Severe Storms

WW 0584 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0584 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1775 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 582... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NE AND SOUTHWESTERN IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1775 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0604 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Areas affected...Parts of southeastern NE and southwestern IA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 582... Valid 312304Z - 010000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 582 continues. SUMMARY...A swath of 75-90 mph wind gusts is possible with an MCS moving eastward across southeastern Nebraska into southwestern IA through at least 01Z. DISCUSSION...As of 2250Z, radar data from KOAX indicates a well-organized, forward-propagating MCS tracking east-northeastward across southeastern NE into southwestern IA at around 45 kt. This MCS has a well-established rear-inflow jet and northern book-end vortex. Wind gusts upwards of 80-90 mph have been reported with the MCS in southeastern NE. Downstream, extreme surface-based instability (4000-4500 J/kg MLCAPE) and around 40 kt of deep-layer shear (per VWP data) oriented perpendicular the gust front should support the maintenance of this MCS across southeastern IA through at least 01Z. Wind gusts of 75-90 mph are the main concern, and brief mesovortex tornadoes will also remain possible. ..Weinman.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX... LAT...LON 41149604 41509632 41759621 42089581 42199529 42189496 42099459 41539423 40909446 40639503 40539567 40689597 41149604 Read more

MD 1774 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1774 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0532 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the Texas Panhandle into the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 312232Z - 010000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms will be capable of producing locally severe downbursts (55-65 mph) and marginally severe hail (around 1 inch) through around 00Z. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are evolving along/immediately ahead of a lee trough/dryline feature -- where temperatures have warmed into the lower 100s F amid lower 60s dewpoints. Associated steep low-level lapse rates and moderate surface-based instability will support locally severe downbursts (55-65 mph) and perhaps an instance or two of hail around 1 inch. Given around 25 kt of deep-layer shear (per AMA VWP and latest mesoanalysis), storm longevity should be limited, and the overall severe threat should remain fairly isolated. ..Weinman/Smith.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 35140292 35440248 36120178 36770096 36800055 36570020 36110032 35710071 34350253 34240288 34430326 34780325 35140292 Read more

MD 1772 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN IA...NORTHWESTERN MO...AND NORTHEASTERN INTO CENTRAL KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1772 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0512 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Areas affected...Parts of southwestern IA...northwestern MO...and northeastern into central KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 312212Z - 010015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued within the next hour or two, as clusters of severe storms continue eastward. Severe wind gusts and large hail will be the main concerns. DISCUSSION...Clusters of severe storms are ongoing across southeastern NE into northern KS as of 22Z -- ahead of an eastward-moving cold front. 40-50 kt of effective shear and strong to extreme surface-based instability are supporting a mix of organized multicells and supercell clusters, which have produced severe wind gusts upwards of 65-85 mph and large hail in the 1.5-1.75 inch range (one isolated report of 4 inches in Phillips County, KS earlier). Over the next several hours, these storms will continue tracking eastward within a favorable environment for continued organized storms, including organized upscale-growing multicells and supercell clusters. Severe wind gusts (65-85 mph) and very large hail to around 2.5 inches will be the main concerns. A watch will likely be issued within an hour or two. ..Weinman/Smith.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 39049944 39179888 39469759 39809670 40369582 40929544 41569548 41839493 41889421 41709352 41219327 40499319 39629360 39089444 38239708 38059831 38069915 38559982 38799987 39049944 Read more

MD 1773 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 579... FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1773 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0518 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Areas affected...Northeast South Dakota...Southern and Central Minnesota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 579... Valid 312218Z - 010015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 579 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for severe wind gusts and large hail is likely to continue for several more hours from far northeast South Dakota into parts of western and central Minnesota. The severe threat is expected to persist past the 00Z expiration of Watch 579, and new watch issuance may become necessary. DISCUSSION...The latest radar from Aberdeen shows a cluster of severe storms from east of Aberdeen into far western Minnesota. These storms are located along a sharp gradient of instability near an area of maximized low-level convergence. Short-term model solutions suggest this cluster will continue move eastward into parts of west-central Minnesota, and potentially expanding southward into south-central Minnesota. According to the RAP, moderate to strong instability is present over much central and southern Minnesota, where MLCAPE is estimated in the 2000 to 4000 J/kg range. This, combined with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 30 knot range, evident on regional WSR-88D VWPs, will support a continued severe threat. Large hail and severe gusts will be likely with the stronger cells. The most intense storms could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter, along with isolated wind gusts, perhaps above 65 knots. ..Broyles.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 44629724 44889772 45169784 45459778 45729741 46239626 46529516 46579389 46269314 45749274 45109272 44989273 44649283 44219312 44089358 44099439 44339578 44629724 Read more

