Severe Storms

WW 0586 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 586 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..08/01/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 586 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC059-119-143-010340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DICKINSON LYON OSCEOLA MNC033-063-081-083-101-105-117-133-010340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COTTONWOOD JACKSON LINCOLN LYON MURRAY NOBLES PIPESTONE ROCK SDC009-011-023-035-043-053-061-067-079-083-087-097-099-101-125- 135-010340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BON HOMME BROOKINGS CHARLES MIX DAVISON DOUGLAS GREGORY Read more

WW 0585 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 585 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N OTG TO 20 E RWF TO 20 SSW STC. ..BROYLES..08/01/24 ATTN...WFO...ABR...MPX...ARX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 585 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC013-015-019-037-039-043-045-047-049-055-079-085-091-099-103- 109-131-139-143-147-157-161-165-169-010340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH BROWN CARVER DAKOTA DODGE FARIBAULT FILLMORE FREEBORN GOODHUE HOUSTON LE SUEUR MCLEOD MARTIN MOWER NICOLLET OLMSTED RICE SCOTT SIBLEY STEELE WABASHA WASECA WATONWAN WINONA WIC011-121-010340- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUFFALO TREMPEALEAU THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0585 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 585 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N OTG TO 20 E RWF TO 20 SSW STC. ..BROYLES..08/01/24 ATTN...WFO...ABR...MPX...ARX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 585 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC013-015-019-037-039-043-045-047-049-055-079-085-091-099-103- 109-131-139-143-147-157-161-165-169-010340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH BROWN CARVER DAKOTA DODGE FARIBAULT FILLMORE FREEBORN GOODHUE HOUSTON LE SUEUR MCLEOD MARTIN MOWER NICOLLET OLMSTED RICE SCOTT SIBLEY STEELE WABASHA WASECA WATONWAN WINONA WIC011-121-010340- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUFFALO TREMPEALEAU THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0587 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0587 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0587 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0587 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0584 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 584 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW STJ TO 35 ENE LWD TO 20 ENE DSM TO 20 ESE FOD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1778 ..WEINMAN..08/01/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 584 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC007-051-053-099-117-123-125-127-135-157-169-171-179-185- 010340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPANOOSE DAVIS DECATUR JASPER LUCAS MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL MONROE POWESHIEK STORY TAMA WAPELLO WAYNE MOC075-081-129-171-227-010340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GENTRY HARRISON MERCER PUTNAM WORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0584 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 584 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW STJ TO 35 ENE LWD TO 20 ENE DSM TO 20 ESE FOD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1778 ..WEINMAN..08/01/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 584 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC007-051-053-099-117-123-125-127-135-157-169-171-179-185- 010340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPANOOSE DAVIS DECATUR JASPER LUCAS MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL MONROE POWESHIEK STORY TAMA WAPELLO WAYNE MOC075-081-129-171-227-010340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GENTRY HARRISON MERCER PUTNAM WORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0583 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 583 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE GCK TO 15 NNE MHK TO 20 SE BIE. ..WEINMAN..08/01/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 583 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-009-013-017-031-041-045-053-059-061-079-085-087-111-113- 115-127-131-139-145-149-155-159-161-169-177-185-197-010340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BARTON BROWN CHASE COFFEY DICKINSON DOUGLAS ELLSWORTH FRANKLIN GEARY HARVEY JACKSON JEFFERSON LYON MCPHERSON MARION MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE PAWNEE POTTAWATOMIE RENO RICE RILEY SALINE SHAWNEE STAFFORD WABAUNSEE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0583 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 583 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE GCK TO 15 NNE MHK TO 20 SE BIE. ..WEINMAN..08/01/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 583 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-009-013-017-031-041-045-053-059-061-079-085-087-111-113- 115-127-131-139-145-149-155-159-161-169-177-185-197-010340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BARTON BROWN CHASE COFFEY DICKINSON DOUGLAS ELLSWORTH FRANKLIN GEARY HARVEY JACKSON JEFFERSON LYON MCPHERSON MARION MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE PAWNEE POTTAWATOMIE RENO RICE RILEY SALINE SHAWNEE STAFFORD WABAUNSEE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1776 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1776 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Areas affected...Southeast South Dakota...Far Southwest Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 312356Z - 010200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A severe threat may develop over part of southeastern South Dakota over the next couple of hours. The severe threat may also impact far southwest Minnesota later this evening. Large