Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NEVADA... A critical risk area has been introduced to portions of northwest NV. Recent deterministic solutions hint that the primary axis of the upper-level trough (and attendant mid-level cold front) should be impinging along/just east of the northern Sierra around peak heating Monday afternoon. Stronger mid-level flow associated with this feature should bolster downslope winds, resulting in sustained winds above 20 mph with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph possible. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance, which shows high (60+ %) probability for winds over 20 mph. Given antecedent dry fuels and RH values in the low teens, a Critical risk area appears warranted. Additionally, confidence in thunderstorm development has increased for late Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning as the upper trough deepens and shifts east towards the northern Rockies. Forecast soundings suggest a mixture of wet/dry thunderstorms is most probable, but recent lightning starts in the region under similar thermodynamic regimes suggest that any isolated convection will pose a fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 08/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will pivot northeastward into the northern Great Basin on Monday. This feature will push a surface boundary into the Northwest. Dry and windy conditions are most likely ahead of the surface boundary across a large portion of Nevada into southern Idaho. Along with a stronger pressure gradient, mid-level winds will also be enhanced with the trough overhead leading to stronger gusts as well. Winds will reach 15-20 mph with some local areas of 20-25 mph. RH will fall into the 10-15% by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected. Forcing for ascent in the Northwest will be relatively weak as the trough will be displaced to the south. There is some potential for isolated thunderstorms developing in central/eastern Oregon. Storm motions would be fast enough that some of this activity could be dry if it develops, but confidence in that scenario is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NEVADA... A critical risk area has been introduced to portions of northwest NV. Recent deterministic solutions hint that the primary axis of the upper-level trough (and attendant mid-level cold front) should be impinging along/just east of the northern Sierra around peak heating Monday afternoon. Stronger mid-level flow associated with this feature should bolster downslope winds, resulting in sustained winds above 20 mph with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph possible. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance, which shows high (60+ %) probability for winds over 20 mph. Given antecedent dry fuels and RH values in the low teens, a Critical risk area appears warranted. Additionally, confidence in thunderstorm development has increased for late Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning as the upper trough deepens and shifts east towards the northern Rockies. Forecast soundings suggest a mixture of wet/dry thunderstorms is most probable, but recent lightning starts in the region under similar thermodynamic regimes suggest that any isolated convection will pose a fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 08/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will pivot northeastward into the northern Great Basin on Monday. This feature will push a surface boundary into the Northwest. Dry and windy conditions are most likely ahead of the surface boundary across a large portion of Nevada into southern Idaho. Along with a stronger pressure gradient, mid-level winds will also be enhanced with the trough overhead leading to stronger gusts as well. Winds will reach 15-20 mph with some local areas of 20-25 mph. RH will fall into the 10-15% by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected. Forcing for ascent in the Northwest will be relatively weak as the trough will be displaced to the south. There is some potential for isolated thunderstorms developing in central/eastern Oregon. Storm motions would be fast enough that some of this activity could be dry if it develops, but confidence in that scenario is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NEVADA... A critical risk area has been introduced to portions of northwest NV. Recent deterministic solutions hint that the primary axis of the upper-level trough (and attendant mid-level cold front) should be impinging along/just east of the northern Sierra around peak heating Monday afternoon. Stronger mid-level flow associated with this feature should bolster downslope winds, resulting in sustained winds above 20 mph with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph possible. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance, which shows high (60+ %) probability for winds over 20 mph. Given antecedent dry fuels and RH values in the low teens, a Critical risk area appears warranted. Additionally, confidence in thunderstorm development has increased for late Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning as the upper trough deepens and shifts east towards the northern Rockies. Forecast soundings suggest a mixture of wet/dry thunderstorms is most probable, but recent lightning starts in the region under similar thermodynamic regimes suggest that any isolated convection will pose a fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 08/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will pivot northeastward into the northern Great Basin on Monday. This feature will push a surface boundary into the Northwest. Dry and windy conditions are most likely ahead of the surface boundary across a large portion of Nevada into southern Idaho. Along with a stronger pressure gradient, mid-level winds will also be enhanced with the trough overhead leading to stronger gusts as well. Winds will reach 15-20 mph with some local areas of 20-25 mph. RH will fall into the 10-15% by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected. Forcing for ascent in the Northwest will be relatively weak as the trough will be displaced to the south. There is some potential for isolated thunderstorms developing in