MD 1771 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581... FOR EASTERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1771 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0444 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Minnesota...Northern Wisconsin Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 581... Valid 312144Z - 312345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 581 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat appears likely to continue for a couple more hours across eastern Minnesota. The threat is expected to affect parts of northern Wisconsin by early evening. Watch issuance is not expected to the east of the current watch. DISCUSSION...Latest mosaic radar imagery shows an MCS across eastern Minnesota. RAP analysis has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range, mainly in the area where convection is ongoing. The RAP also has moderate deep-layer shear in place over much of this unstable airmass, which appears to be due to a mid-level speed max that is moving through the eastern Dakotas. A bowing line segment is currently ongoing near a surface thermal gradient, to the north-northwest of Minneapolis. As this line moves eastward, isolated severe gusts will continue to be possible for a couple more hours. However, The line will eventually move into much weaker instability across northern Wisconsin, where the threat should become marginal. ..Broyles.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX... LAT...LON 47759313 47489371 47099383 46239367 45759373 45479347 45299254 45509137 46089084 46889079 47529102 47809155 47839234 47759313 Read more

WW 0582 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 582 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW EAR TO 20 N FNB TO 30 WNW TQE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1775 ..WEINMAN..07/31/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GLD...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 582 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC071-085-129-155-010040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREMONT HARRISON MILLS POTTAWATTAMIE KSC029-039-065-089-117-123-137-141-147-157-163-179-183-201- 010040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLOUD DECATUR GRAHAM JEWELL MARSHALL MITCHELL NORTON OSBORNE PHILLIPS REPUBLIC ROOKS SHERIDAN SMITH WASHINGTON NEC025-055-061-067-083-095-129-133-153-169-177-181-010040- Read more

WW 582 SEVERE TSTM IA KS NE 312000Z - 010300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 582 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 300 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Southwest Iowa Northern Kansas South-Cenntral into Eastern Nebraska * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon as the move generally eastward. With a favorable environment in place, severe/damaging winds up to 65-80 mph appear likely. Some hail around 1-2 inches in diameter may also occur with any sustained supercell. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles east of Hill City KS to 45 miles northwest of Omaha NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 579...WW 580...WW 581... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0584 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0584 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 584 SEVERE TSTM IA MO 312315Z - 010600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 584 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 615 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Central Iowa Northern Missouri * Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 615 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 90 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...An intense severe-wind producing bow echo will continue eastward this evening into western and central Iowa and perhaps adjacent parts of northern Missouri. Numerous to widespread severe gusts (60-90 mph), and perhaps a tornado, are the primary hazards with this squall line as it moves east into the Watch area. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northwest of Des Moines IA to 35 miles south southwest of Lamoni IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 579...WW 580...WW 581...WW 582...WW 583... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26045. ...Smith Read more

WW 0583 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0583 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 583 SEVERE TSTM KS 312250Z - 010600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 583 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 550 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Northeast Kansas * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning from 550 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A cluster of organizing severe thunderstorms across northern Kansas will gradually move into the Watch area this evening. Upscale growth into one or two linear clusters is forecast. Severe gusts (60-80 mph) and large to very large hail (1 to 2 inches in diameter) will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 85 miles west southwest of Russell KS to 25 miles north northeast of Topeka KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 579...WW 580...WW 581...WW 582... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28015. ...Smith Read more

WW 0582 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 582 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW EAR TO 45 WSW LNK TO 15 N TQE. ..WEINMAN..07/31/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GLD...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 582 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC071-085-129-155-312340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREMONT HARRISON MILLS POTTAWATTAMIE KSC029-039-065-089-117-123-137-141-147-157-163-179-183-201- 312340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLOUD DECATUR GRAHAM JEWELL MARSHALL MITCHELL NORTON OSBORNE PHILLIPS REPUBLIC ROOKS SHERIDAN SMITH WASHINGTON NEC001-025-035-053-055-059-061-065-067-083-095-097-099-109-127- 129-131-133-137-151-153-155-159-169-177-181-312340- Read more

WW 0579 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 579 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW 9V9 TO 10 N ABR TO 30 NNW BRD. ..BROYLES..07/31/24 ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 579 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC009-011-023-057-059-065-067-073-093-095-097-121-141-145-149- 151-171-173-312340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BIG STONE CHIPPEWA HUBBARD ISANTI KANABEC KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE MEEKER MILLE LACS MORRISON POPE SHERBURNE STEARNS STEVENS SWIFT WRIGHT YELLOW MEDICINE SDC013-017-025-029-037-039-051-057-059-091-115-312340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN BUFFALO CLARK CODINGTON DAY DEUEL GRANT HAMLIN HAND MARSHALL SPINK Read more

