Severe Storms

WW 498 SEVERE TSTM IL KS MO 022140Z - 030500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 498 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far West-Central Illinois Eastern Kansas West-Central and Northern Missouri * Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 440 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop through the early to mid evening across the Watch area. A few of the stronger storms may evolve into supercells, in addition to organized line segments. A tornado is possible with any intense supercell or embedded circulation within a convective line, but the primary forecast hazards will be 60-75 mph gusts capable of wind damage and large hail (1 to 2 inches in diameter). The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles northwest of Emporia KS to 25 miles north northeast of Quincy IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 497... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Smith Read more

WW 0497 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 497 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE STJ TO 45 E LWD TO 15 SE OTM TO 30 ENE OTM TO 25 SE CID TO 40 NW DBQ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1513 ..MOORE..07/02/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 497 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC015-067-071-073-085-109-131-161-187-195-030040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY JO DAVIESS MCDONOUGH MERCER ROCK ISLAND WARREN WHITESIDE IAC007-031-045-051-057-087-097-101-105-111-115-139-163-177-183- 030040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPANOOSE CEDAR CLINTON DAVIS DES MOINES HENRY JACKSON JEFFERSON JONES LEE LOUISA MUSCATINE SCOTT VAN BUREN WASHINGTON Read more

WW 497 TORNADO IA IL MO 022010Z - 030200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 497 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 310 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern, Central, and Eastern Iowa Northwest Illinois Northern Missouri * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 310 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to strengthen this afternoon and evening while posing a threat for a couple of tornadoes and large hail generally 1-1.75 inches in diameter. Scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds up to around 60-70 mph will likely become the primary threat by this evening as thunderstorms grow into a bowing cluster. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of Lamoni IA to 40 miles northeast of Moline IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1513 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 497... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI...EXTREME WESTERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1513 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0513 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Iowa into extreme northeastern Missouri...extreme western Illinois Concerning...Tornado Watch 497... Valid 022213Z - 022345Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 497 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 497. Severe gusts and QLCS tornadoes are possible with an MCS over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...A mature QLCS is moving eastward across eastern Iowa into far northern MO amid strong deep-layer shear and buoyancy (i.e. 50-60 kts of effective bulk shear and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). On the MCS leading line, multiple mesovortices have developed, showing up to 40 kt rotational velocities, suggesting that low-level circulations are strong enough to support damaging gusts and potential tornadogenesis. The DVN VAD profiler shows an appreciably large and curved hodograph, with over 300 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH, which would certainly support additional tornado potential when also considering ample available buoyancy. At the moment, southeastern Iowa, which is the near the apex of the bowing QLCS, has the best short-term tornado potential. ..Squitieri.. 07/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 40369321 41219225 41649193 42259151 42449102 42439032 42178992 41758982 41338994 40749043 40439095 40239200 40169278 40369321 Read more

WW 499 SEVERE TSTM KS OK 022200Z - 030300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 499 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 500 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South-Central Kansas Northern Oklahoma * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 500 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A cluster or two of thunderstorms will move east-northeast across the Watch area through the evening. Some of the stronger downdrafts will be capable of severe gusts (60-70 mph). The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Emporia KS to 30 miles west southwest of Ponca City OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 497...WW 498... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Smith Read more