central/eastern Oregon. Storm motions would be fast enough that some of this activity could be dry if it develops, but confidence in that scenario is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0618 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0618 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0618 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0618 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0618 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0618 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Aug 11 17:47:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Aug 11 17:47:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... The potential for organized severe thunderstorms on Monday appears generally low across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A upper-level trough will advance off the East Coast on Monday while the upper-level ridge starts to build across the High Plains. A mid-level shortwave trough off the California coast Monday morning will approach the Great Basin by the evening and may result in a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across Utah. Additionally, convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough will move across the Rockies on Monday with a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible. ...Central High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop on the higher terrain across the central/southern Rockies on Monday afternoon and move into the central Plains. Weak to moderate instability and weak to moderate shear are forecast across the region which may result in a few isolated strong to severe storms. These storms will develop in a region of overall rising heights aloft. However, most guidance indicates a convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, likely emanating from the convection near the AZ/Mexico border this morning, will result in mesoscale ascent across Colorado and aid in storm development. ...Great Basin... Moderate instability will develop across the Great Basin on Monday as monsoon moisture streams north ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon as the inhibition erodes. Effective shear is forecast to be relatively weak (15 to 20 knots) which may limit storm organization. There is considerable uncertainty with the thermodynamic profile forecast from the RAP and NAM across western Utah with the NAM showing less instability and deeper mixing with the RAP showing greater instability and at less mixed boundary layer (thus resulting in greater instability). Regardless of the scenario, there will be a threat for severe wind gusts given the at least moderately unstable environment with height falls across the region during the afternoon. ...Eastern North Carolina... Storms are forecast to develop along a cold front as it moves across North Carolina Monday afternoon. A very moist airmass will be in place with mid-70s dewpoints. Despite a focused mechanism for storms and moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE), expect the threat for organized severe weather to remain low given the weak effective shear (~25 knots) and weak mid-level lapse rates (<6 C/km). ..Bentley.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... The potential for organized severe thunderstorms on Monday appears generally low across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A upper-level trough will advance off the East Coast on Monday while the upper-level ridge starts to build across the High Plains. A mid-level shortwave trough off the California coast Monday morning will approach the Great Basin by the evening and may result in a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across Utah. Additionally, convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough will move across the Rockies on Monday with a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible. ...Central High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop on the higher terrain across the central/southern Rockies on Monday afternoon and move into the central Plains. Weak to moderate instability and weak to moderate shear are forecast across the region which may result in a few isolated strong to severe storms. These storms will develop in a region of overall rising heights aloft. However, most guidance indicates a convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, likely emanating from the convection near the AZ/Mexico border this morning, will result in mesoscale ascent across Colorado and aid in storm development. ...Great Basin... Moderate instability will develop across the Great Basin on Monday as monsoon moisture streams north ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon as the inhibition erodes. Effective shear is forecast to be relatively weak (15 to 20 knots) which may limit storm organization. There is considerable uncertainty with the thermodynamic profile forecast from the RAP and NAM across western Utah with the NAM showing less instability and deeper mixing with the RAP showing greater instability and at less mixed boundary layer (thus resulting in greater instability). Regardless of the scenario, there will be a threat for severe wind gusts given the at least moderately unstable environment with height falls across the region during the afternoon. ...Eastern North Carolina... Storms are forecast to develop along a cold front as it moves across North Carolina Monday afternoon. A very moist airmass will be in place with mid-70s dewpoints. Despite a focused mechanism for storms and moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE), expect the threat for organized severe weather to remain low given the weak effective shear (~25 knots) and weak mid-level lapse rates (<6 C/km). ..Bentley.