Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST NEVADA... ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough within broader cyclonic flow in the Northwest will move through central California into western Nevada today. A surface trough in the Northwest/northern Rockies will promote dry and breezy conditions in parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Broadly elevated fire weather conditions are expected over much of Nevada into far southern Idaho. Winds of 15-20 mph will be the most common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. A small region of northwest Nevada may experience briefly critical conditions as both the terrain and the mid-level jet help to enhance surface winds to 20-25 mph. ...Northwest... Forcing for ascent from the upper trough will promote isolated thunderstorms from north-central California into central Idaho. With the mid-level jet more focused in northern Nevada, storm motions will not be overly fast. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are most probable. Recent CAM guidance also differs on the exact degree of coverage, but enough confidence in at least isolated activity is present for highlights. ..Wendt.. 08/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST NEVADA... ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough within broader cyclonic flow in the Northwest will move through central California into western Nevada today. A surface trough in the Northwest/northern Rockies will promote dry and breezy conditions in parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Broadly elevated fire weather conditions are expected over much of Nevada into far southern Idaho. Winds of 15-20 mph will be the most common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. A small region of northwest Nevada may experience briefly critical conditions as both the terrain and the mid-level jet help to enhance surface winds to 20-25 mph. ...Northwest... Forcing for ascent from the upper trough will promote isolated thunderstorms from north-central California into central Idaho. With the mid-level jet more focused in northern Nevada, storm motions will not be overly fast. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are most probable. Recent CAM guidance also differs on the exact degree of coverage, but enough confidence in at least isolated activity is present for highlights. ..Wendt.. 08/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin into the northern/central High Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...Eastern Great Basin to the Northern/Central High Plains... Upper ridging will remain over much of the Plains on Tuesday, while a mid-level shortwave trough develops northeastward from the interior Pacific Northwest across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Modest low-level mass response ahead of this shortwave trough should encourage the development/sharpening of a weak surface low and associated lee trough extending southward along much of the length of the northern/central High Plains. Northward advance of low-level moisture is expected across these areas, along and east of the lee trough. Steepened mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating of this moistening airmass should support moderate instability developing by late Tuesday afternoon. Although mid-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong in association with the mid-level shortwave trough, gradual veering and modest strengthening of the wind field with height through mid/upper levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear for some thunderstorm organization. An isolated threat for hail and severe winds should exist with any robust cores that can develop along the length of the lee trough and subsequently spread eastward Tuesday afternoon through evening. Confidence in a more focused area of severe potential remains too low to include greater severe probabilities at this time. There also appears to be some chance for stronger thunderstorms to occur across the eastern Great Basin into parts of the northern/central Rockies. While low-level moisture will generally be more limited compared to the High Plains, sufficient instability and deep-layer shear to support modestly organized convection are forecast. Isolated hail and strong to severe wind gusts may occur with this high-based activity as it spreads east-northeastward through Tuesday afternoon and early evening. Therefore, the Marginal Risk has been expanded westward to include more of WY, southern MT, eastern ID, and northern/eastern UT based on latest guidance trends. ...South Carolina and Vicinity... As a mid/upper-level trough persists over the eastern states, some enhancement to west-northwesterly winds will occur across parts of the OH/TN Valleys into the Carolinas and Southeast on Tuesday. Deep-layer shear should be strong enough for modestly organized convection. But, poor lapse rates aloft may tend to limit instability to some extent across SC and vicinity Tuesday afternoon. Regardless, confidence has increased that isolated to scattered thunderstorms capable of producing occasionally strong to damaging winds should occur, and a Marginal Risk has been introduced to account for this potential. ..Gleason.