hail, damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat will be possible with the stronger storms. DISCUSSION...Over the last hour, mosaic radar imagery shows the development of isolated strong storms about 50 to 60 statute miles to the southwest of Sioux Falls. The storms are located to the southwest of a pocket of extreme instability, where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 4000 to 5500 J/kg range. In addition to the instability, the storms are being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a northern Plains shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery. Short-term model forecasts including the HRRR, suggest that the storms will grow upscale into a larger convective cluster, moving into southwestern Minnesota later this evening. The instability, combined with moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates (shown by the RAP), suggest that supercell formation will be possible. Supercells will likely be associated with large hail and isolated severe wind gusts. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. A transition to a more linear structure will be possible as low-level flow increases, especially if a cold pool can organize. ..Broyles/Smith.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 43269577 43009676 42999757 43019841 43049881 43109909 43209921 43269929 43469936 43649931 43879910 44189864 44429798 44709677 44549553 43759509 43269577 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST SD INTO SOUTHERN MN...CENTRAL/EASTERN IA...AND FAR NORTHERN MO... CORRECTED FOR HAIL GRAPHICS ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of severe/damaging gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two remain possible this evening into the overnight from the central/northern Plains into parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. ...Central/northern Plains into parts of the Midwest... Strong to extreme instability remains in place this evening across parts of the central and northern Plains into parts of the mid/upper MS Valley. An intense bowing storm cluster with a history of 70-90 mph gusts is currently approaching central Iowa, with other intense cells/clusters ongoing across parts of eastern SD into southern MN, and also across central/northern KS. Moderate deep-layer flow/shear attendant to a seasonably strong shortwave trough over the northern Plains will continue to support organized severe potential through the evening, and potentially into the overnight hours. Uncertainty remains regarding the evolution/longevity of ongoing storm clusters, and the potential for additional upscale growth. Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a threat of large to very large hail and localized severe gusts. A tornado or two is also possible, especially across southeast SD into northwest IA and southwest MN, where very rich low-level moisture and backed surface winds are in place. The bowing segment across IA will likely continue to pose a threat for severe/damaging gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) through central and potentially into eastern IA. Some upscale growth is possible with ongoing storms across MN/southeast SD, and also across northern KS, which would also pose a threat of severe/damaging gusts, potentially in excess of 75 mph. Eventually, one or more upscale-growing clusters could spread east-southeastward into parts of MO/IL/IN overnight, with some continued threat of damaging wind. A line-embedded tornado or two will also be possible with any intense bowing segments tonight. ...Parts of the OH Valley into the southern Appalachians... A weakening storm complex moving southeastward across southeast KY/eastern TN could pose a short-term threat of damaging wind. Farther northwest, moderate to strong buoyancy persists across parts of southern IL/IN, and there will be some potential for a few stronger storms through the evening. Any upstream MCS development across MO could eventually spread into parts of the OH Valley, with some damaging-wind potential. ...Southwest AZ vicinity... High-based convection may continue to pose a threat for strong to locally severe gusts across parts of southwest AZ into the lower CO River Valley through late evening, before convection diminishes overnight. ..Dean.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST SD INTO SOUTHERN MN...CENTRAL/EASTERN IA...AND FAR NORTHERN MO... CORRECTED FOR HAIL GRAPHICS ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of severe/damaging gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two remain possible this evening into the overnight from the central/northern Plains into parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. ...Central/northern Plains into parts of the Midwest... Strong to extreme instability remains in place this evening across parts of the central and northern Plains into parts of the mid/upper MS Valley. An intense bowing storm cluster with a history of 70-90 mph gusts is currently approaching central Iowa, with other intense cells/clusters ongoing across parts of eastern SD into southern MN, and also across central/northern KS. Moderate deep-layer flow/shear attendant to a seasonably strong shortwave trough over the northern Plains will continue to support organized severe potential through the evening, and potentially into the overnight hours. Uncertainty remains regarding the evolution/longevity of ongoing storm clusters, and the potential for additional upscale growth. Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a threat of large to very large hail and localized severe gusts. A tornado or two is also possible, especially across southeast SD into northwest IA and southwest MN, where very rich low-level moisture and backed surface winds are in place. The bowing segment across IA will likely continue to pose a threat for severe/damaging gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) through central and potentially into eastern IA. Some upscale growth is possible with ongoing storms across MN/southeast SD, and also across northern KS, which would also pose a threat of severe/damaging gusts, potentially in excess of 75 mph. Eventually, one or more upscale-growing clusters could spread east-southeastward into parts of MO/IL/IN overnight, with some continued threat of damaging wind. A line-embedded tornado or two will also be possible with any intense bowing segments tonight. ...Parts of the OH Valley into the southern Appalachians... A weakening storm complex moving southeastward across southeast KY/eastern TN could pose a short-term threat of damaging wind. Farther northwest, moderate to strong buoyancy persists across parts of southern IL/IN, and there will be some potential for a few stronger storms through the evening. Any upstream MCS development across MO could eventually spread into parts of the OH Valley, with some damaging-wind potential. ...Southwest AZ vicinity... High-based convection may continue to pose a threat for strong to locally severe gusts across parts of southwest AZ into the lower CO River Valley through late evening, before convection diminishes overnight. ..Dean.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST SD INTO SOUTHERN MN...CENTRAL/EASTERN IA...AND FAR NORTHERN MO... CORRECTED FOR HAIL GRAPHICS ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of severe/damaging gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two remain possible this evening into the overnight from the central/northern Plains into parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. ...Central/northern Plains into parts of the Midwest... Strong to extreme instability remains in place this evening across parts of the central and northern Plains into parts of the mid/upper MS Valley. An intense bowing storm cluster with a history of 70-90 mph gusts is currently approaching central Iowa, with other intense cells/clusters ongoing across parts of eastern SD into southern MN, and also across central/northern KS. Moderate deep-layer flow/shear attendant to a seasonably strong shortwave trough over the northern Plains will continue to support organized severe potential through the evening, and potentially into the overnight hours. Uncertainty remains regarding the evolution/longevity of ongoing storm clusters, and the potential for additional upscale growth. Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a threat of large to very large hail and localized severe gusts. A tornado or two is also possible, especially across southeast SD into northwest IA and southwest MN, where very rich low-level moisture and backed surface winds are in place. The bowing segment across IA will likely continue to pose a threat for severe/damaging gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) through central and potentially into eastern IA. Some upscale growth is possible with ongoing storms across MN/southeast SD, and also across northern KS, which would also pose a threat of severe/damaging gusts, potentially in excess of 75 mph. Eventually, one or more upscale-growing clusters could spread east-southeastward into parts of MO/IL/IN overnight, with some continued threat of damaging wind. A line-embedded tornado or two will also be possible with any intense bowing segments tonight. ...Parts of the OH Valley into the southern Appalachians... A weakening storm complex moving southeastward across southeast KY/eastern TN could pose a short-term threat of damaging wind. Farther northwest, moderate to strong buoyancy persists across parts of southern IL/IN, and there will be some potential for a few stronger storms through the evening. Any upstream MCS development across MO could eventually spread into parts of the OH Valley, with some damaging-wind potential. ...Southwest AZ vicinity... High-based convection may continue to pose a threat for strong to locally severe gusts across parts of southwest AZ into the lower CO River Valley through late evening, before convection diminishes overnight. ..Dean.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST SD INTO SOUTHERN MN...CENTRAL/EASTERN IA...AND FAR NORTHERN MO... CORRECTED FOR HAIL GRAPHICS ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of severe/damaging gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two remain possible this evening into the overnight from the central/northern Plains into parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. ...Central/northern Plains into parts of the Midwest... Strong to extreme instability remains in place this evening across parts of the central and northern Plains into parts of the mid/upper MS Valley. An intense bowing storm cluster with a history of 70-90 mph gusts is currently approaching central Iowa, with other intense cells/clusters ongoing across parts of eastern SD into southern MN, and also across central/northern KS. Moderate deep-layer flow/shear attendant to a seasonably strong shortwave trough over the northern Plains will continue to support organized severe potential through the evening, and potentially into the overnight hours. Uncertainty remains regarding the evolution/longevity of ongoing storm clusters, and the potential for additional upscale growth. Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a threat of large to very large hail and localized severe gusts. A tornado or two is also possible, especially across southeast SD into northwest IA and southwest MN, where very rich low-level moisture and backed surface winds are in place. The bowing segment across IA will likely continue to pose a threat for severe/damaging gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) through central and potentially into eastern IA. Some upscale growth is possible with ongoing storms across MN/southeast SD, and also across northern KS, which would also pose a threat of severe/damaging gusts, potentially in excess of 75 mph. Eventually, one or more upscale-growing clusters could spread east-southeastward into parts of MO/IL/IN overnight, with some continued threat of damaging wind. A line-embedded tornado or two will also be possible with any intense bowing segments tonight. ...Parts of the OH Valley into the southern Appalachians... A weakening storm complex moving southeastward across southeast KY/eastern TN could pose a short-term threat of damaging wind. Farther northwest, moderate to strong buoyancy persists across parts of southern IL/IN, and there will be some potential for a few stronger storms through the evening. Any upstream MCS development across MO could eventually spread into parts of the OH Valley, with some damaging-wind potential. ...Southwest AZ vicinity... High-based convection may continue to pose a threat for strong to locally severe gusts across parts of southwest AZ into the lower CO River Valley through late evening, before convection diminishes overnight. ..Dean.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST SD INTO SOUTHERN MN...CENTRAL/EASTERN IA...AND FAR NORTHERN MO... CORRECTED FOR HAIL GRAPHICS ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of severe/damaging gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two remain possible this evening into the overnight from the central/northern Plains into parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. ...Central/northern Plains into parts of the Midwest... Strong to extreme instability remains in place this evening across parts of the central and northern Plains into parts of the mid/upper MS Valley. An intense bowing storm cluster with a history of 70-90 mph gusts is currently approaching central Iowa, with other intense cells/clusters ongoing across parts of eastern SD into southern MN, and also across central/northern KS. Moderate deep-layer flow/shear attendant to a seasonably strong shortwave trough over the northern Plains will continue to support organized severe potential through the evening, and potentially into the overnight hours. Uncertainty remains regarding the evolution/longevity of ongoing storm clusters, and the potential for additional upscale growth. Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a threat of large to very large hail and localized severe gusts. A tornado or two is also possible, especially across southeast SD into northwest IA and southwest MN, where very rich low-level moisture and backed surface winds are in place. The bowing segment across IA will likely continue to pose a threat for severe/damaging gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) through central and potentially into eastern IA. Some upscale growth is possible with ongoing storms across MN/southeast SD, and also across northern KS, which would also pose a threat of severe/damaging gusts, potentially in excess of 75 mph. Eventually, one or more upscale-growing clusters could spread east-southeastward into parts of MO/IL/IN overnight, with some continued threat of damaging wind. A line-embedded tornado or two will also be possible with any intense bowing segments tonight. ...Parts of the OH Valley into the southern Appalachians... A weakening storm complex moving southeastward across southeast KY/eastern TN could pose a short-term threat of damaging wind. Farther northwest, moderate to strong buoyancy persists across parts of southern IL/IN, and there will be some potential for a few stronger storms through the evening. Any upstream MCS development across MO could eventually spread into parts of the OH Valley, with some damaging-wind potential. ...Southwest AZ vicinity... High-based convection may continue to pose a threat for strong to locally severe gusts across parts of southwest AZ into the lower CO River Valley through late evening, before convection diminishes overnight. ..Dean.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST SD INTO SOUTHERN MN...CENTRAL/EASTERN IA...AND FAR NORTHERN MO... CORRECTED FOR HAIL GRAPHICS ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of severe/damaging gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two remain possible this evening into the overnight from the central/northern Plains into parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. ...Central/northern Plains into parts of the Midwest... Strong to extreme instability remains in place this evening across parts of the central and northern Plains into parts of the mid/upper MS Valley. An intense bowing storm cluster with a history of 70-90 mph gusts is currently approaching central Iowa, with other intense cells/clusters ongoing across parts of eastern SD into southern MN, and also across central/northern KS. Moderate deep-layer flow/shear attendant to a seasonably strong shortwave trough over the northern Plains will continue to support organized severe potential through the evening, and potentially into the overnight hours. Uncertainty remains regarding the evolution/longevity of ongoing storm clusters, and the potential for additional upscale growth. Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a threat of large to very large hail and localized severe gusts. A tornado or two is also possible, especially across southeast SD into northwest IA and southwest MN, where very rich low-level moisture and backed surface winds are in place. The bowing segment across IA will likely continue to pose a threat for severe/damaging gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) through central and potentially into eastern IA. Some upscale growth is possible with ongoing storms across MN/southeast SD, and also across northern KS, which would also pose a threat of severe/damaging gusts, potentially in excess of 75 mph. Eventually, one or more upscale-growing clusters could spread east-southeastward into parts of MO/IL/IN overnight, with some continued threat of damaging wind. A line-embedded tornado or two will also be possible with any intense bowing segments tonight. ...Parts of the OH Valley into the southern Appalachians... A weakening storm complex moving southeastward across southeast KY/eastern TN could pose a short-term threat of damaging wind. Farther northwest, moderate to strong buoyancy persists across parts of southern IL/IN, and there will be some potential for a few stronger storms through the evening. Any upstream MCS development across MO could eventually spread into parts of the OH Valley, with some damaging-wind potential. ...Southwest AZ vicinity... High-based convection may continue to pose a threat for strong to locally severe gusts across parts of southwest AZ into the lower CO River Valley through late evening, before convection diminishes overnight. ..Dean.