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... The potential for organized severe thunderstorms on Monday appears generally low across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A upper-level trough will advance off the East Coast on Monday while the upper-level ridge starts to build across the High Plains. A mid-level shortwave trough off the California coast Monday morning will approach the Great Basin by the evening and may result in a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across Utah. Additionally, convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough will move across the Rockies on Monday with a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible. ...Central High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop on the higher terrain across the central/southern Rockies on Monday afternoon and move into the central Plains. Weak to moderate instability and weak to moderate shear are forecast across the region which may result in a few isolated strong to severe storms. These storms will develop in a region of overall rising heights aloft. However, most guidance indicates a convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, likely emanating from the convection near the AZ/Mexico border this morning, will result in mesoscale ascent across Colorado and aid in storm development. ...Great Basin... Moderate instability will develop across the Great Basin on Monday as monsoon moisture streams north ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon as the inhibition erodes. Effective shear is forecast to be relatively weak (15 to 20 knots) which may limit storm organization. There is considerable uncertainty with the thermodynamic profile forecast from the RAP and NAM across western Utah with the NAM showing less instability and deeper mixing with the RAP showing greater instability and at less mixed boundary layer (thus resulting in greater instability). Regardless of the scenario, there will be a threat for severe wind gusts given the at least moderately unstable environment with height falls across the region during the afternoon. ...Eastern North Carolina... Storms are forecast to develop along a cold front as it moves across North Carolina Monday afternoon. A very moist airmass will be in place with mid-70s dewpoints. Despite a focused mechanism for storms and moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE), expect the threat for organized severe weather to remain low given the weak effective shear (~25 knots) and weak mid-level lapse rates (<6 C/km). ..Bentley.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... The potential for organized severe thunderstorms on Monday appears generally low across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A upper-level trough will advance off the East Coast on Monday while the upper-level ridge starts to build across the High Plains. A mid-level shortwave trough off the California coast Monday morning will approach the Great Basin by the evening and may result in a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across Utah. Additionally, convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough will move across the Rockies on Monday with a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible. ...Central High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop on the higher terrain across the central/southern Rockies on Monday afternoon and move into the central Plains. Weak to moderate instability and weak to moderate shear are forecast across the region which may result in a few isolated strong to severe storms. These storms will develop in a region of overall rising heights aloft. However, most guidance indicates a convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, likely emanating from the convection near the AZ/Mexico border this morning, will result in mesoscale ascent across Colorado and aid in storm development. ...Great Basin... Moderate instability will develop across the Great Basin on Monday as monsoon moisture streams north ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon as the inhibition erodes. Effective shear is forecast to be relatively weak (15 to 20 knots) which may limit storm organization. There is considerable uncertainty with the thermodynamic profile forecast from the RAP and NAM across western Utah with the NAM showing less instability and deeper mixing with the RAP showing greater instability and at less mixed boundary layer (thus resulting in greater instability). Regardless of the scenario, there will be a threat for severe wind gusts given the at least moderately unstable environment with height falls across the region during the afternoon. ...Eastern North Carolina... Storms are forecast to develop along a cold front as it moves across North Carolina Monday afternoon. A very moist airmass will be in place with mid-70s dewpoints. Despite a focused mechanism for storms and moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE), expect the threat for organized severe weather to remain low given the weak effective shear (~25 knots) and weak mid-level lapse rates (<6 C/km). ..Bentley.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... The potential for organized severe thunderstorms on Monday appears generally low across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A upper-level trough will advance off the East Coast on Monday while the upper-level ridge starts to build across the High Plains. A mid-level shortwave trough off the California coast Monday morning will approach the Great Basin by the evening and may result in a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across Utah. Additionally, convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough will move across the Rockies on Monday with a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible. ...Central High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop on the higher terrain across the central/southern Rockies on Monday afternoon and move into the central Plains. Weak to moderate instability and weak to moderate shear are forecast across the region which may result in a few isolated strong to severe storms. These storms will develop in a region of overall rising heights aloft. However, most guidance indicates a convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, likely emanating from the convection near the AZ/Mexico border this morning, will result in mesoscale ascent across Colorado and aid in storm development. ...Great Basin... Moderate instability will develop across the Great Basin on Monday as monsoon moisture streams north ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon as the inhibition erodes. Effective shear is forecast to be relatively weak (15 to 20 knots) which may limit storm organization. There is considerable uncertainty with the thermodynamic profile forecast from the RAP and NAM across western Utah with the NAM showing less instability and deeper mixing with the RAP showing greater instability and at less mixed boundary layer (thus resulting in greater instability). Regardless of the scenario, there will be a threat for severe wind gusts given the at least moderately unstable environment with height falls across the region during the afternoon. ...Eastern North Carolina... Storms are forecast to develop along a cold front as it moves across North Carolina Monday afternoon. A very moist airmass will be in place with mid-70s dewpoints. Despite a focused mechanism for storms and moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE), expect the threat for organized severe weather to remain low given the weak effective shear (~25 knots) and weak mid-level lapse rates (<6 C/km). ..Bentley.