MD 1512 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1512 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Areas affected...far northern Oklahoma...portions of south-central/central and northeastern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 022054Z - 022300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of thunderstorm activity is expected to continue through the late afternoon/evening, posing a risk for mainly damaging wind. DISCUSSION...A southeastward moving cold front will be the focus for additional thunderstorm development across far northern Oklahoma into central and northeastern Kansas this afternoon. Daytime heating has led to temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s across much of this region, with dew points in the upper 60s to 70s and MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg in mesoanalysis. Given the best shear is largely north of the cold front, mode is expected to be loosely organized clusters. Steep low-level lapse rates and deeply mixed profiles will support a risk for mainly damaging winds. A watch may be needed for part of this region to cover this threat in the next 1-2 hours. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 07/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 37609986 38429886 39459728 39819629 39629573 39469559 39119533 38279608 37039817 36839869 36929932 37009977 37079991 37409990 37609986 Read more

WW 0497 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 497 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE STJ TO 30 ENE LWD TO 30 ESE ALO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1513 ..SQUITIERI..07/02/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 497 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC015-067-071-073-085-109-131-161-187-195-022340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY JO DAVIESS MCDONOUGH MERCER ROCK ISLAND WARREN WHITESIDE IAC007-011-031-045-051-057-087-095-097-101-103-105-107-111-113- 115-123-135-139-163-177-179-183-022340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPANOOSE BENTON CEDAR CLINTON DAVIS DES MOINES HENRY IOWA JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON JONES KEOKUK LEE LINN LOUISA MAHASKA MONROE Read more

WW 0499 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0499 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An unusually strong ridge of high pressure will dominate the West Coast synoptic pattern through the extended forecast period. 600 DAM 500 mb heights will allow for extreme heat and very dry surface conditions to develop over much of the Southwest and Great Basin. Several weak upper troughs will move along the eastern edge of the ridge supporting occasional stronger surface winds and some fire danger. Otherwise, modest synoptic winds will occur under the ridge over much of the West, with near record temperatures and rapid drying of fuels likely. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the strong ridge of high pressure intensifies this week, several modest perturbations will move around the top and eastern periphery of the ridge over the Northwest and northern Great Basin late in the week and into the weekend. With several days of hot and very dry conditions expected prior, gusty downslope winds of 15-25 mph could support localized fire-weather concerns across the lee of the Cascades and western Columbia Basin D3/Thursday and D4/Friday. Confidence in the coverage of stronger winds and uncertainties in fuel availability will preclude probabilities for now. More significant fire-weather concerns appear likely this weekend as the upper trough and associated jet streak move south into the Great Basin. A wind shift at the surface will accompany the upper trough as breezy northwest surface winds to 20-25 mph develop behind it across parts of southern ID, northern NV and western UT D5/Saturday. Very warm temperatures and low RH of 10-15% will precede the increase in winds, supporting an increased risk for critical fire-weather conditions. D6/Sunday and beyond, confidence in the evolution of the upper ridge and the associated synoptic pattern decreases substantially. Some risk for dry and breezy conditions may continue with northwesterly flow aloft across parts of the Southwest and Great Basin. However, the spatial coverage and uncertainties in fuels lend low confidence in the potential for critical fire-weather conditions at this time. ...Southern CA... Periodic offshore and terrain-enhanced flow is expected over parts of southern CA late this week. South of the ridge of high pressure, light easterly mid-level winds are expected to overspread the Desert Southwest and southern CA. While weak, somewhat enhanced low-level pressure gradients may support a few hours of breezy downslope winds near 20-25 mph overnight D3/Thursday through D5/Friday. With very hot and dry conditions likely beneath the ridge, localized near-critical fire-weather conditions may occur with these weak Sundowner winds and across parts of the southern CA Valleys. Winds should dissipate this weekend as the upper ridge shifts eastward and the weak upper-level support lessens. ..Lyons/Halbert.. 07/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An unusually strong ridge of high pressure will dominate the West Coast synoptic pattern through the extended forecast period. 