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST SD INTO SOUTHERN MN...CENTRAL/EASTERN IA...AND FAR NORTHERN MO... CORRECTED FOR HAIL GRAPHICS ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of severe/damaging gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two remain possible this evening into the overnight from the central/northern Plains into parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. ...Central/northern Plains into parts of the Midwest... Strong to extreme instability remains in place this evening across parts of the central and northern Plains into parts of the mid/upper MS Valley. An intense bowing storm cluster with a history of 70-90 mph gusts is currently approaching central Iowa, with other intense cells/clusters ongoing across parts of eastern SD into southern MN, and also across central/northern KS. Moderate deep-layer flow/shear attendant to a seasonably strong shortwave trough over the northern Plains will continue to support organized severe potential through the evening, and potentially into the overnight hours. Uncertainty remains regarding the evolution/longevity of ongoing storm clusters, and the potential for additional upscale growth. Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a threat of large to very large hail and localized severe gusts. A tornado or two is also possible, especially across southeast SD into northwest IA and southwest MN, where very rich low-level moisture and backed surface winds are in place. The bowing segment across IA will likely continue to pose a threat for severe/damaging gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) through central and potentially into eastern IA. Some upscale growth is possible with ongoing storms across MN/southeast SD, and also across northern KS, which would also pose a threat of severe/damaging gusts, potentially in excess of 75 mph. Eventually, one or more upscale-growing clusters could spread east-southeastward into parts of MO/IL/IN overnight, with some continued threat of damaging wind. A line-embedded tornado or two will also be possible with any intense bowing segments tonight. ...Parts of the OH Valley into the southern Appalachians... A weakening storm complex moving southeastward across southeast KY/eastern TN could pose a short-term threat of damaging wind. Farther northwest, moderate to strong buoyancy persists across parts of southern IL/IN, and there will be some potential for a few stronger storms through the evening. Any upstream MCS development across MO could eventually spread into parts of the OH Valley, with some damaging-wind potential. ...Southwest AZ vicinity... High-based convection may continue to pose a threat for strong to locally severe gusts across parts of southwest AZ into the lower CO River Valley through late evening, before convection diminishes overnight. ..Dean.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST SD INTO SOUTHERN MN...CENTRAL/EASTERN IA...AND FAR NORTHERN MO... CORRECTED FOR HAIL GRAPHICS ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of severe/damaging gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two remain possible this evening into the overnight from the central/northern Plains into parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. ...Central/northern Plains into parts of the Midwest... Strong to extreme instability remains in place this evening across parts of the central and northern Plains into parts of the mid/upper MS Valley. An intense bowing storm cluster with a history of 70-90 mph gusts is currently approaching central Iowa, with other intense cells/clusters ongoing across parts of eastern SD into southern MN, and also across central/northern KS. Moderate deep-layer flow/shear attendant to a seasonably strong shortwave trough over the northern Plains will continue to support organized severe potential through the evening, and potentially into the overnight hours. Uncertainty remains regarding the evolution/longevity of ongoing storm clusters, and the potential for additional upscale growth. Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a threat of large to very large hail and localized severe gusts. A tornado or two is also possible, especially across southeast SD into northwest IA and southwest MN, where very rich low-level moisture and backed surface winds are in place. The bowing segment across IA will likely continue to pose a threat for severe/damaging gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) through central and potentially into eastern IA. Some upscale growth is possible with ongoing storms across MN/southeast SD, and also across northern KS, which would also pose a threat of severe/damaging gusts, potentially in excess of 75 mph. Eventually, one or more upscale-growing clusters could spread east-southeastward into parts of MO/IL/IN overnight, with some continued threat of damaging wind. A line-embedded tornado or two will also be possible with any intense bowing segments tonight. ...Parts of the OH Valley into the southern Appalachians... A weakening storm complex moving southeastward across southeast KY/eastern TN could pose a short-term threat of damaging wind. Farther northwest, moderate to strong buoyancy persists across parts of southern IL/IN, and there will be some potential for a few stronger storms through the evening. Any upstream MCS development across MO could eventually spread into parts of the OH Valley, with some damaging-wind potential. ...Southwest AZ vicinity... High-based convection may continue to pose a threat for strong to locally severe gusts across parts of southwest AZ into the lower CO River Valley through late evening, before convection diminishes overnight. ..Dean.