Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...EASTERN GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern Montana. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the Day 1 Outlook. Marginal risk for strong to severe gusts and large hail will continue through the afternoon across the central High Plains/Central Plains as well as the Intermountain West into the northern High Plains. See MCD#1186 and MCD#1885 for more information. Additional thunderstorm development is expected across a front portions of South Carolina this afternoon. Ahead of this boundary, the air mass has destabilized, with around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 20-30 kts of deep layer shear. Thunderstorms will be capable of instances of strong to severe wind. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Upslope flow will persist across the central High Plains, helping to maintain moderate low-level moisture across region. Afternoon dewpoints are expected to range from the upper 60s in the southeast CO/northeast NM/western Panhandles vicinity to the mid to upper 50s across eastern WY. This low-level moisture will help support moderate buoyancy during the afternoon/evening, although some limited capping may linger. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain before then progressing eastward into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Generally moderate deep-layer vertical shear coupled with the potential for some remaining convective inhibition suggest the severe potential will remain isolated, with damaging gusts and/or large hail as the primary severe risks. Thunderstorms will likely persist eastward into more of the central Plains, supported by moderate buoyancy and shear and the development of modest low-level jet. Isolated instances of large hail are possible, but the overall storm severity will likely be tempered by limited instability. ...Intermountain West into the Northern High Plains... Morning satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over TX covering much of the southern third of the CONUS and also extending northward into MT. Several shortwave troughs are moving through the westerlies within the northern periphery of this ridging, including a low-amplitude shortwave currently moving into ID and northern/central NV and another, more defined shortwave farther west off the northern CA coast. Eastward/northeastward progression of these waves will bring greater mid-level moisture and increased large-scale forcing for ascent, supporting the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. Mid-level flow will remain modest, but a few more organized/persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases atop steep low-level lapse rates could result in a few stronger gusts as these more persistent storms form into clusters, particularly from northern/central UT into far eastern ID and far western WY and northern MT. ...Coastal Carolinas... Far southern periphery of an upper trough currently extending from Quebec through the Upper OH Valley will glance this region today as it progresses eastward. Modest (i.e. 20-30kt) mid-level flow will overspread a moisture-rich airmass (i.e. PWs over 2") in place south of a front. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. A few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...EASTERN GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern Montana. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the Day 1 Outlook. Marginal risk for strong to severe gusts and large hail will continue through the afternoon across the central High Plains/Central Plains as well as the Intermountain West into the northern High Plains. See MCD#1186 and MCD#1885 for more information. Additional thunderstorm development is expected across a front portions of South Carolina this afternoon. Ahead of this boundary, the air mass has destabilized, with around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 20-30 kts of deep layer shear. Thunderstorms will be capable of instances of strong to severe wind. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Upslope flow will persist across the central High Plains, helping to maintain moderate low-level moisture across region. Afternoon dewpoints are expected to range from the upper 60s in the southeast CO/northeast NM/western Panhandles vicinity to the mid to upper 50s across eastern WY. This low-level moisture will help support moderate buoyancy during the afternoon/evening, although some limited capping may linger. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain before then progressing eastward into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Generally moderate deep-layer vertical shear coupled with the potential for some remaining convective inhibition suggest the severe potential will remain isolated, with damaging gusts and/or large hail as the primary severe risks. Thunderstorms will likely persist eastward into more of the central Plains, supported by moderate buoyancy and shear and the development of modest low-level jet. Isolated instances of large hail are possible, but the overall storm severity will likely be tempered by limited instability. ...Intermountain West into the Northern High Plains... Morning satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over TX covering much of the southern third of the CONUS and also extending northward into MT. Several shortwave troughs are moving through the westerlies within the northern periphery of this ridging, including a low-amplitude shortwave currently moving into ID and northern/central NV and another, more defined shortwave farther west off the northern CA coast. Eastward/northeastward progression of these waves will bring greater mid-level moisture and increased large-scale forcing for ascent, supporting the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. Mid-level flow will remain modest, but a few more organized/persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases atop steep low-level lapse rates could result in a few stronger gusts as these more persistent storms form into clusters, particularly from northern/central UT into far eastern ID and far western WY and northern MT. ...Coastal Carolinas... Far southern periphery of an upper trough currently extending from Quebec through the Upper OH Valley will glance this region today as it progresses eastward. Modest (i.e. 20-30kt) mid-level flow will overspread a moisture-rich airmass (i.e. PWs over 2") in place south of a front. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. A few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...EASTERN GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern Montana. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the Day 1 Outlook. Marginal risk for strong to severe gusts and large hail will continue through the afternoon across the central High Plains/Central Plains as well as the Intermountain West into the northern High Plains. See MCD#1186 and MCD#1885 for more information. Additional thunderstorm development is expected across a front portions of South Carolina this afternoon. Ahead of this boundary, the air mass has destabilized, with around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 20-30 kts of deep layer shear. Thunderstorms will be capable of instances of strong to severe wind. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Upslope flow will persist across the central High Plains, helping to maintain moderate low-level moisture across region. Afternoon dewpoints are expected to range from the upper 60s in the southeast CO/northeast NM/western Panhandles vicinity to the mid to upper 50s across eastern WY. This low-level moisture will help support moderate buoyancy during the afternoon/evening, although some limited capping may linger. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain before then progressing eastward into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Generally moderate deep-layer vertical shear coupled with the potential for some remaining convective inhibition suggest the severe potential will remain isolated, with damaging gusts and/or large hail as the primary severe risks. Thunderstorms will likely persist eastward into more of the central Plains, supported by moderate buoyancy and shear and the development of modest low-level jet. Isolated instances of large hail are possible, but the overall storm severity will likely be tempered by limited instability. ...Intermountain West into the Northern High Plains... Morning satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over TX covering much of the southern third of the CONUS and also extending northward into MT. Several shortwave troughs are moving through the westerlies within the northern periphery of this ridging, including a low-amplitude shortwave currently moving into ID and northern/central NV and another, more defined shortwave farther west off the northern CA coast. Eastward/northeastward progression of these waves will bring greater mid-level moisture and increased large-scale forcing for ascent, supporting the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. Mid-level flow will remain modest, but a few more organized/persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases atop steep low-level lapse rates could result in a few stronger gusts as these more persistent storms form into clusters, particularly from northern/central UT into far eastern ID and far western WY and northern MT. ...Coastal Carolinas... Far southern periphery of an upper trough currently extending from Quebec through the Upper OH Valley will glance this region today as it progresses eastward. Modest (i.e. 20-30kt) mid-level flow will overspread a moisture-rich airmass (i.e. PWs over 2") in place south of a front. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. A few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...EASTERN GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern Montana. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the Day 1 Outlook. Marginal risk for strong to severe gusts and large hail will continue through the afternoon across the central High Plains/Central Plains as well as the Intermountain West into the northern High Plains. See MCD#1186 and MCD#1885 for more information. Additional thunderstorm development is expected across a front portions of South Carolina this afternoon. Ahead of this boundary, the air mass has destabilized, with around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 20-30 kts of deep layer shear. Thunderstorms will be capable of instances of strong to severe wind. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Upslope flow will persist across the central High Plains, helping to maintain moderate low-level moisture across region. Afternoon dewpoints are expected to range from the upper 60s in the southeast CO/northeast NM/western Panhandles vicinity to the mid to upper 50s across eastern WY. This low-level moisture will help support moderate buoyancy during the afternoon/evening, although some limited capping may linger. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain before then progressing eastward into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Generally moderate deep-layer vertical shear coupled with the potential for some remaining convective inhibition suggest the severe potential will remain isolated, with damaging gusts and/or large hail as the primary severe risks. Thunderstorms will likely persist eastward into more of the central Plains, supported by moderate buoyancy and shear and the development of modest low-level jet. Isolated instances of large hail are possible, but the overall storm severity will likely be tempered by limited instability. ...Intermountain West into the Northern High Plains... Morning satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over TX covering much of the southern third of the CONUS and also extending northward into MT. Several shortwave troughs are moving through the westerlies within the northern periphery of this ridging, including a low-amplitude shortwave currently moving into ID and northern/central NV and another, more defined shortwave farther west off the northern CA coast. Eastward/northeastward progression of these waves will bring greater mid-level moisture and increased large-scale forcing for ascent, supporting the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. Mid-level flow will remain modest, but a few more organized/persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases atop steep low-level lapse rates could result in a few stronger gusts as these more persistent storms form into clusters, particularly from northern/central UT into far eastern ID and far western WY and northern MT. ...Coastal Carolinas... Far southern periphery of an upper trough currently extending from Quebec through the Upper OH Valley will glance this region today as it progresses eastward. Modest (i.e. 20-30kt) mid-level flow will overspread a moisture-rich airmass (i.e. PWs over 2") in place south of a front. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. A few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...EASTERN GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern Montana. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the Day 1 Outlook. Marginal risk for strong to severe gusts and large hail will continue through the afternoon across the central High Plains/Central Plains as well as the Intermountain West into the northern High Plains. See MCD#1186 and MCD#1885 for more information. Additional thunderstorm development is expected across a front portions of South Carolina this afternoon. Ahead of this boundary, the air mass has destabilized, with around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 20-30 kts of deep layer shear. Thunderstorms will be capable of instances of strong to severe wind. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Upslope flow will persist across the central High Plains, helping to maintain moderate low-level moisture across region. Afternoon dewpoints are expected to range from the upper 60s in the southeast CO/northeast NM/western Panhandles vicinity to the mid to upper 50s across eastern WY. This low-level moisture will help support moderate buoyancy during the afternoon/evening, although some limited capping may linger. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain before then progressing eastward into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Generally moderate deep-layer vertical shear coupled with the potential for some remaining convective inhibition suggest the severe potential will remain isolated, with damaging gusts and/or large hail as the primary severe risks. Thunderstorms will likely persist eastward into more of the central Plains, supported by moderate buoyancy and shear and the development of modest low-level jet. Isolated instances of large hail are possible, but the overall storm severity will likely be tempered by limited instability. ...Intermountain West into the Northern High Plains... Morning satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over TX covering much of the southern third of the CONUS and also extending northward into MT. Several shortwave troughs are moving through the westerlies within the northern periphery of this ridging, including a low-amplitude shortwave currently moving into ID and northern/central NV and another, more defined shortwave farther west off the northern CA coast. Eastward/northeastward progression of these waves will bring greater mid-level moisture and increased large-scale forcing for ascent, supporting the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. Mid-level flow will remain modest, but a few more organized/persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases atop steep low-level lapse rates could result in a few stronger gusts as these more persistent storms form into clusters, particularly from northern/central UT into far eastern ID and far western WY and northern MT. ...Coastal Carolinas... Far southern periphery of an upper trough currently extending from Quebec through the Upper OH Valley will glance this region today as it progresses eastward. Modest (i.e. 20-30kt) mid-level flow will overspread a moisture-rich airmass (i.e. PWs over 2") in place south of a front. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. A few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...EASTERN GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern Montana. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the Day 1 Outlook. Marginal risk for strong to severe gusts and large hail will continue through the afternoon across the central High Plains/Central Plains as well as the Intermountain West into the northern High Plains. See MCD#1186 and MCD#1885 for more information. Additional thunderstorm development is expected across a front portions of South Carolina this afternoon. Ahead of this boundary, the air mass has destabilized, with around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 20-30 kts of deep layer shear. Thunderstorms will be capable of instances of strong to severe wind. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Upslope flow will persist across the central High Plains, helping to maintain moderate low-level moisture across region. Afternoon dewpoints are expected to range from the upper 60s in the southeast CO/northeast NM/western Panhandles vicinity to the mid to upper 50s across eastern WY. This low-level moisture will help support moderate buoyancy during the afternoon/evening, although some limited capping may linger. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain before then progressing eastward into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Generally moderate deep-layer vertical shear coupled with the potential for some remaining convective inhibition suggest the severe potential will remain isolated, with damaging gusts and/or large hail as the primary severe risks. Thunderstorms will likely persist eastward into more of the central Plains, supported by moderate buoyancy and shear and the development of modest low-level jet. Isolated instances of large hail are possible, but the overall storm severity will likely be tempered by limited instability. ...Intermountain West into the Northern High Plains... Morning satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over TX covering much of the southern third of the CONUS and also extending northward into MT. Several shortwave troughs are moving through the westerlies within the northern periphery of this ridging, including a low-amplitude shortwave currently moving into ID and northern/central NV and another, more defined shortwave farther west off the northern CA coast. Eastward/northeastward progression of these waves will bring greater mid-level moisture and increased large-scale forcing for ascent, supporting the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. Mid-level flow will remain modest, but a few more organized/persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases atop steep low-level lapse rates could result in a few stronger gusts as these more persistent storms form into clusters, particularly from northern/central UT into far eastern ID and far western WY and northern MT. ...Coastal Carolinas... Far southern periphery of an upper trough currently extending from Quebec through the Upper OH Valley will glance this region today as it progresses eastward. Modest (i.e. 20-30kt) mid-level flow will overspread a moisture-rich airmass (i.e. PWs over 2") in place south of a front. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. A few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...EASTERN GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern Montana. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the Day 1 Outlook. Marginal risk for strong to severe gusts and large hail will continue through the afternoon across the central High Plains/Central Plains as well as the Intermountain West into the northern High Plains. See MCD#1186 and MCD#1885 for more information. Additional thunderstorm development is expected across a front portions of South Carolina this afternoon. Ahead of this boundary, the air mass has destabilized, with around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 20-30 kts of deep layer shear. Thunderstorms will be capable of instances of strong to severe wind. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Upslope flow will persist across the central High Plains, helping to maintain moderate low-level moisture across region. Afternoon dewpoints are expected to range from the upper 60s in the southeast CO/northeast NM/western Panhandles vicinity to the mid to upper 50s across eastern WY. This low-level moisture will help support moderate buoyancy during the afternoon/evening, although some limited capping may linger. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain before then progressing eastward into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Generally moderate deep-layer vertical shear coupled with the potential for some remaining convective inhibition suggest the severe potential will remain isolated, with damaging gusts and/or large hail as the primary severe risks. Thunderstorms will likely persist eastward into more of the central Plains, supported by moderate buoyancy and shear and the development of modest low-level jet. Isolated instances of large hail are possible, but the overall storm severity will likely be tempered by limited instability. ...Intermountain West into the Northern High Plains... Morning satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over TX covering much of the southern third of the CONUS and also extending northward into MT. Several shortwave troughs are moving through the westerlies within the northern periphery of this ridging, including a low-amplitude shortwave currently moving into ID and northern/central NV and another, more defined shortwave farther west off the northern CA coast. Eastward/northeastward progression of these waves will bring greater mid-level moisture and increased large-scale forcing for ascent, supporting the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. Mid-level flow will remain modest, but a few more organized/persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases atop steep low-level lapse rates could result in a few stronger gusts as these more persistent storms form into clusters, particularly from northern/central UT into far eastern ID and far western WY and northern MT. ...Coastal Carolinas... Far southern periphery of an upper trough currently extending from Quebec through the Upper OH Valley will glance this region today as it progresses eastward. Modest (i.e. 20-30kt) mid-level flow will overspread a moisture-rich airmass (i.e. PWs over 2") in place south of a front. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. A few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...EASTERN GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern Montana. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the Day 1 Outlook. Marginal risk for strong to severe gusts and large hail will continue through the afternoon across the central High Plains/Central Plains as well as the Intermountain West into the northern High Plains. See MCD#1186 and MCD#1885 for more information. Additional thunderstorm development is expected across a front portions of South Carolina this afternoon. Ahead of this boundary, the air mass has destabilized, with around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 20-30 kts of deep layer shear. Thunderstorms will be capable of instances of strong to severe wind. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Upslope flow will persist across the central High Plains, helping to maintain moderate low-level moisture across region. Afternoon dewpoints are expected to range from the upper 60s in the southeast CO/northeast NM/western Panhandles vicinity to the mid to upper 50s across eastern WY. This low-level moisture will help support moderate buoyancy during the afternoon/evening, although some limited capping may linger. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain before then progressing eastward into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Generally moderate deep-layer vertical shear coupled with the potential for some remaining convective inhibition suggest the severe potential will remain isolated, with damaging gusts and/or large hail as the primary severe risks. Thunderstorms will likely persist eastward into more of the central Plains, supported by moderate buoyancy and shear and the development of modest low-level jet. Isolated instances of large hail are possible, but the overall storm severity will likely be tempered by limited instability. ...Intermountain West into the Northern High Plains... Morning satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over TX covering much of the southern third of the CONUS and also extending northward into MT. Several shortwave troughs are moving through the westerlies within the northern periphery of this ridging, including a low-amplitude shortwave currently moving into ID and northern/central NV and another, more defined shortwave farther west off the northern CA coast. Eastward/northeastward progression of these waves will bring greater mid-level moisture and increased large-scale forcing for ascent, supporting the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. Mid-level flow will remain modest, but a few more organized/persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases atop steep low-level lapse rates could result in a few stronger gusts as these more persistent storms form into clusters, particularly from northern/central UT into far eastern ID and far western WY and northern MT. ...Coastal Carolinas... Far southern periphery of an upper trough currently extending from Quebec through the Upper OH Valley will glance this region today as it progresses eastward. Modest (i.e. 20-30kt) mid-level flow will overspread a moisture-rich airmass (i.e. PWs over 2") in place south of a front. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. A few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...EASTERN GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern Montana. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the Day 1 Outlook. Marginal risk for strong to severe gusts and large hail will continue through the afternoon across the central High Plains/Central Plains as well as the Intermountain West into the northern High Plains. See MCD#1186 and MCD#1885 for more information. Additional thunderstorm development is expected across a front portions of South Carolina this afternoon. Ahead of this boundary, the air mass has destabilized, with around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 20-30 kts of deep layer shear. Thunderstorms will be capable of instances of strong to severe wind. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Upslope flow will persist across the central High Plains, helping to maintain moderate low-level moisture across region. Afternoon dewpoints are expected to range from the upper 60s in the southeast CO/northeast NM/western Panhandles vicinity to the mid to upper 50s across eastern WY. This low-level moisture will help support moderate buoyancy during the afternoon/evening, although some limited capping may linger. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain before then progressing eastward into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Generally moderate deep-layer vertical shear coupled with the potential for some remaining convective inhibition suggest the severe potential will remain isolated, with damaging gusts and/or large hail as the primary severe risks. Thunderstorms will likely persist eastward into more of the central Plains, supported by moderate buoyancy and shear and the development of modest low-level jet. Isolated instances of large hail are possible, but the overall storm severity will likely be tempered by limited instability. ...Intermountain West into the Northern High Plains... Morning satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over TX covering much of the southern third of the CONUS and also extending northward into MT. Several shortwave troughs are moving through the westerlies within the northern periphery of this ridging, including a low-amplitude shortwave currently moving into ID and northern/central NV and another, more defined shortwave farther west off the northern CA coast. Eastward/northeastward progression of these waves will bring greater mid-level moisture and increased large-scale forcing for ascent, supporting the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. Mid-level flow will remain modest, but a few more organized/persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases atop steep low-level lapse rates could result in a few stronger gusts as these more persistent storms form into clusters, particularly from northern/central UT into far eastern ID and far western WY and northern MT. ...Coastal Carolinas... Far southern periphery of an upper trough currently extending from Quebec through the Upper OH Valley will glance this region today as it progresses eastward. Modest (i.e. 20-30kt) mid-level flow will overspread a moisture-rich airmass (i.e. PWs over 2") in place south of a front. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. A few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...EASTERN GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern Montana. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the Day 1 Outlook. Marginal risk for strong to severe gusts and large hail will continue through the afternoon across the central High Plains/Central Plains as well as the Intermountain West into the northern High Plains. See MCD#1186 and MCD#1885 for more information. Additional thunderstorm development is expected across a front portions of South Carolina this afternoon. Ahead of this boundary, the air mass has destabilized, with around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 20-30 kts of deep layer shear. Thunderstorms will be capable of instances of strong to severe wind. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Upslope flow will persist across the central High Plains, helping to maintain moderate low-level moisture across region. Afternoon dewpoints are expected to range from the upper 60s in the southeast CO/northeast NM/western Panhandles vicinity to the mid to upper 50s across eastern WY. This low-level moisture will help support moderate buoyancy during the afternoon/evening, although some limited capping may linger. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain before then progressing eastward into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Generally moderate deep-layer vertical shear coupled with the potential for some remaining convective inhibition suggest the severe potential will remain isolated, with damaging gusts and/or large hail as the primary severe risks. Thunderstorms will likely persist eastward into more of the central Plains, supported by moderate buoyancy and shear and the development of modest low-level jet. Isolated instances of large hail are possible, but the overall storm severity will likely be tempered by limited instability. ...Intermountain West into the Northern High Plains... Morning satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over TX covering much of the southern third of the CONUS and also extending northward into MT. Several shortwave troughs are moving through the westerlies within the northern periphery of this ridging, including a low-amplitude shortwave currently moving into ID and northern/central NV and another, more defined shortwave farther west off the northern CA coast. Eastward/northeastward progression of these waves will bring greater mid-level moisture and increased large-scale forcing for ascent, supporting the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. Mid-level flow will remain modest, but a few more organized/persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases atop steep low-level lapse rates could result in a few stronger gusts as these more persistent storms form into clusters, particularly from northern/central UT into far eastern ID and far western WY and northern MT. ...Coastal Carolinas... Far southern periphery of an upper trough currently extending from Quebec through the Upper OH Valley will glance this region today as it progresses eastward. Modest (i.e. 20-30kt) mid-level flow will overspread a moisture-rich airmass (i.e. PWs over 2") in place south of a front. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. A few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...EASTERN GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern Montana. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the Day 1 Outlook. Marginal risk for strong to severe gusts and large hail will continue through the afternoon across the central High Plains/Central Plains as well as the Intermountain West into the northern High Plains. See MCD#1186 and MCD#1885 for more information. Additional thunderstorm development is expected across a front portions of South Carolina this afternoon. Ahead of this boundary, the air mass has destabilized, with around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 20-30 kts of deep layer shear. Thunderstorms will be capable of instances of strong to severe wind. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Upslope flow will persist across the central High Plains, helping to maintain moderate low-level moisture across region. Afternoon dewpoints are expected to range from the upper 60s in the southeast CO/northeast NM/western Panhandles vicinity to the mid to upper 50s across eastern WY. This low-level moisture will help support moderate buoyancy during the afternoon/evening, although some limited capping may linger. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain before then progressing eastward into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Generally moderate deep-layer vertical shear coupled with the potential for some remaining convective inhibition suggest the severe potential will remain isolated, with damaging gusts and/or large hail as the primary severe risks. Thunderstorms will likely persist eastward into more of the central Plains, supported by moderate buoyancy and shear and the development of modest low-level jet. Isolated instances of large hail are possible, but the overall storm severity will likely be tempered by limited instability. ...Intermountain West into the Northern High Plains... Morning satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over TX covering much of the southern third of the CONUS and also extending northward into MT. Several shortwave troughs are moving through the westerlies within the northern periphery of this ridging, including a low-amplitude shortwave currently moving into ID and northern/central NV and another, more defined shortwave farther west off the northern CA coast. Eastward/northeastward progression of these waves will bring greater mid-level moisture and increased large-scale forcing for ascent, supporting the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. Mid-level flow will remain modest, but a few more organized/persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases atop steep low-level lapse rates could result in a few stronger gusts as these more persistent storms form into clusters, particularly from northern/central UT into far eastern ID and far western WY and northern MT. ...Coastal Carolinas... Far southern periphery of an upper trough currently extending from Quebec through the Upper OH Valley will glance this region today as it progresses eastward. Modest (i.e. 20-30kt) mid-level flow will overspread a moisture-rich airmass (i.e. PWs over 2") in place south of a front. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. A few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...EASTERN GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern Montana. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the Day 1 Outlook. Marginal risk for strong to severe gusts and large hail will continue through the afternoon across the central High Plains/Central Plains as well as the Intermountain West into the northern High Plains. See MCD#1186 and MCD#1885 for more information. Additional thunderstorm development is expected across a front portions of South Carolina this afternoon. Ahead of this boundary, the air mass has destabilized, with around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 20-30 kts of deep layer shear. Thunderstorms will be capable of instances of strong to severe wind. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Upslope flow will persist across the central High Plains, helping to maintain moderate low-level moisture across region. Afternoon dewpoints are expected to range from the upper 60s in the southeast CO/northeast NM/western Panhandles vicinity to the mid to upper 50s across eastern WY. This low-level moisture will help support moderate buoyancy during the afternoon/evening, although some limited capping may linger. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain before then progressing eastward into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Generally moderate deep-layer vertical shear coupled with the potential for some remaining convective inhibition suggest the severe potential will remain isolated, with damaging gusts and/or large hail as the primary severe risks. Thunderstorms will likely persist eastward into more of the central Plains, supported by moderate buoyancy and shear and the development of modest low-level jet. Isolated instances of large hail are possible, but the overall storm severity will likely be tempered by limited instability. ...Intermountain West into the Northern High Plains... Morning satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over TX covering much of the southern third of the CONUS and also extending northward into MT. Several shortwave troughs are moving through the westerlies within the northern periphery of this ridging, including a low-amplitude shortwave currently moving into ID and northern/central NV and another, more defined shortwave farther west off the northern CA coast. Eastward/northeastward progression of these waves will bring greater mid-level moisture and increased large-scale forcing for ascent, supporting the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. Mid-level flow will remain modest, but a few more organized/persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases atop steep low-level lapse rates could result in a few stronger gusts as these more persistent storms form into clusters, particularly from northern/central UT into far eastern ID and far western WY and northern MT. ...Coastal Carolinas... Far southern periphery of an upper trough currently extending from Quebec through the Upper OH Valley will glance this region today as it progresses eastward. Modest (i.e. 20-30kt) mid-level flow will overspread a moisture-rich airmass (i.e. PWs over 2") in place south of a front. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. A few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...EASTERN GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern Montana. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the Day 1 Outlook. Marginal risk for strong to severe gusts and large hail will continue through the afternoon across the central High Plains/Central Plains as well as the Intermountain West into the northern High Plains. See MCD#1186 and MCD#1885 for more information. Additional thunderstorm development is expected across a front portions of South Carolina this afternoon. Ahead of this boundary, the air mass has destabilized, with around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 20-30 kts of deep layer shear. Thunderstorms will be capable of instances of strong to severe wind. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Upslope flow will persist across the central High Plains, helping to maintain moderate low-level moisture across region. Afternoon dewpoints are expected to range from the upper 60s in the southeast CO/northeast NM/western Panhandles vicinity to the mid to upper 50s across eastern WY. This low-level moisture will help support moderate buoyancy during the afternoon/evening, although some limited capping may linger. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain before then progressing eastward into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Generally moderate deep-layer vertical shear coupled with the potential for some remaining convective inhibition suggest the severe potential will remain isolated, with damaging gusts and/or large hail as the primary severe risks. Thunderstorms will likely persist eastward into more of the central Plains, supported by moderate buoyancy and shear and the development of modest low-level jet. Isolated instances of large hail are possible, but the overall storm severity will likely be tempered by limited instability. ...Intermountain West into the Northern High Plains... Morning satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over TX covering much of the southern third of the CONUS and also extending northward into MT. Several shortwave troughs are moving through the westerlies within the northern periphery of this ridging, including a low-amplitude shortwave currently moving into ID and northern/central NV and another, more defined shortwave farther west off the northern CA coast. Eastward/northeastward progression of these waves will bring greater mid-level moisture and increased large-scale forcing for ascent, supporting the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. Mid-level flow will remain modest, but a few more organized/persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases atop steep low-level lapse rates could result in a few stronger gusts as these more persistent storms form into clusters, particularly from northern/central UT into far eastern ID and far western WY and northern MT. ...Coastal Carolinas... Far southern periphery of an upper trough currently extending from Quebec through the Upper OH Valley will glance this region today as it progresses eastward. Modest (i.e. 20-30kt) mid-level flow will overspread a moisture-rich airmass (i.e. PWs over 2") in place south of a front. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. A few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A band of elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across a broad region of isentropic ascent from southeast South Dakota to southern Missouri. As the low-level jet weakens through the morning, expect the intensity of these storms to lessen as they move east into a more stable airmass. To the west, an unstable airmass is forecast across much of the central and northern Plains in the vicinity of a broad surface trough. At least weak to moderate instability is forecast with the potential for greater instability in eastern NE/KS where higher dewpoints (upper 60s to low 70s) are forecast. The breakdown of the upper-level ridge will lead to height falls across much of the central and northern Plains. Given the unstable environment across much of the area, this weak upper-level forcing combined with the surface trough will likely result in scattered thunderstorms across much of the central and northern Plains Wednesday afternoon/evening. A more focused threat may exist farther south across eastern Kansas in Nebraska. Some enhancement of the mid-level flow ahead of the ridge breakdown may lead to a localized region of more favorable wind shear, co-located with the forecast greater instability. If this occurs, particularly with the development of a surface low as forecast by the NAM/ECMWF, a locally greater severe weather threat may occur across this region. At this time, uncertainty in the mesoscale features which will impact this potential are too great to warrant higher severe weather probabilities. ..Bentley.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A band of elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across a broad region of isentropic ascent from southeast South Dakota to southern Missouri. As the low-level jet weakens through the morning, expect the intensity of these storms to lessen as they move east into a more stable airmass. To the west, an unstable airmass is forecast across much of the central and northern Plains in the vicinity of a broad surface trough. At least weak to moderate instability is forecast with the potential for greater instability in eastern NE/KS where higher dewpoints (upper 60s to low 70s) are forecast. The breakdown of the upper-level ridge will lead to height falls across much of the central and northern Plains. Given the unstable environment across much of the area, this weak upper-level forcing combined with the surface trough will likely result in scattered thunderstorms across much of the central and northern Plains Wednesday afternoon/evening. A more focused threat may exist farther south across eastern Kansas in Nebraska. Some enhancement of the mid-level flow ahead of the ridge breakdown may lead to a localized region of more favorable wind shear, co-located with the forecast greater instability. If this occurs, particularly with the development of a surface low as forecast by the NAM/ECMWF, a locally greater severe weather threat may occur across this region. At this time, uncertainty in the mesoscale features which will impact this potential are too great to warrant higher severe weather probabilities. ..Bentley.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z An isolated dry thunderstorm risk area has been introduced to portions of eastern OR into ID. Isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across far eastern OR, and should migrate eastward over the central ID mountains through the afternoon with little in the way of wetting rainfall given fast storm motions. A second round of convection remains possible during the late afternoon across southeast OR/southwest ID, and will likely feature dry convection given forecast PWAT values at/below 0.6 inch. While ensemble guidance has trended towards higher probability for this to occur, the overall signal remains fairly weak. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, the upper trough will lift out of the northern Great Basin and into the northern High Plains, all while losing amplitude. While some increase in mid-level winds may occur over the Great Basin, this will not occur until late in the period. At the surface, the pressure pattern will be more disorganized than Monday and stronger winds will likely be diurnally/terrain-driven. ...Nevada... Areas of locally elevated fire weather are possible as RH will still fall to 15-20% during the afternoon. Slightly stronger winds appear possible in southern Nevada, but fuels are also less receptive than farther north. Sustained elevated conditions are not currently expected. ...Central Idaho... With the mid-level trough moving through early in the period, mid/upper-level cloud cover will be possible. This may impact destabilization enough to reduce potential storm coverage during the afternoon. Should storms occur, some could be dry. Confidence in coverage is too low for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z An isolated dry thunderstorm risk area has been introduced to portions of eastern OR into ID. Isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across far eastern OR, and should migrate eastward over the central ID mountains through the afternoon with little in the way of wetting rainfall given fast storm motions. A second round of convection remains possible during the late afternoon across southeast OR/southwest ID, and will likely feature dry convection given forecast PWAT values at/below 0.6 inch. While ensemble guidance has trended towards higher probability for this to occur, the overall signal remains fairly weak. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, the upper trough will lift out of the northern Great Basin and into the northern High Plains, all while losing amplitude. While some increase in mid-level winds may occur over the Great Basin, this will not occur until late in the period. At the surface, the pressure pattern will be more disorganized than Monday and stronger winds will likely be diurnally/terrain-driven. ...Nevada... Areas of locally elevated fire weather are possible as RH will still fall to 15-20% during the afternoon. Slightly stronger winds appear possible in southern Nevada, but fuels are also less receptive than farther north. Sustained elevated conditions are not currently expected. ...Central Idaho... With the mid-level trough moving through early in the period, mid/upper-level cloud cover will be possible. This may impact destabilization enough to reduce potential storm coverage during the afternoon. Should storms occur, some could be dry. Confidence in coverage is too low for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z An isolated dry thunderstorm risk area has been introduced to portions of eastern OR into ID. Isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across far eastern OR, and should migrate eastward over the central ID mountains through the afternoon with little in the way of wetting rainfall given fast storm motions. A second round of convection remains possible during the late afternoon across southeast OR/southwest ID, and will likely feature dry convection given forecast PWAT values at/below 0.6 inch. While ensemble guidance has trended towards higher probability for this to occur, the overall signal remains fairly weak. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, the upper trough will lift out of the northern Great Basin and into the northern High Plains, all while losing amplitude. While some increase in mid-level winds may occur over the Great Basin, this will not occur until late in the period. At the surface, the pressure pattern will be more disorganized than Monday and stronger winds will likely be diurnally/terrain-driven. ...Nevada... Areas of locally elevated fire weather are possible as RH will still fall to 15-20% during the afternoon. Slightly stronger winds appear possible in southern Nevada, but fuels are also less receptive than farther north. Sustained elevated conditions are not currently expected. ...Central Idaho... With the mid-level trough moving through early in the period, mid/upper-level cloud cover will be possible. This may impact destabilization enough to reduce potential storm coverage during the afternoon. Should storms occur, some could be dry. Confidence in coverage is too low for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z An isolated dry thunderstorm risk area has been introduced to portions of eastern OR into ID. Isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across far eastern OR, and should migrate eastward over the central ID mountains through the afternoon with little in the way of wetting rainfall given fast storm motions. A second round of convection remains possible during the late afternoon across southeast OR/southwest ID, and will likely feature dry convection given forecast PWAT values at/below 0.6 inch. While ensemble guidance has trended towards higher probability for this to occur, the overall signal remains fairly weak. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, the upper trough will lift out of the northern Great Basin and into the northern High Plains, all while losing amplitude. While some increase in mid-level winds may occur over the Great Basin, this will not occur until late in the period. At the surface, the pressure pattern will be more disorganized than Monday and stronger winds will likely be diurnally/terrain-driven. ...Nevada... Areas of locally elevated fire weather are possible as RH will still fall to 15-20% during the afternoon. Slightly stronger winds appear possible in southern Nevada, but fuels are also less receptive than farther north. Sustained elevated conditions are not currently expected. ...Central Idaho... With the mid-level trough moving through early in the period, mid/upper-level cloud cover will be possible. This may impact destabilization enough to reduce potential storm coverage during the afternoon. Should storms occur, some could be dry. Confidence in coverage is too low for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z An isolated dry thunderstorm risk area has been introduced to portions of eastern OR into ID. Isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across far eastern OR, and should migrate eastward over the central ID mountains through the afternoon with little in the way of wetting rainfall given fast storm motions. A second round of convection remains possible during the late afternoon across southeast OR/southwest ID, and will likely feature dry convection given forecast PWAT values at/below 0.6 inch. While ensemble guidance has trended towards higher probability for this to occur, the overall signal remains fairly weak. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, the upper trough will lift out of the northern Great Basin and into the northern High Plains, all while losing amplitude. While some increase in mid-level winds may occur over the Great Basin, this will not occur until late in the period. At the surface, the pressure pattern will be more disorganized than Monday and stronger winds will likely be diurnally/terrain-driven. ...Nevada... Areas of locally elevated fire weather are possible as RH will still fall to 15-20% during the afternoon. Slightly stronger winds appear possible in southern Nevada, but fuels are also less receptive than farther north. Sustained elevated conditions are not currently expected. ...Central Idaho... With the mid-level trough moving through early in the period, mid/upper-level cloud cover will be possible. This may impact destabilization enough to reduce potential storm coverage during the afternoon. Should storms occur, some could be dry. Confidence in coverage is too low for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more