Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS...EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley, with greater potential for large hail and damaging winds across parts of northeast Kansas, eastern Nebraska, southwest Iowa, and northwest Missouri. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... Thunderstorms that should be ongoing at the start of the period Wednesday morning across parts of the mid MO Valley should gradually decrease in coverage and intensity through the early afternoon as a southwesterly low-level jet and related warm advection slowly weakens. Upper ridging is forecast to remain prominent through the period across the lower MS Valley/Southeast into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Upstream, weak upper troughing is expected to become established over the northern/central Plains, with multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations forecast to move eastward across these regions. At the surface, a broad warm sector should be in place along/ahead of a weak front/lee trough. Most guidance suggests that multiple weak surface lows should generally consolidate over parts of central/eastern NE/KS by early Wednesday evening. Greater low-level moisture, characterized by upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints, should be in place across parts of the central Plains into the mid MO Valley. This moisture is forecast to advect northward in tandem with a sharpening warm front through the day, although considerable uncertainty still exists with how far north into IA the warm sector will be able to develop. Robust thunderstorms should develop by late Wednesday afternoon across parts of eastern NE and northeast KS in the vicinity of a weak surface low and triple point. Moderate to strong instability will likely be in place due to ample daytime heating of the rather moist airmass, along with somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates. Even though mid/upper-level flow is forecast to be only modestly enhanced, veering and gradual strengthening of the wind field with height should support enough deep-layer shear for a mix of multicells and supercells initially. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds appear possible. A low-level jet is also forecast to strengthen Wednesday evening across eastern NE/KS into IA. Any supercell that can remain at surface based could also pose some threat for a tornado across this area given strengthening low-level shear Wednesday evening. Otherwise, a bowing cluster may eventually develop and pose more of a damaging wind threat as it spreads east-northeastward across the mid MO Valley Wednesday evening and overnight. Other strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible across a broader portion of the northern/central Plains, although instability is forecast to generally become weaker with northward and westward extent. Still, weak to locally moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear for modestly organized updrafts should exist across much of the warm sector Wednesday afternoon and evening. An isolated threat for both hail and strong to severe wind gusts remains apparent, and the Marginal Risk has been expanded in multiple areas to account for latest guidance trends in where strong to severe convection may develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS...EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley, with greater potential for large hail and damaging winds across parts of northeast Kansas, eastern Nebraska, southwest Iowa, and northwest Missouri. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... Thunderstorms that should be ongoing at the start of the period Wednesday morning across parts of the mid MO Valley should gradually decrease in coverage and intensity through the early afternoon as a southwesterly low-level jet and related warm advection slowly weakens. Upper ridging is forecast to remain prominent through the period across the lower MS Valley/Southeast into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Upstream, weak upper troughing is expected to become established over the northern/central Plains, with multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations forecast to move eastward across these regions. At the surface, a broad warm sector should be in place along/ahead of a weak front/lee trough. Most guidance suggests that multiple weak surface lows should generally consolidate over parts of central/eastern NE/KS by early Wednesday evening. Greater low-level moisture, characterized by upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints, should be in place across parts of the central Plains into the mid MO Valley. This moisture is forecast to advect northward in tandem with a sharpening warm front through the day, although considerable uncertainty still exists with how far north into IA the warm sector will be able to develop. Robust thunderstorms should develop by late Wednesday afternoon across parts of eastern NE and northeast KS in the vicinity of a weak surface low and triple point. Moderate to strong instability will likely be in place due to ample daytime heating of the rather moist airmass, along with somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates. Even though mid/upper-level flow is forecast to be only modestly enhanced, veering and gradual strengthening of the wind field with height should support enough deep-layer shear for a mix of multicells and supercells initially. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds appear possible. A low-level jet is also forecast to strengthen Wednesday evening across eastern NE/KS into IA. Any supercell that can remain at surface based could also pose some threat for a tornado across this area given strengthening low-level shear Wednesday evening. Otherwise, a bowing cluster may eventually develop and pose more of a damaging wind threat as it spreads east-northeastward across the mid MO Valley Wednesday evening and overnight. Other strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible across a broader portion of the northern/central Plains, although instability is forecast to generally become weaker with northward and westward extent. Still, weak to locally moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear for modestly organized updrafts should exist across much of the warm sector Wednesday afternoon and evening. An isolated threat for both hail and strong to severe wind gusts remains apparent, and the Marginal Risk has been expanded in multiple areas to account for latest guidance trends in where strong to severe convection may develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS...EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley, with greater potential for large hail and damaging winds across parts of northeast Kansas, eastern Nebraska, southwest Iowa, and northwest Missouri. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... Thunderstorms that should be ongoing at the start of the period Wednesday morning across parts of the mid MO Valley should gradually decrease in coverage and intensity through the early afternoon as a southwesterly low-level jet and related warm advection slowly weakens. Upper ridging is forecast to remain prominent through the period across the lower MS Valley/Southeast into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Upstream, weak upper troughing is expected to become established over the northern/central Plains, with multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations forecast to move eastward across these regions. At the surface, a broad warm sector should be in place along/ahead of a weak front/lee trough. Most guidance suggests that multiple weak surface lows should generally consolidate over parts of central/eastern NE/KS by early Wednesday evening. Greater low-level moisture, characterized by upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints, should be in place across parts of the central Plains into the mid MO Valley. This moisture is forecast to advect northward in tandem with a sharpening warm front through the day, although considerable uncertainty still exists with how far north into IA the warm sector will be able to develop. Robust thunderstorms should develop by late Wednesday afternoon across parts of eastern NE and northeast KS in the vicinity of a weak surface low and triple point. Moderate to strong instability will likely be in place due to ample daytime heating of the rather moist airmass, along with somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates. Even though mid/upper-level flow is forecast to be only modestly enhanced, veering and gradual strengthening of the wind field with height should support enough deep-layer shear for a mix of multicells and supercells initially. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds appear possible. A low-level jet is also forecast to strengthen Wednesday evening across eastern NE/KS into IA. Any supercell that can remain at surface based could also pose some threat for a tornado across this area given strengthening low-level shear Wednesday evening. Otherwise, a bowing cluster may eventually develop and pose more of a damaging wind threat as it spreads east-northeastward across the mid MO Valley Wednesday evening and overnight. Other strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible across a broader portion of the northern/central Plains, although instability is forecast to generally become weaker with northward and westward extent. Still, weak to locally moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear for modestly organized updrafts should exist across much of the warm sector Wednesday afternoon and evening. An isolated threat for both hail and strong to severe wind gusts remains apparent, and the Marginal Risk has been expanded in multiple areas to account for latest guidance trends in where strong to severe convection may develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS...EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley, with greater potential for large hail and damaging winds across parts of northeast Kansas, eastern Nebraska, southwest Iowa, and northwest Missouri. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... Thunderstorms that should be ongoing at the start of the period Wednesday morning across parts of the mid MO Valley should gradually decrease in coverage and intensity through the early afternoon as a southwesterly low-level jet and related warm advection slowly weakens. Upper ridging is forecast to remain prominent through the period across the lower MS Valley/Southeast into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Upstream, weak upper troughing is expected to become established over the northern/central Plains, with multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations forecast to move eastward across these regions. At the surface, a broad warm sector should be in place along/ahead of a weak front/lee trough. Most guidance suggests that multiple weak surface lows should generally consolidate over parts of central/eastern NE/KS by early Wednesday evening. Greater low-level moisture, characterized by upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints, should be in place across parts of the central Plains into the mid MO Valley. This moisture is forecast to advect northward in tandem with a sharpening warm front through the day, although considerable uncertainty still exists with how far north into IA the warm sector will be able to develop. Robust thunderstorms should develop by late Wednesday afternoon across parts of eastern NE and northeast KS in the vicinity of a weak surface low and triple point. Moderate to strong instability will likely be in place due to ample daytime heating of the rather moist airmass, along with somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates. Even though mid/upper-level flow is forecast to be only modestly enhanced, veering and gradual strengthening of the wind field with height should support enough deep-layer shear for a mix of multicells and supercells initially. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds appear possible. A low-level jet is also forecast to strengthen Wednesday evening across eastern NE/KS into IA. Any supercell that can remain at surface based could also pose some threat for a tornado across this area given strengthening low-level shear Wednesday evening. Otherwise, a bowing cluster may eventually develop and pose more of a damaging wind threat as it spreads east-northeastward across the mid MO Valley Wednesday evening and overnight. Other strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible across a broader portion of the northern/central Plains, although instability is forecast to generally become weaker with northward and westward extent. Still, weak to locally moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear for modestly organized updrafts should exist across much of the warm sector Wednesday afternoon and evening. An isolated threat for both hail and strong to severe wind gusts remains apparent, and the Marginal Risk has been expanded in multiple areas to account for latest guidance trends in where strong to severe convection may develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS...EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley, with greater potential for large hail and damaging winds across parts of northeast Kansas, eastern Nebraska, southwest Iowa, and northwest Missouri. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... Thunderstorms that should be ongoing at the start of the period Wednesday morning across parts of the mid MO Valley should gradually decrease in coverage and intensity through the early afternoon as a southwesterly low-level jet and related warm advection slowly weakens. Upper ridging is forecast to remain prominent through the period across the lower MS Valley/Southeast into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Upstream, weak upper troughing is expected to become established over the northern/central Plains, with multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations forecast to move eastward across these regions. At the surface, a broad warm sector should be in place along/ahead of a weak front/lee trough. Most guidance suggests that multiple weak surface lows should generally consolidate over parts of central/eastern NE/KS by early Wednesday evening. Greater low-level moisture, characterized by upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints, should be in place across parts of the central Plains into the mid MO Valley. This moisture is forecast to advect northward in tandem with a sharpening warm front through the day, although considerable uncertainty still exists with how far north into IA the warm sector will be able to develop. Robust thunderstorms should develop by late Wednesday afternoon across parts of eastern NE and northeast KS in the vicinity of a weak surface low and triple point. Moderate to strong instability will likely be in place due to ample daytime heating of the rather moist airmass, along with somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates. Even though mid/upper-level flow is forecast to be only modestly enhanced, veering and gradual strengthening of the wind field with height should support enough deep-layer shear for a mix of multicells and supercells initially. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds appear possible. A low-level jet is also forecast to strengthen Wednesday evening across eastern NE/KS into IA. Any supercell that can remain at surface based could also pose some threat for a tornado across this area given strengthening low-level shear Wednesday evening. Otherwise, a bowing cluster may eventually develop and pose more of a damaging wind threat as it spreads east-northeastward across the mid MO Valley Wednesday evening and overnight. Other strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible across a broader portion of the northern/central Plains, although instability is forecast to generally become weaker with northward and westward extent. Still, weak to locally moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear for modestly organized updrafts should exist across much of the warm sector Wednesday afternoon and evening. An isolated threat for both hail and strong to severe wind gusts remains apparent, and the Marginal Risk has been expanded in multiple areas to account for latest guidance trends in where strong to severe convection may develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS...EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley, with greater potential for large hail and damaging winds across parts of northeast Kansas, eastern Nebraska, southwest Iowa, and northwest Missouri. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... Thunderstorms that should be ongoing at the start of the period Wednesday morning across parts of the mid MO Valley should gradually decrease in coverage and intensity through the early afternoon as a southwesterly low-level jet and related warm advection slowly weakens. Upper ridging is forecast to remain prominent through the period across the lower MS Valley/Southeast into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Upstream, weak upper troughing is expected to become established over the northern/central Plains, with multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations forecast to move eastward across these regions. At the surface, a broad warm sector should be in place along/ahead of a weak front/lee trough. Most guidance suggests that multiple weak surface lows should generally consolidate over parts of central/eastern NE/KS by early Wednesday evening. Greater low-level moisture, characterized by upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints, should be in place across parts of the central Plains into the mid MO Valley. This moisture is forecast to advect northward in tandem with a sharpening warm front through the day, although considerable uncertainty still exists with how far north into IA the warm sector will be able to develop. Robust thunderstorms should develop by late Wednesday afternoon across parts of eastern NE and northeast KS in the vicinity of a weak surface low and triple point. Moderate to strong instability will likely be in place due to ample daytime heating of the rather moist airmass, along with somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates. Even though mid/upper-level flow is forecast to be only modestly enhanced, veering and gradual strengthening of the wind field with height should support enough deep-layer shear for a mix of multicells and supercells initially. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds appear possible. A low-level jet is also forecast to strengthen Wednesday evening across eastern NE/KS into IA. Any supercell that can remain at surface based could also pose some threat for a tornado across this area given strengthening low-level shear Wednesday evening. Otherwise, a bowing cluster may eventually develop and pose more of a damaging wind threat as it spreads east-northeastward across the mid MO Valley Wednesday evening and overnight. Other strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible across a broader portion of the northern/central Plains, although instability is forecast to generally become weaker with northward and westward extent. Still, weak to locally moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear for modestly organized updrafts should exist across much of the warm sector Wednesday afternoon and evening. An isolated threat for both hail and strong to severe wind gusts remains apparent, and the Marginal Risk has been expanded in multiple areas to account for latest guidance trends in where strong to severe convection may develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS...EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley, with greater potential for large hail and damaging winds across parts of northeast Kansas, eastern Nebraska, southwest Iowa, and northwest Missouri. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... Thunderstorms that should be ongoing at the start of the period Wednesday morning across parts of the mid MO Valley should gradually decrease in coverage and intensity through the early afternoon as a southwesterly low-level jet and related warm advection slowly weakens. Upper ridging is forecast to remain prominent through the period across the lower MS Valley/Southeast into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Upstream, weak upper troughing is expected to become established over the northern/central Plains, with multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations forecast to move eastward across these regions. At the surface, a broad warm sector should be in place along/ahead of a weak front/lee trough. Most guidance suggests that multiple weak surface lows should generally consolidate over parts of central/eastern NE/KS by early Wednesday evening. Greater low-level moisture, characterized by upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints, should be in place across parts of the central Plains into the mid MO Valley. This moisture is forecast to advect northward in tandem with a sharpening warm front through the day, although considerable uncertainty still exists with how far north into IA the warm sector will be able to develop. Robust thunderstorms should develop by late Wednesday afternoon across parts of eastern NE and northeast KS in the vicinity of a weak surface low and triple point. Moderate to strong instability will likely be in place due to ample daytime heating of the rather moist airmass, along with somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates. Even though mid/upper-level flow is forecast to be only modestly enhanced, veering and gradual strengthening of the wind field with height should support enough deep-layer shear for a mix of multicells and supercells initially. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds appear possible. A low-level jet is also forecast to strengthen Wednesday evening across eastern NE/KS into IA. Any supercell that can remain at surface based could also pose some threat for a tornado across this area given strengthening low-level shear Wednesday evening. Otherwise, a bowing cluster may eventually develop and pose more of a damaging wind threat as it spreads east-northeastward across the mid MO Valley Wednesday evening and overnight. Other strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible across a broader portion of the northern/central Plains, although instability is forecast to generally become weaker with northward and westward extent. Still, weak to locally moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear for modestly organized updrafts should exist across much of the warm sector Wednesday afternoon and evening. An isolated threat for both hail and strong to severe wind gusts remains apparent, and the Marginal Risk has been expanded in multiple areas to account for latest guidance trends in where strong to severe convection may develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS...EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley, with greater potential for large hail and damaging winds across parts of northeast Kansas, eastern Nebraska, southwest Iowa, and northwest Missouri. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... Thunderstorms that should be ongoing at the start of the period Wednesday morning across parts of the mid MO Valley should gradually decrease in coverage and intensity through the early afternoon as a southwesterly low-level jet and related warm advection slowly weakens. Upper ridging is forecast to remain prominent through the period across the lower MS Valley/Southeast into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Upstream, weak upper troughing is expected to become established over the northern/central Plains, with multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations forecast to move eastward across these regions. At the surface, a broad warm sector should be in place along/ahead of a weak front/lee trough. Most guidance suggests that multiple weak surface lows should generally consolidate over parts of central/eastern NE/KS by early Wednesday evening. Greater low-level moisture, characterized by upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints, should be in place across parts of the central Plains into the mid MO Valley. This moisture is forecast to advect northward in tandem with a sharpening warm front through the day, although considerable uncertainty still exists with how far north into IA the warm sector will be able to develop. Robust thunderstorms should develop by late Wednesday afternoon across parts of eastern NE and northeast KS in the vicinity of a weak surface low and triple point. Moderate to strong instability will likely be in place due to ample daytime heating of the rather moist airmass, along with somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates. Even though mid/upper-level flow is forecast to be only modestly enhanced, veering and gradual strengthening of the wind field with height should support enough deep-layer shear for a mix of multicells and supercells initially. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds appear possible. A low-level jet is also forecast to strengthen Wednesday evening across eastern NE/KS into IA. Any supercell that can remain at surface based could also pose some threat for a tornado across this area given strengthening low-level shear Wednesday evening. Otherwise, a bowing cluster may eventually develop and pose more of a damaging wind threat as it spreads east-northeastward across the mid MO Valley Wednesday evening and overnight. Other strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible across a broader portion of the northern/central Plains, although instability is forecast to generally become weaker with northward and westward extent. Still, weak to locally moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear for modestly organized updrafts should exist across much of the warm sector Wednesday afternoon and evening. An isolated threat for both hail and strong to severe wind gusts remains apparent, and the Marginal Risk has been expanded in multiple areas to account for latest guidance trends in where strong to severe convection may develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS...EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley, with greater potential for large hail and damaging winds across parts of northeast Kansas, eastern Nebraska, southwest Iowa, and northwest Missouri. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... Thunderstorms that should be ongoing at the start of the period Wednesday morning across parts of the mid MO Valley should gradually decrease in coverage and intensity through the early afternoon as a southwesterly low-level jet and related warm advection slowly weakens. Upper ridging is forecast to remain prominent through the period across the lower MS Valley/Southeast into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Upstream, weak upper troughing is expected to become established over the northern/central Plains, with multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations forecast to move eastward across these regions. At the surface, a broad warm sector should be in place along/ahead of a weak front/lee trough. Most guidance suggests that multiple weak surface lows should generally consolidate over parts of central/eastern NE/KS by early Wednesday evening. Greater low-level moisture, characterized by upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints, should be in place across parts of the central Plains into the mid MO Valley. This moisture is forecast to advect northward in tandem with a sharpening warm front through the day, although considerable uncertainty still exists with how far north into IA the warm sector will be able to develop. Robust thunderstorms should develop by late Wednesday afternoon across parts of eastern NE and northeast KS in the vicinity of a weak surface low and triple point. Moderate to strong instability will likely be in place due to ample daytime heating of the rather moist airmass, along with somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates. Even though mid/upper-level flow is forecast to be only modestly enhanced, veering and gradual strengthening of the wind field with height should support enough deep-layer shear for a mix of multicells and supercells initially. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds appear possible. A low-level jet is also forecast to strengthen Wednesday evening across eastern NE/KS into IA. Any supercell that can remain at surface based could also pose some threat for a tornado across this area given strengthening low-level shear Wednesday evening. Otherwise, a bowing cluster may eventually develop and pose more of a damaging wind threat as it spreads east-northeastward across the mid MO Valley Wednesday evening and overnight. Other strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible across a broader portion of the northern/central Plains, although instability is forecast to generally become weaker with northward and westward extent. Still, weak to locally moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear for modestly organized updrafts should exist across much of the warm sector Wednesday afternoon and evening. An isolated threat for both hail and strong to severe wind gusts remains apparent, and the Marginal Risk has been expanded in multiple areas to account for latest guidance trends in where strong to severe convection may develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS...EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley, with greater potential for large hail and damaging winds across parts of northeast Kansas, eastern Nebraska, southwest Iowa, and northwest Missouri. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... Thunderstorms that should be ongoing at the start of the period Wednesday morning across parts of the mid MO Valley should gradually decrease in coverage and intensity through the early afternoon as a southwesterly low-level jet and related warm advection slowly weakens. Upper ridging is forecast to remain prominent through the period across the lower MS Valley/Southeast into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Upstream, weak upper troughing is expected to become established over the northern/central Plains, with multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations forecast to move eastward across these regions. At the surface, a broad warm sector should be in place along/ahead of a weak front/lee trough. Most guidance suggests that multiple weak surface lows should generally consolidate over parts of central/eastern NE/KS by early Wednesday evening. Greater low-level moisture, characterized by upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints, should be in place across parts of the central Plains into the mid MO Valley. This moisture is forecast to advect northward in tandem with a sharpening warm front through the day, although considerable uncertainty still exists with how far north into IA the warm sector will be able to develop. Robust thunderstorms should develop by late Wednesday afternoon across parts of eastern NE and northeast KS in the vicinity of a weak surface low and triple point. Moderate to strong instability will likely be in place due to ample daytime heating of the rather moist airmass, along with somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates. Even though mid/upper-level flow is forecast to be only modestly enhanced, veering and gradual strengthening of the wind field with height should support enough deep-layer shear for a mix of multicells and supercells initially. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds appear possible. A low-level jet is also forecast to strengthen Wednesday evening across eastern NE/KS into IA. Any supercell that can remain at surface based could also pose some threat for a tornado across this area given strengthening low-level shear Wednesday evening. Otherwise, a bowing cluster may eventually develop and pose more of a damaging wind threat as it spreads east-northeastward across the mid MO Valley Wednesday evening and overnight. Other strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible across a broader portion of the northern/central Plains, although instability is forecast to generally become weaker with northward and westward extent. Still, weak to locally moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear for modestly organized updrafts should exist across much of the warm sector Wednesday afternoon and evening. An isolated threat for both hail and strong to severe wind gusts remains apparent, and the Marginal Risk has been expanded in multiple areas to account for latest guidance trends in where strong to severe convection may develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more