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin into the northern/central High Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...Eastern Great Basin to the Northern/Central High Plains... Upper ridging will remain over much of the Plains on Tuesday, while a mid-level shortwave trough develops northeastward from the interior Pacific Northwest across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Modest low-level mass response ahead of this shortwave trough should encourage the development/sharpening of a weak surface low and associated lee trough extending southward along much of the length of the northern/central High Plains. Northward advance of low-level moisture is expected across these areas, along and east of the lee trough. Steepened mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating of this moistening airmass should support moderate instability developing by late Tuesday afternoon. Although mid-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong in association with the mid-level shortwave trough, gradual veering and modest strengthening of the wind field with height through mid/upper levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear for some thunderstorm organization. An isolated threat for hail and severe winds should exist with any robust cores that can develop along the length of the lee trough and subsequently spread eastward Tuesday afternoon through evening. Confidence in a more focused area of severe potential remains too low to include greater severe probabilities at this time. There also appears to be some chance for stronger thunderstorms to occur across the eastern Great Basin into parts of the northern/central Rockies. While low-level moisture will generally be more limited compared to the High Plains, sufficient instability and deep-layer shear to support modestly organized convection are forecast. Isolated hail and strong to severe wind gusts may occur with this high-based activity as it spreads east-northeastward through Tuesday afternoon and early evening. Therefore, the Marginal Risk has been expanded westward to include more of WY, southern MT, eastern ID, and northern/eastern UT based on latest guidance trends. ...South Carolina and Vicinity... As a mid/upper-level trough persists over the eastern states, some enhancement to west-northwesterly winds will occur across parts of the OH/TN Valleys into the Carolinas and Southeast on Tuesday. Deep-layer shear should be strong enough for modestly organized convection. But, poor lapse rates aloft may tend to limit instability to some extent across SC and vicinity Tuesday afternoon. Regardless, confidence has increased that isolated to scattered thunderstorms capable of producing occasionally strong to damaging winds should occur, and a Marginal Risk has been introduced to account for this potential. ..Gleason.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin into the northern/central High Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...Eastern Great Basin to the Northern/Central High Plains... Upper ridging will remain over much of the Plains on Tuesday, while a mid-level shortwave trough develops northeastward from the interior Pacific Northwest across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Modest low-level mass response ahead of this shortwave trough should encourage the development/sharpening of a weak surface low and associated lee trough extending southward along much of the length of the northern/central High Plains. Northward advance of low-level moisture is expected across these areas, along and east of the lee trough. Steepened mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating of this moistening airmass should support moderate instability developing by late Tuesday afternoon. Although mid-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong in association with the mid-level shortwave trough, gradual veering and modest strengthening of the wind field with height through mid/upper levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear for some thunderstorm organization. An isolated threat for hail and severe winds should exist with any robust cores that can develop along the length of the lee trough and subsequently spread eastward Tuesday afternoon through evening. Confidence in a more focused area of severe potential remains too low to include greater severe probabilities at this time. There also appears to be some chance for stronger thunderstorms to occur across the eastern Great Basin into parts of the northern/central Rockies. While low-level moisture will generally be more limited compared to the High Plains, sufficient instability and deep-layer shear to support modestly organized convection are forecast. Isolated hail and strong to severe wind gusts may occur with this high-based activity as it spreads east-northeastward through Tuesday afternoon and early evening. Therefore, the Marginal Risk has been expanded westward to include more of WY, southern MT, eastern ID, and northern/eastern UT based on latest guidance trends. ...South Carolina and Vicinity... As a mid/upper-level trough persists over the eastern states, some enhancement to west-northwesterly winds will occur across parts of the OH/TN Valleys into the Carolinas and Southeast on Tuesday. Deep-layer shear should be strong enough for modestly organized convection. But, poor lapse rates aloft may tend to limit instability to some extent across SC and vicinity Tuesday afternoon. Regardless, confidence has increased that isolated to scattered thunderstorms capable of producing occasionally strong to damaging winds should occur, and a Marginal Risk has been introduced to account for this potential. ..Gleason.