Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Broad mid-level troughing off the U.S. West Coast and associated southwesterly flow is expected to phase with a subtle shortwave trough moving northward along the periphery of a ridge centered over the Western U.S. As the offshore trough moves eastward and the shortwave becomes absorbed into the broader flow, an extended period of isolated dry thunderstorms is expected beginning D3/Friday and persisting through at least D6/Monday. ...D3/Friday... Two regions for isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence have come into focus: One over the Sierra Nevada, and one over central/eastern Oregon and Washington. The Sierra Nevada may experience a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms given higher forecast PWAT values. However, storm motions of 30 kts and modest to extremely receptive fuels will limit wetting rainfall and could result in efficient lightning-based ignitions. In the Pacific Northwest, there is still some uncertainty in the overall coverage of dry thunderstorms, with a potential minima in coverage along the OR/WA border. The greatest chances for dry lightning appears to be in Central Oregon and portions of Northern Washington, where forecast profiles for buoyancy are maximized over dry, deeply mixed boundary layers, and fuels are receptive. ...D4/Saturday through D6/Monday... The greatest chances for dry lightning occurrence are on D4/Saturday across the Sierra Nevada into the Northwest, and persisting across the Northwest into Montana on Sunday. While some uncertainty remains on the timing of upper-level forcing, as well as the extent of cloud cover across the area, dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels appear likely. On D5/Sunday, storm motions are forecast to be at or above 30 kts, which may limit any additional wetting rainfall. The moisture and flow associated with this system will persist D6/Monday across far eastern portions of WA/OR into western MT. There is some indication of dry/windy conditions across the Snake River Plain on D5/Sunday, and portions of N CA into S OR on D6/Monday, but uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes highlights at this time. ...D7/Tuesday and D8/Wednesday... Some chances for dry thunderstorms could linger across portions of the Northwest into the Northern Rockies on D7/Tuesday. There is also some indication of dry/windy conditions returning to the Northwest. However, the uncertainties in the forecast guidance preclude the introduction of any highlight areas at this time, though will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Broad mid-level troughing off the U.S. West Coast and associated southwesterly flow is expected to phase with a subtle shortwave trough moving northward along the periphery of a ridge centered over the Western U.S. As the offshore trough moves eastward and the shortwave becomes absorbed into the broader flow, an extended period of isolated dry thunderstorms is expected beginning D3/Friday and persisting through at least D6/Monday. ...D3/Friday... Two regions for isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence have come into focus: One over the Sierra Nevada, and one over central/eastern Oregon and Washington. The Sierra Nevada may experience a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms given higher forecast PWAT values. However, storm motions of 30 kts and modest to extremely receptive fuels will limit wetting rainfall and could result in efficient lightning-based ignitions. In the Pacific Northwest, there is still some uncertainty in the overall coverage of dry thunderstorms, with a potential minima in coverage along the OR/WA border. The greatest chances for dry lightning appears to be in Central Oregon and portions of Northern Washington, where forecast profiles for buoyancy are maximized over dry, deeply mixed boundary layers, and fuels are receptive. ...D4/Saturday through D6/Monday... The greatest chances for dry lightning occurrence are on D4/Saturday across the Sierra Nevada into the Northwest, and persisting across the Northwest into Montana on Sunday. While some uncertainty remains on the timing of upper-level forcing, as well as the extent of cloud cover across the area, dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels appear likely. On D5/Sunday, storm motions are forecast to be at or above 30 kts, which may limit any additional wetting rainfall. The moisture and flow associated with this system will persist D6/Monday across far eastern portions of WA/OR into western MT. There is some indication of dry/windy conditions across the Snake River Plain on D5/Sunday, and portions of N CA into S OR on D6/Monday, but uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes highlights at this time. ...D7/Tuesday and D8/Wednesday... Some chances for dry thunderstorms could linger across portions of the Northwest into the Northern Rockies on D7/Tuesday. There is also some indication of dry/windy conditions returning to the Northwest. However, the uncertainties in the forecast guidance preclude the introduction of any highlight areas at this time, though will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Broad mid-level troughing off the U.S. West Coast and associated southwesterly flow is expected to phase with a subtle shortwave trough moving northward along the periphery of a ridge centered over the Western U.S. As the offshore trough moves eastward and the shortwave becomes absorbed into the broader flow, an extended period of isolated dry thunderstorms is expected beginning D3/Friday and persisting through at least D6/Monday. ...D3/Friday... Two regions for isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence have come into focus: One over the Sierra Nevada, and one over central/eastern Oregon and Washington. The Sierra Nevada may experience a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms given higher forecast