600 DAM 500 mb heights will allow for extreme heat and very dry surface conditions to develop over much of the Southwest and Great Basin. Several weak upper troughs will move along the eastern edge of the ridge supporting occasional stronger surface winds and some fire danger. Otherwise, modest synoptic winds will occur under the ridge over much of the West, with near record temperatures and rapid drying of fuels likely. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the strong ridge of high pressure intensifies this week, several modest perturbations will move around the top and eastern periphery of the ridge over the Northwest and northern Great Basin late in the week and into the weekend. With several days of hot and very dry conditions expected prior, gusty downslope winds of 15-25 mph could support localized fire-weather concerns across the lee of the Cascades and western Columbia Basin D3/Thursday and D4/Friday. Confidence in the coverage of stronger winds and uncertainties in fuel availability will preclude probabilities for now. More significant fire-weather concerns appear likely this weekend as the upper trough and associated jet streak move south into the Great Basin. A wind shift at the surface will accompany the upper trough as breezy northwest surface winds to 20-25 mph develop behind it across parts of southern ID, northern NV and western UT D5/Saturday. Very warm temperatures and low RH of 10-15% will precede the increase in winds, supporting an increased risk for critical fire-weather conditions. D6/Sunday and beyond, confidence in the evolution of the upper ridge and the associated synoptic pattern decreases substantially. Some risk for dry and breezy conditions may continue with northwesterly flow aloft across parts of the Southwest and Great Basin. However, the spatial coverage and uncertainties in fuels lend low confidence in the potential for critical fire-weather conditions at this time. ...Southern CA... Periodic offshore and terrain-enhanced flow is expected over parts of southern CA late this week. South of the ridge of high pressure, light easterly mid-level winds are expected to overspread the Desert Southwest and southern CA. While weak, somewhat enhanced low-level pressure gradients may support a few hours of breezy downslope winds near 20-25 mph overnight D3/Thursday through D5/Friday. With very hot and dry conditions likely beneath the ridge, localized near-critical fire-weather conditions may occur with these weak Sundowner winds and across parts of the southern CA Valleys. Winds should dissipate this weekend as the upper ridge shifts eastward and the weak upper-level support lessens. ..Lyons/Halbert.. 07/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An unusually strong ridge of high pressure will dominate the West Coast synoptic pattern through the extended forecast period. 600 DAM 500 mb heights will allow for extreme heat and very dry surface conditions to develop over much of the Southwest and Great Basin. Several weak upper troughs will move along the eastern edge of the ridge supporting occasional stronger surface winds and some fire danger. Otherwise, modest synoptic winds will occur under the ridge over much of the West, with near record temperatures and rapid drying of fuels likely. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the strong ridge of high pressure intensifies this week, several modest perturbations will move around the top and eastern periphery of the ridge over the Northwest and northern Great Basin late in the week and into the weekend. With several days of hot and very dry conditions expected prior, gusty downslope winds of 15-25 mph could support localized fire-weather concerns across the lee of the Cascades and western Columbia Basin D3/Thursday and D4/Friday. Confidence in the coverage of stronger winds and uncertainties in fuel availability will preclude probabilities for now. More significant fire-weather concerns appear likely this weekend as the upper trough and associated jet streak move south into the Great Basin. A wind shift at the surface will accompany the upper trough as breezy northwest surface winds to 20-25 mph develop behind it across parts of southern ID, northern NV and western UT D5/Saturday. Very warm temperatures and low RH of 10-15% will precede the increase in winds, supporting an increased risk for critical fire-weather conditions. D6/Sunday and beyond, confidence in the evolution of the upper ridge and the associated synoptic pattern decreases substantially. Some risk for dry and breezy conditions may continue with northwesterly flow aloft across parts of the Southwest and Great Basin. However, the spatial coverage and uncertainties in fuels lend low confidence in the potential for critical fire-weather conditions at this time. ...Southern CA... Periodic offshore and terrain-enhanced flow is expected over parts of southern CA late this week. South of the ridge of high pressure, light easterly mid-level winds are expected to overspread the Desert Southwest and southern CA. While weak, somewhat enhanced low-level pressure gradients may support a few hours of breezy downslope winds near 20-25 mph overnight D3/Thursday through D5/Friday. With very hot and dry conditions likely beneath the ridge, localized near-critical fire-weather conditions may occur with these weak Sundowner winds and across parts of the southern CA Valleys. Winds should dissipate this weekend as the upper ridge shifts eastward and the weak upper-level support lessens. ..Lyons/Halbert.. 