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST SD INTO SOUTHERN MN...CENTRAL/EASTERN IA...AND FAR NORTHERN MO... CORRECTED FOR HAIL GRAPHICS ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of severe/damaging gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two remain possible this evening into the overnight from the central/northern Plains into parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. ...Central/northern Plains into parts of the Midwest... Strong to extreme instability remains in place this evening across parts of the central and northern Plains into parts of the mid/upper MS Valley. An intense bowing storm cluster with a history of 70-90 mph gusts is currently approaching central Iowa, with other intense cells/clusters ongoing across parts of eastern SD into southern MN, and also across central/northern KS. Moderate deep-layer flow/shear attendant to a seasonably strong shortwave trough over the northern Plains will continue to support organized severe potential through the evening, and potentially into the overnight hours. Uncertainty remains regarding the evolution/longevity of ongoing storm clusters, and the potential for additional upscale growth. Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a threat of large to very large hail and localized severe gusts. A tornado or two is also possible, especially across southeast SD into northwest IA and southwest MN, where very rich low-level moisture and backed surface winds are in place. The bowing segment across IA will likely continue to pose a threat for severe/damaging gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) through central and potentially into eastern IA. Some upscale growth is possible with ongoing storms across MN/southeast SD, and also across northern KS, which would also pose a threat of severe/damaging gusts, potentially in excess of 75 mph. Eventually, one or more upscale-growing clusters could spread east-southeastward into parts of MO/IL/IN overnight, with some continued threat of damaging wind. A line-embedded tornado or two will also be possible with any intense bowing segments tonight. ...Parts of the OH Valley into the southern Appalachians... A weakening storm complex moving southeastward across southeast KY/eastern TN could pose a short-term threat of damaging wind. Farther northwest, moderate to strong buoyancy persists across parts of southern IL/IN, and there will be some potential for a few stronger storms through the evening. Any upstream MCS development across MO could eventually spread into parts of the OH Valley, with some damaging-wind potential. ...Southwest AZ vicinity... High-based convection may continue to pose a threat for strong to locally severe gusts across parts of southwest AZ into the lower CO River Valley through late evening, before convection diminishes overnight. ..Dean.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST SD INTO SOUTHERN MN...CENTRAL/EASTERN IA...AND FAR NORTHERN MO... CORRECTED FOR HAIL GRAPHICS ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of severe/damaging gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two remain possible this evening into the overnight from the central/northern Plains into parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. ...Central/northern Plains into parts of the Midwest... Strong to extreme instability remains in place this evening across parts of the central and northern Plains into parts of the mid/upper MS Valley. An intense bowing storm cluster with a history of 70-90 mph gusts is currently approaching central Iowa, with other intense cells/clusters ongoing across parts of eastern SD into southern MN, and also across central/northern KS. Moderate deep-layer flow/shear attendant to a seasonably strong shortwave trough over the northern Plains will continue to support organized severe potential through the evening, and potentially into the overnight hours. Uncertainty remains regarding the evolution/longevity of ongoing storm clusters, and the potential for additional upscale growth. Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a threat of large to very large hail and localized severe gusts. A tornado or two is also possible, especially across southeast SD into northwest IA and southwest MN, where very rich low-level moisture and backed surface winds are in place. The bowing segment across IA will likely continue to pose a threat for severe/damaging gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) through central and potentially into eastern IA. Some upscale growth is possible with ongoing storms across MN/southeast SD, and also across northern KS, which would also pose a threat of severe/damaging gusts, potentially in excess of 75 mph. Eventually, one or more upscale-growing clusters could spread east-southeastward into parts of MO/IL/IN overnight, with some continued threat of damaging wind. A line-embedded tornado or two will also be possible with any intense bowing segments tonight. ...Parts of the OH Valley into the southern Appalachians... A weakening storm complex moving southeastward across southeast KY/eastern TN could pose a short-term threat of damaging wind. Farther northwest, moderate to strong buoyancy persists across parts of southern IL/IN, and there will be some potential for a few stronger storms through the evening. Any upstream MCS development across MO could eventually spread into parts of the OH Valley, with some damaging-wind potential. ...Southwest AZ vicinity... High-based convection may continue to pose a threat for strong to locally severe gusts across parts of southwest AZ into the lower CO River Valley through late evening, before convection diminishes overnight. ..Dean.. 08/01/2024 Read more