s F. Area 88D VADs show a slightly stronger belt of mid-level southwesterly flow over the southern Great Lakes, which may act to influence storm organization and potential storm intensity/severe risk later this afternoon. Model forecast soundings show a seasonably moist/unstable airmass (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) across much of this region. Strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard with the stronger storms, especially if small clustering of storms can occur. Based on the latest model guidance and visible satellite observations, this appears most likely across parts of northern OH into perhaps southeast Lower MI. ...South/southeast Texas... Despite an initially poor lapse rate/weakly unstable environment sampled with the 12 UTC Corpus Christi and Brownsville raobs, a moist-tropical airmass will continue to advect into the region on the northern periphery of Alberto, with MLCAPE likely rising into the 500-1500 J/kg range near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX by later this afternoon. Model guidance continues to indicate low-level shear to increase, which will result in hodographs enlarging by mid-late afternoon into tonight across the coastal plain of TX (0-1 km SRH (100-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). The likely cellular storm mode will also potentially be slightly more favorable for a tornado risk, considering the environment scenario described above. As such, have increased tornado probabilities to 5 percent (Slight Risk) near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest details on Tropical Storm Alberto. ...Southern High Plains... Radar/surface composite analysis late this morning shows a persistent area of weak convection north of a south-southwest moving outflow boundary from the TX Panhandle into northeast NM. Considerable lingering clouds and related convection will probably limit instability from near the TX/NM border and areas east. However, west of the outflow appreciable moisture and heating will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Isolated large hail/severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before diminishing by mid evening. ...Northern Missouri/eastern Iowa to southern Wisconsin... To the east-northeast of lingering early morning convection across northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri, cloud cover should generally diminish today near the outflow augmented southwest/northeast-oriented synoptic front across the region. Potentially aided by an MCV, thunderstorms should redevelop and intensify this afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes, with as much as 30 kt of effective shear maximized immediately near the synoptic front. Isolated instances of localized wind damage could occur. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH TEXAS...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across south and southeast Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered strong to locally severe/damaging gusts are possible over portions of the southern Great Lakes this afternoon into the early evening. ...Discussion... No substantive changes appear necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time. Forecast reasoning and expectations as laid out in prior discussions remain valid at this time. ..Goss.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an East Coast upper ridge while a broad mid-level trough resides over the West. The upper ridge will build westward into the mid MS Valley as the primary belt of westerlies retreats north of the international border. This westward expansion will encourage the tropical system over the western Gulf basin to move into northeast Mexico, considerably south of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower Great Lakes to northern New England... While upper ridging will dominate this region, scattered convection will once again develop from portions of the Ohio Valley northeastward into New England, as surface temperatures warm through the upper 80s the lower 90s F. Area 88D VADs show a slightly stronger belt of mid-level southwesterly flow over the southern Great Lakes, which may act to influence storm organization and potential storm intensity/severe risk later this afternoon. Model forecast soundings show a seasonably moist/unstable airmass (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) across much of this region. Strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard with the stronger storms, especially if small clustering of storms can occur. Based on the latest model guidance and visible satellite observations, this appears most likely across parts of northern OH into perhaps southeast Lower MI. ...South/southeast Texas... Despite an initially poor lapse rate/weakly unstable environment sampled with the 12 UTC Corpus Christi and Brownsville raobs, a moist-tropical airmass will continue to advect into the region on the northern periphery of Alberto, with MLCAPE likely rising into the 500-1500 J/kg range near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX by later this afternoon. Model guidance continues to indicate low-level shear to increase, which will result in hodographs enlarging by mid-late afternoon into tonight across the coastal plain of TX (0-1 km SRH (100-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). The likely cellular storm mode will also potentially be slightly more favorable for a tornado risk, considering the environment scenario described above. As such, have increased tornado probabilities to 5 percent (Slight Risk) near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest details on Tropical Storm Alberto. ...Southern High Plains... Radar/surface composite analysis late this morning shows a persistent area of weak convection north of a south-southwest moving outflow boundary from the TX Panhandle into northeast NM. Considerable lingering clouds and related