07/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An unusually strong ridge of high pressure will dominate the West Coast synoptic pattern through the extended forecast period. 600 DAM 500 mb heights will allow for extreme heat and very dry surface conditions to develop over much of the Southwest and Great Basin. Several weak upper troughs will move along the eastern edge of the ridge supporting occasional stronger surface winds and some fire danger. Otherwise, modest synoptic winds will occur under the ridge over much of the West, with near record temperatures and rapid drying of fuels likely. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the strong ridge of high pressure intensifies this week, several modest perturbations will move around the top and eastern periphery of the ridge over the Northwest and northern Great Basin late in the week and into the weekend. With several days of hot and very dry conditions expected prior, gusty downslope winds of 15-25 mph could support localized fire-weather concerns across the lee of the Cascades and western Columbia Basin D3/Thursday and D4/Friday. Confidence in the coverage of stronger winds and uncertainties in fuel availability will preclude probabilities for now. More significant fire-weather concerns appear likely this weekend as the upper trough and associated jet streak move south into the Great Basin. A wind shift at the surface will accompany the upper trough as breezy northwest surface winds to 20-25 mph develop behind it across parts of southern ID, northern NV and western UT D5/Saturday. Very warm temperatures and low RH of 10-15% will precede the increase in winds, supporting an increased risk for critical fire-weather conditions. D6/Sunday and beyond, confidence in the evolution of the upper ridge and the associated synoptic pattern decreases substantially. Some risk for dry and breezy conditions may continue with northwesterly flow aloft across parts of the Southwest and Great Basin. However, the spatial coverage and uncertainties in fuels lend low confidence in the potential for critical fire-weather conditions at this time. ...Southern CA... Periodic offshore and terrain-enhanced flow is expected over parts of southern CA late this week. South of the ridge of high pressure, light easterly mid-level winds are expected to overspread the Desert Southwest and southern CA. While weak, somewhat enhanced low-level pressure gradients may support a few hours of breezy downslope winds near 20-25 mph overnight D3/Thursday through D5/Friday. With very hot and dry conditions likely beneath the ridge, localized near-critical fire-weather conditions may occur with these weak Sundowner winds and across parts of the southern CA Valleys. Winds should dissipate this weekend as the upper ridge shifts eastward and the weak upper-level support lessens. ..Lyons/Halbert.. 07/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An unusually strong ridge of high pressure will dominate the West Coast synoptic pattern through the extended forecast period. 600 DAM 500 mb heights will allow for extreme heat and very dry surface conditions to develop over much of the Southwest and Great Basin. Several weak upper troughs will move along the eastern edge of the ridge supporting occasional stronger surface winds and some fire danger. Otherwise, modest synoptic winds will occur under the ridge over much of the West, with near record temperatures and rapid drying of fuels likely. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the strong ridge of high pressure intensifies this week, several modest perturbations will move around the top and eastern periphery of the ridge over the Northwest and northern Great Basin late in the week and into the weekend. With several days of hot and very dry conditions expected prior, gusty downslope winds of 15-25 mph could support localized fire-weather concerns across the lee of the Cascades and western Columbia Basin D3/Thursday and D4/Friday. Confidence in the coverage of stronger winds and uncertainties in fuel availability will preclude probabilities for now. More significant fire-weather concerns appear likely this weekend as the upper trough and associated jet streak move south into the Great Basin. A wind shift at the surface will accompany the upper trough as breezy northwest surface winds to 20-25 mph develop behind it across parts of southern ID, northern NV and western UT D5/Saturday. Very warm temperatures and low RH of 10-15% will precede the increase in winds, supporting an increased risk for critical fire-weather conditions. D6/Sunday and beyond, confidence in the evolution of the upper ridge and the associated synoptic pattern decreases substantially. Some risk for dry and breezy conditions may continue with northwesterly flow aloft across parts of the Southwest and Great Basin. However, the spatial coverage and uncertainties in fuels lend low confidence