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin into the northern/central High Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...Eastern Great Basin to the Northern/Central High Plains... Upper ridging will remain over much of the Plains on Tuesday, while a mid-level shortwave trough develops northeastward from the interior Pacific Northwest across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Modest low-level mass response ahead of this shortwave trough should encourage the development/sharpening of a weak surface low and associated lee trough extending southward along much of the length of the northern/central High Plains. Northward advance of low-level moisture is expected across these areas, along and east of the lee trough. Steepened mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating of this moistening airmass should support moderate instability developing by late Tuesday afternoon. Although mid-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong in association with the mid-level shortwave trough, gradual veering and modest strengthening of the wind field with height through mid/upper levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear for some thunderstorm organization. An isolated threat for hail and severe winds should exist with any robust cores that can develop along the length of the lee trough and subsequently spread eastward Tuesday afternoon through evening. Confidence in a more focused area of severe potential remains too low to include greater severe probabilities at this time. There also appears to be some chance for stronger thunderstorms to occur across the eastern Great Basin into parts of the northern/central Rockies. While low-level moisture will generally be more limited compared to the High Plains, sufficient instability and deep-layer shear to support modestly organized convection are forecast. Isolated hail and strong to severe wind gusts may occur with this high-based activity as it spreads east-northeastward through Tuesday afternoon and early evening. Therefore, the Marginal Risk has been expanded westward to include more of WY, southern MT, eastern ID, and northern/eastern UT based on latest guidance trends. ...South Carolina and Vicinity... As a mid/upper-level trough persists over the eastern states, some enhancement to west-northwesterly winds will occur across parts of the OH/TN Valleys into the Carolinas and Southeast on Tuesday. Deep-layer shear should be strong enough for modestly organized convection. But, poor lapse rates aloft may tend to limit instability to some extent across SC and vicinity Tuesday afternoon. Regardless, confidence has increased that isolated to scattered thunderstorms capable of producing occasionally strong to damaging winds should occur, and a Marginal Risk has been introduced to account for this potential. ..Gleason.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin into the northern/central High Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...Eastern Great Basin to the Northern/Central High Plains... Upper ridging will remain over much of the Plains on Tuesday, while a mid-level shortwave trough develops northeastward from the interior Pacific Northwest across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Modest low-level mass response ahead of this shortwave trough should encourage the development/sharpening of a weak surface low and associated lee trough extending southward along much of the length of the northern/central High Plains. Northward advance of low-level moisture is expected across these areas, along and east of the lee trough. Steepened mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating of this moistening airmass should support moderate instability developing by late Tuesday afternoon. Although mid-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong in association with the mid-level shortwave trough, gradual veering and modest strengthening of the wind field with height through mid/upper levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear for some thunderstorm organization. An isolated threat for hail and severe winds should exist with any robust cores that can develop along the length of the lee trough and subsequently spread eastward Tuesday afternoon through evening. Confidence in a more focused area of severe potential remains too low to include greater severe probabilities at this time. There also appears to be some chance for stronger thunderstorms to occur across the eastern Great Basin into parts of the northern/central Rockies. While low-level moisture will generally be more limited compared to the High Plains, sufficient instability and deep-layer shear to support modestly organized convection are forecast. Isolated hail and strong to severe wind gusts may occur with this high-based activity as it spreads east-northeastward through Tuesday afternoon and early evening. Therefore, the Marginal Risk has been expanded westward to include more of WY, southern MT, eastern ID, and northern/eastern UT based on latest guidance trends. ...South Carolina and Vicinity... As a mid/upper-level trough persists over the eastern states, some enhancement to west-northwesterly winds will occur across parts of the OH/TN Valleys into the Carolinas and Southeast on Tuesday. Deep-layer shear should be strong enough for modestly organized convection. But, poor lapse rates aloft may tend to limit instability to some extent across SC and vicinity Tuesday afternoon. Regardless, confidence has increased that isolated to scattered thunderstorms capable of producing occasionally strong to damaging winds should occur, and a Marginal Risk has been introduced to account for this potential. ..Gleason.