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... The potential for organized severe thunderstorms on Monday appears generally low across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A upper-level trough will advance off the East Coast on Monday while the upper-level ridge starts to build across the High Plains. A mid-level shortwave trough off the California coast Monday morning will approach the Great Basin by the evening and may result in a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across Utah. Additionally, convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough will move across the Rockies on Monday with a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible. ...Central High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop on the higher terrain across the central/southern Rockies on Monday afternoon and move into the central Plains. Weak to moderate instability and weak to moderate shear are forecast across the region which may result in a few isolated strong to severe storms. These storms will develop in a region of overall rising heights aloft. However, most guidance indicates a convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, likely emanating from the convection near the AZ/Mexico border this morning, will result in mesoscale ascent across Colorado and aid in storm development. ...Great Basin... Moderate instability will develop across the Great Basin on Monday as monsoon moisture streams north ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon as the inhibition erodes. Effective shear is forecast to be relatively weak (15 to 20 knots) which may limit storm organization. There is considerable uncertainty with the thermodynamic profile forecast from the RAP and NAM across western Utah with the NAM showing less instability and deeper mixing with the RAP showing greater instability and at less mixed boundary layer (thus resulting in greater instability). Regardless of the scenario, there will be a threat for severe wind gusts given the at least moderately unstable environment with height falls across the region during the afternoon. ...Eastern North Carolina... Storms are forecast to develop along a cold front as it moves across North Carolina Monday afternoon. A very moist airmass will be in place with mid-70s dewpoints. Despite a focused mechanism for storms and moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE), expect the threat for organized severe weather to remain low given the weak effective shear (~25 knots) and weak mid-level lapse rates (<6 C/km). ..Bentley.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... The potential for organized severe thunderstorms on Monday appears generally low across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A upper-level trough will advance off the East Coast on Monday while the upper-level ridge starts to build across the High Plains. A mid-level shortwave trough off the California coast Monday morning will approach the Great Basin by the evening and may result in a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across Utah. Additionally, convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough will move across the Rockies on Monday with a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible. ...Central High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop on the higher terrain across the central/southern Rockies on Monday afternoon and move into the central Plains. Weak to moderate instability and weak to moderate shear are forecast across the region which may result in a few isolated strong to severe storms. These storms will develop in a region of overall rising heights aloft. However, most guidance indicates a convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, likely emanating from the convection near the AZ/Mexico border this morning, will result in mesoscale ascent across Colorado and aid in storm development. ...Great Basin... Moderate instability will develop across the Great Basin on Monday as monsoon moisture streams north ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon as the inhibition erodes. Effective shear is forecast to be relatively weak (15 to 20 knots) which may limit storm organization. There is considerable uncertainty with the thermodynamic profile forecast from the RAP and NAM across western Utah with the NAM showing less instability and deeper mixing with the RAP showing greater instability and at less mixed boundary layer (thus resulting in greater instability). Regardless of the scenario, there will be a threat for severe wind gusts given the at least moderately unstable environment with height falls across the region during the afternoon. ...Eastern North Carolina... Storms are forecast to develop along a cold front as it moves across North Carolina Monday afternoon. A very moist airmass will be in place with mid-70s dewpoints. Despite a focused mechanism for storms and moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE), expect the threat for organized severe weather to remain low given the weak effective shear (~25 knots) and weak mid-level lapse rates (<6 C/km). ..Bentley.