in the potential for critical fire-weather conditions at this time. ...Southern CA... Periodic offshore and terrain-enhanced flow is expected over parts of southern CA late this week. South of the ridge of high pressure, light easterly mid-level winds are expected to overspread the Desert Southwest and southern CA. While weak, somewhat enhanced low-level pressure gradients may support a few hours of breezy downslope winds near 20-25 mph overnight D3/Thursday through D5/Friday. With very hot and dry conditions likely beneath the ridge, localized near-critical fire-weather conditions may occur with these weak Sundowner winds and across parts of the southern CA Valleys. Winds should dissipate this weekend as the upper ridge shifts eastward and the weak upper-level support lessens. ..Lyons/Halbert.. 07/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An unusually strong ridge of high pressure will dominate the West Coast synoptic pattern through the extended forecast period. 600 DAM 500 mb heights will allow for extreme heat and very dry surface conditions to develop over much of the Southwest and Great Basin. Several weak upper troughs will move along the eastern edge of the ridge supporting occasional stronger surface winds and some fire danger. Otherwise, modest synoptic winds will occur under the ridge over much of the West, with near record temperatures and rapid drying of fuels likely. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the strong ridge of high pressure intensifies this week, several modest perturbations will move around the top and eastern periphery of the ridge over the Northwest and northern Great Basin late in the week and into the weekend. With several days of hot and very dry conditions expected prior, gusty downslope winds of 15-25 mph could support localized fire-weather concerns across the lee of the Cascades and western Columbia Basin D3/Thursday and D4/Friday. Confidence in the coverage of stronger winds and uncertainties in fuel availability will preclude probabilities for now. More significant fire-weather concerns appear likely this weekend as the upper trough and associated jet streak move south into the Great Basin. A wind shift at the surface will accompany the upper trough as breezy northwest surface winds to 20-25 mph develop behind it across parts of southern ID, northern NV and western UT D5/Saturday. Very warm temperatures and low RH of 10-15% will precede the increase in winds, supporting an increased risk for critical fire-weather conditions. D6/Sunday and beyond, confidence in the evolution of the upper ridge and the associated synoptic pattern decreases substantially. Some risk for dry and breezy conditions may continue with northwesterly flow aloft across parts of the Southwest and Great Basin. However, the spatial coverage and uncertainties in fuels lend low confidence in the potential for critical fire-weather conditions at this time. ...Southern CA... Periodic offshore and terrain-enhanced flow is expected over parts of southern CA late this week. South of the ridge of high pressure, light easterly mid-level winds are expected to overspread the Desert Southwest and southern CA. While weak, somewhat enhanced low-level pressure gradients may support a few hours of breezy downslope winds near 20-25 mph overnight D3/Thursday through D5/Friday. With very hot and dry conditions likely beneath the ridge, localized near-critical fire-weather conditions may occur with these weak Sundowner winds and across parts of the southern CA Valleys. Winds should dissipate this weekend as the upper ridge shifts eastward and the weak upper-level support lessens. ..Lyons/Halbert.. 07/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An unusually strong ridge of high pressure will dominate the West Coast synoptic pattern through the extended forecast period. 600 DAM 500 mb heights will allow for extreme heat and very dry surface conditions to develop over much of the Southwest and Great Basin. Several weak upper troughs will move along the eastern edge of the ridge supporting occasional stronger surface winds and some fire danger. Otherwise, modest synoptic winds will occur under the ridge over much of the West, with near record temperatures and rapid drying of fuels likely. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the strong ridge of high pressure intensifies this week, several modest perturbations will move around the top and eastern periphery of the ridge over the Northwest and northern Great Basin late in the week and into the weekend. With several days of hot and very dry conditions expected prior, gusty downslope winds of 15-25 mph could support localized fire-weather concerns across the lee of the Cascades and western Columbia Basin D3/Thursday and D4/Friday. Confidence in the coverage of stronger winds and uncertainties in fuel availability will preclude probabilities for now. More significant fire-weather concerns appear likely this weekend as the upper trough and associated jet streak move south into the Great Basin. A wind shift at the surface will accompany the upper trough as breezy northwest surface winds to 20-25 mph develop behind it across parts of southern ID, northern NV and western