Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level short-wave cresting the central and southern U.S. ridge, moving eastward across the Upper Midwest early, will turn a bit more southeastward with time -- progressing across the southern Upper Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area through Thursday and into Friday morning. At the surface, this trough will be reflected by a weak area of low pressure that should settle southeastward across the Ohio Valley through the afternoon/evening and overnight hours. Widespread showers and thunderstorms -- including locally severe storms -- are expected across this region. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley area... Ongoing/early-period convection -- and possibly ongoing severe risk -- is expected across the Illinois vicinity early Thursday. This convection should gradually diminish/weaken through the day as it continues advancing east-southeastward. In its wake, the degree of destabilization potential remains somewhat in question due to the worked-over airmass and lingering cloudiness, but current expectations are that moderate destabilization should commence, peaking in the afternoon at 2000 to 3000 J/kg. As the upper system moves southeastward, redevelopment of storms -- likely focused near remnant convective boundaries -- is expected. With a belt of moderate (30 to 40 kt) westerlies at mid levels on the southern fringe of the upper system, shear will support organized convection -- with initial/potential supercells likely to grow upscale while shifting generally eastward across the Ohio Valley area through the evening. Along with potential for large hail, damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk once again. At this time, uncertainty due to early/ongoing convection and its associated threats on the airmass preclude introduction of higher probabilities. Greater risk may be included in future outlooks once the early-day convective evolution becomes more clear in later outlooks. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the afternoon as a moist (70s dewpoints) airmass east of the highest terrain heats/destabilizes through the day. Though low-level flow will remain weak, and a general lack of large-scale ascent aloft, mid-level northwesterlies at 25 to 30 kt will likely support a few stronger storms through the afternoon/early evening, capable of producing locally damaging winds and hail. ..Goss.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level short-wave cresting the central and southern U.S. ridge, moving eastward across the Upper Midwest early, will turn a bit more southeastward with time -- progressing across the southern Upper Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area through Thursday and into Friday morning. At the surface, this trough will be reflected by a weak area of low pressure that should settle southeastward across the Ohio Valley through the afternoon/evening and overnight hours. Widespread showers and thunderstorms -- including locally severe storms -- are expected across this region. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley area... Ongoing/early-period convection -- and possibly ongoing severe risk -- is expected across the Illinois vicinity early Thursday. This convection should gradually diminish/weaken through the day as it continues advancing east-southeastward. In its wake, the degree of destabilization potential remains somewhat in question due to the worked-over airmass and lingering cloudiness, but current expectations are that moderate destabilization should commence, peaking in the afternoon at 2000 to 3000 J/kg. As the upper system moves southeastward, redevelopment of storms -- likely focused near remnant convective boundaries -- is expected. With a belt of moderate (30 to 40 kt) westerlies at mid levels on the southern fringe of the upper system, shear will support organized convection -- with initial/potential supercells likely to grow upscale while shifting generally eastward across the Ohio Valley area through the evening. Along with potential for large hail, damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk once again. At this time, uncertainty due to early/ongoing convection and its associated threats on the airmass preclude introduction of higher probabilities. Greater risk may be included in future outlooks once the early-day convective evolution becomes more clear in later outlooks. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the afternoon as a moist (70s dewpoints) airmass east of the highest terrain heats/destabilizes through the day. Though low-level flow will remain weak, and a general lack of large-scale ascent aloft, mid-level northwesterlies at 25 to 30 kt will likely support a few stronger storms through the afternoon/early evening, capable of producing locally damaging winds and hail. ..Goss.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level short-wave cresting the central and southern U.S. ridge, moving eastward across the Upper Midwest early, will turn a bit more southeastward with time -- progressing across the southern Upper Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area through Thursday and into Friday morning. At the surface, this trough will be reflected by a weak area of low pressure that should settle southeastward across the Ohio Valley through the afternoon/evening and overnight hours. Widespread showers and thunderstorms -- including locally severe storms -- are expected across this region. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley area... Ongoing/early-period convection -- and possibly ongoing severe risk -- is expected across the Illinois vicinity early Thursday. This convection should gradually diminish/weaken through the day as it continues advancing east-southeastward. In its wake, the degree of destabilization potential remains somewhat in question due to the worked-over airmass and lingering cloudiness, but current expectations are that moderate destabilization should commence, peaking in the afternoon at 2000 to 3000 J/kg. As the upper system moves southeastward, redevelopment of storms -- likely focused near remnant convective boundaries -- is expected. With a belt of moderate (30 to 40 kt) westerlies at mid levels on the southern fringe of the upper system, shear will support organized convection -- with initial/potential supercells likely to grow upscale while shifting generally eastward across the Ohio Valley area through the evening. Along with potential for large hail, damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk once again. At this time, uncertainty due to early/ongoing convection and its associated threats on the airmass preclude introduction of higher probabilities. Greater risk may be included in future outlooks once the early-day convective evolution becomes more clear in later outlooks. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the afternoon as a moist (70s dewpoints) airmass east of the highest terrain heats/destabilizes through the day. Though low-level flow will remain weak, and a general lack of large-scale ascent aloft, mid-level northwesterlies at 25 to 30 kt will likely support a few stronger storms through the afternoon/early evening, capable of producing locally damaging winds and hail. ..Goss.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level short-wave cresting the central and southern U.S. ridge, moving eastward across the Upper Midwest early, will turn a bit more southeastward with time -- progressing across the southern Upper Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area through Thursday and into Friday morning. At the surface, this trough will be reflected by a weak area of low pressure that should settle southeastward across the Ohio Valley through the afternoon/evening and overnight hours. Widespread showers and thunderstorms -- including locally severe storms -- are expected across this region. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley area... Ongoing/early-period convection -- and possibly ongoing severe risk -- is expected across the Illinois vicinity early Thursday. This convection should gradually diminish/weaken through the day as it continues advancing east-southeastward. In its wake, the degree of destabilization potential remains somewhat in question due to the worked-over airmass and lingering cloudiness, but current expectations are that moderate destabilization should commence, peaking in the afternoon at 2000 to 3000 J/kg. As the upper system moves southeastward, redevelopment of storms -- likely focused near remnant convective boundaries -- is expected. With a belt of moderate (30 to 40 kt) westerlies at mid levels on the southern fringe of the upper system, shear will support organized convection -- with initial/potential supercells likely to grow upscale while shifting generally eastward across the Ohio Valley area through the evening. Along with potential for large hail, damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk once again. At this time, uncertainty due to early/ongoing convection and its associated threats on the airmass preclude introduction of higher probabilities. Greater risk may be included in future outlooks once the early-day convective evolution becomes more clear in later outlooks. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the afternoon as a moist (70s dewpoints) airmass east of the highest terrain heats/destabilizes through the day. Though low-level flow will remain weak, and a general lack of large-scale ascent aloft, mid-level northwesterlies at 25 to 30 kt will likely support a few stronger storms through the afternoon/early evening, capable of producing locally damaging winds and hail. ..Goss.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level short-wave cresting the central and southern U.S. ridge, moving eastward across the Upper Midwest early, will turn a bit more southeastward with time -- progressing across the southern Upper Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area through Thursday and into Friday morning. At the surface, this trough will be reflected by a weak area of low pressure that should settle southeastward across the Ohio Valley through the afternoon/evening and overnight hours. Widespread showers and thunderstorms -- including locally severe storms -- are expected across this region. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley area... Ongoing/early-period convection -- and possibly ongoing severe risk -- is expected across the Illinois vicinity early Thursday. This convection should gradually diminish/weaken through the day as it continues advancing east-southeastward. In its wake, the degree of destabilization potential remains somewhat in question due to the worked-over airmass and lingering cloudiness, but current expectations are that moderate destabilization should commence, peaking in the afternoon at 2000 to 3000 J/kg. As the upper system moves southeastward, redevelopment of storms -- likely focused near remnant convective boundaries -- is expected. With a belt of moderate (30 to 40 kt) westerlies at mid levels on the southern fringe of the upper system, shear will support organized convection -- with initial/potential supercells likely to grow upscale while shifting generally eastward across the Ohio Valley area through the evening. Along with potential for large hail, damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk once again. At this time, uncertainty due to early/ongoing convection and its associated threats on the airmass preclude introduction of higher probabilities. Greater risk may be included in future outlooks once the early-day convective evolution becomes more clear in later outlooks. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the afternoon as a moist (70s dewpoints) airmass east of the highest terrain heats/destabilizes through the day. Though low-level flow will remain weak, and a general lack of large-scale ascent aloft, mid-level northwesterlies at 25 to 30 kt will likely support a few stronger storms through the afternoon/early evening, capable of producing locally damaging winds and hail. ..Goss.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level short-wave cresting the central and southern U.S. ridge, moving eastward across the Upper Midwest early, will turn a bit more southeastward with time -- progressing across the southern Upper Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area through Thursday and into Friday morning. At the surface, this trough will be reflected by a weak area of low pressure that should settle southeastward across the Ohio Valley through the afternoon/evening and overnight hours. Widespread showers and thunderstorms -- including locally severe storms -- are expected across this region. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley area... Ongoing/early-period convection -- and possibly ongoing severe risk -- is expected across the Illinois vicinity early Thursday. This convection should gradually diminish/weaken through the day as it continues advancing east-southeastward. In its wake, the degree of destabilization potential remains somewhat in question due to the worked-over airmass and lingering cloudiness, but current expectations are that moderate destabilization should commence, peaking in the afternoon at 2000 to 3000 J/kg. As the upper system moves southeastward, redevelopment of storms -- likely focused near remnant convective boundaries -- is expected. With a belt of moderate (30 to 40 kt) westerlies at mid levels on the southern fringe of the upper system, shear will support organized convection -- with initial/potential supercells likely to grow upscale while shifting generally eastward across the Ohio Valley area through the evening. Along with potential for large hail, damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk once again. At this time, uncertainty due to early/ongoing convection and its associated threats on the airmass preclude introduction of higher probabilities. Greater risk may be included in future outlooks once the early-day convective evolution becomes more clear in later outlooks. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the afternoon as a moist (70s dewpoints) airmass east of the highest terrain heats/destabilizes through the day. Though low-level flow will remain weak, and a general lack of large-scale ascent aloft, mid-level northwesterlies at 25 to 30 kt will likely support a few stronger storms through the afternoon/early evening, capable of producing locally damaging winds and hail. ..Goss.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level short-wave cresting the central and southern U.S. ridge, moving eastward across the Upper Midwest early, will turn a bit more southeastward with time -- progressing across the southern Upper Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area through Thursday and into Friday morning. At the surface, this trough will be reflected by a weak area of low pressure that should settle southeastward across the Ohio Valley through the afternoon/evening and overnight hours. Widespread showers and thunderstorms -- including locally severe storms -- are expected across this region. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley area... Ongoing/early-period convection -- and possibly ongoing severe risk -- is expected across the Illinois vicinity early Thursday. This convection should gradually diminish/weaken through the day as it continues advancing east-southeastward. In its wake, the degree of destabilization potential remains somewhat in question due to the worked-over airmass and lingering cloudiness, but current expectations are that moderate destabilization should commence, peaking in the afternoon at 2000 to 3000 J/kg. As the upper system moves southeastward, redevelopment of storms -- likely focused near remnant convective boundaries -- is expected. With a belt of moderate (30 to 40 kt) westerlies at mid levels on the southern fringe of the upper system, shear will support organized convection -- with initial/potential supercells likely to grow upscale while shifting generally eastward across the Ohio Valley area through the evening. Along with potential for large hail, damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk once again. At this time, uncertainty due to early/ongoing convection and its associated threats on the airmass preclude introduction of higher probabilities. Greater risk may be included in future outlooks once the early-day convective evolution becomes more clear in later outlooks. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the afternoon as a moist (70s dewpoints) airmass east of the highest terrain heats/destabilizes through the day. Though low-level flow will remain weak, and a general lack of large-scale ascent aloft, mid-level northwesterlies at 25 to 30 kt will likely support a few stronger storms through the afternoon/early evening, capable of producing locally damaging winds and hail. ..Goss.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level short-wave cresting the central and southern U.S. ridge, moving eastward across the Upper Midwest early, will turn a bit more southeastward with time -- progressing across the southern Upper Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area through Thursday and into Friday morning. At the surface, this trough will be reflected by a weak area of low pressure that should settle southeastward across the Ohio Valley through the afternoon/evening and overnight hours. Widespread showers and thunderstorms -- including locally severe storms -- are expected across this region. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley area... Ongoing/early-period convection -- and possibly ongoing severe risk -- is expected across the Illinois vicinity early Thursday. This convection should gradually diminish/weaken through the day as it continues advancing east-southeastward. In its wake, the degree of destabilization potential remains somewhat in question due to the worked-over airmass and lingering cloudiness, but current expectations are that moderate destabilization should commence, peaking in the afternoon at 2000 to 3000 J/kg. As the upper system moves southeastward, redevelopment of storms -- likely focused near remnant convective boundaries -- is expected. With a belt of moderate (30 to 40 kt) westerlies at mid levels on the southern fringe of the upper system, shear will support organized convection -- with initial/potential supercells likely to grow upscale while shifting generally eastward across the Ohio Valley area through the evening. Along with potential for large hail, damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk once again. At this time, uncertainty due to early/ongoing convection and its associated threats on the airmass preclude introduction of higher probabilities. Greater risk may be included in future outlooks once the early-day convective evolution becomes more clear in later outlooks. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the afternoon as a moist (70s dewpoints) airmass east of the highest terrain heats/destabilizes through the day. Though low-level flow will remain weak, and a general lack of large-scale ascent aloft, mid-level northwesterlies at 25 to 30 kt will likely support a few stronger storms through the afternoon/early evening, capable of producing locally damaging winds and hail. ..Goss.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level short-wave cresting the central and southern U.S. ridge, moving eastward across the Upper Midwest early, will turn a bit more southeastward with time -- progressing across the southern Upper Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area through Thursday and into Friday morning. At the surface, this trough will be reflected by a weak area of low pressure that should settle southeastward across the Ohio Valley through the afternoon/evening and overnight hours. Widespread showers and thunderstorms -- including locally severe storms -- are expected across this region. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley area... Ongoing/early-period convection -- and possibly ongoing severe risk -- is expected across the Illinois vicinity early Thursday. This convection should gradually diminish/weaken through the day as it continues advancing east-southeastward. In its wake, the degree of destabilization potential remains somewhat in question due to the worked-over airmass and lingering cloudiness, but current expectations are that moderate destabilization should commence, peaking in the afternoon at 2000 to 3000 J/kg. As the upper system moves southeastward, redevelopment of storms -- likely focused near remnant convective boundaries -- is expected. With a belt of moderate (30 to 40 kt) westerlies at mid levels on the southern fringe of the upper system, shear will support organized convection -- with initial/potential supercells likely to grow upscale while shifting generally eastward across the Ohio Valley area through the evening. Along with potential for large hail, damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk once again. At this time, uncertainty due to early/ongoing convection and its associated threats on the airmass preclude introduction of higher probabilities. Greater risk may be included in future outlooks once the early-day convective evolution becomes more clear in later outlooks. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the afternoon as a moist (70s dewpoints) airmass east of the highest terrain heats/destabilizes through the day. Though low-level flow will remain weak, and a general lack of large-scale ascent aloft, mid-level northwesterlies at 25 to 30 kt will likely support a few stronger storms through the afternoon/early evening, capable of producing locally damaging winds and hail. ..Goss.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level short-wave cresting the central and southern U.S. ridge, moving eastward across the Upper Midwest early, will turn a bit more southeastward with time -- progressing across the southern Upper Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area through Thursday and into Friday morning. At the surface, this trough will be reflected by a weak area of low pressure that should settle southeastward across the Ohio Valley through the afternoon/evening and overnight hours. Widespread showers and thunderstorms -- including locally severe storms -- are expected across this region. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley area... Ongoing/early-period convection -- and possibly ongoing severe risk -- is expected across the Illinois vicinity early Thursday. This convection should gradually diminish/weaken through the day as it continues advancing east-southeastward. In its wake, the degree of destabilization potential remains somewhat in question due to the worked-over airmass and lingering cloudiness, but current expectations are that moderate destabilization should commence, peaking in the afternoon at 2000 to 3000 J/kg. As the upper system moves southeastward, redevelopment of storms -- likely focused near remnant convective boundaries -- is expected. With a belt of moderate (30 to 40 kt) westerlies at mid levels on the southern fringe of the upper system, shear will support organized convection -- with initial/potential supercells likely to grow upscale while shifting generally eastward across the Ohio Valley area through the evening. Along with potential for large hail, damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk once again. At this time, uncertainty due to early/ongoing convection and its associated threats on the airmass preclude introduction of higher probabilities. Greater risk may be included in future outlooks once the early-day convective evolution becomes more clear in later outlooks. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the afternoon as a moist (70s dewpoints) airmass east of the highest terrain heats/destabilizes through the day. Though low-level flow will remain weak, and a general lack of large-scale ascent aloft, mid-level northwesterlies at 25 to 30 kt will likely support a few stronger storms through the afternoon/early evening, capable of producing locally damaging winds and hail. ..Goss.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level short-wave cresting the central and southern U.S. ridge, moving eastward across the Upper Midwest early, will turn a bit more southeastward with time -- progressing across the southern Upper Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area through Thursday and into Friday morning. At the surface, this trough will be reflected by a weak area of low pressure that should settle southeastward across the Ohio Valley through the afternoon/evening and overnight hours. Widespread showers and thunderstorms -- including locally severe storms -- are expected across this region. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley area... Ongoing/early-period convection -- and possibly ongoing severe risk -- is expected across the Illinois vicinity early Thursday. This convection should gradually diminish/weaken through the day as it continues advancing east-southeastward. In its wake, the degree of destabilization potential remains somewhat in question due to the worked-over airmass and lingering cloudiness, but current expectations are that moderate destabilization should commence, peaking in the afternoon at 2000 to 3000 J/kg. As the upper system moves southeastward, redevelopment of storms -- likely focused near remnant convective boundaries -- is expected. With a belt of moderate (30 to 40 kt) westerlies at mid levels on the southern fringe of the upper system, shear will support organized convection -- with initial/potential supercells likely to grow upscale while shifting generally eastward across the Ohio Valley area through the evening. Along with potential for large hail, damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk once again. At this time, uncertainty due to early/ongoing convection and its associated threats on the airmass preclude introduction of higher probabilities. Greater risk may be included in future outlooks once the early-day convective evolution becomes more clear in later outlooks. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the afternoon as a moist (70s dewpoints) airmass east of the highest terrain heats/destabilizes through the day. Though low-level flow will remain weak, and a general lack of large-scale ascent aloft, mid-level northwesterlies at 25 to 30 kt will likely support a few stronger storms through the afternoon/early evening, capable of producing locally damaging winds and hail. ..Goss.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level short-wave cresting the central and southern U.S. ridge, moving eastward across the Upper Midwest early, will turn a bit more southeastward with time -- progressing across the southern Upper Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area through Thursday and into Friday morning. At the surface, this trough will be reflected by a weak area of low pressure that should settle southeastward across the Ohio Valley through the afternoon/evening and overnight hours. Widespread showers and thunderstorms -- including locally severe storms -- are expected across this region. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley area... Ongoing/early-period convection -- and possibly ongoing severe risk -- is expected across the Illinois vicinity early Thursday. This convection should gradually diminish/weaken through the day as it continues advancing east-southeastward. In its wake, the degree of destabilization potential remains somewhat in question due to the worked-over airmass and lingering cloudiness, but current expectations are that moderate destabilization should commence, peaking in the afternoon at 2000 to 3000 J/kg. As the upper system moves southeastward, redevelopment of storms -- likely focused near remnant convective boundaries -- is expected. With a belt of moderate (30 to 40 kt) westerlies at mid levels on the southern fringe of the upper system, shear will support organized convection -- with initial/potential supercells likely to grow upscale while shifting generally eastward across the Ohio Valley area through the evening. Along with potential for large hail, damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk once again. At this time, uncertainty due to early/ongoing convection and its associated threats on the airmass preclude introduction of higher probabilities. Greater risk may be included in future outlooks once the early-day convective evolution becomes more clear in later outlooks. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the afternoon as a moist (70s dewpoints) airmass east of the highest terrain heats/destabilizes through the day. Though low-level flow will remain weak, and a general lack of large-scale ascent aloft, mid-level northwesterlies at 25 to 30 kt will likely support a few stronger storms through the afternoon/early evening, capable of producing locally damaging winds and hail. ..Goss.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level short-wave cresting the central and southern U.S. ridge, moving eastward across the Upper Midwest early, will turn a bit more southeastward with time -- progressing across the southern Upper Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area through Thursday and into Friday morning. At the surface, this trough will be reflected by a weak area of low pressure that should settle southeastward across the Ohio Valley through the afternoon/evening and overnight hours. Widespread showers and thunderstorms -- including locally severe storms -- are expected across this region. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley area... Ongoing/early-period convection -- and possibly ongoing severe risk -- is expected across the Illinois vicinity early Thursday. This convection should gradually diminish/weaken through the day as it continues advancing east-southeastward. In its wake, the degree of destabilization potential remains somewhat in question due to the worked-over airmass and lingering cloudiness, but current expectations are that moderate destabilization should commence, peaking in the afternoon at 2000 to 3000 J/kg. As the upper system moves southeastward, redevelopment of storms -- likely focused near remnant convective boundaries -- is expected. With a belt of moderate (30 to 40 kt) westerlies at mid levels on the southern fringe of the upper system, shear will support organized convection -- with initial/potential supercells likely to grow upscale while shifting generally eastward across the Ohio Valley area through the evening. Along with potential for large hail, damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk once again. At this time, uncertainty due to early/ongoing convection and its associated threats on the airmass preclude introduction of higher probabilities. Greater risk may be included in future outlooks once the early-day convective evolution becomes more clear in later outlooks. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the afternoon as a moist (70s dewpoints) airmass east of the highest terrain heats/destabilizes through the day. Though low-level flow will remain weak, and a general lack of large-scale ascent aloft, mid-level northwesterlies at 25 to 30 kt will likely support a few stronger storms through the afternoon/early evening, capable of producing locally damaging winds and hail. ..Goss.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level short-wave cresting the central and southern U.S. ridge, moving eastward across the Upper Midwest early, will turn a bit more southeastward with time -- progressing across the southern Upper Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area through Thursday and into Friday morning. At the surface, this trough will be reflected by a weak area of low pressure that should settle southeastward across the Ohio Valley through the afternoon/evening and overnight hours. Widespread showers and thunderstorms -- including locally severe storms -- are expected across this region. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley area... Ongoing/early-period convection -- and possibly ongoing severe risk -- is expected across the Illinois vicinity early Thursday. This convection should gradually diminish/weaken through the day as it continues advancing east-southeastward. In its wake, the degree of destabilization potential remains somewhat in question due to the worked-over airmass and lingering cloudiness, but current expectations are that moderate destabilization should commence, peaking in the afternoon at 2000 to 3000 J/kg. As the upper system moves southeastward, redevelopment of storms -- likely focused near remnant convective boundaries -- is expected. With a belt of moderate (30 to 40 kt) westerlies at mid levels on the southern fringe of the upper system, shear will support organized convection -- with initial/potential supercells likely to grow upscale while shifting generally eastward across the Ohio Valley area through the evening. Along with potential for large hail, damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk once again. At this time, uncertainty due to early/ongoing convection and its associated threats on the airmass preclude introduction of higher probabilities. Greater risk may be included in future outlooks once the early-day convective evolution becomes more clear in later outlooks. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the afternoon as a moist (70s dewpoints) airmass east of the highest terrain heats/destabilizes through the day. Though low-level flow will remain weak, and a general lack of large-scale ascent aloft, mid-level northwesterlies at 25 to 30 kt will likely support a few stronger storms through the afternoon/early evening, capable of producing locally damaging winds and hail. ..Goss.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level short-wave cresting the central and southern U.S. ridge, moving eastward across the Upper Midwest early, will turn a bit more southeastward with time -- progressing across the southern Upper Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area through Thursday and into Friday morning. At the surface, this trough will be reflected by a weak area of low pressure that should settle southeastward across the Ohio Valley through the afternoon/evening and overnight hours. Widespread showers and thunderstorms -- including locally severe storms -- are expected across this region. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley area... Ongoing/early-period convection -- and possibly ongoing severe risk -- is expected across the Illinois vicinity early Thursday. This convection should gradually diminish/weaken through the day as it continues advancing east-southeastward. In its wake, the degree of destabilization potential remains somewhat in question due to the worked-over airmass and lingering cloudiness, but current expectations are that moderate destabilization should commence, peaking in the afternoon at 2000 to 3000 J/kg. As the upper system moves southeastward, redevelopment of storms -- likely focused near remnant convective boundaries -- is expected. With a belt of moderate (30 to 40 kt) westerlies at mid levels on the southern fringe of the upper system, shear will support organized convection -- with initial/potential supercells likely to grow upscale while shifting generally eastward across the Ohio Valley area through the evening. Along with potential for large hail, damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk once again. At this time, uncertainty due to early/ongoing convection and its associated threats on the airmass preclude introduction of higher probabilities. Greater risk may be included in future outlooks once the early-day convective evolution becomes more clear in later outlooks. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the afternoon as a moist (70s dewpoints) airmass east of the highest terrain heats/destabilizes through the day. Though low-level flow will remain weak, and a general lack of large-scale ascent aloft, mid-level northwesterlies at 25 to 30 kt will likely support a few stronger storms through the afternoon/early evening, capable of producing locally damaging winds and hail. ..Goss.. 07/31/2024 Read more

MD 1764 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST IA...NORTHEAST MO...AND WEST-CENTRAL IL
Mesoscale Discussion 1764 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Areas affected...extreme southeast IA...northeast MO...and west-central IL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 311601Z - 311730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Sporadic hail to around 1 inch diameter and locally strong gusts around 40-50 mph are possible the next couple of hours. A watch is not expected at this time. DISCUSSION...Elevated convection in a modest low-level warm advection regime will likely continue the next couple of hours across the discussion area. The airmass directly downstream from thunderstorm clusters across southeast Iowa has been impacted by overnight/morning convection. Temperatures behind the outflow from earlier convection are currently in the upper 60s to low 70s. While modest instability remains given surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F, low-level inhibition will likely remain as the airmass only slowly recovers through early afternoon. Current expectation is that modest instability but favorable vertical shear will continue to support isolated strong (but likely elevated) convection. This activity will mainly pose a risk for hail up to 1 inch diameter and locally strong gusts around 40-50 mph. A severe thunderstorm watch is not currently expected. ..Leitman/Gleason.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 40929190 40429092 39779021 39379028 39149058 39309129 39749224 40139286 40519322 40779316 40959309 41029278 40929190 Read more

WW 0579 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0579 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0579 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0579 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Jul 31 17:02:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current forecast remains valid and on track. See the previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an expansive mid/upper-level ridge over the West, a belt of moderate midlevel south-southwesterly flow will overspread portions of northern CA and western OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. Overall, the breezy surface winds appear too localized for an Elevated area, owing to a weak surface pressure gradient across the area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more