PWAT values. However, storm motions of 30 kts and modest to extremely receptive fuels will limit wetting rainfall and could result in efficient lightning-based ignitions. In the Pacific Northwest, there is still some uncertainty in the overall coverage of dry thunderstorms, with a potential minima in coverage along the OR/WA border. The greatest chances for dry lightning appears to be in Central Oregon and portions of Northern Washington, where forecast profiles for buoyancy are maximized over dry, deeply mixed boundary layers, and fuels are receptive. ...D4/Saturday through D6/Monday... The greatest chances for dry lightning occurrence are on D4/Saturday across the Sierra Nevada into the Northwest, and persisting across the Northwest into Montana on Sunday. While some uncertainty remains on the timing of upper-level forcing, as well as the extent of cloud cover across the area, dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels appear likely. On D5/Sunday, storm motions are forecast to be at or above 30 kts, which may limit any additional wetting rainfall. The moisture and flow associated with this system will persist D6/Monday across far eastern portions of WA/OR into western MT. There is some indication of dry/windy conditions across the Snake River Plain on D5/Sunday, and portions of N CA into S OR on D6/Monday, but uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes highlights at this time. ...D7/Tuesday and D8/Wednesday... Some chances for dry thunderstorms could linger across portions of the Northwest into the Northern Rockies on D7/Tuesday. There is also some indication of dry/windy conditions returning to the Northwest. However, the uncertainties in the forecast guidance preclude the introduction of any highlight areas at this time, though will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Broad mid-level troughing off the U.S. West Coast and associated southwesterly flow is expected to phase with a subtle shortwave trough moving northward along the periphery of a ridge centered over the Western U.S. As the offshore trough moves eastward and the shortwave becomes absorbed into the broader flow, an extended period of isolated dry thunderstorms is expected beginning D3/Friday and persisting through at least D6/Monday. ...D3/Friday... Two regions for isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence have come into focus: One over the Sierra Nevada, and one over central/eastern Oregon and Washington. The Sierra Nevada may experience a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms given higher forecast PWAT values. However, storm motions of 30 kts and modest to extremely receptive fuels will limit wetting rainfall and could result in efficient lightning-based ignitions. In the Pacific Northwest, there is still some uncertainty in the overall coverage of dry thunderstorms, with a potential minima in coverage along the OR/WA border. The greatest chances for dry lightning appears to be in Central Oregon and portions of Northern Washington, where forecast profiles for buoyancy are maximized over dry, deeply mixed boundary layers, and fuels are receptive. ...D4/Saturday through D6/Monday... The greatest chances for dry lightning occurrence are on D4/Saturday across the Sierra Nevada into the Northwest, and persisting across the Northwest into Montana on Sunday. While some uncertainty remains on the timing of upper-level forcing, as well as the extent of cloud cover across the area, dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels appear likely. On D5/Sunday, storm motions are forecast to be at or above 30 kts, which may limit any additional wetting rainfall. The moisture and flow associated with this system will persist D6/Monday across far eastern portions of WA/OR into western MT. There is some indication of dry/windy conditions across the Snake River Plain on D5/Sunday, and portions of N CA into S OR on D6/Monday, but uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes highlights at this time. ...D7/Tuesday and D8/Wednesday... Some chances for dry thunderstorms could linger across portions of the Northwest into the Northern Rockies on D7/Tuesday. There is also some indication of dry/windy conditions returning to the Northwest. However, the uncertainties in the forecast guidance preclude the introduction of any highlight areas at this time, though will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Broad mid-level troughing off the U.S. West Coast and associated southwesterly flow is expected to phase with a subtle shortwave trough moving northward along the periphery of a ridge centered over the Western U.S. As the offshore trough moves eastward and the shortwave becomes absorbed into the broader flow, an extended period of isolated dry thunderstorms is expected beginning D3/Friday and persisting through at least D6/Monday. ...D3/Friday... Two regions for isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence have come into focus: One over the Sierra Nevada, and one over central/eastern Oregon and Washington. The Sierra Nevada may experience a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms given higher forecast PWAT values. However, storm motions of 30 kts and modest to extremely receptive fuels will limit wetting rainfall and could result in efficient lightning-based ignitions. In the Pacific Northwest, there is still some uncertainty in the overall coverage of dry thunderstorms, with a potential minima in coverage along the OR/WA border. The greatest chances for dry lightning appears to be in Central Oregon and portions of Northern Washington, where forecast profiles for buoyancy are maximized over dry, deeply mixed boundary layers, and fuels are receptive. ...D4/Saturday through D6/Monday... The greatest chances for dry lightning occurrence are on D4/Saturday across the Sierra Nevada into the Northwest, and persisting across the Northwest into Montana on Sunday. While some uncertainty