convection will probably limit instability from near the TX/NM border and areas east. However, west of the outflow appreciable moisture and heating will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Isolated large hail/severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before diminishing by mid evening. ...Northern Missouri/eastern Iowa to southern Wisconsin... To the east-northeast of lingering early morning convection across northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri, cloud cover should generally diminish today near the outflow augmented southwest/northeast-oriented synoptic front across the region. Potentially aided by an MCV, thunderstorms should redevelop and intensify this afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes, with as much as 30 kt of effective shear maximized immediately near the synoptic front. Isolated instances of localized wind damage could occur. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH TEXAS...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across south and southeast Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered strong to locally severe/damaging gusts are possible over portions of the southern Great Lakes this afternoon into the early evening. ...Discussion... No substantive changes appear necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time. Forecast reasoning and expectations as laid out in prior discussions remain valid at this time. ..Goss.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an East Coast upper ridge while a broad mid-level trough resides over the West. The upper ridge will build westward into the mid MS Valley as the primary belt of westerlies retreats north of the international border. This westward expansion will encourage the tropical system over the western Gulf basin to move into northeast Mexico, considerably south of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower Great Lakes to northern New England... While upper ridging will dominate this region, scattered convection will once again develop from portions of the Ohio Valley northeastward into New England, as surface temperatures warm through the upper 80s the lower 90s F. Area 88D VADs show a slightly stronger belt of mid-level southwesterly flow over the southern Great Lakes, which may act to influence storm organization and potential storm intensity/severe risk later this afternoon. Model forecast soundings show a seasonably moist/unstable airmass (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) across much of this region. Strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard with the stronger storms, especially if small clustering of storms can occur. Based on the latest model guidance and visible satellite observations, this appears most likely across parts of northern OH into perhaps southeast Lower MI. ...South/southeast Texas... Despite an initially poor lapse rate/weakly unstable environment sampled with the 12 UTC Corpus Christi and Brownsville raobs, a moist-tropical airmass will continue to advect into the region on the northern periphery of Alberto, with MLCAPE likely rising into the 500-1500 J/kg range near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX by later this afternoon. Model guidance continues to indicate low-level shear to increase, which will result in hodographs enlarging by mid-late afternoon into tonight across the coastal plain of TX (0-1 km SRH (100-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). The likely cellular storm mode will also potentially be slightly more favorable for a tornado risk, considering the environment scenario described above. As such, have increased tornado probabilities to 5 percent (Slight Risk) near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest details on Tropical Storm Alberto. ...Southern High Plains... Radar/surface composite analysis late this morning shows a persistent area of weak convection north of a south-southwest moving outflow boundary from the TX Panhandle into northeast NM. Considerable lingering clouds and related convection will probably limit instability from near the TX/NM border and areas east. However, west of the outflow appreciable moisture and heating will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Isolated large hail/severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before diminishing by mid evening. ...Northern Missouri/eastern Iowa to southern Wisconsin... To the east-northeast of lingering early morning convection across northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri, cloud cover should generally diminish today near the outflow augmented southwest/northeast-oriented synoptic front across the region. Potentially aided by an MCV, thunderstorms should redevelop and intensify this afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes, with as much as 30 kt of effective shear maximized immediately near the synoptic front. Isolated instances of localized wind damage could occur. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH TEXAS...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across south and southeast Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered strong to locally severe/damaging gusts are possible over portions of the southern Great Lakes this afternoon into the early evening. ...Discussion... No substantive changes appear necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time. Forecast reasoning and expectations as laid out in prior discussions remain valid at this time. ..Goss.