WW 0579 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 579 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW 9V9 TO 10 N ABR TO 30 NNW BRD. ..BROYLES..07/31/24 ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 579 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC009-011-023-057-059-065-067-073-093-095-097-121-141-145-149- 151-171-173-312340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BIG STONE CHIPPEWA HUBBARD ISANTI KANABEC KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE MEEKER MILLE LACS MORRISON POPE SHERBURNE STEARNS STEVENS SWIFT WRIGHT YELLOW MEDICINE SDC013-017-025-029-037-039-051-057-059-091-115-312340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN BUFFALO CLARK CODINGTON DAY DEUEL GRANT HAMLIN HAND MARSHALL SPINK Read more

WW 579 SEVERE TSTM MN ND SD 311715Z - 010000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 579 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Central Minnesota Southeast North Dakota Central and Eastern South Dakota * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1215 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Multiple clusters of thunderstorms will likely produce scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds up to 65-80 mph this afternoon as they move east-northeastward. Supercells should develop and pose a greater threat for severe hail generally around 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter, especially in parts of central to northeast South Dakota. A tornado or two also appears possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 90 miles west southwest of Aberdeen SD to 50 miles northeast of Alexandria MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0581 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW BRD TO 35 WSW HIB TO 40 NNW HIB TO 35 SSE INL. ..BROYLES..07/31/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-017-035-115-137-312340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN CARLTON CROW WING PINE ST. LOUIS WIC013-031-312340- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURNETT DOUGLAS LSZ145-312340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI Read more

WW 0581 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW BRD TO 35 WSW HIB TO 40 NNW HIB TO 35 SSE INL. ..BROYLES..07/31/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-017-035-115-137-312340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN CARLTON CROW WING PINE ST. LOUIS WIC013-031-312340- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURNETT DOUGLAS LSZ145-312340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI Read more

WW 581 SEVERE TSTM MN WI LS 311910Z - 010000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 581 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 210 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Minnesota Far Northwest Wisconsin Lake Superior * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A well-organized, bowing complex of thunderstorms should continue to pose a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds up to around 65-75 mph as it moves quickly east-northeastward this afternoon and early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles northwest of Hibbing MN to 75 miles south southwest of Duluth MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 579...WW 580... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26040. ...Gleason Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Broad mid-level troughing off the U.S. West Coast and associated southwesterly flow is expected to phase with a subtle shortwave trough moving northward along the periphery of a ridge centered over the Western U.S. As the offshore trough moves eastward and the shortwave becomes absorbed into the broader flow, an extended period of isolated dry thunderstorms is expected beginning D3/Friday and persisting through at least D6/Monday. ...D3/Friday... Two regions for isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence have come into focus: One over the Sierra Nevada, and one over central/eastern Oregon and Washington. The Sierra Nevada may experience a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms given higher forecast PWAT values. However, storm motions of 30 kts and modest to extremely receptive fuels will limit wetting rainfall and could result in efficient lightning-based ignitions. In the Pacific Northwest, there is still some uncertainty in the overall coverage of dry thunderstorms, with a potential minima in coverage along the OR/WA border. The greatest chances for dry lightning appears to be in Central Oregon and portions of Northern Washington, where forecast profiles for buoyancy are maximized over dry, deeply mixed boundary layers, and fuels are receptive. ...D4/Saturday through D6/Monday... The greatest chances for dry lightning occurrence are on D4/Saturday across the Sierra Nevada into the Northwest, and persisting across the Northwest into Montana on Sunday. While some uncertainty remains on the timing of upper-level forcing, as well as the extent of cloud cover across the area, dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels appear likely. On D5/Sunday, storm motions are forecast to be at or above 30 kts, which may limit any additional wetting rainfall. The moisture and flow associated with this system will persist D6/Monday across far eastern portions of WA/OR into western MT. There is some indication of dry/windy conditions across the Snake River Plain on D5/Sunday, and portions of N CA into S OR on D6/Monday, but uncertainty in the magnitude of surface winds precludes highlights at this time. ...D7/Tuesday and D8/Wednesday... Some chances for dry thunderstorms could linger across portions of the Northwest into the Northern Rockies on D7/Tuesday. There is also some indication of dry/windy conditions returning to the Northwest. However, the uncertainties in the forecast guidance preclude the introduction of any highlight areas at this time, though will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more