remains on the timing of upper-level forcing, as well as the extent of cloud cover across the area, dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels appear likely. On D5/Sunday, storm motions are forecast to be at or above 30 kts, which may limit any additional wetting rainfall. The moisture and flow associated with this system will persist D6/Monday across far eastern portions of WA/OR into western MT. There is some indication of dry/windy conditions across the Snake River Plain on D5/Sunday, and portions of N CA into S OR on D6/Monday, but uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes highlights at this time. ...D7/Tuesday and D8/Wednesday... Some chances for dry thunderstorms could linger across portions of the Northwest into the Northern Rockies on D7/Tuesday. There is also some indication of dry/windy conditions returning to the Northwest. However, the uncertainties in the forecast guidance preclude the introduction of any highlight areas at this time, though will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Broad mid-level troughing off the U.S. West Coast and associated southwesterly flow is expected to phase with a subtle shortwave trough moving northward along the periphery of a ridge centered over the Western U.S. As the offshore trough moves eastward and the shortwave becomes absorbed into the broader flow, an extended period of isolated dry thunderstorms is expected beginning D3/Friday and persisting through at least D6/Monday. ...D3/Friday... Two regions for isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence have come into focus: One over the Sierra Nevada, and one over central/eastern Oregon and Washington. The Sierra Nevada may experience a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms given higher forecast PWAT values. However, storm motions of 30 kts and modest to extremely receptive fuels will limit wetting rainfall and could result in efficient lightning-based ignitions. In the Pacific Northwest, there is still some uncertainty in the overall coverage of dry thunderstorms, with a potential minima in coverage along the OR/WA border. The greatest chances for dry lightning appears to be in Central Oregon and portions of Northern Washington, where forecast profiles for buoyancy are maximized over dry, deeply mixed boundary layers, and fuels are receptive. ...D4/Saturday through D6/Monday... The greatest chances for dry lightning occurrence are on D4/Saturday across the Sierra Nevada into the Northwest, and persisting across the Northwest into Montana on Sunday. While some uncertainty remains on the timing of upper-level forcing, as well as the extent of cloud cover across the area, dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels appear likely. On D5/Sunday, storm motions are forecast to be at or above 30 kts, which may limit any additional wetting rainfall. The moisture and flow associated with this system will persist D6/Monday across far eastern portions of WA/OR into western MT. There is some indication of dry/windy conditions across the Snake River Plain on D5/Sunday, and portions of N CA into S OR on D6/Monday, but uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes highlights at this time. ...D7/Tuesday and D8/Wednesday... Some chances for dry thunderstorms could linger across portions of the Northwest into the Northern Rockies on D7/Tuesday. There is also some indication of dry/windy conditions returning to the Northwest. However, the uncertainties in the forecast guidance preclude the introduction of any highlight areas at this time, though will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Broad mid-level troughing off the U.S. West Coast and associated southwesterly flow is expected to phase with a subtle shortwave trough moving northward along the periphery of a ridge centered over the Western U.S. As the offshore trough moves eastward and the shortwave becomes absorbed into the broader flow, an extended period of isolated dry thunderstorms is expected beginning D3/Friday and persisting through at least D6/Monday. ...D3/Friday... Two regions for isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence have come into focus: One over the Sierra Nevada, and one over central/eastern Oregon and Washington. The Sierra Nevada may experience a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms given higher forecast PWAT values. However, storm motions of 30 kts and modest to extremely receptive fuels will limit wetting rainfall and could result in efficient lightning-based ignitions. In the Pacific Northwest, there is still some uncertainty in the overall coverage of dry thunderstorms, with a potential minima in coverage along the OR/WA border. The greatest chances for dry lightning appears to be in Central Oregon and portions of Northern Washington, where forecast profiles for buoyancy are maximized over dry, deeply mixed boundary layers, and fuels are receptive. ...D4/Saturday through D6/Monday... The greatest chances for dry lightning occurrence are on D4/Saturday across the Sierra Nevada into the Northwest, and persisting across the Northwest into Montana on Sunday. While some uncertainty remains on the timing of upper-level forcing, as well as the extent of cloud cover across the area, dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels appear likely. On D5/Sunday, storm motions are forecast to be at or above 30 kts, which may limit any additional wetting rainfall. The moisture and flow associated with this system will persist D6/Monday across far eastern portions of WA/OR into western MT. There is some indication of dry/windy conditions across the Snake River Plain on D5/Sunday, and portions of N CA into S OR on D6/Monday, but uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes highlights at this time. ...D7/Tuesday and D8/Wednesday... Some chances for dry thunderstorms could linger across portions of the Northwest into the Northern Rockies on