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, the upper trough will lift out of the northern Great Basin and into the northern High Plains, all while losing amplitude. While some increase in mid-level winds may occur over the Great Basin, this will not occur until late in the period. At the surface, the pressure pattern will be more disorganized than Monday and stronger winds will likely be diurnally/terrain-driven. ...Nevada... Areas of locally elevated fire weather are possible as RH will still fall to 15-20% during the afternoon. Slightly stronger winds appear possible in southern Nevada, but fuels are also less receptive than farther north. Sustained elevated conditions are not currently expected. ...Central Idaho... With the mid-level trough moving through early in the period, mid/upper-level cloud cover will be possible. This may impact destabilization enough to reduce potential storm coverage during the afternoon. Should storms occur, some could be dry. Confidence in coverage is too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 08/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, the upper trough will lift out of the northern Great Basin and into the northern High Plains, all while losing amplitude. While some increase in mid-level winds may occur over the Great Basin, this will not occur until late in the period. At the surface, the pressure pattern will be more disorganized than Monday and stronger winds will likely be diurnally/terrain-driven. ...Nevada... Areas of locally elevated fire weather are possible as RH will still fall to 15-20% during the afternoon. Slightly stronger winds appear possible in southern Nevada, but fuels are also less receptive than farther north. Sustained elevated conditions are not currently expected. ...Central Idaho... With the mid-level trough moving through early in the period, mid/upper-level cloud cover will be possible. This may impact destabilization enough to reduce potential storm coverage during the afternoon. Should storms occur, some could be dry. Confidence in coverage is too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 08/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, the upper trough will lift out of the northern Great Basin and into the northern High Plains, all while losing amplitude. While some increase in mid-level winds may occur over the Great Basin, this will not occur until late in the period. At the surface, the pressure pattern will be more disorganized than Monday and stronger winds will likely be diurnally/terrain-driven. ...Nevada... Areas of locally elevated fire weather are possible as RH will still fall to 15-20% during the afternoon. Slightly stronger winds appear possible in southern Nevada, but fuels are also less receptive than farther north. Sustained elevated conditions are not currently expected. ...Central Idaho... With the mid-level trough moving through early in the period, mid/upper-level cloud cover will be possible. This may impact destabilization enough to reduce potential storm coverage during the afternoon. Should storms occur, some could be dry. Confidence in coverage is too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 08/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, the upper trough will lift out of the northern Great Basin and into the northern High Plains, all while losing amplitude. While some increase in mid-level winds may occur over the Great Basin, this will not occur until late in the period. At the surface, the pressure pattern will be more disorganized than Monday and stronger winds will likely be diurnally/terrain-driven. ...Nevada... Areas of locally elevated fire weather are possible as RH will still fall to 15-20% during the afternoon. Slightly stronger winds appear possible in southern Nevada, but fuels are also less receptive than farther north. Sustained elevated conditions are not currently expected. ...Central Idaho... With the mid-level trough moving through early in the period, mid/upper-level cloud cover will be possible. This may impact destabilization enough to reduce potential storm coverage during the afternoon. Should storms occur, some could be dry. Confidence in coverage is too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 08/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, the upper trough will lift out of the northern Great Basin and into the northern High Plains, all while losing amplitude. While some increase in mid-level winds may occur over the Great Basin, this will not occur until late in the period. At the surface, the pressure pattern will be more disorganized than Monday and stronger winds will likely be diurnally/terrain-driven. ...Nevada... Areas of locally elevated fire weather are possible as RH will still fall to 15-20% during the afternoon. Slightly stronger winds appear possible in southern Nevada, but fuels are also less receptive than farther north. Sustained elevated conditions are not currently expected. ...Central Idaho... With the mid-level trough moving through early in the period, mid/upper-level cloud cover will be possible. This may impact destabilization enough to reduce potential storm coverage during the afternoon. Should storms occur, some could be dry. Confidence in coverage is too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 08/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough within broader cyclonic flow in the Northwest will move through central California into western Nevada today. A surface trough in the Northwest/northern Rockies will promote dry and breezy conditions in parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Broadly elevated fire weather conditions are expected over much of Nevada into far southern Idaho. Winds of 15-20 mph will be the most common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. A small region of northwest Nevada may experience briefly critical conditions as both the terrain and the mid-level jet help to enhance surface winds to 20-25 mph. ...Northwest... Forcing for ascent from the upper trough will promote isolated thunderstorms from north-central California into central Idaho. With the mid-level jet more focused in northern Nevada, storm motions will not be overly fast. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are most probable. Recent CAM guidance also differs on the exact degree of coverage, but enough confidence in at least isolated activity is present for highlights. ..Wendt.. 