Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO... ...Southwest Idaho... Introduced a Critical area into the Snake River Valley due to better overlap of dry, windy conditions with 90th percentile fuels. Model guidance has increased confidence in 20+ MPH winds over portions of the valley. Fuels further east into south-central and southeastern Idaho are not quite as dry, though locally critical conditions could occur with eastward extent. See previous discussion for additional details. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will prevail over much of the CONUS as a mid-level trough overspreads the northern Rockies tomorrow (Wednesday). During the afternoon, dry downslope flow will encourage dry and breezy conditions across much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Latest guidance consensus suggests that 15+ mph sustained westerly winds (locally higher in terrain-favoring areas) will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for several hours. With fuels beginning to become at least modestly receptive to wildfire spread on a widespread basis, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO... ...Southwest Idaho... Introduced a Critical area into the Snake River Valley due to better overlap of dry, windy conditions with 90th percentile fuels. Model guidance has increased confidence in 20+ MPH winds over portions of the valley. Fuels further east into south-central and southeastern Idaho are not quite as dry, though locally critical conditions could occur with eastward extent. See previous discussion for additional details. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will prevail over much of the CONUS as a mid-level trough overspreads the northern Rockies tomorrow (Wednesday). During the afternoon, dry downslope flow will encourage dry and breezy conditions across much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Latest guidance consensus suggests that 15+ mph sustained westerly winds (locally higher in terrain-favoring areas) will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for several hours. With fuels beginning to become at least modestly receptive to wildfire spread on a widespread basis, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO... ...Southwest Idaho... Introduced a Critical area into the Snake River Valley due to better overlap of dry, windy conditions with 90th percentile fuels. Model guidance has increased confidence in 20+ MPH winds over portions of the valley. Fuels further east into south-central and southeastern Idaho are not quite as dry, though locally critical conditions could occur with eastward extent. See previous discussion for additional details. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will prevail over much of the CONUS as a mid-level trough overspreads the northern Rockies tomorrow (Wednesday). During the afternoon, dry downslope flow will encourage dry and breezy conditions across much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Latest guidance consensus suggests that 15+ mph sustained westerly winds (locally higher in terrain-favoring areas) will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for several hours. With fuels beginning to become at least modestly receptive to wildfire spread on a widespread basis, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO... ...Southwest Idaho... Introduced a Critical area into the Snake River Valley due to better overlap of dry, windy conditions with 90th percentile fuels. Model guidance has increased confidence in 20+ MPH winds over portions of the valley. Fuels further east into south-central and southeastern Idaho are not quite as dry, though locally critical conditions could occur with eastward extent. See previous discussion for additional details. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will prevail over much of the CONUS as a mid-level trough overspreads the northern Rockies tomorrow (Wednesday). During the afternoon, dry downslope flow will encourage dry and breezy conditions across much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Latest guidance consensus suggests that 15+ mph sustained westerly winds (locally higher in terrain-favoring areas) will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for several hours. With fuels beginning to become at least modestly receptive to wildfire spread on a widespread basis, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO... ...Southwest Idaho... Introduced a Critical area into the Snake River Valley due to better overlap of dry, windy conditions with 90th percentile fuels. Model guidance has increased confidence in 20+ MPH winds over portions of the valley. Fuels further east into south-central and southeastern Idaho are not quite as dry, though locally critical conditions could occur with eastward extent. See previous discussion for additional details. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will prevail over much of the CONUS as a mid-level trough overspreads the northern Rockies tomorrow (Wednesday). During the afternoon, dry downslope flow will encourage dry and breezy conditions across much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Latest guidance consensus suggests that 15+ mph sustained westerly winds (locally higher in terrain-favoring areas) will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for several hours. With fuels beginning to become at least modestly receptive to wildfire spread on a widespread basis, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO... ...Southwest Idaho... Introduced a Critical area into the Snake River Valley due to better overlap of dry, windy conditions with 90th percentile fuels. Model guidance has increased confidence in 20+ MPH winds over portions of the valley. Fuels further east into south-central and southeastern Idaho are not quite as dry, though locally critical conditions could occur with eastward extent. See previous discussion for additional details. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will prevail over much of the CONUS as a mid-level trough overspreads the northern Rockies tomorrow (Wednesday). During the afternoon, dry downslope flow will encourage dry and breezy conditions across much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Latest guidance consensus suggests that 15+ mph sustained westerly winds (locally higher in terrain-favoring areas) will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for several hours. With fuels beginning to become at least modestly receptive to wildfire spread on a widespread basis, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jul 2 19:08:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND FROM THE OZARKS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, particularly across parts of the Ozarks and Ohio Valley, and portions of the northern and central Plains. ...Ozarks to the Lower Ohio Valley... A modest shortwave impulse is forecast to develop northeast across the Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. The bulk of strong mid/upper level southwesterly flow will remain over the Great Lakes vicinity, somewhat displaced from richer boundary-layer moisture and instability further south across the Mid-MS/OH Valley region. At the surface, a cold front will sag south/southeast across the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes, perhaps stalling from northern MO/IL into Lower MI. The effective front will be augmented by early day clouds and perhaps showers over northern MO into northern IL. To the south, rich boundary-layer moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F and stronger heating across southern MO/IL into southwest OH, will foster a corridor of moderate to strong instability amid 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. Clusters/bands of strong to severe thunderstorms will mainly pose a risk for damaging wind gusts during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern/Central Plains Vicinity... Modest height falls and strengthening midlevel westerlies are expected ahead of a deepening upper trough over the northern Rockies. As this occurs, a surface trough will sharpen over the High Plains. The western fringes of the Midwest cold front will be draped west to east near the NE/SD border. To the south of this boundary, south/southeasterly low-level flow will support low to mid 60s F dewpoints across much of KS/far southern NE westward into eastern CO, as well as across the adjacent southern Plains. Lower dewpoints are expected across the northern High Plains in the post-frontal airmass. Strong heating and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization. Vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will support initial supercell development near the surface trough from southwest SD/western NE southward into CO. This initial activity will pose a severe/damaging wind risk in additional to large to very large hail. Additionally, curved low-level hodographs and increasing SRH by late afternoon/early evening may support a few tornadoes near the surface trough. With time, consolidation of convection via outflow interactions and a modestly increasing low-level jet by early evening should result in more linear storm modes. Some potential exists for MCS development, shifting east across parts of far eastern CO into parts of southwest NE/northwest KS. If confidence increases in a bowing MCS developing, higher severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. Convection will be more sparse with southward extent into NM and OK where large-scale ascent will be weaker and vertical shear overall more marginal. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will be present and any storms that develop could produce strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND FROM THE OZARKS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, particularly across parts of the Ozarks and Ohio Valley, and portions of the northern and central Plains. ...Ozarks to the Lower Ohio Valley... A modest shortwave impulse is forecast to develop northeast across the Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. The bulk of strong mid/upper level southwesterly flow will remain over the Great Lakes vicinity, somewhat displaced from richer boundary-layer moisture and instability further south across the Mid-MS/OH Valley region. At the surface, a cold front will sag south/southeast across the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes, perhaps stalling from northern MO/IL into Lower MI. The effective front will be augmented by early day clouds and perhaps showers over northern MO into northern IL. To the south, rich boundary-layer moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F and stronger heating across southern MO/IL into southwest OH, will foster a corridor of moderate to strong instability amid 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. Clusters/bands of strong to severe thunderstorms will mainly pose a risk for damaging wind gusts during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern/Central Plains Vicinity... Modest height falls and strengthening midlevel westerlies are expected ahead of a deepening upper trough over the northern Rockies. As this occurs, a surface trough will sharpen over the High Plains. The western fringes of the Midwest cold front will be draped west to east near the NE/SD border. To the south of this boundary, south/southeasterly low-level flow will support low to mid 60s F dewpoints across much of KS/far southern NE westward into eastern CO, as well as across the adjacent southern Plains. Lower dewpoints are expected across the northern High Plains in the post-frontal airmass. Strong heating and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization. Vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will support initial supercell development near the surface trough from southwest SD/western NE southward into CO. This initial activity will pose a severe/damaging wind risk in additional to large to very large hail. Additionally, curved low-level hodographs and increasing SRH by late afternoon/early evening may support a few tornadoes near the surface trough. With time, consolidation of convection via outflow interactions and a modestly increasing low-level jet by early evening should result in more linear storm modes. Some potential exists for MCS development, shifting east across parts of far eastern CO into parts of southwest NE/northwest KS. If confidence increases in a bowing MCS developing, higher severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. Convection will be more sparse with southward extent into NM and OK where large-scale ascent will be weaker and vertical shear overall more marginal. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will be present and any storms that develop could produce strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND FROM THE OZARKS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, particularly across parts of the Ozarks and Ohio Valley, and portions of the northern and central Plains. ...Ozarks to the Lower Ohio Valley... A modest shortwave impulse is forecast to develop northeast across the Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. The bulk of strong mid/upper level southwesterly flow will remain over the Great Lakes vicinity, somewhat displaced from richer boundary-layer moisture and instability further south across the Mid-MS/OH Valley region. At the surface, a cold front will sag south/southeast across the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes, perhaps stalling from northern MO/IL into Lower MI. The effective front will be augmented by early day clouds and perhaps showers over northern MO into northern IL. To the south, rich boundary-layer moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F and stronger heating across southern MO/IL into southwest OH, will foster a corridor of moderate to strong instability amid 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. Clusters/bands of strong to severe thunderstorms will mainly pose a risk for damaging wind gusts during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern/Central Plains Vicinity... Modest height falls and strengthening midlevel westerlies are expected ahead of a deepening upper trough over the northern Rockies. As this occurs, a surface trough will sharpen over the High Plains. The western fringes of the Midwest cold front will be draped west to east near the NE/SD border. To the south of this boundary, south/southeasterly low-level flow will support low to mid 60s F dewpoints across much of KS/far southern NE westward into eastern CO, as well as across the adjacent southern Plains. Lower dewpoints are expected across the northern High Plains in the post-frontal airmass. Strong heating and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization. Vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will support initial supercell development near the surface trough from southwest SD/western NE southward into CO. This initial activity will pose a severe/damaging wind risk in additional to large to very large hail. Additionally, curved low-level hodographs and increasing SRH by late afternoon/early evening may support a few tornadoes near the surface trough. With time, consolidation of convection via outflow interactions and a modestly increasing low-level jet by early evening should result in more linear storm modes. Some potential exists for MCS development, shifting east across parts of far eastern CO into parts of southwest NE/northwest KS. If confidence increases in a bowing MCS developing, higher severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. Convection will be more sparse with southward extent into NM and OK where large-scale ascent will be weaker and vertical shear overall more marginal. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will be present and any storms that develop could produce strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND FROM THE OZARKS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, particularly across parts of the Ozarks and Ohio Valley, and portions of the northern and central Plains. ...Ozarks to the Lower Ohio Valley... A modest shortwave impulse is forecast to develop northeast across the Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. The bulk of strong mid/upper level southwesterly flow will remain over the Great Lakes vicinity, somewhat displaced from richer boundary-layer moisture and instability further south across the Mid-MS/OH Valley region. At the surface, a cold front will sag south/southeast across the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes, perhaps stalling from northern MO/IL into Lower MI. The effective front will be augmented by early day clouds and perhaps showers over northern MO into northern IL. To the south, rich boundary-layer moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F and stronger heating across southern MO/IL into southwest OH, will foster a corridor of moderate to strong instability amid 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. Clusters/bands of strong to severe thunderstorms will mainly pose a risk for damaging wind gusts during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern/Central Plains Vicinity... Modest height falls and strengthening midlevel westerlies are expected ahead of a deepening upper trough over the northern Rockies. As this occurs, a surface trough will sharpen over the High Plains. The western fringes of the Midwest cold front will be draped west to east near the NE/SD border. To the south of this boundary, south/southeasterly low-level flow will support low to mid 60s F dewpoints across much of KS/far southern NE westward into eastern CO, as well as across the adjacent southern Plains. Lower dewpoints are expected across the northern High Plains in the post-frontal airmass. Strong heating and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization. Vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will support initial supercell development near the surface trough from southwest SD/western NE southward into CO. This initial activity will pose a severe/damaging wind risk in additional to large to very large hail. Additionally, curved low-level hodographs and increasing SRH by late afternoon/early evening may support a few tornadoes near the surface trough. With time, consolidation of convection via outflow interactions and a modestly increasing low-level jet by early evening should result in more linear storm modes. Some potential exists for MCS development, shifting east across parts of far eastern CO into parts of southwest NE/northwest KS. If confidence increases in a bowing MCS developing, higher severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. Convection will be more sparse with southward extent into NM and OK where large-scale ascent will be weaker and vertical shear overall more marginal. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will be present and any storms that develop could produce strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND FROM THE OZARKS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, particularly across parts of the Ozarks and Ohio Valley, and portions of the northern and central Plains. ...Ozarks to the Lower Ohio Valley... A modest shortwave impulse is forecast to develop northeast across the Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. The bulk of strong mid/upper level southwesterly flow will remain over the Great Lakes vicinity, somewhat displaced from richer boundary-layer moisture and instability further south across the Mid-MS/OH Valley region. At the surface, a cold front will sag south/southeast across the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes, perhaps stalling from northern MO/IL into Lower MI. The effective front will be augmented by early day clouds and perhaps showers over northern MO into northern IL. To the south, rich boundary-layer moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F and stronger heating across southern MO/IL into southwest OH, will foster a corridor of moderate to strong instability amid 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. Clusters/bands of strong to severe thunderstorms will mainly pose a risk for damaging wind gusts during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern/Central Plains Vicinity... Modest height falls and strengthening midlevel westerlies are expected ahead of a deepening upper trough over the northern Rockies. As this occurs, a surface trough will sharpen over the High Plains. The western fringes of the Midwest cold front will be draped west to east near the NE/SD border. To the south of this boundary, south/southeasterly low-level flow will support low to mid 60s F dewpoints across much of KS/far southern NE westward into eastern CO, as well as across the adjacent southern Plains. Lower dewpoints are expected across the northern High Plains in the post-frontal airmass. Strong heating and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization. Vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will support initial supercell development near the surface trough from southwest SD/western NE southward into CO. This initial activity will pose a severe/damaging wind risk in additional to large to very large hail. Additionally, curved low-level hodographs and increasing SRH by late afternoon/early evening may support a few tornadoes near the surface trough. With time, consolidation of convection via outflow interactions and a modestly increasing low-level jet by early evening should result in more linear storm modes. Some potential exists for MCS development, shifting east across parts of far eastern CO into parts of southwest NE/northwest KS. If confidence increases in a bowing MCS developing, higher severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. Convection will be more sparse with southward extent into NM and OK where large-scale ascent will be weaker and vertical shear overall more marginal. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will be present and any storms that develop could produce strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND FROM THE OZARKS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, particularly across parts of the Ozarks and Ohio Valley, and portions of the northern and central Plains. ...Ozarks to the Lower Ohio Valley... A modest shortwave impulse is forecast to develop northeast across the Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. The bulk of strong mid/upper level southwesterly flow will remain over the Great Lakes vicinity, somewhat displaced from richer boundary-layer moisture and instability further south across the Mid-MS/OH Valley region. At the surface, a cold front will sag south/southeast across the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes, perhaps stalling from northern MO/IL into Lower MI. The effective front will be augmented by early day clouds and perhaps showers over northern MO into northern IL. To the south, rich boundary-layer moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F and stronger heating across southern MO/IL into southwest OH, will foster a corridor of moderate to strong instability amid 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. Clusters/bands of strong to severe thunderstorms will mainly pose a risk for damaging wind gusts during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern/Central Plains Vicinity... Modest height falls and strengthening midlevel westerlies are expected ahead of a deepening upper trough over the northern Rockies. As this occurs, a surface trough will sharpen over the High Plains. The western fringes of the Midwest cold front will be draped west to east near the NE/SD border. To the south of this boundary, south/southeasterly low-level flow will support low to mid 60s F dewpoints across much of KS/far southern NE westward into eastern CO, as well as across the adjacent southern Plains. Lower dewpoints are expected across the northern High Plains in the post-frontal airmass. Strong heating and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization. Vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will support initial supercell development near the surface trough from southwest SD/western NE southward into CO. This initial activity will pose a severe/damaging wind risk in additional to large to very large hail. Additionally, curved low-level hodographs and increasing SRH by late afternoon/early evening may support a few tornadoes near the surface trough. With time, consolidation of convection via outflow interactions and a modestly increasing low-level jet by early evening should result in more linear storm modes. Some potential exists for MCS development, shifting east across parts of far eastern CO into parts of southwest NE/northwest KS. If confidence increases in a bowing MCS developing, higher severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. Convection will be more sparse with southward extent into NM and OK where large-scale ascent will be weaker and vertical shear overall more marginal. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will be present and any storms that develop could produce strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND FROM THE OZARKS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, particularly across parts of the Ozarks and Ohio Valley, and portions of the northern and central Plains. ...Ozarks to the Lower Ohio Valley... A modest shortwave impulse is forecast to develop northeast across the Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. The bulk of strong mid/upper level southwesterly flow will remain over the Great Lakes vicinity, somewhat displaced from richer boundary-layer moisture and instability further south across the Mid-MS/OH Valley region. At the surface, a cold front will sag south/southeast across the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes, perhaps stalling from northern MO/IL into Lower MI. The effective front will be augmented by early day clouds and perhaps showers over northern MO into northern IL. To the south, rich boundary-layer moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F and stronger heating across southern MO/IL into southwest OH, will foster a corridor of moderate to strong instability amid 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. Clusters/bands of strong to severe thunderstorms will mainly pose a risk for damaging wind gusts during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern/Central Plains Vicinity... Modest height falls and strengthening midlevel westerlies are expected ahead of a deepening upper trough over the northern Rockies. As this occurs, a surface trough will sharpen over the High Plains. The western fringes of the Midwest cold front will be draped west to east near the NE/SD border. To the south of this boundary, south/southeasterly low-level flow will support low to mid 60s F dewpoints across much of KS/far southern NE westward into eastern CO, as well as across the adjacent southern Plains. Lower dewpoints are expected across the northern High Plains in the post-frontal airmass. Strong heating and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization. Vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will support initial supercell development near the surface trough from southwest SD/western NE southward into CO. This initial activity will pose a severe/damaging wind risk in additional to large to very large hail. Additionally, curved low-level hodographs and increasing SRH by late afternoon/early evening may support a few tornadoes near the surface trough. With time, consolidation of convection via outflow interactions and a modestly increasing low-level jet by early evening should result in more linear storm modes. Some potential exists for MCS development, shifting east across parts of far eastern CO into parts of southwest NE/northwest KS. If confidence increases in a bowing MCS developing, higher severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. Convection will be more sparse with southward extent into NM and OK where large-scale ascent will be weaker and vertical shear overall more marginal. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will be present and any storms that develop could produce strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND FROM THE OZARKS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, particularly across parts of the Ozarks and Ohio Valley, and portions of the northern and central Plains. ...Ozarks to the Lower Ohio Valley... A modest shortwave impulse is forecast to develop northeast across the Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. The bulk of strong mid/upper level southwesterly flow will remain over the Great Lakes vicinity, somewhat displaced from richer boundary-layer moisture and instability further south across the Mid-MS/OH Valley region. At the surface, a cold front will sag south/southeast across the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes, perhaps stalling from northern MO/IL into Lower MI. The effective front will be augmented by early day clouds and perhaps showers over northern MO into northern IL. To the south, rich boundary-layer moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F and stronger heating across southern MO/IL into southwest OH, will foster a corridor of moderate to strong instability amid 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. Clusters/bands of strong to severe thunderstorms will mainly pose a risk for damaging wind gusts during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern/Central Plains Vicinity... Modest height falls and strengthening midlevel westerlies are expected ahead of a deepening upper trough over the northern Rockies. As this occurs, a surface trough will sharpen over the High Plains. The western fringes of the Midwest cold front will be draped west to east near the NE/SD border. To the south of this boundary, south/southeasterly low-level flow will support low to mid 60s F dewpoints across much of KS/far southern NE westward into eastern CO, as well as across the adjacent southern Plains. Lower dewpoints are expected across the northern High Plains in the post-frontal airmass. Strong heating and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization. Vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will support initial supercell development near the surface trough from southwest SD/western NE southward into CO. This initial activity will pose a severe/damaging wind risk in additional to large to very large hail. Additionally, curved low-level hodographs and increasing SRH by late afternoon/early evening may support a few tornadoes near the surface trough. With time, consolidation of convection via outflow interactions and a modestly increasing low-level jet by early evening should result in more linear storm modes. Some potential exists for MCS development, shifting east across parts of far eastern CO into parts of southwest NE/northwest KS. If confidence increases in a bowing MCS developing, higher severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. Convection will be more sparse with southward extent into NM and OK where large-scale ascent will be weaker and vertical shear overall more marginal. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will be present and any storms that develop could produce strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND FROM THE OZARKS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, particularly across parts of the Ozarks and Ohio Valley, and portions of the northern and central Plains. ...Ozarks to the Lower Ohio Valley... A modest shortwave impulse is forecast to develop northeast across the Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. The bulk of strong mid/upper level southwesterly flow will remain over the Great Lakes vicinity, somewhat displaced from richer boundary-layer moisture and instability further south across the Mid-MS/OH Valley region. At the surface, a cold front will sag south/southeast across the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes, perhaps stalling from northern MO/IL into Lower MI. The effective front will be augmented by early day clouds and perhaps showers over northern MO into northern IL. To the south, rich boundary-layer moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F and stronger heating across southern MO/IL into southwest OH, will foster a corridor of moderate to strong instability amid 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. Clusters/bands of strong to severe thunderstorms will mainly pose a risk for damaging wind gusts during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern/Central Plains Vicinity... Modest height falls and strengthening midlevel westerlies are expected ahead of a deepening upper trough over the northern Rockies. As this occurs, a surface trough will sharpen over the High Plains. The western fringes of the Midwest cold front will be draped west to east near the NE/SD border. To the south of this boundary, south/southeasterly low-level flow will support low to mid 60s F dewpoints across much of KS/far southern NE westward into eastern CO, as well as across the adjacent southern Plains. Lower dewpoints are expected across the northern High Plains in the post-frontal airmass. Strong heating and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization. Vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will support initial supercell development near the surface trough from southwest SD/western NE southward into CO. This initial activity will pose a severe/damaging wind risk in additional to large to very large hail. Additionally, curved low-level hodographs and increasing SRH by late afternoon/early evening may support a few tornadoes near the surface trough. With time, consolidation of convection via outflow interactions and a modestly increasing low-level jet by early evening should result in more linear storm modes. Some potential exists for MCS development, shifting east across parts of far eastern CO into parts of southwest NE/northwest KS. If confidence increases in a bowing MCS developing, higher severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. Convection will be more sparse with southward extent into NM and OK where large-scale ascent will be weaker and vertical shear overall more marginal. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will be present and any storms that develop could produce strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND FROM THE OZARKS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, particularly across parts of the Ozarks and Ohio Valley, and portions of the northern and central Plains. ...Ozarks to the Lower Ohio Valley... A modest shortwave impulse is forecast to develop northeast across the Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. The bulk of strong mid/upper level southwesterly flow will remain over the Great Lakes vicinity, somewhat displaced from richer boundary-layer moisture and instability further south across the Mid-MS/OH Valley region. At the surface, a cold front will sag south/southeast across the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes, perhaps stalling from northern MO/IL into Lower MI. The effective front will be augmented by early day clouds and perhaps showers over northern MO into northern IL. To the south, rich boundary-layer moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F and stronger heating across southern MO/IL into southwest OH, will foster a corridor of moderate to strong instability amid 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. Clusters/bands of strong to severe thunderstorms will mainly pose a risk for damaging wind gusts during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern/Central Plains Vicinity... Modest height falls and strengthening midlevel westerlies are expected ahead of a deepening upper trough over the northern Rockies. As this occurs, a surface trough will sharpen over the High Plains. The western fringes of the Midwest cold front will be draped west to east near the NE/SD border. To the south of this boundary, south/southeasterly low-level flow will support low to mid 60s F dewpoints across much of KS/far southern NE westward into eastern CO, as well as across the adjacent southern Plains. Lower dewpoints are expected across the northern High Plains in the post-frontal airmass. Strong heating and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization. Vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will support initial supercell development near the surface trough from southwest SD/western NE southward into CO. This initial activity will pose a severe/damaging wind risk in additional to large to very large hail. Additionally, curved low-level hodographs and increasing SRH by late afternoon/early evening may support a few tornadoes near the surface trough. With time, consolidation of convection via outflow interactions and a modestly increasing low-level jet by early evening should result in more linear storm modes. Some potential exists for MCS development, shifting east across parts of far eastern CO into parts of southwest NE/northwest KS. If confidence increases in a bowing MCS developing, higher severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. Convection will be more sparse with southward extent into NM and OK where large-scale ascent will be weaker and vertical shear overall more marginal. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will be present and any storms that develop could produce strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/02/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...17Z Update... The previous forecast remains valid and largely unchanged. An expansion of the Southern Plains Elevated area further southwest into Central TX was introduced in order to cover hot, dry, and windy conditions this afternoon and early evening that overlap with supportive fuels. Localized dry and breezy conditions may occur across Southwest OR. However, no Elevated highlight will be introduced at this time. See previous discussion for more information. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic mid-level flow will overspread much of the northwestern and north-central CONUS today, with an embedded mid-level impulse overspreading the northern Plains as a 500 mb jet max impinges on the Pacific Northwest. Coincident with low pressure development in the Central California Valley region, 15+ mph sustained northerly surface winds may develop by afternoon in the Sacramento into Napa Valleys as RH drops to or just below 15 percent. Given receptive fuels in this region, Elevated highlights have been maintained. Locally dry and breezy conditions should also develop along the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney and Columbia basins in eastern Oregon and Washington (respectively). Fuels continue to cure across the Pacific Northwest, but are currently only modestly receptive at best on a widespread basis. Given the localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions, and given modest fuel receptiveness, no fire weather highlights have been introduced. Finally, surface low development over the central Plains will encourage dry southerly low-level flow over the southern High Plains as the boundary layer deepens and mixes by afternoon. Latest guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds overlapping 20-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given the stress of fuels under hot conditions over the past few days, fuels may be receptive enough to support wildfire-spread potential, hence the maintenance of Elevated fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...17Z Update... The previous forecast remains valid and largely unchanged. An expansion of the Southern Plains Elevated area further southwest into Central TX was introduced in order to cover hot, dry, and windy conditions this afternoon and early evening that overlap with supportive fuels. Localized dry and breezy conditions may occur across Southwest OR. However, no Elevated highlight will be introduced at this time. See previous discussion for more information. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic mid-level flow will overspread much of the northwestern and north-central CONUS today, with an embedded mid-level impulse overspreading the northern Plains as a 500 mb jet max impinges on the Pacific Northwest. Coincident with low pressure development in the Central California Valley region, 15+ mph sustained northerly surface winds may develop by afternoon in the Sacramento into Napa Valleys as RH drops to or just below 15 percent. Given receptive fuels in this region, Elevated highlights have been maintained. Locally dry and breezy conditions should also develop along the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney and Columbia basins in eastern Oregon and Washington (respectively). Fuels continue to cure across the Pacific Northwest, but are currently only modestly receptive at best on a widespread basis. Given the localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions, and given modest fuel receptiveness, no fire weather highlights have been introduced. Finally, surface low development over the central Plains will encourage dry southerly low-level flow over the southern High Plains as the boundary layer deepens and mixes by afternoon. Latest guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds overlapping 20-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given the stress of fuels under hot conditions over the past few days, fuels may be receptive enough to support wildfire-spread potential, hence the maintenance of Elevated fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...17Z Update... The previous forecast remains valid and largely unchanged. An expansion of the Southern Plains Elevated area further southwest into Central TX was introduced in order to cover hot, dry, and windy conditions this afternoon and early evening that overlap with supportive fuels. Localized dry and breezy conditions may occur across Southwest OR. However, no Elevated highlight will be introduced at this time. See previous discussion for more information. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic mid-level flow will overspread much of the northwestern and north-central CONUS today, with an embedded mid-level impulse overspreading the northern Plains as a 500 mb jet max impinges on the Pacific Northwest. Coincident with low pressure development in the Central California Valley region, 15+ mph sustained northerly surface winds may develop by afternoon in the Sacramento into Napa Valleys as RH drops to or just below 15 percent. Given receptive fuels in this region, Elevated highlights have been maintained. Locally dry and breezy conditions should also develop along the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney and Columbia basins in eastern Oregon and Washington (respectively). Fuels continue to cure across the Pacific Northwest, but are currently only modestly receptive at best on a widespread basis. Given the localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions, and given modest fuel receptiveness, no fire weather highlights have been introduced. Finally, surface low development over the central Plains will encourage dry southerly low-level flow over the southern High Plains as the boundary layer deepens and mixes by afternoon. Latest guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds overlapping 20-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given the stress of fuels under hot conditions over the past few days, fuels may be receptive enough to support wildfire-spread potential, hence the maintenance of Elevated fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more