D7/Tuesday. There is also some indication of dry/windy conditions returning to the Northwest. However, the uncertainties in the forecast guidance preclude the introduction of any highlight areas at this time, though will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Broad mid-level troughing off the U.S. West Coast and associated southwesterly flow is expected to phase with a subtle shortwave trough moving northward along the periphery of a ridge centered over the Western U.S. As the offshore trough moves eastward and the shortwave becomes absorbed into the broader flow, an extended period of isolated dry thunderstorms is expected beginning D3/Friday and persisting through at least D6/Monday. ...D3/Friday... Two regions for isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence have come into focus: One over the Sierra Nevada, and one over central/eastern Oregon and Washington. The Sierra Nevada may experience a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms given higher forecast PWAT values. However, storm motions of 30 kts and modest to extremely receptive fuels will limit wetting rainfall and could result in efficient lightning-based ignitions. In the Pacific Northwest, there is still some uncertainty in the overall coverage of dry thunderstorms, with a potential minima in coverage along the OR/WA border. The greatest chances for dry lightning appears to be in Central Oregon and portions of Northern Washington, where forecast profiles for buoyancy are maximized over dry, deeply mixed boundary layers, and fuels are receptive. ...D4/Saturday through D6/Monday... The greatest chances for dry lightning occurrence are on D4/Saturday across the Sierra Nevada into the Northwest, and persisting across the Northwest into Montana on Sunday. While some uncertainty remains on the timing of upper-level forcing, as well as the extent of cloud cover across the area, dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels appear likely. On D5/Sunday, storm motions are forecast to be at or above 30 kts, which may limit any additional wetting rainfall. The moisture and flow associated with this system will persist D6/Monday across far eastern portions of WA/OR into western MT. There is some indication of dry/windy conditions across the Snake River Plain on D5/Sunday, and portions of N CA into S OR on D6/Monday, but uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes highlights at this time. ...D7/Tuesday and D8/Wednesday... Some chances for dry thunderstorms could linger across portions of the Northwest into the Northern Rockies on D7/Tuesday. There is also some indication of dry/windy conditions returning to the Northwest. However, the uncertainties in the forecast guidance preclude the introduction of any highlight areas at this time, though will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Broad mid-level troughing off the U.S. West Coast and associated southwesterly flow is expected to phase with a subtle shortwave trough moving northward along the periphery of a ridge centered over the Western U.S. As the offshore trough moves eastward and the shortwave becomes absorbed into the broader flow, an extended period of isolated dry thunderstorms is expected beginning D3/Friday and persisting through at least D6/Monday. ...D3/Friday... Two regions for isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence have come into focus: One over the Sierra Nevada, and one over central/eastern Oregon and Washington. The Sierra Nevada may experience a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms given higher forecast PWAT values. However, storm motions of 30 kts and modest to extremely receptive fuels will limit wetting rainfall and could result in efficient lightning-based ignitions. In the Pacific Northwest, there is still some uncertainty in the overall coverage of dry thunderstorms, with a potential minima in coverage along the OR/WA border. The greatest chances for dry lightning appears to be in Central Oregon and portions of Northern Washington, where forecast profiles for buoyancy are maximized over dry, deeply mixed boundary layers, and fuels are receptive. ...D4/Saturday through D6/Monday... The greatest chances for dry lightning occurrence are on D4/Saturday across the Sierra Nevada into the Northwest, and persisting across the Northwest into Montana on Sunday. While some uncertainty remains on the timing of upper-level forcing, as well as the extent of cloud cover across the area, dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels appear likely. On D5/Sunday, storm motions are forecast to be at or above 30 kts, which may limit any additional wetting rainfall. The moisture and flow associated with this system will persist D6/Monday across far eastern portions of WA/OR into western MT. There is some indication of dry/windy conditions across the Snake River Plain on D5/Sunday, and portions of N CA into S OR on D6/Monday, but uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes highlights at this time. ...D7/Tuesday and D8/Wednesday... Some chances for dry thunderstorms could linger across portions of the Northwest into the Northern Rockies on D7/Tuesday. There is also some indication of dry/windy conditions returning to the Northwest. However, the uncertainties in the forecast guidance preclude the introduction of any highlight areas at this time, though will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Broad mid-level troughing off the U.S. West Coast and associated southwesterly flow is expected to phase with a subtle shortwave trough moving northward along the periphery of a ridge centered over the Western U.S. As the offshore trough moves eastward and the shortwave becomes absorbed into the broader flow, an extended period of isolated dry thunderstorms is expected beginning D3/Friday and persisting through at least D6/Monday. ...D3/Friday... Two regions for isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence have come into focus: One over the Sierra Nevada, and one over central/eastern Oregon and Washington. The Sierra Nevada may experience a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms given higher forecast PWAT values. However, storm motions of 30 kts and modest to extremely receptive fuels will limit wetting rainfall and could result in efficient lightning-based ignitions. In the Pacific Northwest, there is still some uncertainty in the overall coverage of dry thunderstorms, with a potential minima in coverage along the OR/WA border. The greatest chances for dry lightning appears to be in Central Oregon and portions of Northern Washington, where forecast profiles for buoyancy are maximized over dry, deeply mixed boundary layers, and fuels are receptive. ...D4/Saturday through D6/Monday... The greatest chances for dry lightning occurrence are on D4/Saturday across the Sierra Nevada into the Northwest, and persisting across the Northwest into Montana on Sunday. While some uncertainty remains on the timing of upper-level forcing, as well as the extent of cloud cover across the area, dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels appear likely. On D5/Sunday, storm motions are forecast to be at or above 30 kts, which may limit any additional wetting rainfall. The moisture and flow associated with this system will persist D6/Monday across far eastern portions of WA/OR into western MT. There is some indication of dry/windy conditions across the Snake River Plain on D5/Sunday, and portions of N CA into S OR on D6/Monday, but uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes highlights at this time. ...D7/Tuesday and D8/Wednesday... Some chances for dry thunderstorms could linger across portions of the Northwest into the Northern Rockies on D7/Tuesday. There is also some indication of dry/windy conditions returning to the Northwest. However, the uncertainties in the forecast guidance preclude the introduction of any highlight areas at this time, though will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Broad mid-level troughing off the U.S. West Coast and associated southwesterly flow is expected to phase with a subtle shortwave trough moving northward along the periphery of a ridge centered over the Western U.S. As the offshore trough moves eastward and the shortwave becomes absorbed into the broader flow, an extended period of isolated dry thunderstorms is expected beginning D3/Friday and persisting through at least D6/Monday. ...D3/Friday... Two regions for isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence have come into focus: One over the Sierra Nevada, and one over central/eastern Oregon and Washington. The Sierra Nevada may experience a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms given higher forecast PWAT values. However, storm motions of 30 kts and modest to extremely receptive fuels will limit wetting rainfall and could result in efficient lightning-based ignitions. In the Pacific Northwest, there is still some uncertainty in the overall coverage of dry thunderstorms, with a potential minima in coverage along the OR/WA border. The greatest chances for dry lightning appears to be in Central Oregon and portions of Northern Washington, where forecast profiles for buoyancy are maximized over dry, deeply mixed boundary layers, and fuels are receptive. ...D4/Saturday through D6/Monday... The greatest chances for dry lightning occurrence are on D4/Saturday across the Sierra Nevada into the Northwest, and persisting across the Northwest into Montana on Sunday. While some uncertainty remains on the timing of upper-level forcing, as well as the extent of cloud cover across the area, dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels appear likely. On D5/Sunday, storm motions are forecast to be at or above 30 kts, which may limit any additional wetting rainfall. The moisture and flow associated with this system will persist D6/Monday across far eastern portions of WA/OR into western MT. There is some indication of dry/windy conditions across the Snake River Plain on D5/Sunday, and portions of N CA into S OR on D6/Monday, but uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes highlights at this time. ...D7/Tuesday and D8/Wednesday... Some chances for dry thunderstorms could linger across portions of the Northwest into the Northern Rockies on D7/Tuesday. There is also some indication of dry/windy conditions returning to the Northwest. However, the uncertainties in the forecast guidance preclude the introduction of any highlight areas at this time, though will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Broad mid-level troughing off the U.S. West Coast and associated southwesterly flow is expected to phase with a subtle shortwave trough moving northward along the periphery of a ridge centered over the Western U.S. As the offshore trough moves eastward and the shortwave becomes absorbed into the broader flow, an extended period of isolated dry thunderstorms is expected beginning D3/Friday and persisting through at least D6/Monday. ...D3/Friday... Two regions for isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence have come into focus: One over the Sierra Nevada, and one over central/eastern Oregon and Washington. The Sierra Nevada may experience a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms given higher forecast PWAT values. However, storm motions of 30 kts and modest to extremely receptive fuels will limit wetting rainfall and could result in efficient lightning-based ignitions. In the Pacific Northwest, there is still some uncertainty in the overall coverage of dry thunderstorms, with a potential minima in coverage along the OR/WA border. The greatest chances for dry lightning appears to be in Central Oregon and portions of Northern Washington, where forecast profiles for buoyancy are maximized over dry, deeply mixed boundary layers, and fuels are receptive. ...D4/Saturday