08/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough within broader cyclonic flow in the Northwest will move through central California into western Nevada today. A surface trough in the Northwest/northern Rockies will promote dry and breezy conditions in parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Broadly elevated fire weather conditions are expected over much of Nevada into far southern Idaho. Winds of 15-20 mph will be the most common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. A small region of northwest Nevada may experience briefly critical conditions as both the terrain and the mid-level jet help to enhance surface winds to 20-25 mph. ...Northwest... Forcing for ascent from the upper trough will promote isolated thunderstorms from north-central California into central Idaho. With the mid-level jet more focused in northern Nevada, storm motions will not be overly fast. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are most probable. Recent CAM guidance also differs on the exact degree of coverage, but enough confidence in at least isolated activity is present for highlights. ..Wendt.. 08/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS REGION AND COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe gusts are possible with convection across portions of the CONUS this afternoon. However, organized severe is not currently anticipated. ...Rockies/Central High Plains Region... Upper anticyclone is expected to refocus itself over north TX by the end of the period as west coast troughing helps to nudge the Rockies ridge east a bit. Latest model guidance suggests several weak disturbances will eject across the Great Basin toward the central Rockies, and these features should encourage convection during the afternoon/evening. While mid-level flow is not forecast to be particularly strong, boundary-layer heating across the interior Rockies region will contribute to adequate buoyancy for robust convection. Forecast soundings across UT into eastern ID favor gusty winds with afternoon/evening convection as low-level lapse rates will be steep. Downstream along the CO Front Range, southeasterly low-level flow will maintain upslope convergence into the higher terrain and scattered thunderstorms will develop as convective temperatures are breached, likely by 21-22z. This activity will spread/propagate toward the High Plains aided by 25kt 500mb westerly flow. LLJ should increase across the TX Panhandle into southwest KS during the evening and this will encourage eastward propagation across the central High Plains during the overnight hours. ...Coastal Carolinas... Southern influence of eastern US trough will affect the Carolinas later today. Models suggest 20-30kt mid-level flow will extend across a frontal zone that will be draped over coastal regions. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. Marginally severe gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS REGION AND COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe gusts are possible with convection across portions of the CONUS this afternoon. However, organized severe is not currently anticipated. ...Rockies/Central High Plains Region... Upper anticyclone is expected to refocus itself over north TX by the end of the period as west coast troughing helps to nudge the Rockies ridge east a bit. Latest model guidance suggests several weak disturbances will eject across the Great Basin toward the central Rockies, and these features should encourage convection during the afternoon/evening. While mid-level flow is not forecast to be particularly strong, boundary-layer heating across the interior Rockies region will contribute to adequate buoyancy for robust convection. Forecast soundings across UT into eastern ID favor gusty winds with afternoon/evening convection as low-level lapse rates will be steep. Downstream along the CO Front Range, southeasterly low-level flow will maintain upslope convergence into the higher terrain and scattered thunderstorms will develop as convective temperatures are breached, likely by 21-22z. This activity will spread/propagate toward the High Plains aided by 25kt 500mb westerly flow. LLJ should increase across the TX Panhandle into southwest KS during the evening and this will encourage eastward propagation across the central High Plains during the overnight hours. ...Coastal Carolinas... Southern influence of eastern US trough will affect the Carolinas later today. Models suggest 20-30kt mid-level flow will extend across a frontal zone that will be draped over coastal regions. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. Marginally severe gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS REGION AND COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe gusts are possible with convection across portions of the CONUS this afternoon. However, organized severe is not currently anticipated. ...Rockies/Central High Plains Region... Upper anticyclone is expected to refocus itself over north TX by the end of the period as west coast troughing helps to nudge the Rockies ridge east a bit. Latest model guidance suggests several weak disturbances will eject across the Great Basin toward the central Rockies, and these features should encourage convection during the afternoon/evening. While mid-level flow is not forecast to be particularly strong, boundary-layer heating across the interior Rockies region will contribute to adequate buoyancy for robust convection. Forecast soundings across UT into eastern ID favor gusty winds with afternoon/evening convection as low-level lapse rates will be steep. Downstream along the CO Front Range, southeasterly low-level flow will maintain upslope convergence into the higher terrain and scattered thunderstorms will develop as convective temperatures are breached, likely by 21-22z. This activity will spread/propagate toward the High Plains aided by 25kt 500mb westerly flow. LLJ should increase across the TX Panhandle into southwest KS during the evening and this will encourage eastward propagation across the central High Plains during the overnight hours. ...Coastal Carolinas... Southern influence of eastern US trough will affect the Carolinas later today. Models suggest 20-30kt mid-level flow will extend across a frontal zone that will be draped over coastal regions. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. Marginally severe gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS REGION AND COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe gusts are possible with convection across portions of the CONUS this afternoon. However, organized severe is not currently anticipated. ...Rockies/Central High Plains Region... Upper anticyclone is expected to refocus itself over north TX by the end of the period as west coast troughing helps to nudge the Rockies ridge east a bit. Latest model guidance suggests several weak disturbances will eject across the Great Basin toward the central Rockies, and these features should encourage convection during the afternoon/evening. While mid-level flow is not forecast to be particularly strong, boundary-layer heating across the interior Rockies region will contribute to adequate buoyancy for robust convection. Forecast soundings across UT into eastern ID favor gusty winds with afternoon/evening convection as low-level lapse rates will be steep. Downstream along the CO Front Range, southeasterly low-level flow will maintain upslope convergence into the higher terrain and scattered thunderstorms will develop as convective temperatures are breached, likely by 21-22z. This activity will spread/propagate toward the High Plains aided by 25kt 500mb westerly flow. LLJ should increase across the TX Panhandle into southwest KS during the evening and this will encourage eastward propagation across the central High Plains during the overnight hours. ...Coastal Carolinas... Southern influence of eastern US trough will affect the Carolinas later today. Models suggest 20-30kt mid-level flow will extend across a frontal zone that will be draped over coastal regions. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. Marginally severe gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS REGION AND COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe gusts are possible with convection across portions of the CONUS this afternoon. However, organized severe is not currently anticipated. ...Rockies/Central High Plains Region... Upper anticyclone is expected to refocus itself over north TX by the end of the period as west coast troughing helps to nudge the Rockies ridge east a bit. Latest model guidance suggests several weak disturbances will eject across the Great Basin toward the central Rockies, and these features should encourage convection during the afternoon/evening. While mid-level flow is not forecast to be particularly strong, boundary-layer heating across the interior Rockies region will contribute to adequate buoyancy for robust convection. Forecast soundings across UT into eastern ID favor gusty winds with afternoon/evening convection as low-level lapse rates will be steep. Downstream along the CO Front Range, southeasterly low-level flow will maintain upslope convergence into the higher terrain and scattered thunderstorms will develop as convective temperatures are breached, likely by 21-22z. This activity will spread/propagate toward the High Plains aided by 25kt 500mb westerly flow. LLJ should increase across the TX Panhandle into southwest KS during the evening and this will encourage eastward propagation across the central High Plains during the overnight hours. ...Coastal Carolinas... Southern influence of eastern US trough will affect the Carolinas later today. Models suggest 20-30kt mid-level flow will extend across a frontal zone that will be draped over coastal regions. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. Marginally severe gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 08/12/2024 Read more

MD 1884 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 619... FOR WEST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1884 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Areas affected...West-central Nebraska...Northwest Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 619... Valid 120047Z - 120245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 619 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will likely continue for an hour or two, before becoming marginal. No additional weather watch issuance is expected. DISCUSSION...Mosaic radar imagery shows scattered to widely scattered strong to severe storms located from north-central Nebraska into far northwest Kansas. The storms are located to the east of an axis of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. This, combined with moderate deep-layer shear, evident on regional WSR-88D VWPs, will continue to be favorable for severe storms over the next couple of hours. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be the primary threats. However, the storms will move eastward into the central Plains, where instability is weaker and a capping inversion is present. This will result in a gradual weakening trend during the mid to late evening. ..Broyles.. 08/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 42180005 41940074 41300108 39750174 39120182 38760162 38660110 38730055 39220024 41709934 42180005 Read more