UT D5/Saturday. Very warm temperatures and low RH of 10-15% will precede the increase in winds, supporting an increased risk for critical fire-weather conditions. D6/Sunday and beyond, confidence in the evolution of the upper ridge and the associated synoptic pattern decreases substantially. Some risk for dry and breezy conditions may continue with northwesterly flow aloft across parts of the Southwest and Great Basin. However, the spatial coverage and uncertainties in fuels lend low confidence in the potential for critical fire-weather conditions at this time. ...Southern CA... Periodic offshore and terrain-enhanced flow is expected over parts of southern CA late this week. South of the ridge of high pressure, light easterly mid-level winds are expected to overspread the Desert Southwest and southern CA. While weak, somewhat enhanced low-level pressure gradients may support a few hours of breezy downslope winds near 20-25 mph overnight D3/Thursday through D5/Friday. With very hot and dry conditions likely beneath the ridge, localized near-critical fire-weather conditions may occur with these weak Sundowner winds and across parts of the southern CA Valleys. Winds should dissipate this weekend as the upper ridge shifts eastward and the weak upper-level support lessens. ..Lyons/Halbert.. 07/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An unusually strong ridge of high pressure will dominate the West Coast synoptic pattern through the extended forecast period. 600 DAM 500 mb heights will allow for extreme heat and very dry surface conditions to develop over much of the Southwest and Great Basin. Several weak upper troughs will move along the eastern edge of the ridge supporting occasional stronger surface winds and some fire danger. Otherwise, modest synoptic winds will occur under the ridge over much of the West, with near record temperatures and rapid drying of fuels likely. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the strong ridge of high pressure intensifies this week, several modest perturbations will move around the top and eastern periphery of the ridge over the Northwest and northern Great Basin late in the week and into the weekend. With several days of hot and very dry conditions expected prior, gusty downslope winds of 15-25 mph could support localized fire-weather concerns across the lee of the Cascades and western Columbia Basin D3/Thursday and D4/Friday. Confidence in the coverage of stronger winds and uncertainties in fuel availability will preclude probabilities for now. More significant fire-weather concerns appear likely this weekend as the upper trough and associated jet streak move south into the Great Basin. A wind shift at the surface will accompany the upper trough as breezy northwest surface winds to 20-25 mph develop behind it across parts of southern ID, northern NV and western UT D5/Saturday. Very warm temperatures and low RH of 10-15% will precede the increase in winds, supporting an increased risk for critical fire-weather conditions. D6/Sunday and beyond, confidence in the evolution of the upper ridge and the associated synoptic pattern decreases substantially. Some risk for dry and breezy conditions may continue with northwesterly flow aloft across parts of the Southwest and Great Basin. However, the spatial coverage and uncertainties in fuels lend low confidence in the potential for critical fire-weather conditions at this time. ...Southern CA... Periodic offshore and terrain-enhanced flow is expected over parts of southern CA late this week. South of the ridge of high pressure, light easterly mid-level winds are expected to overspread the Desert Southwest and southern CA. While weak, somewhat enhanced low-level pressure gradients may support a few hours of breezy downslope winds near 20-25 mph overnight D3/Thursday through D5/Friday. With very hot and dry conditions likely beneath the ridge, localized near-critical fire-weather conditions may occur with these weak Sundowner winds and across parts of the southern CA Valleys. Winds should dissipate this weekend as the upper ridge shifts eastward and the weak upper-level support lessens. ..Lyons/Halbert.. 07/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An unusually strong ridge of high pressure will dominate the West Coast synoptic pattern through the extended forecast period. 600 DAM 500 mb heights will allow for extreme heat and very dry surface conditions to develop over much of the Southwest and Great Basin. Several weak upper troughs will move along the eastern edge of the ridge supporting occasional stronger surface winds and some fire danger. Otherwise, modest synoptic winds will occur under the ridge over much of the West, with near record temperatures and rapid drying of fuels likely. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the strong ridge of high pressure intensifies this week, several modest perturbations will move around the top and eastern periphery of the ridge over the Northwest and northern Great Basin late in the week and into the weekend. With several days of hot and very dry conditions expected prior, gusty downslope winds of 15-25 mph could support localized fire-weather concerns across the lee of the Cascades and western Columbia Basin D3/Thursday and D4/Friday. Confidence in the coverage of stronger winds and uncertainties in fuel availability will preclude probabilities for now. More significant fire-weather concerns appear likely this weekend as the upper trough and associated jet streak move south into the Great Basin. A wind shift at the surface will accompany the upper trough as breezy northwest surface winds to 20-25 mph develop behind it across parts of southern ID, northern NV and western UT D5/Saturday. Very warm temperatures and low RH of 10-15% will precede the increase in winds, supporting an increased risk for critical fire-weather conditions. D6/Sunday and beyond, confidence in the evolution of the upper ridge and the associated synoptic pattern decreases substantially. Some risk for dry and breezy conditions may continue with northwesterly flow aloft across parts of the Southwest and Great Basin. However, the spatial coverage and uncertainties in fuels lend low confidence in the potential for critical fire-weather conditions at this time. ...Southern CA... Periodic offshore and terrain-enhanced flow is expected over parts of southern CA late this week. South of the ridge of high pressure, light easterly mid-level winds are expected to overspread the Desert Southwest and southern CA. While weak, somewhat enhanced low-level pressure gradients may support a few hours of breezy downslope winds near 20-25 mph overnight D3/Thursday through D5/Friday. With very hot and dry conditions likely beneath the ridge, localized near-critical fire-weather conditions may occur with these weak Sundowner winds and across parts of the southern CA Valleys. Winds should dissipate this weekend as the upper ridge shifts eastward and the weak upper-level support lessens. ..Lyons/Halbert.. 07/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An unusually strong ridge of high pressure will dominate the West Coast synoptic pattern through the extended forecast period. 600 DAM 500 mb heights will allow for extreme heat and very dry surface conditions to develop over much of the Southwest and Great Basin. Several weak upper troughs will move along the eastern edge of the ridge supporting occasional stronger surface winds and some fire danger. Otherwise, modest synoptic winds will occur under the ridge over much of the West, with near record temperatures and rapid drying of fuels likely. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the strong ridge of high pressure intensifies this week, several modest perturbations will move around the top and eastern periphery of the ridge over the Northwest and northern Great Basin late in the week and into the weekend. With several days of hot and very dry conditions expected prior, gusty downslope winds of 15-25 mph could support localized fire-weather concerns across the lee of the Cascades and western Columbia Basin D3/Thursday and D4/Friday. Confidence in the coverage of stronger winds and uncertainties in fuel availability will preclude probabilities for now. More significant fire-weather concerns appear likely this weekend as the upper trough and associated jet streak move south into the Great Basin. A wind shift at the surface will accompany the upper trough as breezy northwest surface winds to 20-25 mph develop behind it across parts of southern ID, northern NV and western UT D5/Saturday. Very warm temperatures and low RH of 10-15% will precede the increase in winds, supporting an increased risk for critical fire-weather conditions. D6/Sunday and beyond, confidence in the evolution of the upper ridge and the associated synoptic pattern decreases substantially. Some risk for dry and breezy conditions may continue with northwesterly flow aloft across parts of the Southwest and Great Basin. However, the spatial coverage and uncertainties in fuels lend low confidence in the potential for critical fire-weather conditions at this time. ...Southern CA... Periodic offshore and terrain-enhanced flow is expected over parts of southern CA late this week. South of the ridge of high pressure, light easterly mid-level winds are expected to overspread the Desert Southwest and southern CA. While weak, somewhat enhanced low-level pressure gradients may support a few hours of breezy downslope winds near 20-25 mph overnight D3/Thursday through D5/Friday. With very hot and dry conditions likely beneath the ridge, localized near-critical fire-weather conditions may occur with these weak Sundowner winds and across parts of the southern CA Valleys. Winds should dissipate this weekend as the upper ridge shifts eastward and the weak upper-level support lessens. ..Lyons/Halbert.. 07/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An unusually strong ridge of high pressure will dominate the West Coast synoptic pattern through the extended forecast period. 600 DAM 500 mb heights will allow for extreme heat and very dry surface conditions to develop over much of the Southwest and Great Basin. Several weak upper troughs will move along the eastern edge of the ridge supporting occasional stronger surface winds and some fire danger. Otherwise, modest synoptic winds will occur under the ridge over much of the West, with near record temperatures and rapid drying of fuels likely. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the strong ridge of high pressure intensifies this week, several modest perturbations will move around the top and eastern periphery of the ridge over the Northwest and northern Great Basin late in the week and into the weekend. With several days of hot and very dry conditions expected prior, gusty downslope winds of 15-25 mph could support localized fire-weather concerns across the lee of the Cascades and western Columbia Basin D3/Thursday and D4/Friday. Confidence in the coverage of stronger winds and uncertainties in fuel availability will preclude probabilities for now. More significant fire-weather concerns appear likely this weekend as the upper trough and associated jet streak move south into the Great Basin. A wind shift at the surface will accompany the upper trough as breezy northwest surface winds to 20-25 mph develop behind it across parts of southern ID, northern NV and western UT D5/Saturday. Very warm temperatures and low RH of 10-15% will precede the increase in winds, supporting an increased risk for critical fire-weather conditions. D6/Sunday and beyond, confidence in the evolution of the upper ridge and the associated synoptic pattern decreases substantially. Some risk for dry and breezy conditions may continue with northwesterly flow aloft across parts of the Southwest and Great Basin. However, the spatial coverage and uncertainties in fuels lend low confidence in the potential for critical fire-weather conditions at this time. ...Southern CA... Periodic offshore and terrain-enhanced flow is expected over parts of southern CA late this week. South of the ridge of high pressure, light easterly mid-level winds are expected to overspread the Desert Southwest and southern CA. While weak, somewhat enhanced low-level pressure gradients may support a few hours of breezy downslope winds near 20-25 mph overnight D3/Thursday through D5/Friday. With very hot and dry conditions likely beneath the ridge, localized near-critical fire-weather conditions may occur with these weak Sundowner winds and across parts of the southern CA Valleys. Winds should dissipate this weekend as the upper ridge shifts eastward and the weak upper-level support lessens. ..Lyons/Halbert.. 07/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An unusually strong ridge of high pressure will dominate the West Coast synoptic pattern through the extended forecast period. 600 DAM 500 mb heights will allow for extreme heat and very dry surface conditions to develop over much of the Southwest and Great Basin. Several weak upper troughs will move along the eastern edge of the ridge supporting occasional stronger surface winds and some fire danger. Otherwise, modest synoptic winds will occur under the ridge over much of the West, with near record temperatures and rapid drying of fuels likely. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the strong ridge of high pressure intensifies this week, several modest perturbations will move around the top and eastern periphery of the ridge over the Northwest and northern Great Basin late in the week and into the weekend. With several days of hot and very dry conditions expected prior, gusty downslope winds of 15-25 mph could support localized fire-weather concerns across the lee of the Cascades and western Columbia Basin D3/Thursday and D4/Friday. Confidence in the coverage of stronger winds and uncertainties in fuel availability will preclude probabilities for now. More significant fire-weather concerns appear likely this weekend as the upper trough and associated jet streak move south into the Great Basin. A wind shift at the surface will accompany the upper trough as breezy northwest surface winds to 20-25 mph develop behind it across parts of southern ID, northern NV and western UT D5/Saturday. Very warm temperatures and low RH of 10-15% will precede the increase in winds, supporting an increased risk for critical fire-weather conditions. D6/Sunday and beyond, confidence in the evolution of the upper ridge and the associated synoptic pattern decreases substantially. Some risk for dry and breezy conditions may continue with northwesterly flow aloft across parts of the Southwest and Great Basin. However, the spatial coverage and uncertainties in fuels lend low confidence in the potential for critical fire-weather conditions at this time. ...Southern CA... Periodic offshore and terrain-enhanced flow is expected over parts of southern CA late this week. South of the ridge of high pressure, light easterly mid-level winds are expected to overspread the Desert Southwest and southern CA. While weak, somewhat enhanced low-level pressure gradients may support a few hours of breezy downslope winds near 20-25 mph overnight D3/Thursday through D5/Friday. With very hot and dry conditions likely beneath the ridge, localized near-critical fire-weather conditions may occur with these weak Sundowner winds and across parts of the southern CA Valleys. Winds should dissipate this weekend as the upper ridge shifts eastward and the weak upper-level support lessens. ..Lyons/Halbert.. 07/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more