through D6/Monday... The greatest chances for dry lightning occurrence are on D4/Saturday across the Sierra Nevada into the Northwest, and persisting across the Northwest into Montana on Sunday. While some uncertainty remains on the timing of upper-level forcing, as well as the extent of cloud cover across the area, dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels appear likely. On D5/Sunday, storm motions are forecast to be at or above 30 kts, which may limit any additional wetting rainfall. The moisture and flow associated with this system will persist D6/Monday across far eastern portions of WA/OR into western MT. There is some indication of dry/windy conditions across the Snake River Plain on D5/Sunday, and portions of N CA into S OR on D6/Monday, but uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes highlights at this time. ...D7/Tuesday and D8/Wednesday... Some chances for dry thunderstorms could linger across portions of the Northwest into the Northern Rockies on D7/Tuesday. There is also some indication of dry/windy conditions returning to the Northwest. However, the uncertainties in the forecast guidance preclude the introduction of any highlight areas at this time, though will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Broad mid-level troughing off the U.S. West Coast and associated southwesterly flow is expected to phase with a subtle shortwave trough moving northward along the periphery of a ridge centered over the Western U.S. As the offshore trough moves eastward and the shortwave becomes absorbed into the broader flow, an extended period of isolated dry thunderstorms is expected beginning D3/Friday and persisting through at least D6/Monday. ...D3/Friday... Two regions for isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence have come into focus: One over the Sierra Nevada, and one over central/eastern Oregon and Washington. The Sierra Nevada may experience a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms given higher forecast PWAT values. However, storm motions of 30 kts and modest to extremely receptive fuels will limit wetting rainfall and could result in efficient lightning-based ignitions. In the Pacific Northwest, there is still some uncertainty in the overall coverage of dry thunderstorms, with a potential minima in coverage along the OR/WA border. The greatest chances for dry lightning appears to be in Central Oregon and portions of Northern Washington, where forecast profiles for buoyancy are maximized over dry, deeply mixed boundary layers, and fuels are receptive. ...D4/Saturday through D6/Monday... The greatest chances for dry lightning occurrence are on D4/Saturday across the Sierra Nevada into the Northwest, and persisting across the Northwest into Montana on Sunday. While some uncertainty remains on the timing of upper-level forcing, as well as the extent of cloud cover across the area, dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels appear likely. On D5/Sunday, storm motions are forecast to be at or above 30 kts, which may limit any additional wetting rainfall. The moisture and flow associated with this system will persist D6/Monday across far eastern portions of WA/OR into western MT. There is some indication of dry/windy conditions across the Snake River Plain on D5/Sunday, and portions of N CA into S OR on D6/Monday, but uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes highlights at this time. ...D7/Tuesday and D8/Wednesday... Some chances for dry thunderstorms could linger across portions of the Northwest into the Northern Rockies on D7/Tuesday. There is also some indication of dry/windy conditions returning to the Northwest. However, the uncertainties in the forecast guidance preclude the introduction of any highlight areas at this time, though will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Broad mid-level troughing off the U.S. West Coast and associated southwesterly flow is expected to phase with a subtle shortwave trough moving northward along the periphery of a ridge centered over the Western U.S. As the offshore trough moves eastward and the shortwave becomes absorbed into the broader flow, an extended period of isolated dry thunderstorms is expected beginning D3/Friday and persisting through at least D6/Monday. ...D3/Friday... Two regions for isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence have come into focus: One over the Sierra Nevada, and one over central/eastern Oregon and Washington. The Sierra Nevada may experience a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms given higher forecast PWAT values. However, storm motions of 30 kts and modest to extremely receptive fuels will limit wetting rainfall and could result in efficient lightning-based ignitions. In the Pacific Northwest, there is still some uncertainty in the overall coverage of dry thunderstorms, with a potential minima in coverage along the OR/WA border. The greatest chances for dry lightning appears to be in Central Oregon and portions of Northern Washington, where forecast profiles for buoyancy are maximized over dry, deeply mixed boundary layers, and fuels are receptive. ...D4/Saturday through D6/Monday... The greatest chances for dry lightning occurrence are on D4/Saturday across the Sierra Nevada into the Northwest, and persisting across the Northwest into Montana on Sunday. While some uncertainty remains on the timing of upper-level forcing, as well as the extent of cloud cover across the area, dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels appear likely. On D5/Sunday, storm motions are forecast to be at or above 30 kts, which may limit any additional wetting rainfall. The moisture and flow associated with this system will persist D6/Monday across far eastern portions of WA/OR into western MT. There is some indication of dry/windy conditions across the Snake River Plain on D5/Sunday, and portions of N CA into S OR on D6/Monday, but uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes highlights at this time. ...D7/Tuesday and D8/Wednesday... Some chances for dry thunderstorms could linger across portions of the Northwest into the Northern Rockies on D7/Tuesday. There is also some indication of dry/windy conditions returning to the Northwest. However, the uncertainties in the forecast guidance preclude the introduction of any highlight areas at this time, though will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Broad mid-level troughing off the U.S. West Coast and associated southwesterly flow is expected to phase with a subtle shortwave trough moving northward along the periphery of a ridge centered over the Western U.S. As the offshore trough moves eastward and the shortwave becomes absorbed into the broader flow, an extended period of isolated dry thunderstorms is expected beginning D3/Friday and persisting through at least D6/Monday. ...D3/Friday... Two regions for isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence have come into focus: One over the Sierra Nevada, and one over central/eastern Oregon and Washington. The Sierra Nevada may experience a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms given higher forecast PWAT values. However, storm motions of 30 kts and modest to extremely receptive fuels will limit wetting rainfall and could result in efficient lightning-based ignitions. In the Pacific Northwest, there is still some uncertainty in the overall coverage of dry thunderstorms, with a potential minima in coverage along the OR/WA border. The greatest chances for dry lightning appears to be in Central Oregon and portions of Northern Washington, where forecast profiles for buoyancy are maximized over dry, deeply mixed boundary layers, and fuels are receptive. ...D4/Saturday through D6/Monday... The greatest chances for dry lightning occurrence are on D4/Saturday across the Sierra Nevada into the Northwest, and persisting across the Northwest into Montana on Sunday. While some uncertainty remains on the timing of upper-level forcing, as well as the extent of cloud cover across the area, dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels appear likely. On D5/Sunday, storm motions are forecast to be at or above 30 kts, which may limit any additional wetting rainfall. The moisture and flow associated with this system will persist D6/Monday across far eastern portions of WA/OR into western MT. There is some indication of dry/windy conditions across the Snake River Plain on D5/Sunday, and portions of N CA into S OR on D6/Monday, but uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes highlights at this time. ...D7/Tuesday and D8/Wednesday... Some chances for dry thunderstorms could linger across portions of the Northwest into the Northern Rockies on D7/Tuesday. There is also some indication of dry/windy conditions returning to the Northwest. However, the uncertainties in the forecast guidance preclude the introduction of any highlight areas at this time, though will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Broad mid-level troughing off the U.S. West Coast and associated southwesterly flow is expected to phase with a subtle shortwave trough moving northward along the periphery of a ridge centered over the Western U.S. As the offshore trough moves eastward and the shortwave becomes absorbed into the broader flow, an extended period of isolated dry thunderstorms is expected beginning D3/Friday and persisting through at least D6/Monday. ...D3/Friday... Two regions for isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence have come into focus: One over the Sierra Nevada, and one over central/eastern Oregon and Washington. The Sierra Nevada may experience a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms given higher forecast PWAT values. However, storm motions of 30 kts and modest to extremely receptive fuels will limit wetting rainfall and could result in efficient lightning-based ignitions. In the Pacific Northwest, there is still some uncertainty in the overall coverage of dry thunderstorms, with a potential minima in coverage along the OR/WA border. The greatest chances for dry lightning appears to be in Central Oregon and portions of Northern Washington, where forecast profiles for buoyancy are maximized over dry, deeply mixed boundary layers, and fuels are receptive. ...D4/Saturday through D6/Monday... The greatest chances for dry lightning occurrence are on D4/Saturday across the Sierra Nevada into the Northwest, and persisting across the Northwest into Montana on Sunday. While some uncertainty remains on the timing of upper-level forcing, as well as the extent of cloud cover across the area, dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels appear likely. On D5/Sunday, storm motions are forecast to be at or above 30 kts, which may limit any additional wetting rainfall. The moisture and flow associated with this system will persist D6/Monday across far eastern portions of WA/OR into western MT. There is some indication of dry/windy conditions across the Snake River Plain on D5/Sunday, and portions of N CA into S OR on D6/Monday, but uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes highlights at this time. ...D7/Tuesday and D8/Wednesday... Some chances for dry thunderstorms could linger across portions of the Northwest into the Northern Rockies on D7/Tuesday. There is also some indication of dry/windy conditions returning to the Northwest. However, the uncertainties in the forecast guidance preclude the introduction of any highlight areas at this time, though will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Broad mid-level troughing off the U.S. West Coast and associated southwesterly flow is expected to phase with a subtle shortwave trough moving northward along the periphery of a ridge centered over the Western U.S. As the offshore trough moves eastward and the shortwave becomes absorbed into the broader flow, an