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... The potential for organized severe thunderstorms on Monday appears generally low across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A upper-level trough will advance off the East Coast on Monday while the upper-level ridge starts to build across the High Plains. A mid-level shortwave trough off the California coast Monday morning will approach the Great Basin by the evening and may result in a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across Utah. Additionally, convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough will move across the Rockies on Monday with a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible. ...Central High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop on the higher terrain across the central/southern Rockies on Monday afternoon and move into the central Plains. Weak to moderate instability and weak to moderate shear are forecast across the region which may result in a few isolated strong to severe storms. These storms will develop in a region of overall rising heights aloft. However, most guidance indicates a convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, likely emanating from the convection near the AZ/Mexico border this morning, will result in mesoscale ascent across Colorado and aid in storm development. ...Great Basin... Moderate instability will develop across the Great Basin on Monday as monsoon moisture streams north ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon as the inhibition erodes. Effective shear is forecast to be relatively weak (15 to 20 knots) which may limit storm organization. There is considerable uncertainty with the thermodynamic profile forecast from the RAP and NAM across western Utah with the NAM showing less instability and deeper mixing with the RAP showing greater instability and at less mixed boundary layer (thus resulting in greater instability). Regardless of the scenario, there will be a threat for severe wind gusts given the at least moderately unstable environment with height falls across the region during the afternoon. ...Eastern North Carolina... Storms are forecast to develop along a cold front as it moves across North Carolina Monday afternoon. A very moist airmass will be in place with mid-70s dewpoints. Despite a focused mechanism for storms and moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE), expect the threat for organized severe weather to remain low given the weak effective shear (~25 knots) and weak mid-level lapse rates (<6 C/km). ..Bentley.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... The potential for organized severe thunderstorms on Monday appears generally low across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A upper-level trough will advance off the East Coast on Monday while the upper-level ridge starts to build across the High Plains. A mid-level shortwave trough off the California coast Monday morning will approach the Great Basin by the evening and may result in a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across Utah. Additionally, convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough will move across the Rockies on Monday with a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible. ...Central High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop on the higher terrain across the central/southern Rockies on Monday afternoon and move into the central Plains. Weak to moderate instability and weak to moderate shear are forecast across the region which may result in a few isolated strong to severe storms. These storms will develop in a region of overall rising heights aloft. However, most guidance indicates a convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, likely emanating from the convection near the AZ/Mexico border this morning, will result in mesoscale ascent across Colorado and aid in storm development. ...Great Basin... Moderate instability will develop across the Great Basin on Monday as monsoon moisture streams north ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon as the inhibition erodes. Effective shear is forecast to be relatively weak (15 to 20 knots) which may limit storm organization. There is considerable uncertainty with the thermodynamic profile forecast from the RAP and NAM across western Utah with the NAM showing less instability and deeper mixing with the RAP showing greater instability and at less mixed boundary layer (thus resulting in greater instability). Regardless of the scenario, there will be a threat for severe wind gusts given the at least moderately unstable environment with height falls across the region during the afternoon. ...Eastern North Carolina... Storms are forecast to develop along a cold front as it moves across North Carolina Monday afternoon. A very moist airmass will be in place with mid-70s dewpoints. Despite a focused mechanism for storms and moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE), expect the threat for organized severe weather to remain low given the weak effective shear (~25 knots) and weak mid-level lapse rates (<6 C/km). ..Bentley.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... The potential for organized severe thunderstorms on Monday appears generally low across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A upper-level trough will advance off the East Coast on Monday while the upper-level ridge starts to build across the High Plains. A mid-level shortwave trough off the California coast Monday morning will approach the Great Basin by the evening and may result in a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across Utah. Additionally, convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough will move across the Rockies on Monday with a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible. ...Central High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop on the higher terrain across the central/southern Rockies on Monday afternoon and move into the central Plains. Weak to moderate instability and weak to moderate shear are forecast across the region which may result in a few isolated strong to severe storms. These storms will develop in a region of overall rising heights aloft. However, most guidance indicates a convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, likely emanating from the convection near the AZ/Mexico border this morning, will result in mesoscale ascent across Colorado and aid in storm development. ...Great Basin... Moderate instability will develop across the Great Basin on Monday