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an East Coast upper ridge while a broad mid-level trough resides over the West. The upper ridge will build westward into the mid MS Valley as the primary belt of westerlies retreats north of the international border. This westward expansion will encourage the tropical system over the western Gulf basin to move into northeast Mexico, considerably south of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower Great Lakes to northern New England... While upper ridging will dominate this region, scattered convection will once again develop from portions of the Ohio Valley northeastward into New England, as surface temperatures warm through the upper 80s the lower 90s F. Area 88D VADs show a slightly stronger belt of mid-level southwesterly flow over the southern Great Lakes, which may act to influence storm organization and potential storm intensity/severe risk later this afternoon. Model forecast soundings show a seasonably moist/unstable airmass (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) across much of this region. Strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard with the stronger storms, especially if small clustering of storms can occur. Based on the latest model guidance and visible satellite observations, this appears most likely across parts of northern OH into perhaps southeast Lower MI. ...South/southeast Texas... Despite an initially poor lapse rate/weakly unstable environment sampled with the 12 UTC Corpus Christi and Brownsville raobs, a moist-tropical airmass will continue to advect into the region on the northern periphery of Alberto, with MLCAPE likely rising into the 500-1500 J/kg range near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX by later this afternoon. Model guidance continues to indicate low-level shear to increase, which will result in hodographs enlarging by mid-late afternoon into tonight across the coastal plain of TX (0-1 km SRH (100-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). The likely cellular storm mode will also potentially be slightly more favorable for a tornado risk, considering the environment scenario described above. As such, have increased tornado probabilities to 5 percent (Slight Risk) near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest details on Tropical Storm Alberto. ...Southern High Plains... Radar/surface composite analysis late this morning shows a persistent area of weak convection north of a south-southwest moving outflow boundary from the TX Panhandle into northeast NM. Considerable lingering clouds and related convection will probably limit instability from near the TX/NM border and areas east. However, west of the outflow appreciable moisture and heating will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Isolated large hail/severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before diminishing by mid evening. ...Northern Missouri/eastern Iowa to southern Wisconsin... To the east-northeast of lingering early morning convection across northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri, cloud cover should generally diminish today near the outflow augmented southwest/northeast-oriented synoptic front across the region. Potentially aided by an MCV, thunderstorms should redevelop and intensify this afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes, with as much as 30 kt of effective shear maximized immediately near the synoptic front. Isolated instances of localized wind damage could occur. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH TEXAS...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across south and southeast Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered strong to locally severe/damaging gusts are possible over portions of the southern Great Lakes this afternoon into the early evening. ...Discussion... No substantive changes appear necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time. Forecast reasoning and expectations as laid out in prior discussions remain valid at this time. ..Goss.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an East Coast upper ridge while a broad mid-level trough resides over the West. The upper ridge will build westward into the mid MS Valley as the primary belt of westerlies retreats north of the international border. This westward expansion will encourage the tropical system over the western Gulf basin to move into northeast Mexico, considerably south of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower Great Lakes to northern New England... While upper ridging will dominate this region, scattered convection will once again develop from portions of the Ohio Valley northeastward into New England, as surface temperatures warm through the upper 80s the lower 90s F. Area 88D VADs show a slightly stronger belt of mid-level southwesterly flow over the southern Great Lakes, which may act to influence storm organization and potential storm intensity/severe risk later this afternoon. Model forecast soundings show a seasonably moist/unstable airmass (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) across much of this region. Strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard with the stronger storms, especially if small clustering of storms can occur. Based on the latest model guidance and visible satellite observations, this appears most likely across parts of northern OH into perhaps southeast Lower MI. ...South/southeast Texas... Despite an initially poor lapse rate/weakly unstable environment sampled with the 12 UTC Corpus Christi and Brownsville raobs, a moist-tropical airmass will continue to advect into the region on the northern periphery of Alberto, with MLCAPE likely rising into the 500-1500 J/kg range near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX by later this afternoon. Model guidance continues to indicate low-level shear to increase, which will result in hodographs enlarging by mid-late afternoon into tonight across the coastal plain of TX (0-1 km SRH (100-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). The likely cellular storm mode will also potentially be slightly more favorable for a tornado risk, considering the environment scenario described above. As such, have increased tornado probabilities to 5 percent (Slight Risk) near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest details on Tropical Storm Alberto. ...Southern High Plains... Radar/surface composite analysis late this morning shows a persistent area of weak convection north of a south-southwest moving outflow boundary from the TX Panhandle into northeast NM. Considerable lingering clouds and related convection will probably limit instability from near the TX/NM border and areas east. However, west of the outflow appreciable moisture and heating will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Isolated large hail/severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before diminishing by mid evening. ...Northern Missouri/eastern Iowa to southern Wisconsin... To the east-northeast of lingering early morning convection across northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri, cloud cover should generally diminish today near the outflow augmented southwest/northeast-oriented synoptic front across the region. Potentially aided by an MCV, thunderstorms should redevelop and intensify this afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes, with as much as 30 kt of effective shear maximized immediately near the synoptic front. Isolated instances of localized wind damage could occur. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH TEXAS...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across south and southeast Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered strong to locally severe/damaging gusts are possible over portions of the southern Great Lakes this afternoon into the early evening. ...Discussion... No substantive changes appear necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time. Forecast reasoning and expectations as laid out in prior discussions remain valid at this time. ..Goss.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an East Coast upper ridge while a broad mid-level trough resides over the West. The upper ridge will build westward into the mid MS Valley as the primary belt of westerlies retreats north of the international border. This westward expansion will encourage the tropical system over the western Gulf basin to move into northeast Mexico, considerably south of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower Great Lakes to northern New England... While upper ridging will dominate this region, scattered convection will once again develop from portions of the Ohio Valley northeastward into New England, as surface temperatures warm through the upper 80s the lower 90s F. Area 88D VADs show a slightly stronger belt of mid-level southwesterly flow over the southern Great Lakes, which may act to influence storm organization and potential storm intensity/severe risk later this afternoon. Model forecast soundings show a seasonably moist/unstable airmass (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) across much of this region. Strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard with the stronger storms, especially if small clustering of storms can occur. Based on the latest model guidance and visible satellite observations, this appears most likely across parts of northern OH into perhaps southeast Lower MI. ...South/southeast Texas... Despite an initially poor lapse rate/weakly unstable environment sampled with the 12 UTC Corpus Christi and Brownsville raobs, a moist-tropical airmass will continue to advect into the region on the northern periphery of Alberto, with MLCAPE likely rising into the 500-1500 J/kg range near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX by later this afternoon. Model guidance continues to indicate low-level shear to increase, which will result in hodographs enlarging by mid-late afternoon into tonight across the coastal plain of TX (0-1 km SRH (100-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). The likely cellular storm mode will also potentially be slightly more favorable for a tornado risk, considering the environment scenario described above. As such, have increased tornado probabilities to 5 percent (Slight Risk) near the Lower and Middle Coasts of TX. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest details on Tropical Storm Alberto. ...Southern High Plains... Radar/surface composite analysis late this morning shows a persistent area of weak convection north of a south-southwest moving outflow boundary from the TX Panhandle into northeast NM. Considerable lingering clouds and related convection will probably limit instability from near the TX/NM border and areas east. However, west of the outflow appreciable moisture and heating will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Isolated large hail/severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before diminishing by mid evening. ...Northern Missouri/eastern Iowa to southern Wisconsin... To the east-northeast of lingering early morning convection across northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri, cloud cover should generally diminish today near the outflow augmented southwest/northeast-oriented synoptic front across the region. Potentially aided by an MCV, thunderstorms should redevelop and intensify this afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes, with as much as 30 kt of effective shear maximized immediately near the synoptic front. Isolated instances of localized wind damage could occur. Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Jun 19 19:54:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A steady westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona on Thursday. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas were included at this time but this risk will be monitored in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A steady westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona on Thursday. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas were included at this time but this risk will be monitored in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more