extended period of isolated dry thunderstorms is expected beginning D3/Friday and persisting through at least D6/Monday. ...D3/Friday... Two regions for isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence have come into focus: One over the Sierra Nevada, and one over central/eastern Oregon and Washington. The Sierra Nevada may experience a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms given higher forecast PWAT values. However, storm motions of 30 kts and modest to extremely receptive fuels will limit wetting rainfall and could result in efficient lightning-based ignitions. In the Pacific Northwest, there is still some uncertainty in the overall coverage of dry thunderstorms, with a potential minima in coverage along the OR/WA border. The greatest chances for dry lightning appears to be in Central Oregon and portions of Northern Washington, where forecast profiles for buoyancy are maximized over dry, deeply mixed boundary layers, and fuels are receptive. ...D4/Saturday through D6/Monday... The greatest chances for dry lightning occurrence are on D4/Saturday across the Sierra Nevada into the Northwest, and persisting across the Northwest into Montana on Sunday. While some uncertainty remains on the timing of upper-level forcing, as well as the extent of cloud cover across the area, dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels appear likely. On D5/Sunday, storm motions are forecast to be at or above 30 kts, which may limit any additional wetting rainfall. The moisture and flow associated with this system will persist D6/Monday across far eastern portions of WA/OR into western MT. There is some indication of dry/windy conditions across the Snake River Plain on D5/Sunday, and portions of N CA into S OR on D6/Monday, but uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes highlights at this time. ...D7/Tuesday and D8/Wednesday... Some chances for dry thunderstorms could linger across portions of the Northwest into the Northern Rockies on D7/Tuesday. There is also some indication of dry/windy conditions returning to the Northwest. However, the uncertainties in the forecast guidance preclude the introduction of any highlight areas at this time, though will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1770 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 580... FOR FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 1770 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Areas affected...far southern Indiana into central Kentucky Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 580... Valid 311947Z - 312145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 580 continues. SUMMARY...The damaging/severe wind threat should remain focused across southern Indiana into central Kentucky for the next few hours as a consolidated cold pool becomes established. DISCUSSION...A consolidating cold pool is becoming evident in recent KLVX velocity imagery roughly along the OH River. This may be the start of a somewhat more organized MCS that will pose a relatively focused wind threat to areas downstream - namely central KY. To the southeast of the developing MCS, a more broken, meridionally-oriented, line of disorganized convection is delineating the western edge of a residual cold pool from prior convection where temperatures remain in the 70s and stable billow clouds are noted in visible imagery. As such, the developing MCS will likely continue to propagate south/southeast where buoyancy remains very favorable for convective maintenance (MLCAPE values in the 2000-3000 J/kg range). Limited line-orthogonal deep-layer wind shear may be a modulating factor to overall convective intensity given west/northwest deep-layer wind shear vectors, but the high-CAPE environment and surging cold pool should continue to support a damaging/severe wind threat for the next few hours. ..Moore.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK... LAT...LON 38058673 38258662 38388630 38408588 38338555 38208528 37318465 37218483 37138507 37078544 37078574 37108610 37218636 38058673 Read more

WW 0580 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 580 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW BWG TO 45 E OWB TO 15 NW SDF TO 35 ESE IND. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1770 ..MOORE..07/31/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...IND...LMK...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 580 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC019-029-031-043-077-079-115-137-143-155-312140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK DEARBORN DECATUR FLOYD JEFFERSON JENNINGS OHIO RIPLEY SCOTT SWITZERLAND KYC005-015-017-021-023-029-037-041-045-049-067-073-077-079-081- 085-087-093-097-099-103-111-113-117-123-137-151-155-163-167-179- 181-185-187-191-201-209-211-215-217-223-229-239-312140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BOONE BOURBON BOYLE BRACKEN BULLITT CAMPBELL CARROLL CASEY CLARK FAYETTE FRANKLIN GALLATIN GARRARD GRANT Read more

WW 0580 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 580 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW BWG TO 45 E OWB TO 15 NW SDF TO 35 ESE IND. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1770 ..MOORE..07/31/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...IND...LMK...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 580 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC019-029-031-043-077-079-115-137-143-155-312140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK DEARBORN DECATUR FLOYD JEFFERSON JENNINGS OHIO RIPLEY SCOTT SWITZERLAND KYC005-015-017-021-023-029-037-041-045-049-067-073-077-079-081- 085-087-093-097-099-103-111-113-117-123-137-151-155-163-167-179- 181-185-187-191-201-209-211-215-217-223-229-239-312140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BOONE BOURBON BOYLE BRACKEN BULLITT CAMPBELL CARROLL CASEY CLARK FAYETTE FRANKLIN GALLATIN GARRARD GRANT Read more