as monsoon moisture streams north ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon as the inhibition erodes. Effective shear is forecast to be relatively weak (15 to 20 knots) which may limit storm organization. There is considerable uncertainty with the thermodynamic profile forecast from the RAP and NAM across western Utah with the NAM showing less instability and deeper mixing with the RAP showing greater instability and at less mixed boundary layer (thus resulting in greater instability). Regardless of the scenario, there will be a threat for severe wind gusts given the at least moderately unstable environment with height falls across the region during the afternoon. ...Eastern North Carolina... Storms are forecast to develop along a cold front as it moves across North Carolina Monday afternoon. A very moist airmass will be in place with mid-70s dewpoints. Despite a focused mechanism for storms and moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE), expect the threat for organized severe weather to remain low given the weak effective shear (~25 knots) and weak mid-level lapse rates (<6 C/km). ..Bentley.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... The potential for organized severe thunderstorms on Monday appears generally low across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A upper-level trough will advance off the East Coast on Monday while the upper-level ridge starts to build across the High Plains. A mid-level shortwave trough off the California coast Monday morning will approach the Great Basin by the evening and may result in a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across Utah. Additionally, convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough will move across the Rockies on Monday with a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible. ...Central High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop on the higher terrain across the central/southern Rockies on Monday afternoon and move into the central Plains. Weak to moderate instability and weak to moderate shear are forecast across the region which may result in a few isolated strong to severe storms. These storms will develop in a region of overall rising heights aloft. However, most guidance indicates a convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, likely emanating from the convection near the AZ/Mexico border this morning, will result in mesoscale ascent across Colorado and aid in storm development. ...Great Basin... Moderate instability will develop across the Great Basin on Monday as monsoon moisture streams north ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon as the inhibition erodes. Effective shear is forecast to be relatively weak (15 to 20 knots) which may limit storm organization. There is considerable uncertainty with the thermodynamic profile forecast from the RAP and NAM across western Utah with the NAM showing less instability and deeper mixing with the RAP showing greater instability and at less mixed boundary layer (thus resulting in greater instability). Regardless of the scenario, there will be a threat for severe wind gusts given the at least moderately unstable environment with height falls across the region during the afternoon. ...Eastern North Carolina... Storms are forecast to develop along a cold front as it moves across North Carolina Monday afternoon. A very moist airmass will be in place with mid-70s dewpoints. Despite a focused mechanism for storms and moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE), expect the threat for organized severe weather to remain low given the weak effective shear (~25 knots) and weak mid-level lapse rates (<6 C/km). ..Bentley.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... The potential for organized severe thunderstorms on Monday appears generally low across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A upper-level trough will advance off the East Coast on Monday while the upper-level ridge starts to build across the High Plains. A mid-level shortwave trough off the California coast Monday morning will approach the Great Basin by the evening and may result in a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across Utah. Additionally, convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough will move across the Rockies on Monday with a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible. ...Central High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop on the higher terrain across the central/southern Rockies on Monday afternoon and move into the central Plains. Weak to moderate instability and weak to moderate shear are forecast across the region which may result in a few isolated strong to severe storms. These storms will develop in a region of overall rising heights aloft. However, most guidance indicates a convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, likely emanating from the convection near the AZ/Mexico border this morning, will result in mesoscale ascent across Colorado and aid in storm development. ...Great Basin... Moderate instability will develop across the Great Basin on Monday as monsoon moisture streams north ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon as the inhibition erodes. Effective shear is forecast to be relatively weak (15 to 20 knots) which may limit storm organization. There is considerable uncertainty with the thermodynamic profile forecast from the RAP and NAM across western Utah with the NAM showing less instability and deeper mixing with the RAP showing greater instability and at less mixed boundary layer (thus resulting in greater instability). Regardless of the scenario, there will be a threat for severe wind gusts given the at least moderately unstable environment with height falls across the region during the afternoon. ...Eastern North Carolina... Storms are forecast to develop along a cold front as it moves across North Carolina Monday afternoon. A very moist airmass will be in place with mid-70s dewpoints. Despite a focused mechanism for storms and moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE), expect the threat for organized severe weather to remain low given the weak effective shear (~25 knots) and weak mid-level lapse rates (<6 C/km). ..Bentley.. 08/11/2024 Read more